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The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
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Indian Food Security and Climate Change Agriculture Future
Deepak Shah*, P K Joshi, Gerald C Nelson, Daniel Mason‐D’Croz and Amanda Palazzo
* Gokhle Institute of Political EconomyInternational Food Policy Research Institute
Outline
• Background• Salient characteristics of Indian agriculture
• Socio‐economic characteristics• Bio‐physical characteristics
• Scenarios for adaptation• Agricultural vulnerable scenario• Agriculture and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation• Conclusions and the way forward
Background
• Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change• Higher temperatures may reduce yields• Encourage weed and pests proliferation• Greater variation in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short‐term crop failure and long‐run production decline
• Adversely affect availability and prices of food commodities domestically and at international markets
• Negative impact on income from agricultural production both on the farm and country level
Background ‐ Key challenges
• Mounting population growth• Population has reached 1.2 billion
Background ‐ Key challenges
• Mounting population growth• Population has reached 1.2 billion• Population in India will continue to grow even as the population in China plateaus
• India will pass China as most populous country by 2030Population (billion) Share of World Population
Background ‐ Key challenges
• Mounting population growth• Widespread poverty
• More than 300 million people; 1/4th of the world’s poor
Population living in povertyStates 2004‐05 (%)Andhra Pradesh 15.8Assam 19.7Bihar 41.4Chhattisgarh 40.9Delhi 14.7Gujarat 16.8Haryana 14.0Himachal Pradesh 10.0Jammu & Kashmir 5.4Jharkhand 40.3Karnataka 25.0Kerala 15.0Madhya Pradesh 38.3Maharashtra 30.7Orissa 46.4Punjab 8.4Rajasthan 22.1Tamil Nadu 22.5Uttar Pradesh 32.8Uttarakhand 39.6West Bengal 24.7All India 27.5Source: Planning Commission and NSSO 61st Round
Source: IFPRI estimates from GRUMP for 2000.(Center for International Earth Science Information Network Columbia University 2004)
Poverty in India over time
Source: Planning Commission and NSSO 61st Round
Background ‐ Key challenges
• Mounting population growth• Widespread poverty• Inadequate physical and social infrastructure• Large scale rural‐urban migration
• Limited non‐agricultural employment opportunities• Insufficient access to quality education• Gradual depletion and degradation of natural resources• Diversion of land and water to non‐agriculture uses• Market fluctuation and high food inflation• Changing agricultural trade regime
Agriculture’s Role in the Economy• Per Capita GDP is increasing, but agriculture’s share of the overall economy has been falling
Agriculture’s Role in the Economy• Per Capita GDP is increasing, but agriculture’s share of the overall economy has been falling
• Agriculture sector employs about 52% population, and contributes around 18% of GDP
Year India ChinaGDP per capita (US$)
% share of agriculture in
GDP
GDP per capita (US$)
% share of agriculture in
GDP1997 428 24.7 810 17.52000 448 21.7 956 14.92005 713 16.7 1766 15.22006 791 17.4 2137 13.12007 981 18.0 2649 11.0
Agriculture’s Role in the Economy• Per Capita GDP is increasing, but agriculture’s share of the overall economy has been falling
• Agriculture sector employs about 52% population, and contributes around 18% of GDP
• Agriculture accounts for 65‐70 percent of rural incomes• Growth in the agricultural sector has been sluggish
Year Total Pop.Annual Growth
Rate (%)Rural Pop.
1951 361.1 1.25 298.61961 439.2 1.96 360.31971 548.2 2.22 439.01981 683.3 2.20 523.91991 846.4 2.14 628.92001 1028.7 1.95 742.6
Area, Value, and Consumptions Shares
Area Value
FAOSTATConsumption
Area, Value, and Consumptions Shares
Area Value
FAOSTATConsumption
• Key Food Grains:• Rice
Area, Value, and Consumptions Shares
Area Value
FAOSTATConsumption
• Key Food Grains:• Rice• Wheat
Area, Value, and Consumptions Shares
Area Value
FAOSTATConsumption
• Key Food Grains:• Rice• Wheat
• Vegetables and Pulses
Climate Change in India• India spans many different ecological, geographic, and climatic zones
• 15 Agro‐climatic zones:• Western Himalayas• Eastern Himalayas• Lower Gangetic Plains• Middle Gangetic Plains• Upper Gangetic Plains• Trans Gangetic Plains• Eastern Plateau and Hill Region• Central Plateau and Hill Region• Western Plateau and Hill Region• Southern Plateau and Hill Region• East Coast Plains and Hill Region• West Coast Plains and Ghat Region• Gujarat Plains and Ghat Region• Western Dry Region• Island Region
• 6 Agro‐ecological zones• Arid• Semi‐arid• Dry‐sub humid• Moist sub humid• Humid• Per humid
