Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies

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Demography, education and international migration in

the Arab countries

Philippe Fargues

Director of the Migration Policy Centre

Mobilising Migrants’ Skills for Development In The MENA Region - Making the most of young migrants skills

Tunis, 13-14 May 2013

Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies

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Algeria

Egypt

Jordan

Lebanon

Libya

Morocco

Syria

Tunisia

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0

Sto

ck o

f E

mig

ran

ts %

Rate of population growth in 2010 %

Figure 1: Population growth and emigration

ca. 2010

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European

Union

Arab

countries

Other

countries

Algeria 877,398 11,209 73,243 961,850 2.7%

Libya 43,646 8,963 10,947 63,556 1.0%

Morocco 3,056,109 214,438 101,432 3,371,979 10.6%

Tunisia 911,400 154,900 31,900 1,098,200 10.5%

4,888,553 389,510 217,522 5,495,585 6.5%

Egypt 199,153 2,783,000 238,770 3,220,923 4.0%

Jordan 24,158 158,284 84,591 267,033 4.3%

Lebanon 148,717 162,663 290,900 602,280 14.2%

Palestine* n.a. 0 n.a. n.a. n.a.

Syria** 131,108 1,387,806 124,833 1,643,747 8.1%

503,136 4,491,753 739,094 5,733,983 4.9%

5,391,689 4,881,263 956,616 11,229,568 5.7%

Regionofresidence

Total

In

percentage

oftotal

population

Source:datacombineconsularrecordsoftheorigincountriesandnationalcensusesofthedestinationcountries;migrantsare

definedas"foreign-born"or"nonnationals"accordingtocountries

*PCBSdataonPalestiniansabroadincludeallthePalestinianrefugees,amajorityofwhomarenotmigrants

**Syrianrefugeesasof23April2013areincluded

Table1:MigrantsoriginatinginArabMediterraneancountriesbyregionofresidence-mostrecentdataavailablein2013

Countryoforigin

Maghreb

Mashreq

Sub-totalMaghreb

Sub-totalMashreq

Total

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0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Figure 2: Moroccan Migrants in France, Italy and

Spain Stocks 1992-2010

France (Consular

Records)

Spain (Municipal

Registers, INE)

Italy (Residence

Permits, ISTAT)

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1996 2000 2005

Male 29 54 84

Female 14 37 66

15 – 19 21 44 76

20 – 24 24 47 77

25 – 29 23 45 74

Illiterate 6 3 66

Primary 19 45 77

Secondary 26 49 77

University 24 46 73

Employed 25 48 77

Unemployed 31 54 85

Student 26 48 75

22 45 76Total

National representative sample [sample size: 20,000 in 1996; 10,000 in 2000; 10,000 in 2005]- Source: Fourati,

Habib 2008, Consultations de la jeunesse et désir d'émigrer chez les jeunes en Tunisie 1996 – 2005, CARIM

Table 2: Wish to emigrate among Tunisian youth (15-

29 years) 1996-2005 in %

Individual characteristics

Sex

Age

Instruction

Activity

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Algeria

Egypt Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

Palestine

Sudan

Syria

Tunisia

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

Mig

ran

ts

Origin population

Fig 3: Proportion of highly-skiled persons among migrants and the origin population, age group 25-34, ca. 2005

Own calculation, from OECD data

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Figure 4: Unemployment rate among illiterates and graduates in Egypt and Tunisia 1980-2011

TUN, University

EGY, Illiterate

TUN, Illiterate

TUN, University

EGY, Illiterate

TUN, Illiterate

TUN, University

EGY, Illiterate

TUN, Illiterate

TUN, University

TUN, Illiterate

TUN, University

TUN, Illiterate

TUN, University

TUN, Illiterate

TUN, University

TUN, Illiterate

TUN, University

EGY, Illiterate

TUN, Illiterate

EGY, University

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0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Ag

e G

rou

p 2

0-3

5 Y

ears

(%

)

Figure 5: The Youth Bulge in North Africa Source: UN Population Database

North Africa

West Asia

Algeria

Egypt

Libya

Mauritania

Morocco

Sudan

Tunisia

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0

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

1985 1995 2005 2015

Algeria

0

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

1985 2005

Egypt

United Nations Estimates

Observed Data

0

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

1985 1995 2005 2015

Tunisia

Figure 6: Recent increases in Total Fertility Rate in selected Arab countries

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Figure 4: Age patterns of male international migration

Selected countries and periods

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Age at arrival in the country

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

imm

igra

nt

sto

ck

s

Argentina 1948-52 US 2000 US 2005 Canada 2001 Spain 2001

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Figure 5: Proportion of never-married men at the

mean age at migration, by region and year (%)

Source: http://w w w .un.org/esa/population/publications/WMD2008/Main.html

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Arab

states

Sub-

Saharan

Africa

LatinAmericaand theCarribean

South

Asia

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Figure 6: Mean number of children ever-born to migrant

men according to the stage of demographic transition Source: Author's calculation using UN age specific fertility patterns

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Nu

mb

er o

f ch

ild

ren

Pre-transition Transition 1 Transition 2 Post-transition

Before

migration

After

migrationM

igra

tio

n

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