1

S

DELIVERING NOW FOR A 15degC FUTURE RAMPING UP CLIMATE AMBITION AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL Country case studies for improving NDCs to reach Paris goals

2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In this report WWF analyses the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of more than 10 very diverse countries in all regions of the world

For each of those countries we provide a brief description of the NDC and information on progress on implementation and on the political context in country regarding ambition increase We also look at the potential for increased ambition in each country Based on this and on the political and social context for the country we present specific recommendations to achieve ambition in each NDC such as

Increasing support for renewable energies and energy efficiency to underpin ambitious renewables and efficiency targets (eg Chile China EU Mexico)

Strengthening measures and policies in agriculture forestry and land use (AFOLU) (Brazil Madagascar Chile)

Phasing out fossil fuels subsidies and exploitation (Brazil Chile Norway)

Improving carbon pricing mechanisms (Chile Mexico Norway New Zealand South Africa)

Early peaking and South-south cooperation (China)

Phasing out coal use (Chile China EU South Africa)

Contributing a fair share of global emissions reductions by moving to net zero emissions by 2040 (EU)

Just transition (EU South Africa NZ)

Efficiency in the transport sector (NZ UK) Electromobility (Chile)

Adaptation plans and policies (Brazil Madagascar)

Aligning private and public financial flows with climate objectives (EU Mexico)

Technology development for decarbonising the industry sector (Norway UK)

Set the conditions for financing the investments needed to reach 15degC (Brazil China EU Mexico)

Recommendations for governments on enabling conditions to maximise the contribution of Non-State Actors are also presented as we believe they should play a key role in enhancing climate action and ambition

The aim is to showcase that more ambition is not only necessary and urgent but also possible We want to highlight untapped potential as well as tools to leverage greater climate ambition on the national level To meet the Paris goals countries need to make a collective effort that starts at home WWF offers recommendations to achieve this based on the work and views of its National Offices across the world

In this paper we are setting out the context of the identified emissions reductions gap that still remains The Ambition Mechanism introduced in the Paris Agreement is also addressed Finally case studies from selected countries set out how governments should address the need for greater ambition from a WWF perspective We hope our contribution is useful and can inspire countries to announce enhanced NDCs by 2020

3

Contents

IPCC and the gap to meeting Paris Agreement goals 4 The Paris Agreement and its Ambition Mechanism 6

Action on the national level ndash Case Studies on improving NDCs 7

Brazil Case Study 8

Chile Case Study 11

China Case Study 14

European Union Case Study 17

Madagascar Case Study 21

Mexico case study 24

New Zealand Case Study 27

Norway Case Study 31

South Africa Case Study 35

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Case Study 38

Vietnam Case Study 41

Non-state actor responses 44

Conclusions 46

COPYRIGHT copyWWF Climate amp Energy Practice 2017 All Rights Reserved

AUTHORS

Mark Lutes and Fernanda Carvalho (WWF International) Kristin Reissig (WWF Germany) Inga Fritzen Buan (WWF Norway) Stephen Cornelius and Garreth Redmond (WWF UK)Andreacute Nahur Eduardo Canina and Renata Camargo (WWF Brazil) Mariana Panuncio (WWF US)Ryan Finnegan (WWF US) Alan Strait (WWF US) Tabareacute Arroyo-Curra (WWF Sweden)Paula Tassara Soliacutes (WWF Chile) Leia Achampong (WWF EPO)Harisoa Hasina Rakotondrazafy (WWF Madagascar) Ninel Escobar Montecinos (WWF Mexico)David Tong (WWF New Zealand) Prabhat Upadhyaya (WWF South Africa)Louise Naudeacute (WWF South Africa) Vietnam Vu Quoc Anh (WWW Vietnan) Zhang Nan (WWF China)Wang Weikang (WWF China) Ding Ying (WWF China)

CONTRIBUTORS

With support by WWF UK and WWF Germany

WWF Climate amp Energy Practice

EDITORAnn Gardiner

4

IPCC AND THE GAP TO MEETING PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS In 2018 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a special report on the impacts of global warming of 15degC and related global greenhouse gas emissions pathways This report was prepared in response to an invitation contained in the Decision to adopt the Paris Agreement

The report concludes that global warming is likely to reach 15 between 2030 and 2052 if warming continues to increase at the current rate To halt anthropogenic global warming in the next few decades would require reaching and sustaining net-zero global CO2 emissions and declining net non-CO2 radiative forcing On longer timescales net negative CO2 emissions andor further reductions in non-CO2 radiative forcing may still be required to prevent further warming

If the commitments given in the current NDCs submitted under the Paris Agreement are met emissions in 2030 are estimated to be 52-58 GtCO2yr-1 This level of emissions would not limit global warming to 15 even if there were very challenging increases in the scale and ambition of emission reductions after 2030 If the temperature rise is to be limited to 15degC with no or limited overshoot emissions must be below 35 GtCO2yr-1 by 20301 The lower the emissions in 2030 the lower the challenge in limiting global warming to 15degC after 2030 with no or limited overshoot

Limiting global warming to 15degC requires rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy land urban environment and infrastructure such as transport and buildings and industrial systems The rate of system change required has occurred in the past but only within specific sectors technologies or geographies and not at the scale that will now be needed to meet Paris goals Specific changes in pathways limiting global warming to 15degC include

Lower energy use through enhanced energy efficiency and fast electrification of energy end use

Renewables providing 70-85 of electricity in 2050

Increasing nuclear and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage

CO2 emissions from industry decreasing by 75-90 in 2050 relative to 2010

Share of low emission final energy in the transport sector rising from less than 5 in 2030 to about 35-65 in 2050

Large transitions in global and regional land use - their scale depending on the mitigation portfolio

Annual average energy-related mitigation investment for the period 2015-2050 around US$ 900 billion

In addition to reducing emissions all pathways with limited or no overshoot of 15degC project the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) Significant near-term emissions reductions and measures to lower energy and land demand can limit CDR deployment

There are multiple synergies and trade-offs between mitigation options deployed in 15degC consistent pathways and the sustainable development goals Pathways that include low energy demand low material consumption and low greenhouse gas intensive food consumption have the

1 All but one of the pathways limiting global warming to 15 have emissions below this level by 2030

5

most pronounced synergies and the lowest number of trade-offs with respect to sustainable development

Even with 15degC global warming there will be increased climate-related risks to health livelihoods food security water supply human security and economic growth If the temperature increases to 2degC the risks are still higher The figure below illustrates some of the impacts and risks for people economies and ecosystems at different degrees of warming Already at 15degC there are high risks associated with unique and threatened systems (ecological and human ecosystems with restricted geographic range eg coral reefs and the Arctic and its indigenous peoples) and extreme weather events At 2degC there are high to very high risks across all the Reasons for Concern

Source IPCC Special report on Global Warming of 15 degrees Celsius Summary for Policy Makers

A wide range of adaptation options are available to reduce the risks to ecosystems but at 2degC adaptation is expected to be more challenging for ecosystems food and health systems than for 15degC Even at 15degC vulnerable regions such as small islands are projected to face multiple and interrelated climate risks

6

The message to be taken from the IPCC report is thus that to limit the worst impacts of climate change on ecosystems and humans significantly more ambitious action is needed from all levels of government the private sector and civil society

THE PARIS AGREEMENT AND ITS AMBITION MECHANISM The Paris Agreementrsquos central goal is to limit global temperature rise to well below 2degC above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit still further to 15degC

The agreement also aims to strengthen the ability of countries to deal with the impacts of climate change NDCs represent the contribution of each Party towards meeting the goals of the Agreement Developed country Parties are asked to take the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets Developing country Parties are encouraged over time to move towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets

The Paris Agreement was adopted by Decision 1CP21 This Decision emphasises the urgent need to address the gap between the emissions which would result from the aggregate pledges of the Parties and the emissions needed to hold the temperature to well below 2degC In recognising this gap it also emphasises the urgency of implementing the Kyoto Protocol to enhance pre-2020 ambition Measures set out in the Decision to enhance action pre-2020 include strengthening the technical examination process enhancement of the provision of urgent finance technology and support and measures to strengthen high-level engagement

The Paris Agreement established a five-year cycle for communication of the NDCs with increasing ambition in each subsequent NDC Submitted NDCs have different timeframes for their commitments some have 2025 timeframes others 2030 Decision 1CP21 encourages countries with a 2025 timescale to submit new NDCs by 2020 while those with 2030 timeframes are called upon to update their NDC by 2020 The Talanoa Dialogue which is the renamed facilitative dialogue from the Decision was launched in January 2018 to drive higher ambition in the NDCs submitted in 2020

For every five year cycle NDCs must be submitted at least 9 to 12 months in advance of the relevant Conference of Parties (COP) This is to allow time for the UNFCCC secretariat to synthesise the NDCs in a report As part of the five-year cycle there will also be a global stocktake on collective progress towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement - the first being in 2023 The outcomes from the stocktake will inform Parties in updating and enhancing their actions and support and enhance international cooperation The design of the global stocktake and the sources of information to be used are still being negotiated

In addition to the sufficiently ambitious NDCs all Parties should strive to formulate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies These should take into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in the light of different national circumstances They are invited to communicate these strategies to the UNFCCC secretariat by 2020 To date only a few countries have communicated these strategies

7

ACTION ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL ndash CASE STUDIES ON IMPROVING NDCS As WWF is present in about 100 different countries and works closely with national governments on developing national climate policies and strategies and implementing NDCs we have assembled this series of ten case studies to contribute to discussions and inspire further climate action and ambition at COP 24 and beyond

The case studies presented in this section describe the current commitments in NDCs2 in a selection of countries discuss the developments in those countries with regard to climate change action and include recommendations to increase ambition in those NDCs

2 Submitted NDCs can be viewed at httpswww4unfcccintsitesNDCStagingPagesAllaspx

8

BRAZIL CASE STUDY Description of NDC The Brazilian NDC set the goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37 below 2005 levels in 2025 As a subsequent indicative contribution Brazil intends to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43 below 2005 levels in 2030 Brazilrsquos NDC is economy wide and consistent with the long-term vision of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2degC above pre-industrial levels

In addition Brazilrsquos commitments included specific targets to increase the share of sustainable biofuels in the Brazilian energy mix to approximately 18 by 2030 by expand biofuel consumption increase ethanol supply strengthen policies and measures with a view to achieving zero illegal deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon by 2030 restore and reforest 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 restore an additional 15 million hectares of degraded pasturelands by 2030 and enhance 5 million hectares of integrated cropland-livestock-forestry systems by 2030 achieve 45 of renewables in the energy mix by 2030 including expanding the use of renewable energy sources other than hydropower in the total energy mix to between 28 and 33 by 2030 among other commitments

Regarding adaptation the Brazilian NDC commits to implementing policies and measures to adapt to climate change and contribute to building resilience of populations ecosystems infrastructure and production systems by reducing vulnerability and through the provision of ecosystem services The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) is one of the policies to be implemented

Photo copy Paulo de Abreu Shutterstockcom

9

Progress in implementation Over the last three years Brazilian society has made some advances in raising awareness about the strategy for implementation of the Brazilian NDC Several studies workshops and sectoral contributions were presented to guide government decisions on the Brazilian commitments to the Paris Agreement Among the studies we highlight a document from Brazilian Forum of Climate Change (FBMC acronym in Portuguese wwwfbmccombr ) ldquoShort-term Measures for Implementation of the Brazilian NDCrdquo3

In August 2018 the document was delivered to the President Michel Temer by the FBMC The president signed an act requesting the Forum to elaborate a position on the possibilities of reaching this long-term goal by 2060 This is the first time that Brazil has signaled this goal and the first step in Brazilrsquos positioning in relation to a long-term strategy for net-zero emissions

Other important documents are also ldquoIES-Brasil - Economic and Social Implications GHG Mitigation Scenarios 2030rdquo4 a scenario study that shows the economic and social benefits of NDC compliance and the additional benefits of increased ambition of mitigation targets (this study was supported by WWF-Brazil) and ldquoOptions for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation in Key Sectors of Brazilrdquo5 a study that estimates the potential and costs of GHG emission abatement through an integrated economic-energy analysis for the period between 2012 and 2050 in the different key sectors

Potential for increased ambition Systematically and annually reduce anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases for

the whole of Brazilrsquos economy by a maximum of 1 GtCO2e in 2030

Strengthen policies and measures to achieve the zero conversion of natural habitat of all biomes by 2030 and the reduction of deforestation rates of all biomes by 50 by 2020 and by 80 by 2025 in relation to the base year 2015

Restore and reforest 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 prioritizing the restoration of liabilities in permanent preservation areas (APPs)

Extend the scale of forest management systems in the Amazon to reach 20 million hectares by 2030 through georeferencing systems for forest production and traceability of their products with a view to discouraging illegal and unsustainable practices

3 httpsdrivegooglecomfiled1Z3f2vVILNx12ciZzTNGOE72qbQC4hcrdview

4httpwwwcentroclimacoppeufrjbrimagesNoticiasdocumentosies-brasil-20301_sumario-executivo-portuguespdf

5httpswwwmcticgovbrmcticopencmscienciaSEPEDclimaopcoes_mitigacaoOpcoes_de_Mitigacao_de_Emissoes_de_Gases_de_Efeito_Estufa_GEE_em_SetoresChave_do_Brasilhtml

10

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Brazil had Presidential elections in October 2018 It is unclear whether the new government that will take office on January 1st 2019 will maintain the same level of commitment to the NDC implementation as the previous government

Recommendations Brazil has the potential to increase ambition in the NDC Recommendations to achieve this include

Create a plan to discourage investments in new fossil fuel power plants Increase investment for non-hydro renewable sources aiming at the resilience and safety of the national electricity mix

Create instruments for the improvement of financing lines for microgeneration

Develop an efficient industrial policy to promote the competitiveness of non-hydro renewables

Expand biofuel and food production in degraded pasture areas

Accelerate implementation of the Forest Code ensuring public transparency and social control

Increase recovery of degraded pastures

Strengthen technical assistance to implement sustainable practices and improvement of productivity in livestock

11

CHILE CASE STUDY Description of NDC Chile has pledged unconditional conditional (on international financial support in the form of grants) and specific land-use and land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) targets Unconditionally Chile committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of GDP to 30 below 2007 levels by 2030 This target covers the energy industrial processes and waste sectors Climate Action Tracker (2018) estimates that this will lead to GHG emissions levels of 154 above 1990 and 42 above 2010 excluding LULUCF based on current GDP projections managed by the government6 The conditional target is a 35ndash45 reduction of GHG emission intensity of GDP below 2007 levels by 2030 which according to Climate Action Tracker is equivalent to 100ndash136 above 1990 levels and 12ndash24 above 2010 GHG emissions levels excluding LULUCF Regarding LULUCF Chile pledged to sustainably manage and recover 100000 hectares (ha) of forest by 2030 and to reforest 100000 ha subject to approval of new laws Chile is one of the few countries to separate the LULUCF sector target from other emissions which increases the transparency of its proposed actions On adaptation Chile pledged to develop sectoral adaptation plans to establish specific measures and mechanisms to measure progress

Progress in implementation Since COP21 the Chilean Government has made significant progress in elaborating national plans for mitigation in the energy sector and for adaptation following a sector-specific approach including forestry and agriculture infrastructure biodiversity fisheries health and cities Moreover under the Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) initiative supported by the World 6 httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieschile

12

Bank Chile has been analysing carbon pricing options since 2015 Although the current carbon tax remains ineffective in terms of mitigation outcomes (US$5tCO2) institutional capacity was built for monitoring and reporting for the largest CO2 emissions sources at the national level In 2017 Chile issued a National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) which includes the first national-level Emissions Reduction Programme that targets reductions in the rates of land and forest degradation and also increasing forest carbon capture through reforestation It is expected that over a period of 9 years improvements in AFOLU-related policies and in management programs would contribute significantly towards Chileacutes NDC while accessing results-based-payments in the carbon market7 However a mega fire outbreak in early 2017 affecting 600000 ha of forest plantations grasslands and native forests demonstrated the vulnerability of land - both encompassed by this Programme and beyond it - to climate change

The frequency and extent of fires in the Centre and South of Chile is the greatest factor of uncertainty and could be determinant in shaping Chileacutes future GHG emissions trajectory Before 2017 the AFOLU sector was a net absorber of emissions mostly associated to the expansion of forest plantations and played a significant role in reducing the overall net balance of emissions However excluding AFOLU since 1990 net national emissions steadily rose due to increasing rate of burning of fossil fuels (IPCC energy sector) This overall trend continues today

Potential for increased ambition In the run-up to a revised NDC in 2020 the greatest potential for increased ambition lies in GHG mitigation in the energy generation sector Chiles geography political stability robust economy and energy market conditions create an exceptional environment to accelerate the transition to a low emissions economy Nevertheless this will require phase-out of coal capacity before it reaches end-of-life Coal reached 53 of installed capacity in May 20188 versus 18 of current renewable capacity In early 2018 Chile announced that it will not build any new coal-fired power plants (without CCS) and will develop a plan to phase out coal as coal-fired power permitting has stalled in recent years due to the comparatively low costs of renewable energy Current solar PV and onshore wind costs in Chile are as low as US$ 003kWh to US$ 004kWh9 However under business as usual (BAU) conditions the fact that a significant portion of coal plants have been built in recent years means that projections are for a 19 share for coal in electricity generation in 2050 This share would need to be close to zero to make Chileacutes energy sector compatible to 15degC10 Chiles Ministry of Energy is leading a roundtable to analyse the best options for the decommissioning or reconversion of coal-plant capacity but there is still the need for strong political will corporate leadership and citizen engagement to ensure that Chile can include coal-phase out as a key measure for increased NDC ambition in 2020

The National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) launched in 2017 provides a solid foundation to scale-up and integrate other land-based and nature-based mitigation and adaptation solutions particularly through forest landscape restoration This is an opportunity to reduce the severity of extensive fires Work through this strategy to increase landscape resilience will help ensure baseline conditions are maintained and take advantage of the opportunity to capture mitigation and reduced land vulnerability (adaptation) In this context a national forest restoration plan with the goal of restoring up to 1M ha coupled with watershed management measures and scaled-up plans for biodiversity protection (such as those proposed under the National Adaptation Plan for Biodiversity) would show clear signs of Chilersquos commitment Mitigation in LULUCF is still a low hanging fruit for increased NDC mitigation ambition that addresses further social and environmental needs for adaptation and sustainable development while opening the opportunity to integrate ecosystem protection for future generations

7 httpwwwconafclcmseditorwebENCCRVNota-Informativa-24pdf 8 httpgeneradorascldocumentosboletinesboletin-mercado-electrico-sector-generacion-junio-2018

9 httpswwwirenaorgpublications2018JanRenewable-power-generation-costs-in-2017

10 Climate Tracker 2018

13

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Chilersquos 2050 Energy Policy (PE2050) aims for renewable targets of at least 60 by 2035 and 70 by 2050 for electricity generation Recently the Energy Route 2018-2022 the Mitigation Plan for the Energy Sector and the Electromobility Strategy stand out as complementary policies that together should foster increased energy efficiency scaling-up small distributed energy and introducing 100 electric public transport and 40 electric private vehicle fleet by 2050 These developments represent strong signals for change however there is still the need to determine how the government will deploy measures improve enabling conditions for the private sector and ensure a participatory approach with citizens particularly in the cases where local impact is expected Furthermore there is an urgent need to accelerate adaptation response across the territory While adaptation sectoral plans are being developed at the national level it is crucial to move forward in implementation plans with strong local and regional participation

Recommendations For Chile to increase its NDC ambition it should

Include the mitigation resulting from a national agreement and plan to phase out coal-fired generation in the NDC in 2020 The government companies and local community representatives should continue working on transparent criteria to determine the timelines support and measures involved in the decommissioning of each unit

By 2020 improve the design and expand the scope of the current carbon tax to include other highly emitting sectors Establishing a gradually rising carbon price will provide more certainty to investors that play a key role in scaling up the implementation of climate-compatible projects

For successful coal phase-out the NDC should include a commitment to work with the private sector and civil society to ensure enabling policy conditions for renewable energy capacity to replace coal-fired capacity by building a reliable efficient inclusive sustainable and secure system

The NDC can also include at least a portion of mitigation results expected by 2030 through the implementation of the Electromobility Plan launched in 2018 Including electromobility in Chileacutes NDC will reflect institutional commitment on this matter which in turn will better position this emerging market in the map of investors

Introduce a significantly stronger target for forest landscape restoration (up to 1M ha) that accelerates national action and accesses international support to reduce the exposure to water scarcity and conditions leading to fires which peak LULUCF emissions (as in 2016-17) Moreover a commitment to develop land-based (including nature-based) adaptation measures is increasingly critical to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience across the country

Support increased NDC ambition in 2020 by pooling mitigation potentials by 2030 from coal phase out the expansion of renewable energy utility and distributed capacity and progress in electromobility While fires are becoming a great factor of uncertainty it is still possible and necessary to increase LULUCFAFOLU mitigation ambition Chile is already piloting results-based-payments and further reforestation and reducing land and forest degradation are critical to reduce vulnerability strengthen resilience and adaptation while also protecting essential ecosystem services biodiversity and to incentivise decentralised sustainable development

14

CHINA CASE STUDY Description of NDC China submitted its NDC to the UNFCCC in June 2015 It covers targets policies and implementation measures for both mitigation and adaptation

The key targets of the NDC to be achieved around or by 2030 are summarized as follows a) to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and make best efforts to peak earlier than that b) to lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65 from the 2005 level c) to increase the share of non-fossil fuels11 in primary energy consumption to around 20 and d) to increase the forest stock volume by around 45 billion cubic meters compared to 2005

To achieve this a series of policies and measures were proposed including for energy system industry buildings transportation and carbon sinks

As for adaptation China proposed to ldquoproactively adapt to climate change by enhancing mechanisms and capacities to effectively defend against climate change risks in key areasrdquo and to ldquoprogressively strengthen early warning and emergency response systems and disaster prevention and reduction mechanismsrdquo covering various sectors including agriculture forestry and water resources as well as in cities coastal and ecologically vulnerable areas

Progress in implementation Chinarsquos 2020 target to reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45 was reached already in 2017 and the target for forest stock volume was also over-fulfilled With Chinarsquos renewable energy industry boom the proportion of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption increased to 138 by

11 Non-fossil fuels here mean renewables and nuclear energy

Photo copy

ArtisticP

hoto Shutterstockcom

z

15

2017 These achievements also give China a solid foundation to reach its 2030 targets before that date

Coal consumption control and the transition from coal to non-fossil fuels might be the most important drivers for Chinarsquos progress While coal remains the dominant fuel in China the percentage of coal in total energy consumption decreased from 724 in 2005 to 604 in 2017 In contrast Chinarsquos renewable energy sector is booming According to REN21 China ranks as the worldrsquos leader in total renewables capacity and also in solar PV wind and geothermal heating capacity and investment in renewables capacity12 By the end of 2017 Chinarsquos total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 650GW with massive growth in wind and solar power especially It is estimated that Chinarsquos proportion of non-fossil energy sources will reach and surpass 15 by 2020

The policies issued and the actions implemented by Chinese government and other stakeholders will ensure a full fulfillment of the commitment that Chinese government has pledged to the international society Most prominently Chinarsquos international pledges and national targets are backed up by national strategies policies and detailed implementation measures with transparency and accountability mechanism

Potential for increased ambition According to a survey done by the China Carbon Forum 87 of respondents expect China to achieve the carbon emissions peak by 2030 the latest and 48 even expect it by 2025 or earlier13 Most of the research revealed that China could peak earlier than or well before 2030 and one study shows that Chinarsquos carbon emissions are likely to peak between 2020 and 202214 Given its economic restructuring potential China could achieve an emissions peak around 2023 with efforts in energy efficiency lowering the CO2 intensity in Chinarsquos GDP by just over 71 by 2030 compared to 2005 thus exceeding the NDC target of 60-6515

The transition trend from coal to renewables and other low carbon energy sources might be a great driver for China to overachieve its 2030 targets A new study released by the China National Renewable Energy Centre reveals that it is possible and beneficial for Chinarsquos fossil fuel use to peak in 2020 and decline steadily towards 203516 According to a 2015 WWF report around 84 of Chinarsquos electricity generation can be met with renewable sources by mid-century and the number is expected to be 49 in 203017

Given the above progress and scenario analyses we believe China has the potential to improve its NDC in terms of the peaking timeline share of non-fossil fuel in the primary energy consumption and carbon intensity targets showing more leadership as a torchbearer in global climate governance There is also reason to expect China to soon propose a long-term strategy for 2050 under the 15degC and 2degC scenarios

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Chinese government has shown strong political will on environmental protection in recent years through emphasizing the concept of ldquoecological civilizationrdquo Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China the environment has risen to an unprecedented status

12 REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report

13 China Carbon Forum 2018 ldquo2018 China Carbon Pricing Surveyrdquo

14 Chinadialogue 5 June 2018 ldquoRoundtable Is China still on track to reach its Paris targetsrdquo httpswwwchinadialoguenetarticleshowsingleen10653-Roundtable-Is-China-still-on-track-to-reach-its-Paris-targets- 15 Qilin Liu Qi Lei Huiming Xu etal ldquoChinarsquos energy revolution strategy into 2030rdquo in Resources Conservation and Recycling 2018 128 78-89

16 China National Renewable Energy Center 2018 ldquoChina Renewable Energy Outlook 2018rdquo

17 WWF 2015 ldquoChinarsquos Future Generation 20rdquo httpsd2ouvy59p0dg6kcloudfrontnetdownloadschina_s_future_generation_2_0_reportpdf

16

in the national development agenda The main driving force for environmental protection is the need for sustainable development including the need to fight air pollution

While US President Donald Trump has announced that the US will be pulling out of the Paris Agreement the China government has several times reaffirmed its commitment to the Agreement and the countryrsquos targets However it should also be noted that international trade tension between China and the US and the domestic challenges of slower economic growth arising from that have resulted in some conservative arguments against ambitious climate action in China18

Recommendations For China to reach its sustainable development ambition and goal of becoming an ldquoecological civilizationrdquo by mid-century and when considering the need for urgent and ambitious climate actions to avoid global warming over 15degC it should take the following actions

Revise its climate targets and commitments under the Paris Agreement by 2020 by

Bringing the timeline for emissions peaking to around 2022

Proposing a carbon emission reduction pathway for the period after the peaking to be in line with the Paris Agreementrsquos 15-2degC target

Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy to achieve a higher share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030

Accelerate its energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by

Strengthening coal consumption control halting new coal power and eliminating inefficient capacity

Reducing dispersed coal burning through efficiency improvement reduction and clean energy replacement

Accelerating power sector reform to create an environment for promoting large-scale and distributed deployment of renewable energy

Enhance international cooperation to take more leadership in addressing global climate change by

Supporting other developing countries to improve their capacity to achieving their climate targets through south-south cooperation on climate change

Shifting Chinarsquos oversea energy investments from coal to renewables to accelerate the pace and scale of the worldrsquos transition to a sustainable model of energy and development

18 Li Shuo 28 October 2018 ldquoDoes China Still Want to Be a Global Environmental Leaderrdquo httpsthediplomatcom201810does-china-still-want-to-be-a-global-environmental-leader

17

EUROPEAN UNION CASE STUDY Description of NDC The EU NDC purely focuses on mitigation outlining the agreed EU domestic emissions reduction target the implementation process and a narrative on why the EU believes its NDC is fair and ambitious This submission covers the collective contribution of the EU and the 28 Member States

The commitment is for the EU and the Member States to achieve an unconditional economy-wide ldquobinding target of an at least 40 domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990rdquo on 100 of emissions to be achieved domestically without the use of international credits19 The commitment period for the target is from January 1st 2021 (the EUrsquos second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol ends on December 31st 2020) to December 31st 2030 Additional legislation was created to facilitate the achievement of this goal including on LULUCF energy and transport The NDC holds no concrete information on any non-mitigation elements eg adaptation climate finance loss amp damage Complementing its NDC is the European Commission Communication lsquoThe Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 202020 which briefly discusses basic elements on several issues including climate finance adaptation and mitigation cycles

Progress in implementation The EUrsquos 2030 climate and energy framework21 -politically agreed in October 2014- forms the basis of its NDC The various pieces of legislation that pursue the attainment of the NDC target were agreed between 2016 and 2018 by EU Member States and European Parliament Of note based on the EUrsquos own calculations new legislative targets on renewable energy uptake and 19 European Commission (2015) Environment Council approves the EUs intended nationally determined contribution to the new global climate agreement Available at httpseceuropaeuclimanewsarticlesnews_2015030601_en 20 European Commission 2015 The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 httpeceuropaeutransparencyregdocrep12015EN1-2015-81-EN-F1-1PDF

21 European Commission 2014 European Council Conclusions httpwwwconsiliumeuropaeuuedocscms_datadocspressdataenec145397pdf

Photo copy

Hung C

hung Chih Shutterstockcom

z

18

energy efficiency measures mean that the EUrsquos emissions (if all Member States achieve these targets) will be reduced by 4522 by 2030 However this higher target is by no means in line with achieving 15degC or with becoming a net-zero economy well-before mid-century23 let alone the EUrsquos equitable fair-share

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Paris Agreement marked a significant shift in global ambition on climate change and committed EU Member States and other UNFCCC parties to keeping average global temperature rise lsquowell belowrsquo 2degC and to pursuing efforts to limit it to 15degC

A few options exist that can be used to create the impetus for a revised higher level of EU ambition in 2030 The EU justifies its insufficient NDC by quoting various IPCC assessment reports Following this logic the EU should now begin using the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC as the basis for all of its actions Moreover while the Paris Agreement has been agreed the rules governing it are yet to be agreed so ensuring a strong and successful completion of these rules may help to reignite the debate on increased EU ambition In October 2018 the EUrsquos position for COP24 states that the EU will ldquocommunicate or update its NDC by 2020 taking into account the collective further efforts needed and actions undertaken by all Parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreementrdquo24 In this same position the EU highlighted the importance of the Global Stocktake in 2023 for enhancing climate action by acknowledging the Paris Agreementrsquos wider ambition cycle To round out this list of options the European Parliament recently voted to show support for an EU emissions reduction target of 55 by 203025

Typically for any ambition increase to occur all EU Heads of State and Government need to politically guide a target increase The next appropriate moment to discuss an increase is when they examine a new long-term climate and energy target and strategy for the EU which will most likely take place May 2019 This meeting would be an opportune moment for EU Member States to examine their own long-term targets thereby contributing information that would allow the bloc as a whole to explore what prospects there are for an even more ambitious NDC target in line with a new EU long-term target However no clear signal from all EU Member States has been sent that they would support such a revision of the EU NDC target Moreover the legislative right to initiate a revision lies with the European Commission a change in its cabinet is foreseen after the European Parliament elections (052019) the implications of which will only be known after it happens

Another track that can be used to pursue higher ambition is at the EU Member States level All EU Member States must develop and submit final national climate and energy plans (NECPS) by the end of 2019 outlining how a Member State will achieve their share of the EU 2030 targets With these plans Member States also have the opportunity to highlight measures that allow their domestic emissions reductions to go beyond the minimal action required to fulfil their share of the EU targets eg coal-phase out ahead of 2030 permanent cancellation of ETS allowances or higher rates of deployment of sustainable technologies ie renewable energy energy efficiency

Indeed a few EU Member States have called for increased EU ambition26 while other EU Member States have called for the EU to focus on implementing existing EU policies before looking to

22 European Commission (2018) Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Cantildeete at the High Level Stakeholder Conference The EUs Vision of a modern clean and competitive economy Available at httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_SPEECH-18-4447_enhtm 23 Climate Action Tracker (2018) EU Available at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieseu 24 Consilium (2018) Climate change Council adopts conclusions for COP24 Council of the EU Available here httpswwwconsiliumeuropaeuenpresspress-releases20181009climate-change-council-adopts-conclusions

25 European Parliament (2018) COP24 Resolution Available at httpwwweuroparleuropaeunewsenpress-room20181018IPR16550paris-agreement-meps-call-for-stepping-up-eu-climate-commitments 26 Bureau Woordvoering Kabinetsformatie (2018) Coalition agreement Trust in the future [Kingdom of the Netherlands Cabinet Coalition government] Available at httpswwwkabinetsformatie2017nldocumentenpublicaties20171010regeerakkoord-vertrouwen-in-de-toekomst_sp=97c0f122-98ad-4998-91f4-dc49cdd03a6c1507635788124

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In this report WWF analyses the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of more than 10 very diverse countries in all regions of the world

For each of those countries we provide a brief description of the NDC and information on progress on implementation and on the political context in country regarding ambition increase We also look at the potential for increased ambition in each country Based on this and on the political and social context for the country we present specific recommendations to achieve ambition in each NDC such as

Increasing support for renewable energies and energy efficiency to underpin ambitious renewables and efficiency targets (eg Chile China EU Mexico)

Strengthening measures and policies in agriculture forestry and land use (AFOLU) (Brazil Madagascar Chile)

Phasing out fossil fuels subsidies and exploitation (Brazil Chile Norway)

Improving carbon pricing mechanisms (Chile Mexico Norway New Zealand South Africa)

Early peaking and South-south cooperation (China)

Phasing out coal use (Chile China EU South Africa)

Contributing a fair share of global emissions reductions by moving to net zero emissions by 2040 (EU)

Just transition (EU South Africa NZ)

Efficiency in the transport sector (NZ UK) Electromobility (Chile)

Adaptation plans and policies (Brazil Madagascar)

Aligning private and public financial flows with climate objectives (EU Mexico)

Technology development for decarbonising the industry sector (Norway UK)

Set the conditions for financing the investments needed to reach 15degC (Brazil China EU Mexico)

Recommendations for governments on enabling conditions to maximise the contribution of Non-State Actors are also presented as we believe they should play a key role in enhancing climate action and ambition

The aim is to showcase that more ambition is not only necessary and urgent but also possible We want to highlight untapped potential as well as tools to leverage greater climate ambition on the national level To meet the Paris goals countries need to make a collective effort that starts at home WWF offers recommendations to achieve this based on the work and views of its National Offices across the world

In this paper we are setting out the context of the identified emissions reductions gap that still remains The Ambition Mechanism introduced in the Paris Agreement is also addressed Finally case studies from selected countries set out how governments should address the need for greater ambition from a WWF perspective We hope our contribution is useful and can inspire countries to announce enhanced NDCs by 2020

3

Contents

IPCC and the gap to meeting Paris Agreement goals 4 The Paris Agreement and its Ambition Mechanism 6

Action on the national level ndash Case Studies on improving NDCs 7

Brazil Case Study 8

Chile Case Study 11

China Case Study 14

European Union Case Study 17

Madagascar Case Study 21

Mexico case study 24

New Zealand Case Study 27

Norway Case Study 31

South Africa Case Study 35

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Case Study 38

Vietnam Case Study 41

Non-state actor responses 44

Conclusions 46

COPYRIGHT copyWWF Climate amp Energy Practice 2017 All Rights Reserved

AUTHORS

Mark Lutes and Fernanda Carvalho (WWF International) Kristin Reissig (WWF Germany) Inga Fritzen Buan (WWF Norway) Stephen Cornelius and Garreth Redmond (WWF UK)Andreacute Nahur Eduardo Canina and Renata Camargo (WWF Brazil) Mariana Panuncio (WWF US)Ryan Finnegan (WWF US) Alan Strait (WWF US) Tabareacute Arroyo-Curra (WWF Sweden)Paula Tassara Soliacutes (WWF Chile) Leia Achampong (WWF EPO)Harisoa Hasina Rakotondrazafy (WWF Madagascar) Ninel Escobar Montecinos (WWF Mexico)David Tong (WWF New Zealand) Prabhat Upadhyaya (WWF South Africa)Louise Naudeacute (WWF South Africa) Vietnam Vu Quoc Anh (WWW Vietnan) Zhang Nan (WWF China)Wang Weikang (WWF China) Ding Ying (WWF China)

CONTRIBUTORS

With support by WWF UK and WWF Germany

WWF Climate amp Energy Practice

EDITORAnn Gardiner

4

IPCC AND THE GAP TO MEETING PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS In 2018 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a special report on the impacts of global warming of 15degC and related global greenhouse gas emissions pathways This report was prepared in response to an invitation contained in the Decision to adopt the Paris Agreement

The report concludes that global warming is likely to reach 15 between 2030 and 2052 if warming continues to increase at the current rate To halt anthropogenic global warming in the next few decades would require reaching and sustaining net-zero global CO2 emissions and declining net non-CO2 radiative forcing On longer timescales net negative CO2 emissions andor further reductions in non-CO2 radiative forcing may still be required to prevent further warming

If the commitments given in the current NDCs submitted under the Paris Agreement are met emissions in 2030 are estimated to be 52-58 GtCO2yr-1 This level of emissions would not limit global warming to 15 even if there were very challenging increases in the scale and ambition of emission reductions after 2030 If the temperature rise is to be limited to 15degC with no or limited overshoot emissions must be below 35 GtCO2yr-1 by 20301 The lower the emissions in 2030 the lower the challenge in limiting global warming to 15degC after 2030 with no or limited overshoot

Limiting global warming to 15degC requires rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy land urban environment and infrastructure such as transport and buildings and industrial systems The rate of system change required has occurred in the past but only within specific sectors technologies or geographies and not at the scale that will now be needed to meet Paris goals Specific changes in pathways limiting global warming to 15degC include

Lower energy use through enhanced energy efficiency and fast electrification of energy end use

Renewables providing 70-85 of electricity in 2050

Increasing nuclear and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage

CO2 emissions from industry decreasing by 75-90 in 2050 relative to 2010

Share of low emission final energy in the transport sector rising from less than 5 in 2030 to about 35-65 in 2050

Large transitions in global and regional land use - their scale depending on the mitigation portfolio

Annual average energy-related mitigation investment for the period 2015-2050 around US$ 900 billion

In addition to reducing emissions all pathways with limited or no overshoot of 15degC project the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) Significant near-term emissions reductions and measures to lower energy and land demand can limit CDR deployment

There are multiple synergies and trade-offs between mitigation options deployed in 15degC consistent pathways and the sustainable development goals Pathways that include low energy demand low material consumption and low greenhouse gas intensive food consumption have the

1 All but one of the pathways limiting global warming to 15 have emissions below this level by 2030

5

most pronounced synergies and the lowest number of trade-offs with respect to sustainable development

Even with 15degC global warming there will be increased climate-related risks to health livelihoods food security water supply human security and economic growth If the temperature increases to 2degC the risks are still higher The figure below illustrates some of the impacts and risks for people economies and ecosystems at different degrees of warming Already at 15degC there are high risks associated with unique and threatened systems (ecological and human ecosystems with restricted geographic range eg coral reefs and the Arctic and its indigenous peoples) and extreme weather events At 2degC there are high to very high risks across all the Reasons for Concern

Source IPCC Special report on Global Warming of 15 degrees Celsius Summary for Policy Makers

A wide range of adaptation options are available to reduce the risks to ecosystems but at 2degC adaptation is expected to be more challenging for ecosystems food and health systems than for 15degC Even at 15degC vulnerable regions such as small islands are projected to face multiple and interrelated climate risks

6

The message to be taken from the IPCC report is thus that to limit the worst impacts of climate change on ecosystems and humans significantly more ambitious action is needed from all levels of government the private sector and civil society

THE PARIS AGREEMENT AND ITS AMBITION MECHANISM The Paris Agreementrsquos central goal is to limit global temperature rise to well below 2degC above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit still further to 15degC

The agreement also aims to strengthen the ability of countries to deal with the impacts of climate change NDCs represent the contribution of each Party towards meeting the goals of the Agreement Developed country Parties are asked to take the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets Developing country Parties are encouraged over time to move towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets

The Paris Agreement was adopted by Decision 1CP21 This Decision emphasises the urgent need to address the gap between the emissions which would result from the aggregate pledges of the Parties and the emissions needed to hold the temperature to well below 2degC In recognising this gap it also emphasises the urgency of implementing the Kyoto Protocol to enhance pre-2020 ambition Measures set out in the Decision to enhance action pre-2020 include strengthening the technical examination process enhancement of the provision of urgent finance technology and support and measures to strengthen high-level engagement

The Paris Agreement established a five-year cycle for communication of the NDCs with increasing ambition in each subsequent NDC Submitted NDCs have different timeframes for their commitments some have 2025 timeframes others 2030 Decision 1CP21 encourages countries with a 2025 timescale to submit new NDCs by 2020 while those with 2030 timeframes are called upon to update their NDC by 2020 The Talanoa Dialogue which is the renamed facilitative dialogue from the Decision was launched in January 2018 to drive higher ambition in the NDCs submitted in 2020

For every five year cycle NDCs must be submitted at least 9 to 12 months in advance of the relevant Conference of Parties (COP) This is to allow time for the UNFCCC secretariat to synthesise the NDCs in a report As part of the five-year cycle there will also be a global stocktake on collective progress towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement - the first being in 2023 The outcomes from the stocktake will inform Parties in updating and enhancing their actions and support and enhance international cooperation The design of the global stocktake and the sources of information to be used are still being negotiated

In addition to the sufficiently ambitious NDCs all Parties should strive to formulate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies These should take into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in the light of different national circumstances They are invited to communicate these strategies to the UNFCCC secretariat by 2020 To date only a few countries have communicated these strategies

7

ACTION ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL ndash CASE STUDIES ON IMPROVING NDCS As WWF is present in about 100 different countries and works closely with national governments on developing national climate policies and strategies and implementing NDCs we have assembled this series of ten case studies to contribute to discussions and inspire further climate action and ambition at COP 24 and beyond

The case studies presented in this section describe the current commitments in NDCs2 in a selection of countries discuss the developments in those countries with regard to climate change action and include recommendations to increase ambition in those NDCs

2 Submitted NDCs can be viewed at httpswww4unfcccintsitesNDCStagingPagesAllaspx

8

BRAZIL CASE STUDY Description of NDC The Brazilian NDC set the goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37 below 2005 levels in 2025 As a subsequent indicative contribution Brazil intends to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43 below 2005 levels in 2030 Brazilrsquos NDC is economy wide and consistent with the long-term vision of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2degC above pre-industrial levels

In addition Brazilrsquos commitments included specific targets to increase the share of sustainable biofuels in the Brazilian energy mix to approximately 18 by 2030 by expand biofuel consumption increase ethanol supply strengthen policies and measures with a view to achieving zero illegal deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon by 2030 restore and reforest 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 restore an additional 15 million hectares of degraded pasturelands by 2030 and enhance 5 million hectares of integrated cropland-livestock-forestry systems by 2030 achieve 45 of renewables in the energy mix by 2030 including expanding the use of renewable energy sources other than hydropower in the total energy mix to between 28 and 33 by 2030 among other commitments

Regarding adaptation the Brazilian NDC commits to implementing policies and measures to adapt to climate change and contribute to building resilience of populations ecosystems infrastructure and production systems by reducing vulnerability and through the provision of ecosystem services The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) is one of the policies to be implemented

Photo copy Paulo de Abreu Shutterstockcom

9

Progress in implementation Over the last three years Brazilian society has made some advances in raising awareness about the strategy for implementation of the Brazilian NDC Several studies workshops and sectoral contributions were presented to guide government decisions on the Brazilian commitments to the Paris Agreement Among the studies we highlight a document from Brazilian Forum of Climate Change (FBMC acronym in Portuguese wwwfbmccombr ) ldquoShort-term Measures for Implementation of the Brazilian NDCrdquo3

In August 2018 the document was delivered to the President Michel Temer by the FBMC The president signed an act requesting the Forum to elaborate a position on the possibilities of reaching this long-term goal by 2060 This is the first time that Brazil has signaled this goal and the first step in Brazilrsquos positioning in relation to a long-term strategy for net-zero emissions

Other important documents are also ldquoIES-Brasil - Economic and Social Implications GHG Mitigation Scenarios 2030rdquo4 a scenario study that shows the economic and social benefits of NDC compliance and the additional benefits of increased ambition of mitigation targets (this study was supported by WWF-Brazil) and ldquoOptions for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation in Key Sectors of Brazilrdquo5 a study that estimates the potential and costs of GHG emission abatement through an integrated economic-energy analysis for the period between 2012 and 2050 in the different key sectors

Potential for increased ambition Systematically and annually reduce anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases for

the whole of Brazilrsquos economy by a maximum of 1 GtCO2e in 2030

Strengthen policies and measures to achieve the zero conversion of natural habitat of all biomes by 2030 and the reduction of deforestation rates of all biomes by 50 by 2020 and by 80 by 2025 in relation to the base year 2015

Restore and reforest 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 prioritizing the restoration of liabilities in permanent preservation areas (APPs)

Extend the scale of forest management systems in the Amazon to reach 20 million hectares by 2030 through georeferencing systems for forest production and traceability of their products with a view to discouraging illegal and unsustainable practices

3 httpsdrivegooglecomfiled1Z3f2vVILNx12ciZzTNGOE72qbQC4hcrdview

4httpwwwcentroclimacoppeufrjbrimagesNoticiasdocumentosies-brasil-20301_sumario-executivo-portuguespdf

5httpswwwmcticgovbrmcticopencmscienciaSEPEDclimaopcoes_mitigacaoOpcoes_de_Mitigacao_de_Emissoes_de_Gases_de_Efeito_Estufa_GEE_em_SetoresChave_do_Brasilhtml

10

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Brazil had Presidential elections in October 2018 It is unclear whether the new government that will take office on January 1st 2019 will maintain the same level of commitment to the NDC implementation as the previous government

Recommendations Brazil has the potential to increase ambition in the NDC Recommendations to achieve this include

Create a plan to discourage investments in new fossil fuel power plants Increase investment for non-hydro renewable sources aiming at the resilience and safety of the national electricity mix

Create instruments for the improvement of financing lines for microgeneration

Develop an efficient industrial policy to promote the competitiveness of non-hydro renewables

Expand biofuel and food production in degraded pasture areas

Accelerate implementation of the Forest Code ensuring public transparency and social control

Increase recovery of degraded pastures

Strengthen technical assistance to implement sustainable practices and improvement of productivity in livestock

11

CHILE CASE STUDY Description of NDC Chile has pledged unconditional conditional (on international financial support in the form of grants) and specific land-use and land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) targets Unconditionally Chile committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of GDP to 30 below 2007 levels by 2030 This target covers the energy industrial processes and waste sectors Climate Action Tracker (2018) estimates that this will lead to GHG emissions levels of 154 above 1990 and 42 above 2010 excluding LULUCF based on current GDP projections managed by the government6 The conditional target is a 35ndash45 reduction of GHG emission intensity of GDP below 2007 levels by 2030 which according to Climate Action Tracker is equivalent to 100ndash136 above 1990 levels and 12ndash24 above 2010 GHG emissions levels excluding LULUCF Regarding LULUCF Chile pledged to sustainably manage and recover 100000 hectares (ha) of forest by 2030 and to reforest 100000 ha subject to approval of new laws Chile is one of the few countries to separate the LULUCF sector target from other emissions which increases the transparency of its proposed actions On adaptation Chile pledged to develop sectoral adaptation plans to establish specific measures and mechanisms to measure progress

Progress in implementation Since COP21 the Chilean Government has made significant progress in elaborating national plans for mitigation in the energy sector and for adaptation following a sector-specific approach including forestry and agriculture infrastructure biodiversity fisheries health and cities Moreover under the Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) initiative supported by the World 6 httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieschile

12

Bank Chile has been analysing carbon pricing options since 2015 Although the current carbon tax remains ineffective in terms of mitigation outcomes (US$5tCO2) institutional capacity was built for monitoring and reporting for the largest CO2 emissions sources at the national level In 2017 Chile issued a National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) which includes the first national-level Emissions Reduction Programme that targets reductions in the rates of land and forest degradation and also increasing forest carbon capture through reforestation It is expected that over a period of 9 years improvements in AFOLU-related policies and in management programs would contribute significantly towards Chileacutes NDC while accessing results-based-payments in the carbon market7 However a mega fire outbreak in early 2017 affecting 600000 ha of forest plantations grasslands and native forests demonstrated the vulnerability of land - both encompassed by this Programme and beyond it - to climate change

The frequency and extent of fires in the Centre and South of Chile is the greatest factor of uncertainty and could be determinant in shaping Chileacutes future GHG emissions trajectory Before 2017 the AFOLU sector was a net absorber of emissions mostly associated to the expansion of forest plantations and played a significant role in reducing the overall net balance of emissions However excluding AFOLU since 1990 net national emissions steadily rose due to increasing rate of burning of fossil fuels (IPCC energy sector) This overall trend continues today

Potential for increased ambition In the run-up to a revised NDC in 2020 the greatest potential for increased ambition lies in GHG mitigation in the energy generation sector Chiles geography political stability robust economy and energy market conditions create an exceptional environment to accelerate the transition to a low emissions economy Nevertheless this will require phase-out of coal capacity before it reaches end-of-life Coal reached 53 of installed capacity in May 20188 versus 18 of current renewable capacity In early 2018 Chile announced that it will not build any new coal-fired power plants (without CCS) and will develop a plan to phase out coal as coal-fired power permitting has stalled in recent years due to the comparatively low costs of renewable energy Current solar PV and onshore wind costs in Chile are as low as US$ 003kWh to US$ 004kWh9 However under business as usual (BAU) conditions the fact that a significant portion of coal plants have been built in recent years means that projections are for a 19 share for coal in electricity generation in 2050 This share would need to be close to zero to make Chileacutes energy sector compatible to 15degC10 Chiles Ministry of Energy is leading a roundtable to analyse the best options for the decommissioning or reconversion of coal-plant capacity but there is still the need for strong political will corporate leadership and citizen engagement to ensure that Chile can include coal-phase out as a key measure for increased NDC ambition in 2020

The National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) launched in 2017 provides a solid foundation to scale-up and integrate other land-based and nature-based mitigation and adaptation solutions particularly through forest landscape restoration This is an opportunity to reduce the severity of extensive fires Work through this strategy to increase landscape resilience will help ensure baseline conditions are maintained and take advantage of the opportunity to capture mitigation and reduced land vulnerability (adaptation) In this context a national forest restoration plan with the goal of restoring up to 1M ha coupled with watershed management measures and scaled-up plans for biodiversity protection (such as those proposed under the National Adaptation Plan for Biodiversity) would show clear signs of Chilersquos commitment Mitigation in LULUCF is still a low hanging fruit for increased NDC mitigation ambition that addresses further social and environmental needs for adaptation and sustainable development while opening the opportunity to integrate ecosystem protection for future generations

