DEAR CLIENT, INVITATION · Astaldi (Reduce) Sale of stake in Metro 5 by year end Obrascon Huarte Lain (Neutral) Marmaray contract MEDIA Sector News SPAIN: Who will pay the Second

ESN Analyser

Investment Research

Page 1 of 37

Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)

ESN Analyser

Investment Research

22 November 2016

DEAR CLIENT,

INVITATION

“31st ESN EUROPEAN CONFERENCE”

London, 13 December 2016

Merchant Taylors’ Hall (30 Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8JB)

Companies available for one-to-one meetings Please consult the ESN website conference dedicated page

http://www.esnpartnership.eu/conferences/actual

DAILY OPEN SLOT

Tomorrow Wednesday 23 November at 11.00 am CET

Christian Bruns (equinet Bank) will present his initiation of coverage on Suedzucker through the ESN Daily

Open Slot.

All interested people have to contact their reference sales person for the phone number and details for the call.

ESN Top Picks

Roadshows

Corporate Events

Tactical Sector Views

ESN European Top Picks

NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE (IN)- SMALL & MID CAPS

OPAP (IN)- SMALL & MID CAPS

RECOMMENDATION CHANGES

Acomo downgraded to Neutral from Accumulate Weak pepper prices and CEO change: too spicy?

Aktia upgraded to Accumulate from Neutral Earnings growth lacking but the highest dividend in the sector attracts

STRATEGY NEWS

European Strategy News: The Outlook for Equity Markets

http://www.esnpartnership.eu/conferences/actual

ESN Analyser

Investment Research

Page 2 of 37


NEWS BY SECTOR

AEROSPACE & DEFENSE

Leonardo (Buy) LDO reaches an important milestone on the AW101

BANKS

Aktia (Accumulate) Earnings growth lacking but the highest dividend in the sector attracts

Banca MPS (Rating Suspended) EGM quorum almost reached

BASIC RESOURCES

Stora Enso (Accumulate) Suzano to raise BEK pulp price in China

CHEMICALS

KWS Saat (Buy) Q1 preview

FOOD & BEVERAGE

Acomo (Neutral) Weak pepper prices and CEO change: too spicy?

FOOD & DRUG RETAILERS

Jeronimo Martins (Accumulate) Poland - Food Retail Sales in October 2016 (+4.2% YoY)

Jeronimo Martins (Accumulate) Fair value revision to EUR 16.30 and rollover for YE17

GENERAL INDUSTRIALS

Huhtamäki (Buy) New financial targets announced

GENERAL RETAILERS

Fourlis Holdings (Buy) Release of 3Q16 results today post market close

INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING

Accsys Technologies (Buy) Slowdown in revenue growth due to capacity limitations

Cargotec Corp (Accumulate) Cargotec – Kalmar invests in services, automation and software

MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE

Astaldi (Reduce) Sale of stake in Metro 5 by year end

Obrascon Huarte Lain (Neutral) Marmaray contract

MEDIA

Sector News SPAIN: Who will pay the Second Digital Dividend?

Alma Media (Accumulate) Soft October for Finnish media advertising

TRAVEL & LEISURE

Ibersol (Buy) 9M16 results comment – strong figures

OPAP (Buy) Release of 3Q16 results today post market close

Trigano (Buy) Excellent 2016 results; very promising prospects

UTILITIES

Enagàs (Buy) Dividend Announcement

Enel (Accumulate) Creating re-leverage options

Enel (Accumulate) 2017-2019 business plan

ESN Top Picks

Page 3 of 37


Blue Chips Top Picks

Compa ny Count r y S e c t or I de a Ra t i ngP r i c e a s of

2 1/ 11/ 2 0 16

Ta r ge t

P r i c e

Upsi de /

Downsi deEnt r y da t e

Ent r y

pr i c e

Ent r y

pr i c e

( D i v .

Adj )

Tot a l

Re t ur n

Ent r y To

Da t e

Re l . Cml . d

pe r f . v s Eur o

S t ox x

AM ADEUS Spain Support Services Long Buy 42.13 50.70 20% 18/ 08/ 2016 41.96 41.96 0 . 4 % -0.4%

CI E FI N . R I CHEM ONT Swit zerland Personal Goods Long Buy 65.85 76.00 15% 17/ 10/ 2016 66.30 66.30 - 0 . 7 % -0.3%

EDP RENOVÁVEI S Port ugal Ut ilit ies Long Buy 6.00 7.70 28% 14/ 11/ 2016 5.82 5.82 3 . 1% 2.9%

I NDI TEX Spain General Ret ailers Long Accumulat e 31.44 36.10 15% 18/ 08/ 2016 30.93 30.33 3 . 7 % 2.8%

KP N TELECOM Net herlands Telecommunicat ions Long Buy 2.60 3.55 36% 20/ 09/ 2016 2.82 2.82 - 7 . 9 % -8.8%

P OS TE I TALI ANE It aly Banks Long Accumulat e 5.65 7.90 40% 03/ 11/ 2016 5.96 5.96 - 5 . 1% -6.3%

RELX Net herlands Media Long Accumulat e 15.01 16.75 12% 27/ 10/ 2016 15.14 15.14 - 0 . 9 % 1.0%

TECHNI P France Oil Services Long Buy 66.01 67.00 1% 18/ 102016 58.60 58.60 12 . 6 % 12.5%

source: ESN Members’ estimates

M/S Caps Top Picks

Compa ny Count r y S e c t or I de a Ra t i ngP r i c e a s of

2 1/ 11/ 2 0 16

Ta r ge t

P r i c e

Upsi de /

Downsi deEnt r y da t e

Ent r y

pr i c e

Ent r y pr i c e

( D i v . Adj )

Tot a l

Re t ur n

Ent r y To

Da t e

Re l . Cml . d

pe r f . v s

Eur o

S t ox x

ACERI NOX Spain Basic Resources Long Buy 11.92 14.00 17% 18/ 08/ 2016 11.71 11.71 1. 8 % 1.0%

ALTRAN France Sof t ware & Comput er Services Long Buy 12.11 15.00 24% 17/ 10/ 2016 13.20 13.20 - 8 . 3 % -7.9%

ANI M A It aly Financial Services Long Buy 4.51 5.80 29% 11/ 11/ 2016 4.55 4.55 - 0 . 9 % -0.6%

CAF Spain Indust r ial Transport at ion Long Accumulat e 359.40 390.00 9% 18/ 08/ 2016 342.80 342.80 4 . 8 % 4.0%

CELLNEX TELECOM Spain Support Services Long Buy 13.24 19.60 48% 11/ 11/ 2016 13.03 13.03 1. 6 % 1.8%

DEUTS CHE P FANDBRI EFBANK Germany Banks Long Accumulat e 9.91 11.30 14% 22/ 08/ 2016 8.10 8.10 2 2 . 3 % 21.3%

EUS KALTEL Spain Telecommunicat ions Long Buy 8.12 12.00 48% 11/ 11/ 2016 8.62 8.62 - 5 . 8 % -5.5%

FOLLI FOLLI E GROUP Greece General Ret ailers Long Buy 19.80 27.70 40% 07/ 11/ 2016 20.91 20.91 - 5 . 3 % -7.5%

FORFARM ERS Net herlands Food & Beverage Long Buy 6.85 8.30 21% 28/ 09/ 2016 6.48 6.48 5 . 7 % 4.8%

FUGRO Net herlands Oil Services Long Buy 16.19 19.00 17% 20/ 10/ 2016 15.56 15.56 4 . 1% 5.6%

HUHTAM ÄKI Finland General Indust r ials Long Buy 34.60 41.00 18% 17/ 11/ 2016 33.86 33.86 2 . 2 % 1.9%

NATI ONAL BANK OF GREECE Greece Banks Long Buy 0.21 0.41 96% 21/ 11/ 2016 0.21 0.21 - 0 . 5 % -0.8%

NH HOTEL GROUP Spain Travel & Leisure Long Buy 3.69 6.80 84% 18/ 08/ 2016 4.00 4.00 - 7 . 8 % -8.6%

NOS Port ugal Telecommunicat ions Long Buy 5.52 7.00 27% 17/ 10/ 2016 5.89 5.89 - 6 . 2 % -5.9%

OP AP Greece Travel & Leisure Long Buy 8.78 12.50 42% 21/ 11/ 2016 8.68 8.68 1. 2 % 0.9%

RI B S OFTWARE Germany Sof t ware & Comput er Services Long Buy 14.34 14.00 -2% 20/ 06/ 2016 8.29 8.29 7 3 . 0 % 66.7%

TECHNOGYM It aly Personal Goods Long Buy 3.78 4.95 31% 15/ 06/ 2016 3.78 3.78 0 . 0 % -7.9%

source: ESN Members’ estimates

This selection of stocks is not intended to provide a recommended portfolio; therefore there is no point in comparing its performance with any benchmark. The performance of each stock has to be considered independently. Risk factors are taken into account when selecting individual stocks but the risk profile of the selection as a whole is not considered. The approach used to select each investment idea is opportunistic with an absolute return target.

ESN Top Picks

Page 4 of 37


SMALL & MID CAPS (IN)

NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE

National Bank of Greece is the 2nd biggest bank group in Greece in terms of assets. Following the recent sector consolidation, NBG ranks 2nd in terms of deposits (c.24% market share) and 3rd in terms of loans (c. 21% market share) in Greece. NBG has a strong presence in SE Europe controlling 9 banks. As a result of its restructuring plan, NBG is obliged to dispose its non-Greek banking assets and has already sold its Turkish subsidiary Finansbank this summer. As a result of the 2015 recap and due to the numerous asset sales, NBG secures the highest coverage and capital ratios among peers. NBG is among our preferred picks in the sector, due to its superior capital (CET1 of 16.8% or 22.3% including CoCos), highest coverage of NPLs/ NPEs (75% and 52% respectively), with the lowest leverage and highest liquidity (net Loans to deposit ratio at 91%). Coverage is the highest in the sector at 74.7%. Also, given the relatively lower efficiency of Greek operations vs. peers, more could be done on cost containment. In terms of valuation, NBG is trading at a large discount vs. both EM and European peers, just 0.3xTBV16e.

ESN Top Picks

Page 5 of 37


SMALL & MID CAPS (IN)

OPAP

We have recently raised our target price to EUR 12.50/share (vs. EUR 9.60/share previously) reflecting the restart of the VLTs project (operation of 35k VLTs for 10 years) after the amendment of the relevant regulation in accordance with best international practices. Needless to say that we remain positive on the stock (‘Buy’ rating is re- affirmed) on the back of: a) a fat upside potential (i.e. 48%) from current level, b) OPAP’s strong earnings potential (8% EPS CAGR over 2016-2020) and c) its unparalleled dividend policy (>10% estimated dividend yield when VLTs when reach full operation). The expected conclusion of the second review of the bailout program before the next Eurogroup meeting is seen as the next catalyst for the stock in the short-term.

OPAP is attractively valued against industry peers. In particular, the stock trades 14x its 2018e net profits or at a 16% discount to peers, while in terms of EV/EBITDA 18e the pricing gap is even larger (i.e. 45% on 2018e multiple) standing at 6.2x. In our view, the current valuation discount against industry peers mainly reflects country-related risks, which have affected investor appetite for a 'macro play' such as OPAP with a healthy balance sheet and a quite generous dividend policy. However, the concrete evidence that the second review of the bailout program will be concluded on time (as reflected on the reduction of GGB yields) is expected to lead to a narrower pricing gap in the short-term.

.

