Demand for Higher Education Programs Webcast...Source: GrayReports –Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System 115% 72% 62% 56% 49% 0% 50% 100% 150% Computer Systems Networking

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Demand for Higher Education Programs

Results through June 2019

JANET SIEFFManager of Business [email protected]

Absolutely experiencedAbsolutely effective

Absolutely higher ed

ENROLLMENT DEVELOPMENT & MARKETING

DIGITAL & TRADITIONAL ADVERTISING

STAFF DEVELOPMENT & TRAINING

MARKET RESEARCH

WEB SERVICES

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CAMPUS EVENTS

OVER 500 HIGHER ED CLIENTS We’ve driven college enrollment for over 30 years

THE MOST COMPREHENSIVE AND RESOURCE-RICH HIGHER EDUCATION MARKETING AGENCY IN THE COUNTRY

120+STRONG

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Data-Driven? Or Data-Informed?Most institutional decisions should be data-informed.

Data-DrivenAlgorithmically feasible, high volume:

e.g., Google keyword bidding

Data-InformedData and judgement needed,

low volume, high value: e.g., program selection, scholarship offers

Data-FreeUnimportant, low-cost, first try,

intuitively sensible

Academic Program Decisions

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Program Sustainability: An Integrated View

We envision four foundations of program sustainability.

StudentDemand Employment

DegreeFit

CompetitiveIntensity

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Who is Gray?

Program and MarketEvaluation Data

Employment

Placement Rates

Student Demand

DemographicsWages

Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation System§ Program Economics Platform§ Integrated Program Analysis

§ Market Analysis Platform§ Location selection§ Campus consolidation

§ Price elasticity§ Price positioning§ Price optimization

§ Business strategy § Strategy implementation§ Complex analytics

Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Employer Requirements

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§ Inquiries- National- Online and On-Campus- Program, Degree, and City

§ Google Search Trends- Programs- Brands

§ Program of the Month: Mental Health Counseling§ Summary

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100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels

2017 2018 2019

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§ We started tracking inquiries in 2012 and Google search volumes in September 2016.§ In our webinars, we share data for the last three years.

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)Gray has tracked demand for several years.

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

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National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels

2017 2018 2019

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Student Inquiries (All Sources)In June, inquiries rose 13% year-over-year, continuing an eight-month winning streak.


+ 13%YoY

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05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000


Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels

2017 2018 2019

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Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

In the last “mature” month, March 2019, conversions declined year-over-year.

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries are received.


-6%YoY

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Immature Months1

§ Conversions are now up 2% for February 2019.§ March 2019 might catch up with last year, if a few more inquiries convert.

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§ Price-per-inquiry decreased $2 from May.

Average Price for Pay-per-InquiryPrice-per-inquiry decreased 7% year-over-year in June.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2017 $45.38 $45.29 $45.50 $45.38 $45.52 $45.79 $45.23 $44.57 $45.09 $46.08 $45.92 $46.732018 $47.12 $46.56 $46.33 $47.41 $49.49 $49.25 $48.34 $50.31 $48.36 $47.60 $49.09 $47.552019 $48.02 $47.13 $43.74 $47.49 $48.00 $45.99 $- $- $- $- $- $-

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels

2017 2018 2019

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.


-7%YoY

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Inquiries for Online ProgramsInquiries for online programs increased 6% in June.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2017 2018 2019


+6%YoY

§ Inquiries for online programs have increased year-over-year in each of the past 15 months.

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Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsIn June, inquiries for on-campus programs decreased 14%.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2017 2018 2019


-14% YoY

§ This ends the three-month run of 24% or more declines in on-campus inquiries.

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§ Business Administration and Medical Assistant inquiries rose 24% or more year-over-year.

The Big 5 ProgramsInquiries for all five of the “Big 5” programs increased year-over-year in June.

