Decision-support Research for Environmental Applications and Models: « Toward practical monitoring of climate change impacts in the Mekong region »

A/Prof. Hiep Xuan Huynh, Ph.D.

LabSTICC University of Occidental Brest

June 03, 2013

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Content

Problem of climate change in the Mekong Delta

region

Problem of sea level rise

Problem of social eonomic indices

Problem of BPH (Brown Plant Hopper) propagation

Research participation

Current and prepared research projects

Support of mathematics and computer science?

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Climate change in the Mekong Delta region - Vietnam

[http://www.agroviet.gov.vn/Pages/news_detail.aspx?NewsId=987

8#]

Mekong Delta region is the coastal lowlands of Vietnam will be the

region most severely affected by climate change (CC) cause.

In the dry season, many provinces in the Mekong Delta are

affected by salinity intrusion, agricultural production is damaged,

many areas have a lack of fresh water for household ...

Before this situation, many localities in the Mekong Delta region

has been proposed many solutions to cope and adapt to climate

change impacts due

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Biến đổi khí hậu tại vùng ĐBSCL

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Climate change on the Mekong delta region - Vietnam

Rapidly increasing impact

[Report of the World Bank (WB)] Vietnam is one of the countries

most affected when global sea level rise due to climate change

impacts. Over 12% of Vietnam's coast will be submerged under 1

meter sea level. Mekong Delta and Red River Delta are the regions

lying to the most affected when flooding occurs, salinization and

severe weather phenomena. As the prediction of the United

Nations Development Program (UNDP), the impact will cause

damage of about 17 billion each year and that about 17 million

people homeless. But the Office of Management survey of marine

resources and the environment (Ministry of Natural Resources and

Environment) forecasts that sea levels will rise in Vietnam from 3-

15 cm in 2010, coming from 15-90 cm in in 2070. The affected

area is Ca Mau, Kien Giang, Ba Ria-Vung Tau, Thanh Hoa, Nam

Dinh, Thai Binh.

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Climate change on the Mekong Delta region - Vietnam

[Not many storms at the Mekong Delta region before] But with

the Linda 1997 storm went through the area and in 2006, tailed

Durion storm swept through, causing heavy losses of life and

property. Severity of storms such as hurricanes in the Delta Durion

will cause even greater and more intense if sea levels rise higher

than currently.

[A/Prof. Nguyen Huu Chiem (College of Environment and

Natural Resources-CTU)] “Mekong Delta region is influenced by

global climate change. Land discolored, biodiversity decline. The

area of land salinization, soil drought, increasing acidity. Currently,

there are about 2.1 million hectares and 1.6 million hectares of

saline soil acidity, drought. The air temperature increased and

abnormal drought, floods irregular, forming many new diseases ...

".

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Climate change in the Mekong Delta region - Vietnam

[According to the meteorological branch of the Mekong Delta

provinces] In the tidal wave from late 2008 to early 2009 has

made the area outside the dikes for 8 provinces floodplains

including: An Giang, Kien Giang, Hau Giang, Dong Thap , Long

An, Tien Giang, Vinh Long, Can Tho flooded. In addition, high tide

as the river rises to about 70,000 ha have orchards, hundreds of

kilometers of rural roads flooded depth of 10-30 cm. National road

53 is located in the town of Long Ho district was flooded on the 200

meters in length, 15 cm deep. Hundreds of people could not also

flooded embankment. Earlier, the combined effect of storm rainfall

time between 12/2008 to 100,000 ha located outside the dike in the

MDR flooded from 10-40 cm, mainly orchards. Inundation occurs

even in the dry season hinders the production and living of the

people living outside the dikes.

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Climate change in the Mekong Delta region - Vietnam

[Dry season] According to the Water Resources Research

Institute of the South said that from 6 saltwater estuaries of the

Mekong River system into the Mekong Delta 70 km inland. In Long

An, salty water from the river into the society of the state was West

Marine (Thanh Hoa district) in Ben Tre, salty water from the river to

Cua Dai Phu Tuc has (Chau Thanh district) in Tra Vinh, saltwater

Ham Luong river in the Long Thoi commune (district State needed)

in Hau Giang, salty water from the river has to Tran Huu Phu, Vinh

Long, An Dinh salt water from the river, had to come Cung Hau

commune An Quoi (Vung Liem district) and Tra district town. In Ca

Mau province, salty water from the river he had penetrated 65km

Doc. Cai Lon rivers from saltwater intrusion and 65 km to the town

of Vi Thanh (Hau Giang).