Roadshows

Page 6 of 37


SUBJECT LOCATION EVENT DATE

Repsol Frankfurt Cross-country Company Roadshow 22/11/2016

AKKA TECHNOLOGIES Geneva Cross-country Company Roadshow 24/11/2016

Corporate Events

Page 7 of 37


Corporate Events today

Source: Precise

CompanyBloomberg

codeDate Event Type Description

ENEL ENEL IM 22/11/16 Trading Update Analyst meeting Strategic Plan

FOURLIS HOLDINGS FOYRK GA 22/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

GFT TECHNOLOGIES GFT GY 22/11/16 Analyst Meeting Analyst meeting {German Equity Forum}

HUHTAMÄKI HUH1V FH 22/11/16 Capital Markets Day Capital Markets Day {invitation only}

MOTA ENGIL EGL PL 22/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

NEMETSCHEK SE NEM GR 22/11/16 Analyst Meeting Analyst meeting {German Equity Forum}

OPAP OPAP GA 22/11/16 Trading Update Q3 2016 Interim Management Statement

PFEIFFER VACUUM PFV GR 22/11/16 Analyst Meeting Analyst meeting {German Equity Forum}

QGEP QGEP3 BZ 22/11/16 Analyst Meeting Analyst meeting APIMEC

SLM SOLUTIONS AM3D GY 22/11/16 Analyst Meeting Analyst meeting {German Equity Forum}

SURTECO SUR GR 22/11/16 Analyst Meeting Analyst meeting {German Equity Forum}

TENARIS TEN IM 22/11/16 Dividend Payment Interim 2016 Dividend payment date USD 0.13

WINCOR NIXDORF WIN GY 22/11/16 Analyst Meeting Analyst meeting {German Equity Forum}

ZODIAC AEROSPACE ZC FP 22/11/16 Analyst Meeting Full year 2016 Results presentation / Webcast {invitation only}

ZC FP 22/11/16 Results Full year 2016 Results

ESN Tactical Sector Views

Page 8 of 37


Tactical Sector Allocation Matrix Nov 2016

SectorCurrent Tactical

ViewAction

Previous

Tactical View

Stoxx 600

Weighting

LATEST REVIEW

DATE

Automobiles & Parts = dow ngrade + 3.16806 Nov-16

Banks + upgrade - 12.667983 Nov-16

Basic Resources = = 2.940479 Nov-16

Chemicals = = 5.046571 Nov-16

Construction & Materials + + 3.037018 Nov-16

Financial Services = upgrade - 1.882982 Nov-16

Food & Beverage = dow ngrade + 5.865947 Nov-16

Healthcare = dow ngrade + 12.683377 Nov-16

Industrial Good & Services + + 11.80049 Nov-16

Insurance + upgrade - 6.424129 Nov-16

Media = upgrade - 2.640882 Nov-16

Oil & Gas = = 4.567868 Nov-16

Personal & Household Goods = dow ngrade + 8.67648 Nov-16

Real Estate - dow ngrade + 1.873345 Nov-16

Retail - - 3.16758 Nov-16

Technology + + 3.70773 Nov-16

Telecommunications - dow ngrade = 4.203392 Nov-16

Travel & Leisure - dow ngrade + 1.754437 Nov-16

Utilities - dow ngrade + 3.89125 Nov-16

Legend: + (Overw eight); =/+ (Slightly Overw eight); = (Market Weight); =/- (Slightly Underw eight); - (Underw eight);

Note: The tactical sector view is the shorter term trading view of the ESN strategy team and it can vary from the longer term

fundamental view of the relevant ESN sector analyst team

Page 9 of 37


Strategy Update Summary

Analyser

$SECTOR$

European Strategy News: The Outlook for Equity Markets

The Outlook for Equity Markets

This US economic expansion is now among the longest on record and the output gap is closing (having already closed in Japan, Germany and the UK). Although a number of our economic, monetary and technical/behavioural indicators suggest rising risk, they are on balance pointing to an up-cycle in economies and equity markets that is mature but not yet late.

Recession risk still looks low through 2017 and all the lower if plans for significant fiscal stimulus in the US are realised. So, the underlying cyclical bull market in global equities can continue through 2017. However, risk is rising and volatility can remain elevated as we move towards late cycle.

The key reflationary risk for 2017 is acceleration in expectations for Fed tightening, possibly challenging the “new neutral” assumptions currently embedded, and related Dollar strength. The key deflationary risks relate to political developments in EU/Euro-zone, protectionism and the potential for a renewed deceleration in China. So it looks like being a bumpy ride and not for the faint-hearted as markets oscillate between both inflationary and deflationary worries.

US fiscal stimulus to appease the politics of inequality-related anti-globalisation/protectionism looks like being a cyclical solution to a structural problem and with unemployment already approaching previous lows, the trade-off against monetary policy would soon emerge. Euro-zone monetary policy should remain very accommodative through 2017.

US earnings are growing again and any corporation tax cut would provide a once-off boost. Top-line progress can remain healthy as the economy continues to grow, but cyclical pressure from rising labour costs and interest rates can progressively crimp earnings growth to a pedestrian pace. European earnings have major cyclical upside but the recovery process has barely started.

Apart from any emerging cyclical forces for tighter margins and higher interest rates, any emerging protectionist reversal of globalisation, amid the politics of inequality, could trigger the structural forces for a slow mean-reversion of corporate profitability and interest rates from historically benign levels that have evolved over recent decades. Although this would be slow, largely invisible and dominated/disguised by cyclical developments over the nearer term, it could nonetheless create a structural headwind for equity markets over the longer term.

US equities look quite overvalued for the long run but this is unlikely to be exposed until pressure from tightening margins and rising interest rates becomes significantly more advanced than currently. Prospective earnings-driven total returns in mid to low single digits, still look to offer an adequate premium over prospective returns from cash and bonds. But such returns could be hard-earned as the frequency and amplitude of corrections remains elevated and actual return in the calendar year could be heavily influenced by the timing of such corrections.

In contrast to the US, European equities look to be at least modestly undervalued for the long run, suggesting potential for more than adequate absolute and relative returns over the long run.

Nonetheless, history suggests that the timing of the economic and stock market cycle in Europe will be heavily influenced by cyclical timing in the US.

The extent to which the European equity markets can realise their absolute potential upside within the US-dictated time constraints of the current cyclical bull market has been significantly improved by the ECB’s decision to fully commit to reflating the sub-par Euro-zone economy with large scale QE.

However, growing and potentially existential, political risk in the EU/Eurozone is an important counter-force arguing for a higher than normal equity risk premium in Europe through 2017. So, returns could be dictated by dividend yield plus earnings growth.

Author(s): Bernard McAlinden, ESN, [email protected], +353 87 2414826

Kate O’Dowd, ESN, [email protected], +39 02 4344 4447

mailto:[email protected]

Page 10 of 37


Leonardo

Italy/Aerospace & Defense Analyser

AEROSPACE & DEFENSE

Leonardo (Buy) The Outlook for Equity Markets

LDO reaches an important milestone on the AW101

The facts: yesterday, LDO announced that an AgustaWestland AW101 Merlin

Mk4 successfully completed its maiden flight on 24th October 2016 at its Yeovil

facility in southwest England.

LDO is upgrading 25 Royal Navy Merlin Mk3/3A aircraft to Merlin Mk4/4A

standard as part of the Merlin Life Sustainment Programme (MLSP) contract. The

MLSP contract is valued at GBP 330m and was awarded in January 2014 by the

UK Ministry of Defence (MoD). Deliveries of aircraft will start in 2017 and continue

through to 2020 with the work being performed at Leonardo’s Yeovil facility.

Our analysis: the first flight of the AW101 Mk4 is an important milestone. We

stress that AgustaWestland is in the process of assembling 12 Search And

Rescue ("SAR") AW101 for Italy and 16 helicopters for Norway.

LDO's helicopter division needs to book new orders for the AW101 to secure the

continuity of its production; AgustaWestland tried to sell 12/15 AW101 to

Singapore, but it was beaten by Airbus a few weeks ago; there are opportunities

looming in Japan (12/15 helicopters for antisom duties) and possibly in Canada

for Search And Rescue duties (9 machines), but these contracts are likely to take

some time.

Conclusion & Action: The news is positive and discounted.

Analyst(s):

Gabriele Gambarova, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 43 444 289

Buy

11.95

closing price as of 21/11/2016

15.00

Target Price unchanged

Recommendation unchanged

Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg LDOF.MI/LDO IM

Market capitalisation (EURm) 6,909

Current N° of shares (m) 578

Free float 64%

Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 2,947

Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 30,923

Price high 12 mth (EUR) 13.71

Price low 12 mth (EUR) 8.38

Abs. perf. 1 mth 5.29%


Abs. perf. 12 mth -11.87%

Key financials (EUR) 12/15 12/16e 12/17e

Sales (m) 12,995 11,859 11,673

EBITDA (m) 1,668 1,687 1,810

EBITDA margin 12.8% 14.2% 15.5%

EBIT (m) 884 1,009 1,138

EBIT margin 6.8% 8.5% 9.8%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) 524 663 590

ROCE 6.7% 7.2% 7.1%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 3,278 2,736 1,994

Net Debt/Equity 0.8 0.6 0.4

Debt/EBITDA 2.0 1.6 1.1

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 3.8 4.8 5.3

EV/Sales 0.7 0.6 0.6

EV/EBITDA 5.2 4.5 3.8

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 4.6 4.1 3.7

EV/EBIT 9.8 7.5 6.1

P/E (adj.) 14.2 10.4 11.7

P/BV 1.7 1.5 1.4

OpFCF yield 9.9% 8.2% 13.7%

Dividend yield 0.0% 2.2% 2.3%

EPS (adj.) 0.91 1.15 1.02

BVPS 7.40 8.22 8.82

DPS 0.00 0.26 0.28

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16

vvdsvdvsdy

LEONARDO Stoxx Aerospace & Defense (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Italian Government 32%; Norges Bank

2%; Libyan Investment Authority 2%;

Page 11 of 37


Aktia

Q3/2015a

EURm Q3a OP Diff. Cons. OP Cons.

Net interest income 23.9 23.7 1% 23.8 96

Commission income 20.0 19.7 2% 19.7 79

Other operating income 7.0 7.7 -9% 5.8 36.9

Total operating income 50.9 51.0 0% 49.3 212.2

Total operating expenses -34.6 -32.9 -05 % -32.4 -145

Earnings before write-downs 16.3 18.1 -10% 16.9 67

Write-downs -0.5 -0.6 18% -0.5 -1.4

Operating profit 15.8 17.5 -10% 16.4 66.6

EPS 0.19 0.21 -10% 0.20 0.80

Source: OP

Q3 2016e 2016e

Aktia

Finland/Banks Analyser

BANKS

Aktia (Accumulate) LDO reaches an important milestone on the AW101

Earnings growth lacking but the highest dividend in the sector attracts

The facts: Aktia's Q3 operating profit of EUR 15.8m fell clearly short of our

forecast (OP estimate: EUR 17.5m). The difference can be explained by costs

that grew more than we anticipated and the negative impact of EUR 1m caused

by the wind-down of Aktia Real Estate Mortgage Bank. Expenses were increased

by the delay in the testing of the new core banking systems as well as

investments in marketing as the company is seeking growth after many quiet

years. The trend in income nearly matched our expectations. Net interest income

has stabilised and fee and commission income is growing mildly.

Our analysis: In connection with the report, Aktia said that the introduction of the

new core banking system would be delayed to Q1 2017 (previous estimate:

during Q4 2016). We estimate that this will also delay other efficiency measures

enabled by the new system. We have raised our cost estimates for 2017, but the

same efficiency improvement potential still exists. The efficiency measures will

enable the continuation of the relatively stable trend in earnings, despite the

interest rates hedges maturing in 2018–2019, which will cause a dent of around

EUR 15m in net interest income during two years.

Conclusion & Action: We upgrade our recommendation to Accumulate (from

Neutral) and our target price to EUR 9.80 (from EUR 8.50). Even though the

delay in the introduction of the core banking system weakens the profit outlook for

2017, the Aktia share has missed the sharp share price rise in the sector in recent

months. At the same time the bank's dividend yield has risen to a level that is

clearly highest within the sector (7.2%), which lays a foundation for a share price

rise. The earnings-based valuation is not especially attractive but Aktia's very

high capital adequacy (CET1 19.2%) coupled with a stable operating model

based on retail banking will enable a moderate increase in the dividend in the

future, too. Our target price relies on our updated dividend discount model (DDM).

Analyst(s):

Antti Saari, OP Corporate Bank

[email protected]

+358 10 252 4359

Accumulate

9.32


9.80

8.50from Target Price: EUR

from Neutral

Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg AKTAV.HE/AKTAV FH

Market capitalisation (EURm) 621


Free float 70%

Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 23

Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 913







Total Revenue (m) 208 211 210

Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 64 64 66

Operating profit (OP) 64 63 64

Earnings Before Tax (m) 64 63 64

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 51 51 51

Shareholders Equity (m) 615 631 638

Tangible BV (m) 615 631 638

RWA (m) 1,999 2,121 2,060

ROTE 8.3% 8.1% 8.0%

Total Capital Ratio (B3) 27.1% 26.1% 28.6%

Cost/Income 69.4% 69.5% 68.4%

NPL ratio (gross) 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%

P/PPP 10.8 9.7 9.3

P/E (adj.) 13.5 12.2 12.1

P/BV 1.1 1.0 1.0

P/TBV 1.1 1.0 1.0

Dividend Yield 6.9% 7.2% 7.4%

PPPPS 0.96 0.97 1.00

EPS (adj.) 0.76 0.76 0.77

BVPS 9.24 9.47 9.58

TBVPS 9.24 9.47 9.58

DPS 0.64 0.67 0.69

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5


vvdsvdvsdy

AKTIA Stoxx Banks (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Tre Smeder Foundation 9%; Pension

Insurance Company Veritas 9%; Svenska

litteraturssällskapet i Finland 8%;

Page 12 of 37


Banca MPS

Italy/Banks Analyser

BANKS

Banca MPS (Rating Suspended) Earnings growth lacking but the highest dividend in the sector attracts

EGM quorum almost reached

The facts: According to press rumours, the quorum needed to held the EGM on

Thursday has almost been reached.

Our analysis: The press reminds us the quorum needed to held the EGM is at

least 20% of capital and reports the proxy advisor Morrow Sodali has done a good

job. Considering also the current main shareholders of the bank (The Economy

Ministry, Axa, Fintech) some 16-17% of capital would have already been

acquired.

Conclusion & Action: The execution risk of the planned EUR 5bn capital

increase remains high. Our rating remains suspended.

