Demographics and Educational Attainment Revised

7/30/2019 Demographics and Educational Attainment Revised

1/9

Demographics and Educational Attainment

A guide to understanding American Community Survey statistics on educational

attainment by race and ethnicity

An important objective for communities pursuing the Talent Dividend Prize is to

look to raise the educational attainment of all racial and ethnic groups. Some ofthe greatest opportunities for improving attainment lie in groups that havetraditionally been underserved and the least likely to advance in post-secondaryeducation. This guide aims to help participants in the Talent Dividend Prize tounderstand and use the data from the Census Bureaus American CommunitySurvey to assess educational attainment by race and ethnicity in theircommunities.

The American Community Survey is an annual survey conducted by the CensusBureau, which asks a wide range of questions about the demographic, social,and economic characteristics of American households. The ACS has replaced

the long form survey that used to be conducted as part of the decennial census.

Among the questions that the Census asks is the highest level of educationcompleted by persons 18 and older. This question serves as the basis for ACSestimates of educational attainment. While this data is not used to determine thewinner of the Talent Dividend Prize, it is highly useful in understanding the levelof educational attainment in your community and where opportunities lie to workwith particular demographic groups to improve attainment. (The winner of theTalent Dividend Prize will be determined by the percentage increase in thepopulation-adjusted number of college degrees awarded, as reported in IPEDS,and as further explained in the Talent Dividend Prize materials.) Our Talent

Dividend Attainment reports present aggregate data for all adults showing thefraction of the population 25 and older that has completed different levels ofeducation.

The American Community Survey is a survey of a random sample of U.S.households. About 1.9 million households complete the survey each year.Because it is a survey, rather than a complete count of the population, the resultsreported in the ACS are subject to a margin of error. The size of the margin of


2/9

Demographics and Educational Attainment - 2

error for any reported data point depends on the number of persons answeringthe question. Data are produced annually, with about a nine-month lag. Themost recent data are for the 2011 calendar year.

Census Race and Ethnicity Classifications

The American Community Survey asks respondents two different questionsabout their race and ethnic background. Respondents are asked whether theyidentify their race and whether they are of Hispanic, Latino or Spanish origin.The two ACS questions are show below.

Notice that respondents can identify themselves as multi-racial or as belonging tosome other race than those listed. The Census Bureau tabulates the answers tothese questions into a series of categories and summarizes statistical data for a


3/9


4/9


The same principlethe smaller the population in a sub-group, the larger theconfidence intervalholds for racial and ethnic sub-groups of the population aswell. So we have relatively small confidence intervals for large racial/ethnic sub-groups, and relatively large confidence intervals for the least well representedracial/ethnic groups in each metropolitan area. In some cases, there are so few

persons in a racial or ethnic group in a metro area that the sampling results arenot statistically significant. For example, if a particular racial/ethnic group hasonly 100 persons in a particular metropolitan area, it is most likely that only oneperson would complete an ACS survey. The results from one survey are unlikelyto be statistically representative for an entire group.

To show how much variation there is in the size of different racial/ethnic groups,and consequently how this affects the precision of ACS-based estimates ofeducational attainment, the following table shows the number of adults (25 andolder) in each racial/ethnic group nationally and the confidence interval of thefour-year college attainment rate for that group. For the most numerous group

(non-Hispanic whites), the confidence interval is about one-tenth of one percent.For the smaller groups, it is one percent or more.

Population of Principal Racial/Ethnic Groups and Confidence Interval of theEstimate of the Four-Year College Attainment Rate, United States, 2010

Race/Ethnic GroupPopulation 25 andOlder

ConfidenceInterval

White Alone, Not Hispanic orLatino 139,027,540 0.1%

Hispanic or Latino 26,466,221 0.5%Black or African American Alone 23,169,928 0.5%

Asian Alone 9,815,058 0.4%

Some Other Race, Alone 8,213,833 1.1%

Two or More Races 3,092,379 1.1%American Indian, Alaska NativeAlone 1,468,054 1.9%

Hawaiian, Pacific Islander, Alone 290,797 5.0%

Source: American Community Survey

To show how the difference in confidence intervals affects the reliability andprecision of our estimates of educational attainment for these groups, we showthe ACS estimate of the four-year college attainment and its confidence intervalfor each racial/ethnic group.


5/9


Four-Year College Attainment Rates and Confidence Intervals for PrincipalRacial/Ethnic Groups, United States, 2010

This chart shows the four-year college attainment rate for all adults, 25 and older,in each major racial/ethnic group.

The percentage figure shown on the chart for each group is the mid-point

of the ACS estimate for that group. The length of the vertical line next to each percentage figure is the

confidence interval for that group.

Groups are ordered form left to right in descending order based on theirestimated college attainment rates.

Short lines mean small confidence intervals.

