Dave Pursell [email protected] 713-333-2962 *Disclosures begin on page 43 2016 Crude Oil Outlook – “Strong, like Bull” September 2015

Dave [email protected]

713-333-2962

*Disclosures begin on page 43

2016 Crude Oil Outlook – “Strong, like Bull”September 2015

2

Re-affirm our $80+/bbl oil price in 2H16

□ US supply growth moderates in 2015 and declines in 2016

□ Global Demand: only needs to be OK…but currently better than OK!

OPEC

□ Wildcard

□ Current supply increasing from Saudi and Iraq

□ Iran remains uncertain

Long Term to 2025

□ Rest of non-OPEC?

□ Well Spacing / Inventory depth?

□ Terminal decline rates?

Crude Oil Market

3

But the NYMEX Futures Say…….!!!!

“I can hardly remember how I built my bankroll, but I can't stop thinking of how I lost it” Mike McDermott,

Rounders

Source: Bloomberg, TPH & Co.

-60%

-30%

0%

30%

60%

90%

120%

Jan-99

Jan-01

Jan-03

Jan-05

Jan-07

Jan-09

Jan-11

Jan-13

Jan-15NYM

EX S

trip

, Pre

dic

ted

-Ac

tual

, %

Strip Too High

(Strip Too Low)

4

Oil S/D Model

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

(2.5)

(2.0)

(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Supp

ly/D

eman

d (m

mbb

l/d)

Und

er/<

Ove

r> S

uppl

y (m

mbb

l/d)

Global Crude ProductionImplied Inventory Change Supply Demand

Undersupplied

Oversupplied

“Are you suggesting coconuts migrate?”Monty Python and the Holy Grail

Source: IEA, TPH & Co.

5

OECD Inventories

NAM Non-NAM


1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Million

Bar

rels

Max

Min

Norm

2014

2015

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600


Million

Bar

rels

Max

Min

2015

Norm2014

6

OECD Inventories


2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000


Mill

ion

Barr

els

2015

Max

Min

Norm

2014

7

US Rig Count Decline is Fast and Furious…

Source: RigData

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

U.S

. Lan

d Ri

g Co

unt

Week

Peak to Trough Rig Count:'08-'09 vs. Current2008-2009 Current

8

(61)

(45)

(32)(32)(32)

(27)

(24)(23)(21)

(16)(15)(13)(13)(13)(12)(12)(11)(11)

(9) (9) (9) (8) (7) (6)(4) (4) (4) (3)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

APA

CHK

CXO

OXY SD PXD

CLR

COP

MRO XE

CEO

GD

VN LIN

EQ

EP HES

OAS NFX

WLL AR BHP

LPI

NBL

EGN

SWN

SM STO

XOM

APC

CVX

RRC

Chan

ge in

Rig

Cou

ntChange in Rig Count by Operator Since Q4 Peak

Change in Rig Count by Operator Since Q4 Peak

Source: RigData, TPH & Co.

Note: Private Operators -523 rigs (-65%) since Q4 peak

9

US Oil Production Annual Growth

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e

mbo

pd

Oil ProductionAnnual Growth

Source: DrillingInfo, Company Filings, TPH Research

US production declines are coming

10

TPH Oil Supply Model

Source: DrillingInfo, Company Filings, TPH Research

Actuals Forecast 2020E vs.Oil (mbopd) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2013A

Permian 863 907 1,009 1,188 1,346 1,590 1,710 1,726 1,900 2,167 2,491 2,844 1,497 Eagle Ford 19 68 230 564 962 1,328 1,437 1,446 1,663 1,897 2,093 2,282 1,320 Bakken 247 342 541 813 1,025 1,225 1,309 1,257 1,337 1,455 1,575 1,673 648 Niobrara 53 60 75 100 152 230 273 300 370 453 548 654 503 SCOOP 3 5 6 8 14 22 30 53 86 118 145 167 153 MS Lime 45 48 55 73 93 109 112 105 115 133 150 167 74 GW, Tonk, Cle 54 71 105 121 122 123 109 92 85 82 81 82 (40) Sub-Total 1,284 1,501 2,023 2,867 3,715 4,627 4,982 4,980 5,556 6,305 7,084 7,870 4,155