7 httpwwwconafclcmseditorwebENCCRVNota-Informativa-24pdf 8 httpgeneradorascldocumentosboletinesboletin-mercado-electrico-sector-generacion-junio-2018

9 httpswwwirenaorgpublications2018JanRenewable-power-generation-costs-in-2017

10 Climate Tracker 2018

13

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Chilersquos 2050 Energy Policy (PE2050) aims for renewable targets of at least 60 by 2035 and 70 by 2050 for electricity generation Recently the Energy Route 2018-2022 the Mitigation Plan for the Energy Sector and the Electromobility Strategy stand out as complementary policies that together should foster increased energy efficiency scaling-up small distributed energy and introducing 100 electric public transport and 40 electric private vehicle fleet by 2050 These developments represent strong signals for change however there is still the need to determine how the government will deploy measures improve enabling conditions for the private sector and ensure a participatory approach with citizens particularly in the cases where local impact is expected Furthermore there is an urgent need to accelerate adaptation response across the territory While adaptation sectoral plans are being developed at the national level it is crucial to move forward in implementation plans with strong local and regional participation

Recommendations For Chile to increase its NDC ambition it should

Include the mitigation resulting from a national agreement and plan to phase out coal-fired generation in the NDC in 2020 The government companies and local community representatives should continue working on transparent criteria to determine the timelines support and measures involved in the decommissioning of each unit

By 2020 improve the design and expand the scope of the current carbon tax to include other highly emitting sectors Establishing a gradually rising carbon price will provide more certainty to investors that play a key role in scaling up the implementation of climate-compatible projects

For successful coal phase-out the NDC should include a commitment to work with the private sector and civil society to ensure enabling policy conditions for renewable energy capacity to replace coal-fired capacity by building a reliable efficient inclusive sustainable and secure system

The NDC can also include at least a portion of mitigation results expected by 2030 through the implementation of the Electromobility Plan launched in 2018 Including electromobility in Chileacutes NDC will reflect institutional commitment on this matter which in turn will better position this emerging market in the map of investors

Introduce a significantly stronger target for forest landscape restoration (up to 1M ha) that accelerates national action and accesses international support to reduce the exposure to water scarcity and conditions leading to fires which peak LULUCF emissions (as in 2016-17) Moreover a commitment to develop land-based (including nature-based) adaptation measures is increasingly critical to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience across the country

Support increased NDC ambition in 2020 by pooling mitigation potentials by 2030 from coal phase out the expansion of renewable energy utility and distributed capacity and progress in electromobility While fires are becoming a great factor of uncertainty it is still possible and necessary to increase LULUCFAFOLU mitigation ambition Chile is already piloting results-based-payments and further reforestation and reducing land and forest degradation are critical to reduce vulnerability strengthen resilience and adaptation while also protecting essential ecosystem services biodiversity and to incentivise decentralised sustainable development

14

CHINA CASE STUDY Description of NDC China submitted its NDC to the UNFCCC in June 2015 It covers targets policies and implementation measures for both mitigation and adaptation

The key targets of the NDC to be achieved around or by 2030 are summarized as follows a) to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and make best efforts to peak earlier than that b) to lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65 from the 2005 level c) to increase the share of non-fossil fuels11 in primary energy consumption to around 20 and d) to increase the forest stock volume by around 45 billion cubic meters compared to 2005

To achieve this a series of policies and measures were proposed including for energy system industry buildings transportation and carbon sinks

As for adaptation China proposed to ldquoproactively adapt to climate change by enhancing mechanisms and capacities to effectively defend against climate change risks in key areasrdquo and to ldquoprogressively strengthen early warning and emergency response systems and disaster prevention and reduction mechanismsrdquo covering various sectors including agriculture forestry and water resources as well as in cities coastal and ecologically vulnerable areas

Progress in implementation Chinarsquos 2020 target to reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45 was reached already in 2017 and the target for forest stock volume was also over-fulfilled With Chinarsquos renewable energy industry boom the proportion of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption increased to 138 by

11 Non-fossil fuels here mean renewables and nuclear energy

Photo copy

ArtisticP

hoto Shutterstockcom

z

15

2017 These achievements also give China a solid foundation to reach its 2030 targets before that date

Coal consumption control and the transition from coal to non-fossil fuels might be the most important drivers for Chinarsquos progress While coal remains the dominant fuel in China the percentage of coal in total energy consumption decreased from 724 in 2005 to 604 in 2017 In contrast Chinarsquos renewable energy sector is booming According to REN21 China ranks as the worldrsquos leader in total renewables capacity and also in solar PV wind and geothermal heating capacity and investment in renewables capacity12 By the end of 2017 Chinarsquos total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 650GW with massive growth in wind and solar power especially It is estimated that Chinarsquos proportion of non-fossil energy sources will reach and surpass 15 by 2020

The policies issued and the actions implemented by Chinese government and other stakeholders will ensure a full fulfillment of the commitment that Chinese government has pledged to the international society Most prominently Chinarsquos international pledges and national targets are backed up by national strategies policies and detailed implementation measures with transparency and accountability mechanism

Potential for increased ambition According to a survey done by the China Carbon Forum 87 of respondents expect China to achieve the carbon emissions peak by 2030 the latest and 48 even expect it by 2025 or earlier13 Most of the research revealed that China could peak earlier than or well before 2030 and one study shows that Chinarsquos carbon emissions are likely to peak between 2020 and 202214 Given its economic restructuring potential China could achieve an emissions peak around 2023 with efforts in energy efficiency lowering the CO2 intensity in Chinarsquos GDP by just over 71 by 2030 compared to 2005 thus exceeding the NDC target of 60-6515

The transition trend from coal to renewables and other low carbon energy sources might be a great driver for China to overachieve its 2030 targets A new study released by the China National Renewable Energy Centre reveals that it is possible and beneficial for Chinarsquos fossil fuel use to peak in 2020 and decline steadily towards 203516 According to a 2015 WWF report around 84 of Chinarsquos electricity generation can be met with renewable sources by mid-century and the number is expected to be 49 in 203017

Given the above progress and scenario analyses we believe China has the potential to improve its NDC in terms of the peaking timeline share of non-fossil fuel in the primary energy consumption and carbon intensity targets showing more leadership as a torchbearer in global climate governance There is also reason to expect China to soon propose a long-term strategy for 2050 under the 15degC and 2degC scenarios

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Chinese government has shown strong political will on environmental protection in recent years through emphasizing the concept of ldquoecological civilizationrdquo Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China the environment has risen to an unprecedented status

12 REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report

13 China Carbon Forum 2018 ldquo2018 China Carbon Pricing Surveyrdquo

14 Chinadialogue 5 June 2018 ldquoRoundtable Is China still on track to reach its Paris targetsrdquo httpswwwchinadialoguenetarticleshowsingleen10653-Roundtable-Is-China-still-on-track-to-reach-its-Paris-targets- 15 Qilin Liu Qi Lei Huiming Xu etal ldquoChinarsquos energy revolution strategy into 2030rdquo in Resources Conservation and Recycling 2018 128 78-89

16 China National Renewable Energy Center 2018 ldquoChina Renewable Energy Outlook 2018rdquo

17 WWF 2015 ldquoChinarsquos Future Generation 20rdquo httpsd2ouvy59p0dg6kcloudfrontnetdownloadschina_s_future_generation_2_0_reportpdf

16

in the national development agenda The main driving force for environmental protection is the need for sustainable development including the need to fight air pollution

While US President Donald Trump has announced that the US will be pulling out of the Paris Agreement the China government has several times reaffirmed its commitment to the Agreement and the countryrsquos targets However it should also be noted that international trade tension between China and the US and the domestic challenges of slower economic growth arising from that have resulted in some conservative arguments against ambitious climate action in China18

Recommendations For China to reach its sustainable development ambition and goal of becoming an ldquoecological civilizationrdquo by mid-century and when considering the need for urgent and ambitious climate actions to avoid global warming over 15degC it should take the following actions

Revise its climate targets and commitments under the Paris Agreement by 2020 by

Bringing the timeline for emissions peaking to around 2022

Proposing a carbon emission reduction pathway for the period after the peaking to be in line with the Paris Agreementrsquos 15-2degC target

Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy to achieve a higher share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030

Accelerate its energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by

Strengthening coal consumption control halting new coal power and eliminating inefficient capacity

Reducing dispersed coal burning through efficiency improvement reduction and clean energy replacement

Accelerating power sector reform to create an environment for promoting large-scale and distributed deployment of renewable energy

Enhance international cooperation to take more leadership in addressing global climate change by

Supporting other developing countries to improve their capacity to achieving their climate targets through south-south cooperation on climate change

Shifting Chinarsquos oversea energy investments from coal to renewables to accelerate the pace and scale of the worldrsquos transition to a sustainable model of energy and development

18 Li Shuo 28 October 2018 ldquoDoes China Still Want to Be a Global Environmental Leaderrdquo httpsthediplomatcom201810does-china-still-want-to-be-a-global-environmental-leader

17

EUROPEAN UNION CASE STUDY Description of NDC The EU NDC purely focuses on mitigation outlining the agreed EU domestic emissions reduction target the implementation process and a narrative on why the EU believes its NDC is fair and ambitious This submission covers the collective contribution of the EU and the 28 Member States

The commitment is for the EU and the Member States to achieve an unconditional economy-wide ldquobinding target of an at least 40 domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990rdquo on 100 of emissions to be achieved domestically without the use of international credits19 The commitment period for the target is from January 1st 2021 (the EUrsquos second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol ends on December 31st 2020) to December 31st 2030 Additional legislation was created to facilitate the achievement of this goal including on LULUCF energy and transport The NDC holds no concrete information on any non-mitigation elements eg adaptation climate finance loss amp damage Complementing its NDC is the European Commission Communication lsquoThe Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 202020 which briefly discusses basic elements on several issues including climate finance adaptation and mitigation cycles

Progress in implementation The EUrsquos 2030 climate and energy framework21 -politically agreed in October 2014- forms the basis of its NDC The various pieces of legislation that pursue the attainment of the NDC target were agreed between 2016 and 2018 by EU Member States and European Parliament Of note based on the EUrsquos own calculations new legislative targets on renewable energy uptake and 19 European Commission (2015) Environment Council approves the EUs intended nationally determined contribution to the new global climate agreement Available at httpseceuropaeuclimanewsarticlesnews_2015030601_en 20 European Commission 2015 The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 httpeceuropaeutransparencyregdocrep12015EN1-2015-81-EN-F1-1PDF

21 European Commission 2014 European Council Conclusions httpwwwconsiliumeuropaeuuedocscms_datadocspressdataenec145397pdf

Photo copy

Hung C

hung Chih Shutterstockcom

z

18

energy efficiency measures mean that the EUrsquos emissions (if all Member States achieve these targets) will be reduced by 4522 by 2030 However this higher target is by no means in line with achieving 15degC or with becoming a net-zero economy well-before mid-century23 let alone the EUrsquos equitable fair-share

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Paris Agreement marked a significant shift in global ambition on climate change and committed EU Member States and other UNFCCC parties to keeping average global temperature rise lsquowell belowrsquo 2degC and to pursuing efforts to limit it to 15degC

A few options exist that can be used to create the impetus for a revised higher level of EU ambition in 2030 The EU justifies its insufficient NDC by quoting various IPCC assessment reports Following this logic the EU should now begin using the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC as the basis for all of its actions Moreover while the Paris Agreement has been agreed the rules governing it are yet to be agreed so ensuring a strong and successful completion of these rules may help to reignite the debate on increased EU ambition In October 2018 the EUrsquos position for COP24 states that the EU will ldquocommunicate or update its NDC by 2020 taking into account the collective further efforts needed and actions undertaken by all Parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreementrdquo24 In this same position the EU highlighted the importance of the Global Stocktake in 2023 for enhancing climate action by acknowledging the Paris Agreementrsquos wider ambition cycle To round out this list of options the European Parliament recently voted to show support for an EU emissions reduction target of 55 by 203025

Typically for any ambition increase to occur all EU Heads of State and Government need to politically guide a target increase The next appropriate moment to discuss an increase is when they examine a new long-term climate and energy target and strategy for the EU which will most likely take place May 2019 This meeting would be an opportune moment for EU Member States to examine their own long-term targets thereby contributing information that would allow the bloc as a whole to explore what prospects there are for an even more ambitious NDC target in line with a new EU long-term target However no clear signal from all EU Member States has been sent that they would support such a revision of the EU NDC target Moreover the legislative right to initiate a revision lies with the European Commission a change in its cabinet is foreseen after the European Parliament elections (052019) the implications of which will only be known after it happens

Another track that can be used to pursue higher ambition is at the EU Member States level All EU Member States must develop and submit final national climate and energy plans (NECPS) by the end of 2019 outlining how a Member State will achieve their share of the EU 2030 targets With these plans Member States also have the opportunity to highlight measures that allow their domestic emissions reductions to go beyond the minimal action required to fulfil their share of the EU targets eg coal-phase out ahead of 2030 permanent cancellation of ETS allowances or higher rates of deployment of sustainable technologies ie renewable energy energy efficiency

Indeed a few EU Member States have called for increased EU ambition26 while other EU Member States have called for the EU to focus on implementing existing EU policies before looking to

22 European Commission (2018) Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Cantildeete at the High Level Stakeholder Conference The EUs Vision of a modern clean and competitive economy Available at httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_SPEECH-18-4447_enhtm 23 Climate Action Tracker (2018) EU Available at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieseu 24 Consilium (2018) Climate change Council adopts conclusions for COP24 Council of the EU Available here httpswwwconsiliumeuropaeuenpresspress-releases20181009climate-change-council-adopts-conclusions

25 European Parliament (2018) COP24 Resolution Available at httpwwweuroparleuropaeunewsenpress-room20181018IPR16550paris-agreement-meps-call-for-stepping-up-eu-climate-commitments 26 Bureau Woordvoering Kabinetsformatie (2018) Coalition agreement Trust in the future [Kingdom of the Netherlands Cabinet Coalition government] Available at httpswwwkabinetsformatie2017nldocumentenpublicaties20171010regeerakkoord-vertrouwen-in-de-toekomst_sp=97c0f122-98ad-4998-91f4-dc49cdd03a6c1507635788124

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

3

Contents

IPCC and the gap to meeting Paris Agreement goals 4 The Paris Agreement and its Ambition Mechanism 6

Action on the national level ndash Case Studies on improving NDCs 7

Brazil Case Study 8

Chile Case Study 11

China Case Study 14

European Union Case Study 17

Madagascar Case Study 21

Mexico case study 24

New Zealand Case Study 27

Norway Case Study 31

South Africa Case Study 35

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Case Study 38

Vietnam Case Study 41

Non-state actor responses 44

Conclusions 46

COPYRIGHT copyWWF Climate amp Energy Practice 2017 All Rights Reserved

AUTHORS

Mark Lutes and Fernanda Carvalho (WWF International) Kristin Reissig (WWF Germany) Inga Fritzen Buan (WWF Norway) Stephen Cornelius and Garreth Redmond (WWF UK)Andreacute Nahur Eduardo Canina and Renata Camargo (WWF Brazil) Mariana Panuncio (WWF US)Ryan Finnegan (WWF US) Alan Strait (WWF US) Tabareacute Arroyo-Curra (WWF Sweden)Paula Tassara Soliacutes (WWF Chile) Leia Achampong (WWF EPO)Harisoa Hasina Rakotondrazafy (WWF Madagascar) Ninel Escobar Montecinos (WWF Mexico)David Tong (WWF New Zealand) Prabhat Upadhyaya (WWF South Africa)Louise Naudeacute (WWF South Africa) Vietnam Vu Quoc Anh (WWW Vietnan) Zhang Nan (WWF China)Wang Weikang (WWF China) Ding Ying (WWF China)

CONTRIBUTORS

With support by WWF UK and WWF Germany

WWF Climate amp Energy Practice

EDITORAnn Gardiner

4

IPCC AND THE GAP TO MEETING PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS In 2018 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a special report on the impacts of global warming of 15degC and related global greenhouse gas emissions pathways This report was prepared in response to an invitation contained in the Decision to adopt the Paris Agreement

The report concludes that global warming is likely to reach 15 between 2030 and 2052 if warming continues to increase at the current rate To halt anthropogenic global warming in the next few decades would require reaching and sustaining net-zero global CO2 emissions and declining net non-CO2 radiative forcing On longer timescales net negative CO2 emissions andor further reductions in non-CO2 radiative forcing may still be required to prevent further warming

If the commitments given in the current NDCs submitted under the Paris Agreement are met emissions in 2030 are estimated to be 52-58 GtCO2yr-1 This level of emissions would not limit global warming to 15 even if there were very challenging increases in the scale and ambition of emission reductions after 2030 If the temperature rise is to be limited to 15degC with no or limited overshoot emissions must be below 35 GtCO2yr-1 by 20301 The lower the emissions in 2030 the lower the challenge in limiting global warming to 15degC after 2030 with no or limited overshoot

Limiting global warming to 15degC requires rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy land urban environment and infrastructure such as transport and buildings and industrial systems The rate of system change required has occurred in the past but only within specific sectors technologies or geographies and not at the scale that will now be needed to meet Paris goals Specific changes in pathways limiting global warming to 15degC include

Lower energy use through enhanced energy efficiency and fast electrification of energy end use

Renewables providing 70-85 of electricity in 2050

Increasing nuclear and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage

CO2 emissions from industry decreasing by 75-90 in 2050 relative to 2010

Share of low emission final energy in the transport sector rising from less than 5 in 2030 to about 35-65 in 2050

Large transitions in global and regional land use - their scale depending on the mitigation portfolio

Annual average energy-related mitigation investment for the period 2015-2050 around US$ 900 billion

In addition to reducing emissions all pathways with limited or no overshoot of 15degC project the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) Significant near-term emissions reductions and measures to lower energy and land demand can limit CDR deployment

There are multiple synergies and trade-offs between mitigation options deployed in 15degC consistent pathways and the sustainable development goals Pathways that include low energy demand low material consumption and low greenhouse gas intensive food consumption have the

1 All but one of the pathways limiting global warming to 15 have emissions below this level by 2030

5

most pronounced synergies and the lowest number of trade-offs with respect to sustainable development

Even with 15degC global warming there will be increased climate-related risks to health livelihoods food security water supply human security and economic growth If the temperature increases to 2degC the risks are still higher The figure below illustrates some of the impacts and risks for people economies and ecosystems at different degrees of warming Already at 15degC there are high risks associated with unique and threatened systems (ecological and human ecosystems with restricted geographic range eg coral reefs and the Arctic and its indigenous peoples) and extreme weather events At 2degC there are high to very high risks across all the Reasons for Concern

Source IPCC Special report on Global Warming of 15 degrees Celsius Summary for Policy Makers

A wide range of adaptation options are available to reduce the risks to ecosystems but at 2degC adaptation is expected to be more challenging for ecosystems food and health systems than for 15degC Even at 15degC vulnerable regions such as small islands are projected to face multiple and interrelated climate risks

6

The message to be taken from the IPCC report is thus that to limit the worst impacts of climate change on ecosystems and humans significantly more ambitious action is needed from all levels of government the private sector and civil society

THE PARIS AGREEMENT AND ITS AMBITION MECHANISM The Paris Agreementrsquos central goal is to limit global temperature rise to well below 2degC above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit still further to 15degC

The agreement also aims to strengthen the ability of countries to deal with the impacts of climate change NDCs represent the contribution of each Party towards meeting the goals of the Agreement Developed country Parties are asked to take the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets Developing country Parties are encouraged over time to move towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets

The Paris Agreement was adopted by Decision 1CP21 This Decision emphasises the urgent need to address the gap between the emissions which would result from the aggregate pledges of the Parties and the emissions needed to hold the temperature to well below 2degC In recognising this gap it also emphasises the urgency of implementing the Kyoto Protocol to enhance pre-2020 ambition Measures set out in the Decision to enhance action pre-2020 include strengthening the technical examination process enhancement of the provision of urgent finance technology and support and measures to strengthen high-level engagement

The Paris Agreement established a five-year cycle for communication of the NDCs with increasing ambition in each subsequent NDC Submitted NDCs have different timeframes for their commitments some have 2025 timeframes others 2030 Decision 1CP21 encourages countries with a 2025 timescale to submit new NDCs by 2020 while those with 2030 timeframes are called upon to update their NDC by 2020 The Talanoa Dialogue which is the renamed facilitative dialogue from the Decision was launched in January 2018 to drive higher ambition in the NDCs submitted in 2020

For every five year cycle NDCs must be submitted at least 9 to 12 months in advance of the relevant Conference of Parties (COP) This is to allow time for the UNFCCC secretariat to synthesise the NDCs in a report As part of the five-year cycle there will also be a global stocktake on collective progress towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement - the first being in 2023 The outcomes from the stocktake will inform Parties in updating and enhancing their actions and support and enhance international cooperation The design of the global stocktake and the sources of information to be used are still being negotiated

In addition to the sufficiently ambitious NDCs all Parties should strive to formulate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies These should take into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in the light of different national circumstances They are invited to communicate these strategies to the UNFCCC secretariat by 2020 To date only a few countries have communicated these strategies

7

ACTION ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL ndash CASE STUDIES ON IMPROVING NDCS As WWF is present in about 100 different countries and works closely with national governments on developing national climate policies and strategies and implementing NDCs we have assembled this series of ten case studies to contribute to discussions and inspire further climate action and ambition at COP 24 and beyond

The case studies presented in this section describe the current commitments in NDCs2 in a selection of countries discuss the developments in those countries with regard to climate change action and include recommendations to increase ambition in those NDCs

2 Submitted NDCs can be viewed at httpswww4unfcccintsitesNDCStagingPagesAllaspx

8

BRAZIL CASE STUDY Description of NDC The Brazilian NDC set the goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37 below 2005 levels in 2025 As a subsequent indicative contribution Brazil intends to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43 below 2005 levels in 2030 Brazilrsquos NDC is economy wide and consistent with the long-term vision of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2degC above pre-industrial levels

In addition Brazilrsquos commitments included specific targets to increase the share of sustainable biofuels in the Brazilian energy mix to approximately 18 by 2030 by expand biofuel consumption increase ethanol supply strengthen policies and measures with a view to achieving zero illegal deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon by 2030 restore and reforest 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 restore an additional 15 million hectares of degraded pasturelands by 2030 and enhance 5 million hectares of integrated cropland-livestock-forestry systems by 2030 achieve 45 of renewables in the energy mix by 2030 including expanding the use of renewable energy sources other than hydropower in the total energy mix to between 28 and 33 by 2030 among other commitments

Regarding adaptation the Brazilian NDC commits to implementing policies and measures to adapt to climate change and contribute to building resilience of populations ecosystems infrastructure and production systems by reducing vulnerability and through the provision of ecosystem services The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) is one of the policies to be implemented

Photo copy Paulo de Abreu Shutterstockcom

9

Progress in implementation Over the last three years Brazilian society has made some advances in raising awareness about the strategy for implementation of the Brazilian NDC Several studies workshops and sectoral contributions were presented to guide government decisions on the Brazilian commitments to the Paris Agreement Among the studies we highlight a document from Brazilian Forum of Climate Change (FBMC acronym in Portuguese wwwfbmccombr ) ldquoShort-term Measures for Implementation of the Brazilian NDCrdquo3

In August 2018 the document was delivered to the President Michel Temer by the FBMC The president signed an act requesting the Forum to elaborate a position on the possibilities of reaching this long-term goal by 2060 This is the first time that Brazil has signaled this goal and the first step in Brazilrsquos positioning in relation to a long-term strategy for net-zero emissions

Other important documents are also ldquoIES-Brasil - Economic and Social Implications GHG Mitigation Scenarios 2030rdquo4 a scenario study that shows the economic and social benefits of NDC compliance and the additional benefits of increased ambition of mitigation targets (this study was supported by WWF-Brazil) and ldquoOptions for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation in Key Sectors of Brazilrdquo5 a study that estimates the potential and costs of GHG emission abatement through an integrated economic-energy analysis for the period between 2012 and 2050 in the different key sectors

Potential for increased ambition Systematically and annually reduce anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases for

the whole of Brazilrsquos economy by a maximum of 1 GtCO2e in 2030

Strengthen policies and measures to achieve the zero conversion of natural habitat of all biomes by 2030 and the reduction of deforestation rates of all biomes by 50 by 2020 and by 80 by 2025 in relation to the base year 2015

Restore and reforest 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 prioritizing the restoration of liabilities in permanent preservation areas (APPs)

Extend the scale of forest management systems in the Amazon to reach 20 million hectares by 2030 through georeferencing systems for forest production and traceability of their products with a view to discouraging illegal and unsustainable practices

3 httpsdrivegooglecomfiled1Z3f2vVILNx12ciZzTNGOE72qbQC4hcrdview

4httpwwwcentroclimacoppeufrjbrimagesNoticiasdocumentosies-brasil-20301_sumario-executivo-portuguespdf

5httpswwwmcticgovbrmcticopencmscienciaSEPEDclimaopcoes_mitigacaoOpcoes_de_Mitigacao_de_Emissoes_de_Gases_de_Efeito_Estufa_GEE_em_SetoresChave_do_Brasilhtml

10

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Brazil had Presidential elections in October 2018 It is unclear whether the new government that will take office on January 1st 2019 will maintain the same level of commitment to the NDC implementation as the previous government

Recommendations Brazil has the potential to increase ambition in the NDC Recommendations to achieve this include

Create a plan to discourage investments in new fossil fuel power plants Increase investment for non-hydro renewable sources aiming at the resilience and safety of the national electricity mix

Create instruments for the improvement of financing lines for microgeneration

Develop an efficient industrial policy to promote the competitiveness of non-hydro renewables

Expand biofuel and food production in degraded pasture areas

Accelerate implementation of the Forest Code ensuring public transparency and social control

Increase recovery of degraded pastures

Strengthen technical assistance to implement sustainable practices and improvement of productivity in livestock

11

CHILE CASE STUDY Description of NDC Chile has pledged unconditional conditional (on international financial support in the form of grants) and specific land-use and land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) targets Unconditionally Chile committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of GDP to 30 below 2007 levels by 2030 This target covers the energy industrial processes and waste sectors Climate Action Tracker (2018) estimates that this will lead to GHG emissions levels of 154 above 1990 and 42 above 2010 excluding LULUCF based on current GDP projections managed by the government6 The conditional target is a 35ndash45 reduction of GHG emission intensity of GDP below 2007 levels by 2030 which according to Climate Action Tracker is equivalent to 100ndash136 above 1990 levels and 12ndash24 above 2010 GHG emissions levels excluding LULUCF Regarding LULUCF Chile pledged to sustainably manage and recover 100000 hectares (ha) of forest by 2030 and to reforest 100000 ha subject to approval of new laws Chile is one of the few countries to separate the LULUCF sector target from other emissions which increases the transparency of its proposed actions On adaptation Chile pledged to develop sectoral adaptation plans to establish specific measures and mechanisms to measure progress

Progress in implementation Since COP21 the Chilean Government has made significant progress in elaborating national plans for mitigation in the energy sector and for adaptation following a sector-specific approach including forestry and agriculture infrastructure biodiversity fisheries health and cities Moreover under the Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) initiative supported by the World 6 httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieschile

12

Bank Chile has been analysing carbon pricing options since 2015 Although the current carbon tax remains ineffective in terms of mitigation outcomes (US$5tCO2) institutional capacity was built for monitoring and reporting for the largest CO2 emissions sources at the national level In 2017 Chile issued a National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) which includes the first national-level Emissions Reduction Programme that targets reductions in the rates of land and forest degradation and also increasing forest carbon capture through reforestation It is expected that over a period of 9 years improvements in AFOLU-related policies and in management programs would contribute significantly towards Chileacutes NDC while accessing results-based-payments in the carbon market7 However a mega fire outbreak in early 2017 affecting 600000 ha of forest plantations grasslands and native forests demonstrated the vulnerability of land - both encompassed by this Programme and beyond it - to climate change

The frequency and extent of fires in the Centre and South of Chile is the greatest factor of uncertainty and could be determinant in shaping Chileacutes future GHG emissions trajectory Before 2017 the AFOLU sector was a net absorber of emissions mostly associated to the expansion of forest plantations and played a significant role in reducing the overall net balance of emissions However excluding AFOLU since 1990 net national emissions steadily rose due to increasing rate of burning of fossil fuels (IPCC energy sector) This overall trend continues today

Potential for increased ambition In the run-up to a revised NDC in 2020 the greatest potential for increased ambition lies in GHG mitigation in the energy generation sector Chiles geography political stability robust economy and energy market conditions create an exceptional environment to accelerate the transition to a low emissions economy Nevertheless this will require phase-out of coal capacity before it reaches end-of-life Coal reached 53 of installed capacity in May 20188 versus 18 of current renewable capacity In early 2018 Chile announced that it will not build any new coal-fired power plants (without CCS) and will develop a plan to phase out coal as coal-fired power permitting has stalled in recent years due to the comparatively low costs of renewable energy Current solar PV and onshore wind costs in Chile are as low as US$ 003kWh to US$ 004kWh9 However under business as usual (BAU) conditions the fact that a significant portion of coal plants have been built in recent years means that projections are for a 19 share for coal in electricity generation in 2050 This share would need to be close to zero to make Chileacutes energy sector compatible to 15degC10 Chiles Ministry of Energy is leading a roundtable to analyse the best options for the decommissioning or reconversion of coal-plant capacity but there is still the need for strong political will corporate leadership and citizen engagement to ensure that Chile can include coal-phase out as a key measure for increased NDC ambition in 2020

The National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) launched in 2017 provides a solid foundation to scale-up and integrate other land-based and nature-based mitigation and adaptation solutions particularly through forest landscape restoration This is an opportunity to reduce the severity of extensive fires Work through this strategy to increase landscape resilience will help ensure baseline conditions are maintained and take advantage of the opportunity to capture mitigation and reduced land vulnerability (adaptation) In this context a national forest restoration plan with the goal of restoring up to 1M ha coupled with watershed management measures and scaled-up plans for biodiversity protection (such as those proposed under the National Adaptation Plan for Biodiversity) would show clear signs of Chilersquos commitment Mitigation in LULUCF is still a low hanging fruit for increased NDC mitigation ambition that addresses further social and environmental needs for adaptation and sustainable development while opening the opportunity to integrate ecosystem protection for future generations

7 httpwwwconafclcmseditorwebENCCRVNota-Informativa-24pdf 8 httpgeneradorascldocumentosboletinesboletin-mercado-electrico-sector-generacion-junio-2018

9 httpswwwirenaorgpublications2018JanRenewable-power-generation-costs-in-2017

10 Climate Tracker 2018

13

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Chilersquos 2050 Energy Policy (PE2050) aims for renewable targets of at least 60 by 2035 and 70 by 2050 for electricity generation Recently the Energy Route 2018-2022 the Mitigation Plan for the Energy Sector and the Electromobility Strategy stand out as complementary policies that together should foster increased energy efficiency scaling-up small distributed energy and introducing 100 electric public transport and 40 electric private vehicle fleet by 2050 These developments represent strong signals for change however there is still the need to determine how the government will deploy measures improve enabling conditions for the private sector and ensure a participatory approach with citizens particularly in the cases where local impact is expected Furthermore there is an urgent need to accelerate adaptation response across the territory While adaptation sectoral plans are being developed at the national level it is crucial to move forward in implementation plans with strong local and regional participation

Recommendations For Chile to increase its NDC ambition it should

Include the mitigation resulting from a national agreement and plan to phase out coal-fired generation in the NDC in 2020 The government companies and local community representatives should continue working on transparent criteria to determine the timelines support and measures involved in the decommissioning of each unit

By 2020 improve the design and expand the scope of the current carbon tax to include other highly emitting sectors Establishing a gradually rising carbon price will provide more certainty to investors that play a key role in scaling up the implementation of climate-compatible projects

For successful coal phase-out the NDC should include a commitment to work with the private sector and civil society to ensure enabling policy conditions for renewable energy capacity to replace coal-fired capacity by building a reliable efficient inclusive sustainable and secure system

The NDC can also include at least a portion of mitigation results expected by 2030 through the implementation of the Electromobility Plan launched in 2018 Including electromobility in Chileacutes NDC will reflect institutional commitment on this matter which in turn will better position this emerging market in the map of investors

Introduce a significantly stronger target for forest landscape restoration (up to 1M ha) that accelerates national action and accesses international support to reduce the exposure to water scarcity and conditions leading to fires which peak LULUCF emissions (as in 2016-17) Moreover a commitment to develop land-based (including nature-based) adaptation measures is increasingly critical to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience across the country

Support increased NDC ambition in 2020 by pooling mitigation potentials by 2030 from coal phase out the expansion of renewable energy utility and distributed capacity and progress in electromobility While fires are becoming a great factor of uncertainty it is still possible and necessary to increase LULUCFAFOLU mitigation ambition Chile is already piloting results-based-payments and further reforestation and reducing land and forest degradation are critical to reduce vulnerability strengthen resilience and adaptation while also protecting essential ecosystem services biodiversity and to incentivise decentralised sustainable development

14

CHINA CASE STUDY Description of NDC China submitted its NDC to the UNFCCC in June 2015 It covers targets policies and implementation measures for both mitigation and adaptation

The key targets of the NDC to be achieved around or by 2030 are summarized as follows a) to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and make best efforts to peak earlier than that b) to lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65 from the 2005 level c) to increase the share of non-fossil fuels11 in primary energy consumption to around 20 and d) to increase the forest stock volume by around 45 billion cubic meters compared to 2005

To achieve this a series of policies and measures were proposed including for energy system industry buildings transportation and carbon sinks

As for adaptation China proposed to ldquoproactively adapt to climate change by enhancing mechanisms and capacities to effectively defend against climate change risks in key areasrdquo and to ldquoprogressively strengthen early warning and emergency response systems and disaster prevention and reduction mechanismsrdquo covering various sectors including agriculture forestry and water resources as well as in cities coastal and ecologically vulnerable areas

Progress in implementation Chinarsquos 2020 target to reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45 was reached already in 2017 and the target for forest stock volume was also over-fulfilled With Chinarsquos renewable energy industry boom the proportion of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption increased to 138 by

11 Non-fossil fuels here mean renewables and nuclear energy

Photo copy

ArtisticP

hoto Shutterstockcom

z

15

2017 These achievements also give China a solid foundation to reach its 2030 targets before that date

Coal consumption control and the transition from coal to non-fossil fuels might be the most important drivers for Chinarsquos progress While coal remains the dominant fuel in China the percentage of coal in total energy consumption decreased from 724 in 2005 to 604 in 2017 In contrast Chinarsquos renewable energy sector is booming According to REN21 China ranks as the worldrsquos leader in total renewables capacity and also in solar PV wind and geothermal heating capacity and investment in renewables capacity12 By the end of 2017 Chinarsquos total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 650GW with massive growth in wind and solar power especially It is estimated that Chinarsquos proportion of non-fossil energy sources will reach and surpass 15 by 2020

The policies issued and the actions implemented by Chinese government and other stakeholders will ensure a full fulfillment of the commitment that Chinese government has pledged to the international society Most prominently Chinarsquos international pledges and national targets are backed up by national strategies policies and detailed implementation measures with transparency and accountability mechanism

Potential for increased ambition According to a survey done by the China Carbon Forum 87 of respondents expect China to achieve the carbon emissions peak by 2030 the latest and 48 even expect it by 2025 or earlier13 Most of the research revealed that China could peak earlier than or well before 2030 and one study shows that Chinarsquos carbon emissions are likely to peak between 2020 and 202214 Given its economic restructuring potential China could achieve an emissions peak around 2023 with efforts in energy efficiency lowering the CO2 intensity in Chinarsquos GDP by just over 71 by 2030 compared to 2005 thus exceeding the NDC target of 60-6515

The transition trend from coal to renewables and other low carbon energy sources might be a great driver for China to overachieve its 2030 targets A new study released by the China National Renewable Energy Centre reveals that it is possible and beneficial for Chinarsquos fossil fuel use to peak in 2020 and decline steadily towards 203516 According to a 2015 WWF report around 84 of Chinarsquos electricity generation can be met with renewable sources by mid-century and the number is expected to be 49 in 203017

Given the above progress and scenario analyses we believe China has the potential to improve its NDC in terms of the peaking timeline share of non-fossil fuel in the primary energy consumption and carbon intensity targets showing more leadership as a torchbearer in global climate governance There is also reason to expect China to soon propose a long-term strategy for 2050 under the 15degC and 2degC scenarios

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Chinese government has shown strong political will on environmental protection in recent years through emphasizing the concept of ldquoecological civilizationrdquo Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China the environment has risen to an unprecedented status

12 REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report

13 China Carbon Forum 2018 ldquo2018 China Carbon Pricing Surveyrdquo

14 Chinadialogue 5 June 2018 ldquoRoundtable Is China still on track to reach its Paris targetsrdquo httpswwwchinadialoguenetarticleshowsingleen10653-Roundtable-Is-China-still-on-track-to-reach-its-Paris-targets- 15 Qilin Liu Qi Lei Huiming Xu etal ldquoChinarsquos energy revolution strategy into 2030rdquo in Resources Conservation and Recycling 2018 128 78-89

16 China National Renewable Energy Center 2018 ldquoChina Renewable Energy Outlook 2018rdquo

17 WWF 2015 ldquoChinarsquos Future Generation 20rdquo httpsd2ouvy59p0dg6kcloudfrontnetdownloadschina_s_future_generation_2_0_reportpdf

16

in the national development agenda The main driving force for environmental protection is the need for sustainable development including the need to fight air pollution

While US President Donald Trump has announced that the US will be pulling out of the Paris Agreement the China government has several times reaffirmed its commitment to the Agreement and the countryrsquos targets However it should also be noted that international trade tension between China and the US and the domestic challenges of slower economic growth arising from that have resulted in some conservative arguments against ambitious climate action in China18

Recommendations For China to reach its sustainable development ambition and goal of becoming an ldquoecological civilizationrdquo by mid-century and when considering the need for urgent and ambitious climate actions to avoid global warming over 15degC it should take the following actions

Revise its climate targets and commitments under the Paris Agreement by 2020 by

Bringing the timeline for emissions peaking to around 2022

Proposing a carbon emission reduction pathway for the period after the peaking to be in line with the Paris Agreementrsquos 15-2degC target

Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy to achieve a higher share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030

Accelerate its energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by

Strengthening coal consumption control halting new coal power and eliminating inefficient capacity

Reducing dispersed coal burning through efficiency improvement reduction and clean energy replacement

Accelerating power sector reform to create an environment for promoting large-scale and distributed deployment of renewable energy

Enhance international cooperation to take more leadership in addressing global climate change by

Supporting other developing countries to improve their capacity to achieving their climate targets through south-south cooperation on climate change

Shifting Chinarsquos oversea energy investments from coal to renewables to accelerate the pace and scale of the worldrsquos transition to a sustainable model of energy and development

18 Li Shuo 28 October 2018 ldquoDoes China Still Want to Be a Global Environmental Leaderrdquo httpsthediplomatcom201810does-china-still-want-to-be-a-global-environmental-leader

17

EUROPEAN UNION CASE STUDY Description of NDC The EU NDC purely focuses on mitigation outlining the agreed EU domestic emissions reduction target the implementation process and a narrative on why the EU believes its NDC is fair and ambitious This submission covers the collective contribution of the EU and the 28 Member States

The commitment is for the EU and the Member States to achieve an unconditional economy-wide ldquobinding target of an at least 40 domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990rdquo on 100 of emissions to be achieved domestically without the use of international credits19 The commitment period for the target is from January 1st 2021 (the EUrsquos second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol ends on December 31st 2020) to December 31st 2030 Additional legislation was created to facilitate the achievement of this goal including on LULUCF energy and transport The NDC holds no concrete information on any non-mitigation elements eg adaptation climate finance loss amp damage Complementing its NDC is the European Commission Communication lsquoThe Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 202020 which briefly discusses basic elements on several issues including climate finance adaptation and mitigation cycles

Progress in implementation The EUrsquos 2030 climate and energy framework21 -politically agreed in October 2014- forms the basis of its NDC The various pieces of legislation that pursue the attainment of the NDC target were agreed between 2016 and 2018 by EU Member States and European Parliament Of note based on the EUrsquos own calculations new legislative targets on renewable energy uptake and 19 European Commission (2015) Environment Council approves the EUs intended nationally determined contribution to the new global climate agreement Available at httpseceuropaeuclimanewsarticlesnews_2015030601_en 20 European Commission 2015 The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 httpeceuropaeutransparencyregdocrep12015EN1-2015-81-EN-F1-1PDF

21 European Commission 2014 European Council Conclusions httpwwwconsiliumeuropaeuuedocscms_datadocspressdataenec145397pdf

Photo copy

Hung C

hung Chih Shutterstockcom

z

18

energy efficiency measures mean that the EUrsquos emissions (if all Member States achieve these targets) will be reduced by 4522 by 2030 However this higher target is by no means in line with achieving 15degC or with becoming a net-zero economy well-before mid-century23 let alone the EUrsquos equitable fair-share

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Paris Agreement marked a significant shift in global ambition on climate change and committed EU Member States and other UNFCCC parties to keeping average global temperature rise lsquowell belowrsquo 2degC and to pursuing efforts to limit it to 15degC

A few options exist that can be used to create the impetus for a revised higher level of EU ambition in 2030 The EU justifies its insufficient NDC by quoting various IPCC assessment reports Following this logic the EU should now begin using the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC as the basis for all of its actions Moreover while the Paris Agreement has been agreed the rules governing it are yet to be agreed so ensuring a strong and successful completion of these rules may help to reignite the debate on increased EU ambition In October 2018 the EUrsquos position for COP24 states that the EU will ldquocommunicate or update its NDC by 2020 taking into account the collective further efforts needed and actions undertaken by all Parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreementrdquo24 In this same position the EU highlighted the importance of the Global Stocktake in 2023 for enhancing climate action by acknowledging the Paris Agreementrsquos wider ambition cycle To round out this list of options the European Parliament recently voted to show support for an EU emissions reduction target of 55 by 203025

Typically for any ambition increase to occur all EU Heads of State and Government need to politically guide a target increase The next appropriate moment to discuss an increase is when they examine a new long-term climate and energy target and strategy for the EU which will most likely take place May 2019 This meeting would be an opportune moment for EU Member States to examine their own long-term targets thereby contributing information that would allow the bloc as a whole to explore what prospects there are for an even more ambitious NDC target in line with a new EU long-term target However no clear signal from all EU Member States has been sent that they would support such a revision of the EU NDC target Moreover the legislative right to initiate a revision lies with the European Commission a change in its cabinet is foreseen after the European Parliament elections (052019) the implications of which will only be known after it happens

Another track that can be used to pursue higher ambition is at the EU Member States level All EU Member States must develop and submit final national climate and energy plans (NECPS) by the end of 2019 outlining how a Member State will achieve their share of the EU 2030 targets With these plans Member States also have the opportunity to highlight measures that allow their domestic emissions reductions to go beyond the minimal action required to fulfil their share of the EU targets eg coal-phase out ahead of 2030 permanent cancellation of ETS allowances or higher rates of deployment of sustainable technologies ie renewable energy energy efficiency

Indeed a few EU Member States have called for increased EU ambition26 while other EU Member States have called for the EU to focus on implementing existing EU policies before looking to

22 European Commission (2018) Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Cantildeete at the High Level Stakeholder Conference The EUs Vision of a modern clean and competitive economy Available at httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_SPEECH-18-4447_enhtm 23 Climate Action Tracker (2018) EU Available at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieseu 24 Consilium (2018) Climate change Council adopts conclusions for COP24 Council of the EU Available here httpswwwconsiliumeuropaeuenpresspress-releases20181009climate-change-council-adopts-conclusions

25 European Parliament (2018) COP24 Resolution Available at httpwwweuroparleuropaeunewsenpress-room20181018IPR16550paris-agreement-meps-call-for-stepping-up-eu-climate-commitments 26 Bureau Woordvoering Kabinetsformatie (2018) Coalition agreement Trust in the future [Kingdom of the Netherlands Cabinet Coalition government] Available at httpswwwkabinetsformatie2017nldocumentenpublicaties20171010regeerakkoord-vertrouwen-in-de-toekomst_sp=97c0f122-98ad-4998-91f4-dc49cdd03a6c1507635788124

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

4

IPCC AND THE GAP TO MEETING PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS In 2018 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a special report on the impacts of global warming of 15degC and related global greenhouse gas emissions pathways This report was prepared in response to an invitation contained in the Decision to adopt the Paris Agreement

The report concludes that global warming is likely to reach 15 between 2030 and 2052 if warming continues to increase at the current rate To halt anthropogenic global warming in the next few decades would require reaching and sustaining net-zero global CO2 emissions and declining net non-CO2 radiative forcing On longer timescales net negative CO2 emissions andor further reductions in non-CO2 radiative forcing may still be required to prevent further warming

If the commitments given in the current NDCs submitted under the Paris Agreement are met emissions in 2030 are estimated to be 52-58 GtCO2yr-1 This level of emissions would not limit global warming to 15 even if there were very challenging increases in the scale and ambition of emission reductions after 2030 If the temperature rise is to be limited to 15degC with no or limited overshoot emissions must be below 35 GtCO2yr-1 by 20301 The lower the emissions in 2030 the lower the challenge in limiting global warming to 15degC after 2030 with no or limited overshoot

Limiting global warming to 15degC requires rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy land urban environment and infrastructure such as transport and buildings and industrial systems The rate of system change required has occurred in the past but only within specific sectors technologies or geographies and not at the scale that will now be needed to meet Paris goals Specific changes in pathways limiting global warming to 15degC include

Lower energy use through enhanced energy efficiency and fast electrification of energy end use

Renewables providing 70-85 of electricity in 2050

Increasing nuclear and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage

CO2 emissions from industry decreasing by 75-90 in 2050 relative to 2010

Share of low emission final energy in the transport sector rising from less than 5 in 2030 to about 35-65 in 2050

Large transitions in global and regional land use - their scale depending on the mitigation portfolio

Annual average energy-related mitigation investment for the period 2015-2050 around US$ 900 billion

In addition to reducing emissions all pathways with limited or no overshoot of 15degC project the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) Significant near-term emissions reductions and measures to lower energy and land demand can limit CDR deployment

There are multiple synergies and trade-offs between mitigation options deployed in 15degC consistent pathways and the sustainable development goals Pathways that include low energy demand low material consumption and low greenhouse gas intensive food consumption have the

1 All but one of the pathways limiting global warming to 15 have emissions below this level by 2030

5

most pronounced synergies and the lowest number of trade-offs with respect to sustainable development

Even with 15degC global warming there will be increased climate-related risks to health livelihoods food security water supply human security and economic growth If the temperature increases to 2degC the risks are still higher The figure below illustrates some of the impacts and risks for people economies and ecosystems at different degrees of warming Already at 15degC there are high risks associated with unique and threatened systems (ecological and human ecosystems with restricted geographic range eg coral reefs and the Arctic and its indigenous peoples) and extreme weather events At 2degC there are high to very high risks across all the Reasons for Concern

Source IPCC Special report on Global Warming of 15 degrees Celsius Summary for Policy Makers

A wide range of adaptation options are available to reduce the risks to ecosystems but at 2degC adaptation is expected to be more challenging for ecosystems food and health systems than for 15degC Even at 15degC vulnerable regions such as small islands are projected to face multiple and interrelated climate risks

6

The message to be taken from the IPCC report is thus that to limit the worst impacts of climate change on ecosystems and humans significantly more ambitious action is needed from all levels of government the private sector and civil society

THE PARIS AGREEMENT AND ITS AMBITION MECHANISM The Paris Agreementrsquos central goal is to limit global temperature rise to well below 2degC above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit still further to 15degC

The agreement also aims to strengthen the ability of countries to deal with the impacts of climate change NDCs represent the contribution of each Party towards meeting the goals of the Agreement Developed country Parties are asked to take the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets Developing country Parties are encouraged over time to move towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets

The Paris Agreement was adopted by Decision 1CP21 This Decision emphasises the urgent need to address the gap between the emissions which would result from the aggregate pledges of the Parties and the emissions needed to hold the temperature to well below 2degC In recognising this gap it also emphasises the urgency of implementing the Kyoto Protocol to enhance pre-2020 ambition Measures set out in the Decision to enhance action pre-2020 include strengthening the technical examination process enhancement of the provision of urgent finance technology and support and measures to strengthen high-level engagement

The Paris Agreement established a five-year cycle for communication of the NDCs with increasing ambition in each subsequent NDC Submitted NDCs have different timeframes for their commitments some have 2025 timeframes others 2030 Decision 1CP21 encourages countries with a 2025 timescale to submit new NDCs by 2020 while those with 2030 timeframes are called upon to update their NDC by 2020 The Talanoa Dialogue which is the renamed facilitative dialogue from the Decision was launched in January 2018 to drive higher ambition in the NDCs submitted in 2020

For every five year cycle NDCs must be submitted at least 9 to 12 months in advance of the relevant Conference of Parties (COP) This is to allow time for the UNFCCC secretariat to synthesise the NDCs in a report As part of the five-year cycle there will also be a global stocktake on collective progress towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement - the first being in 2023 The outcomes from the stocktake will inform Parties in updating and enhancing their actions and support and enhance international cooperation The design of the global stocktake and the sources of information to be used are still being negotiated

In addition to the sufficiently ambitious NDCs all Parties should strive to formulate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies These should take into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in the light of different national circumstances They are invited to communicate these strategies to the UNFCCC secretariat by 2020 To date only a few countries have communicated these strategies

7

ACTION ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL ndash CASE STUDIES ON IMPROVING NDCS As WWF is present in about 100 different countries and works closely with national governments on developing national climate policies and strategies and implementing NDCs we have assembled this series of ten case studies to contribute to discussions and inspire further climate action and ambition at COP 24 and beyond

The case studies presented in this section describe the current commitments in NDCs2 in a selection of countries discuss the developments in those countries with regard to climate change action and include recommendations to increase ambition in those NDCs

