Demog Forecast Nikopo Eng

7/27/2019 Demog Forecast Nikopo Eng

1/23

DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTFOR NIKOPOL


2/23

Contents

Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................. 3

Glossary..................................................................................................................................................... 4

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 5

Why Long-Term Demographic Forecasts? ............................................................................................... 5

Forces Behind Recent Demographic Trends............................................................................................. 6

Forecasting Population Methodology ....................................................................................................... 8

Assumptions.............................................................................................................................................. 8

Assumption # 1. Total Fertility Rate ..................................................................................................... 8

Assumption # 2. Average Life Expectancy......................................................................................... 11

Population Forecast ................................................................................................................................. 14

Results And Consequences ..................................................................................................................... 17

Conclusion............................................................................................................................................... 20

Appendix A: Demographic Model Methodology .................................................................................. 21

Appendix B: Nikopol Demographic Forecast ......................................................................................... 23


3/23

Executive Summary

The report analyzes the current demographic situation in Nikopol and presents a long-termdemographic forecast until 2030. The forecast includes number of population and age-sex

structure outlook.

To conduct the population forecast, a customized Nikopol demographic model uses historical

data on number of population, births, deaths, in- and out-migration. There are three primary

assumptions that are required to conduct the demographic forecast: total fertility rates, average

life expectancy, and net migration.

In this forecast, average life expectancy in Nikopol increases from 73,1 years in 2010 to 75,2

years in 2030 for females and from 62,6 to 65,0 years for males. Therefore gap in average life

expectancy between males and females is expected to shrink.

The total fertility rate of the average female will increase over the forecast time period from 1,46

in 2010 to 1,68 in 2030. Net migration is expected to continue to be negative. However, net

migration is expected to decrease in magnitude and stabilize; the number of people the city loses

to net migration every year will improve until it reaches -125 people per year starting in 2017.

Despite longer average life expectancy, higher fertility and improved net migration, the total

number of population will decrease and the population will continue to age. The number of

pop lation ill decrease from 123838 people in 2011 b 21 2 per cent and ill n mber 97637


4/23

Glossary

Total number of populationnumber of live people, in forecast is measured by January 1 ofrespective year.

Total fertility rate(TFR) the average number of children born by an average female during

her life.

Age specific fertility ratethe average number of children born by an average female in

specific age cohort

Natural replacement ratethe total fertility rate at which births compensate for deaths. In such

a case, the number of population will neither grow nor reduce, but stay stable. The natural

replacement rate is considered to be 2.1 children per female.

Number of birthstotal number of babies born by all females in a respective year.

Mortality ratenumber of deceased people in a respective year divided by number of people in

this year, usually is measured by 1000 people.

Age specific death ratenumber of deceased in specific age cohort divided by number of

people of the cohort in a respective year.

Average Life Expectancynumber of years each cohort is expected to live on conditions that

during lifetime of the cohort age specific mortality rate will stay stable.

Natural Changebirths minus deaths. This indicator will be positive when births outnumber

d th d ti if d th t b bi th Thi i di t h d l i l ti


5/23

Introduction

Nikopol is considered a large city (123 838 residents as of 1 January 2011) located inDnipropetrovsk oblast. This report analyzes the current demographic situation in Nikopol,

considers trends from previous years and presents a long-term demographic outlook until 2030

featuring the total population, including its age-sex structure, for every year up to 2030. Detailed

population data including annual migration, fertility and mortality are discussed and compared to

the experiences in other European countries.

The report was prepared within the framework of the International Technical Assistance ProjectBuilding capacity in Evidence-Based Economic Development Planning in Ukrainian Oblasts

and Municipalities (EBED Project). The EBED Projects main goal is to ensure the sustainable

economic development of the Ukrainian oblasts and cities through building the capacity of oblast

and city officials to apply quantitative analysis and forecasting tools to improve the economic

development planning of their territories (www.ebed.org.ua). The EBED Project is financed by

the Government of Canada.2

Why Long-Term Demographic Forecasts?

The goal of this demographic forecast is a reasonable projection of key parameters for

population movements and demographic situation in the future, which is the basis for further

b d t f t d l f i i i l


6/23

Nikopol will need to develop appropriate measures to offset the effects of projected difficult

demographic situation. In turn, such measures should be based on a clear vision of the future that

requires long-term demographic projections.

