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Deaths from smoking
in all developed countries
Deaths from smokingin all developed countries
• Particular emphasis is given to the number of deathsin middle age (defined as ages 35 to 69)
• Available on www.deathsfromsmoking.net
• This presentation provides estimates of the numberof deaths caused by smoking in all developed countries
Source of data: “Mortality from Smoking in Developed Countries, 1950–2000”
• Uses WHO mortality data for lung cancer and for other diseases, and UN population data
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
• Updated edition of a 1994 book, authored by aninternational team of scientists:
– Richard Peto, Professor of Medical Statistics, University of Oxford
– Alan Lopez, Professor of Medical Statistics, University of Queensland
– Jillian Boreham, Senior Research Fellow, University of Oxford
– Michael Thun, Chief of Epidemiology, American Cancer Society
Deaths from smoking, 1950 to 2000
• About 62% (39 million) of them were still in middle agewhen they died
• This was about one in five of all the deaths in middle age during this period (39 million out of the 184 million deaths at ages 35-69)
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
All developed countries
• About 63 million people died from smoking during this50-year period in all developed countries
Annual deaths from smoking
• About 1 million die in middle age from smoking
• Many of those killed in middle age would have lived on for 10, 20, 30 or more good years
• About 22 years of life are lost, on average, by those killed in middle age by smoking
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
All developed countries, year 2000
• Smoking kills about 1.9 million people a year in all developed countries
Smoking causes about twice as many deaths as all non-medical causes put together
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
All developed countries, year 2000
983,076*non-medical
Murder / assault FallsSuicide DrowningRoad accidents PoisoningPlane crashes FiresTrain crashes Floods / stormsAccidents at work Other natural disastersAccidents at home Other accidents
*in year 2000
1.9 millionsmoking
Smoking kills 1.9 million people a year,from many different diseases
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
All developed countries, year 2000
*includes 490,000 (85%) ofthe 575,441 lung cancer deaths
700,000cancer*
650,000 vascular(heart disease,stroke and other diseases of the arteries and veins)
350,000respiratory
200,000 other
2,700,000total cancer deaths
About one in four of all cancer deaths is due to smoking
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
All developed countries, year 2000
700,000 (26%)from smoking
1,500,000male
550,000 (37%)from smoking
1,200,000female
150,000 (12%)from smoking
Male deaths in middle age from smoking
• This pattern is seen first in middle age, then in old age
• The next three slides concentrate on male deathsin middle age
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
• The main pattern of increase and, eventually,decrease in premature deaths from smoking is at a more advanced stage among men than among women
About one in three of all deaths inmiddle-aged men is due to smoking*
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
All developed countries, year 2000
*800,000 (30%) of the2.7 million deaths at ages 35-69
Of 100 men aged 35 years …
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
All developed countries, year 2000
*risks at year 2000death rates for ages 35-69
• 35 die in middle age*
35%
• 11 of these 35 deaths are from smoking
11
Male death in middle age: changing hazards*
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
All developed countries, 1955-2000
*risks at period-specificdeath rates for ages 35-69
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
42%
All causes
40%
41%
41%
40%
39%
37%
36%
38%
35%
8
Smoking
10
11
12
12
13
13
12
13
11
Summary for the whole population
• Smoking kills about 1.9 million men and women every year
• About 1 million die in middle age from smoking
• Smoking causes about twice as many deaths as all non-medical causes put together
• About one in four of all cancer deaths is due to smoking
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
All developed countries, year 2000
In all developed countries:
Messages for the individual smoker
• Those killed in middle age lose many years
• Stopping smoking works– Even in early middle age, those who stop (before they have
lung cancer or some other fatal disease) avoid most of their risk of being killed by tobacco
– Stopping before middle age works even better
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
• The risk is big: about half are killed
Deaths from smoking: an electronic resourcewww.deathsfromsmoking.netPublished by International Union Against Cancer (UICC), Geneva: Switzerland, 2006
Funded byClinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit (CTSU), University of OxfordInternational Union Against Cancer (UICC)Fogarty International Center, US NIHUK Medical Research CouncilCancer Research UK
Project team Richard Peto, Judith Watt, Jillian BorehamProject management Sinéad JonesAdvice and support Steve Woodward, Konrad Jamrozik, Lesley Walker, Trish CotterDesign bwa-design.co.uk