2 Submitted NDCs can be viewed at httpswww4unfcccintsitesNDCStagingPagesAllaspx

8

BRAZIL CASE STUDY Description of NDC The Brazilian NDC set the goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37 below 2005 levels in 2025 As a subsequent indicative contribution Brazil intends to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43 below 2005 levels in 2030 Brazilrsquos NDC is economy wide and consistent with the long-term vision of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2degC above pre-industrial levels

In addition Brazilrsquos commitments included specific targets to increase the share of sustainable biofuels in the Brazilian energy mix to approximately 18 by 2030 by expand biofuel consumption increase ethanol supply strengthen policies and measures with a view to achieving zero illegal deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon by 2030 restore and reforest 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 restore an additional 15 million hectares of degraded pasturelands by 2030 and enhance 5 million hectares of integrated cropland-livestock-forestry systems by 2030 achieve 45 of renewables in the energy mix by 2030 including expanding the use of renewable energy sources other than hydropower in the total energy mix to between 28 and 33 by 2030 among other commitments

Regarding adaptation the Brazilian NDC commits to implementing policies and measures to adapt to climate change and contribute to building resilience of populations ecosystems infrastructure and production systems by reducing vulnerability and through the provision of ecosystem services The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) is one of the policies to be implemented

Photo copy Paulo de Abreu Shutterstockcom

9

Progress in implementation Over the last three years Brazilian society has made some advances in raising awareness about the strategy for implementation of the Brazilian NDC Several studies workshops and sectoral contributions were presented to guide government decisions on the Brazilian commitments to the Paris Agreement Among the studies we highlight a document from Brazilian Forum of Climate Change (FBMC acronym in Portuguese wwwfbmccombr ) ldquoShort-term Measures for Implementation of the Brazilian NDCrdquo3

In August 2018 the document was delivered to the President Michel Temer by the FBMC The president signed an act requesting the Forum to elaborate a position on the possibilities of reaching this long-term goal by 2060 This is the first time that Brazil has signaled this goal and the first step in Brazilrsquos positioning in relation to a long-term strategy for net-zero emissions

Other important documents are also ldquoIES-Brasil - Economic and Social Implications GHG Mitigation Scenarios 2030rdquo4 a scenario study that shows the economic and social benefits of NDC compliance and the additional benefits of increased ambition of mitigation targets (this study was supported by WWF-Brazil) and ldquoOptions for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation in Key Sectors of Brazilrdquo5 a study that estimates the potential and costs of GHG emission abatement through an integrated economic-energy analysis for the period between 2012 and 2050 in the different key sectors

Potential for increased ambition Systematically and annually reduce anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases for

the whole of Brazilrsquos economy by a maximum of 1 GtCO2e in 2030

Strengthen policies and measures to achieve the zero conversion of natural habitat of all biomes by 2030 and the reduction of deforestation rates of all biomes by 50 by 2020 and by 80 by 2025 in relation to the base year 2015

Restore and reforest 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 prioritizing the restoration of liabilities in permanent preservation areas (APPs)

Extend the scale of forest management systems in the Amazon to reach 20 million hectares by 2030 through georeferencing systems for forest production and traceability of their products with a view to discouraging illegal and unsustainable practices

3 httpsdrivegooglecomfiled1Z3f2vVILNx12ciZzTNGOE72qbQC4hcrdview

4httpwwwcentroclimacoppeufrjbrimagesNoticiasdocumentosies-brasil-20301_sumario-executivo-portuguespdf

5httpswwwmcticgovbrmcticopencmscienciaSEPEDclimaopcoes_mitigacaoOpcoes_de_Mitigacao_de_Emissoes_de_Gases_de_Efeito_Estufa_GEE_em_SetoresChave_do_Brasilhtml

10

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Brazil had Presidential elections in October 2018 It is unclear whether the new government that will take office on January 1st 2019 will maintain the same level of commitment to the NDC implementation as the previous government

Recommendations Brazil has the potential to increase ambition in the NDC Recommendations to achieve this include

Create a plan to discourage investments in new fossil fuel power plants Increase investment for non-hydro renewable sources aiming at the resilience and safety of the national electricity mix

Create instruments for the improvement of financing lines for microgeneration

Develop an efficient industrial policy to promote the competitiveness of non-hydro renewables

Expand biofuel and food production in degraded pasture areas

Accelerate implementation of the Forest Code ensuring public transparency and social control

Increase recovery of degraded pastures

Strengthen technical assistance to implement sustainable practices and improvement of productivity in livestock

11

CHILE CASE STUDY Description of NDC Chile has pledged unconditional conditional (on international financial support in the form of grants) and specific land-use and land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) targets Unconditionally Chile committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of GDP to 30 below 2007 levels by 2030 This target covers the energy industrial processes and waste sectors Climate Action Tracker (2018) estimates that this will lead to GHG emissions levels of 154 above 1990 and 42 above 2010 excluding LULUCF based on current GDP projections managed by the government6 The conditional target is a 35ndash45 reduction of GHG emission intensity of GDP below 2007 levels by 2030 which according to Climate Action Tracker is equivalent to 100ndash136 above 1990 levels and 12ndash24 above 2010 GHG emissions levels excluding LULUCF Regarding LULUCF Chile pledged to sustainably manage and recover 100000 hectares (ha) of forest by 2030 and to reforest 100000 ha subject to approval of new laws Chile is one of the few countries to separate the LULUCF sector target from other emissions which increases the transparency of its proposed actions On adaptation Chile pledged to develop sectoral adaptation plans to establish specific measures and mechanisms to measure progress

Progress in implementation Since COP21 the Chilean Government has made significant progress in elaborating national plans for mitigation in the energy sector and for adaptation following a sector-specific approach including forestry and agriculture infrastructure biodiversity fisheries health and cities Moreover under the Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) initiative supported by the World 6 httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieschile

12

Bank Chile has been analysing carbon pricing options since 2015 Although the current carbon tax remains ineffective in terms of mitigation outcomes (US$5tCO2) institutional capacity was built for monitoring and reporting for the largest CO2 emissions sources at the national level In 2017 Chile issued a National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) which includes the first national-level Emissions Reduction Programme that targets reductions in the rates of land and forest degradation and also increasing forest carbon capture through reforestation It is expected that over a period of 9 years improvements in AFOLU-related policies and in management programs would contribute significantly towards Chileacutes NDC while accessing results-based-payments in the carbon market7 However a mega fire outbreak in early 2017 affecting 600000 ha of forest plantations grasslands and native forests demonstrated the vulnerability of land - both encompassed by this Programme and beyond it - to climate change

The frequency and extent of fires in the Centre and South of Chile is the greatest factor of uncertainty and could be determinant in shaping Chileacutes future GHG emissions trajectory Before 2017 the AFOLU sector was a net absorber of emissions mostly associated to the expansion of forest plantations and played a significant role in reducing the overall net balance of emissions However excluding AFOLU since 1990 net national emissions steadily rose due to increasing rate of burning of fossil fuels (IPCC energy sector) This overall trend continues today

Potential for increased ambition In the run-up to a revised NDC in 2020 the greatest potential for increased ambition lies in GHG mitigation in the energy generation sector Chiles geography political stability robust economy and energy market conditions create an exceptional environment to accelerate the transition to a low emissions economy Nevertheless this will require phase-out of coal capacity before it reaches end-of-life Coal reached 53 of installed capacity in May 20188 versus 18 of current renewable capacity In early 2018 Chile announced that it will not build any new coal-fired power plants (without CCS) and will develop a plan to phase out coal as coal-fired power permitting has stalled in recent years due to the comparatively low costs of renewable energy Current solar PV and onshore wind costs in Chile are as low as US$ 003kWh to US$ 004kWh9 However under business as usual (BAU) conditions the fact that a significant portion of coal plants have been built in recent years means that projections are for a 19 share for coal in electricity generation in 2050 This share would need to be close to zero to make Chileacutes energy sector compatible to 15degC10 Chiles Ministry of Energy is leading a roundtable to analyse the best options for the decommissioning or reconversion of coal-plant capacity but there is still the need for strong political will corporate leadership and citizen engagement to ensure that Chile can include coal-phase out as a key measure for increased NDC ambition in 2020

The National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) launched in 2017 provides a solid foundation to scale-up and integrate other land-based and nature-based mitigation and adaptation solutions particularly through forest landscape restoration This is an opportunity to reduce the severity of extensive fires Work through this strategy to increase landscape resilience will help ensure baseline conditions are maintained and take advantage of the opportunity to capture mitigation and reduced land vulnerability (adaptation) In this context a national forest restoration plan with the goal of restoring up to 1M ha coupled with watershed management measures and scaled-up plans for biodiversity protection (such as those proposed under the National Adaptation Plan for Biodiversity) would show clear signs of Chilersquos commitment Mitigation in LULUCF is still a low hanging fruit for increased NDC mitigation ambition that addresses further social and environmental needs for adaptation and sustainable development while opening the opportunity to integrate ecosystem protection for future generations

7 httpwwwconafclcmseditorwebENCCRVNota-Informativa-24pdf 8 httpgeneradorascldocumentosboletinesboletin-mercado-electrico-sector-generacion-junio-2018

9 httpswwwirenaorgpublications2018JanRenewable-power-generation-costs-in-2017

10 Climate Tracker 2018

13

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Chilersquos 2050 Energy Policy (PE2050) aims for renewable targets of at least 60 by 2035 and 70 by 2050 for electricity generation Recently the Energy Route 2018-2022 the Mitigation Plan for the Energy Sector and the Electromobility Strategy stand out as complementary policies that together should foster increased energy efficiency scaling-up small distributed energy and introducing 100 electric public transport and 40 electric private vehicle fleet by 2050 These developments represent strong signals for change however there is still the need to determine how the government will deploy measures improve enabling conditions for the private sector and ensure a participatory approach with citizens particularly in the cases where local impact is expected Furthermore there is an urgent need to accelerate adaptation response across the territory While adaptation sectoral plans are being developed at the national level it is crucial to move forward in implementation plans with strong local and regional participation

Recommendations For Chile to increase its NDC ambition it should

Include the mitigation resulting from a national agreement and plan to phase out coal-fired generation in the NDC in 2020 The government companies and local community representatives should continue working on transparent criteria to determine the timelines support and measures involved in the decommissioning of each unit

By 2020 improve the design and expand the scope of the current carbon tax to include other highly emitting sectors Establishing a gradually rising carbon price will provide more certainty to investors that play a key role in scaling up the implementation of climate-compatible projects

For successful coal phase-out the NDC should include a commitment to work with the private sector and civil society to ensure enabling policy conditions for renewable energy capacity to replace coal-fired capacity by building a reliable efficient inclusive sustainable and secure system

The NDC can also include at least a portion of mitigation results expected by 2030 through the implementation of the Electromobility Plan launched in 2018 Including electromobility in Chileacutes NDC will reflect institutional commitment on this matter which in turn will better position this emerging market in the map of investors

Introduce a significantly stronger target for forest landscape restoration (up to 1M ha) that accelerates national action and accesses international support to reduce the exposure to water scarcity and conditions leading to fires which peak LULUCF emissions (as in 2016-17) Moreover a commitment to develop land-based (including nature-based) adaptation measures is increasingly critical to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience across the country

Support increased NDC ambition in 2020 by pooling mitigation potentials by 2030 from coal phase out the expansion of renewable energy utility and distributed capacity and progress in electromobility While fires are becoming a great factor of uncertainty it is still possible and necessary to increase LULUCFAFOLU mitigation ambition Chile is already piloting results-based-payments and further reforestation and reducing land and forest degradation are critical to reduce vulnerability strengthen resilience and adaptation while also protecting essential ecosystem services biodiversity and to incentivise decentralised sustainable development

14

CHINA CASE STUDY Description of NDC China submitted its NDC to the UNFCCC in June 2015 It covers targets policies and implementation measures for both mitigation and adaptation

The key targets of the NDC to be achieved around or by 2030 are summarized as follows a) to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and make best efforts to peak earlier than that b) to lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65 from the 2005 level c) to increase the share of non-fossil fuels11 in primary energy consumption to around 20 and d) to increase the forest stock volume by around 45 billion cubic meters compared to 2005

To achieve this a series of policies and measures were proposed including for energy system industry buildings transportation and carbon sinks

As for adaptation China proposed to ldquoproactively adapt to climate change by enhancing mechanisms and capacities to effectively defend against climate change risks in key areasrdquo and to ldquoprogressively strengthen early warning and emergency response systems and disaster prevention and reduction mechanismsrdquo covering various sectors including agriculture forestry and water resources as well as in cities coastal and ecologically vulnerable areas

Progress in implementation Chinarsquos 2020 target to reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45 was reached already in 2017 and the target for forest stock volume was also over-fulfilled With Chinarsquos renewable energy industry boom the proportion of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption increased to 138 by

11 Non-fossil fuels here mean renewables and nuclear energy

Photo copy

ArtisticP

hoto Shutterstockcom

z

15

2017 These achievements also give China a solid foundation to reach its 2030 targets before that date

Coal consumption control and the transition from coal to non-fossil fuels might be the most important drivers for Chinarsquos progress While coal remains the dominant fuel in China the percentage of coal in total energy consumption decreased from 724 in 2005 to 604 in 2017 In contrast Chinarsquos renewable energy sector is booming According to REN21 China ranks as the worldrsquos leader in total renewables capacity and also in solar PV wind and geothermal heating capacity and investment in renewables capacity12 By the end of 2017 Chinarsquos total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 650GW with massive growth in wind and solar power especially It is estimated that Chinarsquos proportion of non-fossil energy sources will reach and surpass 15 by 2020

The policies issued and the actions implemented by Chinese government and other stakeholders will ensure a full fulfillment of the commitment that Chinese government has pledged to the international society Most prominently Chinarsquos international pledges and national targets are backed up by national strategies policies and detailed implementation measures with transparency and accountability mechanism

Potential for increased ambition According to a survey done by the China Carbon Forum 87 of respondents expect China to achieve the carbon emissions peak by 2030 the latest and 48 even expect it by 2025 or earlier13 Most of the research revealed that China could peak earlier than or well before 2030 and one study shows that Chinarsquos carbon emissions are likely to peak between 2020 and 202214 Given its economic restructuring potential China could achieve an emissions peak around 2023 with efforts in energy efficiency lowering the CO2 intensity in Chinarsquos GDP by just over 71 by 2030 compared to 2005 thus exceeding the NDC target of 60-6515

The transition trend from coal to renewables and other low carbon energy sources might be a great driver for China to overachieve its 2030 targets A new study released by the China National Renewable Energy Centre reveals that it is possible and beneficial for Chinarsquos fossil fuel use to peak in 2020 and decline steadily towards 203516 According to a 2015 WWF report around 84 of Chinarsquos electricity generation can be met with renewable sources by mid-century and the number is expected to be 49 in 203017

Given the above progress and scenario analyses we believe China has the potential to improve its NDC in terms of the peaking timeline share of non-fossil fuel in the primary energy consumption and carbon intensity targets showing more leadership as a torchbearer in global climate governance There is also reason to expect China to soon propose a long-term strategy for 2050 under the 15degC and 2degC scenarios

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Chinese government has shown strong political will on environmental protection in recent years through emphasizing the concept of ldquoecological civilizationrdquo Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China the environment has risen to an unprecedented status

12 REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report

13 China Carbon Forum 2018 ldquo2018 China Carbon Pricing Surveyrdquo

14 Chinadialogue 5 June 2018 ldquoRoundtable Is China still on track to reach its Paris targetsrdquo httpswwwchinadialoguenetarticleshowsingleen10653-Roundtable-Is-China-still-on-track-to-reach-its-Paris-targets- 15 Qilin Liu Qi Lei Huiming Xu etal ldquoChinarsquos energy revolution strategy into 2030rdquo in Resources Conservation and Recycling 2018 128 78-89

16 China National Renewable Energy Center 2018 ldquoChina Renewable Energy Outlook 2018rdquo

17 WWF 2015 ldquoChinarsquos Future Generation 20rdquo httpsd2ouvy59p0dg6kcloudfrontnetdownloadschina_s_future_generation_2_0_reportpdf

16

in the national development agenda The main driving force for environmental protection is the need for sustainable development including the need to fight air pollution

While US President Donald Trump has announced that the US will be pulling out of the Paris Agreement the China government has several times reaffirmed its commitment to the Agreement and the countryrsquos targets However it should also be noted that international trade tension between China and the US and the domestic challenges of slower economic growth arising from that have resulted in some conservative arguments against ambitious climate action in China18

Recommendations For China to reach its sustainable development ambition and goal of becoming an ldquoecological civilizationrdquo by mid-century and when considering the need for urgent and ambitious climate actions to avoid global warming over 15degC it should take the following actions

Revise its climate targets and commitments under the Paris Agreement by 2020 by

Bringing the timeline for emissions peaking to around 2022

Proposing a carbon emission reduction pathway for the period after the peaking to be in line with the Paris Agreementrsquos 15-2degC target

Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy to achieve a higher share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030

Accelerate its energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by

Strengthening coal consumption control halting new coal power and eliminating inefficient capacity

Reducing dispersed coal burning through efficiency improvement reduction and clean energy replacement

Accelerating power sector reform to create an environment for promoting large-scale and distributed deployment of renewable energy

Enhance international cooperation to take more leadership in addressing global climate change by

Supporting other developing countries to improve their capacity to achieving their climate targets through south-south cooperation on climate change

Shifting Chinarsquos oversea energy investments from coal to renewables to accelerate the pace and scale of the worldrsquos transition to a sustainable model of energy and development

18 Li Shuo 28 October 2018 ldquoDoes China Still Want to Be a Global Environmental Leaderrdquo httpsthediplomatcom201810does-china-still-want-to-be-a-global-environmental-leader

17

EUROPEAN UNION CASE STUDY Description of NDC The EU NDC purely focuses on mitigation outlining the agreed EU domestic emissions reduction target the implementation process and a narrative on why the EU believes its NDC is fair and ambitious This submission covers the collective contribution of the EU and the 28 Member States

The commitment is for the EU and the Member States to achieve an unconditional economy-wide ldquobinding target of an at least 40 domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990rdquo on 100 of emissions to be achieved domestically without the use of international credits19 The commitment period for the target is from January 1st 2021 (the EUrsquos second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol ends on December 31st 2020) to December 31st 2030 Additional legislation was created to facilitate the achievement of this goal including on LULUCF energy and transport The NDC holds no concrete information on any non-mitigation elements eg adaptation climate finance loss amp damage Complementing its NDC is the European Commission Communication lsquoThe Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 202020 which briefly discusses basic elements on several issues including climate finance adaptation and mitigation cycles

Progress in implementation The EUrsquos 2030 climate and energy framework21 -politically agreed in October 2014- forms the basis of its NDC The various pieces of legislation that pursue the attainment of the NDC target were agreed between 2016 and 2018 by EU Member States and European Parliament Of note based on the EUrsquos own calculations new legislative targets on renewable energy uptake and 19 European Commission (2015) Environment Council approves the EUs intended nationally determined contribution to the new global climate agreement Available at httpseceuropaeuclimanewsarticlesnews_2015030601_en 20 European Commission 2015 The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 httpeceuropaeutransparencyregdocrep12015EN1-2015-81-EN-F1-1PDF

21 European Commission 2014 European Council Conclusions httpwwwconsiliumeuropaeuuedocscms_datadocspressdataenec145397pdf

Photo copy

Hung C

hung Chih Shutterstockcom

z

18

energy efficiency measures mean that the EUrsquos emissions (if all Member States achieve these targets) will be reduced by 4522 by 2030 However this higher target is by no means in line with achieving 15degC or with becoming a net-zero economy well-before mid-century23 let alone the EUrsquos equitable fair-share

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Paris Agreement marked a significant shift in global ambition on climate change and committed EU Member States and other UNFCCC parties to keeping average global temperature rise lsquowell belowrsquo 2degC and to pursuing efforts to limit it to 15degC

A few options exist that can be used to create the impetus for a revised higher level of EU ambition in 2030 The EU justifies its insufficient NDC by quoting various IPCC assessment reports Following this logic the EU should now begin using the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC as the basis for all of its actions Moreover while the Paris Agreement has been agreed the rules governing it are yet to be agreed so ensuring a strong and successful completion of these rules may help to reignite the debate on increased EU ambition In October 2018 the EUrsquos position for COP24 states that the EU will ldquocommunicate or update its NDC by 2020 taking into account the collective further efforts needed and actions undertaken by all Parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreementrdquo24 In this same position the EU highlighted the importance of the Global Stocktake in 2023 for enhancing climate action by acknowledging the Paris Agreementrsquos wider ambition cycle To round out this list of options the European Parliament recently voted to show support for an EU emissions reduction target of 55 by 203025

Typically for any ambition increase to occur all EU Heads of State and Government need to politically guide a target increase The next appropriate moment to discuss an increase is when they examine a new long-term climate and energy target and strategy for the EU which will most likely take place May 2019 This meeting would be an opportune moment for EU Member States to examine their own long-term targets thereby contributing information that would allow the bloc as a whole to explore what prospects there are for an even more ambitious NDC target in line with a new EU long-term target However no clear signal from all EU Member States has been sent that they would support such a revision of the EU NDC target Moreover the legislative right to initiate a revision lies with the European Commission a change in its cabinet is foreseen after the European Parliament elections (052019) the implications of which will only be known after it happens

Another track that can be used to pursue higher ambition is at the EU Member States level All EU Member States must develop and submit final national climate and energy plans (NECPS) by the end of 2019 outlining how a Member State will achieve their share of the EU 2030 targets With these plans Member States also have the opportunity to highlight measures that allow their domestic emissions reductions to go beyond the minimal action required to fulfil their share of the EU targets eg coal-phase out ahead of 2030 permanent cancellation of ETS allowances or higher rates of deployment of sustainable technologies ie renewable energy energy efficiency

Indeed a few EU Member States have called for increased EU ambition26 while other EU Member States have called for the EU to focus on implementing existing EU policies before looking to

22 European Commission (2018) Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Cantildeete at the High Level Stakeholder Conference The EUs Vision of a modern clean and competitive economy Available at httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_SPEECH-18-4447_enhtm 23 Climate Action Tracker (2018) EU Available at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieseu 24 Consilium (2018) Climate change Council adopts conclusions for COP24 Council of the EU Available here httpswwwconsiliumeuropaeuenpresspress-releases20181009climate-change-council-adopts-conclusions

25 European Parliament (2018) COP24 Resolution Available at httpwwweuroparleuropaeunewsenpress-room20181018IPR16550paris-agreement-meps-call-for-stepping-up-eu-climate-commitments 26 Bureau Woordvoering Kabinetsformatie (2018) Coalition agreement Trust in the future [Kingdom of the Netherlands Cabinet Coalition government] Available at httpswwwkabinetsformatie2017nldocumentenpublicaties20171010regeerakkoord-vertrouwen-in-de-toekomst_sp=97c0f122-98ad-4998-91f4-dc49cdd03a6c1507635788124

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

5

most pronounced synergies and the lowest number of trade-offs with respect to sustainable development

Even with 15degC global warming there will be increased climate-related risks to health livelihoods food security water supply human security and economic growth If the temperature increases to 2degC the risks are still higher The figure below illustrates some of the impacts and risks for people economies and ecosystems at different degrees of warming Already at 15degC there are high risks associated with unique and threatened systems (ecological and human ecosystems with restricted geographic range eg coral reefs and the Arctic and its indigenous peoples) and extreme weather events At 2degC there are high to very high risks across all the Reasons for Concern

Source IPCC Special report on Global Warming of 15 degrees Celsius Summary for Policy Makers

A wide range of adaptation options are available to reduce the risks to ecosystems but at 2degC adaptation is expected to be more challenging for ecosystems food and health systems than for 15degC Even at 15degC vulnerable regions such as small islands are projected to face multiple and interrelated climate risks

6

The message to be taken from the IPCC report is thus that to limit the worst impacts of climate change on ecosystems and humans significantly more ambitious action is needed from all levels of government the private sector and civil society

THE PARIS AGREEMENT AND ITS AMBITION MECHANISM The Paris Agreementrsquos central goal is to limit global temperature rise to well below 2degC above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit still further to 15degC

The agreement also aims to strengthen the ability of countries to deal with the impacts of climate change NDCs represent the contribution of each Party towards meeting the goals of the Agreement Developed country Parties are asked to take the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets Developing country Parties are encouraged over time to move towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets

The Paris Agreement was adopted by Decision 1CP21 This Decision emphasises the urgent need to address the gap between the emissions which would result from the aggregate pledges of the Parties and the emissions needed to hold the temperature to well below 2degC In recognising this gap it also emphasises the urgency of implementing the Kyoto Protocol to enhance pre-2020 ambition Measures set out in the Decision to enhance action pre-2020 include strengthening the technical examination process enhancement of the provision of urgent finance technology and support and measures to strengthen high-level engagement

The Paris Agreement established a five-year cycle for communication of the NDCs with increasing ambition in each subsequent NDC Submitted NDCs have different timeframes for their commitments some have 2025 timeframes others 2030 Decision 1CP21 encourages countries with a 2025 timescale to submit new NDCs by 2020 while those with 2030 timeframes are called upon to update their NDC by 2020 The Talanoa Dialogue which is the renamed facilitative dialogue from the Decision was launched in January 2018 to drive higher ambition in the NDCs submitted in 2020

For every five year cycle NDCs must be submitted at least 9 to 12 months in advance of the relevant Conference of Parties (COP) This is to allow time for the UNFCCC secretariat to synthesise the NDCs in a report As part of the five-year cycle there will also be a global stocktake on collective progress towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement - the first being in 2023 The outcomes from the stocktake will inform Parties in updating and enhancing their actions and support and enhance international cooperation The design of the global stocktake and the sources of information to be used are still being negotiated

In addition to the sufficiently ambitious NDCs all Parties should strive to formulate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies These should take into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in the light of different national circumstances They are invited to communicate these strategies to the UNFCCC secretariat by 2020 To date only a few countries have communicated these strategies

7

ACTION ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL ndash CASE STUDIES ON IMPROVING NDCS As WWF is present in about 100 different countries and works closely with national governments on developing national climate policies and strategies and implementing NDCs we have assembled this series of ten case studies to contribute to discussions and inspire further climate action and ambition at COP 24 and beyond

The case studies presented in this section describe the current commitments in NDCs2 in a selection of countries discuss the developments in those countries with regard to climate change action and include recommendations to increase ambition in those NDCs

2 Submitted NDCs can be viewed at httpswww4unfcccintsitesNDCStagingPagesAllaspx

8

BRAZIL CASE STUDY Description of NDC The Brazilian NDC set the goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37 below 2005 levels in 2025 As a subsequent indicative contribution Brazil intends to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43 below 2005 levels in 2030 Brazilrsquos NDC is economy wide and consistent with the long-term vision of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2degC above pre-industrial levels

In addition Brazilrsquos commitments included specific targets to increase the share of sustainable biofuels in the Brazilian energy mix to approximately 18 by 2030 by expand biofuel consumption increase ethanol supply strengthen policies and measures with a view to achieving zero illegal deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon by 2030 restore and reforest 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 restore an additional 15 million hectares of degraded pasturelands by 2030 and enhance 5 million hectares of integrated cropland-livestock-forestry systems by 2030 achieve 45 of renewables in the energy mix by 2030 including expanding the use of renewable energy sources other than hydropower in the total energy mix to between 28 and 33 by 2030 among other commitments

Regarding adaptation the Brazilian NDC commits to implementing policies and measures to adapt to climate change and contribute to building resilience of populations ecosystems infrastructure and production systems by reducing vulnerability and through the provision of ecosystem services The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) is one of the policies to be implemented

Photo copy Paulo de Abreu Shutterstockcom

9

Progress in implementation Over the last three years Brazilian society has made some advances in raising awareness about the strategy for implementation of the Brazilian NDC Several studies workshops and sectoral contributions were presented to guide government decisions on the Brazilian commitments to the Paris Agreement Among the studies we highlight a document from Brazilian Forum of Climate Change (FBMC acronym in Portuguese wwwfbmccombr ) ldquoShort-term Measures for Implementation of the Brazilian NDCrdquo3

In August 2018 the document was delivered to the President Michel Temer by the FBMC The president signed an act requesting the Forum to elaborate a position on the possibilities of reaching this long-term goal by 2060 This is the first time that Brazil has signaled this goal and the first step in Brazilrsquos positioning in relation to a long-term strategy for net-zero emissions

Other important documents are also ldquoIES-Brasil - Economic and Social Implications GHG Mitigation Scenarios 2030rdquo4 a scenario study that shows the economic and social benefits of NDC compliance and the additional benefits of increased ambition of mitigation targets (this study was supported by WWF-Brazil) and ldquoOptions for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation in Key Sectors of Brazilrdquo5 a study that estimates the potential and costs of GHG emission abatement through an integrated economic-energy analysis for the period between 2012 and 2050 in the different key sectors

Potential for increased ambition Systematically and annually reduce anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases for

the whole of Brazilrsquos economy by a maximum of 1 GtCO2e in 2030

Strengthen policies and measures to achieve the zero conversion of natural habitat of all biomes by 2030 and the reduction of deforestation rates of all biomes by 50 by 2020 and by 80 by 2025 in relation to the base year 2015

Restore and reforest 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 prioritizing the restoration of liabilities in permanent preservation areas (APPs)

Extend the scale of forest management systems in the Amazon to reach 20 million hectares by 2030 through georeferencing systems for forest production and traceability of their products with a view to discouraging illegal and unsustainable practices

3 httpsdrivegooglecomfiled1Z3f2vVILNx12ciZzTNGOE72qbQC4hcrdview

4httpwwwcentroclimacoppeufrjbrimagesNoticiasdocumentosies-brasil-20301_sumario-executivo-portuguespdf

5httpswwwmcticgovbrmcticopencmscienciaSEPEDclimaopcoes_mitigacaoOpcoes_de_Mitigacao_de_Emissoes_de_Gases_de_Efeito_Estufa_GEE_em_SetoresChave_do_Brasilhtml

10

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Brazil had Presidential elections in October 2018 It is unclear whether the new government that will take office on January 1st 2019 will maintain the same level of commitment to the NDC implementation as the previous government

Recommendations Brazil has the potential to increase ambition in the NDC Recommendations to achieve this include

Create a plan to discourage investments in new fossil fuel power plants Increase investment for non-hydro renewable sources aiming at the resilience and safety of the national electricity mix

Create instruments for the improvement of financing lines for microgeneration

Develop an efficient industrial policy to promote the competitiveness of non-hydro renewables

Expand biofuel and food production in degraded pasture areas

Accelerate implementation of the Forest Code ensuring public transparency and social control

Increase recovery of degraded pastures

Strengthen technical assistance to implement sustainable practices and improvement of productivity in livestock

11

CHILE CASE STUDY Description of NDC Chile has pledged unconditional conditional (on international financial support in the form of grants) and specific land-use and land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) targets Unconditionally Chile committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of GDP to 30 below 2007 levels by 2030 This target covers the energy industrial processes and waste sectors Climate Action Tracker (2018) estimates that this will lead to GHG emissions levels of 154 above 1990 and 42 above 2010 excluding LULUCF based on current GDP projections managed by the government6 The conditional target is a 35ndash45 reduction of GHG emission intensity of GDP below 2007 levels by 2030 which according to Climate Action Tracker is equivalent to 100ndash136 above 1990 levels and 12ndash24 above 2010 GHG emissions levels excluding LULUCF Regarding LULUCF Chile pledged to sustainably manage and recover 100000 hectares (ha) of forest by 2030 and to reforest 100000 ha subject to approval of new laws Chile is one of the few countries to separate the LULUCF sector target from other emissions which increases the transparency of its proposed actions On adaptation Chile pledged to develop sectoral adaptation plans to establish specific measures and mechanisms to measure progress

Progress in implementation Since COP21 the Chilean Government has made significant progress in elaborating national plans for mitigation in the energy sector and for adaptation following a sector-specific approach including forestry and agriculture infrastructure biodiversity fisheries health and cities Moreover under the Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) initiative supported by the World 6 httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieschile

12

Bank Chile has been analysing carbon pricing options since 2015 Although the current carbon tax remains ineffective in terms of mitigation outcomes (US$5tCO2) institutional capacity was built for monitoring and reporting for the largest CO2 emissions sources at the national level In 2017 Chile issued a National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) which includes the first national-level Emissions Reduction Programme that targets reductions in the rates of land and forest degradation and also increasing forest carbon capture through reforestation It is expected that over a period of 9 years improvements in AFOLU-related policies and in management programs would contribute significantly towards Chileacutes NDC while accessing results-based-payments in the carbon market7 However a mega fire outbreak in early 2017 affecting 600000 ha of forest plantations grasslands and native forests demonstrated the vulnerability of land - both encompassed by this Programme and beyond it - to climate change

The frequency and extent of fires in the Centre and South of Chile is the greatest factor of uncertainty and could be determinant in shaping Chileacutes future GHG emissions trajectory Before 2017 the AFOLU sector was a net absorber of emissions mostly associated to the expansion of forest plantations and played a significant role in reducing the overall net balance of emissions However excluding AFOLU since 1990 net national emissions steadily rose due to increasing rate of burning of fossil fuels (IPCC energy sector) This overall trend continues today

Potential for increased ambition In the run-up to a revised NDC in 2020 the greatest potential for increased ambition lies in GHG mitigation in the energy generation sector Chiles geography political stability robust economy and energy market conditions create an exceptional environment to accelerate the transition to a low emissions economy Nevertheless this will require phase-out of coal capacity before it reaches end-of-life Coal reached 53 of installed capacity in May 20188 versus 18 of current renewable capacity In early 2018 Chile announced that it will not build any new coal-fired power plants (without CCS) and will develop a plan to phase out coal as coal-fired power permitting has stalled in recent years due to the comparatively low costs of renewable energy Current solar PV and onshore wind costs in Chile are as low as US$ 003kWh to US$ 004kWh9 However under business as usual (BAU) conditions the fact that a significant portion of coal plants have been built in recent years means that projections are for a 19 share for coal in electricity generation in 2050 This share would need to be close to zero to make Chileacutes energy sector compatible to 15degC10 Chiles Ministry of Energy is leading a roundtable to analyse the best options for the decommissioning or reconversion of coal-plant capacity but there is still the need for strong political will corporate leadership and citizen engagement to ensure that Chile can include coal-phase out as a key measure for increased NDC ambition in 2020

The National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) launched in 2017 provides a solid foundation to scale-up and integrate other land-based and nature-based mitigation and adaptation solutions particularly through forest landscape restoration This is an opportunity to reduce the severity of extensive fires Work through this strategy to increase landscape resilience will help ensure baseline conditions are maintained and take advantage of the opportunity to capture mitigation and reduced land vulnerability (adaptation) In this context a national forest restoration plan with the goal of restoring up to 1M ha coupled with watershed management measures and scaled-up plans for biodiversity protection (such as those proposed under the National Adaptation Plan for Biodiversity) would show clear signs of Chilersquos commitment Mitigation in LULUCF is still a low hanging fruit for increased NDC mitigation ambition that addresses further social and environmental needs for adaptation and sustainable development while opening the opportunity to integrate ecosystem protection for future generations

7 httpwwwconafclcmseditorwebENCCRVNota-Informativa-24pdf 8 httpgeneradorascldocumentosboletinesboletin-mercado-electrico-sector-generacion-junio-2018

9 httpswwwirenaorgpublications2018JanRenewable-power-generation-costs-in-2017

10 Climate Tracker 2018

13

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Chilersquos 2050 Energy Policy (PE2050) aims for renewable targets of at least 60 by 2035 and 70 by 2050 for electricity generation Recently the Energy Route 2018-2022 the Mitigation Plan for the Energy Sector and the Electromobility Strategy stand out as complementary policies that together should foster increased energy efficiency scaling-up small distributed energy and introducing 100 electric public transport and 40 electric private vehicle fleet by 2050 These developments represent strong signals for change however there is still the need to determine how the government will deploy measures improve enabling conditions for the private sector and ensure a participatory approach with citizens particularly in the cases where local impact is expected Furthermore there is an urgent need to accelerate adaptation response across the territory While adaptation sectoral plans are being developed at the national level it is crucial to move forward in implementation plans with strong local and regional participation

Recommendations For Chile to increase its NDC ambition it should

Include the mitigation resulting from a national agreement and plan to phase out coal-fired generation in the NDC in 2020 The government companies and local community representatives should continue working on transparent criteria to determine the timelines support and measures involved in the decommissioning of each unit

By 2020 improve the design and expand the scope of the current carbon tax to include other highly emitting sectors Establishing a gradually rising carbon price will provide more certainty to investors that play a key role in scaling up the implementation of climate-compatible projects

For successful coal phase-out the NDC should include a commitment to work with the private sector and civil society to ensure enabling policy conditions for renewable energy capacity to replace coal-fired capacity by building a reliable efficient inclusive sustainable and secure system

The NDC can also include at least a portion of mitigation results expected by 2030 through the implementation of the Electromobility Plan launched in 2018 Including electromobility in Chileacutes NDC will reflect institutional commitment on this matter which in turn will better position this emerging market in the map of investors

Introduce a significantly stronger target for forest landscape restoration (up to 1M ha) that accelerates national action and accesses international support to reduce the exposure to water scarcity and conditions leading to fires which peak LULUCF emissions (as in 2016-17) Moreover a commitment to develop land-based (including nature-based) adaptation measures is increasingly critical to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience across the country

Support increased NDC ambition in 2020 by pooling mitigation potentials by 2030 from coal phase out the expansion of renewable energy utility and distributed capacity and progress in electromobility While fires are becoming a great factor of uncertainty it is still possible and necessary to increase LULUCFAFOLU mitigation ambition Chile is already piloting results-based-payments and further reforestation and reducing land and forest degradation are critical to reduce vulnerability strengthen resilience and adaptation while also protecting essential ecosystem services biodiversity and to incentivise decentralised sustainable development

14

CHINA CASE STUDY Description of NDC China submitted its NDC to the UNFCCC in June 2015 It covers targets policies and implementation measures for both mitigation and adaptation

The key targets of the NDC to be achieved around or by 2030 are summarized as follows a) to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and make best efforts to peak earlier than that b) to lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65 from the 2005 level c) to increase the share of non-fossil fuels11 in primary energy consumption to around 20 and d) to increase the forest stock volume by around 45 billion cubic meters compared to 2005

To achieve this a series of policies and measures were proposed including for energy system industry buildings transportation and carbon sinks

As for adaptation China proposed to ldquoproactively adapt to climate change by enhancing mechanisms and capacities to effectively defend against climate change risks in key areasrdquo and to ldquoprogressively strengthen early warning and emergency response systems and disaster prevention and reduction mechanismsrdquo covering various sectors including agriculture forestry and water resources as well as in cities coastal and ecologically vulnerable areas

Progress in implementation Chinarsquos 2020 target to reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45 was reached already in 2017 and the target for forest stock volume was also over-fulfilled With Chinarsquos renewable energy industry boom the proportion of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption increased to 138 by

11 Non-fossil fuels here mean renewables and nuclear energy

Photo copy

ArtisticP

hoto Shutterstockcom

z

15

2017 These achievements also give China a solid foundation to reach its 2030 targets before that date

Coal consumption control and the transition from coal to non-fossil fuels might be the most important drivers for Chinarsquos progress While coal remains the dominant fuel in China the percentage of coal in total energy consumption decreased from 724 in 2005 to 604 in 2017 In contrast Chinarsquos renewable energy sector is booming According to REN21 China ranks as the worldrsquos leader in total renewables capacity and also in solar PV wind and geothermal heating capacity and investment in renewables capacity12 By the end of 2017 Chinarsquos total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 650GW with massive growth in wind and solar power especially It is estimated that Chinarsquos proportion of non-fossil energy sources will reach and surpass 15 by 2020

The policies issued and the actions implemented by Chinese government and other stakeholders will ensure a full fulfillment of the commitment that Chinese government has pledged to the international society Most prominently Chinarsquos international pledges and national targets are backed up by national strategies policies and detailed implementation measures with transparency and accountability mechanism

Potential for increased ambition According to a survey done by the China Carbon Forum 87 of respondents expect China to achieve the carbon emissions peak by 2030 the latest and 48 even expect it by 2025 or earlier13 Most of the research revealed that China could peak earlier than or well before 2030 and one study shows that Chinarsquos carbon emissions are likely to peak between 2020 and 202214 Given its economic restructuring potential China could achieve an emissions peak around 2023 with efforts in energy efficiency lowering the CO2 intensity in Chinarsquos GDP by just over 71 by 2030 compared to 2005 thus exceeding the NDC target of 60-6515

The transition trend from coal to renewables and other low carbon energy sources might be a great driver for China to overachieve its 2030 targets A new study released by the China National Renewable Energy Centre reveals that it is possible and beneficial for Chinarsquos fossil fuel use to peak in 2020 and decline steadily towards 203516 According to a 2015 WWF report around 84 of Chinarsquos electricity generation can be met with renewable sources by mid-century and the number is expected to be 49 in 203017

Given the above progress and scenario analyses we believe China has the potential to improve its NDC in terms of the peaking timeline share of non-fossil fuel in the primary energy consumption and carbon intensity targets showing more leadership as a torchbearer in global climate governance There is also reason to expect China to soon propose a long-term strategy for 2050 under the 15degC and 2degC scenarios

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Chinese government has shown strong political will on environmental protection in recent years through emphasizing the concept of ldquoecological civilizationrdquo Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China the environment has risen to an unprecedented status

12 REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report

13 China Carbon Forum 2018 ldquo2018 China Carbon Pricing Surveyrdquo

14 Chinadialogue 5 June 2018 ldquoRoundtable Is China still on track to reach its Paris targetsrdquo httpswwwchinadialoguenetarticleshowsingleen10653-Roundtable-Is-China-still-on-track-to-reach-its-Paris-targets- 15 Qilin Liu Qi Lei Huiming Xu etal ldquoChinarsquos energy revolution strategy into 2030rdquo in Resources Conservation and Recycling 2018 128 78-89

16 China National Renewable Energy Center 2018 ldquoChina Renewable Energy Outlook 2018rdquo

17 WWF 2015 ldquoChinarsquos Future Generation 20rdquo httpsd2ouvy59p0dg6kcloudfrontnetdownloadschina_s_future_generation_2_0_reportpdf

16

in the national development agenda The main driving force for environmental protection is the need for sustainable development including the need to fight air pollution

While US President Donald Trump has announced that the US will be pulling out of the Paris Agreement the China government has several times reaffirmed its commitment to the Agreement and the countryrsquos targets However it should also be noted that international trade tension between China and the US and the domestic challenges of slower economic growth arising from that have resulted in some conservative arguments against ambitious climate action in China18

Recommendations For China to reach its sustainable development ambition and goal of becoming an ldquoecological civilizationrdquo by mid-century and when considering the need for urgent and ambitious climate actions to avoid global warming over 15degC it should take the following actions

Revise its climate targets and commitments under the Paris Agreement by 2020 by

Bringing the timeline for emissions peaking to around 2022

Proposing a carbon emission reduction pathway for the period after the peaking to be in line with the Paris Agreementrsquos 15-2degC target

Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy to achieve a higher share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030

Accelerate its energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by

Strengthening coal consumption control halting new coal power and eliminating inefficient capacity

Reducing dispersed coal burning through efficiency improvement reduction and clean energy replacement

Accelerating power sector reform to create an environment for promoting large-scale and distributed deployment of renewable energy

Enhance international cooperation to take more leadership in addressing global climate change by

Supporting other developing countries to improve their capacity to achieving their climate targets through south-south cooperation on climate change

Shifting Chinarsquos oversea energy investments from coal to renewables to accelerate the pace and scale of the worldrsquos transition to a sustainable model of energy and development

18 Li Shuo 28 October 2018 ldquoDoes China Still Want to Be a Global Environmental Leaderrdquo httpsthediplomatcom201810does-china-still-want-to-be-a-global-environmental-leader

17

EUROPEAN UNION CASE STUDY Description of NDC The EU NDC purely focuses on mitigation outlining the agreed EU domestic emissions reduction target the implementation process and a narrative on why the EU believes its NDC is fair and ambitious This submission covers the collective contribution of the EU and the 28 Member States

The commitment is for the EU and the Member States to achieve an unconditional economy-wide ldquobinding target of an at least 40 domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990rdquo on 100 of emissions to be achieved domestically without the use of international credits19 The commitment period for the target is from January 1st 2021 (the EUrsquos second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol ends on December 31st 2020) to December 31st 2030 Additional legislation was created to facilitate the achievement of this goal including on LULUCF energy and transport The NDC holds no concrete information on any non-mitigation elements eg adaptation climate finance loss amp damage Complementing its NDC is the European Commission Communication lsquoThe Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 202020 which briefly discusses basic elements on several issues including climate finance adaptation and mitigation cycles

Progress in implementation The EUrsquos 2030 climate and energy framework21 -politically agreed in October 2014- forms the basis of its NDC The various pieces of legislation that pursue the attainment of the NDC target were agreed between 2016 and 2018 by EU Member States and European Parliament Of note based on the EUrsquos own calculations new legislative targets on renewable energy uptake and 19 European Commission (2015) Environment Council approves the EUs intended nationally determined contribution to the new global climate agreement Available at httpseceuropaeuclimanewsarticlesnews_2015030601_en 20 European Commission 2015 The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 httpeceuropaeutransparencyregdocrep12015EN1-2015-81-EN-F1-1PDF

21 European Commission 2014 European Council Conclusions httpwwwconsiliumeuropaeuuedocscms_datadocspressdataenec145397pdf

Photo copy

Hung C

hung Chih Shutterstockcom

z

18

energy efficiency measures mean that the EUrsquos emissions (if all Member States achieve these targets) will be reduced by 4522 by 2030 However this higher target is by no means in line with achieving 15degC or with becoming a net-zero economy well-before mid-century23 let alone the EUrsquos equitable fair-share

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Paris Agreement marked a significant shift in global ambition on climate change and committed EU Member States and other UNFCCC parties to keeping average global temperature rise lsquowell belowrsquo 2degC and to pursuing efforts to limit it to 15degC

A few options exist that can be used to create the impetus for a revised higher level of EU ambition in 2030 The EU justifies its insufficient NDC by quoting various IPCC assessment reports Following this logic the EU should now begin using the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC as the basis for all of its actions Moreover while the Paris Agreement has been agreed the rules governing it are yet to be agreed so ensuring a strong and successful completion of these rules may help to reignite the debate on increased EU ambition In October 2018 the EUrsquos position for COP24 states that the EU will ldquocommunicate or update its NDC by 2020 taking into account the collective further efforts needed and actions undertaken by all Parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreementrdquo24 In this same position the EU highlighted the importance of the Global Stocktake in 2023 for enhancing climate action by acknowledging the Paris Agreementrsquos wider ambition cycle To round out this list of options the European Parliament recently voted to show support for an EU emissions reduction target of 55 by 203025

Typically for any ambition increase to occur all EU Heads of State and Government need to politically guide a target increase The next appropriate moment to discuss an increase is when they examine a new long-term climate and energy target and strategy for the EU which will most likely take place May 2019 This meeting would be an opportune moment for EU Member States to examine their own long-term targets thereby contributing information that would allow the bloc as a whole to explore what prospects there are for an even more ambitious NDC target in line with a new EU long-term target However no clear signal from all EU Member States has been sent that they would support such a revision of the EU NDC target Moreover the legislative right to initiate a revision lies with the European Commission a change in its cabinet is foreseen after the European Parliament elections (052019) the implications of which will only be known after it happens

Another track that can be used to pursue higher ambition is at the EU Member States level All EU Member States must develop and submit final national climate and energy plans (NECPS) by the end of 2019 outlining how a Member State will achieve their share of the EU 2030 targets With these plans Member States also have the opportunity to highlight measures that allow their domestic emissions reductions to go beyond the minimal action required to fulfil their share of the EU targets eg coal-phase out ahead of 2030 permanent cancellation of ETS allowances or higher rates of deployment of sustainable technologies ie renewable energy energy efficiency

Indeed a few EU Member States have called for increased EU ambition26 while other EU Member States have called for the EU to focus on implementing existing EU policies before looking to

22 European Commission (2018) Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Cantildeete at the High Level Stakeholder Conference The EUs Vision of a modern clean and competitive economy Available at httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_SPEECH-18-4447_enhtm 23 Climate Action Tracker (2018) EU Available at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieseu 24 Consilium (2018) Climate change Council adopts conclusions for COP24 Council of the EU Available here httpswwwconsiliumeuropaeuenpresspress-releases20181009climate-change-council-adopts-conclusions

25 European Parliament (2018) COP24 Resolution Available at httpwwweuroparleuropaeunewsenpress-room20181018IPR16550paris-agreement-meps-call-for-stepping-up-eu-climate-commitments 26 Bureau Woordvoering Kabinetsformatie (2018) Coalition agreement Trust in the future [Kingdom of the Netherlands Cabinet Coalition government] Available at httpswwwkabinetsformatie2017nldocumentenpublicaties20171010regeerakkoord-vertrouwen-in-de-toekomst_sp=97c0f122-98ad-4998-91f4-dc49cdd03a6c1507635788124

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

6

The message to be taken from the IPCC report is thus that to limit the worst impacts of climate change on ecosystems and humans significantly more ambitious action is needed from all levels of government the private sector and civil society

THE PARIS AGREEMENT AND ITS AMBITION MECHANISM The Paris Agreementrsquos central goal is to limit global temperature rise to well below 2degC above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit still further to 15degC

The agreement also aims to strengthen the ability of countries to deal with the impacts of climate change NDCs represent the contribution of each Party towards meeting the goals of the Agreement Developed country Parties are asked to take the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets Developing country Parties are encouraged over time to move towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets

The Paris Agreement was adopted by Decision 1CP21 This Decision emphasises the urgent need to address the gap between the emissions which would result from the aggregate pledges of the Parties and the emissions needed to hold the temperature to well below 2degC In recognising this gap it also emphasises the urgency of implementing the Kyoto Protocol to enhance pre-2020 ambition Measures set out in the Decision to enhance action pre-2020 include strengthening the technical examination process enhancement of the provision of urgent finance technology and support and measures to strengthen high-level engagement

