Delays at Logan Airport

Group – B3

Abhishek Pathak (2012065)Ankit Jha(2012070)

Kunal Parmar (2012085)Saket Singh (2012103)

Shubham Agnihotri (2012108)Sunny Kohli (2012117)

IntroductionLocated in the East Boston neighbourhood of Boston,

Massachusetts, USRanked as fifth most significantly delayed airport in 2001Average of 47.5 delays per 1,000 flightsUsage in 2001 – 479,000 annual operationsDemand projected in 2015 – 510,000 to 656,000 annual

operations

Causes of delayDelay due to weather condition

70-75% delay nationwide

Strong northeast windsOnly two or one runway can be usedCapacity dropped to 40-60 operations per hour

Use of less than 3 runway due to adverse condition

Normal condition Adverse weather

Delays 70-75% + 5 – 12%

Operation per hr 118-126 78-88

Mix of Airplanes40% of runway used by small, non-jet airplane, carrying between

9 -34 passengers16 – 19 % runways used by regional jets carrying 35-70

passengers Over scheduling

when they schedule more flights than the airport can possibly handle

Increase in number annual passengers to 37.5 million projected in 2015

Location90% of flights starts and ends thereArrival in uniform mannerVery little slack in system to recover from delays

Peak period pricingPer Plane delay time, operational and passenger delay cost

Normal good weather capacity Number of server – 2 Passenger load factor – 70% Arrival rate – 50 planes/hr

Cost (Avg per plane per hr)

19 seat turbo 348

150 seat 1,585

Regional jets 640

Passenger’s time 25.7

Arrival rate(planes per hour)

Service rate Average delay

50 30 6.55

55 30 12.52

59 30 60.50

Total cost

Cost (average per

plane per hr)

For arrival rate - 50

For arrival rate - 55

For arrival rate - 59

19 seat turbo 348 75.25 143.96 695.60 150 seat

1,585 467.29 893.95 4,319.48 Regional jets 640 167.95 321.29 1,552.43

Delay costs according to FAA There are only delay costs associated with an arrival rate of 59,

delay time: 60.5-15= 45.5

Arrival Rate (planes per

hour)Service Rate

Avg Delay (minutes)

FAA rule of 15 min delay

50 30 6.55 0

55 30 12.52 0

59 30 60.50 45.50

Delay costs according to FAANew Delay Cost

  Cost (avg per plane per hr)

For Arrival Rate = 50

For Arrival Rate = 55

For Arrival Rate = 59

19 seater turbo plane 348 0.00 0.00 523.15

150 seat plane 1,585 0.00 0.00 3,248.61

regional jets 640 0.00 0.00 1,167.56

The average delay time seems to be reasonable as the difference between average delay time for arrival rate of 55 and arrival rate of 59 is very high

Delay costs according to FAAPeak period pricing seems to be a good option as decrease

in arrival rate reduces the delay cost by greater rate.