Analyst(s):

Luigi Tramontana, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4239

Rating Suspended

0.23



Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg BMPS.MI/BMPS IM


Current N° of shares (m) 2,932

Free float 90%









Total Revenue (m) 5,216 1,663 4,224

Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 2,327 -1,267 1,483

Operating profit (OP) 336 -4,898 604

Earnings Before Tax (m) 439 -4,879 494

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 294 -4,935 684

Shareholders Equity (m) 9,596 4,783 5,337

Tangible BV (m) 9,588 4,775 5,329

RWA (m) 70,828 80,533 80,529

ROTE 3.8% -68.7% 13.5%

Total Capital Ratio (B3) 16.0% 13.6% 15.6%

Cost/Income 50.4% nm 60.4%

NPL ratio (gross) 16.3% 22.0% 22.5%

P/PPP 1.6 -0.5 0.4

P/E (adj.) 12.3 nm 1.0

P/BV 0.4 0.1 0.1

P/TBV 0.4 0.1 0.1

Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

PPPPS 0.79 -0.43 0.51

EPS (adj.) 0.10 -1.68 0.23

BVPS 3.27 1.63 1.82

TBVPS 3.27 1.63 1.82

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

ott 15 nov 15 dic 15 gen 16 feb 16 mar 16 apr 16 mag 16 giu 16 lug 16 ago 16 set 16 ott 16 nov 16

vvdsvdvsdy

BANCA MPS Stoxx Banks (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Fintech Advisory 2%; Axa 3%; Italian

Government 4%;

Page 13 of 37


B EK price in C hina, USD / to nne ( impo rt prices o f B razil and C hile)

Source: FOEX Indexes Lt d

400

500

600

700

Sep 2014 Mar 2015 Sep 2015 Mar 2016 Sep 2016

Lower end Upper end

Stora Enso

Finland/Basic Resources Analyser

BASIC RESOURCES

Stora Enso (Accumulate) EGM quorum almost reached

Suzano to raise BEK pulp price in China

The facts: The Brazilian BEK pulp producer has announced that it will raise the

price of BEK pulp in China. The company’s new list price at the beginning of

December will be USD 550 per tonne, that is USD 20 more compared to the

current price. The previous time the company raised its list prices was in October

with a similar USD 20 increase per tonne.

Our analysis: According to our estimate, Suzano’s price increase in December is

at least partly due to the delayed start of production at APP’s OKI mill compared

to the original schedule. According to APP, one of the lines at the new pulp mill

will start operations before the end of the year and the start-up of the other one

will be in Q1 in 2017. The capacity of the OKI mill located in southern Sumatra is

2.8 million tonnes, which is distributed evenly between two new pulp lines. Among

the Finnish forestry companies, the importance of pulp is the greatest for Stora

Enso, which has an annual market pulp position of approximately two million

tonnes.

Conclusion & Action: We reiterate our recommendation and target price for

Stora Enso unchanged.

Analyst(s):

Henri Parkkinen, OP Corporate Bank

[email protected]

+358 10 252 4409

Accumulate

8.95


9.30



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg STERV.HE/STERV FH



Free float 100%









Sales (m) 10,040 9,772 9,849

EBITDA (m) 1,447 1,403 1,434

EBITDA margin 14.4% 14.4% 14.6%

EBIT (m) 896 891 929

EBIT margin 8.9% 9.1% 9.4%


ROCE 9.6% 9.5% 9.9%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 3,388 2,842 2,632




EV/Sales 1.0 1.0 1.0

EV/EBITDA 6.9 7.1 6.8

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.9 7.1 6.8

EV/EBIT 11.2 11.1 10.4

P/E (adj.) 13.4 14.5 12.5

P/BV 1.2 1.2 1.2

OpFCF yield 5.5% 2.0% 9.1%


EPS (adj.) 0.63 0.62 0.72

BVPS 6.98 7.27 7.64

DPS 0.33 0.35 0.40

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vvdsvdvsdy

STORA ENSO Stoxx Basic Resources (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: FAM AB 10%; Solidium Oy 12%; Social

Insurance Institution of Finland 3%;

Page 14 of 37


KWS Saat

Germany/Chemicals Analyser

CHEMICALS

KWS Saat (Buy) Suzano to raise BEK pulp price in China

Q1 preview

The facts: KWS Saat is going to publish Q1 numbers on Thursday the 24th

. As

outlined in our initiation study (click here) published on November 3rd

, KWS’

seed business is to a large extent concentrated in the Northern hemisphere and

therefore highly seasonal in nature. Accordingly, KWS usually realizes only

around 11-13% of annual revenues between July 1st and September 30

th. There

are no consensus estimates for Q1 available.

Our analysis: Notwithstanding, we expect some yoy improvements in quarterly

sales and EBIT based on following considerations: The top line will be supported

by (1) KWS’ expansion into the Southern hemisphere with corn and (2) the

decision of the Argentinian government to lift the export tax on corn and other

crops, which has resulted in a significant increase of relevant acreage already in

2016 (small effect for the full year but significant in Q1 for KWS). As regards

EBIT, we expect positive effects not only from higher contributions of the

Argentinian corn business but also from (1) lower seed production costs in corn

and (2) lower royalties for licensed-in GMO technology in Argentina, in Q1

overcompensating the group-wide increased depreciation on the recently in-

licensed GMO technology. Notwithstanding, investors should refrain from

extrapolating FY 2016/17 from positive effects visible in Q1.

Conclusion & Action: We expect KWS to report good Q1 numbers that

compare favourably with last year’s first quarter. However, investors are well-

advised to not read too much into Q1 which is a “small” quarter for an European

seed company.

Analyst(s):

Dr. Knud Hinkel, CFA, equinet Bank

[email protected]

+ 49 69 58997 419

Buy

293.75


346.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg KWSG.DE/KWS GY



Free float 29%









Sales (m) 1,037 1,075 1,152

EBITDA (m) 161 178 194

EBITDA margin 15.5% 16.5% 16.9%

EBIT (m) 113 125 136

EBIT margin 10.9% 11.6% 11.8%


ROCE 8.9% 9.2% 9.3%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 88 73 55




EV/Sales 2.2 2.0 1.9

EV/EBITDA 13.9 12.4 11.2

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 13.9 12.4 11.2

EV/EBIT 19.9 17.6 16.0

P/E (adj.) 23.0 19.9 17.4

P/BV 2.6 2.3 2.1

OpFCF yield 1.6% 1.8% 2.0%


EPS (adj.) 12.92 14.80 16.91

BVPS 115.99 127.79 141.37

DPS 3.00 3.00 3.33

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Okt 15 Nov 15 Dez 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mrz 16 Apr 16 Mai 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Okt 16 Nov 16

vvdsvdvsdy

KWS SAAT CDAX (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: GIESECKE BUECHTING FAMILY 31%;

OETKER AREND FAMILY 25%;

TESSNER HANS JOACHIM 15%;

http://www.equinet-ag.de/download.php?file=2016%2011%2003%20EB%20(Initiation%20KWS%20Saat).pdf

Page 15 of 37


Acomo

Netherlands/Food & Beverage Analyser

FOOD & BEVERAGE

Acomo (Neutral) Q1 preview Neutral

20.00


21.00


from Accumulate

Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ARBN.AS/ACOMO NA



Free float 41%









Sales (m) 682 706 725

EBITDA (m) 51 52 53

EBITDA margin 7.5% 7.3% 7.3%

EBIT (m) 47 48 49

EBIT margin 6.9% 6.7% 6.7%


ROCE 12.0% 11.9% 11.9%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 107 106 102




EV/Sales 1.0 0.8 0.8

EV/EBITDA 12.8 11.2 11.0

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 12.8 11.2 11.0

EV/EBIT 14.0 12.2 11.9

P/E (adj.) 17.4 14.5 14.3

P/BV 3.3 2.7 2.5

OpFCF yield 3.0% 5.4% 5.9%


EPS (adj.) 1.34 1.38 1.40

BVPS 7.06 7.52 7.92

DPS 1.00 0.99 1.01

Weak pepper prices and CEO change: too spicy?

The facts: While in the period 2011-2015 the pepper prices in Malaysia and

Vietnam by 50% in US$ terms, the prices in recent months have declined

substantially, by 40%. Not in all grades these declines were dramatic.

Vietnamese pepper has been criticized as containing too much pesticide. The use

of pesticides in Vietnam is normal due to the humidity of the climate and the fact

that the pepper plantations are not located in the higher more dry areas.

Increasing criticism comes at a time that Vietnamese plantations seem to have

expanded their capacity much stronger than expected, putting further pressure on

pepper prices. Vietnam is the largest exporter on the global pepper market.

Our analysis: Pepper is one of the crucial commodities traded by Acomo’s

subsidiary Catz International. This entity contributes c. 40% to Acomo’s net profit

and of this contribution we do not exclude that pepper is contributing close to

halve of this. For many years Catz has benefited from the increasing price level in

pepper. Of course, Catz and Acomo’s business model is supported by volatility of

prices; however, rising prices can fulfil an additional profit stream in the long-term

as on-balance the company is long in its positions. As one of the main

participants in the black pepper market, Catz always buys the material from

plantations in order to be a reliable buyer and always wants to have some

inventory (in particular when markets are tight) to be a reliable supplier of the

material to its customers.

Catz has been investing its cash flows to expand into species and into nuts and

dry fruit trade. Also Acomo itself has been diversifying its business into other

areas, like tea and edible seeds. Sustainability has been another focus area and

this is certainly the only way forward for the company. In pepper Acomo is already

benefiting from this in certain harvests/customers. Other compensation comes

from business improvements in Tea and megatrend growth in Nuts. Nevertheless,

we expect that the current development in pepper prices will limit profit growth

opportunities for Acomo and we think that management will have done a good job

if it is able to stabilize profits in 2016.

Conclusion & Action: For a long time there has been a correlation between

pepper prices and the share price of Acomo. Now that since mid-2016 the prices

in Vietnam and Malaysia really have come down, also Acomo’s share price has

been a bit weak. This comes on top of the relative meagre M&A activity in the last

few years, which will probably not change in the coming 12-months as CEO Erik

Rietkerk will leave the company in spring 2017. A new CEO will need time to

learn to know the company. It will take time to find one with a good background

as Acomo needs to fill in further the route to sustainability on the one side and

having good relations with debt and equity providers for M&A on the other side.

Therefore, we do not see triggers for the share price, in fact risks in the pepper

price impact and the replacement of the CEO. The dividend yield will give support

to the downside. We downgrade to NEUTRAL.

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ACOMO Stoxx Food & Beverage (Rebased)Source: Factset Shareholders: Mont Cervin 15%; Red Wood Trust 10%;

Mawer 13%; Todlin 5%; Monolith 5%;

Exploitatiemaatschappij Westerduin 5%;

Manulife 4%; FMR 3%;

Analyst(s):

Gerard Rijk, NIBC Markets N.V.

[email protected]

+ 31 (0)20 550 8572

Page 16 of 37


Jeronimo Martins

Portugal/Food & Drug Retailers Analyser


Jeronimo Martins (Accumulate) Weak pepper prices and CEO change: too spicy?

Poland - Food Retail Sales in October 2016 (+4.2% YoY)

The facts: According to the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS) the sale of

Food, Beverages and Tobacco (FB&T) increased by 4.2% YoY in October vs.

+6.3% YoY in September 2016. At constant prices, sales of FB&T grew by 3.7%

YoY in October vs. +6.3% YoY in September.

Total retail sales in Poland presented a 3.7% YoY growth in October 2016 from

+4.8% YoY in September. At constant prices, total retail sales rose by 4.6% YoY in

October vs +6.3% YoY in September.

Our analysis: October figures presented a deceleration in the YoY growth of food

retail sales in Poland. In any case, the growth remained sound (+4.2% YoY) and

also supported by the low (but positive) price evolution in this segment.

In this context, FB&T sales presented a 5.5% monthly average growth YTD in

2016 (+5.8% YoY in 3Q16 and vs. +2.3% monthly average for FY15).

Inflation – In terms of prices, it was visible another positive evolution in October.

The YoY increase of prices in the FB&T segment remains low but positive (+0.5%

YoY in October vs. +0.4% YoY in September), thus maintaining an inflation trend

in the Polish market, as this was the 14th consecutive month with a positive

evolution of price indices, following 14 months of deflation (July 2014 to August

2015).

Exhibit 1: Polish total retail sales and FB&T sales YoY evolution (%)

Source: Polish statistical office & CaixaBI Equity Research.

Conclusion & Action: Consistent with the monthly figures reported throughout

this year, October data represented a positive newsflow for Jerónimo Martins

(Biedronka). In spite of the deceleration in October, food retail sales in Poland

continue to present a strong underlying trend in 2016 (with a monthly average

growth close to +5.5% YoY). Additionally, the positive evolution of prices observed

this year is also a driver for the company. This evolution should help Biedronka to

maintain a sound sales momentum and to support a recovery in its profitability.

JMT reported a strong LfL sales growth for Biedronka in 9M16 (+8.7% YoY, with

+8.5% YoY in 3Q16). We do not expect the positive underlying trend to decelerate

in the short term. However, the next quarters will have a tougher comparable basis

(as Biedronka presented a strong deliver of its sales strategy in 2H15).

In this context, the market should be cautious when using those 9M16 figures as a

“proxy” for the next quarters. In any case, Biedronka should continue to benefit

from the improved consumer demand (partially due to some public measures), in

spite of the declining value of the local currency (-4.0% YtD).