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Climate change in the Mekong Delta region - Vietnam

Salt water from the Mekong River and 6 doors Cổ Chiên (of the

Mekong River system), from the estuary Ông Đốc, Cái Lớn has

deep intrusion from 10-60 km to 53 local communes in the

provinces of Long An, Tien Giang , Ben Tre, Tra Vinh, Soc Trang,

Bac Lieu, Kien Giang, Ca Mau, Vinh Long, Hau Giang.

Currently a number of localities in the Mekong Delta has emerged

the severe water shortage.

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Climate change in the Mekong Delta region - Vietnam

[Pham Dinh Don, Director of the Environmental Protection

Department of the South West region] In the next few decades if

sea levels rise, Mekong Delta will have to face the situation salinity

and flooding conditions downstream Mekong Delta large scale.

Delta is the nation's largest rice bowl and the strength of the

aquaculture sector should 2 will be most affected when the salinity

change on soil and water resources. Mangrove ecosystem would

also adversely affected by the deep water regime altered by rising

sea levels. Salinization process at a high level can destroy

vegetation and biodiversity of mangrove forest ecosystems in Ca

Mau, Kien Giang ... ? Under such circumstances, if the sea level

rises, national food security will be threatened and the lives of poor

farmers in the region will be seriously affected.

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Administration of climate change in the Mekong Delta region

Climate change office of Can Tho city (Steering committee 158)

http://biendoikhihau.cantho.gov.vn/

Institute for Climate Change, Cantho University

http://www.ctu.edu.vn/institutes/dragon/

Multidisciplinary research team DREAM (Decision-support

Research for Environmental Applications and Models)

http://www.ctu.edu.vn/dream/

College of Information and Communication Technology, College of Natural

Sciences (Mathematics Department), College of Environment and Natural

Resources

http://biendoikhihau.cantho.gov.vn/http://www.ctu.edu.vn/institutes/dragon/http://www.ctu.edu.vn/dream/

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Sea level rise

Flooding by tide (in Can Tho city)

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Peace Avenue Road (Can Tho city) inundated by rising

tides pm 15-10 - Photo: Thanh Xuan.

Flooding by tide (in Ho Chi Minh city)

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Land-used planning

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BPH on rice plant

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BPH’s fired

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Affected of salinity intrusion in rice plant in the Soc Trang province (spring-summer)