Example: The estimated four-year college attainment rate of non-Hispanic whitesis 31.1 percent with a confidence interval of 0.1%, meaning that we can be 90%confident that the actual value for the population is between 31.0 percent and31.2 percent. The value for Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders is 14.6 percent, but

the confidence interval is 5.0 percent, meaning that the 90 percent confidenceinterval for this group is somewhere between 9.6 percent and 19.6 percent. As apractical matter, what this means is that the survey data arent sufficiently preciseto tell us whether Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders are more or less likely thanBlacks or Hispanics to have completed a four-year degree.


6/9


Metropolitan Area Estimates for Different Demographic Groups

These are the confidence intervals for the national dataand the confidenceintervals for smaller geographies are correspondingly higher. Consequently, forsmall racial/ethnic groups in smaller metropolitan areas, the confidence interval

of the estimate of educational attainment can have a wide confidence interval.

The American Community Surveys three-year pooled data for 2008 through2010 is our source of estimates of educational attainment for different racial andethnic groups in participating Talent Dividend metro areas. Pooling three yearsof data increases the sample size for each city, effectively shrinking theconfidence interval of the estimate.

The following table shows the confidence interval of the estimate of the four-yearcollege attainment rate for the Core-based Statistical Areas reported by theCensus Bureau. Core-based Statistical Areas include both metropolitan and

micropolitan areas. The Census Bureau reports data for CBSAs for particularethnic groups only if there are enough respondents in each ethnic group toproduce statistically valid results for that entire group. So, for example, only 22CBSAs had enough Pacific Islander residents in 2008-2010 to producestatistically valid estimates.

For more populous groups, the confidence interval of the four-year collegeattainment rate is higher. Of 368 CBSAs for which the Census Bureau reportsdata for Non-Hispanic Whites, 360 CBSAs have a confidence interval of smallerthan 10 percent, and 228 have a confidence interval of less than 5 percent. Butfor less populous racial/ethnic groups, very few CBSAs have small confidence

intervals. Thus while 240 MSAs have reported data on multi-racial personseducational attainment, only 21 have a confidence interval of less than 10percent and only 3 have a confidence interval of less than 5 percent. For Native

Americans and Alaska Natives, only 1 CBSA has a confidence interval of lessthan 10 percent; and for Native Americans/Alaska Natives and Pacific Islanders,no CBSA has an error rate of 5 percent.


7/9


Summary of Confidence Intervals for Four-Year College Attainment Rates forCore-based Statistical Areas (CBSAs), 2008-2010 American Community Survey,

CBSA's

ReportedbyCensus

Confidence Interval

for Four-Year CollegeAttainment RateSmaller Than

Racial/Ethnic Group 10% 5%

Non-Hispanic White 368 360 228

Black/African American 492 71 19

Hispanic/Latino 520 59 24

Asian 244 68 26

Multi-Racial 240 21 3

Pacific Islander 22 0 0Native Alaskan/AmericanIndian

134 1 0

Other 217 15 3

Because of the wide confidence intervals associated with Census Bureau dataon educational attainment for Native Americans/Alaskan Natives,Hawaiian/Pacific Islanders, Multi-Racial, and Other Race our Talent DividendDemographic Reports for specific metropolitan areas do not present ACS datafor these groups. Talent Dividend communities looking to assess the educationalstatus of these groups are better advised to look at national data for these

racial/ethnic groups to estimate their educational attainment.

Hispanic/Latino Adult Population, Four-year College Attainment Rate andConfidence Interval, Selected Metropolitan Areas, 2008-10 American CommunitySurvey

Metro Area Population,25 and older

Four-yearCollege

AttainmentRate

ConfidenceInterval

Los Angeles 3,110,022 10.2% 1.8%

Miami 1,544,187 23.6% 1.7%Dallas/Fort Worth 861,110 10.5% 3.0%

Boston 214,713 18.4% 5.2%

Tulsa 35,730 10.9% 15.4%

Cincinnati 25,592 24.9% 10.9%


8/9


For large metropolitan areas such as Los Angeles and Miami, where theHispanic/Latino population exceeds 1 million persons, the confidence interval ofthe estimated four-year college attainment rate is relatively lowless than 2percent. But for smaller metropolitan areas with a smaller Hispanic/Latinopopulation, the confidence intervals are much wider. In Tulsa and Cincinnati,

two metro areas with fewer than 50,000 Latinos, the confidence interval isgreater than 10 percent. In the case of Tulsa, the confidence interval implies thatthe actual share of Hispanic/Latino adults with a four-year degree is somewherebetween 0 percent and 26.3 percent. Users of ACS data on educationalattainment by racial/ethnic sub-group should pay special attention to theconfidence interval of these estimates in interpreting results.

For more information about ACS data and interpreting single-year and multi-yearestimates, visit the Census website:

http://www.census.gov/acs/www/guidance_for_data_users/guidance_main/

Support for the Talent Dividend Prize provided by:


9/9


Sample Demographic Report for a Metropolitan Area

Documents

Demographics and Educational Attainment Revised