27%24%

19%

13%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

BusinessAdministration

Medical Assistant Criminal Justice Registered Nursing Medical OfficeAssistant

The Big 5 ProgramsSince 2012

Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries


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The Fast 5 Programs1

In June, three of the five fastest-growing programs were in healthcare fields.

1. Selected from the 75 programs with the highest inquiry volume since January 2012; excludes programs with <1,000 inquiries in prior year.


115%

72% 62% 56% 49%

0%

50%

100%

150%

Computer SystemsNetworking and

Telecommunications

Mental HealthCounseling

HealthInformation/Medical

Records Admin.

HealthcareAdministration

Communication andMedia Studies

The Fast 5 ProgramsSince 2012

Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries

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The Fast 5 Emerging Programs1

Volumes for the two fastest-growing programs more than quintupled in June, but off a low base in 2018.

1. Selected from the 75 programs with the highest inquiry volume since January 2012; excludes programs with <100 inquiries in prior year.


475167 291 205 186

3,150

1,161949

695 555

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500

Operations Mgmt.and Supervision

Applied Psychology Social Work Engineering Science Purchasing,Procurement, andContracts Mgmt.

The Fast 5 Emerging ProgramsTotal June Inquiries

2018 2019

2019 Requested Award Level

Bachelor’s: >99% Bachelor’s: >99% Master’s: 96% Bachelor’s: >99% Certificate: 75%Associate’s: 25%

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The Big 5 Cities1

Four of the Big 5 Cities continued to grow, but Philadelphia fell again.§ LA had strong inquiry growth in June for the past two years.

-3%

16%

2%

-7%

6%

19% 18%13% 12%

-7%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Houston, TX Los Angeles, CA Chicago, IL New York, NY Philadelphia, PA

The Big 5 CitiesYear-over-Year Change in June Inquiries

2018 YoY % Change 2019 YoY % Change

1: The largest five cities are determined by inquiry volume for a market definition of a 15-mile radius around the population center of the city’s CBSA.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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Inquiry Volumes by Degree LevelInquiries at all award levels increased year-over-year in June.

0.4%

14%

24%

10%

10%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Undergraduate certificate

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctor's degree

Change in InquiriesJune YoY


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§ Gray tracks search volume for the 200 largest higher-education programs. - We track approximately 20 keywords for each program.

Google Search Trends: ProgramsGray’s Google search index has risen every month for the past year, up 13% in June.

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000


Google Searches200 Largest Programs*

2017 2018 2019

*Google Searches for 25 keywords for each of the 200 largest programs based on IPEDS completions.

+13%YoY

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Google Search Trends: Shrinking Programs

In June 2019, Google searches declined the most for Occupational Therapist Assistant. Google searches continued to decline in several STEM programs; these were also among the fastest-declining programs in May.

-36%

-23%

-18%

-17%

-14%

-14%

-11%

-8%

-8%

-6%

-40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%

Occupational Therapist Assistant

Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science, General

Chemistry, General

Elementary Education and Teaching

Religion/Religious Studies

Bible/Biblical Studies

Physics, General

Journalism

Computer Programming/Programmer, General

Medical Administrative/Executive Assistant and Medical…

Fastest-Declining ProgramsJune Google Searches

Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 IPEDS Programs. Minimum 10,000 monthly searches

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Google Search Trends: Growing Programs

Vocational programs continue to make up a large portion of the fastest-growing programs’ list. Searches for electrician programs grew 70% year-over-year in June.

70%

53%

52%

52%

42%

37%

36%

35%

33%

31%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Electrician

Finance, General

Aesthetician/Esthetician and Skin Care Specialist

Nail Technician/Specialist and Manicurist

Child Development

Social Work

Dental Assisting/Assistant

Cosmetology/Cosmetologist, General

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/Coder

Veterinary/Animal Health Technology/Technicianand Veterinary Assistant

Fastest-Growing ProgramsJune Google Searches

Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 IPEDS Programs. Minimum 10,000 monthly searches

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§ Interest may be shifting from college brands to specific programs–and their related careers.