Analyst(s):

André Rodrigues, Caixa-Banco de Investimento

[email protected]

+351 21 389 68 39

Accumulate

14.83


16.30



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg JMT.LS/JMT PL



Free float 32%









Sales (m) 13,728 14,559 15,583

EBITDA (m) 800 864 943


EBIT (m) 505 569 630

EBIT margin 3.7% 3.9% 4.0%


ROCE 20.7% 20.3% 20.2%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 216 (109) (144)

Net Debt/Equity 0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Debt/EBITDA 0.3 -0.1 -0.2


EV/Sales 0.6 0.6 0.6

EV/EBITDA 9.7 10.8 9.8

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 9.7 10.8 9.8

EV/EBIT 15.3 16.3 14.7

P/E (adj.) 22.6 15.1 21.1

P/BV 5.6 5.2 4.6

OpFCF yield 6.3% 4.1% 2.6%


EPS (adj.) 0.53 0.98 0.70

BVPS 2.13 2.85 3.24

DPS 0.27 0.31 0.35

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vvdsvdvsdy

JERONIMO MARTINS Stoxx Food & Drug Retailers (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Soc. Franc. Manuel dos Santos, SGPS,

SA 56%; Aberdeen Asset Managers 5%;

Heerema Holding Company Inc 5%;

0.8%

3.7%

4.6%4.2%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Total Retail Sales FB&T Sales

Page 17 of 37


Jeronimo Martins

Portugal/Food & Drug Retailers Analyser


Jeronimo Martins (Accumulate) Poland - Food Retail Sales in October 2016 (+4.2% YoY)

Accumulate

14.83


16.30



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg JMT.LS/JMT PL



Free float 32%









Sales (m) 13,728 14,559 15,583

EBITDA (m) 800 864 943


EBIT (m) 505 569 630

EBIT margin 3.7% 3.9% 4.0%


ROCE 20.7% 20.3% 20.2%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 216 (109) (144)

Net Debt/Equity 0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Debt/EBITDA 0.3 -0.1 -0.2


EV/Sales 0.6 0.6 0.6

EV/EBITDA 9.7 10.8 9.8

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 9.7 10.8 9.8

EV/EBIT 15.3 16.3 14.7

P/E (adj.) 22.6 15.1 21.1

P/BV 5.6 5.2 4.6

OpFCF yield 6.3% 4.1% 2.6%


EPS (adj.) 0.53 0.98 0.70

BVPS 2.13 2.85 3.24

DPS 0.27 0.31 0.35

Fair value revision to EUR 16.30 and rollover for YE17

The facts: We have updated our estimates for Jerónimo Martins (JM) following the

presentation of its 3Q16 results. We also rolled over the valuation for YE17.

Accordingly, we have increased our fair value to EUR 16.30 from EUR 15.20 and

maintained the Accumulate recommendation.

Our analysis: Strong operational performance in 3Q16 - JM reported another

positive set of results in 3Q16 (21 October) with all the main banners presenting a

sales performance above consensus. This was driven by Biedronka (Poland)

which accounted for 67% of consolidated sales and where LfL sales growth stood

at 8.5% YoY in 3Q16 (+8.7% YoY in 9M16). Biedronka continues to benefit from

the improved consumer demand (partially due to some public measures), in spite

of the declining value of the local currency (-4.0% YtD).

Positive market trends: Return of Food inflation and solid sales growth - The

competitive environment remained intense in Poland and Portugal with a visible

focus on price promotions but with a solid evolution of sales. This positive dynamics

on sales is expected to continue in the company core markets.

Solid Balance sheet (EUR 179m net cash position) - According to JM, the Board of

Directors is analysing options to apply this “excess cash”, which could include the

payment of an extraordinary dividend (from our point of view, the most likely

scenario), further investments in JM operations or even a non-organic acquisition.

Postponement of the retail tax - The Polish government suspended the

implementation of the retail tax until YE17, also supporting the positive momentum

for the sector in Poland.

Conclusion & Action: JM shares drop by around 8.4% since the presentation of

3Q16 results, a movement related to the strong performance of the stock in the

previous months. In fact, JM shares continue to present a 26.5% gain in the year

vs. +1.1% YTD for the Euro Stoxx Retail Index (SXRE). The stock is trading with a

P/E17e of 21.1x (or 18.8x if we exclude the losses for Ara & Hebe) vs. an average

P/E17e of 14.8x for the Food retail companies covered by ESN. We reiterate a

positive view on JM and on its capacity to maintain a solid performance on sales

and profitability (EPS CAGR of 14.4% in the 2015-2019e period).

For further details please see our company update: “Solid investment case.

Strong sales growth to continue.” published today before the market

opening.

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vvdsvdvsdy

JERONIMO MARTINS Stoxx Food & Drug Retailers (Rebased)Source: Factset Shareholders: Soc. Franc. Manuel dos Santos, SGPS,

SA 56%; Aberdeen Asset Managers 5%;

Heerema Holding Company Inc 5%; Analyst(s):

André Rodrigues, Caixa-Banco de Investimento

[email protected]

+351 21 389 68 39

Page 18 of 37


Huhtamäki

Finland/General Industrials Analyser

GENERAL INDUSTRIALS

Huhtamäki (Buy) Fair value revision to EUR 16.30 and rollover for YE17

New financial targets announced

The facts: Huhtamäki published this morning its new long-term ambitions (3–5

years) ahead of today's Capital Markets Day.

The new targets are:

Comparable growth 5+ % (previously: organic growth 5–7%)

Acquisitive growth 5+ % (previously: no target)

EBIT margin 10+ % (previously: 9+ %)

ROI 15+ % (previously: 15%)

Conclusion & Action: The new targets are largely in line with our expectations

and market forecasts and support the company's positive outlook.

Analyst(s):

Jari Raisanen, OP Corporate Bank

[email protected]

+358 10 252 4504

Buy

34.60


41.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg HUH1V.HE/HUH1V FH



Free float 100%









Sales (m) 2,726 2,861 3,035

EBITDA (m) 316 381 405

EBITDA margin 11.6% 13.3% 13.3%

EBIT (m) 215 269 293

EBIT margin 7.9% 9.4% 9.7%


ROCE 8.8% 10.2% 10.6%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 562 595 576




EV/Sales 1.5 1.5 1.4

EV/EBITDA 12.7 10.9 10.2

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 12.7 10.9 10.2

EV/EBIT 18.7 15.5 14.1

P/E (adj.) 23.3 18.7 16.9

P/BV 3.7 3.3 3.0

OpFCF yield 1.7% 2.5% 3.9%


EPS (adj.) 1.43 1.85 2.05

BVPS 9.13 10.34 11.59

DPS 0.66 0.80 0.90

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HUHTAMÄKI Stoxx General Industrials (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Finnish Cultural Foundation 14%;

Ilmarinen Mutual Pension Insurance

Company 3%; Odin Norden 1.97%;

Page 19 of 37


Fourlis Holdings

Greece/General Retailers Analyser

GENERAL RETAILERS

Fourlis Holdings (Buy) New financial targets announced

Release of 3Q16 results today post market close

The facts: Fourlis is set to release its 3Q16 results today post market close, while

a conference call is scheduled for tomorrow at 17:00 Athens time (15:00 UK

time). We look for revenues of EUR 119m (+5.5% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 13.2m

(+17% y-o-y) and net profits of EUR 4.2m (+43% y-o-y). For the 9-month period of

2016 we forecast revenues of EUR 312m (+5.7% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 25.1m

(+37% y-o-y) and net profits of EUR 0.9m from losses of EUR 3.6m in the

respective period of 2015.

Our Analysis: We expect robust 3Q16 results on the back of the favourable base

effect in Greece and the continuation of the solid momentum for international

activities (mainly for IKEA Bulgaria and Intersport Romania). Starting from the

home furnishing division (IKEA), we forecast revenues of EUR 82m (+7% y-o-y)

driven by the strong performance of Bulgaria (double-digit growth) and the good

performance of Greece (mid-to-high single digit increase). Intersport’s sales are

seen growing by a 6.0% y-o-y to EUR 37m thanks to the healthy sales growth in

Greece and Romania and the positive contribution of ‘The Athlete’s Foot’ (TAF)

stores. Overall, retail revenues (IKEA, Intersport) are seen at EUR 119m (+6.7%

y-o-y) in 3Q16, driving 9M16e sales to EUR 312m (+7% y-o-y). Recall that Fourlis

recorded revenues from discontinued operations of EUR 1.3m in 3Q15 and EUR

4.8m in 9M15. On the EBITDA front, we look for operating profits of EUR 10m

(+16% y-o-y) for IKEA and EUR 3.5m (+15.5% y-o-y) for Intersport in the quarter.

Fourlis 9M16 results preview

EUR m 9M15a 9M16e IBG % YoY

Revenues 295.6 312.4 5.7%

EBITDA 18.3 25.1 37.1%

margin 6.2% 8.0%

Net -3.6 0.9

Source: The Company, IBG Research

Conclusion & Action: All in all, we expect Fourlis to maintain its positive

momentum in 3Q16 on organic growth for both concepts, new store openings in

the sporting goods segment and an easy comparison basis in Greece after the

imposition of capital controls last year. In the conference call, we will seek an

update about the current trading trends, as the last 4 months of each fiscal year

are seasonally the most important period for Foulis’s operations (mainly IKEA).

We maintain our positive stance on the stock.

Analyst(s):

Dimitris Birbos, Investment Bank of Greece

[email protected]

+30 210 81 73 392

Natalia Svyrou-Svyriadi Investment Bank of Greece

[email protected]

+30 210 81 73 384

Buy

4.00


5.50



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg FRLr.AT/FOYRK GA



Free float 69%









Sales (m) 414 434 457

EBITDA (m) 33 40 46


EBIT (m) 19 27 33

EBIT margin 4.6% 6.1% 7.2%


ROCE 6.1% 8.7% 10.8%





EV/Sales 0.5 0.7 0.7

EV/EBITDA 6.9 7.7 6.4

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.9 7.7 6.4

EV/EBIT 11.6 11.7 9.0

P/E (adj.) nm 26.5 17.1

P/BV 1.0 1.2 1.2

OpFCF yield 11.3% 7.5% 7.3%


EPS (adj.) 0.00 0.15 0.23

BVPS 3.09 3.22 3.41

DPS 0.00 0.04 0.07

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


vvdsvdvsdy

FOURLIS HOLDINGS Athex Composite (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Dafni Fourli 21%; Mitica 5%; Fidelity 5%;

Page 20 of 37


Accsys Technologies

Netherlands/Industrial Engineering Analyser


Accsys Technologies (Buy) Release of 3Q16 results today post market close

Buy

0.80


1.15



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ACCS.AS/AXS NA



Free float 51%









Sales (m) 53 57 65

EBITDA (m) 2 3 5


EBIT (m) (0) 0 0

EBIT margin nm 0.5% 0.6%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) (1) (0) 0

ROCE -0.5% 0.4% 0.5%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (8) 2 14

Net Debt/Equity -0.2 0.1 0.3

Debt/EBITDA -3.4 0.8 3.0

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 17.7 149.0 (49.5)

EV/Sales 1.2 1.3 1.3

EV/EBITDA 26.5 24.2 17.7

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 26.5 24.2 17.7

EV/EBIT nm nm nm

P/E (adj.) nm nm nm

P/BV 1.7 1.6 1.5

OpFCF yield -4.7% -15.8% -17.4%


EPS (adj.) (0.01) (0.00) 0.00

BVPS 0.47 0.49 0.52

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

Slowdown in revenue growth due to capacity limitations

The facts: Accsys reported its first half results of book year ending March 2017.

Revenues were down 5% and EBITDA changed from a profit to a loss. Underlying

volumes were up 4%. Management does not provide any guidance for the full

year. Conference call at 10am GMT.

P&L, EUR m 1H 3/16 1H 3/17 % change

Sales 26.3 25.1 -5%

Gross margin 36% 27%

EBITDA 1.3 -1.3

Net profit reported -0.1 -2.9

Source: Accsys, NIBC Markets Research

Our analysis: Revenues were 5% lower, mainly due to lower revenues from

Licensing & Business development (last year one-off fee rom Solvay of EUR

1.3m), but also an unexpected supply chain bottleneck. Accsys stated that this

problem has been solved now but it still expects further investment in inventory.

Revenues from Accoya wood increased 3% with 4% higher volumes. Revenues

to Medite declined 2%. Revenue growth was slower than last year as the

company is nearing its full capacity. The company also had its annual

maintenance stop in September versus October last year, which also had an

impact on volumes in the reported period and thus margins.

As a result of lower revenues and higher costs (o.a. maintenance stop and costs

for development of Tricoya), gross margin dropped from 36% to 27%. EBITDA

turned from a profit of EUR 1.3m into a loss of EUR 1.3m, due to lower business

development revenues, timing of annual maintenance stop, lower prices to Solvay

and higher costs related to Tricoya consortium.

Accsys is making good progress with the expansion of the capacity in Arnhem

with 20,000m³ and building work has commenced. Accsys now expects the

additional capacity to come on stream in December 2017 whereas previously

mid-2017 was mentioned. The company also makes good progress with the

Tricoya consortium with BP and Medite, for which the final formation and funding

is expected by the end of 2016.

Accsys’ net cash position was broadly unchanged at EUR 7.9m, the operating

loss and working capital financing being compensated for by the proceeds of the

sale and lease back of land in Arnhem of EUR 4.2m.

Accsys didn’t provide specific guidance for the full year, but expects accelerated

growth into the second half as the supply chain bottleneck has been solved.

Conclusion & Action: First half results were below expectations as we had

anticipated higher revenue growth and thus higher margins. Growth is limited due

to the fact that Accsys is nearing full capacity. The company is making good

progress with the additional capacity in Arnhem and the Tricoya consortium but it

will take some time before these are fully operational. Long term growth prospects

are still very good but short growth will be limited for capacity reasons. Our DCF

indicates a value of EUR 1.15, including a value attached to the Solvay and the

Tricoya plant. We have a Buy rating. We have a Buy rating. .