Growth 217 521 844 849 911 355 (2) 576 749 779 786 NA

Other Texas 534 532 523 523 562 578 550 511 485 485 485 485 (76) FO Gulf 1,684 1,700 1,469 1,453 1,393 1,462 1,569 1,488 1,428 1,364 1,305 1,250 (142) California 589 569 554 561 570 580 568 528 528 528 528 528 (42) Alaska 646 600 562 526 515 510 474 441 419 398 378 359 (156) Other US 711 722 712 826 795 765 727 654 641 628 616 604 (191) Sub-Total 4,164 4,123 3,820 3,889 3,835 3,896 3,888 3,623 3,502 3,404 3,313 3,227 (608)

Growth (42) (303) 69 (54) 61 (8) (265) (120) (98) (92) (86) NA

TPH Forecast 5,448 5,624 5,842 6,755 7,550 8,522 8,869 8,603 9,058 9,709 10,397 11,097 3,547 Total Growth 176 218 913 795 973 347 (267) 456 651 688 700 NA

US production growth is required

in 2017+

11

Rig Assumptions by Basin

Source: TPH & Co.

Actuals Rigs Forecasted RigsBasin 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Permian Hz 22 50 95 149 193 295 220 274 352 444 540 626 Permian V 93 216 301 300 227 193 60 60 85 85 85 85 Eagle Ford 19 83 176 229 208 196 127 154 186 199 212 225 Bakken 50 117 174 202 183 182 90 100 132 145 158 171 MS Lime 13 25 39 78 93 100 35 35 53 61 69 77 Niobrara Hz 1 10 21 28 51 51 37 50 64 75 85 95 Niobrara V 12 17 21 15 5 1 - - - - - - GW, Tonk, Cle 20 71 106 101 93 89 30 33 36 40 45 50 SCOOP 14 21 19 24 32 52 43 49 59 66 73 80 Marcellus 41 99 131 108 90 83 60 75 86 103 107 110 Utica 0 0 3 15 29 36 33 37 41 46 49 52 Haynesville 146 195 139 55 38 38 30 34 38 38 38 38 Cana Woodford 11 25 47 31 19 12 20 25 25 25 25 25 Barnett 74 76 59 35 25 16 3 5 7 7 7 7 Pinedale 27 22 19 14 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 Piceance 31 33 30 16 13 11 7 3 5 7 7 7 Fayetteville 40 38 31 21 15 12 6 8 8 8 8 8

Oil Hz 965 582 695 882 1,030 1,182 1,324 Growth (383) 113 187 148 152 142

Oil V 194 60 60 85 85 85 85 Growth (134) - 25 - - -

Total Oil 1,159 642 755 967 1,115 1,267 1,409 Growth (517) 113 212 148 152 142

Total Gas 220 170 198 221 244 252 257 Growth (50) 28 23 24 7 5

Total Unmodeled 649 315 490 590 690 790 890 Growth (335) 175 100 100 100 100

Total 2,029 1,127 1,443 1,777 2,049 2,308 2,556 Growth (902) 316 334 272 259 247 Growth (%) -44% 28% 23% 15% 13% 11%

12

US Oil Production – Declines are Happening

Less volatile onshore oil production declined in April, May and June’15…an average of 83kbopd per month

0

5

10

Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16

US

Oil

Prod

uctio

n, m

illio

n ba

rrel

s pe

r day

Total US Oil Production

Source: EIA, TPH & Co.

13

US Oil Production – Declines are Happening

Less volatile onshore oil production declined in April, May and June’15…an average of 83kbopd per month

0

5

10

Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16

US

Oil

Prod

uctio

n, m

illio

n ba

rrel

s pe

r day


Onshore Oil Production



14

US Oil Production – Forecast Thru 2016

The recent decline rate results in almost 850kbopd y/y decline.