Forces Behind Recent Demographic Trends

The population of Nikopol has been significantly declining over past decade. The main reasons

for that were low number of births that do not exceed number of deaths. Negative net migration

has become an equally large loss to the population in recent years. Share of elderly grows whileshare of young people has been shrinking over last decade. The population is ageing because of

life-expectancy increase and low number of births. There is also large gap in average life

expectancy of males and females so in older age cohorts there are greater number of females

than males. The recent population developments can be summarized by the following:

1. Improvement in average life expectancy of males and females. Rapid economicdevelopment, growth of income, improving work conditions, enlargement of recreation

opportunities, improvement of human diet and growth of quality and accessibility of health care

services resulted in an increased average life expectancy. At the same time, a big difference in

average life expectancy between males and females can be attributed to arduous work conditions

of males at metallurgical enterprises in the city. Lifestyles, which is harmful for health and is

t l l ki l h l b kl d i i h lth di t d l k f


7/23

However total fertility rate is still below the natural replacement rate of 2,1. That suggests that

the population of the city shrinks if net migration remains negative.

3. Lack of youth under 25. Despite the improvement, the impact of low fertility rates in thepast cannot be erased. This phenomenon constantly impacts the distribution of the population

structure of Nikopol. Today there is a severe shortage of young people under the age of 25.

The share of people under 25 was 25 per cent in January 2011 compared to 29 per cent in 2002.

In the future this lack of young people will deepen because of still low fertility rates which donot reach natural replacement rate 2,1, and the lack of positive net migration.

4. Ageing of the population. Increase in average life expectancy combined with lowfertility rates in the past has created a new problem: ageing of the population. The median age

for males and females is 36 and 44 years respectively in 2011 and will grow in next years.

For every 100 working age people in Nikopol, there are 73 dependents (elderly people and

children). Since 2002, the number of children dependents has decreased by 22 per cent while the

number of elderly has grown by 1 per cent. Meanwhile, the working age population has

decreased 12 per cent.

5. Decline in population. Nikopol is experiencing a rapid reduction in the number ofid t l ti O th l t d d th b f l i th it h h k f 138


8/23

ForecastingPopulation

Methodology

The methodology of

building demographic

forecasts is generally

simple. Population in

the next year equals

population in the

current year minus the

number of deaths and

emigrants, plus thenumber of births and

immigrants. Besides,

all get older by one

year.

The forecasting model

t k i t t th i ti d t il d d l i l ti t t i t f th d

Chart 1. Nikopol Has a Lack of Youth Under Age 25

(Population by age and sex, January 2011)

Source: The Main Statistics Office in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.


9/23

periodically increase with the increase of the subsistence minimum.4 Therefore, it is expected

that fertility rates will continue to grow over the next 20 years, but since many of the initial

benefits of financial incentives have already been realized, growth in the TFR will be slightlyslower than during the recent 10 years. This forecast assumes that by 2030 the TFR will reach

1,68. (See Chart 2.)

It is common for European

cities and countries to have

a total fertility rate well

below natural replacement.The average TFR in

Nikopol was 1,39 over

2005-2010 which is the

same as the Ukrainian

average, but low by

European standards. The

TFR was still higher than

the lowest European

country (Bosnia and

Herzegovina). Ukraine is

ranked 28 of 40 European

countries (tied with

B l ) f TFR Th

Chart 2: Fertility Will Continue to Increase

(Total Fertility Rate, 2001-2030)

S EBED P j t Th M i St ti ti Offi i


10/23

Eastern Europe 1,41 1.70

Europe 1,53 1.76

Iceland (highest TFR in Europe) 2,10 2.10Bosnia and Herzegovina (lowest TFR in 1,18 1.35

World 2,52 2.29

Sources: UN World Population Prospects; EBED Project.5

Although the TFR is projected to grow, the number of females of childbearing age in the city

will be significantly declining because of peculiarities of population structure; the current lack of

females under 25 years old will lead to a shortage of females of childbearing age over the next

20 years. Therefore, increase in the TFR does not compensate for the reduction of females of

childbearing age, which will result in a fact that the total number of births will be gradually

declining over the period of forecast. (See Chart 3.) The number of babies born will decrease

from 1263 babies in 2010 to 789 babies by 2030.

However, the females started to give birth later. The number of females who give birth at the age

of 20-24 has dropped abruptly (from 42 per cent in 2001 to 34 per cent in 2010) and the number

of those who give birth at 25-34 has grown (from 38 per cent in 2001 to 47 per cent in 2010). It

is expected that this trend will continue during forecast. (See Chart 4.)


