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DTUDate Title
Fjernvarmen fremmod 2050
Professor MSO Marie MünsterDTU MAN, Energy System Analyse
2
DTUDate Title
Vejen frem
1. Effektivitet i bygninger og net2. Fleksibilitet via lagring3. Grøn fjernvarmeproduktion
3
DTUDate Title
Grøn fjernvarmeproduktion• Grønt brændsel
– Biomasse– Grøn gas– Affald
• Vedvarende energi– Varmepumper– Luft, jord/ grundvand, havvand, – Solvarme– Geotermi
• Overskudsvarme– Datacentre– Industri– Bioraffinaderier– Spildevand
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DTUDate Title
Samfundsøkonomiske Scenarier
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Same starting point in 2020
Late Sprint (EU goals)2030 compared to 2005:- 43% (ETS)- 39% (non-ETS)
MarathonCO22030 compared to 1990- 70% CO2
Marathon- 77% CO2 (reflects less
reduction in nonCO2)
Early SprintStaying within 375 Mio t.CO2 budget
DTUDate Title
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
ES M LS ES M LS ES M LS ES M LS ES M LS
2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Pow
er P
rodu
ctio
n [T
Wh]
Offshore Wind
Onshore wind
Solar PV
Electric batteries
Hydro
Woodpellet steam turbine
Woodchip steam turbine
Straw steam turbine
Municipal solid wasteturbineGas turbine
Gas engine
Lightoil turbine
Lightoil engine
Fueloil engine
Coal steam turbine
Elproduktion
DTUDate Title
Fjernvarmeproduktion
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
ES M LS ES M LS ES M LS ES M LS ES M LS
2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Dist
rict H
eatin
g Pr
oduc
tion
[TW
h]
Woodpellet steam turbine
Woodchip steam turbine
Straw steam turbine
Solar thermal
Geothermal heat
Gas turbine
Gas engine
Hybrid heat pump
Electric heat pump
Coal steam turbine
Excess heat
Municiple solid wasteturbine
• Mindre biomasse• Mange varmepumper• Stor udnyttelse af
overskudsvarme• Hybridvarmepumper i
Late Sprint
DTUDate Title
Lavere udnyttelse af overskudsvarme…?
• Scenarier– Base (Marathon scenarie)– 50% udnyttelse af overskudsvarme– Ingen udnyttelse af overskudsvarme
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DTUDate Title
Mindre overskudsvarme…?
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
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Base
Half
exce
ss h
eat
No
exce
ss h
eat
Base
Half
exce
ss h
eat
No
exce
ss h
eat
Base
Half
exce
ss h
eat
No
exce
ss h
eat
Base
Half
exce
ss h
eat
No
exce
ss h
eat
Base
Half
exce
ss h
eat
No
exce
ss h
eat
2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Dist
rict H
eatin
g Pr
oduc
tion
[TW
h]
Electric boiler
Woodpellet steam turbine
Woodchip steam turbine
Straw steam turbine
Solar thermal
Geothermal heat
Gas turbine
Gas engine
Hybrid heat pump
Electric heat pump
Coal steam turbine
Excess heat
Municiple solid wasteturbine
• Flere varmepumper
DTUDate Title
Grøn fjernvarmeproduktion• Grønt brændsel
– Biomasse– Grøn gas– Affald
• Vedvarende energi– Varmepumper– Luft, jord/ grundvand, havvand, – Solvarme– Geotermi
• Overskudsvarme– Datacentre– Industri– Bioraffinaderier– Spildevand
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DTUDate Title
Import af affald
13.12.201911
DTUDate Title13 Dece
Amalia Pizarro
Fortsat import af affald?
DTUDate Title13 Dece
DTUDate Title
Konklusion• Det kan samfundsøkonomisk betale sig at importere affald i dag og fremover• Det er i de fleste tilfælde fint set fra et klimamæssigt perspektiv i dag, men bliver ikke ved
med at være det, så vi skal ikke bygge overkapacitet• Afgørende faktorer er den alternative behandling af affald og hvilken energi der evt.
fortrænges• Transport er mindre afgørende
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DTUDate Title
Environmental system scope
13.12.201915
DTUDate Title
Scenarios
Dk energy system
Waste quality
Transport mode
Transport distance
Alt. waste man.
Alt. el. prod.
Biomass marginal
450 x 4 scenarios
13.12.201916
DTUDate Title
Average net GHG balanceImporting 0.3 Mt/a (2014)
13.12.201917
DTUDate Title
Average net GHG emissions 2035 HighElec, importing 0.5 Mt/a(Marginal el. abroad - biomass marginal)
13.12.201918
DTUDate Title
Conclusion - environmental impact
• Mixed combustible waste may pollute future clean energy systems (but better use with CHP)
• The energy displaced, HighElec or LowElec, has a higher impact in the balance than the quality of the imported waste, i.e. high or low LHV
• Sustainability of displaced biomass also plays a role (although minor)• Leaving the waste at engineered landfills may be the best option (counting
Cbio sink)• Other environmental impacts should also be analysed
So - Is there a climate benefit of importing waste? Today, yes. In 2035, rarely.• Basically don't plan for future import of waste for climate reasons• Only import waste if 1) the alternative waste management will be at a
sanitary landfill or if 2) local incineration would displace green electricity
13.12.201919