The Paris Agreement established a five-year cycle for communication of the NDCs with increasing ambition in each subsequent NDC Submitted NDCs have different timeframes for their commitments some have 2025 timeframes others 2030 Decision 1CP21 encourages countries with a 2025 timescale to submit new NDCs by 2020 while those with 2030 timeframes are called upon to update their NDC by 2020 The Talanoa Dialogue which is the renamed facilitative dialogue from the Decision was launched in January 2018 to drive higher ambition in the NDCs submitted in 2020

For every five year cycle NDCs must be submitted at least 9 to 12 months in advance of the relevant Conference of Parties (COP) This is to allow time for the UNFCCC secretariat to synthesise the NDCs in a report As part of the five-year cycle there will also be a global stocktake on collective progress towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement - the first being in 2023 The outcomes from the stocktake will inform Parties in updating and enhancing their actions and support and enhance international cooperation The design of the global stocktake and the sources of information to be used are still being negotiated

In addition to the sufficiently ambitious NDCs all Parties should strive to formulate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies These should take into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in the light of different national circumstances They are invited to communicate these strategies to the UNFCCC secretariat by 2020 To date only a few countries have communicated these strategies

7

ACTION ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL ndash CASE STUDIES ON IMPROVING NDCS As WWF is present in about 100 different countries and works closely with national governments on developing national climate policies and strategies and implementing NDCs we have assembled this series of ten case studies to contribute to discussions and inspire further climate action and ambition at COP 24 and beyond

The case studies presented in this section describe the current commitments in NDCs2 in a selection of countries discuss the developments in those countries with regard to climate change action and include recommendations to increase ambition in those NDCs

2 Submitted NDCs can be viewed at httpswww4unfcccintsitesNDCStagingPagesAllaspx

8

BRAZIL CASE STUDY Description of NDC The Brazilian NDC set the goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37 below 2005 levels in 2025 As a subsequent indicative contribution Brazil intends to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43 below 2005 levels in 2030 Brazilrsquos NDC is economy wide and consistent with the long-term vision of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2degC above pre-industrial levels

In addition Brazilrsquos commitments included specific targets to increase the share of sustainable biofuels in the Brazilian energy mix to approximately 18 by 2030 by expand biofuel consumption increase ethanol supply strengthen policies and measures with a view to achieving zero illegal deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon by 2030 restore and reforest 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 restore an additional 15 million hectares of degraded pasturelands by 2030 and enhance 5 million hectares of integrated cropland-livestock-forestry systems by 2030 achieve 45 of renewables in the energy mix by 2030 including expanding the use of renewable energy sources other than hydropower in the total energy mix to between 28 and 33 by 2030 among other commitments

Regarding adaptation the Brazilian NDC commits to implementing policies and measures to adapt to climate change and contribute to building resilience of populations ecosystems infrastructure and production systems by reducing vulnerability and through the provision of ecosystem services The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) is one of the policies to be implemented

Photo copy Paulo de Abreu Shutterstockcom

9

Progress in implementation Over the last three years Brazilian society has made some advances in raising awareness about the strategy for implementation of the Brazilian NDC Several studies workshops and sectoral contributions were presented to guide government decisions on the Brazilian commitments to the Paris Agreement Among the studies we highlight a document from Brazilian Forum of Climate Change (FBMC acronym in Portuguese wwwfbmccombr ) ldquoShort-term Measures for Implementation of the Brazilian NDCrdquo3

In August 2018 the document was delivered to the President Michel Temer by the FBMC The president signed an act requesting the Forum to elaborate a position on the possibilities of reaching this long-term goal by 2060 This is the first time that Brazil has signaled this goal and the first step in Brazilrsquos positioning in relation to a long-term strategy for net-zero emissions

Other important documents are also ldquoIES-Brasil - Economic and Social Implications GHG Mitigation Scenarios 2030rdquo4 a scenario study that shows the economic and social benefits of NDC compliance and the additional benefits of increased ambition of mitigation targets (this study was supported by WWF-Brazil) and ldquoOptions for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation in Key Sectors of Brazilrdquo5 a study that estimates the potential and costs of GHG emission abatement through an integrated economic-energy analysis for the period between 2012 and 2050 in the different key sectors

Potential for increased ambition Systematically and annually reduce anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases for

the whole of Brazilrsquos economy by a maximum of 1 GtCO2e in 2030

Strengthen policies and measures to achieve the zero conversion of natural habitat of all biomes by 2030 and the reduction of deforestation rates of all biomes by 50 by 2020 and by 80 by 2025 in relation to the base year 2015

Restore and reforest 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 prioritizing the restoration of liabilities in permanent preservation areas (APPs)

Extend the scale of forest management systems in the Amazon to reach 20 million hectares by 2030 through georeferencing systems for forest production and traceability of their products with a view to discouraging illegal and unsustainable practices

3 httpsdrivegooglecomfiled1Z3f2vVILNx12ciZzTNGOE72qbQC4hcrdview

4httpwwwcentroclimacoppeufrjbrimagesNoticiasdocumentosies-brasil-20301_sumario-executivo-portuguespdf

5httpswwwmcticgovbrmcticopencmscienciaSEPEDclimaopcoes_mitigacaoOpcoes_de_Mitigacao_de_Emissoes_de_Gases_de_Efeito_Estufa_GEE_em_SetoresChave_do_Brasilhtml

10

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Brazil had Presidential elections in October 2018 It is unclear whether the new government that will take office on January 1st 2019 will maintain the same level of commitment to the NDC implementation as the previous government

Recommendations Brazil has the potential to increase ambition in the NDC Recommendations to achieve this include

Create a plan to discourage investments in new fossil fuel power plants Increase investment for non-hydro renewable sources aiming at the resilience and safety of the national electricity mix

Create instruments for the improvement of financing lines for microgeneration

Develop an efficient industrial policy to promote the competitiveness of non-hydro renewables

Expand biofuel and food production in degraded pasture areas

Accelerate implementation of the Forest Code ensuring public transparency and social control

Increase recovery of degraded pastures

Strengthen technical assistance to implement sustainable practices and improvement of productivity in livestock

11

CHILE CASE STUDY Description of NDC Chile has pledged unconditional conditional (on international financial support in the form of grants) and specific land-use and land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) targets Unconditionally Chile committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of GDP to 30 below 2007 levels by 2030 This target covers the energy industrial processes and waste sectors Climate Action Tracker (2018) estimates that this will lead to GHG emissions levels of 154 above 1990 and 42 above 2010 excluding LULUCF based on current GDP projections managed by the government6 The conditional target is a 35ndash45 reduction of GHG emission intensity of GDP below 2007 levels by 2030 which according to Climate Action Tracker is equivalent to 100ndash136 above 1990 levels and 12ndash24 above 2010 GHG emissions levels excluding LULUCF Regarding LULUCF Chile pledged to sustainably manage and recover 100000 hectares (ha) of forest by 2030 and to reforest 100000 ha subject to approval of new laws Chile is one of the few countries to separate the LULUCF sector target from other emissions which increases the transparency of its proposed actions On adaptation Chile pledged to develop sectoral adaptation plans to establish specific measures and mechanisms to measure progress

Progress in implementation Since COP21 the Chilean Government has made significant progress in elaborating national plans for mitigation in the energy sector and for adaptation following a sector-specific approach including forestry and agriculture infrastructure biodiversity fisheries health and cities Moreover under the Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) initiative supported by the World 6 httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieschile

12

Bank Chile has been analysing carbon pricing options since 2015 Although the current carbon tax remains ineffective in terms of mitigation outcomes (US$5tCO2) institutional capacity was built for monitoring and reporting for the largest CO2 emissions sources at the national level In 2017 Chile issued a National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) which includes the first national-level Emissions Reduction Programme that targets reductions in the rates of land and forest degradation and also increasing forest carbon capture through reforestation It is expected that over a period of 9 years improvements in AFOLU-related policies and in management programs would contribute significantly towards Chileacutes NDC while accessing results-based-payments in the carbon market7 However a mega fire outbreak in early 2017 affecting 600000 ha of forest plantations grasslands and native forests demonstrated the vulnerability of land - both encompassed by this Programme and beyond it - to climate change

The frequency and extent of fires in the Centre and South of Chile is the greatest factor of uncertainty and could be determinant in shaping Chileacutes future GHG emissions trajectory Before 2017 the AFOLU sector was a net absorber of emissions mostly associated to the expansion of forest plantations and played a significant role in reducing the overall net balance of emissions However excluding AFOLU since 1990 net national emissions steadily rose due to increasing rate of burning of fossil fuels (IPCC energy sector) This overall trend continues today

Potential for increased ambition In the run-up to a revised NDC in 2020 the greatest potential for increased ambition lies in GHG mitigation in the energy generation sector Chiles geography political stability robust economy and energy market conditions create an exceptional environment to accelerate the transition to a low emissions economy Nevertheless this will require phase-out of coal capacity before it reaches end-of-life Coal reached 53 of installed capacity in May 20188 versus 18 of current renewable capacity In early 2018 Chile announced that it will not build any new coal-fired power plants (without CCS) and will develop a plan to phase out coal as coal-fired power permitting has stalled in recent years due to the comparatively low costs of renewable energy Current solar PV and onshore wind costs in Chile are as low as US$ 003kWh to US$ 004kWh9 However under business as usual (BAU) conditions the fact that a significant portion of coal plants have been built in recent years means that projections are for a 19 share for coal in electricity generation in 2050 This share would need to be close to zero to make Chileacutes energy sector compatible to 15degC10 Chiles Ministry of Energy is leading a roundtable to analyse the best options for the decommissioning or reconversion of coal-plant capacity but there is still the need for strong political will corporate leadership and citizen engagement to ensure that Chile can include coal-phase out as a key measure for increased NDC ambition in 2020

The National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) launched in 2017 provides a solid foundation to scale-up and integrate other land-based and nature-based mitigation and adaptation solutions particularly through forest landscape restoration This is an opportunity to reduce the severity of extensive fires Work through this strategy to increase landscape resilience will help ensure baseline conditions are maintained and take advantage of the opportunity to capture mitigation and reduced land vulnerability (adaptation) In this context a national forest restoration plan with the goal of restoring up to 1M ha coupled with watershed management measures and scaled-up plans for biodiversity protection (such as those proposed under the National Adaptation Plan for Biodiversity) would show clear signs of Chilersquos commitment Mitigation in LULUCF is still a low hanging fruit for increased NDC mitigation ambition that addresses further social and environmental needs for adaptation and sustainable development while opening the opportunity to integrate ecosystem protection for future generations

7 httpwwwconafclcmseditorwebENCCRVNota-Informativa-24pdf 8 httpgeneradorascldocumentosboletinesboletin-mercado-electrico-sector-generacion-junio-2018

9 httpswwwirenaorgpublications2018JanRenewable-power-generation-costs-in-2017

10 Climate Tracker 2018

13

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Chilersquos 2050 Energy Policy (PE2050) aims for renewable targets of at least 60 by 2035 and 70 by 2050 for electricity generation Recently the Energy Route 2018-2022 the Mitigation Plan for the Energy Sector and the Electromobility Strategy stand out as complementary policies that together should foster increased energy efficiency scaling-up small distributed energy and introducing 100 electric public transport and 40 electric private vehicle fleet by 2050 These developments represent strong signals for change however there is still the need to determine how the government will deploy measures improve enabling conditions for the private sector and ensure a participatory approach with citizens particularly in the cases where local impact is expected Furthermore there is an urgent need to accelerate adaptation response across the territory While adaptation sectoral plans are being developed at the national level it is crucial to move forward in implementation plans with strong local and regional participation

Recommendations For Chile to increase its NDC ambition it should

Include the mitigation resulting from a national agreement and plan to phase out coal-fired generation in the NDC in 2020 The government companies and local community representatives should continue working on transparent criteria to determine the timelines support and measures involved in the decommissioning of each unit

By 2020 improve the design and expand the scope of the current carbon tax to include other highly emitting sectors Establishing a gradually rising carbon price will provide more certainty to investors that play a key role in scaling up the implementation of climate-compatible projects

For successful coal phase-out the NDC should include a commitment to work with the private sector and civil society to ensure enabling policy conditions for renewable energy capacity to replace coal-fired capacity by building a reliable efficient inclusive sustainable and secure system

The NDC can also include at least a portion of mitigation results expected by 2030 through the implementation of the Electromobility Plan launched in 2018 Including electromobility in Chileacutes NDC will reflect institutional commitment on this matter which in turn will better position this emerging market in the map of investors

Introduce a significantly stronger target for forest landscape restoration (up to 1M ha) that accelerates national action and accesses international support to reduce the exposure to water scarcity and conditions leading to fires which peak LULUCF emissions (as in 2016-17) Moreover a commitment to develop land-based (including nature-based) adaptation measures is increasingly critical to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience across the country

Support increased NDC ambition in 2020 by pooling mitigation potentials by 2030 from coal phase out the expansion of renewable energy utility and distributed capacity and progress in electromobility While fires are becoming a great factor of uncertainty it is still possible and necessary to increase LULUCFAFOLU mitigation ambition Chile is already piloting results-based-payments and further reforestation and reducing land and forest degradation are critical to reduce vulnerability strengthen resilience and adaptation while also protecting essential ecosystem services biodiversity and to incentivise decentralised sustainable development

14

CHINA CASE STUDY Description of NDC China submitted its NDC to the UNFCCC in June 2015 It covers targets policies and implementation measures for both mitigation and adaptation

The key targets of the NDC to be achieved around or by 2030 are summarized as follows a) to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and make best efforts to peak earlier than that b) to lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65 from the 2005 level c) to increase the share of non-fossil fuels11 in primary energy consumption to around 20 and d) to increase the forest stock volume by around 45 billion cubic meters compared to 2005

To achieve this a series of policies and measures were proposed including for energy system industry buildings transportation and carbon sinks

As for adaptation China proposed to ldquoproactively adapt to climate change by enhancing mechanisms and capacities to effectively defend against climate change risks in key areasrdquo and to ldquoprogressively strengthen early warning and emergency response systems and disaster prevention and reduction mechanismsrdquo covering various sectors including agriculture forestry and water resources as well as in cities coastal and ecologically vulnerable areas

Progress in implementation Chinarsquos 2020 target to reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45 was reached already in 2017 and the target for forest stock volume was also over-fulfilled With Chinarsquos renewable energy industry boom the proportion of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption increased to 138 by

11 Non-fossil fuels here mean renewables and nuclear energy

Photo copy

ArtisticP

hoto Shutterstockcom

z

15

2017 These achievements also give China a solid foundation to reach its 2030 targets before that date

Coal consumption control and the transition from coal to non-fossil fuels might be the most important drivers for Chinarsquos progress While coal remains the dominant fuel in China the percentage of coal in total energy consumption decreased from 724 in 2005 to 604 in 2017 In contrast Chinarsquos renewable energy sector is booming According to REN21 China ranks as the worldrsquos leader in total renewables capacity and also in solar PV wind and geothermal heating capacity and investment in renewables capacity12 By the end of 2017 Chinarsquos total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 650GW with massive growth in wind and solar power especially It is estimated that Chinarsquos proportion of non-fossil energy sources will reach and surpass 15 by 2020

The policies issued and the actions implemented by Chinese government and other stakeholders will ensure a full fulfillment of the commitment that Chinese government has pledged to the international society Most prominently Chinarsquos international pledges and national targets are backed up by national strategies policies and detailed implementation measures with transparency and accountability mechanism

Potential for increased ambition According to a survey done by the China Carbon Forum 87 of respondents expect China to achieve the carbon emissions peak by 2030 the latest and 48 even expect it by 2025 or earlier13 Most of the research revealed that China could peak earlier than or well before 2030 and one study shows that Chinarsquos carbon emissions are likely to peak between 2020 and 202214 Given its economic restructuring potential China could achieve an emissions peak around 2023 with efforts in energy efficiency lowering the CO2 intensity in Chinarsquos GDP by just over 71 by 2030 compared to 2005 thus exceeding the NDC target of 60-6515

The transition trend from coal to renewables and other low carbon energy sources might be a great driver for China to overachieve its 2030 targets A new study released by the China National Renewable Energy Centre reveals that it is possible and beneficial for Chinarsquos fossil fuel use to peak in 2020 and decline steadily towards 203516 According to a 2015 WWF report around 84 of Chinarsquos electricity generation can be met with renewable sources by mid-century and the number is expected to be 49 in 203017

Given the above progress and scenario analyses we believe China has the potential to improve its NDC in terms of the peaking timeline share of non-fossil fuel in the primary energy consumption and carbon intensity targets showing more leadership as a torchbearer in global climate governance There is also reason to expect China to soon propose a long-term strategy for 2050 under the 15degC and 2degC scenarios

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Chinese government has shown strong political will on environmental protection in recent years through emphasizing the concept of ldquoecological civilizationrdquo Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China the environment has risen to an unprecedented status

12 REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report

13 China Carbon Forum 2018 ldquo2018 China Carbon Pricing Surveyrdquo

14 Chinadialogue 5 June 2018 ldquoRoundtable Is China still on track to reach its Paris targetsrdquo httpswwwchinadialoguenetarticleshowsingleen10653-Roundtable-Is-China-still-on-track-to-reach-its-Paris-targets- 15 Qilin Liu Qi Lei Huiming Xu etal ldquoChinarsquos energy revolution strategy into 2030rdquo in Resources Conservation and Recycling 2018 128 78-89

16 China National Renewable Energy Center 2018 ldquoChina Renewable Energy Outlook 2018rdquo

17 WWF 2015 ldquoChinarsquos Future Generation 20rdquo httpsd2ouvy59p0dg6kcloudfrontnetdownloadschina_s_future_generation_2_0_reportpdf

16

in the national development agenda The main driving force for environmental protection is the need for sustainable development including the need to fight air pollution

While US President Donald Trump has announced that the US will be pulling out of the Paris Agreement the China government has several times reaffirmed its commitment to the Agreement and the countryrsquos targets However it should also be noted that international trade tension between China and the US and the domestic challenges of slower economic growth arising from that have resulted in some conservative arguments against ambitious climate action in China18

Recommendations For China to reach its sustainable development ambition and goal of becoming an ldquoecological civilizationrdquo by mid-century and when considering the need for urgent and ambitious climate actions to avoid global warming over 15degC it should take the following actions

Revise its climate targets and commitments under the Paris Agreement by 2020 by

Bringing the timeline for emissions peaking to around 2022

Proposing a carbon emission reduction pathway for the period after the peaking to be in line with the Paris Agreementrsquos 15-2degC target

Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy to achieve a higher share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030

Accelerate its energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by

Strengthening coal consumption control halting new coal power and eliminating inefficient capacity

Reducing dispersed coal burning through efficiency improvement reduction and clean energy replacement

Accelerating power sector reform to create an environment for promoting large-scale and distributed deployment of renewable energy

Enhance international cooperation to take more leadership in addressing global climate change by

Supporting other developing countries to improve their capacity to achieving their climate targets through south-south cooperation on climate change

Shifting Chinarsquos oversea energy investments from coal to renewables to accelerate the pace and scale of the worldrsquos transition to a sustainable model of energy and development

18 Li Shuo 28 October 2018 ldquoDoes China Still Want to Be a Global Environmental Leaderrdquo httpsthediplomatcom201810does-china-still-want-to-be-a-global-environmental-leader

17

EUROPEAN UNION CASE STUDY Description of NDC The EU NDC purely focuses on mitigation outlining the agreed EU domestic emissions reduction target the implementation process and a narrative on why the EU believes its NDC is fair and ambitious This submission covers the collective contribution of the EU and the 28 Member States

The commitment is for the EU and the Member States to achieve an unconditional economy-wide ldquobinding target of an at least 40 domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990rdquo on 100 of emissions to be achieved domestically without the use of international credits19 The commitment period for the target is from January 1st 2021 (the EUrsquos second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol ends on December 31st 2020) to December 31st 2030 Additional legislation was created to facilitate the achievement of this goal including on LULUCF energy and transport The NDC holds no concrete information on any non-mitigation elements eg adaptation climate finance loss amp damage Complementing its NDC is the European Commission Communication lsquoThe Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 202020 which briefly discusses basic elements on several issues including climate finance adaptation and mitigation cycles

Progress in implementation The EUrsquos 2030 climate and energy framework21 -politically agreed in October 2014- forms the basis of its NDC The various pieces of legislation that pursue the attainment of the NDC target were agreed between 2016 and 2018 by EU Member States and European Parliament Of note based on the EUrsquos own calculations new legislative targets on renewable energy uptake and 19 European Commission (2015) Environment Council approves the EUs intended nationally determined contribution to the new global climate agreement Available at httpseceuropaeuclimanewsarticlesnews_2015030601_en 20 European Commission 2015 The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 httpeceuropaeutransparencyregdocrep12015EN1-2015-81-EN-F1-1PDF

21 European Commission 2014 European Council Conclusions httpwwwconsiliumeuropaeuuedocscms_datadocspressdataenec145397pdf

Photo copy

Hung C

hung Chih Shutterstockcom

z

18

energy efficiency measures mean that the EUrsquos emissions (if all Member States achieve these targets) will be reduced by 4522 by 2030 However this higher target is by no means in line with achieving 15degC or with becoming a net-zero economy well-before mid-century23 let alone the EUrsquos equitable fair-share

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Paris Agreement marked a significant shift in global ambition on climate change and committed EU Member States and other UNFCCC parties to keeping average global temperature rise lsquowell belowrsquo 2degC and to pursuing efforts to limit it to 15degC

A few options exist that can be used to create the impetus for a revised higher level of EU ambition in 2030 The EU justifies its insufficient NDC by quoting various IPCC assessment reports Following this logic the EU should now begin using the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC as the basis for all of its actions Moreover while the Paris Agreement has been agreed the rules governing it are yet to be agreed so ensuring a strong and successful completion of these rules may help to reignite the debate on increased EU ambition In October 2018 the EUrsquos position for COP24 states that the EU will ldquocommunicate or update its NDC by 2020 taking into account the collective further efforts needed and actions undertaken by all Parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreementrdquo24 In this same position the EU highlighted the importance of the Global Stocktake in 2023 for enhancing climate action by acknowledging the Paris Agreementrsquos wider ambition cycle To round out this list of options the European Parliament recently voted to show support for an EU emissions reduction target of 55 by 203025

Typically for any ambition increase to occur all EU Heads of State and Government need to politically guide a target increase The next appropriate moment to discuss an increase is when they examine a new long-term climate and energy target and strategy for the EU which will most likely take place May 2019 This meeting would be an opportune moment for EU Member States to examine their own long-term targets thereby contributing information that would allow the bloc as a whole to explore what prospects there are for an even more ambitious NDC target in line with a new EU long-term target However no clear signal from all EU Member States has been sent that they would support such a revision of the EU NDC target Moreover the legislative right to initiate a revision lies with the European Commission a change in its cabinet is foreseen after the European Parliament elections (052019) the implications of which will only be known after it happens

Another track that can be used to pursue higher ambition is at the EU Member States level All EU Member States must develop and submit final national climate and energy plans (NECPS) by the end of 2019 outlining how a Member State will achieve their share of the EU 2030 targets With these plans Member States also have the opportunity to highlight measures that allow their domestic emissions reductions to go beyond the minimal action required to fulfil their share of the EU targets eg coal-phase out ahead of 2030 permanent cancellation of ETS allowances or higher rates of deployment of sustainable technologies ie renewable energy energy efficiency

Indeed a few EU Member States have called for increased EU ambition26 while other EU Member States have called for the EU to focus on implementing existing EU policies before looking to

22 European Commission (2018) Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Cantildeete at the High Level Stakeholder Conference The EUs Vision of a modern clean and competitive economy Available at httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_SPEECH-18-4447_enhtm 23 Climate Action Tracker (2018) EU Available at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieseu 24 Consilium (2018) Climate change Council adopts conclusions for COP24 Council of the EU Available here httpswwwconsiliumeuropaeuenpresspress-releases20181009climate-change-council-adopts-conclusions

25 European Parliament (2018) COP24 Resolution Available at httpwwweuroparleuropaeunewsenpress-room20181018IPR16550paris-agreement-meps-call-for-stepping-up-eu-climate-commitments 26 Bureau Woordvoering Kabinetsformatie (2018) Coalition agreement Trust in the future [Kingdom of the Netherlands Cabinet Coalition government] Available at httpswwwkabinetsformatie2017nldocumentenpublicaties20171010regeerakkoord-vertrouwen-in-de-toekomst_sp=97c0f122-98ad-4998-91f4-dc49cdd03a6c1507635788124

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

7

ACTION ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL ndash CASE STUDIES ON IMPROVING NDCS As WWF is present in about 100 different countries and works closely with national governments on developing national climate policies and strategies and implementing NDCs we have assembled this series of ten case studies to contribute to discussions and inspire further climate action and ambition at COP 24 and beyond

The case studies presented in this section describe the current commitments in NDCs2 in a selection of countries discuss the developments in those countries with regard to climate change action and include recommendations to increase ambition in those NDCs

2 Submitted NDCs can be viewed at httpswww4unfcccintsitesNDCStagingPagesAllaspx

8

BRAZIL CASE STUDY Description of NDC The Brazilian NDC set the goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37 below 2005 levels in 2025 As a subsequent indicative contribution Brazil intends to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43 below 2005 levels in 2030 Brazilrsquos NDC is economy wide and consistent with the long-term vision of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2degC above pre-industrial levels

In addition Brazilrsquos commitments included specific targets to increase the share of sustainable biofuels in the Brazilian energy mix to approximately 18 by 2030 by expand biofuel consumption increase ethanol supply strengthen policies and measures with a view to achieving zero illegal deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon by 2030 restore and reforest 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 restore an additional 15 million hectares of degraded pasturelands by 2030 and enhance 5 million hectares of integrated cropland-livestock-forestry systems by 2030 achieve 45 of renewables in the energy mix by 2030 including expanding the use of renewable energy sources other than hydropower in the total energy mix to between 28 and 33 by 2030 among other commitments

Regarding adaptation the Brazilian NDC commits to implementing policies and measures to adapt to climate change and contribute to building resilience of populations ecosystems infrastructure and production systems by reducing vulnerability and through the provision of ecosystem services The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) is one of the policies to be implemented

Photo copy Paulo de Abreu Shutterstockcom

9

Progress in implementation Over the last three years Brazilian society has made some advances in raising awareness about the strategy for implementation of the Brazilian NDC Several studies workshops and sectoral contributions were presented to guide government decisions on the Brazilian commitments to the Paris Agreement Among the studies we highlight a document from Brazilian Forum of Climate Change (FBMC acronym in Portuguese wwwfbmccombr ) ldquoShort-term Measures for Implementation of the Brazilian NDCrdquo3

In August 2018 the document was delivered to the President Michel Temer by the FBMC The president signed an act requesting the Forum to elaborate a position on the possibilities of reaching this long-term goal by 2060 This is the first time that Brazil has signaled this goal and the first step in Brazilrsquos positioning in relation to a long-term strategy for net-zero emissions

Other important documents are also ldquoIES-Brasil - Economic and Social Implications GHG Mitigation Scenarios 2030rdquo4 a scenario study that shows the economic and social benefits of NDC compliance and the additional benefits of increased ambition of mitigation targets (this study was supported by WWF-Brazil) and ldquoOptions for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation in Key Sectors of Brazilrdquo5 a study that estimates the potential and costs of GHG emission abatement through an integrated economic-energy analysis for the period between 2012 and 2050 in the different key sectors

Potential for increased ambition Systematically and annually reduce anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases for

the whole of Brazilrsquos economy by a maximum of 1 GtCO2e in 2030

Strengthen policies and measures to achieve the zero conversion of natural habitat of all biomes by 2030 and the reduction of deforestation rates of all biomes by 50 by 2020 and by 80 by 2025 in relation to the base year 2015

Restore and reforest 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 prioritizing the restoration of liabilities in permanent preservation areas (APPs)

Extend the scale of forest management systems in the Amazon to reach 20 million hectares by 2030 through georeferencing systems for forest production and traceability of their products with a view to discouraging illegal and unsustainable practices

3 httpsdrivegooglecomfiled1Z3f2vVILNx12ciZzTNGOE72qbQC4hcrdview

4httpwwwcentroclimacoppeufrjbrimagesNoticiasdocumentosies-brasil-20301_sumario-executivo-portuguespdf

5httpswwwmcticgovbrmcticopencmscienciaSEPEDclimaopcoes_mitigacaoOpcoes_de_Mitigacao_de_Emissoes_de_Gases_de_Efeito_Estufa_GEE_em_SetoresChave_do_Brasilhtml

10

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Brazil had Presidential elections in October 2018 It is unclear whether the new government that will take office on January 1st 2019 will maintain the same level of commitment to the NDC implementation as the previous government

Recommendations Brazil has the potential to increase ambition in the NDC Recommendations to achieve this include

Create a plan to discourage investments in new fossil fuel power plants Increase investment for non-hydro renewable sources aiming at the resilience and safety of the national electricity mix

Create instruments for the improvement of financing lines for microgeneration

Develop an efficient industrial policy to promote the competitiveness of non-hydro renewables

Expand biofuel and food production in degraded pasture areas

Accelerate implementation of the Forest Code ensuring public transparency and social control

Increase recovery of degraded pastures

Strengthen technical assistance to implement sustainable practices and improvement of productivity in livestock

11

CHILE CASE STUDY Description of NDC Chile has pledged unconditional conditional (on international financial support in the form of grants) and specific land-use and land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) targets Unconditionally Chile committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of GDP to 30 below 2007 levels by 2030 This target covers the energy industrial processes and waste sectors Climate Action Tracker (2018) estimates that this will lead to GHG emissions levels of 154 above 1990 and 42 above 2010 excluding LULUCF based on current GDP projections managed by the government6 The conditional target is a 35ndash45 reduction of GHG emission intensity of GDP below 2007 levels by 2030 which according to Climate Action Tracker is equivalent to 100ndash136 above 1990 levels and 12ndash24 above 2010 GHG emissions levels excluding LULUCF Regarding LULUCF Chile pledged to sustainably manage and recover 100000 hectares (ha) of forest by 2030 and to reforest 100000 ha subject to approval of new laws Chile is one of the few countries to separate the LULUCF sector target from other emissions which increases the transparency of its proposed actions On adaptation Chile pledged to develop sectoral adaptation plans to establish specific measures and mechanisms to measure progress

Progress in implementation Since COP21 the Chilean Government has made significant progress in elaborating national plans for mitigation in the energy sector and for adaptation following a sector-specific approach including forestry and agriculture infrastructure biodiversity fisheries health and cities Moreover under the Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) initiative supported by the World 6 httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieschile

12

Bank Chile has been analysing carbon pricing options since 2015 Although the current carbon tax remains ineffective in terms of mitigation outcomes (US$5tCO2) institutional capacity was built for monitoring and reporting for the largest CO2 emissions sources at the national level In 2017 Chile issued a National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) which includes the first national-level Emissions Reduction Programme that targets reductions in the rates of land and forest degradation and also increasing forest carbon capture through reforestation It is expected that over a period of 9 years improvements in AFOLU-related policies and in management programs would contribute significantly towards Chileacutes NDC while accessing results-based-payments in the carbon market7 However a mega fire outbreak in early 2017 affecting 600000 ha of forest plantations grasslands and native forests demonstrated the vulnerability of land - both encompassed by this Programme and beyond it - to climate change

The frequency and extent of fires in the Centre and South of Chile is the greatest factor of uncertainty and could be determinant in shaping Chileacutes future GHG emissions trajectory Before 2017 the AFOLU sector was a net absorber of emissions mostly associated to the expansion of forest plantations and played a significant role in reducing the overall net balance of emissions However excluding AFOLU since 1990 net national emissions steadily rose due to increasing rate of burning of fossil fuels (IPCC energy sector) This overall trend continues today

Potential for increased ambition In the run-up to a revised NDC in 2020 the greatest potential for increased ambition lies in GHG mitigation in the energy generation sector Chiles geography political stability robust economy and energy market conditions create an exceptional environment to accelerate the transition to a low emissions economy Nevertheless this will require phase-out of coal capacity before it reaches end-of-life Coal reached 53 of installed capacity in May 20188 versus 18 of current renewable capacity In early 2018 Chile announced that it will not build any new coal-fired power plants (without CCS) and will develop a plan to phase out coal as coal-fired power permitting has stalled in recent years due to the comparatively low costs of renewable energy Current solar PV and onshore wind costs in Chile are as low as US$ 003kWh to US$ 004kWh9 However under business as usual (BAU) conditions the fact that a significant portion of coal plants have been built in recent years means that projections are for a 19 share for coal in electricity generation in 2050 This share would need to be close to zero to make Chileacutes energy sector compatible to 15degC10 Chiles Ministry of Energy is leading a roundtable to analyse the best options for the decommissioning or reconversion of coal-plant capacity but there is still the need for strong political will corporate leadership and citizen engagement to ensure that Chile can include coal-phase out as a key measure for increased NDC ambition in 2020

The National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) launched in 2017 provides a solid foundation to scale-up and integrate other land-based and nature-based mitigation and adaptation solutions particularly through forest landscape restoration This is an opportunity to reduce the severity of extensive fires Work through this strategy to increase landscape resilience will help ensure baseline conditions are maintained and take advantage of the opportunity to capture mitigation and reduced land vulnerability (adaptation) In this context a national forest restoration plan with the goal of restoring up to 1M ha coupled with watershed management measures and scaled-up plans for biodiversity protection (such as those proposed under the National Adaptation Plan for Biodiversity) would show clear signs of Chilersquos commitment Mitigation in LULUCF is still a low hanging fruit for increased NDC mitigation ambition that addresses further social and environmental needs for adaptation and sustainable development while opening the opportunity to integrate ecosystem protection for future generations

7 httpwwwconafclcmseditorwebENCCRVNota-Informativa-24pdf 8 httpgeneradorascldocumentosboletinesboletin-mercado-electrico-sector-generacion-junio-2018

9 httpswwwirenaorgpublications2018JanRenewable-power-generation-costs-in-2017

10 Climate Tracker 2018

13

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Chilersquos 2050 Energy Policy (PE2050) aims for renewable targets of at least 60 by 2035 and 70 by 2050 for electricity generation Recently the Energy Route 2018-2022 the Mitigation Plan for the Energy Sector and the Electromobility Strategy stand out as complementary policies that together should foster increased energy efficiency scaling-up small distributed energy and introducing 100 electric public transport and 40 electric private vehicle fleet by 2050 These developments represent strong signals for change however there is still the need to determine how the government will deploy measures improve enabling conditions for the private sector and ensure a participatory approach with citizens particularly in the cases where local impact is expected Furthermore there is an urgent need to accelerate adaptation response across the territory While adaptation sectoral plans are being developed at the national level it is crucial to move forward in implementation plans with strong local and regional participation

Recommendations For Chile to increase its NDC ambition it should

Include the mitigation resulting from a national agreement and plan to phase out coal-fired generation in the NDC in 2020 The government companies and local community representatives should continue working on transparent criteria to determine the timelines support and measures involved in the decommissioning of each unit

By 2020 improve the design and expand the scope of the current carbon tax to include other highly emitting sectors Establishing a gradually rising carbon price will provide more certainty to investors that play a key role in scaling up the implementation of climate-compatible projects

For successful coal phase-out the NDC should include a commitment to work with the private sector and civil society to ensure enabling policy conditions for renewable energy capacity to replace coal-fired capacity by building a reliable efficient inclusive sustainable and secure system

The NDC can also include at least a portion of mitigation results expected by 2030 through the implementation of the Electromobility Plan launched in 2018 Including electromobility in Chileacutes NDC will reflect institutional commitment on this matter which in turn will better position this emerging market in the map of investors

Introduce a significantly stronger target for forest landscape restoration (up to 1M ha) that accelerates national action and accesses international support to reduce the exposure to water scarcity and conditions leading to fires which peak LULUCF emissions (as in 2016-17) Moreover a commitment to develop land-based (including nature-based) adaptation measures is increasingly critical to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience across the country

Support increased NDC ambition in 2020 by pooling mitigation potentials by 2030 from coal phase out the expansion of renewable energy utility and distributed capacity and progress in electromobility While fires are becoming a great factor of uncertainty it is still possible and necessary to increase LULUCFAFOLU mitigation ambition Chile is already piloting results-based-payments and further reforestation and reducing land and forest degradation are critical to reduce vulnerability strengthen resilience and adaptation while also protecting essential ecosystem services biodiversity and to incentivise decentralised sustainable development

14

CHINA CASE STUDY Description of NDC China submitted its NDC to the UNFCCC in June 2015 It covers targets policies and implementation measures for both mitigation and adaptation

The key targets of the NDC to be achieved around or by 2030 are summarized as follows a) to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and make best efforts to peak earlier than that b) to lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65 from the 2005 level c) to increase the share of non-fossil fuels11 in primary energy consumption to around 20 and d) to increase the forest stock volume by around 45 billion cubic meters compared to 2005

To achieve this a series of policies and measures were proposed including for energy system industry buildings transportation and carbon sinks

As for adaptation China proposed to ldquoproactively adapt to climate change by enhancing mechanisms and capacities to effectively defend against climate change risks in key areasrdquo and to ldquoprogressively strengthen early warning and emergency response systems and disaster prevention and reduction mechanismsrdquo covering various sectors including agriculture forestry and water resources as well as in cities coastal and ecologically vulnerable areas

Progress in implementation Chinarsquos 2020 target to reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45 was reached already in 2017 and the target for forest stock volume was also over-fulfilled With Chinarsquos renewable energy industry boom the proportion of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption increased to 138 by

11 Non-fossil fuels here mean renewables and nuclear energy

Photo copy

ArtisticP

hoto Shutterstockcom

z

15

2017 These achievements also give China a solid foundation to reach its 2030 targets before that date

Coal consumption control and the transition from coal to non-fossil fuels might be the most important drivers for Chinarsquos progress While coal remains the dominant fuel in China the percentage of coal in total energy consumption decreased from 724 in 2005 to 604 in 2017 In contrast Chinarsquos renewable energy sector is booming According to REN21 China ranks as the worldrsquos leader in total renewables capacity and also in solar PV wind and geothermal heating capacity and investment in renewables capacity12 By the end of 2017 Chinarsquos total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 650GW with massive growth in wind and solar power especially It is estimated that Chinarsquos proportion of non-fossil energy sources will reach and surpass 15 by 2020

The policies issued and the actions implemented by Chinese government and other stakeholders will ensure a full fulfillment of the commitment that Chinese government has pledged to the international society Most prominently Chinarsquos international pledges and national targets are backed up by national strategies policies and detailed implementation measures with transparency and accountability mechanism

Potential for increased ambition According to a survey done by the China Carbon Forum 87 of respondents expect China to achieve the carbon emissions peak by 2030 the latest and 48 even expect it by 2025 or earlier13 Most of the research revealed that China could peak earlier than or well before 2030 and one study shows that Chinarsquos carbon emissions are likely to peak between 2020 and 202214 Given its economic restructuring potential China could achieve an emissions peak around 2023 with efforts in energy efficiency lowering the CO2 intensity in Chinarsquos GDP by just over 71 by 2030 compared to 2005 thus exceeding the NDC target of 60-6515

The transition trend from coal to renewables and other low carbon energy sources might be a great driver for China to overachieve its 2030 targets A new study released by the China National Renewable Energy Centre reveals that it is possible and beneficial for Chinarsquos fossil fuel use to peak in 2020 and decline steadily towards 203516 According to a 2015 WWF report around 84 of Chinarsquos electricity generation can be met with renewable sources by mid-century and the number is expected to be 49 in 203017

Given the above progress and scenario analyses we believe China has the potential to improve its NDC in terms of the peaking timeline share of non-fossil fuel in the primary energy consumption and carbon intensity targets showing more leadership as a torchbearer in global climate governance There is also reason to expect China to soon propose a long-term strategy for 2050 under the 15degC and 2degC scenarios

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Chinese government has shown strong political will on environmental protection in recent years through emphasizing the concept of ldquoecological civilizationrdquo Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China the environment has risen to an unprecedented status

12 REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report

13 China Carbon Forum 2018 ldquo2018 China Carbon Pricing Surveyrdquo

14 Chinadialogue 5 June 2018 ldquoRoundtable Is China still on track to reach its Paris targetsrdquo httpswwwchinadialoguenetarticleshowsingleen10653-Roundtable-Is-China-still-on-track-to-reach-its-Paris-targets- 15 Qilin Liu Qi Lei Huiming Xu etal ldquoChinarsquos energy revolution strategy into 2030rdquo in Resources Conservation and Recycling 2018 128 78-89

16 China National Renewable Energy Center 2018 ldquoChina Renewable Energy Outlook 2018rdquo

17 WWF 2015 ldquoChinarsquos Future Generation 20rdquo httpsd2ouvy59p0dg6kcloudfrontnetdownloadschina_s_future_generation_2_0_reportpdf

16

in the national development agenda The main driving force for environmental protection is the need for sustainable development including the need to fight air pollution

While US President Donald Trump has announced that the US will be pulling out of the Paris Agreement the China government has several times reaffirmed its commitment to the Agreement and the countryrsquos targets However it should also be noted that international trade tension between China and the US and the domestic challenges of slower economic growth arising from that have resulted in some conservative arguments against ambitious climate action in China18

Recommendations For China to reach its sustainable development ambition and goal of becoming an ldquoecological civilizationrdquo by mid-century and when considering the need for urgent and ambitious climate actions to avoid global warming over 15degC it should take the following actions

Revise its climate targets and commitments under the Paris Agreement by 2020 by

Bringing the timeline for emissions peaking to around 2022

Proposing a carbon emission reduction pathway for the period after the peaking to be in line with the Paris Agreementrsquos 15-2degC target

Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy to achieve a higher share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030

Accelerate its energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by

Strengthening coal consumption control halting new coal power and eliminating inefficient capacity

Reducing dispersed coal burning through efficiency improvement reduction and clean energy replacement

Accelerating power sector reform to create an environment for promoting large-scale and distributed deployment of renewable energy

Enhance international cooperation to take more leadership in addressing global climate change by

Supporting other developing countries to improve their capacity to achieving their climate targets through south-south cooperation on climate change

Shifting Chinarsquos oversea energy investments from coal to renewables to accelerate the pace and scale of the worldrsquos transition to a sustainable model of energy and development

18 Li Shuo 28 October 2018 ldquoDoes China Still Want to Be a Global Environmental Leaderrdquo httpsthediplomatcom201810does-china-still-want-to-be-a-global-environmental-leader

17

EUROPEAN UNION CASE STUDY Description of NDC The EU NDC purely focuses on mitigation outlining the agreed EU domestic emissions reduction target the implementation process and a narrative on why the EU believes its NDC is fair and ambitious This submission covers the collective contribution of the EU and the 28 Member States

The commitment is for the EU and the Member States to achieve an unconditional economy-wide ldquobinding target of an at least 40 domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990rdquo on 100 of emissions to be achieved domestically without the use of international credits19 The commitment period for the target is from January 1st 2021 (the EUrsquos second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol ends on December 31st 2020) to December 31st 2030 Additional legislation was created to facilitate the achievement of this goal including on LULUCF energy and transport The NDC holds no concrete information on any non-mitigation elements eg adaptation climate finance loss amp damage Complementing its NDC is the European Commission Communication lsquoThe Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 202020 which briefly discusses basic elements on several issues including climate finance adaptation and mitigation cycles

Progress in implementation The EUrsquos 2030 climate and energy framework21 -politically agreed in October 2014- forms the basis of its NDC The various pieces of legislation that pursue the attainment of the NDC target were agreed between 2016 and 2018 by EU Member States and European Parliament Of note based on the EUrsquos own calculations new legislative targets on renewable energy uptake and 19 European Commission (2015) Environment Council approves the EUs intended nationally determined contribution to the new global climate agreement Available at httpseceuropaeuclimanewsarticlesnews_2015030601_en 20 European Commission 2015 The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 httpeceuropaeutransparencyregdocrep12015EN1-2015-81-EN-F1-1PDF

21 European Commission 2014 European Council Conclusions httpwwwconsiliumeuropaeuuedocscms_datadocspressdataenec145397pdf

Photo copy

Hung C

hung Chih Shutterstockcom

z

18

energy efficiency measures mean that the EUrsquos emissions (if all Member States achieve these targets) will be reduced by 4522 by 2030 However this higher target is by no means in line with achieving 15degC or with becoming a net-zero economy well-before mid-century23 let alone the EUrsquos equitable fair-share

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Paris Agreement marked a significant shift in global ambition on climate change and committed EU Member States and other UNFCCC parties to keeping average global temperature rise lsquowell belowrsquo 2degC and to pursuing efforts to limit it to 15degC

A few options exist that can be used to create the impetus for a revised higher level of EU ambition in 2030 The EU justifies its insufficient NDC by quoting various IPCC assessment reports Following this logic the EU should now begin using the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC as the basis for all of its actions Moreover while the Paris Agreement has been agreed the rules governing it are yet to be agreed so ensuring a strong and successful completion of these rules may help to reignite the debate on increased EU ambition In October 2018 the EUrsquos position for COP24 states that the EU will ldquocommunicate or update its NDC by 2020 taking into account the collective further efforts needed and actions undertaken by all Parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreementrdquo24 In this same position the EU highlighted the importance of the Global Stocktake in 2023 for enhancing climate action by acknowledging the Paris Agreementrsquos wider ambition cycle To round out this list of options the European Parliament recently voted to show support for an EU emissions reduction target of 55 by 203025

Typically for any ambition increase to occur all EU Heads of State and Government need to politically guide a target increase The next appropriate moment to discuss an increase is when they examine a new long-term climate and energy target and strategy for the EU which will most likely take place May 2019 This meeting would be an opportune moment for EU Member States to examine their own long-term targets thereby contributing information that would allow the bloc as a whole to explore what prospects there are for an even more ambitious NDC target in line with a new EU long-term target However no clear signal from all EU Member States has been sent that they would support such a revision of the EU NDC target Moreover the legislative right to initiate a revision lies with the European Commission a change in its cabinet is foreseen after the European Parliament elections (052019) the implications of which will only be known after it happens

Another track that can be used to pursue higher ambition is at the EU Member States level All EU Member States must develop and submit final national climate and energy plans (NECPS) by the end of 2019 outlining how a Member State will achieve their share of the EU 2030 targets With these plans Member States also have the opportunity to highlight measures that allow their domestic emissions reductions to go beyond the minimal action required to fulfil their share of the EU targets eg coal-phase out ahead of 2030 permanent cancellation of ETS allowances or higher rates of deployment of sustainable technologies ie renewable energy energy efficiency

Indeed a few EU Member States have called for increased EU ambition26 while other EU Member States have called for the EU to focus on implementing existing EU policies before looking to

22 European Commission (2018) Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Cantildeete at the High Level Stakeholder Conference The EUs Vision of a modern clean and competitive economy Available at httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_SPEECH-18-4447_enhtm 23 Climate Action Tracker (2018) EU Available at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieseu 24 Consilium (2018) Climate change Council adopts conclusions for COP24 Council of the EU Available here httpswwwconsiliumeuropaeuenpresspress-releases20181009climate-change-council-adopts-conclusions

25 European Parliament (2018) COP24 Resolution Available at httpwwweuroparleuropaeunewsenpress-room20181018IPR16550paris-agreement-meps-call-for-stepping-up-eu-climate-commitments 26 Bureau Woordvoering Kabinetsformatie (2018) Coalition agreement Trust in the future [Kingdom of the Netherlands Cabinet Coalition government] Available at httpswwwkabinetsformatie2017nldocumentenpublicaties20171010regeerakkoord-vertrouwen-in-de-toekomst_sp=97c0f122-98ad-4998-91f4-dc49cdd03a6c1507635788124

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

8

BRAZIL CASE STUDY Description of NDC The Brazilian NDC set the goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37 below 2005 levels in 2025 As a subsequent indicative contribution Brazil intends to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43 below 2005 levels in 2030 Brazilrsquos NDC is economy wide and consistent with the long-term vision of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2degC above pre-industrial levels

In addition Brazilrsquos commitments included specific targets to increase the share of sustainable biofuels in the Brazilian energy mix to approximately 18 by 2030 by expand biofuel consumption increase ethanol supply strengthen policies and measures with a view to achieving zero illegal deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon by 2030 restore and reforest 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 restore an additional 15 million hectares of degraded pasturelands by 2030 and enhance 5 million hectares of integrated cropland-livestock-forestry systems by 2030 achieve 45 of renewables in the energy mix by 2030 including expanding the use of renewable energy sources other than hydropower in the total energy mix to between 28 and 33 by 2030 among other commitments

Regarding adaptation the Brazilian NDC commits to implementing policies and measures to adapt to climate change and contribute to building resilience of populations ecosystems infrastructure and production systems by reducing vulnerability and through the provision of ecosystem services The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) is one of the policies to be implemented

Photo copy Paulo de Abreu Shutterstockcom

9

Progress in implementation Over the last three years Brazilian society has made some advances in raising awareness about the strategy for implementation of the Brazilian NDC Several studies workshops and sectoral contributions were presented to guide government decisions on the Brazilian commitments to the Paris Agreement Among the studies we highlight a document from Brazilian Forum of Climate Change (FBMC acronym in Portuguese wwwfbmccombr ) ldquoShort-term Measures for Implementation of the Brazilian NDCrdquo3

In August 2018 the document was delivered to the President Michel Temer by the FBMC The president signed an act requesting the Forum to elaborate a position on the possibilities of reaching this long-term goal by 2060 This is the first time that Brazil has signaled this goal and the first step in Brazilrsquos positioning in relation to a long-term strategy for net-zero emissions

Other important documents are also ldquoIES-Brasil - Economic and Social Implications GHG Mitigation Scenarios 2030rdquo4 a scenario study that shows the economic and social benefits of NDC compliance and the additional benefits of increased ambition of mitigation targets (this study was supported by WWF-Brazil) and ldquoOptions for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation in Key Sectors of Brazilrdquo5 a study that estimates the potential and costs of GHG emission abatement through an integrated economic-energy analysis for the period between 2012 and 2050 in the different key sectors

Potential for increased ambition Systematically and annually reduce anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases for

the whole of Brazilrsquos economy by a maximum of 1 GtCO2e in 2030

Strengthen policies and measures to achieve the zero conversion of natural habitat of all biomes by 2030 and the reduction of deforestation rates of all biomes by 50 by 2020 and by 80 by 2025 in relation to the base year 2015