Google Search Trends: BrandsGray increased the number of brands we track from 75 to 350 institutions.

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000


Google Searches350 Brands

2017 2018 2019

Source: Gray Associates research, keyword search trends for 350 college and university brands.

-5%YoY

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Fastest-Growing BrandsSearches for “Oberlin College” grew from 40,020 in June 2018 to 234,920 in June 2019.

443%

147%

128%

123%

94%

87%

85%

79%

74%

67%

0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500%

Oberlin College

Indiana University

Vanderbilt University

Bellarmine University

Illinois State University

St John's University-New York

Hondros College of Nursing

Texas A & M University-College Station

Cincinnati State Technical andCommunity College

University of Maine

Fastest-Growing BrandsYear-over-Year Change in Google Searches

Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for 350 Brands. Minimum 10,000 Google searches.

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Confidential 31

Program Sustainability: An Integrated View

We envision four foundations of program sustainability.

Foundations of Program Sustainability

Program ScoringWe suggest using four categories of market data.

StudentDemand

Employment

DegreeFit

CompetitiveIntensity

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Program Markets: Program RankScoring on metrics in the four categories identifies potentially attractive programs.

National Program Scores and Ranking

Score

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§ Total volume for inquiries ranks in the 95th percentile.- This is an increase in volume of 53% from last year.

§ Total Google Search volume and Completions are in the 70th percentile.- Year-over-year unit changes are in the 95th percentile.

Program Scorecard: Student DemandStudent Demand volumes range from the 70th to the 95th percentiles.

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§ 21 institutions added programs from the prior year.§ Marketing metrics – average cost per inquiry, cost per click, and Google competitive index – are in

the top 5% of the least-expensive programs.§ 8% of institutions offer an online program, however those institutions produce 25% of completions.

Program Scorecard: Competition210 institutions offer Mental Health Counseling programs nationally.

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Program Scorecard: Employment The employment opportunities in Mental Health Counseling are growing.

§ Total job postings and current employment are in the 70th percentile.

§ Year-over-year percent growth in total employment is in the 90th

percentile.

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§ 52% of the workforce hold Master’s degrees.

Program Scorecard: Degree Fit93% of Mental Health Counselor national completions are at the Master’s level.

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Program Scorecard: Mental Health Counseling

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Market Analysis: Opportunity ScoresUsing a weighted scoring system to evaluate completions opportunity, CBSAs with the most potential for Mental Health Counseling programs are in California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Texas.

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§ Total student inquiries were up 13% year-over-year.- Inquiries for online programs continue to rise.- Inquiries for on-campus programs continue to fall.

§ But, inquiry conversions declined slightly in May§ Inquiries increased at every degree level.

§ Google program search volume also rose 13%, but branded searches fell.

§ Inquiries rose 72% for Mental Health Counseling.- This follows a 169% increase year-over-year in May.

§ In 2017, 21 institutions had their first completions from Mental Health Counseling programs.- 18 of these programs were at the Master’s level.- All three year-over-year unit changes in Student Demand metrics are in the 95th percentile.- 25% of completions are in programs offered online.- Total employment is above average and growing, but wages are poor.- Unemployment rates are low.- Market completions opportunity scores are highest in California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Texas.

As always, good market data enables better program decisions.

Key Demand Trends and Observations

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Upcoming WebinarsOn August 8th, Gray will present its final Master Class on “Academic Program Assessment”. The topic will be how to integrate and sustain data-informed program decision-making.

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Webinar Topic Date

Master Class 6: Integrate and Sustain August 8, 2:00 pm ET

GrayReports: Monthly Demand Trends Webcast Featuring Study Portals

August 22, 2:00 pm ET

Documents

Demand for Higher Education Programs Webcast...Source: GrayReports –Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System 115% 72% 62% 56% 49% 0% 50% 100% 150% Computer Systems Networking