11/23

Assumption # 2.

Average Life

ExpectancyMales are more

likely to die

earlier than

females. This is

evidenced by the

wider "male" part

of the invertedtriangle in Chart

5: mortality rates

among males are

higher than among

females in all age

categories except

90+ cohort. The

reasons for the

higher male

mortality are

harmful and dangerous working conditions as well as lifestyle choices such as smoking, alcohol

consumption, unhealthy eating and low levels of exercise.

Chart 4: Females Increasingly Likely to Give Birth Later in Life

(Proportion of births by age of female, 2001-2030)

Sources: EBED Project; The Main Statistics Office in Dnipropetrovsk

Oblast.


12/23

There is a big gap in average

life expectancy between

males and females inNikopol. In 2010, the average

life expectancy of females

was 73,1, whereas among the

males it was only 62,6. It is

expected that the gap will

gradually shrink in the

following 10 years. The gapbetween average life

expectancies will gradually

shrink over the forecast; over

the past 10 years, the average

sex difference gap was 12

years, but over the next 20

years, it will shrink to 10

years. (See Chart 6.)

The female-male gap in life expectancy in Nikopol is still quite large in comparison to other

countries. At 12 years on average over 2005-2010, it is the same as the Ukrainian and Russian

averages, but it is larger than the Eastern European average. But it is forecast to improve

i ifi tl i th t 15 20 I 2025 2030 th it ill h th t i i il t

Chart 6: Life Expectancy To Improve For Both Sexes(Average life expectancy, by sex, 2001-2030)

Sources: EBED Project; The Main Statistics Office in

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.


13/23

It is assumed that the increase of average life expectancy of both sexes will be facilitated by the

social programs for the elderlies by the central and local governments, healthy lifestyles,development of environmental programs in the city, quality health care services, implementation

of new technologies at city industries, and disease prevention activities. The average life

expectancy of females will grow and reach 75,2 years by the end of our forecast period, 2030,

whereas the male average life expectancy will increase and will be 65,0 years.

While life expectancy is set to improve in the city, Nikopol has relatively low average life

expectancies by Ukrainian and European standards. Ukraine currently holds the last place inranking of 40 European countries by the average life expectancy indicator. Nikopols life

expectancy is lower than the Ukrainian average. The highest average life expectancy among

European countries is in Switzerland. Over the forecast, it is assumed that Nikopols average life

expectancy will improve at the same pace as the Ukrainian average. (See Table 3.)

Table 3: Average Life Expectancy in Selected Regions

Location 2005-2010 2025-2030

Nikopol 66 70

Ukraine (lowest life expectancy in Europe over 2005-2010) 68 72

Poland 76 79

Russian Federation 68 72

Eastern Europe 70 74

E 75 79


14/23

stabilize. Therefore, net migration over the forecast period is expected to stabilize at -125 people

per year starting in 2017. (See Chart 7.)

Over 97 per cent of

people who moved

into the city came

from other settlements

of Ukraine; the rest

came from other

countries. A similarpattern occurs among

those who left the city:

99 per cent of migrants

moved to other

settlements of Ukraine,

and only a small share

left for other countries.

The most of the out-

migrants to other

settlements of Ukraine

are young adults aged 17-25

h t t d ti

Chart 7: Net Migration to Improve(Net Migration, by sex, 2002-2030)

Sources: EBED Project; The Main Statistics Office in Dnipropetrovsk

Oblast.

Chart 8: Young Adults Most Likely to Leave Nikopol for


15/23

Because of low fertility

in the 1990s and early

2000s there is shortage

of young people in

Nikopol. That means the

population of Nikopol

will continue to age.

People older than the

working age will make

up 30 per cent of thepopulation in 2030,

while the proportion of

children will remain

constant at 14 per cent.

Currently, Nikopols

median age is similar to

Ukraine and other

European countries. Half of the population is older than 40 and half is younger. But the city is

expected to age significantly, at a similar rate to Ukraine and Europe as a whole. In 2030, the

median age will still be slightly higher than Ukraine and the same other European countries. (See

Table 4.)