0

3

6

9

Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18

US

Oil

Prod

uctio

n, m

illio

n ba

rrel

s pe

r day

Onshore


15



0

3

6

9


US

Oil

Prod

uctio

n, m

illio

n ba

rrel

s pe

r day

Onshore

35kbopd monthly decline


16

0

3

6

9


US

Oil

Prod

uctio

n, m

illio

n ba

rrel

s pe

r day

Onshore






17

0

3

6

9


US

Oil

Prod

uctio

n, m

illio

n ba

rrel

s pe

r day

Onshore




35 kbopd monthly declineOnshore Annual Change

mmbopd kbopd2014 6.8 2015 7.3 578 2016 6.9 (417)

April'15 less Dec'16 946


75 kbopd monthly declineOnshore Annual Change

mmbopd kbopd2014 6.8 2015 7.3 508 2016 6.4 (847)

April'15 less Dec'16 1,666


18

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

Oil-

dire

cted

Rig

Cou

nt

kbbl

s/da

yMonthly US Oil Production

Weekly US Oil Production (4-wk Trailing Avg)

Oil-directed Rig Count

US Crude Production and Oil-Directed Rig Count

Source: BHI, EIA, TPH & Co.

Recent weekly/monthly data suggests growth may be

slowing

19

Non-OPEC Oil Production Growth – Ain’t Happening

25

30

35

40

45

50

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e

Non

-OPE

C (e

x-U.S

.) S

upply

, mm

bpd

U.S

. Sup

ply,

mm

bpd

United States

Non-US, Non-OPEC


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E

Oil

Prod

uctio

n G

row

th (

Inde

xed

to 1

.0)

Oil Production Growth by Country/RegionOPEC (ex. Saudi) OECD (ex. U.S.) Non-OECD (ex. Russia) Saudi Arabia United States Russia

20

US Caused This Problem… U.S. Will Fix It

U.S. is offender for global supply growth and needs to throttle back production


21

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Dem

and,

mm

bpd

OECD Demand

Non-OECD Demand

Demand- A Tale of 2 Cities


22

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

Global Demand – Wait What?


Asia Demand

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Tota

l D

eman

d (M

MB

PD)

Asian Total Products Demand

China Other Asia

“That's mathematics, son! You can argue with me, but you can't argue with figures!” Foghorn Leghorn

Source: Infield, TPH & Co.

Q3'15 Q3'14 Q3'15 vs. Q3'15 Q3'14 Q3'15 vs.

Europe (Brent) 21-Aug-15 14-Aug-15 21-Aug-14 QTD avg. QTD avg. Q3'14 Asia (Dubai) 21-Aug-15 14-Aug-15 21-Aug-14 QTD avg. QTD avg. Q3'14

NWE 95 Gasoline $19.40 $20.81 $9.66 $23.08 $10.89 111.9% Singapore 92 Gasoline $14.12 $16.23 $8.38 $15.86 $13.69 15.9%

NWE Gasoil $12.43 $11.18 $12.27 $10.57 $10.18 3.8% Singapore Gasoil $9.77 $11.62 $15.73 $10.37 $13.52 -23.3%

*Crude components in parentheses *Crack spread data based on 5-day rolling average prices

NWE 95 Gasoline Singapore 92 Gasoline

NWE Gasoil Singapore Gasoil

Europe and Asia Crack Spreads

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

J F M A M J J A S O N D

$/b

bl

5-Yr Range 5-Yr Avg 2014 2015

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25


$/b

bl


$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30


$/b

bl


$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25


$/b

bl


Europe and Asia Crack Spreads

“I'm just here for the gasoline.”Max…Mad Max

Source: Bloomberg, TPH & Co.