http://www.sggp.org.vn/moitruongdothi/2013/4/315673/

http://www.sggp.org.vn/moitruongdothi/2013/4/315673/

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Haì TiãnHaì Tiãn

Kiãn LæångKiãn Læång

Hoìn ÂáútHoìn Âáút

ÂAÍO PHUÏ Q UÄ ÚCÂAÍO PHUÏ Q UÄ ÚC

Tri ToânTri Toân

G oì Q uaoG oì Q uao

Tán HiãûpTán Hiãûp

Minh LæångMinh Læång

Thæï BaThæï Ba

KIEÂNG GIANG

Nhaì BaìngNhaì Baìng

AN GIANG

Tr áön Vàn ThåìiTr áön Vàn Thåìi

Âáöm DåiÂáöm Dåi

C aïi næåïcC aïi næåïc

Nàm C ànNàm C àn

U MinhU Minh

Thåïi BçnhThåïi Bçnh

Thæï Mæåìi MäütThæï Mæåìi Mäüt

Vénh ThuáûnVénh Thuáûn

CAØ MAU

H oàng NgöïH oàng Ngöï

An PhuïAn Phuï

Tán C háuTán C háu

C håü VaìmC håü Vaìm

C aïi DáöuC aïi Dáöu

An C háuAn C háu

Nuïi SáûpNuïi Sáûp

C háu ÂäúcC háu Âäúc

Q . B çn h T h u y íQ . B çn h T h u y í

C aïi VäönC aïi Väön

Thäút NäútThäút Näút

Q . Ä MänQ . Ä Män

C åì ÂoíC åì ÂoíQ . N in h K iã öu

Q . N in h K iã öu

CAÀN THÔ

Vó nh ThaïnhVó nh Thaïnh

Thaïnh TròThaïnh TròPhæåïc LongPhæåïc Long

G iaï RaiG iaï Rai

Hoìa BçnhHoìa Bçnh

Long MyîLong Myî

BAÏC LIEÂU

Ngaõ NaêmNgaõ Naêm

Q . C a ïi R à n gQ . C a ïi R à n g

Phuûng HiãûpPhuûng HiãûpVë ThanhVë Thanh

P h o n g  iã önP h o n g  iã ön

C háu Thaình AC háu Thaình A

HAÄU

GIANG

G i oàng Ri eàngG i oàng Ri eàng

Tr aìm C himTr aìm C him

Thanh BçnhThanh Bçnh

Taân H oàngTaân H oàng

Taân H öngTaân H öng

Cao LaûnhCao Laûnh

C håü MåïiC håü Måïi

Lai VungLai Vung

Láúp VoìLáúp Voì

Thaùp MöôøiThaùp Möôøi

Traø OÂnTraø OÂn

Kãú SaïchKãú Saïch

C aïi Taìu HaûC aïi Taìu Haû

Long HäöLong Häö

C háu ThaìnhC háu Thaình

Tam Bì nhTam Bì nh

Vénh HængVénh Hæng

C háu ThaìnhC háu Thaình

Huyình Hæîu NghéaHuyình Hæîu Nghéa

Myî XuyãnMyî Xuyãn

Vénh C háuVénh C háu

SOÙC TRAÊNG

Long PhuùLong Phuù

C aïi NhumC aïi Nhum

C áöu keìC áöu keì

VÓNH LONG

Vuõng Li eâmVuõng Li eâm

Tán ThaûnhTán Thaûnh

C ai LáûyC ai Láûy

C aïi BeìC aïi Beì

Mäüc HoaïMäüc Hoaï

LONG ANThaïnh H oùa

Thaïnh H oùaThuû Thöøa

Thuû Thöøa

Ñ öùc H oøaÑ öùc H oøa

Tr aíng BaìngTr aíng Baìng

Dæång Minh C háuDæång Minh C háu

Hoaì ThaìnhHoaì Thaình

G oì DáöuG oì Dáöu

häö Dáöu Tiãúnghäö Dáöu Tiãúng

Taây Ninh

Beán CaàuBeán Caàu

Myî PhæåïcMyî Phæåïc

Tán HiãûpTán Hiãûp

C håü G aûoC håü G aûo

C háu ThaìnhC háu Thaình

C håü LaïchC håü Laïch

TIEÀN GIANGChaâu Thaønh

Chaâu Thaønh

C áöu NgangC áöu Ngang

Moí C aìyMoí C aìy

C aìng LongC aìng Long

C háu ThaìnhC háu Thaình

Tiãøu C áönTiãøu C áön

Tr aì C uïTr aì C uï

Duyãn HaíiDuyãn Haíi

TRAØ VINH

G iäöng Tr ämG iäöng Tr äm

Bçnh ÂaûiBçnh Âaûi

Ba Tr iBa Tr i

Thaûnh PhuïThaûnh Phuï

BEÁN TRE

Myî Phæåïc Myî Phæåïc

Bãún læïcBãún læïc

Âæïc HoìaÂæïc Hoìa

C uí C hiC uí C hi

Hoïc MänHoïc Män

An LaûcAn Laûc

C áön G iåìC áön G iåì

Vénh BçnhVénh Bçnh

Tán HoaìTán Hoaì

G oì C ängG oì C äng

C áön G iuäücC áön G iuäüc

C áön ÂæåïcC áön ÂæåïcTraân Truï

Traân Truï

Läüc NinhLäüc Ninh

Âaû TeíhÂaû Teíh

Âäöng NaiÂäöng Nai

Thaïc MåThaïc MåÂæïc PhongÂæïc Phong

An LäücAn Läüc

Tán BiãnTán BiãnTán C háuTán C háu

Bình Phöôùc

laïi Thiãulaïi Thiãu

Nhaì BeìNhaì Beì

Thuí ÂæïcThuí Âæïc

Nhån Tr aûchNhån Tr aûch

Uyãn HængUyãn Hæng

Tp. HCM

Bình Döông

Vó nh CöûuVó nh Cöûu

Âënh Q uaïnÂënh Q uaïn

Tr aíng BomTr aíng Bom

Xuán LäücXuán Läüc

H ä ö H ä ö

T r ë A nT r ë A n

Ñoàng Nai

Long ThaìnhLong Thaình

Long ÂiãönLong Âiãön

NG aîi G iaoNG aîi G iao

Phuï MyîPhuï Myî

Baì RëaBaì Rëa

Phæåïc BæíuPhæåïc Bæíu

Haìm TánHaìm Tán

Baø Ròa-Vuõng Taøu

Taân PhuùTaân Phuù

G ia RayG ia Ray

Âæïc LinhÂæïc Linh

Taïnh LinhTaïnh Linh

Ma Âa G uiMa Âa G ui

Läüc ThàõngLäüc Thàõng

Laûc DæångLaûc Dæång

Nam BanNam Ban

Liãn NghéaLiãn Nghéa

Di linhDi linhBaío LäücBaío Läüc

Laâm Ñoàng

C håü LáöuC håü Láöu

H aøm Thuaän BaécH aøm Thuaän Baéc

Haìm Thuáûn namHaìm Thuáûn nam

Liãn HæångLiãn Hæång

Bình Thuaän

khaïnh Haíikhaïnh Haíi

Thaûnh MyîThaûnh Myî

Ninh SånNinh Sån

Phæåïc DánPhæåïc Dán

Ninh Thuaän

ÑOÀNG THAÙP

Predicting PBH’s infected

Không nhiễm Dt nhiễm ít

Dt nhiễm TB DT nhiễm nhiều

Predicting model for all of 22 provinces/cities in the South

of Vietnam

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Predicting model for PBH’s infected on rice