Chart 9: Nikopol Population to Shrink

(Total Population by sex, 2002-2030)




16/23

A relative ageing of the

population can be clearly

seen in Chart 10, which

presents the sex and age

population pyramid in

Nikopol in 2030. It should

be noted that the number

of adults of working and

fertile age is relatively

small as well as number ofchildren while number of

people of older age groups

are higher.

Chart 11 shows total

number of males and

females in different age

categories, and compares

the age curves for 2011

and 2030. This chart

reflects both significant reduction in number and serious aging of Nikopol population. The

results presented in Chart 11, demonstrate the demographic situation as follows: the number of

ki d hildb i l i l d h i k hil h f ld l l i

Chart 10: Small Middle Age Population in 2030(Total Population by age and sex, 2030)

Source: EBED Project.


17/23

Results And Consequences

Ageing of the population will affect the number of elderlies, school and pre-school age children

and working age people; changes in the population will determine economic and budget situation

in upcoming years.

1 L h f ld l l ti Th i h i i f d hi

Chart 12: Deaths Will Still Outnumber Births

(Natural change in population [births deaths], 2000-2030)

Sources: EBED Project; The Main Statistics Office inDnipropetrovsk Oblast.


18/23

In 2011 each 100 of working age people had to support 73 non-working age persons, and by

2030 this figure will increase to 79 non-working age persons per each 100 of working age

people. That will affect not only the social situation of the working age people, who will have to

provide more for the non-working persons, but also the balance of budget accounts. Revenues

from personal income tax of the working age people will need to be used more economically

over a longer period of time.

Moreover, in the future the

older people will require moremedical and social services,

better access to doctors and

hospitals, to relevant services

and social institutions. The

number of elderly people age

65+ generally require more

medical care. This population is

set to increase 11 per cent over

2011-2030. (See Chart 14.) This

population will make up 23 per

cent of the population by 2030,

which will put a major strain on

h l h b d

Chart 14: Population Aged 65+ To Increase(Population Aged 65+, thousands, 2002-2030)


D i k Obl


19/23

The average age of the workforce will increase significantly and there will be a lack of young

workers and an abundance of older workers. The young working age population age 16-30 will

decrease by 36 per cent, or

by 8900 people!

Therefore, it will be

challenging for firms to

recruit the workers they

need for economic growth

to occur. The transfer ofskills from the

experienced to the new

entrants will be hindered

by the fact that there are

so few new entrants. (See

Chart 15.)

3. Number ofchildren of preshool age

will decrease. The

number of children will

also change the need in

h l d ki d

Chart 16: Preschool Age Population To Decrease(Number of children aged 0-5, 2002-2030)



Ch 17 Ch I S h l A P l i


20/23

will see the lowest point of this population, then it will increase until 2021 before declining

again. Overall, the net effect will be a loss of 934 students in 2030 compared to 2011. (See

Chart 17.)

5. General shrinkage of population. That will require changes in the city infrastructure demand for different types of housing and public transport infrastructure load will change. For

example, a decrease in the total population could lead to a decrease in the number of public

transportation units. It could also lead to a decrease in the load on the automobile roads of the

city and their deterioration, which in its turn can cause a decrease in expenses for their repair.

However, the positive effect on the budget due to these factors is far outweighed by the negativeimpacts of population ageing.

The shrinkage of working age population will require growth in labour productivity in order to

ensure economy growth. Otherwise decrease in labour force will have negative effect on whole

city economy.

Conclusion

Any forecast is a more or less probable course of future processes. Analytical forecasts usually

have a look of assessment of the demographic situation parameters in the future, which is

derived taking into account the current population structure and making future assumptions on

f ili lif d i i h l f h f ib


21/23

Appendix A: Demographic Model Methodology

A customized demographic model was built under the EBED project for the city of Nikopol. It is

a cohort-component demographic model which is the most widely used type of model in

demography.9

Population data for both the city and oblast were gathered from the Main Statistical Office in

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast . Some data are not available for the city, so had to be estimated using

oblast data. A Nikopol population database was built containing historical data on a number of

different areas:

1. Total population and its breakdown by age and sex (2002-2011),2. Total births and births by the age of the mother (2000-2010),3. Total deaths and its breakdown by age and sex (2000-2010),4. In-migration, its breakdown by age and sex, and its breakdown by foreign and domestic(2002-2010),

5. Out-migration. its breakdown by age and sex, and its breakdown by foreign and domestic(2002-2010).Together, these five datasets are used to describe the important population characteristics of the

city. A demographic model was then built that forecasts all of these detailed datasets out to 2030.

There are three components of population change in a demographic forecast: births, deaths and

migration. Some of these changes contribute positively to population growth, and some are

negative contributors. (See Diagram 1.)


22/23

in 2010, plus net migration of 39 year old males in 2010. This is the case for every age and sex

group in the model except for people aged 0. The population aged 0 is calculated based on

population of females of childbearing age and the age-specific fertility rates. Therefore, the

model requires three main assumptions: the total fertility rate, the average life expectancy and

net migration.

Inputting a total fertility rate assumption into the forecasting model results in an automatic

calculation of age-specific fertility rates by sharing out the total fertility rate based on historical

trends. The resulting calculation for the total number of babies born is the multiplication of the

age-specific fertility rates to their corresponding populations of females in those ages. Inputting

the average life expectancy assumption results in the automatic calculation of the age-specific

mortality rates in a similar fashion. The resulting calculation for the total number of deaths is the

multiplication of the sex and age-specific mortality rates to their corresponding population

cohorts. The net migration assumption is conducted by simply estimating the total number of in-

and out-migrants (broken down by domestic and foreign migration) for each year of the forecast.

Once these three assumptions have been made, the model calculates the forecast. Changing theseassumptions can change the forecast results. However, most of the population forecast results are

generated by the underlying structure of the population and can only be varied to a limited extent

by changing these assumptions. For instance, there were very low fertility rates in the 1990s and

as a result there will be very few childbearing age females in the future. Therefore, changing the

total fertility rate assumption does not always have a big effect on the births forecast. This is

because the births forecast depends on the underlying population structure, namely the number

f hildb i f l h d l k f li i b h i h i i d l i


23/23

23

Appendix B: Nikopol Demographic Forecast

Sources: EBED Project; The Main Statistics Office in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

2000 991 2344 -1353

2001 944 2285 -1341

2002 138218 1020 2326 -1306 67.3 2242 2494 -252

2003 136577 -1.2% 1067 2362 -1295 67.0 2005 2266 -261

2004 135021 -1.1% 1148 2458 -1310 66.7 2322 2205 117

2005 133828 -0.9% 1117 2492 -1375 65.9 2092 2095 -3

2006 132450 -1.0% 1275 2398 -1123 66.5 1862 1928 -66

2007 131261 -0.9% 1327 2378 -1051 66.0 1305 1929 -624

2008 129586 -1.3% 1370 2423 -1053 65.6 771 1651 -880

2009 127653 -1.5% 1375 2292 -917 67.3 499 1433 -934

2010 125802 -1.5% 1263 2228 -965 68.4 652 1651 -999

2011 123838 -1.6% 1282 2228 -946 67.9 489 1456 -967

2012 121913 -1.6% 1234 2209 -975 68.0 506 1406 -900

2013 120027 -1.5% 1185 2187 -1002 68.2 606 1306 -700

2014 118314 -1.4% 1140 2165 -1025 68.3 706 1206 -500

2015 116779 -1.3% 1100 2144 -1045 68.5 856 1206 -350

2016 115375 -1.2% 1058 2119 -1062 68.6 1006 1206 -200

2017 114104 -1.1% 1017 2101 -1084 68.7 1081 1206 -125

2018 112886 -1.1% 978 2078 -1100 68.9 1081 1206 -125

2019 111652 -1.1% 940 2058 -1118 69.0 1081 1206 -125

2020 110402 -1.1% 903 2036 -1134 69.2 1081 1206 -125

2021 109135 -1.1% 871 2017 -1146 69.3 1081 1206 -125

2022 107857 -1.2% 844 1999 -1155 69.5 1081 1206 -125

2023 106570 -1.2% 820 1981 -1162 69.6 1081 1206 -125

2024 105277 -1.2% 800 1964 -1164 69.7 1081 1206 -125

2025 103981 -1.2% 786 1950 -1165 69.9 1081 1206 -1252026 102685 -1.2% 777 1934 -1158 70.0 1081 1206 -125

2027 101397 -1.3% 776 1919 -1142 70.2 1081 1206 -125

2028 100123 -1.3% 778 1903 -1125 70.3 1081 1206 -125

2029 98867 -1.3% 783 1883 -1099 70.5 1081 1206 -125

2030 97637 -1.2% 789 1860 -1071 70.6 1081 1206 -125

Documents

Demog Forecast Nikopo Eng