DELTA

Emme

DELTA and Emme

Overview of Land Use and Transport modellingAuckland Transport Models 2 (ATM2)

Presented to University of Auckland (UNITS)

15 September 2009by John Davies

(partly based on DSC presentation)

File: ARC-Delta-UofA-15Sep09(JAD).ppt

DELTA

Emme

Presentation

To provide overview of ATM2

• ASP3.2 land use model (DELTA)

• ART3 transport model (Emme)

• Mapping

• Transport outputs

(examples indicative only)

DELTA

Emme

ATM2 Aims/Improvements

• Full LUTI modelling tool

• Re-based (data) from 1992 to 2006 (behaviour changes)

• Extended ARC region + Tuakau and Pokeno

• Finer zones (200 to 500) and networks

• Land use location model responds to accessibility, permitted development, HH transitions… for 50 yr horizon

• Improved car, PT and active models

• Network includes junction delay models (simple)

• Models daily person trips, later splits into periods (TOD)

DELTA

Emme

ATM2 Aims/Improvements

• Fully model AM/IP/PM (previously AM/IP)

• Improved PT model (only 6% of trips)

• Improved mode split (by purpose)

• Improved sub-models (car ownership,

motorway queuing)

• New CV models (MCV+HCV) and airport trips

• Improved forecasting capability/integration

• Peer reviewed >> international best practice

DELTA

Emme

• Full LUTI modelling is achieved when

– land-use model outputs (“planning data”) are used to

forecast transport demand

– transport model outputs (usually generalised travel

costs) are used as influences on land-use forecasts.

Land-use/transport interaction Modelling

DELTA

Emme

Model Process Outline

• Base inputs (2006)

– Economic (employment): Economic Futures

Model

– Population futures (ARC model)

– Scenario: capacities by Floor Space

category

• Transport networks

• Incremental land use / transport model

runs over time

• Outputs (text, post-process)

DELTA

Emme

ASP Model

ART ModelAPT Model

Roading City and Project

Models

transport costshouseholds &

employment

population &

employment

diverted car trips

mode shares, link speeds, OD

congestion factors

vehicle demands

Modelling in Auckland

and its Application

DELTA

Emme

DELTA scenario inputs

• Demographic scenario

– household transitions

– Children per household-with-children

• Employment scenario

– growth rates for employment by sector

– changes in socio-economic mix of jobs by sectors

– income levels for household types by composition,

socio-economic group and employment level

DELTA

Emme

Planning policy inputs

• Permissible development

– how much floor space of each type, in each zone,

might be developed

• Exogenous development

– Floor space that will definitely be developed

• Permissible development may be replaced with

explicit measures of land and zoned density for

ASP3.2

DELTA

Emme

Population Futures Inputs• 50 yrs of ARC pop projections - Compare to Delta outputs

Estimated Resident Population projections, 30 June (Auckland Region)

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

REGION 1996 Low REGION 1996 Population Medium REGION 1996 Population High REGION 1996 Population Low REGION 1996 Households Medium

REGION 1996 Households High REGION 1996 Households High REGION 2001 Low REGION 2001 Population Medium REGION 2001 Population High

REGION 2001 Population Low REGION 2001 Households Medium REGION 2001 Households High REGION 2001 Households Low REGION 2001 Labour force Medium

REGION 2001 Labour force High REGION 2006 Low REGION 2006 Population Medium REGION 2006 Population High REGION 2006 Empl (EFM)

Pop 1996

Pop 2001

Labour 2001

HH 1996HH 2001

Empl 2006

Pop 2006

DELTA

Emme

Economic Futures Inputs• 50 yrs of empl by sector, Convert to Delta sectors

ARC Region Employment Projections (EFM, 080411)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Th

ou

san

ds

FT

E

Industry Total

Industry Total

Industry Total

L

M

H

DELTA

Emme

Core Model Elements

DELTA

Emme

Residents

Developers

Property market

Labour market

Product markets

Transport market

Transport

infra-

structure

suppliers

Transport

service

suppliers

Firms

David Simmonds

Consultancy focus

DELTA

Emme

Components within 1 time period

SPACE

Development

(of floorspace)

Residential

Quality

ACTIVITY

Car Ownership

Location

Employment

(commuting)

Urban model

Transition

(Households )Migration

ACTIVITY

Regional

Economic

Model

Migration

ACTIVITY

Regional

Model

transport -influenced

DELTA

Emme

Transport system

Economic

model

(investment,

production

and trade)

Urban model

(household

and job

location,

commuting)