Restore and reforest 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 prioritizing the restoration of liabilities in permanent preservation areas (APPs)

Extend the scale of forest management systems in the Amazon to reach 20 million hectares by 2030 through georeferencing systems for forest production and traceability of their products with a view to discouraging illegal and unsustainable practices

3 httpsdrivegooglecomfiled1Z3f2vVILNx12ciZzTNGOE72qbQC4hcrdview

4httpwwwcentroclimacoppeufrjbrimagesNoticiasdocumentosies-brasil-20301_sumario-executivo-portuguespdf

5httpswwwmcticgovbrmcticopencmscienciaSEPEDclimaopcoes_mitigacaoOpcoes_de_Mitigacao_de_Emissoes_de_Gases_de_Efeito_Estufa_GEE_em_SetoresChave_do_Brasilhtml

10

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Brazil had Presidential elections in October 2018 It is unclear whether the new government that will take office on January 1st 2019 will maintain the same level of commitment to the NDC implementation as the previous government

Recommendations Brazil has the potential to increase ambition in the NDC Recommendations to achieve this include

Create a plan to discourage investments in new fossil fuel power plants Increase investment for non-hydro renewable sources aiming at the resilience and safety of the national electricity mix

Create instruments for the improvement of financing lines for microgeneration

Develop an efficient industrial policy to promote the competitiveness of non-hydro renewables

Expand biofuel and food production in degraded pasture areas

Accelerate implementation of the Forest Code ensuring public transparency and social control

Increase recovery of degraded pastures

Strengthen technical assistance to implement sustainable practices and improvement of productivity in livestock

11

CHILE CASE STUDY Description of NDC Chile has pledged unconditional conditional (on international financial support in the form of grants) and specific land-use and land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) targets Unconditionally Chile committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of GDP to 30 below 2007 levels by 2030 This target covers the energy industrial processes and waste sectors Climate Action Tracker (2018) estimates that this will lead to GHG emissions levels of 154 above 1990 and 42 above 2010 excluding LULUCF based on current GDP projections managed by the government6 The conditional target is a 35ndash45 reduction of GHG emission intensity of GDP below 2007 levels by 2030 which according to Climate Action Tracker is equivalent to 100ndash136 above 1990 levels and 12ndash24 above 2010 GHG emissions levels excluding LULUCF Regarding LULUCF Chile pledged to sustainably manage and recover 100000 hectares (ha) of forest by 2030 and to reforest 100000 ha subject to approval of new laws Chile is one of the few countries to separate the LULUCF sector target from other emissions which increases the transparency of its proposed actions On adaptation Chile pledged to develop sectoral adaptation plans to establish specific measures and mechanisms to measure progress

Progress in implementation Since COP21 the Chilean Government has made significant progress in elaborating national plans for mitigation in the energy sector and for adaptation following a sector-specific approach including forestry and agriculture infrastructure biodiversity fisheries health and cities Moreover under the Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) initiative supported by the World 6 httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieschile

12

Bank Chile has been analysing carbon pricing options since 2015 Although the current carbon tax remains ineffective in terms of mitigation outcomes (US$5tCO2) institutional capacity was built for monitoring and reporting for the largest CO2 emissions sources at the national level In 2017 Chile issued a National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) which includes the first national-level Emissions Reduction Programme that targets reductions in the rates of land and forest degradation and also increasing forest carbon capture through reforestation It is expected that over a period of 9 years improvements in AFOLU-related policies and in management programs would contribute significantly towards Chileacutes NDC while accessing results-based-payments in the carbon market7 However a mega fire outbreak in early 2017 affecting 600000 ha of forest plantations grasslands and native forests demonstrated the vulnerability of land - both encompassed by this Programme and beyond it - to climate change

The frequency and extent of fires in the Centre and South of Chile is the greatest factor of uncertainty and could be determinant in shaping Chileacutes future GHG emissions trajectory Before 2017 the AFOLU sector was a net absorber of emissions mostly associated to the expansion of forest plantations and played a significant role in reducing the overall net balance of emissions However excluding AFOLU since 1990 net national emissions steadily rose due to increasing rate of burning of fossil fuels (IPCC energy sector) This overall trend continues today

Potential for increased ambition In the run-up to a revised NDC in 2020 the greatest potential for increased ambition lies in GHG mitigation in the energy generation sector Chiles geography political stability robust economy and energy market conditions create an exceptional environment to accelerate the transition to a low emissions economy Nevertheless this will require phase-out of coal capacity before it reaches end-of-life Coal reached 53 of installed capacity in May 20188 versus 18 of current renewable capacity In early 2018 Chile announced that it will not build any new coal-fired power plants (without CCS) and will develop a plan to phase out coal as coal-fired power permitting has stalled in recent years due to the comparatively low costs of renewable energy Current solar PV and onshore wind costs in Chile are as low as US$ 003kWh to US$ 004kWh9 However under business as usual (BAU) conditions the fact that a significant portion of coal plants have been built in recent years means that projections are for a 19 share for coal in electricity generation in 2050 This share would need to be close to zero to make Chileacutes energy sector compatible to 15degC10 Chiles Ministry of Energy is leading a roundtable to analyse the best options for the decommissioning or reconversion of coal-plant capacity but there is still the need for strong political will corporate leadership and citizen engagement to ensure that Chile can include coal-phase out as a key measure for increased NDC ambition in 2020

The National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) launched in 2017 provides a solid foundation to scale-up and integrate other land-based and nature-based mitigation and adaptation solutions particularly through forest landscape restoration This is an opportunity to reduce the severity of extensive fires Work through this strategy to increase landscape resilience will help ensure baseline conditions are maintained and take advantage of the opportunity to capture mitigation and reduced land vulnerability (adaptation) In this context a national forest restoration plan with the goal of restoring up to 1M ha coupled with watershed management measures and scaled-up plans for biodiversity protection (such as those proposed under the National Adaptation Plan for Biodiversity) would show clear signs of Chilersquos commitment Mitigation in LULUCF is still a low hanging fruit for increased NDC mitigation ambition that addresses further social and environmental needs for adaptation and sustainable development while opening the opportunity to integrate ecosystem protection for future generations

7 httpwwwconafclcmseditorwebENCCRVNota-Informativa-24pdf 8 httpgeneradorascldocumentosboletinesboletin-mercado-electrico-sector-generacion-junio-2018

9 httpswwwirenaorgpublications2018JanRenewable-power-generation-costs-in-2017

10 Climate Tracker 2018

13

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Chilersquos 2050 Energy Policy (PE2050) aims for renewable targets of at least 60 by 2035 and 70 by 2050 for electricity generation Recently the Energy Route 2018-2022 the Mitigation Plan for the Energy Sector and the Electromobility Strategy stand out as complementary policies that together should foster increased energy efficiency scaling-up small distributed energy and introducing 100 electric public transport and 40 electric private vehicle fleet by 2050 These developments represent strong signals for change however there is still the need to determine how the government will deploy measures improve enabling conditions for the private sector and ensure a participatory approach with citizens particularly in the cases where local impact is expected Furthermore there is an urgent need to accelerate adaptation response across the territory While adaptation sectoral plans are being developed at the national level it is crucial to move forward in implementation plans with strong local and regional participation

Recommendations For Chile to increase its NDC ambition it should

Include the mitigation resulting from a national agreement and plan to phase out coal-fired generation in the NDC in 2020 The government companies and local community representatives should continue working on transparent criteria to determine the timelines support and measures involved in the decommissioning of each unit

By 2020 improve the design and expand the scope of the current carbon tax to include other highly emitting sectors Establishing a gradually rising carbon price will provide more certainty to investors that play a key role in scaling up the implementation of climate-compatible projects

For successful coal phase-out the NDC should include a commitment to work with the private sector and civil society to ensure enabling policy conditions for renewable energy capacity to replace coal-fired capacity by building a reliable efficient inclusive sustainable and secure system

The NDC can also include at least a portion of mitigation results expected by 2030 through the implementation of the Electromobility Plan launched in 2018 Including electromobility in Chileacutes NDC will reflect institutional commitment on this matter which in turn will better position this emerging market in the map of investors

Introduce a significantly stronger target for forest landscape restoration (up to 1M ha) that accelerates national action and accesses international support to reduce the exposure to water scarcity and conditions leading to fires which peak LULUCF emissions (as in 2016-17) Moreover a commitment to develop land-based (including nature-based) adaptation measures is increasingly critical to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience across the country

Support increased NDC ambition in 2020 by pooling mitigation potentials by 2030 from coal phase out the expansion of renewable energy utility and distributed capacity and progress in electromobility While fires are becoming a great factor of uncertainty it is still possible and necessary to increase LULUCFAFOLU mitigation ambition Chile is already piloting results-based-payments and further reforestation and reducing land and forest degradation are critical to reduce vulnerability strengthen resilience and adaptation while also protecting essential ecosystem services biodiversity and to incentivise decentralised sustainable development

14

CHINA CASE STUDY Description of NDC China submitted its NDC to the UNFCCC in June 2015 It covers targets policies and implementation measures for both mitigation and adaptation

The key targets of the NDC to be achieved around or by 2030 are summarized as follows a) to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and make best efforts to peak earlier than that b) to lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65 from the 2005 level c) to increase the share of non-fossil fuels11 in primary energy consumption to around 20 and d) to increase the forest stock volume by around 45 billion cubic meters compared to 2005

To achieve this a series of policies and measures were proposed including for energy system industry buildings transportation and carbon sinks

As for adaptation China proposed to ldquoproactively adapt to climate change by enhancing mechanisms and capacities to effectively defend against climate change risks in key areasrdquo and to ldquoprogressively strengthen early warning and emergency response systems and disaster prevention and reduction mechanismsrdquo covering various sectors including agriculture forestry and water resources as well as in cities coastal and ecologically vulnerable areas

Progress in implementation Chinarsquos 2020 target to reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45 was reached already in 2017 and the target for forest stock volume was also over-fulfilled With Chinarsquos renewable energy industry boom the proportion of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption increased to 138 by

11 Non-fossil fuels here mean renewables and nuclear energy

Photo copy

ArtisticP

hoto Shutterstockcom

z

15

2017 These achievements also give China a solid foundation to reach its 2030 targets before that date

Coal consumption control and the transition from coal to non-fossil fuels might be the most important drivers for Chinarsquos progress While coal remains the dominant fuel in China the percentage of coal in total energy consumption decreased from 724 in 2005 to 604 in 2017 In contrast Chinarsquos renewable energy sector is booming According to REN21 China ranks as the worldrsquos leader in total renewables capacity and also in solar PV wind and geothermal heating capacity and investment in renewables capacity12 By the end of 2017 Chinarsquos total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 650GW with massive growth in wind and solar power especially It is estimated that Chinarsquos proportion of non-fossil energy sources will reach and surpass 15 by 2020

The policies issued and the actions implemented by Chinese government and other stakeholders will ensure a full fulfillment of the commitment that Chinese government has pledged to the international society Most prominently Chinarsquos international pledges and national targets are backed up by national strategies policies and detailed implementation measures with transparency and accountability mechanism

Potential for increased ambition According to a survey done by the China Carbon Forum 87 of respondents expect China to achieve the carbon emissions peak by 2030 the latest and 48 even expect it by 2025 or earlier13 Most of the research revealed that China could peak earlier than or well before 2030 and one study shows that Chinarsquos carbon emissions are likely to peak between 2020 and 202214 Given its economic restructuring potential China could achieve an emissions peak around 2023 with efforts in energy efficiency lowering the CO2 intensity in Chinarsquos GDP by just over 71 by 2030 compared to 2005 thus exceeding the NDC target of 60-6515

The transition trend from coal to renewables and other low carbon energy sources might be a great driver for China to overachieve its 2030 targets A new study released by the China National Renewable Energy Centre reveals that it is possible and beneficial for Chinarsquos fossil fuel use to peak in 2020 and decline steadily towards 203516 According to a 2015 WWF report around 84 of Chinarsquos electricity generation can be met with renewable sources by mid-century and the number is expected to be 49 in 203017

Given the above progress and scenario analyses we believe China has the potential to improve its NDC in terms of the peaking timeline share of non-fossil fuel in the primary energy consumption and carbon intensity targets showing more leadership as a torchbearer in global climate governance There is also reason to expect China to soon propose a long-term strategy for 2050 under the 15degC and 2degC scenarios

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Chinese government has shown strong political will on environmental protection in recent years through emphasizing the concept of ldquoecological civilizationrdquo Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China the environment has risen to an unprecedented status

12 REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report

13 China Carbon Forum 2018 ldquo2018 China Carbon Pricing Surveyrdquo

14 Chinadialogue 5 June 2018 ldquoRoundtable Is China still on track to reach its Paris targetsrdquo httpswwwchinadialoguenetarticleshowsingleen10653-Roundtable-Is-China-still-on-track-to-reach-its-Paris-targets- 15 Qilin Liu Qi Lei Huiming Xu etal ldquoChinarsquos energy revolution strategy into 2030rdquo in Resources Conservation and Recycling 2018 128 78-89

16 China National Renewable Energy Center 2018 ldquoChina Renewable Energy Outlook 2018rdquo

17 WWF 2015 ldquoChinarsquos Future Generation 20rdquo httpsd2ouvy59p0dg6kcloudfrontnetdownloadschina_s_future_generation_2_0_reportpdf

16

in the national development agenda The main driving force for environmental protection is the need for sustainable development including the need to fight air pollution

While US President Donald Trump has announced that the US will be pulling out of the Paris Agreement the China government has several times reaffirmed its commitment to the Agreement and the countryrsquos targets However it should also be noted that international trade tension between China and the US and the domestic challenges of slower economic growth arising from that have resulted in some conservative arguments against ambitious climate action in China18

Recommendations For China to reach its sustainable development ambition and goal of becoming an ldquoecological civilizationrdquo by mid-century and when considering the need for urgent and ambitious climate actions to avoid global warming over 15degC it should take the following actions

Revise its climate targets and commitments under the Paris Agreement by 2020 by

Bringing the timeline for emissions peaking to around 2022

Proposing a carbon emission reduction pathway for the period after the peaking to be in line with the Paris Agreementrsquos 15-2degC target

Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy to achieve a higher share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030

Accelerate its energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by

Strengthening coal consumption control halting new coal power and eliminating inefficient capacity

Reducing dispersed coal burning through efficiency improvement reduction and clean energy replacement

Accelerating power sector reform to create an environment for promoting large-scale and distributed deployment of renewable energy

Enhance international cooperation to take more leadership in addressing global climate change by

Supporting other developing countries to improve their capacity to achieving their climate targets through south-south cooperation on climate change

Shifting Chinarsquos oversea energy investments from coal to renewables to accelerate the pace and scale of the worldrsquos transition to a sustainable model of energy and development

18 Li Shuo 28 October 2018 ldquoDoes China Still Want to Be a Global Environmental Leaderrdquo httpsthediplomatcom201810does-china-still-want-to-be-a-global-environmental-leader

17

EUROPEAN UNION CASE STUDY Description of NDC The EU NDC purely focuses on mitigation outlining the agreed EU domestic emissions reduction target the implementation process and a narrative on why the EU believes its NDC is fair and ambitious This submission covers the collective contribution of the EU and the 28 Member States

The commitment is for the EU and the Member States to achieve an unconditional economy-wide ldquobinding target of an at least 40 domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990rdquo on 100 of emissions to be achieved domestically without the use of international credits19 The commitment period for the target is from January 1st 2021 (the EUrsquos second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol ends on December 31st 2020) to December 31st 2030 Additional legislation was created to facilitate the achievement of this goal including on LULUCF energy and transport The NDC holds no concrete information on any non-mitigation elements eg adaptation climate finance loss amp damage Complementing its NDC is the European Commission Communication lsquoThe Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 202020 which briefly discusses basic elements on several issues including climate finance adaptation and mitigation cycles

Progress in implementation The EUrsquos 2030 climate and energy framework21 -politically agreed in October 2014- forms the basis of its NDC The various pieces of legislation that pursue the attainment of the NDC target were agreed between 2016 and 2018 by EU Member States and European Parliament Of note based on the EUrsquos own calculations new legislative targets on renewable energy uptake and 19 European Commission (2015) Environment Council approves the EUs intended nationally determined contribution to the new global climate agreement Available at httpseceuropaeuclimanewsarticlesnews_2015030601_en 20 European Commission 2015 The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 httpeceuropaeutransparencyregdocrep12015EN1-2015-81-EN-F1-1PDF

21 European Commission 2014 European Council Conclusions httpwwwconsiliumeuropaeuuedocscms_datadocspressdataenec145397pdf

Photo copy

Hung C

hung Chih Shutterstockcom

z

18

energy efficiency measures mean that the EUrsquos emissions (if all Member States achieve these targets) will be reduced by 4522 by 2030 However this higher target is by no means in line with achieving 15degC or with becoming a net-zero economy well-before mid-century23 let alone the EUrsquos equitable fair-share

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Paris Agreement marked a significant shift in global ambition on climate change and committed EU Member States and other UNFCCC parties to keeping average global temperature rise lsquowell belowrsquo 2degC and to pursuing efforts to limit it to 15degC

A few options exist that can be used to create the impetus for a revised higher level of EU ambition in 2030 The EU justifies its insufficient NDC by quoting various IPCC assessment reports Following this logic the EU should now begin using the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC as the basis for all of its actions Moreover while the Paris Agreement has been agreed the rules governing it are yet to be agreed so ensuring a strong and successful completion of these rules may help to reignite the debate on increased EU ambition In October 2018 the EUrsquos position for COP24 states that the EU will ldquocommunicate or update its NDC by 2020 taking into account the collective further efforts needed and actions undertaken by all Parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreementrdquo24 In this same position the EU highlighted the importance of the Global Stocktake in 2023 for enhancing climate action by acknowledging the Paris Agreementrsquos wider ambition cycle To round out this list of options the European Parliament recently voted to show support for an EU emissions reduction target of 55 by 203025

Typically for any ambition increase to occur all EU Heads of State and Government need to politically guide a target increase The next appropriate moment to discuss an increase is when they examine a new long-term climate and energy target and strategy for the EU which will most likely take place May 2019 This meeting would be an opportune moment for EU Member States to examine their own long-term targets thereby contributing information that would allow the bloc as a whole to explore what prospects there are for an even more ambitious NDC target in line with a new EU long-term target However no clear signal from all EU Member States has been sent that they would support such a revision of the EU NDC target Moreover the legislative right to initiate a revision lies with the European Commission a change in its cabinet is foreseen after the European Parliament elections (052019) the implications of which will only be known after it happens

Another track that can be used to pursue higher ambition is at the EU Member States level All EU Member States must develop and submit final national climate and energy plans (NECPS) by the end of 2019 outlining how a Member State will achieve their share of the EU 2030 targets With these plans Member States also have the opportunity to highlight measures that allow their domestic emissions reductions to go beyond the minimal action required to fulfil their share of the EU targets eg coal-phase out ahead of 2030 permanent cancellation of ETS allowances or higher rates of deployment of sustainable technologies ie renewable energy energy efficiency

Indeed a few EU Member States have called for increased EU ambition26 while other EU Member States have called for the EU to focus on implementing existing EU policies before looking to

22 European Commission (2018) Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Cantildeete at the High Level Stakeholder Conference The EUs Vision of a modern clean and competitive economy Available at httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_SPEECH-18-4447_enhtm 23 Climate Action Tracker (2018) EU Available at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieseu 24 Consilium (2018) Climate change Council adopts conclusions for COP24 Council of the EU Available here httpswwwconsiliumeuropaeuenpresspress-releases20181009climate-change-council-adopts-conclusions

25 European Parliament (2018) COP24 Resolution Available at httpwwweuroparleuropaeunewsenpress-room20181018IPR16550paris-agreement-meps-call-for-stepping-up-eu-climate-commitments 26 Bureau Woordvoering Kabinetsformatie (2018) Coalition agreement Trust in the future [Kingdom of the Netherlands Cabinet Coalition government] Available at httpswwwkabinetsformatie2017nldocumentenpublicaties20171010regeerakkoord-vertrouwen-in-de-toekomst_sp=97c0f122-98ad-4998-91f4-dc49cdd03a6c1507635788124

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

9

Progress in implementation Over the last three years Brazilian society has made some advances in raising awareness about the strategy for implementation of the Brazilian NDC Several studies workshops and sectoral contributions were presented to guide government decisions on the Brazilian commitments to the Paris Agreement Among the studies we highlight a document from Brazilian Forum of Climate Change (FBMC acronym in Portuguese wwwfbmccombr ) ldquoShort-term Measures for Implementation of the Brazilian NDCrdquo3

In August 2018 the document was delivered to the President Michel Temer by the FBMC The president signed an act requesting the Forum to elaborate a position on the possibilities of reaching this long-term goal by 2060 This is the first time that Brazil has signaled this goal and the first step in Brazilrsquos positioning in relation to a long-term strategy for net-zero emissions

Other important documents are also ldquoIES-Brasil - Economic and Social Implications GHG Mitigation Scenarios 2030rdquo4 a scenario study that shows the economic and social benefits of NDC compliance and the additional benefits of increased ambition of mitigation targets (this study was supported by WWF-Brazil) and ldquoOptions for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation in Key Sectors of Brazilrdquo5 a study that estimates the potential and costs of GHG emission abatement through an integrated economic-energy analysis for the period between 2012 and 2050 in the different key sectors

Potential for increased ambition Systematically and annually reduce anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases for

the whole of Brazilrsquos economy by a maximum of 1 GtCO2e in 2030

Strengthen policies and measures to achieve the zero conversion of natural habitat of all biomes by 2030 and the reduction of deforestation rates of all biomes by 50 by 2020 and by 80 by 2025 in relation to the base year 2015

Restore and reforest 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 prioritizing the restoration of liabilities in permanent preservation areas (APPs)

Extend the scale of forest management systems in the Amazon to reach 20 million hectares by 2030 through georeferencing systems for forest production and traceability of their products with a view to discouraging illegal and unsustainable practices

3 httpsdrivegooglecomfiled1Z3f2vVILNx12ciZzTNGOE72qbQC4hcrdview

4httpwwwcentroclimacoppeufrjbrimagesNoticiasdocumentosies-brasil-20301_sumario-executivo-portuguespdf

5httpswwwmcticgovbrmcticopencmscienciaSEPEDclimaopcoes_mitigacaoOpcoes_de_Mitigacao_de_Emissoes_de_Gases_de_Efeito_Estufa_GEE_em_SetoresChave_do_Brasilhtml

10

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Brazil had Presidential elections in October 2018 It is unclear whether the new government that will take office on January 1st 2019 will maintain the same level of commitment to the NDC implementation as the previous government

Recommendations Brazil has the potential to increase ambition in the NDC Recommendations to achieve this include

Create a plan to discourage investments in new fossil fuel power plants Increase investment for non-hydro renewable sources aiming at the resilience and safety of the national electricity mix

Create instruments for the improvement of financing lines for microgeneration

Develop an efficient industrial policy to promote the competitiveness of non-hydro renewables

Expand biofuel and food production in degraded pasture areas

Accelerate implementation of the Forest Code ensuring public transparency and social control

Increase recovery of degraded pastures

Strengthen technical assistance to implement sustainable practices and improvement of productivity in livestock

11

CHILE CASE STUDY Description of NDC Chile has pledged unconditional conditional (on international financial support in the form of grants) and specific land-use and land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) targets Unconditionally Chile committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of GDP to 30 below 2007 levels by 2030 This target covers the energy industrial processes and waste sectors Climate Action Tracker (2018) estimates that this will lead to GHG emissions levels of 154 above 1990 and 42 above 2010 excluding LULUCF based on current GDP projections managed by the government6 The conditional target is a 35ndash45 reduction of GHG emission intensity of GDP below 2007 levels by 2030 which according to Climate Action Tracker is equivalent to 100ndash136 above 1990 levels and 12ndash24 above 2010 GHG emissions levels excluding LULUCF Regarding LULUCF Chile pledged to sustainably manage and recover 100000 hectares (ha) of forest by 2030 and to reforest 100000 ha subject to approval of new laws Chile is one of the few countries to separate the LULUCF sector target from other emissions which increases the transparency of its proposed actions On adaptation Chile pledged to develop sectoral adaptation plans to establish specific measures and mechanisms to measure progress

Progress in implementation Since COP21 the Chilean Government has made significant progress in elaborating national plans for mitigation in the energy sector and for adaptation following a sector-specific approach including forestry and agriculture infrastructure biodiversity fisheries health and cities Moreover under the Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) initiative supported by the World 6 httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieschile

12

Bank Chile has been analysing carbon pricing options since 2015 Although the current carbon tax remains ineffective in terms of mitigation outcomes (US$5tCO2) institutional capacity was built for monitoring and reporting for the largest CO2 emissions sources at the national level In 2017 Chile issued a National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) which includes the first national-level Emissions Reduction Programme that targets reductions in the rates of land and forest degradation and also increasing forest carbon capture through reforestation It is expected that over a period of 9 years improvements in AFOLU-related policies and in management programs would contribute significantly towards Chileacutes NDC while accessing results-based-payments in the carbon market7 However a mega fire outbreak in early 2017 affecting 600000 ha of forest plantations grasslands and native forests demonstrated the vulnerability of land - both encompassed by this Programme and beyond it - to climate change

The frequency and extent of fires in the Centre and South of Chile is the greatest factor of uncertainty and could be determinant in shaping Chileacutes future GHG emissions trajectory Before 2017 the AFOLU sector was a net absorber of emissions mostly associated to the expansion of forest plantations and played a significant role in reducing the overall net balance of emissions However excluding AFOLU since 1990 net national emissions steadily rose due to increasing rate of burning of fossil fuels (IPCC energy sector) This overall trend continues today

Potential for increased ambition In the run-up to a revised NDC in 2020 the greatest potential for increased ambition lies in GHG mitigation in the energy generation sector Chiles geography political stability robust economy and energy market conditions create an exceptional environment to accelerate the transition to a low emissions economy Nevertheless this will require phase-out of coal capacity before it reaches end-of-life Coal reached 53 of installed capacity in May 20188 versus 18 of current renewable capacity In early 2018 Chile announced that it will not build any new coal-fired power plants (without CCS) and will develop a plan to phase out coal as coal-fired power permitting has stalled in recent years due to the comparatively low costs of renewable energy Current solar PV and onshore wind costs in Chile are as low as US$ 003kWh to US$ 004kWh9 However under business as usual (BAU) conditions the fact that a significant portion of coal plants have been built in recent years means that projections are for a 19 share for coal in electricity generation in 2050 This share would need to be close to zero to make Chileacutes energy sector compatible to 15degC10 Chiles Ministry of Energy is leading a roundtable to analyse the best options for the decommissioning or reconversion of coal-plant capacity but there is still the need for strong political will corporate leadership and citizen engagement to ensure that Chile can include coal-phase out as a key measure for increased NDC ambition in 2020

The National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) launched in 2017 provides a solid foundation to scale-up and integrate other land-based and nature-based mitigation and adaptation solutions particularly through forest landscape restoration This is an opportunity to reduce the severity of extensive fires Work through this strategy to increase landscape resilience will help ensure baseline conditions are maintained and take advantage of the opportunity to capture mitigation and reduced land vulnerability (adaptation) In this context a national forest restoration plan with the goal of restoring up to 1M ha coupled with watershed management measures and scaled-up plans for biodiversity protection (such as those proposed under the National Adaptation Plan for Biodiversity) would show clear signs of Chilersquos commitment Mitigation in LULUCF is still a low hanging fruit for increased NDC mitigation ambition that addresses further social and environmental needs for adaptation and sustainable development while opening the opportunity to integrate ecosystem protection for future generations

7 httpwwwconafclcmseditorwebENCCRVNota-Informativa-24pdf 8 httpgeneradorascldocumentosboletinesboletin-mercado-electrico-sector-generacion-junio-2018

9 httpswwwirenaorgpublications2018JanRenewable-power-generation-costs-in-2017

10 Climate Tracker 2018

13

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Chilersquos 2050 Energy Policy (PE2050) aims for renewable targets of at least 60 by 2035 and 70 by 2050 for electricity generation Recently the Energy Route 2018-2022 the Mitigation Plan for the Energy Sector and the Electromobility Strategy stand out as complementary policies that together should foster increased energy efficiency scaling-up small distributed energy and introducing 100 electric public transport and 40 electric private vehicle fleet by 2050 These developments represent strong signals for change however there is still the need to determine how the government will deploy measures improve enabling conditions for the private sector and ensure a participatory approach with citizens particularly in the cases where local impact is expected Furthermore there is an urgent need to accelerate adaptation response across the territory While adaptation sectoral plans are being developed at the national level it is crucial to move forward in implementation plans with strong local and regional participation

Recommendations For Chile to increase its NDC ambition it should

Include the mitigation resulting from a national agreement and plan to phase out coal-fired generation in the NDC in 2020 The government companies and local community representatives should continue working on transparent criteria to determine the timelines support and measures involved in the decommissioning of each unit

By 2020 improve the design and expand the scope of the current carbon tax to include other highly emitting sectors Establishing a gradually rising carbon price will provide more certainty to investors that play a key role in scaling up the implementation of climate-compatible projects

For successful coal phase-out the NDC should include a commitment to work with the private sector and civil society to ensure enabling policy conditions for renewable energy capacity to replace coal-fired capacity by building a reliable efficient inclusive sustainable and secure system

The NDC can also include at least a portion of mitigation results expected by 2030 through the implementation of the Electromobility Plan launched in 2018 Including electromobility in Chileacutes NDC will reflect institutional commitment on this matter which in turn will better position this emerging market in the map of investors

Introduce a significantly stronger target for forest landscape restoration (up to 1M ha) that accelerates national action and accesses international support to reduce the exposure to water scarcity and conditions leading to fires which peak LULUCF emissions (as in 2016-17) Moreover a commitment to develop land-based (including nature-based) adaptation measures is increasingly critical to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience across the country

Support increased NDC ambition in 2020 by pooling mitigation potentials by 2030 from coal phase out the expansion of renewable energy utility and distributed capacity and progress in electromobility While fires are becoming a great factor of uncertainty it is still possible and necessary to increase LULUCFAFOLU mitigation ambition Chile is already piloting results-based-payments and further reforestation and reducing land and forest degradation are critical to reduce vulnerability strengthen resilience and adaptation while also protecting essential ecosystem services biodiversity and to incentivise decentralised sustainable development

14

CHINA CASE STUDY Description of NDC China submitted its NDC to the UNFCCC in June 2015 It covers targets policies and implementation measures for both mitigation and adaptation

The key targets of the NDC to be achieved around or by 2030 are summarized as follows a) to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and make best efforts to peak earlier than that b) to lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65 from the 2005 level c) to increase the share of non-fossil fuels11 in primary energy consumption to around 20 and d) to increase the forest stock volume by around 45 billion cubic meters compared to 2005

To achieve this a series of policies and measures were proposed including for energy system industry buildings transportation and carbon sinks

As for adaptation China proposed to ldquoproactively adapt to climate change by enhancing mechanisms and capacities to effectively defend against climate change risks in key areasrdquo and to ldquoprogressively strengthen early warning and emergency response systems and disaster prevention and reduction mechanismsrdquo covering various sectors including agriculture forestry and water resources as well as in cities coastal and ecologically vulnerable areas

Progress in implementation Chinarsquos 2020 target to reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45 was reached already in 2017 and the target for forest stock volume was also over-fulfilled With Chinarsquos renewable energy industry boom the proportion of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption increased to 138 by

11 Non-fossil fuels here mean renewables and nuclear energy

Photo copy

ArtisticP

hoto Shutterstockcom

z

15

2017 These achievements also give China a solid foundation to reach its 2030 targets before that date

Coal consumption control and the transition from coal to non-fossil fuels might be the most important drivers for Chinarsquos progress While coal remains the dominant fuel in China the percentage of coal in total energy consumption decreased from 724 in 2005 to 604 in 2017 In contrast Chinarsquos renewable energy sector is booming According to REN21 China ranks as the worldrsquos leader in total renewables capacity and also in solar PV wind and geothermal heating capacity and investment in renewables capacity12 By the end of 2017 Chinarsquos total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 650GW with massive growth in wind and solar power especially It is estimated that Chinarsquos proportion of non-fossil energy sources will reach and surpass 15 by 2020

The policies issued and the actions implemented by Chinese government and other stakeholders will ensure a full fulfillment of the commitment that Chinese government has pledged to the international society Most prominently Chinarsquos international pledges and national targets are backed up by national strategies policies and detailed implementation measures with transparency and accountability mechanism

Potential for increased ambition According to a survey done by the China Carbon Forum 87 of respondents expect China to achieve the carbon emissions peak by 2030 the latest and 48 even expect it by 2025 or earlier13 Most of the research revealed that China could peak earlier than or well before 2030 and one study shows that Chinarsquos carbon emissions are likely to peak between 2020 and 202214 Given its economic restructuring potential China could achieve an emissions peak around 2023 with efforts in energy efficiency lowering the CO2 intensity in Chinarsquos GDP by just over 71 by 2030 compared to 2005 thus exceeding the NDC target of 60-6515

The transition trend from coal to renewables and other low carbon energy sources might be a great driver for China to overachieve its 2030 targets A new study released by the China National Renewable Energy Centre reveals that it is possible and beneficial for Chinarsquos fossil fuel use to peak in 2020 and decline steadily towards 203516 According to a 2015 WWF report around 84 of Chinarsquos electricity generation can be met with renewable sources by mid-century and the number is expected to be 49 in 203017

Given the above progress and scenario analyses we believe China has the potential to improve its NDC in terms of the peaking timeline share of non-fossil fuel in the primary energy consumption and carbon intensity targets showing more leadership as a torchbearer in global climate governance There is also reason to expect China to soon propose a long-term strategy for 2050 under the 15degC and 2degC scenarios

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Chinese government has shown strong political will on environmental protection in recent years through emphasizing the concept of ldquoecological civilizationrdquo Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China the environment has risen to an unprecedented status

12 REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report

13 China Carbon Forum 2018 ldquo2018 China Carbon Pricing Surveyrdquo

14 Chinadialogue 5 June 2018 ldquoRoundtable Is China still on track to reach its Paris targetsrdquo httpswwwchinadialoguenetarticleshowsingleen10653-Roundtable-Is-China-still-on-track-to-reach-its-Paris-targets- 15 Qilin Liu Qi Lei Huiming Xu etal ldquoChinarsquos energy revolution strategy into 2030rdquo in Resources Conservation and Recycling 2018 128 78-89

16 China National Renewable Energy Center 2018 ldquoChina Renewable Energy Outlook 2018rdquo

17 WWF 2015 ldquoChinarsquos Future Generation 20rdquo httpsd2ouvy59p0dg6kcloudfrontnetdownloadschina_s_future_generation_2_0_reportpdf

16

in the national development agenda The main driving force for environmental protection is the need for sustainable development including the need to fight air pollution

While US President Donald Trump has announced that the US will be pulling out of the Paris Agreement the China government has several times reaffirmed its commitment to the Agreement and the countryrsquos targets However it should also be noted that international trade tension between China and the US and the domestic challenges of slower economic growth arising from that have resulted in some conservative arguments against ambitious climate action in China18

Recommendations For China to reach its sustainable development ambition and goal of becoming an ldquoecological civilizationrdquo by mid-century and when considering the need for urgent and ambitious climate actions to avoid global warming over 15degC it should take the following actions

Revise its climate targets and commitments under the Paris Agreement by 2020 by

Bringing the timeline for emissions peaking to around 2022

Proposing a carbon emission reduction pathway for the period after the peaking to be in line with the Paris Agreementrsquos 15-2degC target

Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy to achieve a higher share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030

Accelerate its energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by

Strengthening coal consumption control halting new coal power and eliminating inefficient capacity

Reducing dispersed coal burning through efficiency improvement reduction and clean energy replacement

Accelerating power sector reform to create an environment for promoting large-scale and distributed deployment of renewable energy

Enhance international cooperation to take more leadership in addressing global climate change by

Supporting other developing countries to improve their capacity to achieving their climate targets through south-south cooperation on climate change

Shifting Chinarsquos oversea energy investments from coal to renewables to accelerate the pace and scale of the worldrsquos transition to a sustainable model of energy and development

18 Li Shuo 28 October 2018 ldquoDoes China Still Want to Be a Global Environmental Leaderrdquo httpsthediplomatcom201810does-china-still-want-to-be-a-global-environmental-leader

17

EUROPEAN UNION CASE STUDY Description of NDC The EU NDC purely focuses on mitigation outlining the agreed EU domestic emissions reduction target the implementation process and a narrative on why the EU believes its NDC is fair and ambitious This submission covers the collective contribution of the EU and the 28 Member States

The commitment is for the EU and the Member States to achieve an unconditional economy-wide ldquobinding target of an at least 40 domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990rdquo on 100 of emissions to be achieved domestically without the use of international credits19 The commitment period for the target is from January 1st 2021 (the EUrsquos second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol ends on December 31st 2020) to December 31st 2030 Additional legislation was created to facilitate the achievement of this goal including on LULUCF energy and transport The NDC holds no concrete information on any non-mitigation elements eg adaptation climate finance loss amp damage Complementing its NDC is the European Commission Communication lsquoThe Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 202020 which briefly discusses basic elements on several issues including climate finance adaptation and mitigation cycles

Progress in implementation The EUrsquos 2030 climate and energy framework21 -politically agreed in October 2014- forms the basis of its NDC The various pieces of legislation that pursue the attainment of the NDC target were agreed between 2016 and 2018 by EU Member States and European Parliament Of note based on the EUrsquos own calculations new legislative targets on renewable energy uptake and 19 European Commission (2015) Environment Council approves the EUs intended nationally determined contribution to the new global climate agreement Available at httpseceuropaeuclimanewsarticlesnews_2015030601_en 20 European Commission 2015 The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 httpeceuropaeutransparencyregdocrep12015EN1-2015-81-EN-F1-1PDF

21 European Commission 2014 European Council Conclusions httpwwwconsiliumeuropaeuuedocscms_datadocspressdataenec145397pdf

Photo copy

Hung C

hung Chih Shutterstockcom

z

18

energy efficiency measures mean that the EUrsquos emissions (if all Member States achieve these targets) will be reduced by 4522 by 2030 However this higher target is by no means in line with achieving 15degC or with becoming a net-zero economy well-before mid-century23 let alone the EUrsquos equitable fair-share

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Paris Agreement marked a significant shift in global ambition on climate change and committed EU Member States and other UNFCCC parties to keeping average global temperature rise lsquowell belowrsquo 2degC and to pursuing efforts to limit it to 15degC

A few options exist that can be used to create the impetus for a revised higher level of EU ambition in 2030 The EU justifies its insufficient NDC by quoting various IPCC assessment reports Following this logic the EU should now begin using the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC as the basis for all of its actions Moreover while the Paris Agreement has been agreed the rules governing it are yet to be agreed so ensuring a strong and successful completion of these rules may help to reignite the debate on increased EU ambition In October 2018 the EUrsquos position for COP24 states that the EU will ldquocommunicate or update its NDC by 2020 taking into account the collective further efforts needed and actions undertaken by all Parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreementrdquo24 In this same position the EU highlighted the importance of the Global Stocktake in 2023 for enhancing climate action by acknowledging the Paris Agreementrsquos wider ambition cycle To round out this list of options the European Parliament recently voted to show support for an EU emissions reduction target of 55 by 203025

Typically for any ambition increase to occur all EU Heads of State and Government need to politically guide a target increase The next appropriate moment to discuss an increase is when they examine a new long-term climate and energy target and strategy for the EU which will most likely take place May 2019 This meeting would be an opportune moment for EU Member States to examine their own long-term targets thereby contributing information that would allow the bloc as a whole to explore what prospects there are for an even more ambitious NDC target in line with a new EU long-term target However no clear signal from all EU Member States has been sent that they would support such a revision of the EU NDC target Moreover the legislative right to initiate a revision lies with the European Commission a change in its cabinet is foreseen after the European Parliament elections (052019) the implications of which will only be known after it happens

Another track that can be used to pursue higher ambition is at the EU Member States level All EU Member States must develop and submit final national climate and energy plans (NECPS) by the end of 2019 outlining how a Member State will achieve their share of the EU 2030 targets With these plans Member States also have the opportunity to highlight measures that allow their domestic emissions reductions to go beyond the minimal action required to fulfil their share of the EU targets eg coal-phase out ahead of 2030 permanent cancellation of ETS allowances or higher rates of deployment of sustainable technologies ie renewable energy energy efficiency

Indeed a few EU Member States have called for increased EU ambition26 while other EU Member States have called for the EU to focus on implementing existing EU policies before looking to

22 European Commission (2018) Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Cantildeete at the High Level Stakeholder Conference The EUs Vision of a modern clean and competitive economy Available at httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_SPEECH-18-4447_enhtm 23 Climate Action Tracker (2018) EU Available at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieseu 24 Consilium (2018) Climate change Council adopts conclusions for COP24 Council of the EU Available here httpswwwconsiliumeuropaeuenpresspress-releases20181009climate-change-council-adopts-conclusions

25 European Parliament (2018) COP24 Resolution Available at httpwwweuroparleuropaeunewsenpress-room20181018IPR16550paris-agreement-meps-call-for-stepping-up-eu-climate-commitments 26 Bureau Woordvoering Kabinetsformatie (2018) Coalition agreement Trust in the future [Kingdom of the Netherlands Cabinet Coalition government] Available at httpswwwkabinetsformatie2017nldocumentenpublicaties20171010regeerakkoord-vertrouwen-in-de-toekomst_sp=97c0f122-98ad-4998-91f4-dc49cdd03a6c1507635788124

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

10

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Brazil had Presidential elections in October 2018 It is unclear whether the new government that will take office on January 1st 2019 will maintain the same level of commitment to the NDC implementation as the previous government

Recommendations Brazil has the potential to increase ambition in the NDC Recommendations to achieve this include

Create a plan to discourage investments in new fossil fuel power plants Increase investment for non-hydro renewable sources aiming at the resilience and safety of the national electricity mix

Create instruments for the improvement of financing lines for microgeneration

Develop an efficient industrial policy to promote the competitiveness of non-hydro renewables

Expand biofuel and food production in degraded pasture areas

Accelerate implementation of the Forest Code ensuring public transparency and social control

Increase recovery of degraded pastures

Strengthen technical assistance to implement sustainable practices and improvement of productivity in livestock

11

CHILE CASE STUDY Description of NDC Chile has pledged unconditional conditional (on international financial support in the form of grants) and specific land-use and land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) targets Unconditionally Chile committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of GDP to 30 below 2007 levels by 2030 This target covers the energy industrial processes and waste sectors Climate Action Tracker (2018) estimates that this will lead to GHG emissions levels of 154 above 1990 and 42 above 2010 excluding LULUCF based on current GDP projections managed by the government6 The conditional target is a 35ndash45 reduction of GHG emission intensity of GDP below 2007 levels by 2030 which according to Climate Action Tracker is equivalent to 100ndash136 above 1990 levels and 12ndash24 above 2010 GHG emissions levels excluding LULUCF Regarding LULUCF Chile pledged to sustainably manage and recover 100000 hectares (ha) of forest by 2030 and to reforest 100000 ha subject to approval of new laws Chile is one of the few countries to separate the LULUCF sector target from other emissions which increases the transparency of its proposed actions On adaptation Chile pledged to develop sectoral adaptation plans to establish specific measures and mechanisms to measure progress

Progress in implementation Since COP21 the Chilean Government has made significant progress in elaborating national plans for mitigation in the energy sector and for adaptation following a sector-specific approach including forestry and agriculture infrastructure biodiversity fisheries health and cities Moreover under the Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) initiative supported by the World 6 httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieschile

12

Bank Chile has been analysing carbon pricing options since 2015 Although the current carbon tax remains ineffective in terms of mitigation outcomes (US$5tCO2) institutional capacity was built for monitoring and reporting for the largest CO2 emissions sources at the national level In 2017 Chile issued a National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) which includes the first national-level Emissions Reduction Programme that targets reductions in the rates of land and forest degradation and also increasing forest carbon capture through reforestation It is expected that over a period of 9 years improvements in AFOLU-related policies and in management programs would contribute significantly towards Chileacutes NDC while accessing results-based-payments in the carbon market7 However a mega fire outbreak in early 2017 affecting 600000 ha of forest plantations grasslands and native forests demonstrated the vulnerability of land - both encompassed by this Programme and beyond it - to climate change

The frequency and extent of fires in the Centre and South of Chile is the greatest factor of uncertainty and could be determinant in shaping Chileacutes future GHG emissions trajectory Before 2017 the AFOLU sector was a net absorber of emissions mostly associated to the expansion of forest plantations and played a significant role in reducing the overall net balance of emissions However excluding AFOLU since 1990 net national emissions steadily rose due to increasing rate of burning of fossil fuels (IPCC energy sector) This overall trend continues today

Potential for increased ambition In the run-up to a revised NDC in 2020 the greatest potential for increased ambition lies in GHG mitigation in the energy generation sector Chiles geography political stability robust economy and energy market conditions create an exceptional environment to accelerate the transition to a low emissions economy Nevertheless this will require phase-out of coal capacity before it reaches end-of-life Coal reached 53 of installed capacity in May 20188 versus 18 of current renewable capacity In early 2018 Chile announced that it will not build any new coal-fired power plants (without CCS) and will develop a plan to phase out coal as coal-fired power permitting has stalled in recent years due to the comparatively low costs of renewable energy Current solar PV and onshore wind costs in Chile are as low as US$ 003kWh to US$ 004kWh9 However under business as usual (BAU) conditions the fact that a significant portion of coal plants have been built in recent years means that projections are for a 19 share for coal in electricity generation in 2050 This share would need to be close to zero to make Chileacutes energy sector compatible to 15degC10 Chiles Ministry of Energy is leading a roundtable to analyse the best options for the decommissioning or reconversion of coal-plant capacity but there is still the need for strong political will corporate leadership and citizen engagement to ensure that Chile can include coal-phase out as a key measure for increased NDC ambition in 2020

The National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) launched in 2017 provides a solid foundation to scale-up and integrate other land-based and nature-based mitigation and adaptation solutions particularly through forest landscape restoration This is an opportunity to reduce the severity of extensive fires Work through this strategy to increase landscape resilience will help ensure baseline conditions are maintained and take advantage of the opportunity to capture mitigation and reduced land vulnerability (adaptation) In this context a national forest restoration plan with the goal of restoring up to 1M ha coupled with watershed management measures and scaled-up plans for biodiversity protection (such as those proposed under the National Adaptation Plan for Biodiversity) would show clear signs of Chilersquos commitment Mitigation in LULUCF is still a low hanging fruit for increased NDC mitigation ambition that addresses further social and environmental needs for adaptation and sustainable development while opening the opportunity to integrate ecosystem protection for future generations

7 httpwwwconafclcmseditorwebENCCRVNota-Informativa-24pdf 8 httpgeneradorascldocumentosboletinesboletin-mercado-electrico-sector-generacion-junio-2018

9 httpswwwirenaorgpublications2018JanRenewable-power-generation-costs-in-2017

10 Climate Tracker 2018

13

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Chilersquos 2050 Energy Policy (PE2050) aims for renewable targets of at least 60 by 2035 and 70 by 2050 for electricity generation Recently the Energy Route 2018-2022 the Mitigation Plan for the Energy Sector and the Electromobility Strategy stand out as complementary policies that together should foster increased energy efficiency scaling-up small distributed energy and introducing 100 electric public transport and 40 electric private vehicle fleet by 2050 These developments represent strong signals for change however there is still the need to determine how the government will deploy measures improve enabling conditions for the private sector and ensure a participatory approach with citizens particularly in the cases where local impact is expected Furthermore there is an urgent need to accelerate adaptation response across the territory While adaptation sectoral plans are being developed at the national level it is crucial to move forward in implementation plans with strong local and regional participation

Recommendations For Chile to increase its NDC ambition it should

Include the mitigation resulting from a national agreement and plan to phase out coal-fired generation in the NDC in 2020 The government companies and local community representatives should continue working on transparent criteria to determine the timelines support and measures involved in the decommissioning of each unit

By 2020 improve the design and expand the scope of the current carbon tax to include other highly emitting sectors Establishing a gradually rising carbon price will provide more certainty to investors that play a key role in scaling up the implementation of climate-compatible projects

For successful coal phase-out the NDC should include a commitment to work with the private sector and civil society to ensure enabling policy conditions for renewable energy capacity to replace coal-fired capacity by building a reliable efficient inclusive sustainable and secure system

The NDC can also include at least a portion of mitigation results expected by 2030 through the implementation of the Electromobility Plan launched in 2018 Including electromobility in Chileacutes NDC will reflect institutional commitment on this matter which in turn will better position this emerging market in the map of investors

Introduce a significantly stronger target for forest landscape restoration (up to 1M ha) that accelerates national action and accesses international support to reduce the exposure to water scarcity and conditions leading to fires which peak LULUCF emissions (as in 2016-17) Moreover a commitment to develop land-based (including nature-based) adaptation measures is increasingly critical to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience across the country

Support increased NDC ambition in 2020 by pooling mitigation potentials by 2030 from coal phase out the expansion of renewable energy utility and distributed capacity and progress in electromobility While fires are becoming a great factor of uncertainty it is still possible and necessary to increase LULUCFAFOLU mitigation ambition Chile is already piloting results-based-payments and further reforestation and reducing land and forest degradation are critical to reduce vulnerability strengthen resilience and adaptation while also protecting essential ecosystem services biodiversity and to incentivise decentralised sustainable development

14

CHINA CASE STUDY Description of NDC China submitted its NDC to the UNFCCC in June 2015 It covers targets policies and implementation measures for both mitigation and adaptation

The key targets of the NDC to be achieved around or by 2030 are summarized as follows a) to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and make best efforts to peak earlier than that b) to lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65 from the 2005 level c) to increase the share of non-fossil fuels11 in primary energy consumption to around 20 and d) to increase the forest stock volume by around 45 billion cubic meters compared to 2005

To achieve this a series of policies and measures were proposed including for energy system industry buildings transportation and carbon sinks

As for adaptation China proposed to ldquoproactively adapt to climate change by enhancing mechanisms and capacities to effectively defend against climate change risks in key areasrdquo and to ldquoprogressively strengthen early warning and emergency response systems and disaster prevention and reduction mechanismsrdquo covering various sectors including agriculture forestry and water resources as well as in cities coastal and ecologically vulnerable areas

