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Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
Supporting the Secretary’s Top Priorities
Brad Berkson,
Director, OSD Program Analysis and Evaluation
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
Agenda
• Financial Realities
• FY08 Budget Overview
• Strategic Planning
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
Trends in Federal Spending(Outlays in billion of current dollars)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Fiscal Years
Total Federal Outlays
Mandatory
Nondefense Discretionary
Defense Discretionary
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
Defense Spending in Context
40%
20%
1945 1965 1985 2005
Vietnam8.9%
Korea11.7% Gulf War
4.5% GWOT3.9%
DoD Outlays as Percent of GDP
DoD Outlays as Percent of GDP
WWII34.5%
• Defense spending is 3.9 percent of GDP– Lowest level for any
previous period of conflict
• This is significantly higher than our NATO allies– France: 2.5 percent
– UK: 2.3 percent
– Germany: 1.4 percent
– All NATO: 1.7 percent
Source: Source: Historical Table, Budget of the United States Government; FY 2007 President’s Budget
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
1945 1965 1985 2005
WWII82.5%
Vietnam43.4%
Gulf War19.8%
GWOT (2008)20.1%
DoD Outlays as Percent of Federal Spending
DoD Outlays as Percent of Federal Spending
Korea57.2%
199519751955
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
Total DoD Budget Authority
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
FY
06$B
KO
RE
A
VIE
TN
AM
RE
AG
AN
BU
ILD
-UP
GU
LF
WA
R
GW
OT
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
Benefits Growth from Past Congressional Actions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
TRICARE for Life Reservists HealthcareFamily Separation Allowance Survivor Benefit ProgramRedux Repeal Concurrent ReceiptEnhanced Death Benefits
$22.8B
Billions $
$17.4B
$12.7B
$21.4B$20.0B
$19.0B
Growth between FY03 ~ FY10
$13.9 Billion
$16.4B
$8.9B
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
Agenda
• Financial Realities
• FY08 Budget Overview
• Strategic Planning
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
142
435481
302 328 375 377 403 421
7091
1417
76114
69
93
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08
DoD Base Budget and non-GWOT Supps. Supplemental
President’s Budget FY07 Allowance
Source: National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2007, Table 1-9
Investing in America’s Defense(Dollars in Billions)
FY07 Supplemental Request
FY08 GWOT Request
316345
443468 479
535
598 623
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
Defense Budget
Source: Defense Appropriation Act and Emergency Supplemental Appropriation FY 2007 and FY 2008 DoD Budget Request
$432.4BFY07
Projected Enacted
Appropriation(Do
llar
s in
Bil
lio
ns)
FY07 Emergency SupplementalFY08 GWOT RequestFY08 Base Budget
• Increase Combat Capability
• Improve Force Readiness
•Develop Future Combat Capabilities
• Improve Quality of Life
• Increase Combat Capability
• Improve Force Readiness
•Develop Future Combat Capabilities
• Improve Quality of Life
•Prevail in the Global War on Terror
•Prevail in the Global War on Terror
$481.4B
$623.1B
$141.7B
FY07 FY08
$595.8B
$70.0B
$93.4B
$70.0B
$432.4BFY07
Projected Enacted
Appropriation
Priorities
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
Source: Defense Appropriation Act and Emergency Supplemental Appropriation FY 2007 and FY 2008 DoD Budget Request; FY06 Base Structure Report
The FY 2008 President’s Budget for Defense: $481.4B
30%
28%
4%
38%
Improves Force Readiness and Modernizes Warfighting Capabilities
Military Pay & Healthcare ($137.0B)
Family Housing & Facilities ($21.1B)
