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Data Policies and Services TradeCEP IMF World Bank WTO workshop
Trade Policy, Inclusiveness and the Rise of the Services EconomyThursday, 26 March 2018
Erik van der MarelMartina Ferracane
Senior Economist at ECIPE Univesité Libre de Bruxelles (ULB) - Solvay Brussels School
What data policies are problematic?
Internet com services
Cloud-based data
processing
Digital content E-commerce IoT
Data measuresData protection and privacy x x x x xData localization x x x x
Cybersecurity measuresDisclosing source codes x x x xRestrictions on cryptography x x x x x
Censorship xIPR measures
Intermediate l iabil ity x x xAnciliary copyrights x x x
USITC (2017)
Literature
• Bauer et al. (2016), Ferracane and van der Marel (2018) | TFP• Goldfarb and Trefler (2018), … | Trade
Contribution
• Creating a data policy index• ECIPE | 64 countries, (Chapter 8 ECIPE’s DTRI)
• Impact of restrictive data policies on imports of data-intense services• WTO-UNCTAD-ITC | 18 sectors, including IPR
Data policy
• Data localization, local storage, local processing requirements (CB)• Data retention, DPO, administrative barriers on privacy (DR)• Excessively high costs measures / discriminatory • Could be replaced by less burdensome substitutes
Data policy index
Categories Type of measures Weights
1.1 Cross-border flow restrictions (CB) 0.51.1.1 Ban to transfer or local processing requirement 0.51.1.2 Local storage requirement 0.251.1.3 Conditional flow regime 0.25
1.2 Data retention (DR) 0.151.2.1 Minimum period 0.71.2.2 Maximum period 0.3
1.3 Subject rights on data privacy (DR) 0.11.3.1 Burdensome consent requirement 0.31.3.2 Right to be forgotten 0.3
Data policy index (cont’d)
Categories Type of measures Weights
1.4 Administrative requirements on data privacy (DR) 0.151.4.1 Data protection impact assessment (DPIA) 0.31.4.2 Data protection officer (DPO) 0.31.4.3 Data breach notification 0.11.4.4 Government access to personal data 0.3
1.5 Sanctions for non-compliance (DR) 0.051.5.1 Monetary fine above 250.000 euros or set as a percentage of revenue 0.51.5.2 Jail time 0.5
1.6 Other restrictive practices related to data policies (DR) 0.051.6.1 Other restrictive practices related to data policies 1
Digital services imports
ARG
AUS
AUT
BEL
BGR
BRA CAN
CHE
CHL
CHN
COL
CRI
CYP
CZE
DEU
DNK
ECU
ESP
EST
FIN
FRAGBR
GRCHKG
HRV
HUN
IDN
IND
IRL
ISL
ISR
ITA
JPN
KOR
LTU
LVA
LUX
MEX
MLT
MYS
NGA
NLD
NORNZLPAK
PAN
PERPHL
POL
PRT
PRY
ROU
RUS
SGP
SVK
SVN
SWE
THA
TUR
USA
VNM
ZAF
-20
24
6
ln(D
igita
l-in
tense
se
rvic
e im
po
rts in
GD
P (
20
15
))
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
Data policy index (2015)
Correlations(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM)
OTHTRA PO&CO CONSTR FINA IPR TELEC INFO R&D TECH AUDIO
Data policy CB -5.076** -2.632** -0.882* 1.845*** -0.629** 1.013*** 1.406 -1.763* -1.173 -2.002*
-0.046 -0.015 -0.059 -0.002 -0.017 -0.008 -0.197 -0.086 -0.163 -0.073
Data policy DR 0.636 1.173 2.390*** -1.582* -1.116** -0.021 -3.945*** -1.486 0.73 0.337
-0.382 -0.452 -0.001 -0.088 -0.017 -0.965 -0.003 -0.101 -0.152 -0.492
FE country Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
FE year Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Observations 278 290 446 537 537 411 345 333 441 315
R2A 0.982 0.928 0.916 0.936 0.974 0.961 0.915 0.97 0.97 0.94
R2W 0.134 0.025 0.015 0.032 0.017 0.017 0.042 0.022 0.015 0.012
RMSE 0.26 0.481 0.59 0.434 0.311 0.265 0.562 0.435 0.312 0.462
Empirical strategy
• Use of sectoral data-intensities (follows Arnold et al., 2015; 2011) • Interacted with data policy index: data-linkage variable:
!"#" $%&'"() (DL)./0 = ln ∑5 ϛ7589:7∗ <"#" =>?%@A %&<)B.0
Empirical strategy (cont’d)
• Regressing log of services imports on data-linkage variable
!"(SM)'() = + + -DL'()01 + 2') + 3() +4'()
• 2006-16, lag, US intensities, strict clustering, robustness checks
Data-intensities
(1) US Census 2010 software expenditures *(2) US BEA IO Use Table for 2007 • Ratio over US BLS labour data, expressed as ln(D/L) ≠ DL
Data-intensity (US Census)
5.9
4.6
3.43.0
2.3
1.6 1.41.2
0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
02
46
(D/L
) Dat
a-in
tens
ity U
S C
ensu
s &
BLS
Teleco
m
Compu
ter
Inform
ation
Financ
ial
Insura
nce
Intell
ectua
l prop
erty
Other tr
ansp
ort
Sea tra
nspo
rt
Audiov
isual
& relat
ed
Air tran
sport
R&D
Profes
siona
l & m
anag
Postal
& couri
er
Person
al, cu
ltural
& recr.