Progress in implementation Chinarsquos 2020 target to reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45 was reached already in 2017 and the target for forest stock volume was also over-fulfilled With Chinarsquos renewable energy industry boom the proportion of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption increased to 138 by

11 Non-fossil fuels here mean renewables and nuclear energy

Photo copy

ArtisticP

hoto Shutterstockcom

z

15

2017 These achievements also give China a solid foundation to reach its 2030 targets before that date

Coal consumption control and the transition from coal to non-fossil fuels might be the most important drivers for Chinarsquos progress While coal remains the dominant fuel in China the percentage of coal in total energy consumption decreased from 724 in 2005 to 604 in 2017 In contrast Chinarsquos renewable energy sector is booming According to REN21 China ranks as the worldrsquos leader in total renewables capacity and also in solar PV wind and geothermal heating capacity and investment in renewables capacity12 By the end of 2017 Chinarsquos total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 650GW with massive growth in wind and solar power especially It is estimated that Chinarsquos proportion of non-fossil energy sources will reach and surpass 15 by 2020

The policies issued and the actions implemented by Chinese government and other stakeholders will ensure a full fulfillment of the commitment that Chinese government has pledged to the international society Most prominently Chinarsquos international pledges and national targets are backed up by national strategies policies and detailed implementation measures with transparency and accountability mechanism

Potential for increased ambition According to a survey done by the China Carbon Forum 87 of respondents expect China to achieve the carbon emissions peak by 2030 the latest and 48 even expect it by 2025 or earlier13 Most of the research revealed that China could peak earlier than or well before 2030 and one study shows that Chinarsquos carbon emissions are likely to peak between 2020 and 202214 Given its economic restructuring potential China could achieve an emissions peak around 2023 with efforts in energy efficiency lowering the CO2 intensity in Chinarsquos GDP by just over 71 by 2030 compared to 2005 thus exceeding the NDC target of 60-6515

The transition trend from coal to renewables and other low carbon energy sources might be a great driver for China to overachieve its 2030 targets A new study released by the China National Renewable Energy Centre reveals that it is possible and beneficial for Chinarsquos fossil fuel use to peak in 2020 and decline steadily towards 203516 According to a 2015 WWF report around 84 of Chinarsquos electricity generation can be met with renewable sources by mid-century and the number is expected to be 49 in 203017

Given the above progress and scenario analyses we believe China has the potential to improve its NDC in terms of the peaking timeline share of non-fossil fuel in the primary energy consumption and carbon intensity targets showing more leadership as a torchbearer in global climate governance There is also reason to expect China to soon propose a long-term strategy for 2050 under the 15degC and 2degC scenarios

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Chinese government has shown strong political will on environmental protection in recent years through emphasizing the concept of ldquoecological civilizationrdquo Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China the environment has risen to an unprecedented status

12 REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report

13 China Carbon Forum 2018 ldquo2018 China Carbon Pricing Surveyrdquo

14 Chinadialogue 5 June 2018 ldquoRoundtable Is China still on track to reach its Paris targetsrdquo httpswwwchinadialoguenetarticleshowsingleen10653-Roundtable-Is-China-still-on-track-to-reach-its-Paris-targets- 15 Qilin Liu Qi Lei Huiming Xu etal ldquoChinarsquos energy revolution strategy into 2030rdquo in Resources Conservation and Recycling 2018 128 78-89

16 China National Renewable Energy Center 2018 ldquoChina Renewable Energy Outlook 2018rdquo

17 WWF 2015 ldquoChinarsquos Future Generation 20rdquo httpsd2ouvy59p0dg6kcloudfrontnetdownloadschina_s_future_generation_2_0_reportpdf

16

in the national development agenda The main driving force for environmental protection is the need for sustainable development including the need to fight air pollution

While US President Donald Trump has announced that the US will be pulling out of the Paris Agreement the China government has several times reaffirmed its commitment to the Agreement and the countryrsquos targets However it should also be noted that international trade tension between China and the US and the domestic challenges of slower economic growth arising from that have resulted in some conservative arguments against ambitious climate action in China18

Recommendations For China to reach its sustainable development ambition and goal of becoming an ldquoecological civilizationrdquo by mid-century and when considering the need for urgent and ambitious climate actions to avoid global warming over 15degC it should take the following actions

Revise its climate targets and commitments under the Paris Agreement by 2020 by

Bringing the timeline for emissions peaking to around 2022

Proposing a carbon emission reduction pathway for the period after the peaking to be in line with the Paris Agreementrsquos 15-2degC target

Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy to achieve a higher share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030

Accelerate its energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by

Strengthening coal consumption control halting new coal power and eliminating inefficient capacity

Reducing dispersed coal burning through efficiency improvement reduction and clean energy replacement

Accelerating power sector reform to create an environment for promoting large-scale and distributed deployment of renewable energy

Enhance international cooperation to take more leadership in addressing global climate change by

Supporting other developing countries to improve their capacity to achieving their climate targets through south-south cooperation on climate change

Shifting Chinarsquos oversea energy investments from coal to renewables to accelerate the pace and scale of the worldrsquos transition to a sustainable model of energy and development

18 Li Shuo 28 October 2018 ldquoDoes China Still Want to Be a Global Environmental Leaderrdquo httpsthediplomatcom201810does-china-still-want-to-be-a-global-environmental-leader

17

EUROPEAN UNION CASE STUDY Description of NDC The EU NDC purely focuses on mitigation outlining the agreed EU domestic emissions reduction target the implementation process and a narrative on why the EU believes its NDC is fair and ambitious This submission covers the collective contribution of the EU and the 28 Member States

The commitment is for the EU and the Member States to achieve an unconditional economy-wide ldquobinding target of an at least 40 domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990rdquo on 100 of emissions to be achieved domestically without the use of international credits19 The commitment period for the target is from January 1st 2021 (the EUrsquos second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol ends on December 31st 2020) to December 31st 2030 Additional legislation was created to facilitate the achievement of this goal including on LULUCF energy and transport The NDC holds no concrete information on any non-mitigation elements eg adaptation climate finance loss amp damage Complementing its NDC is the European Commission Communication lsquoThe Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 202020 which briefly discusses basic elements on several issues including climate finance adaptation and mitigation cycles

Progress in implementation The EUrsquos 2030 climate and energy framework21 -politically agreed in October 2014- forms the basis of its NDC The various pieces of legislation that pursue the attainment of the NDC target were agreed between 2016 and 2018 by EU Member States and European Parliament Of note based on the EUrsquos own calculations new legislative targets on renewable energy uptake and 19 European Commission (2015) Environment Council approves the EUs intended nationally determined contribution to the new global climate agreement Available at httpseceuropaeuclimanewsarticlesnews_2015030601_en 20 European Commission 2015 The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 httpeceuropaeutransparencyregdocrep12015EN1-2015-81-EN-F1-1PDF

21 European Commission 2014 European Council Conclusions httpwwwconsiliumeuropaeuuedocscms_datadocspressdataenec145397pdf

Photo copy

Hung C

hung Chih Shutterstockcom

z

18

energy efficiency measures mean that the EUrsquos emissions (if all Member States achieve these targets) will be reduced by 4522 by 2030 However this higher target is by no means in line with achieving 15degC or with becoming a net-zero economy well-before mid-century23 let alone the EUrsquos equitable fair-share

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Paris Agreement marked a significant shift in global ambition on climate change and committed EU Member States and other UNFCCC parties to keeping average global temperature rise lsquowell belowrsquo 2degC and to pursuing efforts to limit it to 15degC

A few options exist that can be used to create the impetus for a revised higher level of EU ambition in 2030 The EU justifies its insufficient NDC by quoting various IPCC assessment reports Following this logic the EU should now begin using the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC as the basis for all of its actions Moreover while the Paris Agreement has been agreed the rules governing it are yet to be agreed so ensuring a strong and successful completion of these rules may help to reignite the debate on increased EU ambition In October 2018 the EUrsquos position for COP24 states that the EU will ldquocommunicate or update its NDC by 2020 taking into account the collective further efforts needed and actions undertaken by all Parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreementrdquo24 In this same position the EU highlighted the importance of the Global Stocktake in 2023 for enhancing climate action by acknowledging the Paris Agreementrsquos wider ambition cycle To round out this list of options the European Parliament recently voted to show support for an EU emissions reduction target of 55 by 203025

Typically for any ambition increase to occur all EU Heads of State and Government need to politically guide a target increase The next appropriate moment to discuss an increase is when they examine a new long-term climate and energy target and strategy for the EU which will most likely take place May 2019 This meeting would be an opportune moment for EU Member States to examine their own long-term targets thereby contributing information that would allow the bloc as a whole to explore what prospects there are for an even more ambitious NDC target in line with a new EU long-term target However no clear signal from all EU Member States has been sent that they would support such a revision of the EU NDC target Moreover the legislative right to initiate a revision lies with the European Commission a change in its cabinet is foreseen after the European Parliament elections (052019) the implications of which will only be known after it happens

Another track that can be used to pursue higher ambition is at the EU Member States level All EU Member States must develop and submit final national climate and energy plans (NECPS) by the end of 2019 outlining how a Member State will achieve their share of the EU 2030 targets With these plans Member States also have the opportunity to highlight measures that allow their domestic emissions reductions to go beyond the minimal action required to fulfil their share of the EU targets eg coal-phase out ahead of 2030 permanent cancellation of ETS allowances or higher rates of deployment of sustainable technologies ie renewable energy energy efficiency

Indeed a few EU Member States have called for increased EU ambition26 while other EU Member States have called for the EU to focus on implementing existing EU policies before looking to

22 European Commission (2018) Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Cantildeete at the High Level Stakeholder Conference The EUs Vision of a modern clean and competitive economy Available at httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_SPEECH-18-4447_enhtm 23 Climate Action Tracker (2018) EU Available at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieseu 24 Consilium (2018) Climate change Council adopts conclusions for COP24 Council of the EU Available here httpswwwconsiliumeuropaeuenpresspress-releases20181009climate-change-council-adopts-conclusions

25 European Parliament (2018) COP24 Resolution Available at httpwwweuroparleuropaeunewsenpress-room20181018IPR16550paris-agreement-meps-call-for-stepping-up-eu-climate-commitments 26 Bureau Woordvoering Kabinetsformatie (2018) Coalition agreement Trust in the future [Kingdom of the Netherlands Cabinet Coalition government] Available at httpswwwkabinetsformatie2017nldocumentenpublicaties20171010regeerakkoord-vertrouwen-in-de-toekomst_sp=97c0f122-98ad-4998-91f4-dc49cdd03a6c1507635788124

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

11

CHILE CASE STUDY Description of NDC Chile has pledged unconditional conditional (on international financial support in the form of grants) and specific land-use and land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) targets Unconditionally Chile committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of GDP to 30 below 2007 levels by 2030 This target covers the energy industrial processes and waste sectors Climate Action Tracker (2018) estimates that this will lead to GHG emissions levels of 154 above 1990 and 42 above 2010 excluding LULUCF based on current GDP projections managed by the government6 The conditional target is a 35ndash45 reduction of GHG emission intensity of GDP below 2007 levels by 2030 which according to Climate Action Tracker is equivalent to 100ndash136 above 1990 levels and 12ndash24 above 2010 GHG emissions levels excluding LULUCF Regarding LULUCF Chile pledged to sustainably manage and recover 100000 hectares (ha) of forest by 2030 and to reforest 100000 ha subject to approval of new laws Chile is one of the few countries to separate the LULUCF sector target from other emissions which increases the transparency of its proposed actions On adaptation Chile pledged to develop sectoral adaptation plans to establish specific measures and mechanisms to measure progress

Progress in implementation Since COP21 the Chilean Government has made significant progress in elaborating national plans for mitigation in the energy sector and for adaptation following a sector-specific approach including forestry and agriculture infrastructure biodiversity fisheries health and cities Moreover under the Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) initiative supported by the World 6 httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieschile

12

Bank Chile has been analysing carbon pricing options since 2015 Although the current carbon tax remains ineffective in terms of mitigation outcomes (US$5tCO2) institutional capacity was built for monitoring and reporting for the largest CO2 emissions sources at the national level In 2017 Chile issued a National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) which includes the first national-level Emissions Reduction Programme that targets reductions in the rates of land and forest degradation and also increasing forest carbon capture through reforestation It is expected that over a period of 9 years improvements in AFOLU-related policies and in management programs would contribute significantly towards Chileacutes NDC while accessing results-based-payments in the carbon market7 However a mega fire outbreak in early 2017 affecting 600000 ha of forest plantations grasslands and native forests demonstrated the vulnerability of land - both encompassed by this Programme and beyond it - to climate change

The frequency and extent of fires in the Centre and South of Chile is the greatest factor of uncertainty and could be determinant in shaping Chileacutes future GHG emissions trajectory Before 2017 the AFOLU sector was a net absorber of emissions mostly associated to the expansion of forest plantations and played a significant role in reducing the overall net balance of emissions However excluding AFOLU since 1990 net national emissions steadily rose due to increasing rate of burning of fossil fuels (IPCC energy sector) This overall trend continues today

Potential for increased ambition In the run-up to a revised NDC in 2020 the greatest potential for increased ambition lies in GHG mitigation in the energy generation sector Chiles geography political stability robust economy and energy market conditions create an exceptional environment to accelerate the transition to a low emissions economy Nevertheless this will require phase-out of coal capacity before it reaches end-of-life Coal reached 53 of installed capacity in May 20188 versus 18 of current renewable capacity In early 2018 Chile announced that it will not build any new coal-fired power plants (without CCS) and will develop a plan to phase out coal as coal-fired power permitting has stalled in recent years due to the comparatively low costs of renewable energy Current solar PV and onshore wind costs in Chile are as low as US$ 003kWh to US$ 004kWh9 However under business as usual (BAU) conditions the fact that a significant portion of coal plants have been built in recent years means that projections are for a 19 share for coal in electricity generation in 2050 This share would need to be close to zero to make Chileacutes energy sector compatible to 15degC10 Chiles Ministry of Energy is leading a roundtable to analyse the best options for the decommissioning or reconversion of coal-plant capacity but there is still the need for strong political will corporate leadership and citizen engagement to ensure that Chile can include coal-phase out as a key measure for increased NDC ambition in 2020

The National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) launched in 2017 provides a solid foundation to scale-up and integrate other land-based and nature-based mitigation and adaptation solutions particularly through forest landscape restoration This is an opportunity to reduce the severity of extensive fires Work through this strategy to increase landscape resilience will help ensure baseline conditions are maintained and take advantage of the opportunity to capture mitigation and reduced land vulnerability (adaptation) In this context a national forest restoration plan with the goal of restoring up to 1M ha coupled with watershed management measures and scaled-up plans for biodiversity protection (such as those proposed under the National Adaptation Plan for Biodiversity) would show clear signs of Chilersquos commitment Mitigation in LULUCF is still a low hanging fruit for increased NDC mitigation ambition that addresses further social and environmental needs for adaptation and sustainable development while opening the opportunity to integrate ecosystem protection for future generations

7 httpwwwconafclcmseditorwebENCCRVNota-Informativa-24pdf 8 httpgeneradorascldocumentosboletinesboletin-mercado-electrico-sector-generacion-junio-2018

9 httpswwwirenaorgpublications2018JanRenewable-power-generation-costs-in-2017

10 Climate Tracker 2018

13

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Chilersquos 2050 Energy Policy (PE2050) aims for renewable targets of at least 60 by 2035 and 70 by 2050 for electricity generation Recently the Energy Route 2018-2022 the Mitigation Plan for the Energy Sector and the Electromobility Strategy stand out as complementary policies that together should foster increased energy efficiency scaling-up small distributed energy and introducing 100 electric public transport and 40 electric private vehicle fleet by 2050 These developments represent strong signals for change however there is still the need to determine how the government will deploy measures improve enabling conditions for the private sector and ensure a participatory approach with citizens particularly in the cases where local impact is expected Furthermore there is an urgent need to accelerate adaptation response across the territory While adaptation sectoral plans are being developed at the national level it is crucial to move forward in implementation plans with strong local and regional participation

Recommendations For Chile to increase its NDC ambition it should

Include the mitigation resulting from a national agreement and plan to phase out coal-fired generation in the NDC in 2020 The government companies and local community representatives should continue working on transparent criteria to determine the timelines support and measures involved in the decommissioning of each unit

By 2020 improve the design and expand the scope of the current carbon tax to include other highly emitting sectors Establishing a gradually rising carbon price will provide more certainty to investors that play a key role in scaling up the implementation of climate-compatible projects

For successful coal phase-out the NDC should include a commitment to work with the private sector and civil society to ensure enabling policy conditions for renewable energy capacity to replace coal-fired capacity by building a reliable efficient inclusive sustainable and secure system

The NDC can also include at least a portion of mitigation results expected by 2030 through the implementation of the Electromobility Plan launched in 2018 Including electromobility in Chileacutes NDC will reflect institutional commitment on this matter which in turn will better position this emerging market in the map of investors

Introduce a significantly stronger target for forest landscape restoration (up to 1M ha) that accelerates national action and accesses international support to reduce the exposure to water scarcity and conditions leading to fires which peak LULUCF emissions (as in 2016-17) Moreover a commitment to develop land-based (including nature-based) adaptation measures is increasingly critical to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience across the country

Support increased NDC ambition in 2020 by pooling mitigation potentials by 2030 from coal phase out the expansion of renewable energy utility and distributed capacity and progress in electromobility While fires are becoming a great factor of uncertainty it is still possible and necessary to increase LULUCFAFOLU mitigation ambition Chile is already piloting results-based-payments and further reforestation and reducing land and forest degradation are critical to reduce vulnerability strengthen resilience and adaptation while also protecting essential ecosystem services biodiversity and to incentivise decentralised sustainable development

14

CHINA CASE STUDY Description of NDC China submitted its NDC to the UNFCCC in June 2015 It covers targets policies and implementation measures for both mitigation and adaptation

The key targets of the NDC to be achieved around or by 2030 are summarized as follows a) to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and make best efforts to peak earlier than that b) to lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65 from the 2005 level c) to increase the share of non-fossil fuels11 in primary energy consumption to around 20 and d) to increase the forest stock volume by around 45 billion cubic meters compared to 2005

To achieve this a series of policies and measures were proposed including for energy system industry buildings transportation and carbon sinks

As for adaptation China proposed to ldquoproactively adapt to climate change by enhancing mechanisms and capacities to effectively defend against climate change risks in key areasrdquo and to ldquoprogressively strengthen early warning and emergency response systems and disaster prevention and reduction mechanismsrdquo covering various sectors including agriculture forestry and water resources as well as in cities coastal and ecologically vulnerable areas

Progress in implementation Chinarsquos 2020 target to reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45 was reached already in 2017 and the target for forest stock volume was also over-fulfilled With Chinarsquos renewable energy industry boom the proportion of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption increased to 138 by

11 Non-fossil fuels here mean renewables and nuclear energy

Photo copy

ArtisticP

hoto Shutterstockcom

z

15

2017 These achievements also give China a solid foundation to reach its 2030 targets before that date

Coal consumption control and the transition from coal to non-fossil fuels might be the most important drivers for Chinarsquos progress While coal remains the dominant fuel in China the percentage of coal in total energy consumption decreased from 724 in 2005 to 604 in 2017 In contrast Chinarsquos renewable energy sector is booming According to REN21 China ranks as the worldrsquos leader in total renewables capacity and also in solar PV wind and geothermal heating capacity and investment in renewables capacity12 By the end of 2017 Chinarsquos total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 650GW with massive growth in wind and solar power especially It is estimated that Chinarsquos proportion of non-fossil energy sources will reach and surpass 15 by 2020

The policies issued and the actions implemented by Chinese government and other stakeholders will ensure a full fulfillment of the commitment that Chinese government has pledged to the international society Most prominently Chinarsquos international pledges and national targets are backed up by national strategies policies and detailed implementation measures with transparency and accountability mechanism

Potential for increased ambition According to a survey done by the China Carbon Forum 87 of respondents expect China to achieve the carbon emissions peak by 2030 the latest and 48 even expect it by 2025 or earlier13 Most of the research revealed that China could peak earlier than or well before 2030 and one study shows that Chinarsquos carbon emissions are likely to peak between 2020 and 202214 Given its economic restructuring potential China could achieve an emissions peak around 2023 with efforts in energy efficiency lowering the CO2 intensity in Chinarsquos GDP by just over 71 by 2030 compared to 2005 thus exceeding the NDC target of 60-6515

The transition trend from coal to renewables and other low carbon energy sources might be a great driver for China to overachieve its 2030 targets A new study released by the China National Renewable Energy Centre reveals that it is possible and beneficial for Chinarsquos fossil fuel use to peak in 2020 and decline steadily towards 203516 According to a 2015 WWF report around 84 of Chinarsquos electricity generation can be met with renewable sources by mid-century and the number is expected to be 49 in 203017

Given the above progress and scenario analyses we believe China has the potential to improve its NDC in terms of the peaking timeline share of non-fossil fuel in the primary energy consumption and carbon intensity targets showing more leadership as a torchbearer in global climate governance There is also reason to expect China to soon propose a long-term strategy for 2050 under the 15degC and 2degC scenarios

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Chinese government has shown strong political will on environmental protection in recent years through emphasizing the concept of ldquoecological civilizationrdquo Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China the environment has risen to an unprecedented status

12 REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report

13 China Carbon Forum 2018 ldquo2018 China Carbon Pricing Surveyrdquo

14 Chinadialogue 5 June 2018 ldquoRoundtable Is China still on track to reach its Paris targetsrdquo httpswwwchinadialoguenetarticleshowsingleen10653-Roundtable-Is-China-still-on-track-to-reach-its-Paris-targets- 15 Qilin Liu Qi Lei Huiming Xu etal ldquoChinarsquos energy revolution strategy into 2030rdquo in Resources Conservation and Recycling 2018 128 78-89

16 China National Renewable Energy Center 2018 ldquoChina Renewable Energy Outlook 2018rdquo

17 WWF 2015 ldquoChinarsquos Future Generation 20rdquo httpsd2ouvy59p0dg6kcloudfrontnetdownloadschina_s_future_generation_2_0_reportpdf

16

in the national development agenda The main driving force for environmental protection is the need for sustainable development including the need to fight air pollution

While US President Donald Trump has announced that the US will be pulling out of the Paris Agreement the China government has several times reaffirmed its commitment to the Agreement and the countryrsquos targets However it should also be noted that international trade tension between China and the US and the domestic challenges of slower economic growth arising from that have resulted in some conservative arguments against ambitious climate action in China18

Recommendations For China to reach its sustainable development ambition and goal of becoming an ldquoecological civilizationrdquo by mid-century and when considering the need for urgent and ambitious climate actions to avoid global warming over 15degC it should take the following actions

Revise its climate targets and commitments under the Paris Agreement by 2020 by

Bringing the timeline for emissions peaking to around 2022

Proposing a carbon emission reduction pathway for the period after the peaking to be in line with the Paris Agreementrsquos 15-2degC target

Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy to achieve a higher share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030

Accelerate its energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by

Strengthening coal consumption control halting new coal power and eliminating inefficient capacity

Reducing dispersed coal burning through efficiency improvement reduction and clean energy replacement

Accelerating power sector reform to create an environment for promoting large-scale and distributed deployment of renewable energy

Enhance international cooperation to take more leadership in addressing global climate change by

Supporting other developing countries to improve their capacity to achieving their climate targets through south-south cooperation on climate change

Shifting Chinarsquos oversea energy investments from coal to renewables to accelerate the pace and scale of the worldrsquos transition to a sustainable model of energy and development

18 Li Shuo 28 October 2018 ldquoDoes China Still Want to Be a Global Environmental Leaderrdquo httpsthediplomatcom201810does-china-still-want-to-be-a-global-environmental-leader

17

EUROPEAN UNION CASE STUDY Description of NDC The EU NDC purely focuses on mitigation outlining the agreed EU domestic emissions reduction target the implementation process and a narrative on why the EU believes its NDC is fair and ambitious This submission covers the collective contribution of the EU and the 28 Member States

The commitment is for the EU and the Member States to achieve an unconditional economy-wide ldquobinding target of an at least 40 domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990rdquo on 100 of emissions to be achieved domestically without the use of international credits19 The commitment period for the target is from January 1st 2021 (the EUrsquos second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol ends on December 31st 2020) to December 31st 2030 Additional legislation was created to facilitate the achievement of this goal including on LULUCF energy and transport The NDC holds no concrete information on any non-mitigation elements eg adaptation climate finance loss amp damage Complementing its NDC is the European Commission Communication lsquoThe Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 202020 which briefly discusses basic elements on several issues including climate finance adaptation and mitigation cycles

Progress in implementation The EUrsquos 2030 climate and energy framework21 -politically agreed in October 2014- forms the basis of its NDC The various pieces of legislation that pursue the attainment of the NDC target were agreed between 2016 and 2018 by EU Member States and European Parliament Of note based on the EUrsquos own calculations new legislative targets on renewable energy uptake and 19 European Commission (2015) Environment Council approves the EUs intended nationally determined contribution to the new global climate agreement Available at httpseceuropaeuclimanewsarticlesnews_2015030601_en 20 European Commission 2015 The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 httpeceuropaeutransparencyregdocrep12015EN1-2015-81-EN-F1-1PDF

21 European Commission 2014 European Council Conclusions httpwwwconsiliumeuropaeuuedocscms_datadocspressdataenec145397pdf

Photo copy

Hung C

hung Chih Shutterstockcom

z

18

energy efficiency measures mean that the EUrsquos emissions (if all Member States achieve these targets) will be reduced by 4522 by 2030 However this higher target is by no means in line with achieving 15degC or with becoming a net-zero economy well-before mid-century23 let alone the EUrsquos equitable fair-share

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Paris Agreement marked a significant shift in global ambition on climate change and committed EU Member States and other UNFCCC parties to keeping average global temperature rise lsquowell belowrsquo 2degC and to pursuing efforts to limit it to 15degC

A few options exist that can be used to create the impetus for a revised higher level of EU ambition in 2030 The EU justifies its insufficient NDC by quoting various IPCC assessment reports Following this logic the EU should now begin using the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC as the basis for all of its actions Moreover while the Paris Agreement has been agreed the rules governing it are yet to be agreed so ensuring a strong and successful completion of these rules may help to reignite the debate on increased EU ambition In October 2018 the EUrsquos position for COP24 states that the EU will ldquocommunicate or update its NDC by 2020 taking into account the collective further efforts needed and actions undertaken by all Parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreementrdquo24 In this same position the EU highlighted the importance of the Global Stocktake in 2023 for enhancing climate action by acknowledging the Paris Agreementrsquos wider ambition cycle To round out this list of options the European Parliament recently voted to show support for an EU emissions reduction target of 55 by 203025

Typically for any ambition increase to occur all EU Heads of State and Government need to politically guide a target increase The next appropriate moment to discuss an increase is when they examine a new long-term climate and energy target and strategy for the EU which will most likely take place May 2019 This meeting would be an opportune moment for EU Member States to examine their own long-term targets thereby contributing information that would allow the bloc as a whole to explore what prospects there are for an even more ambitious NDC target in line with a new EU long-term target However no clear signal from all EU Member States has been sent that they would support such a revision of the EU NDC target Moreover the legislative right to initiate a revision lies with the European Commission a change in its cabinet is foreseen after the European Parliament elections (052019) the implications of which will only be known after it happens

Another track that can be used to pursue higher ambition is at the EU Member States level All EU Member States must develop and submit final national climate and energy plans (NECPS) by the end of 2019 outlining how a Member State will achieve their share of the EU 2030 targets With these plans Member States also have the opportunity to highlight measures that allow their domestic emissions reductions to go beyond the minimal action required to fulfil their share of the EU targets eg coal-phase out ahead of 2030 permanent cancellation of ETS allowances or higher rates of deployment of sustainable technologies ie renewable energy energy efficiency

Indeed a few EU Member States have called for increased EU ambition26 while other EU Member States have called for the EU to focus on implementing existing EU policies before looking to

22 European Commission (2018) Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Cantildeete at the High Level Stakeholder Conference The EUs Vision of a modern clean and competitive economy Available at httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_SPEECH-18-4447_enhtm 23 Climate Action Tracker (2018) EU Available at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieseu 24 Consilium (2018) Climate change Council adopts conclusions for COP24 Council of the EU Available here httpswwwconsiliumeuropaeuenpresspress-releases20181009climate-change-council-adopts-conclusions

25 European Parliament (2018) COP24 Resolution Available at httpwwweuroparleuropaeunewsenpress-room20181018IPR16550paris-agreement-meps-call-for-stepping-up-eu-climate-commitments 26 Bureau Woordvoering Kabinetsformatie (2018) Coalition agreement Trust in the future [Kingdom of the Netherlands Cabinet Coalition government] Available at httpswwwkabinetsformatie2017nldocumentenpublicaties20171010regeerakkoord-vertrouwen-in-de-toekomst_sp=97c0f122-98ad-4998-91f4-dc49cdd03a6c1507635788124

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

12

Bank Chile has been analysing carbon pricing options since 2015 Although the current carbon tax remains ineffective in terms of mitigation outcomes (US$5tCO2) institutional capacity was built for monitoring and reporting for the largest CO2 emissions sources at the national level In 2017 Chile issued a National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) which includes the first national-level Emissions Reduction Programme that targets reductions in the rates of land and forest degradation and also increasing forest carbon capture through reforestation It is expected that over a period of 9 years improvements in AFOLU-related policies and in management programs would contribute significantly towards Chileacutes NDC while accessing results-based-payments in the carbon market7 However a mega fire outbreak in early 2017 affecting 600000 ha of forest plantations grasslands and native forests demonstrated the vulnerability of land - both encompassed by this Programme and beyond it - to climate change

The frequency and extent of fires in the Centre and South of Chile is the greatest factor of uncertainty and could be determinant in shaping Chileacutes future GHG emissions trajectory Before 2017 the AFOLU sector was a net absorber of emissions mostly associated to the expansion of forest plantations and played a significant role in reducing the overall net balance of emissions However excluding AFOLU since 1990 net national emissions steadily rose due to increasing rate of burning of fossil fuels (IPCC energy sector) This overall trend continues today

Potential for increased ambition In the run-up to a revised NDC in 2020 the greatest potential for increased ambition lies in GHG mitigation in the energy generation sector Chiles geography political stability robust economy and energy market conditions create an exceptional environment to accelerate the transition to a low emissions economy Nevertheless this will require phase-out of coal capacity before it reaches end-of-life Coal reached 53 of installed capacity in May 20188 versus 18 of current renewable capacity In early 2018 Chile announced that it will not build any new coal-fired power plants (without CCS) and will develop a plan to phase out coal as coal-fired power permitting has stalled in recent years due to the comparatively low costs of renewable energy Current solar PV and onshore wind costs in Chile are as low as US$ 003kWh to US$ 004kWh9 However under business as usual (BAU) conditions the fact that a significant portion of coal plants have been built in recent years means that projections are for a 19 share for coal in electricity generation in 2050 This share would need to be close to zero to make Chileacutes energy sector compatible to 15degC10 Chiles Ministry of Energy is leading a roundtable to analyse the best options for the decommissioning or reconversion of coal-plant capacity but there is still the need for strong political will corporate leadership and citizen engagement to ensure that Chile can include coal-phase out as a key measure for increased NDC ambition in 2020

The National Strategy for Climate Change and Vegetation Resources (ENCCRV) launched in 2017 provides a solid foundation to scale-up and integrate other land-based and nature-based mitigation and adaptation solutions particularly through forest landscape restoration This is an opportunity to reduce the severity of extensive fires Work through this strategy to increase landscape resilience will help ensure baseline conditions are maintained and take advantage of the opportunity to capture mitigation and reduced land vulnerability (adaptation) In this context a national forest restoration plan with the goal of restoring up to 1M ha coupled with watershed management measures and scaled-up plans for biodiversity protection (such as those proposed under the National Adaptation Plan for Biodiversity) would show clear signs of Chilersquos commitment Mitigation in LULUCF is still a low hanging fruit for increased NDC mitigation ambition that addresses further social and environmental needs for adaptation and sustainable development while opening the opportunity to integrate ecosystem protection for future generations

7 httpwwwconafclcmseditorwebENCCRVNota-Informativa-24pdf 8 httpgeneradorascldocumentosboletinesboletin-mercado-electrico-sector-generacion-junio-2018

9 httpswwwirenaorgpublications2018JanRenewable-power-generation-costs-in-2017

10 Climate Tracker 2018

13

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Chilersquos 2050 Energy Policy (PE2050) aims for renewable targets of at least 60 by 2035 and 70 by 2050 for electricity generation Recently the Energy Route 2018-2022 the Mitigation Plan for the Energy Sector and the Electromobility Strategy stand out as complementary policies that together should foster increased energy efficiency scaling-up small distributed energy and introducing 100 electric public transport and 40 electric private vehicle fleet by 2050 These developments represent strong signals for change however there is still the need to determine how the government will deploy measures improve enabling conditions for the private sector and ensure a participatory approach with citizens particularly in the cases where local impact is expected Furthermore there is an urgent need to accelerate adaptation response across the territory While adaptation sectoral plans are being developed at the national level it is crucial to move forward in implementation plans with strong local and regional participation

Recommendations For Chile to increase its NDC ambition it should

Include the mitigation resulting from a national agreement and plan to phase out coal-fired generation in the NDC in 2020 The government companies and local community representatives should continue working on transparent criteria to determine the timelines support and measures involved in the decommissioning of each unit

By 2020 improve the design and expand the scope of the current carbon tax to include other highly emitting sectors Establishing a gradually rising carbon price will provide more certainty to investors that play a key role in scaling up the implementation of climate-compatible projects

For successful coal phase-out the NDC should include a commitment to work with the private sector and civil society to ensure enabling policy conditions for renewable energy capacity to replace coal-fired capacity by building a reliable efficient inclusive sustainable and secure system

The NDC can also include at least a portion of mitigation results expected by 2030 through the implementation of the Electromobility Plan launched in 2018 Including electromobility in Chileacutes NDC will reflect institutional commitment on this matter which in turn will better position this emerging market in the map of investors

Introduce a significantly stronger target for forest landscape restoration (up to 1M ha) that accelerates national action and accesses international support to reduce the exposure to water scarcity and conditions leading to fires which peak LULUCF emissions (as in 2016-17) Moreover a commitment to develop land-based (including nature-based) adaptation measures is increasingly critical to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience across the country

Support increased NDC ambition in 2020 by pooling mitigation potentials by 2030 from coal phase out the expansion of renewable energy utility and distributed capacity and progress in electromobility While fires are becoming a great factor of uncertainty it is still possible and necessary to increase LULUCFAFOLU mitigation ambition Chile is already piloting results-based-payments and further reforestation and reducing land and forest degradation are critical to reduce vulnerability strengthen resilience and adaptation while also protecting essential ecosystem services biodiversity and to incentivise decentralised sustainable development

14

CHINA CASE STUDY Description of NDC China submitted its NDC to the UNFCCC in June 2015 It covers targets policies and implementation measures for both mitigation and adaptation

The key targets of the NDC to be achieved around or by 2030 are summarized as follows a) to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and make best efforts to peak earlier than that b) to lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65 from the 2005 level c) to increase the share of non-fossil fuels11 in primary energy consumption to around 20 and d) to increase the forest stock volume by around 45 billion cubic meters compared to 2005

To achieve this a series of policies and measures were proposed including for energy system industry buildings transportation and carbon sinks

As for adaptation China proposed to ldquoproactively adapt to climate change by enhancing mechanisms and capacities to effectively defend against climate change risks in key areasrdquo and to ldquoprogressively strengthen early warning and emergency response systems and disaster prevention and reduction mechanismsrdquo covering various sectors including agriculture forestry and water resources as well as in cities coastal and ecologically vulnerable areas

Progress in implementation Chinarsquos 2020 target to reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45 was reached already in 2017 and the target for forest stock volume was also over-fulfilled With Chinarsquos renewable energy industry boom the proportion of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption increased to 138 by

11 Non-fossil fuels here mean renewables and nuclear energy

Photo copy

ArtisticP

hoto Shutterstockcom

z

15

2017 These achievements also give China a solid foundation to reach its 2030 targets before that date

Coal consumption control and the transition from coal to non-fossil fuels might be the most important drivers for Chinarsquos progress While coal remains the dominant fuel in China the percentage of coal in total energy consumption decreased from 724 in 2005 to 604 in 2017 In contrast Chinarsquos renewable energy sector is booming According to REN21 China ranks as the worldrsquos leader in total renewables capacity and also in solar PV wind and geothermal heating capacity and investment in renewables capacity12 By the end of 2017 Chinarsquos total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 650GW with massive growth in wind and solar power especially It is estimated that Chinarsquos proportion of non-fossil energy sources will reach and surpass 15 by 2020

The policies issued and the actions implemented by Chinese government and other stakeholders will ensure a full fulfillment of the commitment that Chinese government has pledged to the international society Most prominently Chinarsquos international pledges and national targets are backed up by national strategies policies and detailed implementation measures with transparency and accountability mechanism

Potential for increased ambition According to a survey done by the China Carbon Forum 87 of respondents expect China to achieve the carbon emissions peak by 2030 the latest and 48 even expect it by 2025 or earlier13 Most of the research revealed that China could peak earlier than or well before 2030 and one study shows that Chinarsquos carbon emissions are likely to peak between 2020 and 202214 Given its economic restructuring potential China could achieve an emissions peak around 2023 with efforts in energy efficiency lowering the CO2 intensity in Chinarsquos GDP by just over 71 by 2030 compared to 2005 thus exceeding the NDC target of 60-6515

The transition trend from coal to renewables and other low carbon energy sources might be a great driver for China to overachieve its 2030 targets A new study released by the China National Renewable Energy Centre reveals that it is possible and beneficial for Chinarsquos fossil fuel use to peak in 2020 and decline steadily towards 203516 According to a 2015 WWF report around 84 of Chinarsquos electricity generation can be met with renewable sources by mid-century and the number is expected to be 49 in 203017

Given the above progress and scenario analyses we believe China has the potential to improve its NDC in terms of the peaking timeline share of non-fossil fuel in the primary energy consumption and carbon intensity targets showing more leadership as a torchbearer in global climate governance There is also reason to expect China to soon propose a long-term strategy for 2050 under the 15degC and 2degC scenarios

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Chinese government has shown strong political will on environmental protection in recent years through emphasizing the concept of ldquoecological civilizationrdquo Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China the environment has risen to an unprecedented status

12 REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report

13 China Carbon Forum 2018 ldquo2018 China Carbon Pricing Surveyrdquo

14 Chinadialogue 5 June 2018 ldquoRoundtable Is China still on track to reach its Paris targetsrdquo httpswwwchinadialoguenetarticleshowsingleen10653-Roundtable-Is-China-still-on-track-to-reach-its-Paris-targets- 15 Qilin Liu Qi Lei Huiming Xu etal ldquoChinarsquos energy revolution strategy into 2030rdquo in Resources Conservation and Recycling 2018 128 78-89

16 China National Renewable Energy Center 2018 ldquoChina Renewable Energy Outlook 2018rdquo

17 WWF 2015 ldquoChinarsquos Future Generation 20rdquo httpsd2ouvy59p0dg6kcloudfrontnetdownloadschina_s_future_generation_2_0_reportpdf

16

in the national development agenda The main driving force for environmental protection is the need for sustainable development including the need to fight air pollution

While US President Donald Trump has announced that the US will be pulling out of the Paris Agreement the China government has several times reaffirmed its commitment to the Agreement and the countryrsquos targets However it should also be noted that international trade tension between China and the US and the domestic challenges of slower economic growth arising from that have resulted in some conservative arguments against ambitious climate action in China18

Recommendations For China to reach its sustainable development ambition and goal of becoming an ldquoecological civilizationrdquo by mid-century and when considering the need for urgent and ambitious climate actions to avoid global warming over 15degC it should take the following actions

Revise its climate targets and commitments under the Paris Agreement by 2020 by

Bringing the timeline for emissions peaking to around 2022

Proposing a carbon emission reduction pathway for the period after the peaking to be in line with the Paris Agreementrsquos 15-2degC target

Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy to achieve a higher share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030

Accelerate its energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by

Strengthening coal consumption control halting new coal power and eliminating inefficient capacity

Reducing dispersed coal burning through efficiency improvement reduction and clean energy replacement

Accelerating power sector reform to create an environment for promoting large-scale and distributed deployment of renewable energy

Enhance international cooperation to take more leadership in addressing global climate change by

Supporting other developing countries to improve their capacity to achieving their climate targets through south-south cooperation on climate change

Shifting Chinarsquos oversea energy investments from coal to renewables to accelerate the pace and scale of the worldrsquos transition to a sustainable model of energy and development

18 Li Shuo 28 October 2018 ldquoDoes China Still Want to Be a Global Environmental Leaderrdquo httpsthediplomatcom201810does-china-still-want-to-be-a-global-environmental-leader

17

EUROPEAN UNION CASE STUDY Description of NDC The EU NDC purely focuses on mitigation outlining the agreed EU domestic emissions reduction target the implementation process and a narrative on why the EU believes its NDC is fair and ambitious This submission covers the collective contribution of the EU and the 28 Member States

The commitment is for the EU and the Member States to achieve an unconditional economy-wide ldquobinding target of an at least 40 domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990rdquo on 100 of emissions to be achieved domestically without the use of international credits19 The commitment period for the target is from January 1st 2021 (the EUrsquos second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol ends on December 31st 2020) to December 31st 2030 Additional legislation was created to facilitate the achievement of this goal including on LULUCF energy and transport The NDC holds no concrete information on any non-mitigation elements eg adaptation climate finance loss amp damage Complementing its NDC is the European Commission Communication lsquoThe Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 202020 which briefly discusses basic elements on several issues including climate finance adaptation and mitigation cycles

Progress in implementation The EUrsquos 2030 climate and energy framework21 -politically agreed in October 2014- forms the basis of its NDC The various pieces of legislation that pursue the attainment of the NDC target were agreed between 2016 and 2018 by EU Member States and European Parliament Of note based on the EUrsquos own calculations new legislative targets on renewable energy uptake and 19 European Commission (2015) Environment Council approves the EUs intended nationally determined contribution to the new global climate agreement Available at httpseceuropaeuclimanewsarticlesnews_2015030601_en 20 European Commission 2015 The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 httpeceuropaeutransparencyregdocrep12015EN1-2015-81-EN-F1-1PDF

21 European Commission 2014 European Council Conclusions httpwwwconsiliumeuropaeuuedocscms_datadocspressdataenec145397pdf

Photo copy

Hung C

hung Chih Shutterstockcom

z

18

energy efficiency measures mean that the EUrsquos emissions (if all Member States achieve these targets) will be reduced by 4522 by 2030 However this higher target is by no means in line with achieving 15degC or with becoming a net-zero economy well-before mid-century23 let alone the EUrsquos equitable fair-share

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Paris Agreement marked a significant shift in global ambition on climate change and committed EU Member States and other UNFCCC parties to keeping average global temperature rise lsquowell belowrsquo 2degC and to pursuing efforts to limit it to 15degC

A few options exist that can be used to create the impetus for a revised higher level of EU ambition in 2030 The EU justifies its insufficient NDC by quoting various IPCC assessment reports Following this logic the EU should now begin using the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC as the basis for all of its actions Moreover while the Paris Agreement has been agreed the rules governing it are yet to be agreed so ensuring a strong and successful completion of these rules may help to reignite the debate on increased EU ambition In October 2018 the EUrsquos position for COP24 states that the EU will ldquocommunicate or update its NDC by 2020 taking into account the collective further efforts needed and actions undertaken by all Parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreementrdquo24 In this same position the EU highlighted the importance of the Global Stocktake in 2023 for enhancing climate action by acknowledging the Paris Agreementrsquos wider ambition cycle To round out this list of options the European Parliament recently voted to show support for an EU emissions reduction target of 55 by 203025

Typically for any ambition increase to occur all EU Heads of State and Government need to politically guide a target increase The next appropriate moment to discuss an increase is when they examine a new long-term climate and energy target and strategy for the EU which will most likely take place May 2019 This meeting would be an opportune moment for EU Member States to examine their own long-term targets thereby contributing information that would allow the bloc as a whole to explore what prospects there are for an even more ambitious NDC target in line with a new EU long-term target However no clear signal from all EU Member States has been sent that they would support such a revision of the EU NDC target Moreover the legislative right to initiate a revision lies with the European Commission a change in its cabinet is foreseen after the European Parliament elections (052019) the implications of which will only be known after it happens

Another track that can be used to pursue higher ambition is at the EU Member States level All EU Member States must develop and submit final national climate and energy plans (NECPS) by the end of 2019 outlining how a Member State will achieve their share of the EU 2030 targets With these plans Member States also have the opportunity to highlight measures that allow their domestic emissions reductions to go beyond the minimal action required to fulfil their share of the EU targets eg coal-phase out ahead of 2030 permanent cancellation of ETS allowances or higher rates of deployment of sustainable technologies ie renewable energy energy efficiency

Indeed a few EU Member States have called for increased EU ambition26 while other EU Member States have called for the EU to focus on implementing existing EU policies before looking to

22 European Commission (2018) Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Cantildeete at the High Level Stakeholder Conference The EUs Vision of a modern clean and competitive economy Available at httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_SPEECH-18-4447_enhtm 23 Climate Action Tracker (2018) EU Available at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieseu 24 Consilium (2018) Climate change Council adopts conclusions for COP24 Council of the EU Available here httpswwwconsiliumeuropaeuenpresspress-releases20181009climate-change-council-adopts-conclusions

25 European Parliament (2018) COP24 Resolution Available at httpwwweuroparleuropaeunewsenpress-room20181018IPR16550paris-agreement-meps-call-for-stepping-up-eu-climate-commitments 26 Bureau Woordvoering Kabinetsformatie (2018) Coalition agreement Trust in the future [Kingdom of the Netherlands Cabinet Coalition government] Available at httpswwwkabinetsformatie2017nldocumentenpublicaties20171010regeerakkoord-vertrouwen-in-de-toekomst_sp=97c0f122-98ad-4998-91f4-dc49cdd03a6c1507635788124

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

13

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Chilersquos 2050 Energy Policy (PE2050) aims for renewable targets of at least 60 by 2035 and 70 by 2050 for electricity generation Recently the Energy Route 2018-2022 the Mitigation Plan for the Energy Sector and the Electromobility Strategy stand out as complementary policies that together should foster increased energy efficiency scaling-up small distributed energy and introducing 100 electric public transport and 40 electric private vehicle fleet by 2050 These developments represent strong signals for change however there is still the need to determine how the government will deploy measures improve enabling conditions for the private sector and ensure a participatory approach with citizens particularly in the cases where local impact is expected Furthermore there is an urgent need to accelerate adaptation response across the territory While adaptation sectoral plans are being developed at the national level it is crucial to move forward in implementation plans with strong local and regional participation

Recommendations For Chile to increase its NDC ambition it should

Include the mitigation resulting from a national agreement and plan to phase out coal-fired generation in the NDC in 2020 The government companies and local community representatives should continue working on transparent criteria to determine the timelines support and measures involved in the decommissioning of each unit

By 2020 improve the design and expand the scope of the current carbon tax to include other highly emitting sectors Establishing a gradually rising carbon price will provide more certainty to investors that play a key role in scaling up the implementation of climate-compatible projects

For successful coal phase-out the NDC should include a commitment to work with the private sector and civil society to ensure enabling policy conditions for renewable energy capacity to replace coal-fired capacity by building a reliable efficient inclusive sustainable and secure system

The NDC can also include at least a portion of mitigation results expected by 2030 through the implementation of the Electromobility Plan launched in 2018 Including electromobility in Chileacutes NDC will reflect institutional commitment on this matter which in turn will better position this emerging market in the map of investors

Introduce a significantly stronger target for forest landscape restoration (up to 1M ha) that accelerates national action and accesses international support to reduce the exposure to water scarcity and conditions leading to fires which peak LULUCF emissions (as in 2016-17) Moreover a commitment to develop land-based (including nature-based) adaptation measures is increasingly critical to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience across the country

Support increased NDC ambition in 2020 by pooling mitigation potentials by 2030 from coal phase out the expansion of renewable energy utility and distributed capacity and progress in electromobility While fires are becoming a great factor of uncertainty it is still possible and necessary to increase LULUCFAFOLU mitigation ambition Chile is already piloting results-based-payments and further reforestation and reducing land and forest degradation are critical to reduce vulnerability strengthen resilience and adaptation while also protecting essential ecosystem services biodiversity and to incentivise decentralised sustainable development

14

CHINA CASE STUDY Description of NDC China submitted its NDC to the UNFCCC in June 2015 It covers targets policies and implementation measures for both mitigation and adaptation

The key targets of the NDC to be achieved around or by 2030 are summarized as follows a) to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and make best efforts to peak earlier than that b) to lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65 from the 2005 level c) to increase the share of non-fossil fuels11 in primary energy consumption to around 20 and d) to increase the forest stock volume by around 45 billion cubic meters compared to 2005

To achieve this a series of policies and measures were proposed including for energy system industry buildings transportation and carbon sinks

As for adaptation China proposed to ldquoproactively adapt to climate change by enhancing mechanisms and capacities to effectively defend against climate change risks in key areasrdquo and to ldquoprogressively strengthen early warning and emergency response systems and disaster prevention and reduction mechanismsrdquo covering various sectors including agriculture forestry and water resources as well as in cities coastal and ecologically vulnerable areas

Progress in implementation Chinarsquos 2020 target to reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45 was reached already in 2017 and the target for forest stock volume was also over-fulfilled With Chinarsquos renewable energy industry boom the proportion of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption increased to 138 by

11 Non-fossil fuels here mean renewables and nuclear energy

Photo copy

ArtisticP

hoto Shutterstockcom

z

15

2017 These achievements also give China a solid foundation to reach its 2030 targets before that date

Coal consumption control and the transition from coal to non-fossil fuels might be the most important drivers for Chinarsquos progress While coal remains the dominant fuel in China the percentage of coal in total energy consumption decreased from 724 in 2005 to 604 in 2017 In contrast Chinarsquos renewable energy sector is booming According to REN21 China ranks as the worldrsquos leader in total renewables capacity and also in solar PV wind and geothermal heating capacity and investment in renewables capacity12 By the end of 2017 Chinarsquos total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 650GW with massive growth in wind and solar power especially It is estimated that Chinarsquos proportion of non-fossil energy sources will reach and surpass 15 by 2020

