DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION IN MEXICO

3/1/2010

PHASE 1: Transitional Democracy Breakdown of the old regime Transition to democratic forms,

procedures Elections Sovereignty Rule of Law Freedom of Information Freedom of Association Guarantees During Non-Election Times

PHASE 2: Democratic Consolidation The behavior of the state is no longer

dominated by the problem of how to avoid breakdown

Consolidation Democratic Culture Fair Access to Opportunity Satisfaction of Collective Needs Institutionalization

Negotiating Political Uncertainty Contingent Consent:

The winners will not use their temporary superiority to bar the losers from taking office or exerting influence in the future in exchange for the losers respecting the right of the winners to make binding decisions.

Citizens obey the ensuing decisions provided the outcome remains contingent on fair and regular elections through which their collective preferences are expressed.

Bounded Uncertainty: Actors, issues, policies, etc. are bounded by constitutional guarantees; certain issues are beyond the bounds of the regular competition while others are explicitly included.

The Limits of Democracy

Democracy is not necessarily more efficient economically.

Democracy is not necessarily more efficient administratively.

Democracy is not necessarily more orderly, consensual, stable, or governable.

Democracy is not necessarily more open economically.

Mexico: Government Structures Constitution of the United Mexican States

(1917) Federal System

Central Government Executive: President Legislative: Congress

Senate Chamber of Deputies

Judicial: Supreme Court of Justice 31 States and a Federal District (Mexico City)

Major Parties PRI: Institutional Revolutionary Party PAN: National Action Party PRD: Party of the Democratic Revolution

Mexico: Breakdown of the Old RegimeThe PRI System Managed elections The party serves to share power between

the revolutionary factions without the destructive rivalries that elections fostered

The party incorporates the mobilized peasantry through corporatist structures (state-mediated relations between business and workers) and land reform

Presidential nomination of successor

Mexico: Breakdown of the Old Regime Why does the system fail?

Economic crisis of the 1980s Rising levels of education and wealth Rising levels of mobilization and democratic

expectations Democratic transition in Mexico has

been about transforming (v. building or restoring) institutions to make them function democratically

Mexico: Transitional DemocracyThe 1988 – 2000 Period: Elections take on

a genuine character 1988: the election of Carlos Salinas (PRI),

the defeat of Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, and the rise of the PRD and the PAN

1994: the election of Ernesto Zedillo (PRI)

2000: the election of Vicente Fox (PAN) IS THIS THE MOMENT OF CONSOLIDATION?

Mexico: Questionable ConsolidationThe 2006 Presidential Election Was the election free and fair? Was the government neutral? Were the actors abiding by the rules of the

game? Did the candidates/parties respect the

voters? Were civil liberties and human rights

respected? Was the media free and fair?

Mexico: Continuing Challenges to Consolidation Underdeveloped democratic institutions

are vulnerable to manipulation Failure to internalize democratic

principles Tenuous rule of law Poverty, inequality, and slow economic

growth Challenges to the legitimacy of the

current administration