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10


vvdsvdvsdy

ACCSYS TECHNOLOGIES Amsterdam Small Cap Index (Rebased)Source: Factset Shareholders: Henderson 6%; Royal Bank of Canada

6%; INEOS 5%; Majedie UK Equity Fund

5%; OP-Pohjola Group Central

Cooperative 5%; Fidelity International

Analyst(s):

Johan van den Hooven, NIBC Markets N.V.

[email protected]

+312 0 5508518

Page 21 of 37


Kalmar - Sales and margin excl. NRI

Source: Cargotec, OP

-6.0 %

-3.0 %

0.0 %

3.0 %

6.0 %

9.0 %

12.0 %

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Sales, EURm (LHS) Margin (RHS) Average

Cargotec Corp

Finland/Industrial Engineering Analyser


Cargotec Corp (Accumulate) Slowdown in revenue growth due to capacity limitations

Cargotec – Kalmar invests in services, automation and software

The facts: Cargotec organised a visit at Kalmar’s Technology and Competence

Centre in Tampere. The visit was hosted by Antti Kaunonen, who started as

Kalmar’s CEO in July. Key topics included services and automation/software.

Services have been a disappointment, and the targeted earnings effects have not

been achieved. Service potential has not changed but Kalmar has not been able

to get its service operations up to speed in accordance with its targets. In our

opinion, services have not been at the core of Kalmar’s operations, and it will take

time to change that. The equipment base offers a possibility to considerably

increase service sales.

Our analysis: Cargotec’s assessments on the progress of extensive automation

projects in ports have become more cautious. Projects are being planned but

ports are taking a long time to make decisions. Partnerships between shipping

companies are changing the market and ports do not wish to make decisions

about new investments in an uncertain environment. It is probable that all new

planned automation projects will not be implemented. Kalmar does not wish to

predict a schedule for decisions but we do not anticipate that activities would pick

up in the next few quarters. Instead of completely new projects (greenfield), ports

are automating their existing operations (brownfield). Projects are distributed to

several suppliers and subjected to strict tendering, which will weigh on suppliers'

margins. According to our estimate, Kalmar’s margin as a whole will remain at

least stable as the margins of individual pieces of mobile equipment are good.

Conclusion & Action: Cargotec’s sectors are at various phases. Hiab is

generating an excellent margin that we predict will remain stable. The risk related

to MacGregor is about to be realised but its effect on Cargotec as a whole will

remain minor. So far, Kalmar is growing slowly but a success in services and

software will offer long-term potential. Cargotec’s valuation is below the sector’s

multiples, which in our opinion is not justified. We expect that investments in

services will start to be visible in 2017.

Analyst(s):

Pekka Spolander, OP Corporate Bank

[email protected]

+358 10 252 4351

Accumulate

38.58


40.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg CGCBV.HE/CGCBV FH



Free float 65%









Sales (m) 3,730 3,500 3,500

EBITDA (m) 304 316 328


EBIT (m) 227 238 244

EBIT margin 6.1% 6.8% 7.0%


ROCE 7.9% 8.9% 9.4%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 661 535 400




EV/Sales 0.7 0.8 0.8

EV/EBITDA 9.1 9.2 8.5

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 9.0 8.6 7.9

EV/EBIT 12.2 12.3 11.4

P/E (adj.) 14.0 14.6 13.5

P/BV 1.7 1.7 1.6

OpFCF yield 7.9% 4.1% 7.0%


EPS (adj.) 2.47 2.65 2.86

BVPS 20.70 22.29 23.86

DPS 0.80 1.00 1.05

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44


vvdsvdvsdy

CARGOTEC CORP Stoxx Industrial Engineering (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Ownership of Ilkka Herlin, total 14%;

Mariatorp Oy (controlled by Niklas Herlin)

12%; Pivosto Oy (controlled by Ilona

Herlin) 11%;

Page 22 of 37


Astaldi

Italy/Materials, Construction & Infrastructure Analyser


Astaldi (Reduce) Cargotec – Kalmar invests in services, automation and software

Sale of stake in Metro 5 by year end

The facts: the ceo of “Ferrovie dello stato” (Italian state railway) said that the

purchase of Astaldi’s stake in Metro 5 could be finalized by the end of the year.

Our analysis: Astaldi owns a 38.7% stake in the concession vehicle related to

the construction of a subway in Milan (Metro 5); the concession is due to expire in

2040. The concession revenue for services provided in the form of availability

charges are forecast in the sum of EUR 77m per year from 2016 to 2035 and

subsequently, EUR 56m per year through to concession expiry.

The book value of the foregoing stake is EUR 32.3m.

Conclusion & Action: this disposal would be positive news. However, as

regards the disposal plan, Turkey is clearly the key market for the company since

Astaldi has invested around EUR 450m in Turkish concession projects

Analyst(s):

Francesco Sala, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4240

Reduce

4.10


3.40



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg AST.MI/AST IM



Free float 48%









Sales (m) 2,855 2,972 3,204

EBITDA (m) 356 396 379

EBITDA margin 12.5% 13.3% 11.8%

EBIT (m) 277 327 288

EBIT margin 9.7% 11.0% 9.0%


ROCE 19.6% 18.5% -29.3%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 989 1,122 1,152




EV/Sales 0.5 0.5 0.5

EV/EBITDA 4.4 3.9 4.1

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 4.4 3.9 4.1

EV/EBIT 5.6 4.7 5.4

P/E (adj.) 6.9 4.9 4.6

P/BV 0.9 0.6 0.6

OpFCF yield -26.9% -34.0% -7.6%


EPS (adj.) 0.81 0.84 0.90

BVPS 6.35 6.80 7.43

DPS 0.20 0.21 0.23

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0


vvdsvdvsdy

ASTALDI Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Astaldi family 52%;

Page 23 of 37


Obrascon Huarte Lain

Spain/Materials, Construction & Infrastructure Analyser


Obrascon Huarte Lain (Neutral) Sale of stake in Metro 5 by year end

Marmaray contract

The facts: OHL has reached an agreement to finish Marmaray Contract.

Our analysis: Turkish Government has passed a decree proposing Marmaray

contract partial amendment. Completion date has been postponed to 31/12/2018

and three local contractors will be in charge of completing the works. OHL will

remain just as general contractor and therefore construction risk is removed.

Conclusion & Action: Good news for OHL but already known. Legacy contracts

will drain EUR 300m in 18/24 months and claims account for a similar amount.

Moreover OHL planned EUR 300m asset disposal, the entrance of a partner in

part of the concession business and the sale of some assets in this business. We

keep our neutral stance on the stock.

Analyst(s):

Rafael Fernández de Heredia, GVC Gaesco Beka

[email protected]

+34 91 436 78 08

Neutral

2.61


4.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg OHL.MC/OHL SM



Free float 27%









Sales (m) 4,369 4,150 4,346

EBITDA (m) 967 968 1,025

EBITDA margin 22.1% 23.3% 23.6%

EBIT (m) 685 975 876

EBIT margin 15.7% 23.5% 20.2%


ROCE 17.4% 26.5% 20.4%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 4,007 4,331 4,825




EV/Sales 1.5 1.5 1.6

EV/EBITDA 6.9 6.6 6.9

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.9 6.6 6.9

EV/EBIT 9.7 6.5 8.0

P/E (adj.) 9.8 6.8 6.7

P/BV 0.5 0.2 0.2

OpFCF yield -28.4% -101.5% -21.2%


EPS (adj.) 0.54 0.38 0.39

BVPS 10.20 10.89 11.18

DPS 0.05 0.10 0.10

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0


vvdsvdvsdy

OBRASCON HUARTE LAIN IGBM (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Inmobiliaria Espacio 51%; Invesco 6%;

Tyrus 8%;

Page 24 of 37


Spanish Media

Analyser

MEDIA

Marmaray contract SPAIN: Who will pay the Second Digital Dividend?

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16

vvdsvdvsdy

The facts: According to press, the main media groups with interests in TV FTA

(Atresmedia/Mediaset España, Fenitel -antennas- and Cellnex - broadcasting)

are pushing telecommunications operators to bear the costs incurred in the

Second Digital Dividend.

Our analysis: This phenomenon will involve moving back the frequency band

intended for DTT TV channels forcing a retuning (it may not involve changes

in antennae) of TVs. Remember that the lower spectrum favours indoor

coverage and faster data transmission.

The deadline set by the EU is 2020 and, while some countries such as

Germany executed its spectrum auctions aimed at MNOs, Spain has yet to

determine the details and assumptions for the second digital dividend.

TV channels and radio have reserved frequencies below 700MHz until at least

2030 (revision in 2025) according to the EU.

Conclusion: The new spectrum auctions are a source of revenue for

governments that the decision is not expected to be dilated.

The TV groups (MSE/A3M) must move their channels by 2020. This will

involve retuning televisions with the associated losses of audiences and

inconvenience to users. The direct costs (specially simultcast) were paid in the

First Digital Dividend by the media/infrastructure groups. We predict it won’t be

the last move in the future, limiting the spectrum available for TV in favour of

mobile broadband and data traffic.

However, new multiplexing technologies (eg. DVB-T2 compression HEVC)

enable to compress double the number of channels without losing quality

but will require a compatible decoder already included in much of next-

generation TVs.

---------- Stoxx Media,

DJ Stoxx TMI rebased on sector

Analyst(s):

Eduardo Garcia Arguelles, GVC Gaesco Beka

[email protected]

+34 914 367 810

Page 25 of 37


Changes in advertising in Finland, 2015- (YoY, %), main types

Source:TNS Gallup

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1/15 3/15 5/15 7/15 9/15 11/15 1/16 3/16 5/16 7/16 9/16

Newspapers Television Total Online media (rhs)

Alma Media

Finland/Media Analyser

MEDIA

Alma Media (Accumulate) SPAIN: Who will pay the Second Digital Dividend?

Soft October for Finnish media advertising

The facts: TNS Gallup’s recent figures for media advertising in Finland are a

slight disappointment. As a whole, the advertising market declined by 3% in

October due to the weak print market (magazines -18.5% and newspapers -8%).

Our analysis: The weak performance of magazines is due to the number of

magazines published in October as according to our estimate, there was one less

issue of magazines published in October compared to 2015 (magazines that are

published towards the end of the week). This interpretation is also supported by

an exceptionally good September for magazines (+8%). Besides print media,

television advertising was also showing a negative performance (-1.4%) in

October. The growth in online media (+14%) was at the same level as in

September. Month-specific changes in media advertising are still significant. July

and September were reasonable whereas August and October have remained

soft. The trend has been that the figures have slowly continued to improve and we

expect that, as a whole, the market will generate slightly positive results in

November and December. Our favourite among Finnish media companies is

Alma Media.

Conclusion & Action: We reiterate our recommendation and target price for

Alma Media unchanged.

Analyst(s):

Kimmo Stenvall, OP Corporate Bank

[email protected]

+358 10 252 4561

Accumulate

5.16


5.50



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ALN1V.HE/ALN1V FH



Free float 70%









Sales (m) 292 356 358

EBITDA (m) 35 49 58

EBITDA margin 11.9% 13.7% 16.2%

EBIT (m) 18 31 43

EBIT margin 6.1% 8.7% 11.9%


ROCE 6.3% 11.3% 16.3%





EV/Sales 1.1 1.3 1.3

EV/EBITDA 8.9 9.7 7.7

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.9 9.7 7.7

EV/EBIT 17.5 15.3 10.5

P/E (adj.) 22.9 23.1 14.8

P/BV 1.9 3.1 2.8

OpFCF yield -2.3% 7.3% 10.0%


EPS (adj.) 0.13 0.22 0.35

BVPS 1.56 1.67 1.86

DPS 0.12 0.15 0.17

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5


vvdsvdvsdy

ALMA MEDIA OMXH (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Ilkka Corporation 27%; Mutual Pension

Insurance Company Varma 19%; Life

Insurance Company Mandatum 7%;

Page 26 of 37


Ibersol

Portugal/Travel & Leisure Analyser

TRAVEL & LEISURE

Ibersol (Buy) Soft October for Finnish media advertising

9M16 results comment – strong figures

The facts: Ibersol released its 9M16 results on November 21, after market close.

Our analysis: Sales rose 14.1% yoy, fuelled by domestic market growth (Ibersol

refers to a 5% domestic market growth in the period and 2% in Spain), by the

positive impact of restaurants’ VAT reduction and by new units’ larger selling

areas. Counters (includes KFC and Burger King) were the best performing

segment, with a 20.6% yoy growth, while Restaurants grew 10.1%. EBITDA, as

expected, was significantly larger than during the 9M15 and 14.5% higher than

our estimates (on an adjusted basis), benefiting from higher dilution of Ibersol’s

operational costs. Net Profit nearly doubled the 9M15 result, totalling EUR 18.1m.

Net Debt ended the period at EUR 36.7m (EUR 16.9m in 9M15) but Ibersol made

an advance payment on Eat-Out’s purchase of EUR 10m and continued to

purchase Angolan bonds as a means of hedging the local company’s currency

risk. Ibersol also added that it paid EUR 77m for Eat-Out’s capital and that the

deal’s total amount was EUR 105m.

Conclusion & Action. Ibersol’s 9M16 results were even better than we were

expecting, with top and bottom line growth reaching high levels, even when

adjusted for non-recurrent gains. Ibersol captured part of the VAT reduction (the

company estimates it had a 5% effect on the quarter’s sales), but the bulk of the

observed operational improvement was organic. The company released another

detail about Eat-Out’s purchase deal but we would like to know more about the

acquired company’s balance sheet and historical results in order to have a better

grasp of what the deal may mean to Ibersol’s future. The stock should react

positively to the results presented.

Analyst(s):

José Mota Freitas, CFA, Caixa-Banco de Investimento

[email protected]

+351 22 607 09 31

Buy

11.35


10.67



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg IBS.LS/IBS PL



Free float 23%









Sales (m) 216 236 257

EBITDA (m) 33 36 40

EBITDA margin 15.1% 15.1% 15.7%

EBIT (m) 18 20 23

EBIT margin 8.5% 8.4% 9.0%


ROCE 8.4% 8.5% 9.8%





EV/Sales 0.8 1.3 1.1

EV/EBITDA 5.3 8.4 7.1

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 5.3 8.4 7.1

EV/EBIT 9.4 15.1 12.4

P/E (adj.) 14.0 22.4 19.0

P/BV 1.1 1.9 1.8

OpFCF yield -6.3% 0.5% 4.7%


EPS (adj.) 0.53 0.51 0.60

BVPS 6.50 5.85 6.35

DPS 0.10 0.10 0.10

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

out 15 nov 15 dez 15 jan 16 fev 16 mar 16 abr 16 mai 16 jun 16 jul 16 ago 16 set 16 out 16 nov 16

vvdsvdvsdy

IBERSOL Geral (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: ATPS II 55%; Bestinver 13%; Norges

Bank 4%; Magallanes 2%; Banco BPI

2.00%; Fidelity M&R 2.00%; Treas. Stock

10%;

EURm 9M15 9M16 YoY(%) 9M16e Dev (%)

Sales and Services 155,5 177,5 14,1% 171,1 3,7%

Other income 1,6 2,9 73,6% 1,7

Non-recurrent revenue 2,4 2,4

EBITDA (full) 23,6 32,1 35,6% 28,3 13,3%

EBITDA (adj.) 29,7 25,4% 25,9 14,5%

EBITDA (adj.) margin 15,0% 16,4% 15,0%

Financial Results -3,8 -0,1 n.m. -0,6 -88,3%

Net profit (full) 9,3 18,1 94,3% 15,0 20,5%

Net profit (adj.) 15,0 60,7% 11,9 25,8%

EPS (EUR) 0,52 1,00 0,83

Source: Company data and Caix aBI Equity Research

Note: adj. figures adjusted for one-offs

Page 27 of 37


OPAP

Greece/Travel & Leisure Analyser

TRAVEL & LEISURE

OPAP (Buy) 9M16 results comment – strong figures

Release of 3Q16 results today post market close

The facts: OPAP will release its 3Q16 results today post market close, while a

conference call is scheduled for tomorrow at 16:00 Athens time (14:00 UK time).

We look for revenues (GGR) of EUR 312m (+3.8% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 67.7m

(-22% y-o-y) and net profits of EUR 32.9m (-33% y-o-y). Excluding the

incremental 5% tax on legacy games (increase from 30% to 35% effective

January 1st 2016), 3Q16e EBITDA would have shaped at EUR 83m (-4% y-o-y)

and net earnings at EUR 44m (-11% y-o-y). For the 9-month period of 2016, we

forecast revenues of EUR 991m (-0.7% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 229m (-16% y-o-

y) and net profits of EUR 119m (-25% y-o-y).

The market (median estimates, 6 analysts) expects GGR of EUR 312m (+3.8% y-

o-y), EBITDA of EUR 67m (-23% y-o-y) and net profits of EUR 34.7m (-29% y-o-y)

in 3Q16.

Our Analysis: We look for increased gross gaming revenues (GGR) in 3Q16

after 4 consecutive quarters of decline attributed to: a) the favourable base effect

(the imposition of capital controls in late June 2015 had a detrimental effect on

OPAP’s games thereafter), b) the positive impact of ‘KINO Bonus’ option

launched in 4Q15 on the performance of the game and c) the small contribution

of Euro 2016 on Stihima’s turnover (the tournament ended on July 10). Per

category, GGR from numerical games are seen up 2% y-o-y to EUR 183m, driven

by an estimated 10% y-o-y increase in KINO. Betting GGR is seen growing by 3%

y-o-y to EUR 98m in 3Q reflecting easy comps, as well as the contribution of Euro

2016 and horse race betting. Regarding Hellenic Lotteries (scratch tickets,

passive lotteries), we expect a 9% y-o-y GGR growth in 3Q16. Recall that scratch

tickets had been heavily hit by capital controls. GGR tax & other levies are seen

shaping at EUR 104m (+17% y-o-y) in 3Q16, reflecting the increase of GGR tax

on legacy games to 35% from 30% as from January 1st 2016, while we expect a

4% y-o-y increase in agents’ commissions on higher GGR. That said, we forecast

net gaming revenue (NGR) of EUR 129m, down by 5.4% y-o-y in 3Q16. NGR

would have shaped at EUR 145m (+6.5% y-o-y) in 3Q16.

OPAP 9M16 results preview

EUR m 9M15a 9M16e IBG % YoY

Revenues (GGR) 998 991 -0.7%

EBITDA 273 229 -16.2%

Margin 27.4% 23.1%

Net earnings 159 119 -25.3%

Source: The Company, IBG

Conclusion & Action: On the whole, OPAP’s top line is expected to show some

improvement in 3Q due to easy comps, while the increase in GGR taxation and

operating expenses will take their toll on the earnings side. We view that the

market will pay more attention in the conference call on management’s comments

for the VLTs project rather than 3Q16 results. We remain positive on the stock.

Analyst(s):

Dimitris Birbos, Investment Bank of Greece

[email protected]

+30 210 81 73 392

Buy

8.78


12.50



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg OPAr.AT/OPAP GA



Free float 62%









Sales (m) 1,400 1,367 1,535

EBITDA (m) 377 311 339

EBITDA margin 26.9% 22.8% 22.1%

EBIT (m) 303 252 250

EBIT margin 21.6% 18.4% 16.3%


ROCE 19.7% 16.7% 17.1%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (155) (6) (26)

Net Debt/Equity -0.1 0.0 0.0

Debt/EBITDA -0.4 0.0 -0.1


EV/Sales 1.8 2.1 1.8

EV/EBITDA 6.6 9.1 8.3

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.6 9.1 8.3

EV/EBIT 8.2 11.2 11.2

P/E (adj.) 11.9 17.3 17.9

P/BV 2.2 2.8 2.8

OpFCF yield 6.2% 6.0% 6.9%


EPS (adj.) 0.68 0.51 0.49

BVPS 3.64 3.18 3.13

DPS 0.97 0.50 0.55

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0


vvdsvdvsdy

OPAP Stoxx Travel & Leisure (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Emma Delta 33%; Baupost 5%;

Page 28 of 37


Trigano

France/Travel & Leisure Analyser

TRAVEL & LEISURE

Trigano (Buy) Release of 3Q16 results today post market close

Excellent 2016 results; very promising prospects

The facts: 2016 EBIT: +58% to EUR99.3m (EUR97.7m CM-CIC; EUR97.8m

consensus) vs EUR62.9m. Underlying EBIT came to EUR100.1m vs EUR64.1m.

Attributable net income stood at EUR99.3m (EUR81m CM-CIC; EUR83.7m

consensus). Surplus net cash: EUR58m (EUR37m CM-CIC) vs EUR38m. No

2017 guidance. Management stressed that growth in leisure vehicles will be

double-digit and that results will post another significant increase.

Our analysis: With >24% of the European motorhome market (CC), Trigano has

won market share and has just inched ahead of its German competitor Hymer.

The good management of general expenses drove the EBIT margin up to 7.6% vs

6%. Usage of all the deficits carried forward in Italy and new tax regulations in this

country on affiliated companies, enabled corporate tax to be even lower than

expected. There are still over EUR80m of deficits carried forward in Germany.

In 2017, Trigano will benefit from: 1) the ongoing recovery in CC due to the

success of the fairs with the arrival of new entrants and the end of the delay in

buying new CCs; 2) the gradual roll out in Europe of the 20 Trigano CC brands

which will no longer be restricted to their historical region; 3) the reconstitution of

dealers’ inventories; and 4) a shortage of new CCs (excluding Trigano,

manufacturers have only slightly increased their production capacity) and recent

second-hand CCs. 2016 capex of EUR28.6m (one of the highest in the group’s

history) will jump to EUR35m (of which EUR20m in buildings). The production

capacity for CC will be raised by 10,000 units to 34,000 (+42%!).

Conclusion & Action: At present we are limiting 2017 revenue growth to +15%

due to the difficulty of suppliers to follow this pace of growth (FIAT chassis

saturated, FIAT is launching a new line of 20,000 units). Trigano has already sold

all its 2017 production. We are expecting an increase of +24.3% in EBIT (EBIT

margin of 8.2%).

Analyst(s):

Francis Prêtre, CM - CIC Market Solutions

[email protected]

+33 4 78 92 02 30

Buy

65.40


69.20



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg TRIA.PA/TRI FP



Free float 45%









Sales (m) 1,076 1,317 1,516

EBITDA (m) 75 111 138


EBIT (m) 63 98 124

EBIT margin 5.8% 7.4% 8.2%


ROCE 15.3% 18.2% 19.4%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (40) (37) (46)

Net Debt/Equity -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Debt/EBITDA -0.5 -0.3 -0.3


EV/Sales 0.6 0.7 0.8

EV/EBITDA 9.1 8.7 8.7

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 9.0 8.7 8.7

EV/EBIT 10.8 9.9 9.7

P/E (adj.) 12.1 12.4 12.6

P/BV 1.7 2.1 2.2

OpFCF yield 5.8% 1.1% 1.9%


EPS (adj.) 3.11 4.22 5.21

BVPS 21.78 25.28 29.65

DPS 0.70 0.80 0.90

40

45

50

55

60

65

70


vvdsvdvsdy

TRIGANO CAC Small & Mid 190 (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Fran¿ois Feuillet 53%; Trigano 1.90%;

Salari¿s 0.10%;

Page 29 of 37


Enagàs

Spain/Utilities Analyser

UTILITIES

Enagàs (Buy) Excellent 2016 results; very promising prospects

Dividend Announcement

The facts: The Board of Directors of Enagás has agreed to distribute an interim

dividend payment against 2016 results of EUR 0.556/share. Payment will be

done on the December 22, 2016.

Our analysis: Good news on the stock after the announcement of its new

dividend policy supported in an annual increase c. 5% instead of in maintaining a

certain pay-out ratio. In this regard for 2016, a total DPS of EUR 1.39/share is

expected (+5.3% vs. previous year), implying an estimated pay out of 79% and

div. yield of 6% at current prices. The interim payment announced represents c.

40% of the total annual payment and is +5.3% above last year’s interim

payment.

Conclusion & Action: At current market prices and with a relevant upside

potential > 35% we reiterate our positive recommendation on the stock.

After the falls of last month (-11% vs. -5.3% of the Spanish market and linked

to the expectations of interest hikes in the USA), the stock trades at very

attractive adjusted ratios (by international dividends): EV/EBITDA adj. 9.7x y

9.5x for 2016-17, offering OpCF yield c. 9% (post Quintero’s integration in

2017) and div. yield c. 6%. In June 2015 when the American bond traded

near current levels (2.35%) this Spanish stock traded at EV/EBITDA c. 11x.

At future scenario of higher rates has a very limited negative impact in

Enagas as nearly 80% of its gross debt is at fixed rates (average current cost

of 2.4%), while its revenues are linked to the Spanish 10Y bond +50 bps of

spread and currently it is fixed until 2020 at 5.09%

Two additional bounties: 1) Attractive international dividend portfolio which in

2015 reached EUR 49m (12% net profit) and by 2020e EUR 120m could be

surpassed (24% net profit); 2) consolidation change of Quintero LNG plant in

Chile contributing to Enagás by 2017 with approx. $200m revenues and

EBITDA $160m (c. 14% total group), and net profit of $25-40m previous to a

capacity increase expected in 2021. This asset receives a remuneration of c.

11.3% the investments and has a pass through in all opex incurred.