Strategic Modernization ($176.8B)
Readiness & Support ($146.5B)
$481.4B
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
$432.4 $481.4
FY07 FY08
Note: *Projected enacted totalSource: Defense Appropriation Act and Emergency Supplemental Appropriation FY 2007 and FY 2008 DoD Budget Request
Budget Provides Real Increases to Support the Warfighter
(Do
llar
s in
Bil
lio
ns)
+$49.0B
FY07FY07*
Improve Force Readiness &
Support+$16.8B
34%
Develop Future Capabilities
+$8.8B18%
Improve Quality of
Life+$11.3B
23%
FY07* FY08
Increase Ground Forces+$12.1B
25%
Base Budget Increases by $49.0B (+11.3%)Over Projected Enacted Level – Real Rate of Growth is 8.6%
+$49.0BFY08
+$49.0BFY08
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
Develop Future Capabilities
– 1 Aircraft Carrier
– 1 Submarine
– 1 Amphibious Assault Ship
– 1 Logistics Ship
– 3 Littoral Combat Ships
– 1 Joint High Speed Vessel
– 20 F-22A Raptor
– 24 F/A-18 Hornet
– 18 E/A-18G Growler
– 12 F-35 Joint Strike Fighter
– 21 MV-22 Osprey
– 5 CV-22
– UAVs
– Recapitalization of Missiles and Weapons
–Future Combat System:
• Manned and unmanned vehicles
• Non-line of sight launch system
• Joint network
–Space-Based Infrared Systems
–Communications Satellites
–GPS satellites
–Advanced Extremely High Frequency Satellite
–Environmental Satellites
–Launch Vehicles
+$8.8B
+$8.8BFY08
+$8.8BFY08
FY08 Budget Strengthens Current and Future Capabilities
Joint MaritimeCapabilities
Joint AirCapabilities
Joint GroundCapabilities
Space-basedCapabilities
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
Increased Combat Capability with Predictability
48 Brigade Combat Teams
Current Baseline FY 2012 Goal
42 Brigade Combat Teams Adds 65K Soldiers
+6 Brigade Combat Teams
Note: Number of BCTs in current state represent funded modular conversions, not force availability.
Add of 92,000 Ground Forces Increases Combat Capability and Doubles Time at Home Station
• 482.4K Soldiers
• 1 year Home Station for 1 year Deployed
• 547.4K Soldiers
• 2 years Home Station for 1 year Deployed
+$12.1BFY08
+$12.1BFY08
Army
Marines
3 Marine Expeditionary Forces
2.5 Marine Expeditionary Forces
Adds 27K Marines
Fills out 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force
• 175K Marines
• 7 months Home Station for 7 months Deployed
• 202K Marines
• 14 months Home Station for 7 months Deployed
Deliberative Working Document - PredecisionalSource: Defense Appropriation Act and Emergency Supplemental Appropriation FY 2007 and FY 2008 DoD Budget Request
FY 2008 GWOT Request
Source: Defense Appropriation Act and Emergency Supplemental Appropriation FY 2007 and FY 2008 DoD Budget Request
Reconstitution $37.6B
Security Forces: $4.7BMilitary Intelligence $2.7B
Coalition Support & CERP: $2.7B
Military Construction: $0.7B
Operations $70.6B
Non-DoD Classified $5.9B
Continuing the Fight Reconstituting the Force Enhancing U.S. Forces
Force Protection & IED Defeat: $15.2B
Request Provides Resources for Our Warfighters to Succeed
$141.7B
U.S. Forces: $1.6B
Accel. BCTs / RCT $1.6B
Continuing the Fight: $102.5B
(Permanent End Strength: $4.9B)
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
CONPLAN 7500Baseline Funding (CONPLAN 7500 / QDR Reserve)
FYDP +$3.9B
• Fund enduring GWOT sub-regional campaign plans• Improve battlespace awareness and counterterrorism analysis• Procure small commercial aircraft for GWOT engagement
activities• Other capability enhancements: CENTCOM infrastructure
improvements, foreign language incentives, personnel recovery programs, centers of excellence, etc.
Bridge Funding FYDP +$1.8B• Sustain / enhance CENTCOM C4
• Other capability enhancements: countermeasures for VIP aircraft, airborne ISR and medium aircraft leases for sub-regional campaign plans, etc.
