Decision Support for Biosecurity:

Valuation of Biodiversity

Brian Bell

The Problem

• How to integrate theory into practice?• How to support decision making where

there are no market prices to estimate value?

• Why value? – because if you don’t know the value how do you know how much to spend protecting it

• At some point the cost of protection will exceed the value

Where market prices exist

• Well established theory and practice– Risk analysis– Economic impact assessment– Cost Benefit Analysis

• Discounted cashflows: NPV +ve, NB/C>0• Risk simulation: risk aversion - QuRATM

• By the way -– Qualitative costs and benefits described!

Non-market values – Indigenous Biodiversity

• What are we talking about?

• As incomes rise material needs are met

• The value of being a New Zealander

• Unique landscapes, fauna and flora

Non-market values – Indigenous Biodiversity

• Environmental concerns about diminishing biodiversity

• But how much to spend on it?

• Not unlimited! A trade-off eg health & education

Tools for non-market valuation

• Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA)– A decision making framework incorporating monetary

and non-monetary information to evaluate options– Experts score components of value– Economic, Environmental, Social, Cultural– Scores are added

Tools for non-market valuation

• Choice Modelling– Experts provide information– Cross section of population surveyed– Choose between alternatives

• Impact and control scenarios

– Statistical methods to estimate value

Issues

1. Whose value?2. The need for quick decisions3. Good analysis takes time and money4. How to make use of previous analysis?5. How to involve experts/ordinary people?6. The need to inform, but not bias7. Realistic scenarios, but simple enough8. The impact on value of distance/proximity9. The impact of scope: local, regional, national10.Estimating value is too hard! Alternatives?