Demographic Michigan’s Upper Peninsula · Upper Peninsula Population Structure Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC),

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HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE.

Demographic Trends in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula

Eric A. Guthrie, PhDJune 7, 2018


State Demographer

• Michigan’s liaison with the U.S. Census Bureau for most programs including population estimates, projections, data dissemination and the decennial census

• Advisor to state leaders, businesses, non‐profits, the media, and the general public on issues related to population and the Census

• Lead for the State Data Center (SDC)

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• I send out updates when there is a significant data release from the Census Bureau

• The Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives also sends out regular updates on a wealth of topics

• You can sign up for those updates and pick what topics interest you at: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/MIDEPTTMB/subscriber/new

Subscribe to the Bureau’s Listserv for updates


• Michigan Population– Trends, Projections and Structure

• How Populations Change

• Generational Fertility

• Upper Peninsula Population Trend

• Upper Peninsula Population Structure

• Upper Peninsula Projections and Scenarios

• Upper Peninsula Vital Statistics and Natural Increase

• Historical Upper Peninsula Migration

• Upper Peninsula Median Age

• Upper Peninsula Migration

• Items to Consider

Topics

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Michigan Population

9,952,450

10,055,315

9,876,199

9,962,311

9,750,000

9,800,000

9,850,000

9,900,000

9,950,000

10,000,000

10,050,000

10,100,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program


Michigan Projected Population

9,400,000

9,600,000

9,800,000

10,000,000

10,200,000

10,400,000

10,600,000

10,800,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program; MDOT and U‐M’s Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy (IRLEE)

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Why Does It Matter?

• There are only three things that affect a population size over time:

– Births

– Deaths

– Migration

Population2 =

Population1 + Births – Deaths + (In‐migrations – Out‐migration)

Natural Change Net Migration


Fertility by Generation (Births per 1,000 Women)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Boomers Gen X Millennials

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)

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Michigan Age Structure





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Michigan Net Migration

‐100,000

‐80,000

‐60,000

‐40,000

‐20,000

0

20,000

40,000

90‐91

91‐92

92‐93

93‐94

94‐95

95‐96

96‐97

97‐98

98‐99

99‐00

00‐01

01‐02

02‐03

03‐04

04‐05

05‐06

06‐07

07‐08

08‐09

09‐10

10‐11

11‐12

12‐13

13‐14

14‐15

15‐16

16‐17

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS); MDHHS

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Upper Peninsula Population

317,423

311,627

302,077

290,000

295,000

300,000

305,000

310,000

315,000

320,0002000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program


Upper Peninsula Population Structure


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Upper Peninsula Projected Population

290000

295000

300000

305000

310000

315000

320000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program; MDOT and U‐M’s Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy (IRLEE)


Upper Peninsula Vital Statistics

‐2000

‐1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Natural Change Deaths Births

Source: Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS)

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Upper Peninsula Net Migration

1,578

‐4,757

68

‐1,718

‐107

‐3,217

‐1,391

‐6,000

‐5,000

‐4,000

‐3,000

‐2,000

‐1,000

0

1,000

2,00090‐91

91‐92

92‐93

93‐94

94‐95

95‐96

96‐97

97‐98

98‐99

99‐00

00‐01

01‐02

02‐03

03‐04

04‐05

05‐06

06‐07

07‐08

08‐09

09‐10

10‐11

11‐12

12‐13

13‐14

14‐15

15‐16

16‐17

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS); MDHHS


Upper Peninsula Population Structure Less College Counties


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Upper Peninsula Population Structure Less College Counties


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Trends in Median Age

42.7

43.8

45.5

47.2

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

UP UP Less 2 University Counties


County Median Age

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Net Migration Between the UP and All Other US Counties

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 ACS 5‐year Estimates


Items to Consider


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• Population in the UP has been in decline for a long period

• Current projections indicate the population may seen some recovery in the next decades

– Concern that state‐level assumptions may be being applied to the UP, which may not come to fruition

• The regions greatest resource may be the area’s universities

– Large continuing resupply of your people that have already chosen to locate in the UP for a time

– How might the region engage that population and find out what they would need to stay?

– How might the region make that a focus?

Items to Consider


Questions?

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Eric A. Guthrie, PhDState DemographerDepartment of Technology, Management & BudgetBureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic InitiativesVictor Office Building201 N. Washington Square5th FloorLansing, MI 48913(517) 241‐8667

[email protected]

Documents

Demographic Michigan’s Upper Peninsula · Upper Peninsula Population Structure Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC),