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A very good morning

To the honorable juries, participants and the respected audience

My name is Shiki Samekto and Im from Muhammadiyyah 2 senior highschool

Before I start my speech I would like to thank the master of ceremony for giving me a chance to

join this English speech contest.

I would like to deliver a speech entitled the negatives effect of democratization in the middle

east

Ladies and gentelman

This year, The world have changed in the middle east. Young people in Middle East who have

been suppressed for so long finally stand up against their dictator leaders and struck a blow to

those leaders iron fist. This is a sign of new freedom. But the impacts are far more complicated,

and some would change the world in a way we would never want. Of course we all want

democracy but for the Arab world its too soon and too immature.

Ladies and gentleman what is needed for democracy to begin? The answer is revolution and

political instability in the beginning.

Every revolutions starting from the Bolsheviks in Russia till today uses this opportunity to create

anarchy on the streets, and while this is happening they create a new government. But, The

problem is, that political instability is not good for global trade, and as you all know the Middle

East is the biggest producer of oil in the world today.

The revolution in Libya for example, has raised oil prices by as much as 2.6 percent; the highest

rise since the 2008 economic crisis. This may seem like a minor change, but considering the

world runs on mineral oil, an average individual like us uses 20 barrels of oil a year. What willhappen if a revolution occurs in a country like Saudi Arabia that produces 10.57 percent of

world oil? Let me tell you, a global inflation. Starting from things like toys to our daily foods.

When the prices rise more political instability will occur. Consider that the French Revolution is

initiated by the rise in bread prices. They can initiate a global turmoil. The middle east is also a

premier trading zone. Every ship that goes to Europe or china passes through the Suez Canal. If

this Canal is shutdown due to revolution ships must reroute to the Cape of Good Hope in Africa

which means another 6000 km is added to their journey. This means that we can lose billions of

dollars worth of money.

Ladies and gentleman,A revolution might also spark another type of revolutions that is a social revolution particularly

in Europe. New freedom means that people can go in and out of a country. Illegal immigration

has been a mass problem in Europe since the 1970s. The revolution in Tunisia has brought

hundreds of thousands of people to the shore of Italy in search of more prosperous grounds.

They bring nothing but the clothes in their bodies not even money to start a new life. The

Italian government cannot throw them out due to humane reasons. The problem is the

majority of people in Italy are more than weary of them. They fear that the flock of foreign

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culture would destroy their own culture. This could develop into a more serious situation

because if there is any crisis they can become scapegoats. This would shatter international

relationships, create distrust between people. In history it is clear that when a new culture sets

in bigotry cannot be avoided. Setting a new cultural revolution that could turn Europe upside

down.

There is also a flaw in Middle East revolution. Because it is initiated by the youth

through social sites like face book and twitter, it is leaderless, there is no significant central

power that drives them, except their own desires and will. Leaderless revolution is very

cancerous it could spread like wild fire until the entire region is engulfed in the flames of

revolution. Leaderless revolution could also give an opportunity for radical leaders to take the

power and use the desires of the people for his own needs and gains potentially creating

turmoil in the region. This would be a threat to the world. For example Irans leader

Ahmadinejad who is only a bit radical has threatened the current power balance. The world

cannot afford the Middle East to become radical countries. Could you imagine if a radical leader

controls a rich Middle Eastern country and use its natural resources to build nuclear weapons?

The impact would be humongous and the situation would be catastrophic.

Democratizations is a good thing but in the land of Arabia it should be done more carefully

because there are a thousand interrelating consequences starting from foreign policies, social

conflicts and of course economic crisis to the world.

This is the end of my speech, thank you for listening.