25

OPEC Production History

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

Oct-95 Jul-98 Apr-01 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14 Sep-17

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

per

Day

“I can hardly remember how I built my bankroll, but I can't stop thinking of how I lost it.”Mike McDermott….Rounders


26

Iran: Production History and Outlook

Forecasting pre-sanctions production declines to the present, Iran should have 3.3mmbopd total productive capacity…an incremental

500kbopd higher than current 2.8mmbopd

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20

Oil

Prod

uctio

n, m

mbo

pd

500k bopd increase

1mm bopd increase

SanctionsStatus Quo


27

Saudi Arabia: Production History and Outlook

Saudi scenarios: They signaled a decline once internal summer demand wanes. Saudi could certainly keep ramping but we doubt they would go above 11mmbpd as they want to keep 1.5mmbpd excess capacity to fill a

global supply disruption.

1. Saudi increased supply to 9.2mmbpd in mid-08 and decreased to 7.8mmbopd in early ’09

2. Supply increased in early ’11 due to tightening markets and then the onset of Arab Spring

3. Saudi recently increased supply to 10.3+mmbpd.

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18

Oil

Prod

uctio

n, m

mbo

pd

Saudi Stated Capacity: 12.5mmbpd

1

2

3

10.4mmbopd

Continue ramp to 11mmbopd

Down 500kbpd to 9.8mmbpd


Cumulative OPEC Excess Capacity In The Early 80s!

28

0

5

10

15

20

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Exc

ess

Capaci

ty, m

mbpd

Excess Capacity ComponentsDuring Early 1980's

Excess Capacity

Non-OPEC Growth

Demand Contraction

1985 - more than half of excess capacity was driven by non- OPEC supply growth...

1985 – more than half of excess capacity was driven by non-OPEC supply growth…


29

Sweet Spots –Drilling Inventory in Tier 1?

□ Drainage Area Wall Street Math vs. Reality? Well spacing = potential interference = higher terminal decline rates

Steeper Terminal Decline Rate

□ Does not impact NPV but does impact reserves/DD&A and long term production outlook

Fracture Optimization

□ Are we in the 4th or 8th Inning?

□ Have we reached the practical limits to lateral length and sand volumes?

□ Re-Frac’s – How big is the opportunity?

Service Costs

□ Should re-inflate in 2016+

Non-OPEC

□ Cuts to exploration capex should materially affect deepwater growth in the long term.

Things That Makes Us Say…Huh?

It’s Happening Now!

30

January 2015

February 2015

March 2015

Appendix

31

Dry gas rig count drop to accelerate declines in legacy basins. Since Aug. 2014, rig count down from 101 to 63 and may drop further over the coming months.

1000 rigs dropping out of the associated gas market to drive volume declines by Q3’15.

Northeast going ex-growth for the majority of 2015 and we see downside bias to production estimates on shut-in volumes.

NGL collapse may cause cash flow shortfall, further pressuring rig count in the Marcellus and Utica.

Canadian E&Ps have significantly cut back growth capex (TPHe -40% y/y). On reduced capital plans, plays like the Montney may struggle to offset conventional declines, meaning less gas being sent south.

Coal to Gas switching (TPHe 3Bcf/d at $2.75/mcf) to provide a floor for commodity near term as fundamentals correct over the year.

Structural demand changes kicking in, with over 2Bcf/d of potential growth in 2015 driven by industrial demand, coal fleet retirement, Mexican gas exports and LNG facility start-ups late in the year.

Why Are We Bullish Natural Gas into 2016?

Rig Count ProgressionBasins Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15

Fayetteville 14 11 13 13 12 10 14 8Haynesville 43 44 39 39 41 41 40 33

Barnett 16 15 13 14 13 9 8 3Pinedale 14 14 16 16 15 14 11 11Piceance 14 14 15 13 14 14 8 8

Total 101 98 96 95 95 88 81 63

Rig Count ProgressionBasins Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15

Marcellus 91 89 91 85 76 84 72 60Utica 40 42 41 45 47 48 39 33Total 131 131 132 130 123 132 111 93

Source: Drillinginfo, Company Filings, TPH & Co.32

33

Nat Gas Market ~Balanced YTD 2015

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

26-Dec 27-Mar 26-J un 25-Sep 25-Dec

Wor

king

Gas

, bc

f

Normal

Max2014

Min

2015


34

71

72

73

74

75

76

Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15

BCF

EIA 914 vs Flow DataSept 2014 - YTD

914

Flow Data 1

Flow Data 2

Gas Demand OK….Supply THE Outstanding Question

EIA, LCI Energy, TPH & Co

Which is Right?

