Demand Est Example

8/11/2019 Demand Est Example

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Demand Estimation & MarketSizing

Study to UnderstandM-Commerce Market in India



Subject: Top Urgent Project: M-Commerce Market Size and projection

Dear Deepak,

Can you kindly help us with any report that provides this information / project;

We are looking for Indian M-commerce market size related statistics & next 4-5 years forecast in terms of total transactions & totalbusiness amount from those transactions.

Main transaction types of m-commerce are:

1. Mobile commerce based self Recharges

2. Mobile commerce based movie/travel tickets booking, Shopping & 3rd party payments

3. Mobile Banking (Money transfer, Cash deposit/ Cash with drawl)

Regards

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• While SMS Banking is being offered as aconvenience banking service, mobile banking isa more advanced technology service thatrequires a GPRS subscription and a GPRS-

enabled mobile handset.

• For mobile banking, the user is required to

download an application on the handset

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Objective

Business Objective:

• To estimate and forecast the size of MobileCommerce market in India with respect to main

transaction types of Self recharge, 3rd

partypayments and Mobile Banking

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Research Objectives

Business Objective:

• To estimate and forecast the size of Mobile Commerce market in India withrespect to main transaction types of Self recharge, 3rd party payments andMobile Banking

• For simplicity assume there is only one transaction type

Research Objective

• To understand current M-Commerce market scenario in India in terms of – – Market size – Types of transactions – Profile of people using m-commerce

• To understand Drivers / Barriers towards adoption of m-commerceamongst consumers

• Estimated growth in M-Commerce market over next 2 years

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• What should be the Rsch Design

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Research Framework

– Secondary research : Various secondary resources like industry reports,

published data, mobile commerce forum websites, news articles etc havebeen scrutinized for this study

– Primary research : This phase includes the following modules

•Qualitative interviews : Qualitative interviews have been conducted withpeople in the telecom industry as well as with industry experts using asemi structured discussion guide

•Quantitative interviews : Quantitative interviews were initiated afterconducting a few qualitative interviews (so that these serve as anexploratory study towards hypothesis generation and questionnaire

development for the quantitative study).

– Analysis: The data obtained from all the above modules has been jointlyanalyzed to generate most meaningful insights



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Research Design

Secondary

Research

Desk

Research

Primary Research

Qualitative

ModuleQuantitative Module

Listings Mains



• What would be the approach orframework

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Approach

•The Listings should enable us to get the penetration of m commercein 2010, the current year usage and likely penetration in 2012

•From the m commerce users we expect to get data on currentvolume of transactions by type & also the avg. value per transaction

•From the DIs, we hope to get the future growth expected, the driversand barriers and how their weight age would change with time

• Hence for e.g. the total market for Mobile commerce based self

Recharges in 2012= total mobile subscribers expected in2012*expected m commerce penetration in 2012*total number oflikely self recharge transactions per user in 2012 *likely averageamount per transaction.

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Research Methodology: Qualitative interviews

• We have carried out in-depth interviews amongst following segment –

• Each of these interviews was a freewheeling discussion held by the ResearchManager and/or Insights Director of the research team

• Each interview was recorded, transcribed and content analyzed to derive therequired insights.

Categories Interviews

Mobile Operators 2

M-Commerce Service Providers Such as mChek,ngPay, Eko,Obopay,etc 5

Third Party application providers 4

Experts 5

Total 16



• Info areas ????

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Info areasCurrent M-Commerce Scenario

– Percentage of growth over last 1-2 years

Current growth rate

Reasons of growth of market

– Current size of the market

– Barriers/Drivers of m-Commerce

Future Scenario

– Estimated growth in mCommerce market over next 2 years

By transaction volume

By subscribersBy number transactions

– Impact of falling cost of handsets and introduction of featurerich phones, rising use of tablet-PCs, Support of regulatoryauthority etc

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Quantitative – what will be theapproach

How would you define the universe

How would you project to universe

How would you estimate the future mkt size





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Zone City Mobile Subscriber

North

Tier 1 Delhi 550

Tier 2 Lucknow 350

Tier 3 Chandigarh 150

East

Tier 1 Kolkata 550

Tier 2 Patna 350

Tier 3 Bhubaneswar 150

West

Tier 1 Mumbai 550

Tier 2 Indore 350

Tier 3 Baroda 150

South

Tier 1 Chennai 550

Tier 2 Cochin 350

Tier 3 Mangalore 150

Total 4200



LISTINGS

The listing questionnaire will be a shortquestionnaire (1-2 pgs) designed to help usidentify key parameters such as

• Awareness & penetration of M-Commerceapplications,

• penetration of smartphones,

• Intention of adopting M-Commerce usage

– Drivers & Barriers

– Intention of purchasing smartphone

– Intention of purchasing wireless mobile connections.

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Mains - – sample design & info areas???