Tech.,
trade
-rel. &
othe
r
Mainten
ance
& repa
ir
Constr
uctio
nTrav
el
Data-intensity Cap (over labour)
Descriptive
Information
Sea transportAir transport
Maintenance & repair
Personal, cultural & recr.
Other transport
R&DTelecom
Construction
Insurance
Tech., trade-rel. & other
Intellectual property
Travel
Postal & courier
Computer
Financial
Professional & manag
Audiovisual & related
24
68
ln(P
er C
apita
Ser
vice
Impo
rts (2
015)
)
0 2 4 6ln(D/L) Data-intensity BEA IO Table 2007
Netherlands Services Imports and Data-intensity
Sea transportOther transport
InformationMaintenance & repair
Travel
Construction
Tech., trade-rel. & other
Postal & courier
Personal, cultural & recr.
Telecom
Air transport
Professional & manag
InsuranceFinancial
-20
24
6
ln(P
er C
apita
Ser
vice
Impo
rts (2
015)
)
-2 0 2 4 6ln(D/L) Data-intensity BEA IO Table 2007
Turkey's Services Imports and Data-intensity
Baseline results(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM)
ln(D/L) * Data policy -0.222***(0.001)
ln(D/L) * Data policy CB -0.384*** -0.379*** -0.267*** -0.509*** -0.338***(0.000) (0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.001)
ln(D/L) * Data policy DR -0.202* -0.016 0.076 -0.125 -0.019(0.094) (0.898) (0.460) (0.394) (0.879)
FE year-country Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesFE year-sector Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesType software in (D/L) NC NC NC NC NC Pur NC Lic C
Observations 7250 7250 7250 7250 6959 6959 7250R2A 0.78 0.78 0.779 0.78 0.777 0.777 0.78R2W 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.002 0.001 0.004 0.002RMSE 1.053 1.053 1.054 1.053 1.043 1.042 1.053
STRI control(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM)
ln(D/L) * Data policy -1.598***(0.001)
ln(D/L) * Data policy CB -2.078*** -1.707** -1.205*** -1.177*** -1.186***(0.007) (0.025) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003)
ln(D/L) * Data policy DR -2.022*** -1.464* -0.524 -0.579 -0.574(0.009) (0.062) (0.211) (0.170) (0.173)
STRI -3.236 -2.967 -3.750 -3.194 -0.966** -1.068** -1.106**(0.500) (0.536) (0.437) (0.507) (0.017) (0.026) (0.024)
FE year-country Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesFE year-sector Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesSTRI classification M1 M1 M1 M1 ENTIRE MA&NT DISCR
Observations 430 430 430 430 950 886 886R2A 0.757 0.755 0.754 0.757 0.763 0.753 0.753R2W 0.034 0.026 0.020 0.034 0.027 0.028 0.028RMSE 0.964 0.968 0.971 0.965 0.951 0.948 0.948
Data-intensity (BEA IO Use)
IO code Sector description
511200 Software publishers
517110 Wired telecommunications carriers
517210 Wireless telecommunications carriers (except satellite)
518200 Data processing, hosting, and related services
519130 Internet publishing and broadcasting and Web search portals
541511 Custom computer programming services
541512 Computer systems design services
541513 Other computer related services, including facilities management
Data-intensity (BEA IO Use)
87.1
31.8
21.2 20.1 19.4
9.2 9.0 7.1 5.4 5.2 3.1 3.1 2.9 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.5
020
4060
80
(D/L
) Dat
a-in
tens
ity B
EA
IO T
able
& B
LS
Teleco
m
Intell
ectua
l prop
erty
Tech.,
trade
-rel. &
othe
r
Financ
ial
Compu
ter
Inform
ation
Audiov
isual
& relat
ed
Sea tra
nspo
rtR&D
Profes
siona
l & m
anag
Insura
nce
Air tran
sport
Mainten
ance
& re
pair
Person
al, cu
ltural
& re
cr.
Other tr
ansp
ort
Postal
& co
urier
Constr
uctio
nTrav
el
Data-intensity (over Labour)
Data-intensity (BEA IO Use vs US Census)
Maintenance & repair
Sea transport
Air transport
Other transport
Postal & courier
TravelConstruction
Insurance
Financial
Intellectual property
Telecom
Computer
Information
R&DProfessional & manag
Tech., trade-rel. & other
Audiovisual & related
Personal, cultural & recr.
-20
24
ln(D
/L) D
ata-
inte
nsity
BE
A IO
Tab
le 2
007
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2ln(D/L) Data-intensity Census ICT 2010
BEA IO data-intensities(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM) ln(SM)
ln(D/L) * Data policy -0.876**(0.046)
ln(D/L) * Data policy CB -0.966 -0.709 -0.144 -0.736** -0.761**(0.140) (0.265) (0.134) (0.020) (0.016)
ln(D/L) * Data policy DR -1.322** -1.091* 0.167 -0.327 -0.34(0.045) (0.083) (0.162) (0.290) (0.265)
STRI -4.154 -3.523 -4.533 -4.319 -0.905** -1.073**(0.388) (0.467) (0.348) (0.375) (0.025) (0.028)
FE year-country Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesFE year-sector Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesSTRI class M1 M1 M1 M1 NO ENTIRE MA&NT
Observations 430 430 430 430 7250 950 886R2A 0.757 0.755 0.754 0.757 0.779 0.76 0.75R2W 0.034 0.026 0.020 0.034 0.000 0.017 0.018RMSE 0.964 0.968 0.971 0.965 1.054 0.956 0.953
Further robustness checks
• Baseline extention with WEF’s NRI• BaTIS database (BEA IO)
• World Bank’s STRI (cross-section)