Analyst(s):

Sonia Ruiz De Garibay, GVC Gaesco Beka

[email protected]

+34 91 436 7841

Buy

23.24


32.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ENAG.MC/ENG SM



Free float 92%









Sales (m) 1,222 1,217 1,188

EBITDA (m) 901 878 864

EBITDA margin 73.7% 72.2% 72.8%

EBIT (m) 602 603 590

EBIT margin 49.3% 49.6% 49.7%


ROCE 8.1% 6.8% 6.6%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 4,237 4,887 4,827




EV/Sales 7.5 7.5 7.7

EV/EBITDA 10.2 10.4 10.5

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 10.2 10.4 10.5

EV/EBIT 15.2 15.2 15.4

P/E (adj.) 15.0 13.2 13.3

P/BV 2.6 2.2 2.1

OpFCF yield 3.9% -6.4% 6.3%


EPS (adj.) 1.73 1.76 1.75

BVPS 10.02 10.45 10.82

DPS 1.32 1.39 1.46

Page 30 of 37


Enel

Italy/Utilities Analyser

UTILITIES

Enel (Accumulate) Dividend Announcement Accumulate

3.65


4.50



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ENEI.MI/ENEL IM



Free float 72%









Sales (m) 75,658 75,865 74,906

EBITDA (m) 15,297 15,048 15,394

EBITDA margin 20.2% 19.8% 20.6%

EBIT (m) 7,685 9,468 9,866

EBIT margin 10.2% 12.5% 13.2%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) 2,196 3,148 3,455

ROCE 4.6% 5.6% 5.9%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 37,545 37,257 37,202




EV/Sales 1.0 1.0 0.9

EV/EBITDA 4.8 4.8 4.6

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 4.8 4.8 4.6

EV/EBIT 9.6 7.6 7.2

P/E (adj.) 16.7 11.8 10.7

P/BV 1.1 1.0 1.0

OpFCF yield 3.2% 6.7% 8.2%


EPS (adj.) 0.23 0.31 0.34

BVPS 3.44 3.50 3.84

DPS 0.16 0.18 0.21

Creating re-leverage options

The facts: Enel, through its US-based renewables subsidiary Enel Green Power

North America (EGPNA), has agreed to sell a 1% stake in EGPNA Renewable

Energy Partners (EGPNA REP) to GE Energy Financial Services, at a price to be

fixed at a later stage.

Our analysis: following the transaction, EGPNA will reduce its stake in EGPNA

REP to 50% from the current 51% and GE Energy Financial Services will

increase its stake to 50% from its current 49%. The two companies also intend to

revise their partnership LLC (Limited Liability Company) agreement, converting

EGPNA REP into an equally owned joint venture.

The transaction, which is subject to all required regulatory approvals, is expected

to be closed in December 2016, at which time funding will occur.

The new rules of corporate governance in the revised partnership LLC agreement

provide that EGPNA will continue to manage EGPNA REP assets. Upon

completion of the transaction, Enel will deconsolidate EGPNA REP’s debt

(roughly USD 500m), EBITDA (it was EUR 352m in 2015) and capacity.

The partnership in EGPNA REP was launched in March 2015 as a mechanism to

actively manage the renewables portfolio in North America. Currently EGPNA

REP’s assets include 46 wind, geothermal, hydropower and solar plants with

around 1,200MW of installed capacity.

Conclusion & Action: this sale ought to allow Enel to create room for a re-

leverage, considering its relatively undemanding financial structure (Enel has a

debt/EBITDA ratio of about 2.5x vs. a sector average of nearly 3.2x). This

potential re-leverage may translate in an increase in the dividend policy, in a

buyback or in an acceleration in the investment programme in the renewables

field. We expect more details from today’s presentation on the new business plan.

We reiterate our positive stance on the stock.

3.30

3.40

3.50

3.60

3.70

3.80

3.90

4.00

4.10

4.20


vvdsvdvsdy

ENEL Stoxx Utilities (Rebased)Source: Factset Shareholders: Italian governement - Ministry of

Economy and Finance 26%; People's

Bank of China 2%; Analyst(s):

Dario Michi, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4237

Page 31 of 37


Enel

Italy/Utilities Analyser

UTILITIES

Enel (Accumulate) Creating re-leverage options

2017-2019 business plan

The facts: Enel has just published a press release with the main goals included

in the 2017-2019 business plan.

Our analysis: the main goals are:

digitisation: EUR 4.7bn investment to digitise Enel’s asset base, operations

and processes and enhance connectivity; targeting EUR 1.6bn cumulative

incremental EBITDA contribution between 2017 and 2019;

customer focus: emphasis on enhancing customer operations to protect

and grow Enel’s most important asset, its portfolio of over 60 million end-

users; targeting EUR 3bn EBITDA contribution in 2019;

operational efficiency: targeting savings of EUR 1bn in 2019 vs 2016, a

EUR 500m increase on the previous plan, mainly from opex reduction, driven

by digitisation;

industrial growth: strong focus on networks and renewables. Adding a less

capital intensive “Build, Sell and Operate” model (BSO) in renewables;

group simplification: streamlining structure at all countries’ level, in

particular across Latin America and in Renewables;

active portfolio management: increasing asset rotation to EUR 8bn from

EUR 6bn, with a rolling three-year target. Share buyback option for up to

EUR 2bn to be submitted to 2017 Enel’s AGM;

shareholder remuneration: dividend pay-out increased to 65% on 2017

group net ordinary income (from 60%) and 70% on 2018 and 2019 group net

ordinary income (from 65%). Minimum dividend of EUR 0.21 per share on

2017 results (yield of about 5.8% at the current market prices).

Conclusion & Action: we believe Enel provided sound and achievable targets,

increasing almost all the goals included in the previous business plan. This is a

further confirmation of the management efforts to tackle a continuous difficult

macroeconomic environment. Additional details after today’s presentation. We

reiterate our positive stance on the stock and we expect a positive market

reaction.

2017-2019 financial targets:

Analyst(s):

Dario Michi, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4237

Accumulate

3.65


4.50



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ENEI.MI/ENEL IM



Free float 72%









Sales (m) 75,658 75,865 74,906

EBITDA (m) 15,297 15,048 15,394

EBITDA margin 20.2% 19.8% 20.6%

EBIT (m) 7,685 9,468 9,866

EBIT margin 10.2% 12.5% 13.2%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) 2,196 3,148 3,455

ROCE 4.6% 5.6% 5.9%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 37,545 37,257 37,202




EV/Sales 1.0 1.0 0.9

EV/EBITDA 4.8 4.8 4.6

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 4.8 4.8 4.6

EV/EBIT 9.6 7.6 7.2

P/E (adj.) 16.7 11.8 10.7

P/BV 1.1 1.0 1.0

OpFCF yield 3.2% 6.7% 8.2%


EPS (adj.) 0.23 0.31 0.34

BVPS 3.44 3.50 3.84

DPS 0.16 0.18 0.21

3.30

3.40

3.50

3.60

3.70

3.80

3.90

4.00

4.10

4.20


vvdsvdvsdy

ENEL Stoxx Utilities (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Italian governement - Ministry of

Economy and Finance 26%; People's

Bank of China 2%;

Page 32 of 37


European Coverage of the Members of ESN

A ero space & D efense M em(*) Bcp CBI Kemira OPG Corbion NIBC

Airbus Group CIC Bnp Paribas CIC Linde EQB Danone CIC

Dassault Aviation CIC Bper BAK Tikkurila OPG Ebro Foods GVC

Latecoere CIC Bpi CBIElectro nic & Electrical

EquipmentM em(*) Enervit BAK

Leonardo BAK Caixabank GVC Alstom CIC Fleury M ichon CIC

Lisi CIC Commerzbank EQB Areva CIC Forfarmers NIBC

M tu EQB Credem BAK Euromicron Ag EQB Heineken NIBC

Ohb Se EQB Credit Agrico le Sa CIC Kontron EQB Hkscan OPG

Safran CIC Creval BAK Legrand CIC La Doria BAK

Thales CIC Deutsche Bank EQB Neways Electronics NIBC Lanson-Bcc CIC

Zodiac Aerospace CIC Deutsche Pfandbriefbank EQB Nexans CIC Laurent Perrier CIC

A irlines M em(*) Eurobank IBG Pkc Group OPG Ldc CIC

Air France Klm CIC Ing Group NIBC Rexel CIC Naturex CIC

Finnair OPG Intesa Sanpaolo BAK Schneider Electric Se CIC Olvi OPG

Lufthansa EQB M ediobanca BAK Vaisala OPG Parmalat BAK

A uto mo biles & P arts M em(*) M erkur Bank EQB Viscom EQB Pernod Ricard CIC

Bittium Corporation OPG National Bank Of Greece IBG F inancial Services M em(*) Raisio OPG

Bmw EQB Natixis CIC Anima BAK Refresco Group NIBC

Brembo BAK Nordea OPG Athex Group IBG Remy Cointreau CIC

Continental EQB Piraeus Bank IBG Azimut BAK Vidrala GVC

Daimler Ag EQB Poste Italiane BAK Banca Generali BAK Vilmorin CIC

Elringklinger EQB Societe Generale CIC Banca Ifis BAK Viscofan GVC

Faurecia CIC Ubi Banca BAK Banca Sistema BAK Vranken Pommery M onopole CIC

Ferrari BAK Unicredit BAK Bb Biotech EQB Wessanen NIBC

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles BAK B asic R eso urces M em(*) Binckbank NIBC F o o d & D rug R etailers M em(*)

Landi Renzo BAK Acerinox GVC Bolsas Y M ercados Espanoles Sa GVC Ahold NIBC

Leoni EQB Altri CBI Capman OPG Carrefour CIC

M ichelin CIC Arcelormittal GVC Christian Dior CIC Casino Guichard-Perrachon CIC

Nokian Tyres OPG Corticeira Amorim CBI Cir BAK Dia GVC

Norma Group EQB Ence GVC Comdirect EQB Jeronimo M artins CBI

Piaggio BAK Europac GVC Corp. Financiera Alba GVC Kesko OPG

Plastic Omnium CIC M etka IBG Deutsche Boerse EQB M arr BAK

Sogefi BAK M etsä Board OPG Deutsche Forfait EQB M etro CIC

Stern Groep NIBC M ytilineos IBG Eq OPG Sligro NIBC

Valeo CIC Outokumpu OPG Euronext CIC Sonae CBI

Volkswagen EQB Semapa CBI Ferratum EQB General Industria ls M em(*)

B anks M em(*) Ssab OPG Finecobank BAK 2G Energy EQB

Aareal Bank EQB Stora Enso OPG Grenke EQB Aalberts NIBC

Abn Amro Group Nv NIBC Surteco EQB Hypoport Ag EQB Accell Group NIBC

Aktia OPG The Navigator Company CBI M lp EQB Ahlstrom OPG

Alpha Bank IBG Tubacex GVC Ovb Holding Ag EQB Arcadis NIBC

Banca Carige BAK Upm-Kymmene OPG Patrizia Ag EQB Aspo OPG

Banca M ps BAK B io techno lo gy M em(*) Rallye CIC Huhtamäki OPG

Banco Popolare BAK 4Sc EQB Unipol Gruppo Finanziario BAK Kendrion NIBC

Banco Popular GVC Cytotools Ag EQB F o o d & B everage M em(*) Nedap NIBC

Banco Sabadell GVC Epigenomics Ag EQB Acomo NIBC Pöyry OPG

Banco Santander GVC Wilex EQB Atria OPG Prelios BAK

Bankia GVC C hemicals M em(*) Bonduelle CIC Rubis CIC

Bankinter GVC Air Liquide CIC Campari BAK Saf-Holland EQB

Bbva GVC Holland Colours NIBC Coca Cola Hbc Ag IBG Serge Ferrari Group CIC

Page 33 of 37


Siegfried Holding Ag EQB H o useho ld Go o ds M em(*) Axa CIC Thermador Groupe CIC

Tkh Group NIBC Bic CIC Banca M edio lanum BAK Titan Cement IBG

Wendel CIC De Longhi BAK Catto lica Assicurazioni BAK Trevi BAK

General R etailers M em(*) Fila BAK Delta Lloyd NIBC Uponor OPG

Banzai BAK Osram Licht Ag EQB Generali BAK Vicat CIC

Beter Bed Holding NIBC Seb Sa CIC Hannover Re EQB Vinci CIC

Elumeo Se EQB Zumtobel Group Ag EQB M apfre Sa GVC Yit OPG

Fielmann EQB Industria l Engineering M em(*) M unich Re EQB M edia M em(*)

Folli Fo llie Group IBG Accsys Technologies NIBC Nn Group Nv NIBC Ad Pepper EQB

Fourlis Holdings IBG Aixtron EQB Sampo OPG Alma M edia OPG

Groupe Fnac Sa CIC Ansaldo Sts BAK Talanx Group EQB Atresmedia GVC

Inditex GVC Biesse BAK Unipolsai BAK Axel Springer EQB

Jumbo IBG Cargotec Corp OPGM aterials, C o nstruct io n &

InfrastructureM em(*) Brill NIBC

M acintosh NIBC Cnh Industrial BAK Abertis GVC Cofina CBI

Rapala OPG Danieli BAK Acs GVC Cts Eventim EQB

Stockmann OPG Datalogic BAK Aena GVC Editoriale L'Espresso BAK

Yoox Net-A-Porter BAK Deutz Ag EQB Aeroports De Paris CIC Gl Events CIC

H ealthcare M em(*) Dmg M ori Seiki Ag EQB Astaldi BAK Havas CIC

Amplifon BAK Duro Felguera GVC Atlantia BAK Impresa CBI

Bayer EQB Emak BAK Bilfinger Se EQB Ipsos CIC

Biotest EQB Exel Composites OPG Boskalis Westminster NIBC Jcdecaux CIC

Diasorin BAK Gesco EQB Buzzi Unicem BAK Lagardere CIC

Fresenius EQB Ima BAK Caverion OPG M 6-M etropole Television CIC

Fresenius M edical Care EQB Interpump BAK Cramo OPG M ediaset BAK

Gerresheimer Ag EQB Kone OPG Eiffage CIC M ediaset Espana GVC

Korian CIC Konecranes OPG Ellaktor IBG Notorious Pictures BAK

M erck EQB Kuka EQB Eltel OPG Nrj Group CIC

Orio la-Kd OPG M anz Ag EQB Ezentis GVC Publicis CIC

Orion OPG M ax Automation Ag EQB Fcc GVC Rcs M ediagroup BAK

Orpea CIC M etso OPG Ferrovial GVC Relx NIBC

Pihlajalinna OPG Outotec OPG Fraport EQB Rtl Group EQB

Recordati BAK Pfeiffer Vacuum EQB Heidelberg Cement Ag CIC Sanoma OPG

Rhoen-Klinikum EQB Ponsse OPG Heijmans NIBC Solocal Group CIC

H o tels, T ravel & T o urism M em(*) Prima Industrie BAK Hochtief EQB Spir Communication CIC