Mật số rầy biến động

Xịt

thuốc

sâu

Bón

phân Thiên

địch

Gieo

sạ

giống

Mức gây hại và Di trú của rầy

GĐST

lúa

Độ

tuổi

rầy

MỨC ĐỘ NHIỄM RẦY Mật số rầy

ngoài đồng

Hướn

g gió

Nhiễm vùng lân cận

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Predicting model for PBH’s infected on rice (in detail)

Simulating of BPH’s propagation

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Simulating of salinity intrsion (Bac Lieu province)

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Models for the problem of sea level rise

The sub problems are studied:

Simulating the affect of salinization in a province of Mekong Delta

region (Hoang Ngoc Hien)

Simulating the affect of water levels by tides in Cantho City,

Vietnam (Nguyen Van Trong)

Simulating the flooding progression by the influence of rainfall in

Can Tho city (Ngo Tuong Dan)

Simulating the affect of water levels by the influence of flooding?

Simulating the affect of water levels by the influence of

temperature?

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Sea level rise (in Can Tho city)

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Problem of social-economics indices

Establishing an administrative information system for leaderships

of province and district in a province of Vietnam (Huynh Xuan

Hiep)

Establishing an information technology model for industrial and

agriculture development in rural areas (Huynh Xuan Hiep)

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Problem of PBH propagation

Modeling and simulating based on multiagents apparoach to study

the propagation of BPH on rice (Vo Tran Son Trang)

Simulating the invasion of BPH on rice (Phan Huy Cuong)

Predicting the infected and fired of Brown Plant Hopper (Vu Duy

Linh)

Establishing a model to simulating the BPH’s distribution on rice

field (Vo Thanh Tung)

Identifying the affects of BPH on rice field (Nguyen Trong Thuan)

Estimating the BPH’s density in light traps with spatial approach

(Huynh Khai Vinh)

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BPH propagation and models (Ph.D. students)

A dynamically multiscale approach to modeling of environmental

issues (Vinh Gia Nhi Nguyen)

Optimization by simulation of environmental surveillance network –

Application to the monitoring of Brown Plant Hopper invasion in

Mekong Delta, Vietnam (Viet Xuan Truong)

CO-MODELS, engineering dynamic compositions of coupled

models to support the simulation of complex systems (Nghi Quang

Huynh)

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Student participating?

Engineer and bachelor level

Some concrete problems?

Master level

Some concrete problems?

Overview knowledge about the research problems?

Ph.D. level

Some concrete problems?

Overview knowledge about the research problems?

Research results are new and applicable?

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Current research projects

JEAI-DREAM (Decision-support Research for Environmental

Applications and Models)

PEERS-ACCCLIMATE (Adaptation to Climate Change : Land-use

Innovative Models Applied To Environmental management –

ACCLIMATE)

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Prepared research projects

DREAMS (Designing Resilient urban Environments through

Advanced Modeling and Simulation)

SAUTEREL (Surveillance par cApteUrs auTonomes des insEctes

Ravageurs et nuisibLes)

USTH (Crowd-Based Monitoring: Using Images and Voice

Recognition to Build Flexible and Dynamic Surveillance Networks

of Insects Invasions)

MOET (Optimizing the Brown Plant Hopper surveillance network

using automatic light traps in the Mekong Delta region)

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Informatics and mathematics

Multi agents modeling and simulation

Data mining

Machine learning, SVM - support vector machine

Image, video and voice processing

Geographic information systems

Global optimization

Aggregation operators

Sensor networks?

…

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Light trap

http://www.bvtvhcm.gov.vn/technology.php?id=66

http://www.bvtvhcm.gov.vn/technology.php?id=66http://www.bvtvhcm.gov.vn/technology.php?id=66http://www.bvtvhcm.gov.vn/technology.php?id=66

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Mekong Delta map

http://websrv.ctu.edu.vn/guide_det.php?id=14

http://websrv.ctu.edu.vn/guide_det.php?id=14

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Thank you for your attention!