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Zone City M-CommerceUser

North

Tier 1 Delhi 30

Tier 2 Lucknow 30

Tier 3 Chandigarh 30

East

Tier 1 Kolkata 30

Tier 2 Patna 30

Tier 3 Bhubaneswar 30

West

Tier 1 Mumbai 30

Tier 2 Indore 30

Tier 3 Baroda 30

South

Tier 1 Chennai 30

Tier 2 Cochin 30

Tier 3 Mangalore 30

Total 360



MAINS

The mains questionnaire shall be used to capture data from M-

Commerce users regarding the

a. When did respondent start using mobile phones to conductfinancial transactions?

b. Type of M-Commerce transactions commonly performed bythe respondent:

i. What is the number of transactions (by type) that therespondents have performed during :

1. 2011, so far

2. Last month

3. Last week

4. 2010

5. Year 2009

ii. Average value of each type of transaction (2009-2012)

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Zone City Mobile Subscriber

M-Commerce

User Total

North

Tier 1 Delhi 550 30 580

Tier 2 Lucknow 350 30 380

Tier 3 Chandigarh 150 30 180

East

Tier 1 Kolkata 550 30 580

Tier 2 Patna 350 30 380

Tier 3 Bhubaneswar 150 30 180

West

Tier 1 Mumbai 550 30 580

Tier 2 Indore 350 30 380

Tier 3 Baroda 150 30 180

South

Tier 1 Chennai550 30

580Tier 2 Cochin 350 30 380

Tier 3 Mangalore 150 30 180

Total 4200 360 4560



What can be other Sources of m commerce users

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Sources of m commerce users

• o M-Commerce Subscriber Database: Databases of people who

have participated in such transactions. The databases will be purchasedfrom various sources such as third party service providers, etc. We requestMTS to also provide a list of their list of subscribers using m commerce.

• o Exit Interviews at Partner outlets: Exit interviews shall be

conducted at partner outlets/ affiliates who have tied up with M-Commercecompanies. E.g. Green Money Transfer Initiative between CorporationBank, Tata Teleservices and PayMate that allows sending & receiving ofmoney at over 700,000 retail points

• o Exit Interviews at places frequented by target segments such as

movie theatres (here we are also likely to find people who have bookedmovie tickets via m commerce), malls, schools, colleges and universities.

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• How would you like to define the Targetrespondents for

– LISTINGS

– MAINS

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Target Segment

Listings Segment:

• Anyone (SEC A to E) who was 16 yrs and above and using a mobile phone for atleast the past 6 months.

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Target Segment

Mains Segment:

• Mobile subscribers who have ever used (relaxed from last 6 months) any of thefollowing m-commerce transaction types:

• Mobile commerce based Self-Recharges

• Mobile commerce based movie/travel tickets booking, Shopping & 3 rd party

payments• Mobile Banking (Money transfer, Cash deposit/ Cash with drawl), etc.

• Mobile Remittances

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• Sampling Method for – LISTINGS

– MAINS

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Research Methodology

Mains Segment:

• A mix of Random and Purposive interviews were conducted for this segment

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M Commerce India Market

Size & Projections

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The Framework• The research framework for market sizing of m-commerce users in India is an amalgamation of

insights gained from both primary (Qual & Quant) and secondary (desk) research. The broad

steps are detailed below

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Step 1

• Defining the Universe

• Estimating urban (above 14 years) population in tier-1,2 & 3 cities in India

• Projecting the estimated population to current year

• Estimating mobile penetration in tier-1,2 & 3 cities in India

Step 2

• Estimating Mobile Commerce users penetration

• Penetration of users by various services used

Step 3

• M-Commerce market size• Total number of users currently using these services

• Total number of transactions in volume & value terms

• Growth rate for estimating future market size of these services



Defining the Universe

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Total Population(Census ’91, ’01 &

11)

Urban PopulationTier – I, II & III

cities

Population Tier – I,II & III cities

Above 14 years age

Urban population above 14 years of age in Tier I, II & III cities of India

Current Urban population above 14 years of age in Tier I, II & III cities of India

DecadalGrowth Rate

From randomlistings

Current Mobile users in Urban population above 14 years of age in Tier I, II & IIIcities of India

From census

MobilePenetration



M-Commerce Services Market Sizing

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Current Mobile users in Urban population above 14 years of age in Tier I, II & III

cities of India

% subscribers usingMobile Recharge

Service

% subscribers usingRetail Purchase Service

% subscribers usingMobile Banking Service

% subscribers usingMobile Money

Remittance Service

Current mobile commerce users in Urban population above 14 years of age in Tier I,II & III cities of India

From Primary &Secondary Research

Growth Rate

Projected mobile commerce transactions in volume & value terms amongst Urbanpopulation (above 14 years of age in Tier I, II & III cities of India)

From PrimaryResearch

(The impact of increase in population and mobile subscribers with time has been taken

into account while arriving at the forecast for next 2 yrs)



• Ref to XL sheet

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Key Assumptions

• The market size pertains to universe of Tier 1, 2 & 3 cities (In all 73 cities of which 8 are Tier 1

cities, 27 are Tier 2 cities and 38 are Tier 3 cities)

• Census decadal growth rate used for arriving 2011 population projections –city wise

• Only those saying “Very Interested” (on a 5-point scale) to conduct m commerce transactionsover mobile phone/tablet PC over the next 1 year used for 2011-12 growth. We have used “Very Interested” and some part of “Interested” score to project for 2012-13 (Hence we have

discounted the claimed intention by not using complete top 2 box scores)

• We have taken into consideration only the active mobile users (and not the entire base claimedby operators). This is about 61.7% of the total number of subscribers reported by TRAI & wehave assumed this proportion will remain same for 2012-13

• To project for 2012-13 in volume and value terms we have used the average nos of transactions

p.a and the average last transaction value per subscriber per m commerce service respectivelyand assumed it will remain the same in 2012 & 13

• Population below 14 yrs of age is assumed to have no/negligible mobile ownership

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Total Value Market by Service

M Recharge M Retail M Banking M Remittance

2011 5,460 5,784 12,730 7,563

2012 31,965 39,491 118,333 72,811

2013 50,973 66,354 202,650 110,439

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Above mentioned figures are in Rs. mn



Thank You

Documents

Demand Est Example