The policies issued and the actions implemented by Chinese government and other stakeholders will ensure a full fulfillment of the commitment that Chinese government has pledged to the international society Most prominently Chinarsquos international pledges and national targets are backed up by national strategies policies and detailed implementation measures with transparency and accountability mechanism

Potential for increased ambition According to a survey done by the China Carbon Forum 87 of respondents expect China to achieve the carbon emissions peak by 2030 the latest and 48 even expect it by 2025 or earlier13 Most of the research revealed that China could peak earlier than or well before 2030 and one study shows that Chinarsquos carbon emissions are likely to peak between 2020 and 202214 Given its economic restructuring potential China could achieve an emissions peak around 2023 with efforts in energy efficiency lowering the CO2 intensity in Chinarsquos GDP by just over 71 by 2030 compared to 2005 thus exceeding the NDC target of 60-6515

The transition trend from coal to renewables and other low carbon energy sources might be a great driver for China to overachieve its 2030 targets A new study released by the China National Renewable Energy Centre reveals that it is possible and beneficial for Chinarsquos fossil fuel use to peak in 2020 and decline steadily towards 203516 According to a 2015 WWF report around 84 of Chinarsquos electricity generation can be met with renewable sources by mid-century and the number is expected to be 49 in 203017

Given the above progress and scenario analyses we believe China has the potential to improve its NDC in terms of the peaking timeline share of non-fossil fuel in the primary energy consumption and carbon intensity targets showing more leadership as a torchbearer in global climate governance There is also reason to expect China to soon propose a long-term strategy for 2050 under the 15degC and 2degC scenarios

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Chinese government has shown strong political will on environmental protection in recent years through emphasizing the concept of ldquoecological civilizationrdquo Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China the environment has risen to an unprecedented status

12 REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report

13 China Carbon Forum 2018 ldquo2018 China Carbon Pricing Surveyrdquo

14 Chinadialogue 5 June 2018 ldquoRoundtable Is China still on track to reach its Paris targetsrdquo httpswwwchinadialoguenetarticleshowsingleen10653-Roundtable-Is-China-still-on-track-to-reach-its-Paris-targets- 15 Qilin Liu Qi Lei Huiming Xu etal ldquoChinarsquos energy revolution strategy into 2030rdquo in Resources Conservation and Recycling 2018 128 78-89

16 China National Renewable Energy Center 2018 ldquoChina Renewable Energy Outlook 2018rdquo

17 WWF 2015 ldquoChinarsquos Future Generation 20rdquo httpsd2ouvy59p0dg6kcloudfrontnetdownloadschina_s_future_generation_2_0_reportpdf

16

in the national development agenda The main driving force for environmental protection is the need for sustainable development including the need to fight air pollution

While US President Donald Trump has announced that the US will be pulling out of the Paris Agreement the China government has several times reaffirmed its commitment to the Agreement and the countryrsquos targets However it should also be noted that international trade tension between China and the US and the domestic challenges of slower economic growth arising from that have resulted in some conservative arguments against ambitious climate action in China18

Recommendations For China to reach its sustainable development ambition and goal of becoming an ldquoecological civilizationrdquo by mid-century and when considering the need for urgent and ambitious climate actions to avoid global warming over 15degC it should take the following actions

Revise its climate targets and commitments under the Paris Agreement by 2020 by

Bringing the timeline for emissions peaking to around 2022

Proposing a carbon emission reduction pathway for the period after the peaking to be in line with the Paris Agreementrsquos 15-2degC target

Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy to achieve a higher share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030

Accelerate its energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by

Strengthening coal consumption control halting new coal power and eliminating inefficient capacity

Reducing dispersed coal burning through efficiency improvement reduction and clean energy replacement

Accelerating power sector reform to create an environment for promoting large-scale and distributed deployment of renewable energy

Enhance international cooperation to take more leadership in addressing global climate change by

Supporting other developing countries to improve their capacity to achieving their climate targets through south-south cooperation on climate change

Shifting Chinarsquos oversea energy investments from coal to renewables to accelerate the pace and scale of the worldrsquos transition to a sustainable model of energy and development

18 Li Shuo 28 October 2018 ldquoDoes China Still Want to Be a Global Environmental Leaderrdquo httpsthediplomatcom201810does-china-still-want-to-be-a-global-environmental-leader

17

EUROPEAN UNION CASE STUDY Description of NDC The EU NDC purely focuses on mitigation outlining the agreed EU domestic emissions reduction target the implementation process and a narrative on why the EU believes its NDC is fair and ambitious This submission covers the collective contribution of the EU and the 28 Member States

The commitment is for the EU and the Member States to achieve an unconditional economy-wide ldquobinding target of an at least 40 domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990rdquo on 100 of emissions to be achieved domestically without the use of international credits19 The commitment period for the target is from January 1st 2021 (the EUrsquos second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol ends on December 31st 2020) to December 31st 2030 Additional legislation was created to facilitate the achievement of this goal including on LULUCF energy and transport The NDC holds no concrete information on any non-mitigation elements eg adaptation climate finance loss amp damage Complementing its NDC is the European Commission Communication lsquoThe Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 202020 which briefly discusses basic elements on several issues including climate finance adaptation and mitigation cycles

Progress in implementation The EUrsquos 2030 climate and energy framework21 -politically agreed in October 2014- forms the basis of its NDC The various pieces of legislation that pursue the attainment of the NDC target were agreed between 2016 and 2018 by EU Member States and European Parliament Of note based on the EUrsquos own calculations new legislative targets on renewable energy uptake and 19 European Commission (2015) Environment Council approves the EUs intended nationally determined contribution to the new global climate agreement Available at httpseceuropaeuclimanewsarticlesnews_2015030601_en 20 European Commission 2015 The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 httpeceuropaeutransparencyregdocrep12015EN1-2015-81-EN-F1-1PDF

21 European Commission 2014 European Council Conclusions httpwwwconsiliumeuropaeuuedocscms_datadocspressdataenec145397pdf

Photo copy

Hung C

hung Chih Shutterstockcom

z

18

energy efficiency measures mean that the EUrsquos emissions (if all Member States achieve these targets) will be reduced by 4522 by 2030 However this higher target is by no means in line with achieving 15degC or with becoming a net-zero economy well-before mid-century23 let alone the EUrsquos equitable fair-share

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Paris Agreement marked a significant shift in global ambition on climate change and committed EU Member States and other UNFCCC parties to keeping average global temperature rise lsquowell belowrsquo 2degC and to pursuing efforts to limit it to 15degC

A few options exist that can be used to create the impetus for a revised higher level of EU ambition in 2030 The EU justifies its insufficient NDC by quoting various IPCC assessment reports Following this logic the EU should now begin using the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC as the basis for all of its actions Moreover while the Paris Agreement has been agreed the rules governing it are yet to be agreed so ensuring a strong and successful completion of these rules may help to reignite the debate on increased EU ambition In October 2018 the EUrsquos position for COP24 states that the EU will ldquocommunicate or update its NDC by 2020 taking into account the collective further efforts needed and actions undertaken by all Parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreementrdquo24 In this same position the EU highlighted the importance of the Global Stocktake in 2023 for enhancing climate action by acknowledging the Paris Agreementrsquos wider ambition cycle To round out this list of options the European Parliament recently voted to show support for an EU emissions reduction target of 55 by 203025

Typically for any ambition increase to occur all EU Heads of State and Government need to politically guide a target increase The next appropriate moment to discuss an increase is when they examine a new long-term climate and energy target and strategy for the EU which will most likely take place May 2019 This meeting would be an opportune moment for EU Member States to examine their own long-term targets thereby contributing information that would allow the bloc as a whole to explore what prospects there are for an even more ambitious NDC target in line with a new EU long-term target However no clear signal from all EU Member States has been sent that they would support such a revision of the EU NDC target Moreover the legislative right to initiate a revision lies with the European Commission a change in its cabinet is foreseen after the European Parliament elections (052019) the implications of which will only be known after it happens

Another track that can be used to pursue higher ambition is at the EU Member States level All EU Member States must develop and submit final national climate and energy plans (NECPS) by the end of 2019 outlining how a Member State will achieve their share of the EU 2030 targets With these plans Member States also have the opportunity to highlight measures that allow their domestic emissions reductions to go beyond the minimal action required to fulfil their share of the EU targets eg coal-phase out ahead of 2030 permanent cancellation of ETS allowances or higher rates of deployment of sustainable technologies ie renewable energy energy efficiency

Indeed a few EU Member States have called for increased EU ambition26 while other EU Member States have called for the EU to focus on implementing existing EU policies before looking to

22 European Commission (2018) Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Cantildeete at the High Level Stakeholder Conference The EUs Vision of a modern clean and competitive economy Available at httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_SPEECH-18-4447_enhtm 23 Climate Action Tracker (2018) EU Available at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieseu 24 Consilium (2018) Climate change Council adopts conclusions for COP24 Council of the EU Available here httpswwwconsiliumeuropaeuenpresspress-releases20181009climate-change-council-adopts-conclusions

25 European Parliament (2018) COP24 Resolution Available at httpwwweuroparleuropaeunewsenpress-room20181018IPR16550paris-agreement-meps-call-for-stepping-up-eu-climate-commitments 26 Bureau Woordvoering Kabinetsformatie (2018) Coalition agreement Trust in the future [Kingdom of the Netherlands Cabinet Coalition government] Available at httpswwwkabinetsformatie2017nldocumentenpublicaties20171010regeerakkoord-vertrouwen-in-de-toekomst_sp=97c0f122-98ad-4998-91f4-dc49cdd03a6c1507635788124

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

14

CHINA CASE STUDY Description of NDC China submitted its NDC to the UNFCCC in June 2015 It covers targets policies and implementation measures for both mitigation and adaptation

The key targets of the NDC to be achieved around or by 2030 are summarized as follows a) to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and make best efforts to peak earlier than that b) to lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65 from the 2005 level c) to increase the share of non-fossil fuels11 in primary energy consumption to around 20 and d) to increase the forest stock volume by around 45 billion cubic meters compared to 2005

To achieve this a series of policies and measures were proposed including for energy system industry buildings transportation and carbon sinks

As for adaptation China proposed to ldquoproactively adapt to climate change by enhancing mechanisms and capacities to effectively defend against climate change risks in key areasrdquo and to ldquoprogressively strengthen early warning and emergency response systems and disaster prevention and reduction mechanismsrdquo covering various sectors including agriculture forestry and water resources as well as in cities coastal and ecologically vulnerable areas

Progress in implementation Chinarsquos 2020 target to reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45 was reached already in 2017 and the target for forest stock volume was also over-fulfilled With Chinarsquos renewable energy industry boom the proportion of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption increased to 138 by

11 Non-fossil fuels here mean renewables and nuclear energy

Photo copy

ArtisticP

hoto Shutterstockcom

z

15

2017 These achievements also give China a solid foundation to reach its 2030 targets before that date

Coal consumption control and the transition from coal to non-fossil fuels might be the most important drivers for Chinarsquos progress While coal remains the dominant fuel in China the percentage of coal in total energy consumption decreased from 724 in 2005 to 604 in 2017 In contrast Chinarsquos renewable energy sector is booming According to REN21 China ranks as the worldrsquos leader in total renewables capacity and also in solar PV wind and geothermal heating capacity and investment in renewables capacity12 By the end of 2017 Chinarsquos total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 650GW with massive growth in wind and solar power especially It is estimated that Chinarsquos proportion of non-fossil energy sources will reach and surpass 15 by 2020

The policies issued and the actions implemented by Chinese government and other stakeholders will ensure a full fulfillment of the commitment that Chinese government has pledged to the international society Most prominently Chinarsquos international pledges and national targets are backed up by national strategies policies and detailed implementation measures with transparency and accountability mechanism

Potential for increased ambition According to a survey done by the China Carbon Forum 87 of respondents expect China to achieve the carbon emissions peak by 2030 the latest and 48 even expect it by 2025 or earlier13 Most of the research revealed that China could peak earlier than or well before 2030 and one study shows that Chinarsquos carbon emissions are likely to peak between 2020 and 202214 Given its economic restructuring potential China could achieve an emissions peak around 2023 with efforts in energy efficiency lowering the CO2 intensity in Chinarsquos GDP by just over 71 by 2030 compared to 2005 thus exceeding the NDC target of 60-6515

The transition trend from coal to renewables and other low carbon energy sources might be a great driver for China to overachieve its 2030 targets A new study released by the China National Renewable Energy Centre reveals that it is possible and beneficial for Chinarsquos fossil fuel use to peak in 2020 and decline steadily towards 203516 According to a 2015 WWF report around 84 of Chinarsquos electricity generation can be met with renewable sources by mid-century and the number is expected to be 49 in 203017

Given the above progress and scenario analyses we believe China has the potential to improve its NDC in terms of the peaking timeline share of non-fossil fuel in the primary energy consumption and carbon intensity targets showing more leadership as a torchbearer in global climate governance There is also reason to expect China to soon propose a long-term strategy for 2050 under the 15degC and 2degC scenarios

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Chinese government has shown strong political will on environmental protection in recent years through emphasizing the concept of ldquoecological civilizationrdquo Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China the environment has risen to an unprecedented status

12 REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report

13 China Carbon Forum 2018 ldquo2018 China Carbon Pricing Surveyrdquo

14 Chinadialogue 5 June 2018 ldquoRoundtable Is China still on track to reach its Paris targetsrdquo httpswwwchinadialoguenetarticleshowsingleen10653-Roundtable-Is-China-still-on-track-to-reach-its-Paris-targets- 15 Qilin Liu Qi Lei Huiming Xu etal ldquoChinarsquos energy revolution strategy into 2030rdquo in Resources Conservation and Recycling 2018 128 78-89

16 China National Renewable Energy Center 2018 ldquoChina Renewable Energy Outlook 2018rdquo

17 WWF 2015 ldquoChinarsquos Future Generation 20rdquo httpsd2ouvy59p0dg6kcloudfrontnetdownloadschina_s_future_generation_2_0_reportpdf

16

in the national development agenda The main driving force for environmental protection is the need for sustainable development including the need to fight air pollution

While US President Donald Trump has announced that the US will be pulling out of the Paris Agreement the China government has several times reaffirmed its commitment to the Agreement and the countryrsquos targets However it should also be noted that international trade tension between China and the US and the domestic challenges of slower economic growth arising from that have resulted in some conservative arguments against ambitious climate action in China18

Recommendations For China to reach its sustainable development ambition and goal of becoming an ldquoecological civilizationrdquo by mid-century and when considering the need for urgent and ambitious climate actions to avoid global warming over 15degC it should take the following actions

Revise its climate targets and commitments under the Paris Agreement by 2020 by

Bringing the timeline for emissions peaking to around 2022

Proposing a carbon emission reduction pathway for the period after the peaking to be in line with the Paris Agreementrsquos 15-2degC target

Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy to achieve a higher share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030

Accelerate its energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by

Strengthening coal consumption control halting new coal power and eliminating inefficient capacity

Reducing dispersed coal burning through efficiency improvement reduction and clean energy replacement

Accelerating power sector reform to create an environment for promoting large-scale and distributed deployment of renewable energy

Enhance international cooperation to take more leadership in addressing global climate change by

Supporting other developing countries to improve their capacity to achieving their climate targets through south-south cooperation on climate change

Shifting Chinarsquos oversea energy investments from coal to renewables to accelerate the pace and scale of the worldrsquos transition to a sustainable model of energy and development

18 Li Shuo 28 October 2018 ldquoDoes China Still Want to Be a Global Environmental Leaderrdquo httpsthediplomatcom201810does-china-still-want-to-be-a-global-environmental-leader

17

EUROPEAN UNION CASE STUDY Description of NDC The EU NDC purely focuses on mitigation outlining the agreed EU domestic emissions reduction target the implementation process and a narrative on why the EU believes its NDC is fair and ambitious This submission covers the collective contribution of the EU and the 28 Member States

The commitment is for the EU and the Member States to achieve an unconditional economy-wide ldquobinding target of an at least 40 domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990rdquo on 100 of emissions to be achieved domestically without the use of international credits19 The commitment period for the target is from January 1st 2021 (the EUrsquos second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol ends on December 31st 2020) to December 31st 2030 Additional legislation was created to facilitate the achievement of this goal including on LULUCF energy and transport The NDC holds no concrete information on any non-mitigation elements eg adaptation climate finance loss amp damage Complementing its NDC is the European Commission Communication lsquoThe Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 202020 which briefly discusses basic elements on several issues including climate finance adaptation and mitigation cycles

Progress in implementation The EUrsquos 2030 climate and energy framework21 -politically agreed in October 2014- forms the basis of its NDC The various pieces of legislation that pursue the attainment of the NDC target were agreed between 2016 and 2018 by EU Member States and European Parliament Of note based on the EUrsquos own calculations new legislative targets on renewable energy uptake and 19 European Commission (2015) Environment Council approves the EUs intended nationally determined contribution to the new global climate agreement Available at httpseceuropaeuclimanewsarticlesnews_2015030601_en 20 European Commission 2015 The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 httpeceuropaeutransparencyregdocrep12015EN1-2015-81-EN-F1-1PDF

21 European Commission 2014 European Council Conclusions httpwwwconsiliumeuropaeuuedocscms_datadocspressdataenec145397pdf

Photo copy

Hung C

hung Chih Shutterstockcom

z

18

energy efficiency measures mean that the EUrsquos emissions (if all Member States achieve these targets) will be reduced by 4522 by 2030 However this higher target is by no means in line with achieving 15degC or with becoming a net-zero economy well-before mid-century23 let alone the EUrsquos equitable fair-share

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Paris Agreement marked a significant shift in global ambition on climate change and committed EU Member States and other UNFCCC parties to keeping average global temperature rise lsquowell belowrsquo 2degC and to pursuing efforts to limit it to 15degC

A few options exist that can be used to create the impetus for a revised higher level of EU ambition in 2030 The EU justifies its insufficient NDC by quoting various IPCC assessment reports Following this logic the EU should now begin using the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC as the basis for all of its actions Moreover while the Paris Agreement has been agreed the rules governing it are yet to be agreed so ensuring a strong and successful completion of these rules may help to reignite the debate on increased EU ambition In October 2018 the EUrsquos position for COP24 states that the EU will ldquocommunicate or update its NDC by 2020 taking into account the collective further efforts needed and actions undertaken by all Parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreementrdquo24 In this same position the EU highlighted the importance of the Global Stocktake in 2023 for enhancing climate action by acknowledging the Paris Agreementrsquos wider ambition cycle To round out this list of options the European Parliament recently voted to show support for an EU emissions reduction target of 55 by 203025

Typically for any ambition increase to occur all EU Heads of State and Government need to politically guide a target increase The next appropriate moment to discuss an increase is when they examine a new long-term climate and energy target and strategy for the EU which will most likely take place May 2019 This meeting would be an opportune moment for EU Member States to examine their own long-term targets thereby contributing information that would allow the bloc as a whole to explore what prospects there are for an even more ambitious NDC target in line with a new EU long-term target However no clear signal from all EU Member States has been sent that they would support such a revision of the EU NDC target Moreover the legislative right to initiate a revision lies with the European Commission a change in its cabinet is foreseen after the European Parliament elections (052019) the implications of which will only be known after it happens

Another track that can be used to pursue higher ambition is at the EU Member States level All EU Member States must develop and submit final national climate and energy plans (NECPS) by the end of 2019 outlining how a Member State will achieve their share of the EU 2030 targets With these plans Member States also have the opportunity to highlight measures that allow their domestic emissions reductions to go beyond the minimal action required to fulfil their share of the EU targets eg coal-phase out ahead of 2030 permanent cancellation of ETS allowances or higher rates of deployment of sustainable technologies ie renewable energy energy efficiency

Indeed a few EU Member States have called for increased EU ambition26 while other EU Member States have called for the EU to focus on implementing existing EU policies before looking to

22 European Commission (2018) Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Cantildeete at the High Level Stakeholder Conference The EUs Vision of a modern clean and competitive economy Available at httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_SPEECH-18-4447_enhtm 23 Climate Action Tracker (2018) EU Available at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieseu 24 Consilium (2018) Climate change Council adopts conclusions for COP24 Council of the EU Available here httpswwwconsiliumeuropaeuenpresspress-releases20181009climate-change-council-adopts-conclusions

25 European Parliament (2018) COP24 Resolution Available at httpwwweuroparleuropaeunewsenpress-room20181018IPR16550paris-agreement-meps-call-for-stepping-up-eu-climate-commitments 26 Bureau Woordvoering Kabinetsformatie (2018) Coalition agreement Trust in the future [Kingdom of the Netherlands Cabinet Coalition government] Available at httpswwwkabinetsformatie2017nldocumentenpublicaties20171010regeerakkoord-vertrouwen-in-de-toekomst_sp=97c0f122-98ad-4998-91f4-dc49cdd03a6c1507635788124

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

15

2017 These achievements also give China a solid foundation to reach its 2030 targets before that date

Coal consumption control and the transition from coal to non-fossil fuels might be the most important drivers for Chinarsquos progress While coal remains the dominant fuel in China the percentage of coal in total energy consumption decreased from 724 in 2005 to 604 in 2017 In contrast Chinarsquos renewable energy sector is booming According to REN21 China ranks as the worldrsquos leader in total renewables capacity and also in solar PV wind and geothermal heating capacity and investment in renewables capacity12 By the end of 2017 Chinarsquos total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 650GW with massive growth in wind and solar power especially It is estimated that Chinarsquos proportion of non-fossil energy sources will reach and surpass 15 by 2020

The policies issued and the actions implemented by Chinese government and other stakeholders will ensure a full fulfillment of the commitment that Chinese government has pledged to the international society Most prominently Chinarsquos international pledges and national targets are backed up by national strategies policies and detailed implementation measures with transparency and accountability mechanism

Potential for increased ambition According to a survey done by the China Carbon Forum 87 of respondents expect China to achieve the carbon emissions peak by 2030 the latest and 48 even expect it by 2025 or earlier13 Most of the research revealed that China could peak earlier than or well before 2030 and one study shows that Chinarsquos carbon emissions are likely to peak between 2020 and 202214 Given its economic restructuring potential China could achieve an emissions peak around 2023 with efforts in energy efficiency lowering the CO2 intensity in Chinarsquos GDP by just over 71 by 2030 compared to 2005 thus exceeding the NDC target of 60-6515

The transition trend from coal to renewables and other low carbon energy sources might be a great driver for China to overachieve its 2030 targets A new study released by the China National Renewable Energy Centre reveals that it is possible and beneficial for Chinarsquos fossil fuel use to peak in 2020 and decline steadily towards 203516 According to a 2015 WWF report around 84 of Chinarsquos electricity generation can be met with renewable sources by mid-century and the number is expected to be 49 in 203017

Given the above progress and scenario analyses we believe China has the potential to improve its NDC in terms of the peaking timeline share of non-fossil fuel in the primary energy consumption and carbon intensity targets showing more leadership as a torchbearer in global climate governance There is also reason to expect China to soon propose a long-term strategy for 2050 under the 15degC and 2degC scenarios

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Chinese government has shown strong political will on environmental protection in recent years through emphasizing the concept of ldquoecological civilizationrdquo Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China the environment has risen to an unprecedented status

12 REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report

13 China Carbon Forum 2018 ldquo2018 China Carbon Pricing Surveyrdquo

14 Chinadialogue 5 June 2018 ldquoRoundtable Is China still on track to reach its Paris targetsrdquo httpswwwchinadialoguenetarticleshowsingleen10653-Roundtable-Is-China-still-on-track-to-reach-its-Paris-targets- 15 Qilin Liu Qi Lei Huiming Xu etal ldquoChinarsquos energy revolution strategy into 2030rdquo in Resources Conservation and Recycling 2018 128 78-89

16 China National Renewable Energy Center 2018 ldquoChina Renewable Energy Outlook 2018rdquo

17 WWF 2015 ldquoChinarsquos Future Generation 20rdquo httpsd2ouvy59p0dg6kcloudfrontnetdownloadschina_s_future_generation_2_0_reportpdf

16

in the national development agenda The main driving force for environmental protection is the need for sustainable development including the need to fight air pollution

While US President Donald Trump has announced that the US will be pulling out of the Paris Agreement the China government has several times reaffirmed its commitment to the Agreement and the countryrsquos targets However it should also be noted that international trade tension between China and the US and the domestic challenges of slower economic growth arising from that have resulted in some conservative arguments against ambitious climate action in China18

Recommendations For China to reach its sustainable development ambition and goal of becoming an ldquoecological civilizationrdquo by mid-century and when considering the need for urgent and ambitious climate actions to avoid global warming over 15degC it should take the following actions

Revise its climate targets and commitments under the Paris Agreement by 2020 by

Bringing the timeline for emissions peaking to around 2022

Proposing a carbon emission reduction pathway for the period after the peaking to be in line with the Paris Agreementrsquos 15-2degC target

Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy to achieve a higher share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030

Accelerate its energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by

Strengthening coal consumption control halting new coal power and eliminating inefficient capacity

Reducing dispersed coal burning through efficiency improvement reduction and clean energy replacement

Accelerating power sector reform to create an environment for promoting large-scale and distributed deployment of renewable energy

Enhance international cooperation to take more leadership in addressing global climate change by

Supporting other developing countries to improve their capacity to achieving their climate targets through south-south cooperation on climate change

Shifting Chinarsquos oversea energy investments from coal to renewables to accelerate the pace and scale of the worldrsquos transition to a sustainable model of energy and development

18 Li Shuo 28 October 2018 ldquoDoes China Still Want to Be a Global Environmental Leaderrdquo httpsthediplomatcom201810does-china-still-want-to-be-a-global-environmental-leader

17

EUROPEAN UNION CASE STUDY Description of NDC The EU NDC purely focuses on mitigation outlining the agreed EU domestic emissions reduction target the implementation process and a narrative on why the EU believes its NDC is fair and ambitious This submission covers the collective contribution of the EU and the 28 Member States

The commitment is for the EU and the Member States to achieve an unconditional economy-wide ldquobinding target of an at least 40 domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990rdquo on 100 of emissions to be achieved domestically without the use of international credits19 The commitment period for the target is from January 1st 2021 (the EUrsquos second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol ends on December 31st 2020) to December 31st 2030 Additional legislation was created to facilitate the achievement of this goal including on LULUCF energy and transport The NDC holds no concrete information on any non-mitigation elements eg adaptation climate finance loss amp damage Complementing its NDC is the European Commission Communication lsquoThe Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 202020 which briefly discusses basic elements on several issues including climate finance adaptation and mitigation cycles

Progress in implementation The EUrsquos 2030 climate and energy framework21 -politically agreed in October 2014- forms the basis of its NDC The various pieces of legislation that pursue the attainment of the NDC target were agreed between 2016 and 2018 by EU Member States and European Parliament Of note based on the EUrsquos own calculations new legislative targets on renewable energy uptake and 19 European Commission (2015) Environment Council approves the EUs intended nationally determined contribution to the new global climate agreement Available at httpseceuropaeuclimanewsarticlesnews_2015030601_en 20 European Commission 2015 The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 httpeceuropaeutransparencyregdocrep12015EN1-2015-81-EN-F1-1PDF

21 European Commission 2014 European Council Conclusions httpwwwconsiliumeuropaeuuedocscms_datadocspressdataenec145397pdf

Photo copy

Hung C

hung Chih Shutterstockcom

z

18

energy efficiency measures mean that the EUrsquos emissions (if all Member States achieve these targets) will be reduced by 4522 by 2030 However this higher target is by no means in line with achieving 15degC or with becoming a net-zero economy well-before mid-century23 let alone the EUrsquos equitable fair-share

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Paris Agreement marked a significant shift in global ambition on climate change and committed EU Member States and other UNFCCC parties to keeping average global temperature rise lsquowell belowrsquo 2degC and to pursuing efforts to limit it to 15degC

A few options exist that can be used to create the impetus for a revised higher level of EU ambition in 2030 The EU justifies its insufficient NDC by quoting various IPCC assessment reports Following this logic the EU should now begin using the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC as the basis for all of its actions Moreover while the Paris Agreement has been agreed the rules governing it are yet to be agreed so ensuring a strong and successful completion of these rules may help to reignite the debate on increased EU ambition In October 2018 the EUrsquos position for COP24 states that the EU will ldquocommunicate or update its NDC by 2020 taking into account the collective further efforts needed and actions undertaken by all Parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreementrdquo24 In this same position the EU highlighted the importance of the Global Stocktake in 2023 for enhancing climate action by acknowledging the Paris Agreementrsquos wider ambition cycle To round out this list of options the European Parliament recently voted to show support for an EU emissions reduction target of 55 by 203025

Typically for any ambition increase to occur all EU Heads of State and Government need to politically guide a target increase The next appropriate moment to discuss an increase is when they examine a new long-term climate and energy target and strategy for the EU which will most likely take place May 2019 This meeting would be an opportune moment for EU Member States to examine their own long-term targets thereby contributing information that would allow the bloc as a whole to explore what prospects there are for an even more ambitious NDC target in line with a new EU long-term target However no clear signal from all EU Member States has been sent that they would support such a revision of the EU NDC target Moreover the legislative right to initiate a revision lies with the European Commission a change in its cabinet is foreseen after the European Parliament elections (052019) the implications of which will only be known after it happens

Another track that can be used to pursue higher ambition is at the EU Member States level All EU Member States must develop and submit final national climate and energy plans (NECPS) by the end of 2019 outlining how a Member State will achieve their share of the EU 2030 targets With these plans Member States also have the opportunity to highlight measures that allow their domestic emissions reductions to go beyond the minimal action required to fulfil their share of the EU targets eg coal-phase out ahead of 2030 permanent cancellation of ETS allowances or higher rates of deployment of sustainable technologies ie renewable energy energy efficiency

Indeed a few EU Member States have called for increased EU ambition26 while other EU Member States have called for the EU to focus on implementing existing EU policies before looking to

22 European Commission (2018) Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Cantildeete at the High Level Stakeholder Conference The EUs Vision of a modern clean and competitive economy Available at httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_SPEECH-18-4447_enhtm 23 Climate Action Tracker (2018) EU Available at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieseu 24 Consilium (2018) Climate change Council adopts conclusions for COP24 Council of the EU Available here httpswwwconsiliumeuropaeuenpresspress-releases20181009climate-change-council-adopts-conclusions

25 European Parliament (2018) COP24 Resolution Available at httpwwweuroparleuropaeunewsenpress-room20181018IPR16550paris-agreement-meps-call-for-stepping-up-eu-climate-commitments 26 Bureau Woordvoering Kabinetsformatie (2018) Coalition agreement Trust in the future [Kingdom of the Netherlands Cabinet Coalition government] Available at httpswwwkabinetsformatie2017nldocumentenpublicaties20171010regeerakkoord-vertrouwen-in-de-toekomst_sp=97c0f122-98ad-4998-91f4-dc49cdd03a6c1507635788124

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

16

in the national development agenda The main driving force for environmental protection is the need for sustainable development including the need to fight air pollution

While US President Donald Trump has announced that the US will be pulling out of the Paris Agreement the China government has several times reaffirmed its commitment to the Agreement and the countryrsquos targets However it should also be noted that international trade tension between China and the US and the domestic challenges of slower economic growth arising from that have resulted in some conservative arguments against ambitious climate action in China18

Recommendations For China to reach its sustainable development ambition and goal of becoming an ldquoecological civilizationrdquo by mid-century and when considering the need for urgent and ambitious climate actions to avoid global warming over 15degC it should take the following actions

Revise its climate targets and commitments under the Paris Agreement by 2020 by

Bringing the timeline for emissions peaking to around 2022

Proposing a carbon emission reduction pathway for the period after the peaking to be in line with the Paris Agreementrsquos 15-2degC target

Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy to achieve a higher share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030

Accelerate its energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by

Strengthening coal consumption control halting new coal power and eliminating inefficient capacity

Reducing dispersed coal burning through efficiency improvement reduction and clean energy replacement

Accelerating power sector reform to create an environment for promoting large-scale and distributed deployment of renewable energy

Enhance international cooperation to take more leadership in addressing global climate change by

Supporting other developing countries to improve their capacity to achieving their climate targets through south-south cooperation on climate change

Shifting Chinarsquos oversea energy investments from coal to renewables to accelerate the pace and scale of the worldrsquos transition to a sustainable model of energy and development

18 Li Shuo 28 October 2018 ldquoDoes China Still Want to Be a Global Environmental Leaderrdquo httpsthediplomatcom201810does-china-still-want-to-be-a-global-environmental-leader

17

EUROPEAN UNION CASE STUDY Description of NDC The EU NDC purely focuses on mitigation outlining the agreed EU domestic emissions reduction target the implementation process and a narrative on why the EU believes its NDC is fair and ambitious This submission covers the collective contribution of the EU and the 28 Member States

The commitment is for the EU and the Member States to achieve an unconditional economy-wide ldquobinding target of an at least 40 domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990rdquo on 100 of emissions to be achieved domestically without the use of international credits19 The commitment period for the target is from January 1st 2021 (the EUrsquos second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol ends on December 31st 2020) to December 31st 2030 Additional legislation was created to facilitate the achievement of this goal including on LULUCF energy and transport The NDC holds no concrete information on any non-mitigation elements eg adaptation climate finance loss amp damage Complementing its NDC is the European Commission Communication lsquoThe Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 202020 which briefly discusses basic elements on several issues including climate finance adaptation and mitigation cycles

Progress in implementation The EUrsquos 2030 climate and energy framework21 -politically agreed in October 2014- forms the basis of its NDC The various pieces of legislation that pursue the attainment of the NDC target were agreed between 2016 and 2018 by EU Member States and European Parliament Of note based on the EUrsquos own calculations new legislative targets on renewable energy uptake and 19 European Commission (2015) Environment Council approves the EUs intended nationally determined contribution to the new global climate agreement Available at httpseceuropaeuclimanewsarticlesnews_2015030601_en 20 European Commission 2015 The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 httpeceuropaeutransparencyregdocrep12015EN1-2015-81-EN-F1-1PDF

21 European Commission 2014 European Council Conclusions httpwwwconsiliumeuropaeuuedocscms_datadocspressdataenec145397pdf

Photo copy

Hung C

hung Chih Shutterstockcom

z

18

energy efficiency measures mean that the EUrsquos emissions (if all Member States achieve these targets) will be reduced by 4522 by 2030 However this higher target is by no means in line with achieving 15degC or with becoming a net-zero economy well-before mid-century23 let alone the EUrsquos equitable fair-share

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Paris Agreement marked a significant shift in global ambition on climate change and committed EU Member States and other UNFCCC parties to keeping average global temperature rise lsquowell belowrsquo 2degC and to pursuing efforts to limit it to 15degC

A few options exist that can be used to create the impetus for a revised higher level of EU ambition in 2030 The EU justifies its insufficient NDC by quoting various IPCC assessment reports Following this logic the EU should now begin using the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC as the basis for all of its actions Moreover while the Paris Agreement has been agreed the rules governing it are yet to be agreed so ensuring a strong and successful completion of these rules may help to reignite the debate on increased EU ambition In October 2018 the EUrsquos position for COP24 states that the EU will ldquocommunicate or update its NDC by 2020 taking into account the collective further efforts needed and actions undertaken by all Parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreementrdquo24 In this same position the EU highlighted the importance of the Global Stocktake in 2023 for enhancing climate action by acknowledging the Paris Agreementrsquos wider ambition cycle To round out this list of options the European Parliament recently voted to show support for an EU emissions reduction target of 55 by 203025

Typically for any ambition increase to occur all EU Heads of State and Government need to politically guide a target increase The next appropriate moment to discuss an increase is when they examine a new long-term climate and energy target and strategy for the EU which will most likely take place May 2019 This meeting would be an opportune moment for EU Member States to examine their own long-term targets thereby contributing information that would allow the bloc as a whole to explore what prospects there are for an even more ambitious NDC target in line with a new EU long-term target However no clear signal from all EU Member States has been sent that they would support such a revision of the EU NDC target Moreover the legislative right to initiate a revision lies with the European Commission a change in its cabinet is foreseen after the European Parliament elections (052019) the implications of which will only be known after it happens

Another track that can be used to pursue higher ambition is at the EU Member States level All EU Member States must develop and submit final national climate and energy plans (NECPS) by the end of 2019 outlining how a Member State will achieve their share of the EU 2030 targets With these plans Member States also have the opportunity to highlight measures that allow their domestic emissions reductions to go beyond the minimal action required to fulfil their share of the EU targets eg coal-phase out ahead of 2030 permanent cancellation of ETS allowances or higher rates of deployment of sustainable technologies ie renewable energy energy efficiency

Indeed a few EU Member States have called for increased EU ambition26 while other EU Member States have called for the EU to focus on implementing existing EU policies before looking to

22 European Commission (2018) Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Cantildeete at the High Level Stakeholder Conference The EUs Vision of a modern clean and competitive economy Available at httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_SPEECH-18-4447_enhtm 23 Climate Action Tracker (2018) EU Available at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieseu 24 Consilium (2018) Climate change Council adopts conclusions for COP24 Council of the EU Available here httpswwwconsiliumeuropaeuenpresspress-releases20181009climate-change-council-adopts-conclusions

25 European Parliament (2018) COP24 Resolution Available at httpwwweuroparleuropaeunewsenpress-room20181018IPR16550paris-agreement-meps-call-for-stepping-up-eu-climate-commitments 26 Bureau Woordvoering Kabinetsformatie (2018) Coalition agreement Trust in the future [Kingdom of the Netherlands Cabinet Coalition government] Available at httpswwwkabinetsformatie2017nldocumentenpublicaties20171010regeerakkoord-vertrouwen-in-de-toekomst_sp=97c0f122-98ad-4998-91f4-dc49cdd03a6c1507635788124

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

17

EUROPEAN UNION CASE STUDY Description of NDC The EU NDC purely focuses on mitigation outlining the agreed EU domestic emissions reduction target the implementation process and a narrative on why the EU believes its NDC is fair and ambitious This submission covers the collective contribution of the EU and the 28 Member States

The commitment is for the EU and the Member States to achieve an unconditional economy-wide ldquobinding target of an at least 40 domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990rdquo on 100 of emissions to be achieved domestically without the use of international credits19 The commitment period for the target is from January 1st 2021 (the EUrsquos second commitment to the Kyoto Protocol ends on December 31st 2020) to December 31st 2030 Additional legislation was created to facilitate the achievement of this goal including on LULUCF energy and transport The NDC holds no concrete information on any non-mitigation elements eg adaptation climate finance loss amp damage Complementing its NDC is the European Commission Communication lsquoThe Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 202020 which briefly discusses basic elements on several issues including climate finance adaptation and mitigation cycles

Progress in implementation The EUrsquos 2030 climate and energy framework21 -politically agreed in October 2014- forms the basis of its NDC The various pieces of legislation that pursue the attainment of the NDC target were agreed between 2016 and 2018 by EU Member States and European Parliament Of note based on the EUrsquos own calculations new legislative targets on renewable energy uptake and 19 European Commission (2015) Environment Council approves the EUs intended nationally determined contribution to the new global climate agreement Available at httpseceuropaeuclimanewsarticlesnews_2015030601_en 20 European Commission 2015 The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 httpeceuropaeutransparencyregdocrep12015EN1-2015-81-EN-F1-1PDF

21 European Commission 2014 European Council Conclusions httpwwwconsiliumeuropaeuuedocscms_datadocspressdataenec145397pdf

Photo copy

Hung C

hung Chih Shutterstockcom

z

18

energy efficiency measures mean that the EUrsquos emissions (if all Member States achieve these targets) will be reduced by 4522 by 2030 However this higher target is by no means in line with achieving 15degC or with becoming a net-zero economy well-before mid-century23 let alone the EUrsquos equitable fair-share

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Paris Agreement marked a significant shift in global ambition on climate change and committed EU Member States and other UNFCCC parties to keeping average global temperature rise lsquowell belowrsquo 2degC and to pursuing efforts to limit it to 15degC

A few options exist that can be used to create the impetus for a revised higher level of EU ambition in 2030 The EU justifies its insufficient NDC by quoting various IPCC assessment reports Following this logic the EU should now begin using the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC as the basis for all of its actions Moreover while the Paris Agreement has been agreed the rules governing it are yet to be agreed so ensuring a strong and successful completion of these rules may help to reignite the debate on increased EU ambition In October 2018 the EUrsquos position for COP24 states that the EU will ldquocommunicate or update its NDC by 2020 taking into account the collective further efforts needed and actions undertaken by all Parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreementrdquo24 In this same position the EU highlighted the importance of the Global Stocktake in 2023 for enhancing climate action by acknowledging the Paris Agreementrsquos wider ambition cycle To round out this list of options the European Parliament recently voted to show support for an EU emissions reduction target of 55 by 203025

Typically for any ambition increase to occur all EU Heads of State and Government need to politically guide a target increase The next appropriate moment to discuss an increase is when they examine a new long-term climate and energy target and strategy for the EU which will most likely take place May 2019 This meeting would be an opportune moment for EU Member States to examine their own long-term targets thereby contributing information that would allow the bloc as a whole to explore what prospects there are for an even more ambitious NDC target in line with a new EU long-term target However no clear signal from all EU Member States has been sent that they would support such a revision of the EU NDC target Moreover the legislative right to initiate a revision lies with the European Commission a change in its cabinet is foreseen after the European Parliament elections (052019) the implications of which will only be known after it happens

Another track that can be used to pursue higher ambition is at the EU Member States level All EU Member States must develop and submit final national climate and energy plans (NECPS) by the end of 2019 outlining how a Member State will achieve their share of the EU 2030 targets With these plans Member States also have the opportunity to highlight measures that allow their domestic emissions reductions to go beyond the minimal action required to fulfil their share of the EU targets eg coal-phase out ahead of 2030 permanent cancellation of ETS allowances or higher rates of deployment of sustainable technologies ie renewable energy energy efficiency

Indeed a few EU Member States have called for increased EU ambition26 while other EU Member States have called for the EU to focus on implementing existing EU policies before looking to

22 European Commission (2018) Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Cantildeete at the High Level Stakeholder Conference The EUs Vision of a modern clean and competitive economy Available at httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_SPEECH-18-4447_enhtm 23 Climate Action Tracker (2018) EU Available at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieseu 24 Consilium (2018) Climate change Council adopts conclusions for COP24 Council of the EU Available here httpswwwconsiliumeuropaeuenpresspress-releases20181009climate-change-council-adopts-conclusions

25 European Parliament (2018) COP24 Resolution Available at httpwwweuroparleuropaeunewsenpress-room20181018IPR16550paris-agreement-meps-call-for-stepping-up-eu-climate-commitments 26 Bureau Woordvoering Kabinetsformatie (2018) Coalition agreement Trust in the future [Kingdom of the Netherlands Cabinet Coalition government] Available at httpswwwkabinetsformatie2017nldocumentenpublicaties20171010regeerakkoord-vertrouwen-in-de-toekomst_sp=97c0f122-98ad-4998-91f4-dc49cdd03a6c1507635788124

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

18

energy efficiency measures mean that the EUrsquos emissions (if all Member States achieve these targets) will be reduced by 4522 by 2030 However this higher target is by no means in line with achieving 15degC or with becoming a net-zero economy well-before mid-century23 let alone the EUrsquos equitable fair-share

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The Paris Agreement marked a significant shift in global ambition on climate change and committed EU Member States and other UNFCCC parties to keeping average global temperature rise lsquowell belowrsquo 2degC and to pursuing efforts to limit it to 15degC

A few options exist that can be used to create the impetus for a revised higher level of EU ambition in 2030 The EU justifies its insufficient NDC by quoting various IPCC assessment reports Following this logic the EU should now begin using the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC as the basis for all of its actions Moreover while the Paris Agreement has been agreed the rules governing it are yet to be agreed so ensuring a strong and successful completion of these rules may help to reignite the debate on increased EU ambition In October 2018 the EUrsquos position for COP24 states that the EU will ldquocommunicate or update its NDC by 2020 taking into account the collective further efforts needed and actions undertaken by all Parties to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreementrdquo24 In this same position the EU highlighted the importance of the Global Stocktake in 2023 for enhancing climate action by acknowledging the Paris Agreementrsquos wider ambition cycle To round out this list of options the European Parliament recently voted to show support for an EU emissions reduction target of 55 by 203025

Typically for any ambition increase to occur all EU Heads of State and Government need to politically guide a target increase The next appropriate moment to discuss an increase is when they examine a new long-term climate and energy target and strategy for the EU which will most likely take place May 2019 This meeting would be an opportune moment for EU Member States to examine their own long-term targets thereby contributing information that would allow the bloc as a whole to explore what prospects there are for an even more ambitious NDC target in line with a new EU long-term target However no clear signal from all EU Member States has been sent that they would support such a revision of the EU NDC target Moreover the legislative right to initiate a revision lies with the European Commission a change in its cabinet is foreseen after the European Parliament elections (052019) the implications of which will only be known after it happens

Another track that can be used to pursue higher ambition is at the EU Member States level All EU Member States must develop and submit final national climate and energy plans (NECPS) by the end of 2019 outlining how a Member State will achieve their share of the EU 2030 targets With these plans Member States also have the opportunity to highlight measures that allow their domestic emissions reductions to go beyond the minimal action required to fulfil their share of the EU targets eg coal-phase out ahead of 2030 permanent cancellation of ETS allowances or higher rates of deployment of sustainable technologies ie renewable energy energy efficiency

Indeed a few EU Member States have called for increased EU ambition26 while other EU Member States have called for the EU to focus on implementing existing EU policies before looking to

22 European Commission (2018) Speech by Commissioner Miguel Arias Cantildeete at the High Level Stakeholder Conference The EUs Vision of a modern clean and competitive economy Available at httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_SPEECH-18-4447_enhtm 23 Climate Action Tracker (2018) EU Available at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountrieseu 24 Consilium (2018) Climate change Council adopts conclusions for COP24 Council of the EU Available here httpswwwconsiliumeuropaeuenpresspress-releases20181009climate-change-council-adopts-conclusions

25 European Parliament (2018) COP24 Resolution Available at httpwwweuroparleuropaeunewsenpress-room20181018IPR16550paris-agreement-meps-call-for-stepping-up-eu-climate-commitments 26 Bureau Woordvoering Kabinetsformatie (2018) Coalition agreement Trust in the future [Kingdom of the Netherlands Cabinet Coalition government] Available at httpswwwkabinetsformatie2017nldocumentenpublicaties20171010regeerakkoord-vertrouwen-in-de-toekomst_sp=97c0f122-98ad-4998-91f4-dc49cdd03a6c1507635788124

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

19

increase targets27 Whilst the potential to go further exists the collective political will of EU Member States does not yet exist Even so a consensus by all Member States is not a formal requirement since the EUrsquos environment and climate policies are formally agreed by qualified majority voting rules

Recommendations More must be done to strengthen the EUrsquos existing climate and energy policies and to create an enabling environment that motivates EU Member States to race to the top of the ambition pyramid Specific recommendations are

Revise the EU NDC by 2020 and increase its level of ambition to reflect the level of urgency imbued in the IPCC 15degC report and to support a transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions society in the EU by 2040

The EU as a whole must aim to reach zero net greenhouse gas emissions domestically by 2040

All EU Members States must be encouraged to overachieve their 2020 targets The EU as a bloc is set to overachieve its 2020 climate targets however eight EU Member States are projected to miss their climate andor energy targets28

Reduce emissions in different sectors to zero (or near zero) by 2040 including by phasing out fossil fuels moving to a 100 renewable energy system accelerating the shift to a circular economy and by promoting the use of energy efficiency Member States can use existing EU tools and frameworks on climate and energy policy and should also be encouraged by the EU to use additional policies regulations and incentives adapted to national circumstances

Facilitate the increase of removals by sinks in EU Member States by using environmentally sustainable approaches under eg the EU Timber Regulation to facilitate the restoration of forests and other ecosystems and phasing out EU bioenergy policies that increase deforestation or reduce sinks and that are counterproductive in climate terms

Follow the lead of other countries and develop a just transition model for EU Member States to use as guidance for EU Member States The model should bring workers and companies along with the energy transition and plan for early retirement re-skill workers and restore the natural environment

Outline mechanisms to assess the consistency of all existing EU policy and infrastructure investment with the goal of zero net emissions in 2040 in order to facilitate emissions reductions to ensure that all EU policy is mutually reinforcing and does not unintentionally undermine the integrity of EU climate and energy efforts and to reduce the risk of stranded assets

Assess and implement policies and measures so that the EU can contribute to emissions reduction elsewhere in the world both by reducing demand for imported goods that have high carbon footprints and by increasing climate finance and capacity building for climate action in developing countries In addition to the EU fulfilling its own domestic targets domestically

27 Reuters (2018) Merkel says EU should meet existing emissions aims not set new ones Available at httpsukreuterscomarticleuk-germany-politics-merkelmerkel-says-eu-should-meet-existing-emissions-aims-not-set-new-ones-idUKKCN1LB0HG

28 EUR-Lex (2018) Climate action progress report European Commission Available at httpseur-lexeuropaeulegal-contentENTXTPDFuri=CELEX52018DC0716ampfrom=EN

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

20

Set out how EU public and private financial flows ndash starting with the EU budget should be reoriented towards the above objectives to help all Member States benefit from the transition to a clean economy

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

21

MADAGASCAR CASE STUDY Description of NDC Madagascar submitted its NDC in 2015 The Ministry of Environment Ecology and Forest in particular the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is leading the process for the country Madagascar has committed to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of GHG (representing 14 of national emissions) by 2030 compared to the BAU scenarios based on the GHG inventory from 2000 to 2010 This commitment covers the LULUCF energy agriculture and waste sectors It includes reforesting 270 000 ha to increase removal of carbon by 61 MtCO2 (32) and promoting REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) Other measures include increasing renewable energy from the current level of 35 to 79 increasing energy efficiency (including dissemination of improved cooking stoves) and increasing rural electrification Agricultural measures include large scale dissemination of intensiveimproved rice farming technique and implementation of climate smart agriculture On adaptation by 2020 to 2030 Madagascar committed to develop and implement its National Adaptation Plan to strengthen the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the water resources management and national maritime territory strategies and to support the development of the national framework for meteorological services It also covers the development of resilient integrated agriculture models nature-based actions (restoration sustainable management of natural resources including climate refugia inside and outside the protected areas) setting up of multi-hazard early warning systems and sensitisation and awareness raising on climate change The cost of the Madagascar NDC is estimated at USD 42099 billion conditioned by external and national contributions (the Republic of Madagascar will contribute through the mobilisation of domestic resources up to 4 of the NDC implementation costs)

