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DBR - 061013 - CL
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5/26/2018 DBR - 061013 - CL
1/6
THE DAILY BIASTHE DAILY BIASTHE DAILY BIASTHE DAILY BIAS Monday June 10 - 2013
CRUDE OIL BIAS = Bullish
THE BULLS DIVIDING LINE: 96.78 Targets: 97.52 98.77
THE BEARS DIVIDING LINE: 95.28 Targets: 94.54 93.29
TODAY'S OBSERVATIONS: A test of 94.76 seems likely
Most likely upside target is 96.41 | Most likely downside target is 93.76
ATR: 206 ticks Volume:50 day avg. = 272k / 4 of 5 days this month
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High 96.39
Low 93.72
Close 96.03 97.03 Open POC
Range 2.67 96.73 Open VAH
R3 99.71 96.41 Open POC
R2 98.05 96.39 VAH
R1 97.04 96.05 POC
PP 95.38 94.73 VAL
S1 94.37 93.10 Open POC 96.78 Targets: 97.52 98.7
S2 92.71 92.48 Open VAL 95.28 Targets: 94.54 93.2
S3 91.70 91.45 Open VAL
High 96.39
Low 93.72 99.16 02/14/13
Close 96.05 97.03 05/20/13
Range 2.67 96.41 05/21/13
R3 100.73 93.10 06/04/13
R2 98.06 90.86 05/01/13
R1 97.05
PP 95.39 97.80 05/08/13
S1 94.38 96.99 05/20/13
S2 92.72 93.76 06/05/13
S3 90.05 93.33 06/04/13
High 96.39
Low 91.26 94.35 10 EMA
Close 96.03 94.35 20 EMA
R3 102.99 94.22 50 EMA
R2 99.69 94.19 100 EMA
R1 97.86 94.75 200 EMA
PP 94.56 93.91 50 SMA
S1 92.73 94.82 100 SMA
S2 89.43 94.10 200 SMA
S3 87.60
High 97.46 95.18 50 EMA
Low 90.40 101.23 200 EMA
Close 91.97 94.14 50 SMA
R3 103.21 99.70 200 SMA
R2 100.34
R1 96.15 97.46 HIgh
PP 93.28 91.26 Low
S1 89.09
S2 86.22 116.39 High
S3 82.03 81.50 Low
TradeOneHourADay.comSimple / Systematic / Stress-Free Trading
MonthlyPivots
Macro Range Fibs
Current Range Fibs
FT-S1 & Daily S1 Pivot & 50.0 Current & 20 Day EMA & 61.8 Daily
Key Economic News Events (EST)
No News Monday
WeeklyPivots
95.18 / 95.09
50 Week EMA & 61.8 Current
94.94 / 94.88 / 94.83 / 94.82
23.6 Daily & MP-S1 & 38.2 Macro & 100 Day SMA
Daily Moving Avgs
Weekly Moving Avgs 94.38 / 94.37 / 94.36 / 94.35 / 94.31
96.03
94.56 / 94.54 / 94.51
Open Gaps
Floor
TraderPivots
The Power PivotsThe Power PivotsThe Power PivotsThe Power Pivots
96.95 / 96.99 / 97.03 / 97.04 / 97.05
200.0 Daily & Open Gap & Open POC & Daily R1 Pivot & FT R1 Pivot
96.73 / 96.78
Open POC's
95.99 / 96.03 / 96.05
141.0 Daily & Settlement & POC
DailyPivo
ts
Crude OilCrude OilCrude OilCrude Oil 06/10/1306/10/1306/10/1306/10/13CL (N) - July 2013 ContractCL (N) - July 2013 ContractCL (N) - July 2013 ContractCL (N) - July 2013 Contract MondayMondayMondayMonday
MARKET PROFILE
The Daily Bias
Bullish A test of 94.76 seems likely
If we trade above:
If we trade below:
Open VAH & D-Line Up
Settlement
161.8 Daily & PSH/PWH & Open POC
200 Day EMA & VAL & 38.2 Daily
Weekly CP & DL-T1D & 50.0 Daily
94.75 / 94.73 / 94.70
78.6 Current & M-R1 & MP-R1
96.33 / 96.39 / 96.41
96.13 / 96.15 / 96.21
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A Glossary of Terms for
THE DAILY BIAS REPORT
WHAT IS THE DAILY BIAS?
TheDaily Biasrepresents our directional call for the next day of trading, including
the specific target area where the market is likely headed. In addition, we also include overall bullish and bearish dividing lines as well as two
additional bullish and bearish target levels. Once we cross Above or Below the
Dividing Lines, the market will likely head to the Target levels.
WHAT ARE PIVOTS?
Pivots - These numbers are derived from a numerical average of a particular
market's high, low and closing price. Pivot Points are calculated based upon the
Daily, Weekly & Monthly ranges as well as the Floor Trader session. Pivot Points are
used to predict market direction, as support & resistance levels, and as profit
targets.Daily Pivots - are based upon Electronic Trading Hours (ETH) High, Low &
Closing price. Crude Oil & Natural Gas ETH are from 6:00 PM thru 5:15 PM ET the
following day, representing a 23 hour and 15 minute session.Floor Trader Pivots- are based upon Regular Trading Hours(RTH) High, Low &
Closing price. Crude Oil & Natural Gas RTH are from 9:00 AM thru 2:30 PM ET each
day, representing a 5 hour and 30 minute session.