Climate Change in India• India spans many different ecological, geographic, and climatic zones• Climate change is expected to:
• Increase average temperatures• Change precipitation patterns• Increase weather volatility and frequency of extreme weather events
Climate Change in India• India spans many different ecological, geographic, and climatic zones• Climate change is expected to:
• Increase average temperatures• Change precipitation patterns• Increase weather volatility and frequency of extreme weather events
• Local climate change effects may vary greatly due to• Geography• Available water resources
Changes in annual precipitation between 2000‐2050Change in precip (mm)
CNRM‐CM3 GCM CSIRO‐MK3 GCM
ECHAM5 GCM MIROC3.2
Changes in maximum temperature 2000‐50Change in annual maximum temperature
CNRM‐CM3 GCM CSIRO‐MK3 GCM
ECHAM5 GCM MIROC3.2
Climate Change in India• India spans many different ecological, geographic, and climatic zones• Climate change is expected to:
• Increase average temperatures• Change precipitation patterns• Increase weather volatility and frequency of extreme weather events
• Local climate change effects may vary greatly due to• Geography• Available water resources
• These change will have varying effects on food grain producing regions
Climate Change Effects on Food Grains ‐Wheat
Crops Baseline area lost
Yield lost > 25 %
Yield lost 5‐25 %
Yield gain 5‐25 %
Yield gain > 25%
New area gained
Irrigated Wheat
Parts of Karnataka and AP
Parts of Karnataka and AP
In parts of 10 States
Parts of Bihar, Orissa and West Bengal (WB)
Parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka
Some area of J&K
Rainfed Wheat
Parts of Karnataka
Parts of Uttarakhand
In parts of 8 States
Parts of MP, Maharashtra, Haryana, Punjab, HP
‐ ‐
State‐wise Yield Change in 2050 (Based on CSIRO GCM and MIROC GCM)
IMPACT Results for Wheat
Production
Yield
Area
Climate Change Effects on Food Grains ‐ Rice
Crops Baseline area lost
Yield lost > 25 %
Yield lost 5‐25 %
Yield gain 5‐25 %
Yield gain > 25%
New area gained
Irrigated Rice ‐ WB, parts of Haryana
In parts of 14 States
Parts of UP and Haryana ‐ ‐
Rainfed Rice Some parts of MP ‐ In parts of 8
States
Most parts of Maharashtra, Parts of Karnataka, Orissa, Bihar
Parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka
Uttarakhand, HP, Punjab, some border areas of UP, MP and Karnataka
State‐wise Yield Change in 2050 (Based on CSIRO GCM and MIROC GCM)
IMPACT Results for Rice
Production
Yield
Area
Climate Change Effects on Food Grains ‐Maize
Crops Baseline area lost
Yield lost > 25 %
Yield lost 5‐25 %
Yield gain 5‐25 %
Yield gain > 25%
New area gained
Irrigated Maize ‐ Some area of Chhattisgarh
In parts of 10 States
Parts of UP, and Haryana, and Karnataka
‐ ‐
Rainfed Maize
Parts of Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Karnataka
‐ In parts of 8 States
Parts of Maharashtra, UP
Parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka, AP, and TN
Parts of Rajasthan, MP and Punjab
State‐wise Yield Change in 2050 (Based on CSIRO GCM and MIROC GCM)
IMPACT Results for Maize
Production
Yield
Area
Pulse Production in India
• Pulses are an important source of protein and nutrition• India is the largest producer and consumer of pulses
• 25 percent of global production• 27 percent of consumption• 34 percent of food use
• India is also the world’s top importer of pulses• 11 percent of world imports (1995‐2001)• Imports account for only 6 percent of domestic consumption
• Indian Government has focused attention on increasing pulse production
IMPACT Results for Chickpeas
Production
Yield
Area
IMPACT Commodity Price Summary
Wheat
Rice
Maize
Chickpeas
IMPACT Net Trade Summary
ChickpeasRice
MaizeWheat
IMPACT Food Security Scenario Outcomes
Per capita food availability (kcal/person)
Malnourished Children (thousands)
Strategies to reduce GHG emissions
• Improved land management • Conservation agriculture, etc
• Agro‐forestry• Degraded crop and pasture area rehabilitation• Improvement to nutrition and genetics of ruminant livestock• Improved storage and capture technologies for manure conversion into biogas
GHG emissions by sector
Adaptation strategies
• Change varieties or crop species and planting dates, and promote crop diversification
• Reduce water‐use inefficiency• Preserve and enhance plant & animal genetic resources• Improve crop & residue management• Develop watersheds in rainfed areas• Promote agri‐insurance to mitigate income risks
Conclusions
• Climate change will make attaining food security through 2050 a challenge
• Agriculture production is likely to increase under demographic and socioeconomic pressure
• Climate change will reduce yields in many regions by 5‐25%• Climate change would have little impact on number of malnourished children
• Technological options are available for climate change mitigation and adaptation; need is to promote their adoption