35

TPH Gas Production Forecast > 2016 Ex-Growth

(8)

(6)

(4)

(2)

-

2

4

6

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

BCF

TPHe Gas Production GrowthYoY 2010-2017

Northeast

Associated Gas

Other

Total

Response to 2012 gas prices plus GOM declines

Back to the races, though

Northeast growth May be

limited by associated gas

production

Associated gas masked all but 500mmcfd of

“other” declines 2012-2014 allowing NE growth to

standout

Associated gas goes ex-

growth…NE production

growth needed to offset declines

Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, TPH & Co.

36

Leading Edge Data Suggests Gas Production Declining

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

bcfd

Gas Production Growth by RegionSept 2014 = 0

Total Lower 48

GOM

Gulf Onshore

Mid Con

Rockies

Permian

San Juan

East

West

Source: EIA, LCI Energy, TPH & Co.

37

In the Background Coal Prices Moving Down

$9

$10

$11

$12

$13

$14

$15

$46

$51

$56

$61

$66

$71

1/2/2015 2/2/2015 3/2/2015 4/2/2015 5/2/2015 6/2/2015 7/2/2015 8/2/2015

PRB

$/to

n

NA

PP $

/ton

NAPP

PRB

Coal prices down ~25% YTD…moves a $3.75/mmbtu gas break-

even to >$3/mmbtu

38

Onshore Natural Gas Production Growth (EIA-914)


40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

Jan-

15

bcf/

day

39

Natural Gas Production (EIA-914)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

Jan-

15

bcf/

day

Other States

Gulf of Mexico

Louisiana

New Mexico, Oklahoma, Wyoming

Texas

40

TPH Gas Supply Model

Actuals Forecast 2020E vs.Gas (mmcf/d) 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2013A

Marcellus 226 1,146 3,292 6,208 9,536 12,793 14,394 16,012 18,508 21,185 23,830 25,845 16,309 Utica 0 2 9 56 421 1,613 2,789 3,586 4,510 5,405 6,267 7,068 6,647 Eagle Ford 297 609 1,433 2,845 4,339 5,653 6,108 6,134 6,829 7,635 8,409 9,198 4,858 Permian 4,444 4,283 4,282 4,635 5,136 5,592 5,795 5,769 6,151 6,781 7,555 8,438 3,302 SCOOP 43 72 94 128 260 423 608 1,044 1,656 2,248 2,678 2,938 2,678 Niobrara 547 575 635 699 862 1,163 1,290 1,394 1,672 1,977 2,292 2,606 1,744 Bakken 273 348 493 804 1,024 1,387 1,493 1,462 1,503 1,528 1,654 1,764 740 MS Lime 602 547 590 773 893 997 1,015 962 1,026 1,159 1,282 1,412 519 Pinedale 3,223 3,055 3,002 2,921 2,852 2,865 2,848 2,821 2,819 2,825 2,834 2,844 (7) GW, Tonk, Cle 1,972 2,011 2,308 2,439 2,375 2,321 2,082 1,806 1,694 1,635 1,610 1,609 (767) Piceance 2,749 2,521 2,569 2,497 2,249 2,078 1,940 1,733 1,584 1,546 1,528 1,499 (750) Cana Woodford 825 839 883 955 1,081 1,088 971 992 1,019 1,034 1,046 1,056 (25) Fayetteville 1,646 2,347 2,787 2,983 2,965 2,873 2,544 2,250 2,107 1,966 1,876 1,812 (1,154) FO Gulf 7,357 6,710 5,553 4,896 4,058 3,793 3,835 3,674 3,433 3,159 2,906 2,674 (1,385) Barnett 5,212 5,354 5,703 5,829 5,553 5,044 4,468 4,020 3,879 3,809 3,733 3,669 (1,883) Haynesville 4,421 6,767 9,370 9,125 7,281 6,391 5,854 5,501 5,441 5,420 5,381 5,350 (1,931) All Other US States 26,930 25,600 24,438 22,879 20,393 19,469 18,885 18,318 17,769 17,236 16,719 16,217 (4,176)