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

22

Progress in implementation Since the submission of its NDC Madagascar has shown some progress and particularly through the collaboration between the Government and various partners andor donors including WWF On mitigation Madagascar has adopted a new National Energy Policy for 2015-2030 with main targets including 85 renewable energy in electricity production an electricity access rate of 70 50 of fuelwood needs coming from legal and sustainable forest resources and adoption of energy efficient devices by 65 of households As part of the implementation of this policy a national strategy was approved in 2018 for a sustainable fuelwood value chain In addition in 2018 the country developed its REDD+ national strategy with a monitoring reporting and verification system in place An Emissions Reduction project was also approved by the Forest Carbon Partnership Fund in 2018 and the new national strategy for reforestationafforestation was approved while the country also committed to restore 4 million ha as part of AFR100 (African Forest Restoration Initiative)29 Recently through Conservation International Madagascar GEF6 Concept on the capacity building initiative for transparency (CBIT) was approved and proposal development is ongoing On the adaptation side the country launched the development of its NAP in 2016 This is still underway with support from the NAP coordination and monitoringevaluation committee formed by non-state and state stakeholders and where WWF is very active and supportive Madagascar also received support from the French Development Agency through the AdaptrsquoAction project to support the country to implement the NDC and to build its capacity Other projects andor programmes are currently being implemented by several stakeholders such as Government ministries GIZ USAID World Bank WWF UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) that contribute to the NDC commitments There is not yet a framework to clearly assess these contributions

Potential for increased ambition Given that neither the carbon registry nor the adaptation registries are yet in place there is no information to track progress Increased ambition could be achieved through the implementation of existing improved sectoral policies and strategies promotion of intersectoral synergy and naturalland-based solutions WWF is supporting the government in the expansion of the marine protected areas and the mapping of ecological infrastructure as part of the national land use planning process However the recent surge in the deforestation rate is alarming (510000 ha lost in 2017 according to Global Forest Watch) and needs to be addressed30 According to the country NDC if nothing is done Madagascarrsquos total emissions will increase from ca 87 MtCO2 in the year 2000 to reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030 The country therefore has to tackle this deforestation seriously It will also be important to consider other sectors such as the mining and petroleum sector which is foreseen to support economic development of the country To summarise the National Head of Climate Change Coordination is trying to coordinate those ongoing actions and initiatives but should be enhanced for better coordination of country achievements

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The National Development Plan for 2015-2019 emphasises the resilience of natural capital which has shown the country commitment to address climate issues However the country just went through the first round of presidential elections on 7 November 2018 There are uncertainties regarding political stability which may have some implications on any commitments to increase ambition In general new government leads to changes in the ministry structure Since 2015 the head of the National Directorate of Climate Change Coordination has changed three times which delays implementation Local governments could also play a stronger role in the implementation

29 httpsafr100org

30 httpswwwglobalforestwatchorgdashboardscountryMDG

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

23

of NDC however so far their role has been unclear and information flows from the national to local government are weak

There are existing climate and energy platforms in the country such us the National Energy Task Force Group the National Climate Change Thematic Group (acting both on adaptation and mitigation) the national REDD+ Platform and various climate change CSOs platform including youth These platforms should increase their involvement in the NDC implementation and support the government to deliver their ambition as well as lobbying for improved ambition

Recommendations To increase the ambition of the NDC Madagascar should

Boost the development of the NDC implementation plan or equivalent

Accelerate the development and implementation of sectoral plans and measures contributing to the NDC

Operationalise an NDC platform advisor (formed by state and non-state actors) that will support the government in better mainstreaming climate change challenges in sectoral policies and plans in delivering the country commitments and in revisingincreasing its ambitions

Make operational the carbon and adaptation registries or equivalent monitoring system which are crucial to assess the pre-2020 contributions and help to track the progress before the next revision

Boost the implementation of the new Energy Policy (in particular the national strategy for sustainable fuelwood management and reforestationafforestation through resource mobilisation and market-based approaches) and the REDD+ National Strategy

Boost the development and implementation of the National Adaptation Plan

Increase ambition with particular attention to nature-based solutions

o By 2020 a revised climate-smart protected area framework and guidance as well as for CBNRM should be in place and used to revise existing and new management plans In addition an expansion plan for Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas should be developed based on climate risks assessment A joint contribution between NDC and Aichi Targets will be also crucial particularly regarding strategic goal 5 10 and 11

o Increase the LULUCF targets particularly with regards to the deforestation rate which is quite alarming so far and could jeopardise the country GHG targets Develop a joint contribution between NDC and Aichi targets (particularly regarding the strategic goal 11 and 15) in the revised contributions

o Boost the the development and implementation of the 30-year vision on land-use management spatially framed within Madagascarrsquos ecological infrastructures to ensure the resilience and durability of all economical environmental and social investments in the country

o Consider updated sectoral policies that are more specific and higher in ambition than the present NDC targets

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

24

MEXICO CASE STUDY Description of NDC Mexico has played a leading role in the international climate negotiations and has developed a strong national institutional framework to tackle climate change After the Paris Agreement Mexico was the first developing country to submit its NDC setting several targets On the mitigation side the Federal Government committed to reduce 22 of GHG emissions under the baseline scenario by 2030 and up to 36 conditional on international support It also set an unconditional target to reduce 51 of black carbon emissions and a conditional one of 70 under the baseline scenario by 2030 The emissions mitigation pathway presented in the NDC implies the carbon-intensity of the national economy should be reduced up to 40 during the 2013-2030 period Sectors included in these targets are energy industry transport urban development agriculture and livestock and LULUCF Despite these targets implying significant and rapid improvements in public regulations and technology independent evaluations consider them insufficient in terms of their alignment with 15degC temperature rise goal31 On the adaptation side Mexico included three goals in its NDC strengthen actions for ecosystem protection and restoration and attain a deforestation rate of 0 increase the adaptive capacity of the population to climate change and reduce high vulnerability in 160 municipalities and generate early warning and prevention systems in the entire country against extreme hydrometeorological events Compared to other developing countries Mexico stands out by naming ecosystem-based adaptation as the core of its NDC and having prepared the NDC through considering synergies between adaptation and mitigation

31 See latest Climate Action Tracker assessment at httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesmexico

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

25

Progress in implementation According to the last official national inventory GHG annual emissions have increased from 44742 Gg of CO2e in 1990 to 682959 Gg of CO2e in 2015 Since 2008 the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous years

As a result of the Energy Reform that started in 2012 the government opened the electricity sector to private investment which enhanced the participation of renewable energy in the energy matrix Solar and wind power generation has grown 385 and 435 during the 2012-2017 period Despite this major progress renewable sources only represent 156 of the total annual generation of which 97 is hydropower that has shown high vulnerability to climate changes Increasing the percentage of renewables represents a major challenge to complying with NDC mitigation targets and also to the goals set in the Energy Transition Law to reach 35 of clean energy by 2024 and 50 by 2050

According to the Forest Resources Assessment published every five years the annual loss of forest surface decreased from 190400 thousand hectares per year during the period 1990-2000 to 91600 thousand hectares during 2010-2015 period

In addition the Mexican government has made progress in building enabling conditions for NDC implementation Firstly it estimated the cost of complying the non-conditional target as around US$ 126 billion It also conducted several sectoral dialogues with relevant government and private sector entities to socialise the NDC targets and to identify opportunities for effective collaboration A similar exercise was implemented with state and local governments At the moment 30 out of 32 states have climate change programs including emissions inventories and mitigation actions Mexico City and Guadalajara Metropolitan Areas the two most populated urban areas in the country are now part of C40 Cities32 and receive support to develop climate change plans aligned with the 15degC temperature target

On the legal side last July the federal government published several modifications and additions to the General Climate Change Law One of them is to set as goal of this law to contribute to the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement and the inclusion of NDC targets

Political context in country regarding ambition increase General elections were held in Mexico on July 2018 It was one of the broadest processes including the Presidency Senate Chamber of Deputies and most of state governors As the result the whole country is experiencing a massive change in political power from traditional political parties (PRI PAN and PRD) to MORENA a recently created political party that now has the presidency and majorities in the chamber and Senate

The explicit positions of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the elected president regarding climate change have been unclear in relation to specific policies and measures to comply with current commitments and to raise ambition and especially in terms of coherence with other positions and announcements particularly in the energy sector Priority actions in the new energy plan are mainly aimed at fossil fuel promotion and the implications on GHG emissions are not mentioned In the electricity sector one of the most sensitive issues would be the methodology for defining electricity tariffs This should be released in December and will definitely influence the speed and scale of deployment of renewable energy At the One Planet Summit the president announced that in 2019 an emissions trading system will start a pilot implementation phase that will cover 500 companies belonging to the stock exchange This would apply a price to around 400 million tons of CO2e

32 httpswwwc40org

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

26

Recommendations The elected Mexican government faces the challenge of reducing violence poverty and inequality in a highly globalised economy and unstable political environment in the region In this context international agreements that Mexico has signed particularly in the sustainable development agenda should be seen as levers to define the direction and magnitude of current and new public policies in a more coherence and synergistic framework Recommendations for an improved NDC to reduce GHG emissions beyond the current targets and also contribute to a more general sustainable development agenda are

Show real commitment to renewable energy through developing auction mechanisms with a special focus on renewable energy and involving more buyers establishing clear and most ambitious clean energy goals through the Clean Energy Certificates mechanism in the long-term eliminating subsidies for electricity and establishing a robust methodology to calculate final tariffs for retail users and keeping regulatory bodies such as Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) as autonomous and independent technical-decision organisations that donrsquot follow political cycles

Adjust carbon pricing mechanisms in place including the emissions trading system and carbon tax to reflect the real cost of carbon externalities globally and locally

Develop significant incentives for the private sector to set mitigation goals (eg science-based targets) and incentivise regulatory certainty to foster the investments needed

Strengthen local governmentsrsquo capacities to implement additional mitigation actions including training on developing emissions inventories identification of cost-effective measures monitoring reporting and verification systems and access to finance

Elaborate and implement a national urban policy that expands the use sustainable modes (walking cycling public transport) in primary and secondary cities extends current programs to promote eco-technologies in residential and commercial buildings collaborates with local governments to improve waste management practices and implements a more ambitious strategy for sustainable consumption and production

Reform agricultural support programs to ensure that subsidies do not increase deforestation rates

Expand the National Program of Payment for Hydrological Services and strengthen the National System of Natural Protected Areas

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

27

NEW ZEALAND CASE STUDY Description of NDC Aotearoa New Zealand pledged in 2015 to reduce its emissions to 30 below 2005 levels which amounts to 11 below 1990 levels This is an all-sectors all-gases economy-wide target set using Kyoto Protocol accounting standards It was premised on unrestricted access to international carbon markets with ecological integrity This NDC is mitigation only It does not include any adaptation component

Over 17000 New Zealanders submitted on New Zealandrsquos NDC Around 995 of the New Zealanders who suggested a quantitative target sought a more ambitious mitigation target33

Independent scientists at Climate Action Tracker have assessed New Zealandrsquos NDC as ldquoinsufficientrdquo consistent with 3degC of warming34

In 2013 New Zealand also pledged to reduce its net emissions to 5 below 1990 levels by 2020 The country is on track to meet this target though this is largely due to surplus units including from international trading from the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period35

33 Ministry for the Environment New Zealandrsquos Climate Change Target (July 2015) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changenz-climate-change-target-summary-of-submissions_0pdf at 6

34 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Pledges and Targets (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealandpledges-and-targets

35 Ministry for the Environment Latest update on New Zealands 2020 net position (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changewhat-government-doingemissions-reduction-targetsreporting-our-targetslatest-2020

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

28

Progress on implementation New Zealand gross emissions have increased 196 since 1990 and still continue to rise36 but are projected to stabilise at around current levels37 This represents a 21 increase on 1990 levels and only a 6 reduction compared to a business as usual scenario Consequently past governments have placed high importance on access to international carbon markets and the use of domestic forestry sinks to in plans to achieve emissions targets like the NDC

New Zealandrsquos emissions profile poses particular challenges with approximately one half of net emissions coming from agriculture While New Zealandrsquos total agricultural emissions continue to grow significant improvements have been made on biological emissions intensity38 Avoiding international emissions leakage is therefore particularly important in securing meaningful agricultural emission reductions

Much work is underway to overhaul New Zealandrsquos domestic climate change policies and activities For example the New Zealand Productivity Commission has completed a detailed investigation into the opportunities for transition to a low (or net zero) emissions economy39

The government is also working to address climate adaptation and ensure a Just Transition for workers The Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) has made detailed recommendations40 A dedicated Just Transitions unit has been established within the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment41

Potential for increased ambition New Zealand has a significant opportunity to show leadership by enhancing its NDC In 2017 the New Zealand government announced an intention to set a 2050 target of net zero emissions Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described climate action as her generationrsquos ldquonuclear free momentrdquo alluding to New Zealandrsquos historic 1987 decision to ban nuclear weapons or energy within its territory42

New Zealand is also on the verge of passing a new climate law to enact the net zero emissions goal Since 2016 youth organisation Generation Zero has campaigned (with support from WWF-New Zealand and others) for this new law the Zero Carbon Act The government has now committed to pass it and the main opposition party has agreed to support the creation of a climate commission

The Zero Carbon Act has strong public support Over 91 of the 15000 New Zealanders who submitted on it endorsed the net zero emissions 2050 target

36 Ministry for the Environment New Zealands Greenhouse Gas Inventory (April 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzclimate-changestate-of-our-atmosphere-and-climatenew-zealands-greenhouse-gas-inventory 37 Climate Action Tracker New Zealand Country Summary (2017) httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnew-zealand 38 As the New Zealand Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment noted in 2016 New Zealand is ldquoone of the most efficient producers of milk and meatrdquo worldwide Jan Wright Climate change and agriculture Understanding the biological greenhouse gases (Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment October 2016) at 26 39 New Zealand Productivity Commission Low Emissions Economy (Final report August 2018) httpswwwproductivitygovtnzsitesdefaultfilesProductivity20Commission_Low-emissions20economy_Final20Report_FINALpdf 40 Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand (May 2018) httpswwwmfegovtnzsitesdefaultfilesmediaClimate20Changeccatwg-report-webpdf

41 Jacinda Ardern Collaborative approach to just transition essential (25 May 2018) httpswwwbeehivegovtnzreleasecollaborative-approach-just-transition-essential 42 Isobel Ewing Jacinda Ardern Climate change is my generations nuclear-free moment (Newshub 20 August 2017) httpswwwnewshubconzhomeelection201708jacinda-ardern-climate-change-is-my-generation-s-nuclear-free-momenthtml

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

29

In April 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Arden announced that the government would issue no further offshore oil exploration permits Parliament passed this decision into law on 7 November 201843

Strong business support also exists for ambitious climate action Over 200 New Zealand businesses community groups and leaders signed a WWF open letter supporting the net zero emissions target in June 201844 One month later a group of major New Zealand businesses that together account for 22 of New Zealandrsquos private sector GDP and one half the countryrsquos gross emissions launched the Climate Leaders Coalition committing to ambitious voluntary action45

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Negotiations are underway between the government and the opposition on the key elements of the Zero Carbon Act Businesses and civil society organisations including WWF-New Zealand have highlighted the importance of this cross-party consensus

We anticipate that these negotiations will conclude soon and that the Zero Carbon Bill will be introduced to Parliament early in 2019 and become law within the following months New Zealand therefore has an opportunity for bipartisan consensus on its long-term decarbonisation trajectory and the key legislative architecture to enable this

It is crucial that all parties in Parliament seize this opportunity The governmentrsquos March 2018 decision to end new offshore oil and gas exploration exposed stark political division between the government and opposition but there is an opportunity now to secure collective action across party lines

Once passed the Zero Carbon Act will provide crucial context for New Zealand to review and enhance its NDC

Recommendations New Zealand has an opportunity to enhance its 2030 ambition to be consistent with limiting warming to 15ordmC this century To do this we recommend that New Zealand

Continue to seek cross-party consensus on climate policy wherever possible

In early 2019 introduce and then pass a Zero Carbon Bill that enacts an all-gases 2050 net zero emissions goal and expressly affirms the 15ordmC goal

Mandate the Climate Commission to urgently develop the first three 5- or 6-year emissions budgets to be set under the Zero Carbon Act

Review its 2030 NDC in 2019 on the basis of the Talanoa Dialogue and the emissions budgets set under the Zero Carbon Act and submit an enhanced NDC in 2019 or 2020

Continue to amend the New Zealand emissions trading scheme to ensure that it has ecological integrity and sets a meaningful price signal and in particular to incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme

Use the upcoming second round of amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to

43 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act 2018

44 WWF-New Zealand Now is the time for climate action (June 2018) httpswwwwwforgnztake_actionclimate_change_open_letter

45 Climate Leaders Coalition httpswwwclimateleaderscoalitionorgnz

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

30

prevent any further extension of existing offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction permits and

set a timeline for ending new onshore oil and gas exploration and extraction

Amend the Resource Management Act 1991 to allow local authorities to consider climate change mitigation in planning decisions

Develop a long-term zero carbon development strategy pursuant to article 4(19) of the Paris Agreement

Continue to further prioritise active public and other low carbon transport modes in future transport plans and budgets begin to price in the externalities of transport emissions and continue to bring funding for road and rail transport further into balance

Implement specific policies to enable goal of reaching 100 renewable electricity generation by 2035 including by reintroducing the ban on new thermal baseload electricity generation and by developing a plan and timetable to transition away from coal and gas generation for peaking

Building on CCATWGrsquos work include an adaptation component in the revised NDC

Continue to work across government and with New Zealand trade unions businesses and civil society organisations to development and implement a Just Transition strategy

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

31

NORWAY CASE STUDY Description of the NDC In its NDC Norway aims to reduce emissions by at least 40 below 1990 by 2030 Though the country is not a member of the EU the NDC will be achieved collectively through an agreement with the EU which also has a collective 40 target Priority areas are transport industry carbon capture and storage renewable energy and shipping Norway also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030 ldquoas part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations also undertake ambitious commitmentsrdquo This condition was met with the Paris Agreement Neutrality will be achieved through the emissions trading market flexible mechanism and international cooperation In its NDC Norway describes its goal as being in line with a 2degC pathway

Progress in implementation Norwayrsquos emissions were higher in 2017 than in 1990 and with todayrsquos policies it will not reach its 202046 or 2030 targets The government projected a decline in emissions of 176 from 2010 to 203047 which is far from the IPCC recommendation that global emissions must be halved in that period The Climate Action Tracker concluded that Norwayrsquos goal for 2030 is inconsistent with the Paris Agreementrsquos goals48 thus it is clear that current policies are even less consistent with the Paris Agreement goals

46 Norwayrsquos pledge under the Kyoto Protocolrsquos second commitment period is 40 by 2020 over the 1990 level

47 Norwegian Ministry of Finance 2018 ldquoMeld St 1 (2018ndash2019) Nasjonalbudsjettet 2019rdquo

48 Climate Action Tracker 2018 Norway httpsclimateactiontrackerorgcountriesnorway

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

32

There are some positive signs Norway passed a Climate Law in 2017 that establishes legally binding emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 and the goal of becoming ldquoa low emission societyrdquo by 2050 meaning 80ndash95 emission reductions below 1990 levels The law requires the government to report on its progress in non-ETS sectors annually to Parliament To make it possible to assess the overall consequences of the state budget in light of Norwayrsquos obligations to limit global warming to 15degC Norway should commit to annual reporting on expected emissions pathways in all sectors from the government to Parliament covering domestic and international operations and activities

In terms of progress in implementation of the priority areas in the NDC we highlight the following

Transport Norway is currently leading the way globally on electric vehicles with a ban on new gas-powered cars by 2025 and has put incentives in place which have been effective In June 2018 electric vehicles made up 25 and hybrids 36 of new cars sold49 Norway is also investing heavily in electric ferries to service communities along its long coastline

Renewable energy In 2018 wind power made up only 2 of Norwayrsquos generation and consumption of electricity the bulk (951) being made up by hydropower50 Interest in building more wind power is increasing however due to lower installation costs and some of the best wind resources in Europe The government has mapped areas suitable and not suitable for new wind energy installments and building on expertise from offshore oil and gas operations the worldrsquos first floating windmills have been built

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Important research projects on the use of CCS in fertilizer and cement production and in waste management are about to go into a pilot phase which could have major implications for global emissions reduction efforts

In addition to government action non-state actors such as cities and businesses are acting Oslorsquos Climate and Energy Strategy51 has been widely praised for its high ambition level with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 50 by 2020 and by 95 by 2030 compared to 1990 It includes an innovative climate budget specifying all measures that will lead to increased or reduced emissions and spells out the necessary measures Concrete actions include reduced private car traffic densification making public transport and heavy-duty vehicles run on renewable energy sources shifting goods transport over to rail and sea phasing out fossil fuels for heating in buildings energy savings in public buildings improved waste management and green public procurement

In 2017 15 sectoral ldquoroadmaps for green competitivenessrdquo were issued by a government appointed committee based on the collective work of actors in agriculturefood production aquaculture finance forestry petroleum the processing industry renewables retail shipping transport waste management and more

Potential for increased ambition There has been a tendency in Norwegian climate politics to set national goals without properly defining the measures necessary to reach them domestically Because emission reductions will often be cheaper in other countries the government has largely made use of flexible mechanisms to offset Norwegian emissions The 2050 carbon neutrality goal is vague while the 2030 goal set in the NDC assumes continued use of flexible mechanisms This is a disincentive for national stakeholders to reduce their share of domestic emissions

49 Din side June 2018 Elbilene gjoslashr rent bord i nybil-salget httpswwwdinsidenomotorelbilene-gjor-rent-bord-i-nybil-salget69984237

50 National Bureau of Statistics 3 October 2018 Electricity httpswwwssbnoenelektrisitet 51 Oslo municipality 2016 ldquoClimate and Energy Strategy for Oslordquo httpswwwoslokommunenogetfilephp13174213InnholdPolitikk20og20administrasjonEtater20og20foretakKlimaetatenDokumenter20og20rapporterClimate20and20Energy20Strategy20for20Oslo20ENGpdf

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

33

A 2017 report released by Oil Change International on behalf of Norwegian NGOs examines the role of Norwegian oil and gas production in a Paris-aligned global carbon budget52 It describes how Norwayrsquos proposed and prospective new oil and gas fields would lead to 150 more emissions than what is in currently operating fields It also concludes that Norway is exporting 10 times more emissions than the country produces at home The emissions embedded in exported fossil fuels are not covered by its NDC The report concludes that Norway can set a global precedent by managing the decline of its existing production to be in line with the Paris goals

Political context in country regarding ambition increase Norway is a stable social democratic welfare state with ample natural resources including petroleum and renewable energy GNP per person was $71800 in 201753 and even though Norwayrsquos electricity supply is based on near 100 renewable energy annual emissions per person were 98 tons in 201854 Political disagreement on climate is largely not over whether Norway should take climate action but over ambition level domestic action versus offsetting abroad and the role of the petroleum industry in a future low carbon welfare society

Recommendations In 2018 Norwegian NGOs published a report commissioned from the Stockholm Environment Institute called ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo55 It takes into account historic responsibility and current economic and technological capacity and concludes that to do its fair share of the global efforts to avoid global warming of over 15degC Norway must contribute emission reductions to the amount of 430 of its domestic emissions in 1990 by 2030 Since domestic reductions of several hundred percent are obviously impossible a new domestic target of at least 53 has been proposed It is critical that a transition to a low carbon society be started at home too not least because of Norwayrsquos unsustainable consumption levels and because the massive wealth is in part based on well-managed petroleum resources The remaining 377 (199 million tons CO2e) will need to be compensated for by financing mitigation in other countries

In terms of increasing ambition of the NDC and increasing mitigation domestically Norway should

Develop a target for domestic emission reductions and sectoral plans for how to reach it

Implement a national carbon budget with sectoral overviews of planned emission reductions and how they relate to the national emission reduction target

Implement new measures for emissions reductions and technology development and export in industry transport the building sector agriculture and energy

Stop issuing any new oil and gas licenses and discontinue new oil exploration activities

Discontinue the tax reimbursement scheme for petroleum companies through which the state reimburses companies for the majority of their investment costs

Draft and implement a strategy for just transition of the Norwegian economy from fossil fuel dependency to sustainable alternatives

52 H McKinnon G Muttitt K Trout 2017 The Skyrsquos Limit Norway Why Norway Should Lead the Way in a Managed Decline of Oil and Gas Extraction httppriceofoilorgcontentuploads201708The-Skys-Limit-Norway-1pdf

53 CIA World factbook ldquoNorwayrdquo httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookgeosprint_nohtml 54 National Bureau of Statistics 2018

55 S Kartha C Holz T Athanasiou 2018 ldquoNorwayrsquos Fair Share of Meeting the Paris Agreementrdquo Written for Friends of the Earth Norway Rainforest Foundation Norway Norwegian Forum for Development and Environment Norwegian Church Aid httpswwwkirkensnodhjelpnoglobalassetslanserte-rapporter2018norways-fair-share-2018_webpdf

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

34

Increase the national CO2 tax to strengthen the polluter-pays principle

Implement measures to curb air traffic such as increased air travel fee discontinuation of duty-free sales and greatly improved rail connections domestically and between the Nordic capitals

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

35

SOUTH AFRICA CASE STUDY Description of the NDC

As the second largest economy in Africa and a member of BASIC constellation under the UNFCCC South Africa carries significant weight in international climate negotiations The current South African NDC is divided into three components ndash adaptation mitigation and support It is the only country to refer to ldquojust transitionrdquo in the NDC On the mitigation front the NDC provides an economy-wide conditional target to remain within the emissions range of 398-614 MtCO2-eq by 2025 and 2030 ndash in the form of a ldquodeviation from business-as-usualrdquo commitment Only the middle to lower end of its NDC target constitutes its fair share of the global mitigation effort required to keep global warming below 2degC as calculated using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator56

The targets are economy-wide covering all sectors and six GHGs ndash with a focus on carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide The target includes emissions from AFOLU The overall approach to the NDC is based on the national climate policy in the National Climate Change Response White Paper and the National Development Plan On adaptation the NDC provides six goals for the time period 2020-30 developing a NAP considering climate in national sub-national and sectoral policy frameworks building institutional capacity developing early warning vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework and adaptation investments

56 WWF-South Africa 2017 ldquoThe Cost of Achieving South Africarsquos Fair Share of Global Climate Change Mitigationrdquo prepared for WWF-South Africa by Hugo van Zyl Yvonne Lewis and James Kinghorn httpswwwdropboxcomserjqgda4rrff19oWWF202017_20Fair20Share20technical20report_Finalpdfdl=0

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

36

Progress in implementation South Africa is an emerging economy with a heavy dependence on fossil fuels particularly coal Accounting for just over one percent of global GHG emissions South Africa is one of the top-20 global emitters South Africarsquos GHG emissions during the time period 2000-12 have grown at an average annual rate of 7 MtCO2e from 434 MtCO2e to 518 MtCO2e57 During the same period the contribution from the energy and waste sectors emissions increased from 789 and 28 to 826 and 42 respectively The AFOLU and Industrial Processes and Product Use sectors witnessed a decline from 106 and 77 to 60 and 72 respectively If the country maintains its average annual emissions growth rate of 74 MtCO2e it will reach the upper limit of its NDC target in 2025 The Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) observes that at the projected year-on-year economic growth rate of 15 this emissions growth rate does not seem likely However climate policy implementation is lagging behind and would benefit from strengthening the institutional capacity needed to coordinate climate action at multiple levels of governance

A number of policy and political interventions are being planned to tackle climate change Notable amongst these are a) carbon tax by the National Treasury b) efforts of the DEA to legislate the Climate Change Bill c) development of a Mitigation System to oversee mitigation in the country and allocate carbon budgets for companies and d) announcement of the establishment of a Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission to oversee the lsquojust transitionrsquo South Africarsquos Mitigation System is proposed to cover all GHG sources and sectors Whether or not carbon offsets and carbon trading should be catered for as part of this emerging policy portfolio and if so in what form is also being debated WWF-SA has made policy inputs to the whole suite including arguing that carbon trading will not be effective in driving emission reductions in the context of South Africarsquos economy and may well yield unintended perverse outcomes58 In particular the proposed carbon tax of R120tCO2e is inadequate for driving mitigation action In addition there are a number of initiatives currently underway at municipal level

Political context in country regarding ambition increase The low-carbon transition agenda and climate action in South Africa faces resistance from fossil-fuel interests that remain embedded in the South African economy These entrenched interests around the fossil economy contest the rationale for strong climate action and just transition by emphasising the ready availability of coal presenting distortionary figures on renewables and ignoring global trends of increasing renewable energy investments Labour on the other hand has been engaging with just transition While it supports transition to a clean energy system it remains cautious about the ability of these measures to address social justice59 Sections of organised labour which in principle support a just transition demand that labour market issues be resolved before fossil fuel jobs can be lost At the same time academia and civil society have been demanding ambitious action from the government on both climate change and just transition

Potential for increased ambition The majority of the countryrsquos emissions come from coal-fired electricity and given that there are clear and affordable solutions to displace coal there is tremendous scope for improvement in the countryrsquos energy system and thus emissions reduction The latest draft of the Department of Energyrsquos Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) provides an overview of energy sector until 2030 and makes provisions for renewable energy and coal-phase out60 However the IRP lacks long-term 57 DEA 2017 South Africarsquos 2nd Annual Climate Change Report 2016 Department of Environmental Affairs Pretoria

58 Arp R amp Upadhyaya P Forthcoming Carbon trading in South Africa Providing flexibility or escape route WWF South Africa Cape Town

59 Cloete K 2018 Numsa supports a transition from dirty energy to clean renewable energy Available online at httpfirstthingdailymaverickcozaarticleid=101902W-6oY-KxXIU Last accessed on 16th Nov 2018

60 DoE 2018 IRP Update 2018 Draft for Comments Department of Energy Pretoria

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

37

strategic thinking61 This is reflected in a) its failure to acknowledge that coal mining is a sunset industry b) an unwillingness to acknowledge that energy transition in many countries is already underway c) an understanding that any delay on South Africarsquos part to initiate the same would significantly undermine its competitiveness and d) an indifference to the changing profile of the global risks ndash from being largely economic in 2008-10 to environmental in 2016-1862 There is an urgent need to make provision for enabling a just transition to a flexible and low-carbon energy system at both national and municipal level This calls for a much more ambitious NDC which makes provisions for addressing climate action and social justice simultaneously

Recommendations To this end for South Africa to meet its fair share of emission reduction and also enable a just transition in the energy sector to a flexible and low-carbon energy system our concrete recommendations are as follows

Take cognizance of the findings of the IPCC in relation to global warming of 15 degC and localise them to the South African context so that the Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission can lead a managed just transition process within the next five years

Establish a carbon tax in the range of R570-R1140tCO2e by 2020 To be able to achieve the 15degC target this price should increase sharply in subsequent years63

Underpin the countryrsquos energy supply planning and mitigation ambition in climate change policy with an understanding of the implications of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC As per the report ldquoCountries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 15degC to 2degCrdquo Being a developing country in the southern hemisphere subtropics it is in South Africarsquos interest that temperature rise is limited to 15 degC And a world consistent with 15degC means a world where lsquorenewables are projected to supply 70-85 of electricity in 2050 hellip while the use of coal shows a steep reduction in all pathways and would be reduced to close to 0 (0-2) of electricityrsquo64 South Africa needs to take substantial measures to delink its growth from fossil fuels

Wind down subsidies to fossil fuels over the next five years to maintain competitiveness of the South African economy in the long run

61 Upadhyaya P amp Scholtz L 2018 IRP 2018 Too little too slowly for energy transition Available online at httpswwwfin24comOpinionirp-2018-too-little-too-slowly-for-energy-transition-20181113 Last accessed 16th Nov 2018 62 World Economic Forum 2018 ldquoThe Global Risks Report 2018 13th editionrdquo

63 World Bank 2017 ldquoHigh-Level Commission on Carbon Prices 2017rdquo Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices Washington DC World Bank

64 IPCC 2018 ldquoGlobal Warming of 15degC Summary for Policymakersrdquo Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Incheon

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

38

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND CASE STUDY Current commitment The UK does not have an NDC it is part of the European Union UK ambition on climate action is set under the UKrsquos Climate Change Act 2008 This world-leading legislation established a legally-binding target for emissions cuts to be delivered using carbon budgets framed by an independent advisory committee and set by the UK Parliament That advisor the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) as well as setting out the carbon budgets reports to Parliament on progress and advises government on actions to meet the budgets alongside advice on and assessment of the UKrsquos adaptation to climate impacts

Under the Act the UK is committed to 80 greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2050 (on a 1990 baseline) ndash a target in line with a 2degC world and not in line with Paris ambition The target covers all sectors ndash power buildings transport waste agriculture as well as land use land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and domestic aviation Currently UK carbon budgets are tied to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and the EU effort sharing decision The former sets an EU-wide cap on power and factory emissions and sets the lsquotradedrsquo part of each UK carbon budget The latter guides national carbon budgets for non-EU ETS sectors International aviation and shipping regarded by the government as outside the domestic remit of any one country are not included in UK carbon reduction planning

The UK reviews climate change adaptation risks and planning every five years in response to Climate Change Risk Assessments supported by advice from the CCC adaptation sub-committee (ASC) A National Adaptation Programme (NAP) sets out UK strategy

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

39

Progress in implementation Provisional figures suggest that in 2017 the UK had cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 since 1990 (down 3 on 2016) This means that the UK has delivered on its first second and third carbon budgets with the third running to 2022 All sectors have seen cuts since 1990 but they are steepest in the power sector where share of generation from renewables is now around 30 up from less than 7 in 2010 LULUCF is a net sink which has increased seven-fold from 1990 to 2016 Reductions from buildings have been steeper in businesses than homes the latter seeing a small increase in the most recent year for which there are detailed breakdowns Transport has seen least progress and is now therefore the single largest source of emissions at 26 with a 2 rise from 2015-2016 - see figure below

Figure source httpswwwgovukgovernmentcollectionsfinal-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics

The CCC estimate that the existing 80 reduction target by 2050 will require 3 emissions cuts each year In September 2017 the UK government published its Clean Growth Strategy a plan for delivering the fourth and fifth carbon budgets There are some welcome policies and targets in the document However there is insufficient detail resource and ambition by their own admission the UK falls 6 and 7 short of delivering on the fourth and fifth budgets respectively Policy announcements since the Clean Growth Strategy have done little to close that gap For instance in summer 2018 the government reaffirmed the UKrsquos commitment not to phase out the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles until 2040 despite widespread support in the private sector and a WWF report showing that bringing it forward to 2030 could halve the gap to delivery of the fifth carbon budget Broader policy announcements are more hopeful In October 2018 a week after publication of the IPCCrsquos Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC the governments of the UK Scotland and Wales jointly commissioned the CCC to provide formal advice on net-zero

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

40

Potential for increased ambition Polling consistently shows strong support for climate action with anything from two-thirds to four-fifths of people concerned about impacts on UK nature and wildlife Support for renewables and zero emission transport is high Younger voters in particular place climate action top of their list of concerns The politics and some of the voices given prominence since the vote for the UK to leave the EU have given a platform for de-regulatory arguments of the sort that act against climate action However they are not dominant and the UK government has made some very welcome commitments around environmental protections to be introduced in place of existing EU law A broad coalition of UK NGOs is campaigning to strengthen those further and to hold the government to delivering their commitments

Recommendations Mindful of the net-zero advice commission from the UK government to the CCC UK NGOs are pressing for ambitious delivery of net zero well before 2050 A new report from WWF and Vivid Economics shows that it is possible to reach net-zero GHG in the UK by 2045 ndash whether contributing to the EU NDC or standing alone if we leave the EU This acknowledges the importance of reducing carbon emissions across UK sectors as a priority over roll-out of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) strategies ndash some of which could affect biodiversity habitats and food production and recognise areas where offsetting could then be applied in order to ensure the UK meets its Paris commitments These are our recommendations

Continue ambitious support for renewable energy deployment including a route to market for the cheapest forms of generation solar and onshore wind

Support a target to end the sale of new petroldiesel vehicles by 2030 with supply-side regulation such as an EV mandate support for consumers to buy electric vehicles and incentives to grow charging infrastructure Policy should help ensure UK industry realises the gains from this transition and boost ambition to address other areas in transport including large goods vehicles and freight

Aviation and shipping remain hard to treat sectors falling significantly behind other areas with regard to alternative technology development Noting the high reliance of this sector on GGR and biofuel the UK cannot support large scale expansion of UK air travel infrastructure such as backing a third runway at Heathrow and it should spend and tax in ways that encourage public transport cycling and walking

Make key decisions on the solutions to heating our homes to enable targeted support to the right technology to hasten decarbonisation of heat This needs to be matched by policy and spending commitments to retro-fit 20 million UK homes with energy efficiency measures and a requirement on the construction sector to build net-zero carbon homes

As part of a green exit from the EU pay UK farmers for public goods ndash especially those which enhance soil and forest sequestration of carbon This must be supported by ambitious commitment to nature-based climate solutions including reforestation and afforestation protection and restoration of peatlands

Invest in development and scaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) Much as we would hope to avoid over-reliance on bio-energy with CCS it will be essential as part of helping industry decarbonise

Re-define our food system including our diet and consumption patterns and our disturbingly high levels of food waste

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

41

VIETNAM CASE STUDY Description of the NDC Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change The costs associated with coping with the impacts of climate change are already high and will continue to rise in the future Vietnam ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and in the same year submitted its NDC Based on its NDC the government developed a national plan containing a more comprehensive strategy for the implementation of the Paris Agreement Overall in its NDC the Vietnamese government committed to reducing GHG emissions by 8 below BAU levels between 2010-2030 by domestic efforts and by 25 contingent on international support In response the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) initiated a comprehensive NDC review and update process which will be completed at the end of 2019 and appointed a task force to revise the first NDC based on a number of stakeholder consultations At the end of August 2018 MONRE organised the Consultation Workshop ldquoTechnical Report on Review and Update of NDCrdquo to present key contents of the first draft of the Technical Report of the revised NDC (NDC2) Major changes included adjustments of the base year emission reduction targets compared to the BAU scenario and the new mitigation sector of lsquoindustrial processes (IP)rsquo to complement the existing ones (energy waste LULUCF and agriculture) MONRE is currently working actively on the adaptation component with all stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs) in Vietnam to complete the first draft of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Potential for increased ambition According to the current analysis under the NDC2 review process instead of the 8 specified in the previous version the Vietnamese government now commits to a tentative 9 GHG emission reduction by domestic means by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario The BAU scenario itself was raised from 7874 MtCO2e emissions to 8888 MtCO2e and the updated base year is 2014 (instead of 2010) There is a sharp increase of the GHG mitigation target in the energy sector from 2946 MtCO2e in NDC1 to 555 MtCO2e in the unconditional scenario On the other hand there is a huge reduction of GHG removal in the LULUCF sector from 2267 MtCO2e down to 46 MtCO2e due to analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) regarding reforestation - with lower expectations of forestry coverage and some other issues in

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

42

land use planning It is surprising that the GHG mitigation target for the energy sector in the tentative NDC2 is the same for both the unconditional and conditional scenarios This will put Vietnam in a very challenging position to request international funding for the energy sector in the future particularly in terms of investment for renewable energy and energy efficiency

Currently in Vietnam WWF is supporting four cities (Dong Ha Hue Da Nang and Hoi An) under One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) project to achieve GHG emission reduction by 2030 However to date the NDC2 review process has not taken these potential amounts into account Moreover many climate change mitigation models implemented by CSOs at the grass root level have not been considered in the calculation process of the NDC2

Political context in country regarding ambition increase In Vietnam the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) leads on environmental regulation that affects energy production transport and consumption it also leads on climate change policies including the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Currently MONRE is leading the NDC review process to submit a revised NDC to the UNFCCC in 2019 The energy sector is led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) which develops most energy related policies The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has a central role in for example production and use of biogas from livestock waste and the use of agricultural residues for cooking and heating It also plays a role in the cases where energy production requires combined land use (for example wind or solar PV power combined with livestock vegetables or aquaculture) In addition NGOs work on community initiatives such as Local Energy Planning promoting technologies for cooking water heating solar PV waste management composting biomass gasification circular agricultural production and biogas which are supplied by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) For example under the OPCC project three cities in Vietnam commit to GHG mitigation by 2030 as shown below

CITY COMMITMENT BY 2030

TON OF CO2

Da Nang 3524000 25

Hoi An 271000 20

Dong Ha 309000 15

MONRE has limited power over energy decisions although it is generally supportive of clean sustainable energy and energy efficiency and it has some influence over related decisions Therefore it is still a challenge for MONRE to reach agreement with MOIT to reduce GHG emission from energy sector and increase the commitment for GHG emission reduction in NDC2

As highlighted in draft technical report for NDC2 the largest source of Vietnamrsquos present and future GHG emissions is the energy sector because of the use of fossil fuels in electricity

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

43

production transport and industrial processes The production of electricity is the primary source of future energy emissions The rapid increase from 2010 to 2030 in the BAU is mainly the result of a rapid increase in coal-power and gas-power to respond to rising electricity demand and fossil fuel use in the manufacturing industry and transport These are also the areas where the largest emissions reductions are possible and must be achieved In the policy context there are several policies through which WWF-Vietnam can work and advocate for higher ambition of GHG emission reduction in the NDC review process for the energy sector

The formulation of the Power Development Plan 8 for the period 2021-2030 (with an outlook to 2040) for which preparations have already started

The formulation of the National Energy Development Strategy (expected 2021-2035 with an outlook to 2060) which might or might not include a major shift from the development and use of fossil fuels or of renewable energy

The formulation of regional development plans such as the ongoing master planning in the Mekong Delta that could have major implications for eg planning of power generation capacity and emissions from agriculture and waste

The Agenda 2030 with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will be very helpful and provide potential for advocacy on clean energy (Goal 7) and climate action (Goal 13) In addition the Paris Agreement implementation plan is one of the main plans in Vietnam in the climate change sector which 63 provinces should implement and contribute to the mitigation component commitment at the national level

Recommendations Specific actions Vietnam for advocating for higher ambitions regarding GHG emission reduction and the National Adaptation Plan in NDC2 are

CSOs to

Showcase low-carbon development alternatives and highlight the supportive role of NGOs

Analyse the current gaps in the NDC revision process and highlight best practices on how to close them

Showcase ways to integrate Joint Principles of Adaptation (JPA) as well as good adaptation models developed by NGOs into the Paris Agreement Implementation Plan at both national and provincial levels particularly for the NAP

Governments to

Integrate the GHG mitigation from NGO projects and integrate them into the GHG emission reduction inventory

Invite civil society think tanks the private sector and other interest groups to play an active and supportive role in the NDC revision process create regular opportunities for public participation during the ongoing revision process as well as during the implementation and monitoring phase By opening the process to the CSO network and the wider public tasks can be outsourced existing knowledge used and burdens shared

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

44

NON-STATE ACTOR RESPONSES Non-state actors (cities regions businesses and civil society) have a role to play in both delivering the NDCs and going beyond them to raise ambition

Through their investments and actions they affect the direction and performance of the economy and shape public perception and political support for climate action The importance of their role is recognised both in the Paris Agreement and in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 15degC According to the UN Environment Gap Report65 ldquomore than 7000 cities from 133 countries and 245 regions from 42 countries along with more than 6000 companies with at least US$ 36 trillion in revenue have pledged mitigation actionrdquo

Non-state actors can contribute by taking action individually For example since 2011 WWF has run the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) (wwwpandaorgcities) to highlight cities across the globe acting on climate change and their inspiring solutions The OPCC has engaged over 400 cities across nearly 30 countries and from 2019 will focus on citiesrsquo alignment with a 15degC goal The performance of cities varies reflecting different national and local circumstances capacities policy and political contexts urbanisation trends and priorities Lower-income cities largely focus on addressing poverty while high-income cities focus more on sustainable consumption But the clear message is that local governments can and are leading the charge on addressing climate change all over the world each within their national circumstances Likewise many businesses are aligning their targets with the science of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals - more than 480 have committed to Science Based Targets

However individual action is not enough Many more non-state actors need to be engaged at the national level to accelerate the transition towards low-carbon climate-resilient development In addition state and non-state actors need to work together to address the systemic barriers to accelerating climate action and increasing ambition For example cities WWF has engaged with in the One Planet City Challenge (OPCC) have found that lack of access to finance capacities and expertise political power to execute key transformative projects and availability of data about what is going on within their boundaries are ultimately limiting factors for executing transformative change Concerted collective action across non-state actor constituencies and collective constructive engagement with national governments are critical to overcome these challenges

Over the past year and a half cities regions companies academia and civil society have also been joining forces to champion climate action in their countries through national multi-stakeholder coalitions National multi-stakeholder coalitions have been established in the United States (We Are Still In) Japan (the Japan Climate Initiative) and Mexico (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara) and Argentina (Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica Argentina) and a global network Alliances for Climate Action (ACA)66 was launched

65 httpswedocsuneporgbitstreamhandle205001182226093NonState_Emissions_Gappdfsequence=1ampisAllowed=y

66 Alliances for Climate Action provides information and technical support to domestic multi-stakeholder coalitions to implement bold collaborative actions in line with 15degC build domestic public support for climate action and collectively engage with national governments to help deliver and enhance national climate targets Alliances for Climate Action also connects domestic coalitions with each other and elevates their voices internationally to encourage other non-State actors and national governments to accelerate climate action and up ambition together ACA global partners include C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CDP the Climate Action Network Fundacioacuten Avina The Climate Group the We Mean Business Coalition and WWF working together with leading organizations at the national level

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

45

Together the potential from non-state actors is large In the Bonn-Fiji Commitment of Local and Regional Leaders at COP23 city leaders and networks declared their commitments which could collectively decrease emissions by 13 GtCO2e per year from business as usual in 2030 A recent study concluded that if cooperative initiatives (groups of non-state and state actors working together) delivered on their commitments and countries on their NDCs then emissions in 2030 would be consistent with a path to well below 267 This conclusion depends on a number of assumptions - chiefly that commitments will be delivered

Non-state actors can contribute to accelerating climate action and raising ambition of NDCs but to do so governments need to

Set a clear long-term path to a zero-carbon and resilient future that provides companies investors local and subnational governments and other actors the right signals for long-term investments

Establish processes to inform non-state actors about the countryrsquos national climate commitments (NDCs) and engage them systematically in the process of NDC implementation

Engage with non-state actors to understand the contributions that they can make towards NDCs and the enabling conditions that are needed Lessons can be learnt from existing pilots of vertical integration strategies for national and subnational governments in for example Colombia and Indonesia which could be improved and replicated elsewhere

Put in place enabling policy conditions that facilitate rather than stifle leadership efforts by non-state actors to reduce their carbon footprint and increase their climate preparedness For example set the conditions needed to shift finance to low carbon and resilient investments and use public money to crowd in private capital In the context of urban development design national urban policies that support citiesrsquo efforts with a focus on key areas developing compact and connected urban areas promoting renewable and

67 Data Driven Yale New Climate Institute PBL 2018 Global climate action of regions states and businesses Research Report httpdatadrivenyaleeduwp-contentuploads201808YALE-NCI-PBL_Global_climate_actionpdf

In the United States non-state actors have needed to carry the burden of ambition-raising while navigating the reality of a federal government which was rolling back its efforts Since launching in the days after President Trumprsquos announcement of his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in June 2017 We Are Still In (WASI) has tripled in size now totaling over 3500 institutions including local and state government businesses large and small investors colleges and universities tribes healthcare cultural institutions and faith communities Signatories represent 155 million Americans across all 50 states accounting for US $945 trillion GDP The individual ambition levels and footprints of these signatories varies but in 2018 they brought forward hundreds of new commitments through the ldquoWe Are Taking Actionrdquo campaign and saw their efforts and impact potential quantified in the latest Americas Pledge report

The Alianza para la Accioacuten Climaacutetica de Guadalajara (Alliance for Climate Action-Guadalajara) was launched in August 2018 by leaders from the 2nd largest metropolitan area in Mexico The Alianza currently consists of over 35 Mexican entities including the local government of the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area the University of Guadalajara the government of the state of Jalisco as well as Mexican companies and civil society organizations Signatories have pledged not only to undertake actions individually but also to implement climate actions jointly in order to increase their collective impact In addition they plan to engage actors in other regions of the country and the national government to accelerate the implementation of Mexicorsquos climate targets and leverage domestic opportunities for higher ambition

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together

46

efficient energy that powers the built environment and urban transport and implementing efficient waste management systems

Incorporate ambitious non-state commitments and actions into NDCs The Global Compact of Mayors for example is implementing a platform to raise ambition by supporting integration of city commitments and actions into national plans and the global framework

Continue to improve transparency of action and results to build confidence in delivery of commitments and to inspire others

CONCLUSIONS Improving and strengthening NDCs is not a trivial task However many processes and events that took place in 2018 such as the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA) the UNFCCCrsquos technical examination of measures and policies for mitigation and adaptation and the Talanoa Dialogue have demonstrated that there is serious action on the ground The IPCC Special Report on 15degC has provided the evidence needed We expect that the political will of countries can be expressed through strong commitments in COP 24 The United Nations Secretary General Summit in 2019 will be another key moment for ambitious NSA actions and commitments to be incorporated in NDCs

It will be essential for a group of frontrunner countries to drive progress on more ambition and bring others along While NDCs can and need to be improved in many ways our overarching concern is to close the mitigation gap identified by the IPPC Special Report the latest UNEP emissions gap report and in many other analyses as soon as possible In this paper we have offered an initial selection of potential drivers and tools but much more is out there that can be done to stop the climate crisis We are counting on state and non-state actors to take on this challenge together