Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
24/11/2015
1
Demand and Price Elasticity Modelling
Dr. Ji Yao a,b
The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are independent of employer of
the presenter or the Actuarial Profession
a. RPC Consulting b. University of Kent
Agenda
• Introduction
• Current approaches used in the market
• Common pitfalls and considerations of
the GLM approach
• Decision tree type approach
• Summary and Q & A
24/11/2015
2
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 3
Introduction
• The idea initiated by a CAS call for monograph in early 2015
• Purpose of this research
– Survey of different methods of conversion and elasticity models
– Research on new methods
– Not limited to insurance industry
3
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 4
What is demand model
• Demand is defined as the number of sales divided by number of
quotes/renewal invites
• Conventionally called ‘conversion model’ for new business and
‘retention model’ for renewal business
• Premium might or might not be a factor in the model
4
24/11/2015
3
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 5
What is price elasticity model
•Price elasticity measures the change in demand divided by the change
in premium, mathematically,
•Conventionally add the minus sign to make it a positive number
5
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Demand and price
elasticity model
Demand and price elasticity models are
important components in pricing analysis
6 Page 6
Risk cost /
expense
model
Quote
Pool
Conversion
model
Retention
model
Pricing
scenarios
Ageing
Models
In-
force
Pool
Total profit
Expected
profit per
quote
Iterate until
achieve
business
objective
• Price elasticity model is particularly important in price optimisation
24/11/2015
4
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72 Agenda
• Introduction
• Current approaches used in the market
• Common pitfalls and considerations of
the GLM approach
• Decision tree type approach
• Summary and Q & A
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 8
Current approaches used in the market
• One-way and two-way analysis
• Easy to calculate
• Ignore correlation in the explanatory variables
• Not suitable for complicated analysis
• Generalised linear model (GLM)
• Generalised non-linear model
• Guarantee that elasticity is always positive
• Computationally intensive
• Neural networks
• Understand the results is a challenge
24/11/2015
5
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 9
The GLM approach: price elasticity derived
from the demand model
Model setting
• Logit link function
• Binomial distribution error structure
• Linear component
d
not p
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 10
It is important to have randomised price tests
• GLM explains the difference in demand by normal rating
factors (age, area etc) and premium
• If the price test correlated with one rating factors, GLM will
get confused whether it is the rating factor or the price
difference cause the difference in demand
Age Demand
Young 10%
Old 20%
Age Demand -
Champion
Demand -
Challenge
Young 10% 20%
Old 20% 25%
Age Demand -
Champion
Demand –
Challenge
Young 20%
Old 20%
Base scenario Random price test
Extreme scenario: Young always gets discount
24/11/2015
6
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72 Agenda
• Introduction
• Current approaches used in the market
• Common pitfalls and considerations of
the GLM approach
• Decision tree type approach
• Summary and Q & A
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 12
Price elasticity can only be observed for a
group of risk
• Reconciliation of price elasticity at individual level is always
an approximation
Infinite elasticity
at £500
Infinite elasticity
at £450
24/11/2015
7
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 13
Non-linearity or break point are expected in
demand model
• Demand depends on the market premium and own premium
• Even simple pricing action can give non-linearity effect in
demand
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 14
Non-linearity or break point are expected in
demand model
• Demand depends on the market premium and own premium
• Even simple pricing action can give non-linearity effect in
demand
24/11/2015
8
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 15
Non-linearity or break point are expected in
demand model
• Demand depends on the market premium and own premium
• Even simple pricing action can give non-linearity effect in
demand
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015
• Where there is limited number of sales, the model largely
depend on extrapolation of neighbouring segments
16
Extrapolate of model is common but much
more dangerous
Demand in high
mileage relying on
the mid-range
mileage. It can't tell
the difference in
elasticity.
24/11/2015
9
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 17
Derived elasticity has high uncertainty
17
Elas = (15%-10%)/10%/5% = 10 If SD of conv is 10% of conv,
SD of Elas is
(1%^2+1.5%^2)^0.5/10%/5% = 3.6,
36% of Elas
• Uncertainty of price elasticity is compounded by uncertinty
of demand
• And dominated by the high uncertaint point
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 18
Model reconciliation
• One way chart
18
•How to calculate actual price
elasticy? Is it possible?
•How to calculate modelled
price elasticity?
•How to make them
consistent and comparable?
24/11/2015
10
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 19
Model reconciliation
• Lift curve is even more a challenge
19
•How to calculate model price
elasticity for individual
policy? What is the price
point?
•Calculate model and actual
price elasticity in bands is
same as one way chart
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 20
Understand the impact of model uncertainty
20
Risk cost /
expense
model
Conversion
model
Retention
model
Expected
profit per
quote
Optimal
premium
• This uncertainty is compounded with winner's curse
24/11/2015
11
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72 Agenda
• Introduction
• Current approaches used in the market
• Common pitfalls and considerations of
the GLM approach
• Decision tree type approach
• Summary and Q & A
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 22
Decision tree
22
24/11/2015
12
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 23
Idea of tree based approach
• Decision tree appraoch provides a top-down approach that focus on
segments
23
Champion Challenge
Elasticity = 5
Champion Challenge
Champion Challenge
Elasticity = 7
Elasticity = 3
• Split at a place that differentiate the price elasticity most
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 24
The idea of tree based approach
24
Champion Challeng
e
Champion Challenge
Elasticity = 7
Elasticity = 4
Cha
mpio
n
Chal
leng
e
Elasticity = 2
24/11/2015
13
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 25
GLM could be applied to adjust the difference in
mixture
• Algorithm
– Step 1: For each possible split, build a GLM on demand including price test as
a explanatory vairable. Record the impact of price test.
– Step 2: Find the split that has the maximum impact of price test
– Step 3: If stop criteria is not met, go to Step 1. Otherwise, stop.
– Step 4: Build GLM in each leaf of the tree
25
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015
Literatures
•Using Generalised Linear Model to Build Dynamic Pricing Systems, Karl P.
Murphy, Michael J. Brockman, and Peter K. W. Lee
•Beyond the Cost Model: Understanding Price Elasticity and Its Applications,
Serhat Guven, FCAS, MAAA, and Michael McPhail, FCAS, MAAA
•Real-World Uplift Modelling with Significance-Based Uplift Trees, Nicholas J.
Radcliffe
•An Application of Genetic Algorithms to Uplift Modelling, David P. Hofmeyr
•Optimal personalized treatment rules for marketing interventions: A review of
methods, a new proposal, and an insurance case study, Leo Guelman,
Montserrat Guillén and Ana M. Pérez-Marín
•Demand Modelling Working Party report, James Tanser, John Light, Sophia
Mealy and Owen Morris
26
24/11/2015
14
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015
Summary
•Demand and price elasticity models could be spuriously accurate
•Great attention is needed in model check and understanding
uncertainty
•Decision tree type model is a top-down approach that focus on
segments, that potentially reduce spurious accuracy
27
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
November 24, 2015 28
Expressions of individual views by members of the Institute and Faculty of
Actuaries and its staff are encouraged.
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter.
Questions Comments