TPH Forecast 60,765 62,785 67,441 70,672 71,279 75,543 76,919 77,480 81,600 86,547 91,601 95,999 NAGrowth 2,020 4,655 3,232 607 4,264 1,376 560 4,120 4,948 5,054 4,398 24,720

Source: Drillinginfo, Company Filings, TPH & Co.

LPG Exports?

Liquids rich drilling has driven >400 MBPD of propane production growth over the last 4 years

Supply growth has steadily outpaced demand driving pricing erosion with C3 cut by a third as a percent of WTI

Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-180

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

US LPG Export Capacity (MBPD)

EPD Targa EPD 2013 Expansion Targa Sept 2013 ExpansionTarga Q3 2014 Mariner East I EPD 2015 Expansion Mariner SouthOXY Corpus EPD Phase 2: OTI PSX Sweeny Terminal Mariner East IICurrent US Exports

Pro

pane E

xport

s (

MB

PD

)

41

Distance, Economics have cut off NE & Canada from Belvieu

42Source: Company Presentations, Public Filings, TPH Estimates, EIA

43

Analyst Certification: I, Dave Pursell, do hereby certify that, to the best of my knowledge, the views and opinions in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the company and its securities. I have not nor will I receive direct or indirect compensation in return for expressing specific recommendations or viewpoints in this report.

Important Disclosures: The analysts above (or members of their household) do not own any securities mentioned in this report. For detailed rating information, distribution of ratings, price charts and disclosures regarding compensation policy and investment banking revenue, please visit our website at http://www.TPHco.com/Disclosure or request a written copy of the disclosures by calling 713-333-2960 (United States). Beneficial Ownership Disclosure:

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RESEARCH

Oil Service / E&C

J eff [email protected]

Byron [email protected]

George O’[email protected]

Taylor [email protected]

Shola Labinjo**+44 20 3008 [email protected]

Integrated Oils

Anish Kapadia**+44 20 3008 [email protected]

David Gamboa**+44 20 3427 [email protected]

Refiners

Chi [email protected]

Matthew Blair, [email protected]

Erik [email protected]

TRADINGSALES

Houston

Clay [email protected]

Mike [email protected]

Rusty D’[email protected]

Mike [email protected]

Oliver [email protected]

J ohn [email protected]

Aly [email protected]

Houston - (800) 507-2400

Scott [email protected]

Seth [email protected]

Ally [email protected]

New York - (800) 507-2400

J ason [email protected]

Denver

Win [email protected]

New YorkCraig [email protected]

J ames [email protected]

Harry [email protected]

London

J onathan Wright**+44 20 3008 [email protected]

Macro

Dave [email protected]

Brandon [email protected]

Midstream

Brandon [email protected]

J eff Schmidt, [email protected]

Colton [email protected]

Erik [email protected]

Utilities / Power

Neel [email protected]

Ryan [email protected]

E&P

W. Mark [email protected]

Matt [email protected]

Michael [email protected]

J eoffrey [email protected]

J amaal [email protected]

Sameer [email protected]

Oliver [email protected]

E&P International

Anish Kapadia**+44 20 3008 [email protected]

Shola Labinjo**+44 20 3008 [email protected]

David Gamboa**+44 20 3427 [email protected]

Documents

Dave Pursell [email protected] 713-333-2962 *Disclosures begin on page 43 2016 Crude Oil Outlook – “Strong, like Bull” September 2015