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
Future Combat System
• Army POM restructures the FCS program
• Saves $110M FY08 and $3B across FYDP • Saves ~ $15B over the program (10%)• Reduces BCT average cost from $6.7B to $5.9B
• Cancels 4 systems: • Two classes of UAVs• Armed Reconnaissance Vehicle• Intelligent Munitions System
• Slows fielding from 1.5 FCS BCTs/yr to 1.0 FCS BCTs/yr
• Delays fielding 6 months• Completes fielding by FY30 vice FY25
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
Joint Strike Fighter
• Service POM 08 submissions funded procurement of two CTOL and no STOVL aircraft in FY08– PB07 had eight CTOL and eight STOVL aircraft in FY08
• Congress reduced FY07 procurement from 5 to 2 CTOL aircraft and funded long lead procurement of six CTOL and six STOVL aircraft in FY08– Directed funding of alternate engine in FY07 and beyond
• DepSecDef directed Services to fund the six CTOL and six STOVL aircraft in FY08 consistent with Congressional action (FY08 +$1.8B)– Risk in STOVL First Flight date– Alternate engine not funded
• Modest procurement reductions over FY09-13 (total of 17 A/C against POM08 submissions) to pay for:– Differences in Services re-pricing in POM08– SDD growth recognized by JPO
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
Agenda
• Financial Realities
• FY08 Budget Overview
• Strategic Planning
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
• Shape/Prepare no longer lesser included
• Forces not resized to strategy, leading to mismatch
QDR 1997
Threat Based Capabilities Based
Force Planning Focus for Ongoing Efforts
2 MTW Force
Sh
ape
Res
po
nd
Pre
par
e
QDR 2001DEFEND THE U.S.
DETER FORWARDEurope, SWA, NEA, EAL
SWIFTLY DEFEAT ENEMYEFFORTS
2 of 4 Critical Areas
WIN DECISIVELY1 of 2 Conflicts
SMALL-SCALECONTINGENCIES
In Non-Critical Regions
GENERATION FORCE
C4ISR, MOBILITY
STRATEGIC RESERVE Frequency Number Scale / Intensity Concurrency Ops Risks Duration
Policy Environment Partner Capabilities
Frequency Number Scale / Intensity Concurrency Ops Risks Duration
Policy Environment Partner Capabilities
Sizing Variables:
QDR 2006
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
Irregular Unconventional methods adopted and
employed by non-state and state actors to counter stronger state opponents. (erode our power)
Disruptive International competitors developing and
possessing breakthrough technological capabilities intended to supplant U.S. advantages in particular operational domains. (marginalize our power)
Traditional States employing legacy and advanced
military capabilities and recognizable military forces, in long-established, well-known forms of military competition and conflict. (challenge our power)
Catastrophic Acquisition, possession, and possible
employment of WMD or methods producing WMD-like effects against vulnerable, high-profile targets by terrorists and rogue states. (paralyze our power)
Security Environment: 4 Challenges
LIKELIHOOD
VU
LN
ER
AB
ILIT
Y
Lower Higher
Higher
Lower
Capabilities-based planning should apportion risk across challengesCapabilities-based planning should apportion risk across challenges
(e.g., terrorism, insurgency, civil war, and emerging concepts like “unrestricted warfare”)
(e.g., conventional air, sea, land forces, and nuclear forces of established nuclear powers)
(e.g., sensors, information, bio or cyber war, ultra miniaturization, space, directed-energy, etc)
(e.g., homeland missile attack, proliferation from a state to a non-state actor, devastating WMD attack on ally)
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
What Drives Our Thinking / Time / Energy
• Budgets / FYDP• War Plans• TPFDD (Time-Phased Force Deployment
Data)• Requirements• Risk Assessments (Timelines)
Do these Processes Help Us Fight…Will our Investment ($3T / FYDP) Counter/Eliminate...
An Elusive Enemy What is the Definition of Victory in the GWOT?
Deliberative Working Document - Predecisional
Final Thoughts
Are We…• In a War
• Likely to Fight Massed Armies / Navies
• Countering Nation States
• Dealing with a Distant, Short-Lived Problem
Or…• In a Struggle
• Likely to Fight Small Groups / Networks
• Countering Extremists (Supported by Nation States?)
• Dealing with a Threat to World Freedom
While maintaining conventional forces that can dealwith emerging world situations