Impact of peak period landing fee

Aircraft Class Seating CapacityEstimated Revenue Per Passanger

Landing Fee Total Revenue

Landing Fee/Total Revenue per flight

Turboprop 19 230 100 3,059 3.27%

Turboprop 19 230 150 3,059 4.90%

Turboprop 19 230 200 3,059 6.54%

Regional Jet 50 154 100 5,390 1.86%

Regional Jet 50 154 150 5,390 2.78%

Regional Jet 50 154 200 5,390 3.71%

Conventional Jet 150 402 100 42,210 0.24%

Conventional Jet 150 402 150 42,210 0.36%

Conventional Jet 150 402 200 42,210 0.47%

Impact of peak Period pricing on magnitude for airplane mixPeak Period Demand 60      

Landing Fees 100      

  Turboprop

Regional Jet Conventional Jet

Total

Airplane Mix 40% 18% 42%  

Airplane 24 11 25  

  19 50 150  

  230 154 402  

Total Revenue 73416 58212 1063692 1195320

Total landing Fees 2400 1080 2520 6000

Landing Fees/Total Revenue

3.269% 1.855% 0.237% 0.502%

Peak Period Demand 60      

Landing Fees 150        Turboprop Regional Jet Conventional Jet Total

Airplane Mix 40% 18% 42%  

Airplane 24 11 25  

  19 50 150  

  230 154 402  

Total Revenue 73416 58212 1063692 1195320

Total landing Fees 3600 1620 3780 9000

Landing Fees/Total Revenue 4.904% 2.783% 0.355% 0.753%

Peak Period Demand 60      

Landing Fees 200      

  Turboprop Regional Jet Conventional Jet Total

Airplane Mix 40% 18% 42%  

Airplane 24 11 25  

  19 50 150  

  230 154 402  

Total Revenue 73416 58212 1063692 1195320

Total landing Fees 4800 2160 5040 12000

Landing Fees/Total Revenue 6.538% 3.711% 0.474% 1.004%

Peak Period Demand 60      

Landing Fees 100      

  Turboprop Regional Jet Conventional Jet Total

Airplane Mix 20% 30% 50%  

Airplane 12 18 30  

  19 50 150  

  230 154 402  

Total Revenue 36708 97020 1266300 1400028Total landing Fees 1200 1800 3000 6000Landing Fees/Total Revenue 3.269% 1.855% 0.237% 0.429%

For 20-30-50 Ratio

Peak Period Demand 60 Landing Fees 150

  Turboprop Regional Jet Conventional Jet TotalAirplane Mix 20% 30% 50% Airplane 12 18 30   19 50 150   230 154 402 Total Revenue 36708 97020 1266300 1400028Total landing Fees 1800 2700 4500 9000

Landing Fees/Total Revenue 4.904% 2.783% 0.355% 0.643%

Peak Period Demand 60 Landing Fees 200

  Turboprop Regional Jet Conventional Jet TotalAirplane Mix 20% 30% 50% Airplane 12 18 30   19 50 150   230 154 402 Total Revenue 36708 97020 1266300 1400028Total landing Fees 2400 3600 6000 12000

Landing Fees/Total Revenue 6.538% 3.711% 0.474% 0.857%

It would have significant effect (for airplane mix of 40-18-42) during peak period as landing fee would have higher cost effect for turboprop as the proportion of landing fee with total revenue is higher. Hence, there would be a decrease in the arrival rate of turboprops during the peak period.

The similar impact would be less for the airplane mix of 20-30-50.

Extent to which savings in delay cost that result from demand mgmt. Offset period fees

  Total Cost      

 For Arrival Rate = 50

Saving (arrival rate from 55 to 50) Landing Fee Net Saving

19 seater turbo plane 75.3 68.7 100.0 93.5

150 seat plane 467.3 426.7 100.0 59.4

regional jets 167.9 153.3 100.0 85.4

         

 For Arrival Rate

= 55Saving (arrival rate from 59 to 55)    

19 seater turbo plane 144.0 551.6 150.0 557.7

150 seat plane 893.9 3425.5 150.0 2681.6

regional jets 321.3 1231.1 150.0 1059.9

         

 For Arrival Rate

= 59      

19 seater turbo plane 695.6   200.0 -695.6

150 seat plane 4319.5   200.0 -4319.5

regional jets 1552.4   200.0 -1552.4

Arrival rate exceeds service rate during one period

If the arrival rate is more than service rate then there would be huge waiting line of planes. Airplanes would have to be diverted to other airports or have to wait in air. This would also result in cancellation of flights. In any case, Cost involved would be tremendous.

Estimated Delay Times and Costs

  Cost (avg per plane per hr)

19 seater turbo plane 348

150 seat plane 1,585

regional jets 640

   

Passenger's time 25.7

Arrival Rate (planes per hour) Service Rate Avg Delay (minutes)

55 60 6.58

  Cost (avg per plane per hr) Total Cost

19 seater turbo plane 348 75.65

150 seat plane 1,585 469.76

regional jets 640 168.83

If Logan drops to two total runways in operation, with a capacity of 22.5 arrivals per hour each, or to one runway with an average of capacity of 30 arrivals per hour then the delay costs and delay times will be astronomical and they will have to divert planes to other airports.

Thank you…