Migration model

(longer distance

household

movements)

labour demand

labour

property

consumption

property

costs

population

housing costs

migration

transport

coststransport

costs

travel

demands

physical/demand quantities

costs or generalised costs

immediate

time-lagged

freight

demands

Links between main submodels and

transport model

DELTA

Emme

+

HOUSEHOLD

LOCATION MODEL:

households, rents

Household transition

models

Housing development

model Housing quality

model

Employment status

and commuting

model

households

located

economic scenario

and employment

location models

average zonal

incomes

housing vacancy rate

housing

rents

new housing

second-hand housing

availability

households to locate

(total demand)

total housing

available to

households locating

(total supply)

new/arriving

households

relocating

households

transport

model

environmental

quality

accessibility to

work, services

etc

employment

levels

+

+

++

+

++

+

+

++

+

+

+

+

housing quality

-

+

DELTA

Emme

DELTA / transport Interaction

• Interface from DELTA to transport model

– mainly quantities (persons, households, empl)

• Interface from transport model to DELTA

– mainly generalised travel costs, but also

– numbers of trips (work and shop)

– car ownership

– environmental

DELTA

Emme

transport

Land-use

database

2006

Land-use

database

2007

Land-use

database

2008

Land-use

database

2009

Land-use

database

2010

Land-use

database

2011

transport

DELTA DELTA DELTA DELTA DELTA

Typical DELTA+transport model

sequence

DELTA

Emme

Transport model process

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Modal Split

Assignment

4 Step Model

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Modal Split

Assignment

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Modal Split

Assignment

4 Step Model

DELTA

Emme

What do you get out?

DELTA Results Processing

• Population and HH changes, annually by zone (512 zones)

• Total occupied space for each of 11 Fl Space categories by zone

• Vacant space for each of 11 Fl Space categories

• Change in rents by Fl Space category

• Transport network measures (every 5 yrs)

• Tables, Graphs, Maps

• Determine causality

• Examples

DELTA

Emme

DELTA Results – Data by Zone, by Year

DELTA

Emme

DELTA Results – Aggregated Data, by Year

DELTA

Emme

DELTA Results – Comparison Data, by Year

DELTA

Emme

DELTA Results – Zone Data, by Year

Select zone test or ref? Delta code

497 ref ap Test ap >> Zone 497

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

POPNTT POPNTT ref 1526 1567 1588 1610 1626 1641 1652 1663 1671 1679 1688 1697 1713 1738 1768 1804 1851 1907 1969 2033 2090 2139 2169

HHLDTT HHLDTT ref 475 495 506 513 515 518 522 526 529 534 541 546 555 571 588 607 629 656 684 712 735 754 761

EMPLTT EMPLTT ref 1188 1199 1207 1211 1211 1208 1204 1200 1194 1189 1182 1179 1176 1174 1174 1175 1184 1194 1206 1222 1241 1269 1301

CHLDTT CHLDTT ref 447 447 445 445 445 445 444 445 445 444 442 441 440 440 441 443 449 457 466 476 487 498 506

RETDTT RETDTT ref 81 89 96 102 108 114 122 130 137 145 152 159 166 173 179 186 196 206 216 226 237 249 262

RWKRTT RWKRTT ref 687 710 722 737 742 751 753 754 754 755 758 760 767 780 796 815 838 867 899 932 961 982 993

NWKRTT NWKRTT ref 311 321 326 326 331 331 333 334 335 335 336 337 340 346 352 359 367 378 388 399 406 410 407

NonHldPop NonHldPop ref 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21

497 test an Test an >> Zone 497

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

POPNTT POPNTT test 1526 1567 1589 1612 1630 1648 1661 1675 1688 1701 1711 1727 1761 1822 1907 2026 2180 2365 2580 2813 3044 3275 3477

HHLDTT HHLDTT test 475 495 507 515 519 524 529 535 541 547 553 561 582 617 663 725 802 889 988 1087 1181 1276 1350

EMPLTT EMPLTT test 1188 1199 1207 1212 1214 1213 1212 1211 1209 1206 1200 1200 1199 1200 1207 1215 1242 1281 1340 1425 1538 1667 1917

CHLDTT CHLDTT test 447 447 445 444 445 444 443 444 445 444 443 443 444 447 454 467 486 512 545 583 626 675 721

RETDTT RETDTT test 81 89 96 102 108 114 122 130 137 145 152 160 167 175 183 192 205 220 237 257 277 301 325

RWKRTT RWKRTT test 687 710 722 739 745 756 759 763 767 770 773 779 797 832 881 948 1033 1135 1254 1380 1504 1620 1720