Accor CIC Prysmian BAK Imerys CIC Syzygy Ag EQB

Autogrill BAK Smt Scharf Ag EQB Italcementi BAK Telegraaf M edia Groep NIBC

Beneteau CIC Technotrans EQB Lafargeholcim CIC Teleperformance CIC

Elior CIC Valmet OPG Lehto OPG Tf1 CIC

Europcar CIC Wärtsilä OPG Lemminkäinen OPG Ubisoft CIC

I Grandi Viaggi BAK Zardoya Otis GVC M aire Tecnimont BAK Vivendi CIC

Iberso l CBI Industria l T ranspo rtat io n M em(*) M ota Engil CBI Wolters Kluwer NIBC

Intralo t IBG Bollore CIC Obrascon Huarte Lain GVC Oil & Gas P ro ducers M em(*)

Kotipizza OPG Caf GVC Ramirent OPG Eni BAK

M elia Hotels International GVC Ctt CBI Royal Bam Group NIBC Galp Energia CBI

Nh Hotel Group GVC Deutsche Post EQB Sacyr GVC Gas Plus BAK

Opap IBG Hhla EQB Saint Gobain CIC Hellenic Petro leum IBG

Snowworld NIBC Logwin EQB Salini Impregilo BAK M aurel Et Prom CIC

Sodexo CIC Insurance M em(*) Sias BAK M otor Oil IBG

Sonae Capital CBI Aegon NIBC Sonae Industria CBI Neste Corporation OPG

Trigano CIC Allianz EQB Srv OPG Petrobras CBI

Page 34 of 37


Qgep CBI Wcm Ag EQB Enav BAK Falck Renewables BAK

Repsol GVC R enewable Energy M em(*) Fiera M ilano BAK Fortum OPG

Total CIC Daldrup & Soehne EQB Lassila & Tikanoja OPG Gas Natural Fenosa GVC

Oil Services M em(*) Gamesa GVC Openjobmetis BAK Hera BAK

Bourbon CIC So ftware & C o mputer Services M em(*)T echno lo gy H ardware &

EquipmentM em(*)Iberdro la GVC

Cgg CIC Affecto OPG Asm International NIBC Iren BAK

Fugro NIBC Akka Technologies CIC Asml NIBC Public Power Corp IBG

Saipem BAK Alten CIC Besi NIBC Red Electrica De Espana GVC

Sbm Offshore NIBC Altran CIC Elmos Semiconductor EQB Ren CBI

Technip CIC Amadeus GVC Ericsson OPG Snam BAK

Tecnicas Reunidas GVC Assystem CIC Gemalto CIC Terna BAK

Tenaris BAK Atos CIC Gigaset EQB

Vallourec CIC Basware OPG Ingenico CIC

Vopak NIBC Cenit EQB Nokia OPG

P erso nal Go o ds M em(*) Comptel OPG Roodmicrotec NIBC

Adidas EQB Ctac NIBC Slm Solutions EQB

Adler M odemaerkte EQB Digia OPG Stmicroelectronics BAK

Amer Sports OPG Docdata NIBC Suess M icrotec EQB

Basic Net BAK Econocom CIC Teleste OPG

Cie Fin. Richemont CIC Ekinops CIC T eleco mmunicat io ns M em(*)

Geox BAK Esi Group CIC Acotel BAK

Gerry Weber EQB Exprivia BAK Deutsche Telekom EQB

Hermes Intl. CIC F-Secure OPG Drillisch EQB

Hugo Boss EQB Gft Technologies EQB Elisa OPG

Interparfums CIC Ict Group NIBC Euskaltel GVC

Kering CIC Indra Sistemas GVC Freenet EQB

L'Oreal CIC Nemetschek Se EQB Kpn Telecom NIBC

Luxottica BAK Neurones CIC M asmovil GVC

Lvmh CIC Nexus Ag EQB Nos CBI

M arimekko OPG Novabase CBI Oi CBI

M oncler BAK Ordina NIBC Ote IBG

Puma EQB Psi EQB Tele Columbus EQB

Safilo BAK Reply BAK Telecom Italia BAK

Salvatore Ferragamo BAK Rib Software EQB Telefonica GVC

Sarantis IBG Seven Principles Ag EQB Telia OPG

Technogym BAK Software Ag EQB Tiscali BAK

Tod'S BAK Sopra Steria Group CIC United Internet EQB

R eal Estate M em(*) Tie Kinetix NIBC Vodafone BAK

Adler Real Estate EQB Tieto OPG Utilit ies M em(*)

Beni Stabili BAK Tomtom NIBC A2A BAK

Citycon OPG Visiativ CIC Acciona GVC

Deutsche Euroshop EQB Wincor Nixdorf EQB Acea BAK

Grand City Properties EQB Suppo rt Services M em(*) Albioma CIC

Hispania Activos Inmobiliarios GVC Asiakastieto Group OPG Direct Energie CIC

Igd BAK Batenburg NIBC Edp CBI

Lar España GVC Bureau Veritas S.A. CIC Edp Renováveis CBI

Realia GVC Cellnex Telecom GVC Enagas GVC

Sponda OPG Dpa NIBC Endesa GVC

Technopolis OPG Edenred CIC Enel BAK

Vib Vermoegen EQB Ei Towers BAK Eydap IBG

LEGEND: BAK: Banca Akros; CIC: CM CIC Market Solutions; CBI: Caixa-Banca de Investimento; GVC: GVC Gaesco Beksa, SV, SA; EQB: Equinet bank; IBG: Investment Bank of

Greece, NIBC: NIBC Markets N.V: OPG: OP Corporate Bank:; as of 1st September 2016

Page 35 of 37


List of ESN Analysts (**)

Ari Agopyan CIC +33 1 53 48 80 63 [email protected] Victoria Kruchevska (CFA,FRM) EQB +49 69 5 89 97 416 [email protected]

Artur Amaro CBI +351 213 89 6822 [email protected] Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq CIC +33 1 53 48 80 65 [email protected]

Helena Barbosa CBI +351 21 389 6831 [email protected] Konstantinos Manolopoulos IBG +30 210 817 3388 [email protected]

Javier Bernat GVC +34 91 436 7816 jav [email protected] Dario Michi BAK +39 02 4344 4237 [email protected]

Dimitris Birbos IBG +30 210 81 73 392 [email protected] Marietta Miemietz CFA EQB +49-69-58997-439 [email protected]

Agnès Blazy CIC +33 1 53 48 80 67 [email protected] José Mota Freitas, CFA CBI +351 22 607 09 31 [email protected]

Charles Edouard Boissy CIC +33 01 53 48 80 81 [email protected] Henri Parkkinen OPG +358 10 252 4409 [email protected]

Rafael Bonardell GVC +34 91 436 78 171 [email protected] Victor Peiro Pérez GVC +34 91 436 7812 [email protected]

Louise Boyer CIC +33 1 53 48 80 68 [email protected] Francis Prêtre CIC +33 4 78 92 02 30 [email protected]

Giada Cabrino, CIIA BAK +39 02 4344 4092 [email protected] Francesco Previtera BAK +39 02 4344 4033 francesco.prev [email protected]

Arnaud Cadart CIC +33 1 53 48 80 86 [email protected] Jari Raisanen OPG +358 10 252 4504 [email protected]

Niclas Catani OPG +358 10 252 8780 [email protected] Hannu Rauhala OPG +358 10 252 4392 [email protected]

Pierre Chedeville CIC +33 1 53 48 80 97 [email protected] Matias Rautionmaa OPG +358 10 252 4408 [email protected]

Emmanuel Chevalier CIC +33 1 53 48 80 72 [email protected] Eric Ravary CIC +33 1 53 48 80 71 [email protected]

David Consalvo CIC +33 1 53 48 80 64 [email protected] Iñigo Recio Pascual GVC +34 91 436 7814 [email protected]

Edwin de Jong NIBC +312 0 5508569 [email protected] Gerard Rijk NIBC + 31 (0)20 550 8572 [email protected]

Martijn den Drijver NIBC +312 0 5508636 [email protected] André Rodrigues CBI +351 21 389 68 39 [email protected]

Christian Devismes CIC +33 1 53 48 80 85 [email protected] Jean-Luc Romain CIC +33 1 53 48 80 66 [email protected]

Andrea Devita, CFA BAK +39 02 4344 4031 [email protected] Jochen Rothenbacher, CEFA EQB +49 69 58997 415 [email protected]

Sebastian Droste EQB +49 69 58 99 74 34 [email protected] Vassilis Roumantzis IBG +30 2108173394 [email protected]

Enrico Esposti, CIIA BAK +39 02 4344 4022 [email protected] Sonia Ruiz De Garibay GVC +34 91 436 7841 [email protected]

Rafael Fernández de Heredia GVC +34 91 436 78 08 [email protected] Antti Saari OPG +358 10 252 4359 [email protected]

Enrico Filippi, CEFA BAK +39 02 4344 4071 [email protected] Paola Saglietti BAK +39 02 4344 4287 [email protected]

Gabriele Gambarova BAK +39 02 43 444 289 [email protected] Francesco Sala BAK +39 02 4344 4240 [email protected]

Eduardo Garcia Arguelles GVC +34 914 367 810 [email protected] Holger Schmidt, CEFA EQB +49 69 58 99 74 32 [email protected]

Alexandre Gérard CIC +33 1 53 48 80 93 [email protected] Cengiz Sen EQB +4969 58997 435 [email protected]

Philipp Häßler, CFA EQB +49 69 58997 414 [email protected] Pekka Spolander OPG +358 10 252 4351 [email protected]

Simon Heilmann EQB +49 69 58 997 413 [email protected] Kimmo Stenvall OPG +358 10 252 4561 [email protected]

Dr. Knud Hinkel EQB + 49 69 58997 419 [email protected] Natalia Svyrou-Svyriadi IBG +30 210 81 73 384 [email protected]

Marcell Houben NIBC +31 20 550 8649 [email protected] Luigi Tramontana BAK +39 02 4344 4239 [email protected]

Carlos Jesus CBI +351 21 389 6812 [email protected] Johan van den Hooven NIBC +312 0 5508518 [email protected]

Mark Josefson EQB +4969-58997-437 [email protected] Kévin Woringer CIC +33 1 53 48 80 69 [email protected]

(**) excluding: strategists, macroeconomists, heads of research not covering specific stocks, credit analysts, technical analysts

Page 36 of 37


ESN Recommendation System The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the basis of

a total return, measured by the upside potential (including dividends and capital reimbursement)

over a 12 month time horizon.

The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories: Buy

(B), Accumulate (A), Neutral (N), Reduce (R) and Sell (S).

Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to rate the

stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below.

Meaning of each recommendation or rating:

Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 15% during the next 12 months time horizon

Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 5% to 15% during the next 12 months time horizon

Neutral: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to +5% during the next 12 months time horizon

Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to -15% during the next 12 months time horizon

Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -15% during the next 12 months time horizon

Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a change of analyst covering the stock or a capital operation (take-over bid, SPO, …) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer is or could be involved

Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer

Certain flexibility on the limits of total return bands is permitted especially during higher phases of volatility on the markets

ESN Ratings Breakdown

Date and time of production: 22nd November 2016 9 :10am CET First date and time of dissemination: 22nd November 2016 9 :12am CET

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www.bancaakros.it regulated by the CONSOB - Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa

www.caixabi.pt regulated by the CMVM - Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários

www.cmcicms.com regulated by the AMF - Autorité des marchés financiers

www.equinet-ag.de regulated by the BaFin - Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht

www.ibg.gr regulated by the HCMC - Hellenic Capital Market Commission

www.nibcmarkets.com regulated by the AFM - Autoriteit Financiële Markten

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C/ Marques de Villamagna 3

28001 Madrid

Spain

Phone: +34 91 436 7813

Investment Bank of Greece

32 Aigialeias Str & Paradissou,

151 25 Maroussi,

Greece

Tel: +30 210 81 73 383

Banca Akros S.p.A.

Viale Eginardo, 29

20149 MILANO

Italy

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Fax: +39 02 43 444 302

NIBC Markets N.V.

Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 162

P.O.Box 235

1000 AE Amsterdam

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Fax: +31 20 626 8064

CM - CIC Market Solutions

6, avenue de Provence

75441 Paris

Cedex 09

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Phone: +33 1 53 48 80 78

Fax: +33 1 53 48 82 25

equinet Bank AG

Gräfstraße 97

60487 Frankfurt am Main

Germany

Phone:+49 69 – 58997 – 212

Fax:+49 69 – 58997 – 299

OP Corporate Bank plc

P.O.Box 308

Teollisuuskatu 1, 00013 Helsinki

Finland

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Fax: +358 10 252 2703

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