Weekly Pivots- are based upon the High, Low & Closing price from the opening ofelectronic trading on Sunday night thru the close of electronic trading the following
Friday. Weekly Pivots are always based upon the most recent completed week.
Monthly Pivots - are based upon the High, Low & Closing price of the opening
price on the first trading day of each month thru the closing price on the last
trading day of each month. Monthly Pivots are always based on the most recent
completed month.
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PP- is an acronym for the Pivot Point which is also known as the Central Pivot. This
is the central pivot that traders calculate for market trading. Above this are 3 to 5
resistance points and below are 3 to 5 support levels.R1, R2, R3- These are three resistance levels representing an area at which the
market may struggle to trade above. Because the market cannot move above this
level it is referred to as Resistance. Traders look for areas of Resistance in the
market to place Sell orders to go Short. They also use the Resistance area to placea Target for Long positions.
S1, S2, S3 - These are three support levels representing an area at which the
market may struggle to trade below. Because the market cannot move above this
level it is referred to as Support. Traders look for areas of Support in the market to
place Buy orders to go Long. They also use the Support area to place a Target
for Short positions.
WHAT IS MARKET PROFILE?Market Profile - an intra-day charting technique that seeks to evaluate market
value as it develops in a day time frame. Each day, the market will develop a range
for the day and a value area , which represents an equilibrium point where there
are an equal number of buyers and sellers. In this area, prices never stay
stagnant. They are constantly diverging, and Market Profile records this activity for
traders to interpret.
Value Area - The price range in which approximately 70% of the day's trades
occur.
POC - The Point of Control is where most of the trading activity took place and is
considered to be a fair value or fair market price for the trading day.
Value Area High (VAH) - The VAH is the highest price in the Value Area and is
often used and seen as an area of support or resistance by traders. Traders will
frequently use this area (with other methods and indicators) to enter and exit
trades due to the support/resistance nature of this area.
Value Area Low(VAL) - The VAL is the lowest price in the Value Area and is often
used and seen as an area of support or resistance by traders. Traders will
frequently use this area (with other methods and indicators) to enter and exit
trades due to the support/resistance nature of this area.
Open POC- An Open Point of Control refers to a POC that has not had a trade at
that price since the day that POC was formed. Open POC's are also referred to as a
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Naked POC's & Virgin POC's. These serve as strong magnets for the market to
pullback to.Open VAH- An Open Value Area High refers to a VAH that has not had a trade at
that price since the day that VAH was formed. These serve as strong magnets for
the market to pullback to, but not as strong as Open POC's.
Open VAL- An Open Value Area Low refers to a VAL that has not had a trade atthat price since the day that VAL was formed. These serve as strong magnets for
the market to pullback to, but not as strong as Open POC's.
WHAT ARE OPEN GAPS?
Open Gap - is a break on a price chart where no trading happened. The most
common definition for a gap is the area between the close of one daily price bar (or
candlestick) and the open of the subsequent one. Like Open POC's, Open Gaps are
strong magnet factors that are often closed in the next few sessions.
MOVING AVERAGES
Moving Averages - These are plotted on our charts using horizontal lines based
upon where each moving average price was at the closing bell of the most recent
session. As such, these moving averages are static (they don't move throughout
the day) as opposed to the more common moving average indicator lines that you
see plotted on charts that are dynamic (they move up and down with the price
action througout the current session).EMA - Exponential Moving Averages reduce the lag by applying more weight to
recent prices.SMA - A Simple Average is formed by computing the average price of a security
equally over a specific number of bars.Daily Moving Avgs- These fixed numbers are updated on our charts each evening
after the closing bell. During the next days session, we observe whether themarket is moving closer or farther away from these key levels of support and
resistance.Weekly Moving Avgs - These fixed numbers are updated after the closing bell
each Friday. We then observe whether the market is moving closer or farther away
the following week.
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WHAT ARE RANGE FIBS?
Current Range Fibs -Fibonacci (Fib) Range based upon the most observable high
and low off a Weekly chart.
Macro Range Fibs - Fibonacci (Fib) Range based upon the most observable highand low off a Monthly chart.
(For more info on Fibonacci numbers, see our Glossary of Trading Termsunder
Member Resources)
WHAT ARE THE POWER PIVOTS?
The Power Pivots are areas of confluence where two or more factors converge to
provide reinforced areas support and resistance. These factors can be any type of
pivot (Daily, Floor, Weekly, Monthly), moving averages, previous high and lows,
values areas, open gaps or Fibonacci retracements.The Power Pivots provide excellent targets as well as reversal points.
WHAT ARE KEY ECONOMIC NEWS EVENTS?
Key Economic News events occur almost every trading session. These are importanteconomic reports that can often times produce increased volatility and even
unpredictability into the markets. Experienced traders stand aside for at least 5
minutes before these reports are released and up to 5 minutes after.
ADDITIONAL ABBREVIATIONS
CP- Central Pivot
EMA - Exponential Moving Average
KR- Key Resistance
KS- Key Support
MP- Mid Pivot
PMH- Previous Month High
PML- Previous Month Low
PSH- Previous Session High
PSL- Previous Session Low
PWH- Previous Week High
PWL- Previous Week Low
SMA- Simple Moving Average