NWKRTT NWKRTT test 311 321 326 327 332 334 336 338 340 342 342 345 353 369 390 419 455 497 544 593 638 679 710

NonHldPop NonHldPop test 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21

NOTE: SCALES DIFFER

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

20

42

20

44

20

46

20

48

20

50

Delta Zone Data

POPNTT

HHLDTT

EMPLTT

CHLDTT

RETDTT

RWKRTT

NWKRTT

NonHldPop

Test ap >> Zone 497

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

20

42

20

44

20

46

20

48

20

50

Delta Zone Data

POPNTT

HHLDTT

EMPLTT

CHLDTT

RETDTT

RWKRTT

NWKRTT

NonHldPop

Test an >> Zone 497

DELTA

Emme

DELTA Results – GIS Interface

DELTA

Emme

Population 2001 and 2016 (dc)

Green = Decrease

Red = Increase

DELTA

Emme

Population 2051 and Housing Space growth 2001-51

DELTA

Emme

EMME Results - Examples

DELTA

Emme

DELTA

Emme

2041 AM with Current Rail Network

Britomart

1,100 boardings

13,000 alightings

Newmarket

1,100 boardings

4,500 alightings

Total Rail, 2-hours:

2,200 boardings

17,500 alightings

Services: 18 trains per 2-hours

to the CBD

DELTA

Emme

2041 AM with CBD Rail LoopBritomart

1,500 boardings

6,800 alightings

Newmarket

1,000 boardings

4,100 alightings

Total Rail 2-hr:

4,800 boardings

25,400 alightings

Karangahape

Road

600 boardings

1,900 alightings

Midtown

1,400 boardings

8,400 alightingsParnell

300 boardings

4,200 alightings

Services: 88 trains per 2-hours

to the CBD

DELTA

Emme

Transport Outputs (Time)• 50 yrs of ART model

standouts every 5 yrs

• Charts, Tables

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Persons

CarD

CaPax

PT

Act ive

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Veh kilometres

Veh minutes

Vehicle Trips

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

AM Veh IP Veh PM Veh

Veh

icle

Tri

ps (

2-h

r)

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

2041

2046

2051

Active Trips

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Da

ily

Tri

ps

HBW Active

HBE Active

HBS Active

HBO Active

DELTA

Emme

87.3%76.4%

82.6%76.8% 76.2% 76.5%

0.0%

3.2%

8.4%7.3%

8.0% 8.5% 8.2%

0.0%

9.5%15.3%

10.1%15.3% 15.3% 15.3%

0.0%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2006 U

pd

Jul0

9

2041R

LT

S

PO

Jul0

9

2041R

LT

S

NoT

DM

2041

Budget

PT

P

O

2041 P

O

03S

ep

2041 P

O

Budget

03S

ep 0 0

Mo

de S

plit

(%)

Weekday Daily Modal Split

Daily Active

Daily PT

Daily Car

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

2006

Upd

Jul0

9

2041R

LT

S

PO

Ju

l09

2041R

LT

S

NoT

DM

2041

Budge

t P

T

PO

2041

PO

03S

ep

2041

PO

B

udge

t …

0 0

Tri

ps

Weekday Daily Person Trips

Daily Active

Daily PT

Daily Car

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

AM B+R+F IP B+R+F PM B+R+F 3Pk B+R+F

ART3: PT Service kms

2006 Upd Jul09

2041RLTS PO Jul09

2041RLTS NoTDM

2041 Budget PT PO

2041 PO 03Sep

Transport Outputs (Compare)

DELTA

Emme

Test without TDMGreen = increase

Red = decrease

TDM

Vehicles

(AM)PT (AM) Item SO2 Without

TDM

Effect

of TDM

Vehicle

trips

683,000 774,000 -12%

PT

trips

130,000 125,000 +4%

Speed 37.2

km/h

34.1

km/h

+9%

Active

Trips

(24 hr)

982,000 686,000 +43%

Time 15.4

min

15.7

min

-2%

% LOS

E-F

16.9% 19.4% -13%

NOTE: This test compares

SO2, with and

without TDM, not

SO4.

Effect of TDM

Green = Supports targets

Red = Against targets

DELTA

Emme

More stuff

DELTA

Emme

Process Status – Testing Phase

Economic Futures / ARDEEM

Transport

Options

Land Use Options

Base Option 1 Option 2

Base

PT

Auto

One scenario

Inform

development

of preferred

regional

scenario

(2008-09)

Build up

“Tests”

Regional Population Model

DELTA

Emme

Thank You

• Questions???