Data Management and Modelling for Bioeconomy Markets Bioeconomy Observatory First Stakeholders Round Table Brussels, 26 November 2013

R. M'barek, A. Caivano, G. Philippidis, T. Ronzon, F. Santini, C.

Suta, C. Vinyes, A. Cardenete (Loyola U.)

European Commission

Joint Research Centre (IPTS, Seville)

Our role in BISO

• Describing, quantifying and analysing the development of sectors in BE from a socio-economic point of view

• Tools of the integrated Agro-economic Modelling Platform (iMAP) at IPTS

(http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pub.cfm?id=4859)

• Adapting, improving and further developing existing

concepts and tools

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http://www.biofuelstp.eu/bioeconomy.html

Source: http://www.biofuelstp.eu/spm5/pres/dupont.pdf

Bioeconomy linkages

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Data storing, comparing and visualising

Description of bio-based sectors on EU MS level (Social Accounting Matrices)

Scenario analysis with global simulation model (MAGNET)

Tools for BISO

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Data storing, comparing and visualising

A. Caivano, R. M'barek, T. Ronzon, F. Santini, C. Suta

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DataM

• Easy access to data

• Unique interface

• User friendly

• Data up to date

• Analyse and report on data:

• Graphical interface and reporting tool

• An efficient search

• Compare and transform data:

• MAPPING (comparability) of the different data-sources

• Development of common dictionaries

• Dissemination of data to different targets:

• Reports, factsheets, queries

• Web-application

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Data included and forthcoming

Already available

Market balances, outlook etc. (ESTAT, DG AGRI, FAO, USDA, etc.)

Prices (Spot, futures, ESTAT, FAO, World Bank, IMF etc.)

Trade (FAO, Comext, Comtrade (agriculture-related))

Resources, development FAO Resources, ILOSTAT, ); European Labour

Force Survey; World Development Indicators;

Others EUROSTAT Economic Accounts for Agriculture;

Other EUROSTAT databases: Food chain supply;

FSS; FADN; and other macroeconomic indicators

(e.g. Balance of Payments, Interest Rate,

Exchange rate etc.);

To be included

Eurostat Forestry; Fisheries

Eurostat Environment

Eurostat Energy

Prodcom (activities A, C, D, E of NACE Rev. 2)

EUMOFA

Eurostat Structural Business

Statistics

etc.

Bio-energy Forestry

Agriculture etc.

DataM

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Next steps

• Pilot version online

• Spring 2014

• Link from BISO website to DataM

• New databases

• Forestry, fisheries, energy etc.

• Prodcom

• Industry and stakeholders data

• Preparation of reports

• Easy and quick access to data

• Visualisation of key data

Demonstration of tool … if time available

http://www.datamweb.com/datam/ (pilot version)

http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pub.cfm?id=6339

(report describing DataM, 2013)

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Description of bio-based sectors on MS level

G. Philippidis, R. M'barek, A. Cardenete (Loyola Univ.)

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http://www.biofuelstp.eu/bioeconomy.html

Bioeconomy linkages

A sector is linked to other sectors by its direct and indirect purchases (Backward Linkage, BL) sales (Forward Linkage, FL) Agriculture uses industrial inputs like fertilizers, machinery (BL) Agriculture supplies raw materials to agro-based industries (FL)

BL: if >1, a change of 1 euro in the final demand of THIS sector generates in increase in the activity of ALL sectors of more than 1 euro FL: if >1, a change of 1 euro in the final demand of ALL sectors generates in increase in the activity of THIS sector of more than 1 euro

How to identify strategically important biobased sectors?

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AgroSAM 2007

• linking' • Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) /

Input-Output Tables

• JRC published the EU-27 (AgroSAMs) for year 2000 and applied for BE in EU

• (http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pub.cfm?id=5260; Report 2012)

• For BISO updated for 2007 employing

Eurostat data (IO tables, economic accounts data) and GDP target data subject to SAM accounting conventions and balancing restrictions.

• 28 agricultural and 12 processed food sectors; in total 98 activities (NACE)

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AgroSAM 2007

• Example of structural classification based on multiplier analysis.

• Sample of seven countries chosen primarily based on importance of agriculture and food measured by % of GDP: • ROM, HUN, POL – important • ESP, FRA – middling • UK, GER – not (that) important

• Two purposes of this type of work:

• Identify strategically important biobased sectors (so called 'key sectors' with BL & FL > 1) within each country and identify growing and declining industries (over time).

• Classify EU economies in a given year (comparisons between EU members (cross section) and across time 2000 and 2007 (panel data)).

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Backward Linkage >1 Forward Linkage >1 KEY SECTORS CEREALS UK, GER, HUN HUN HUN

OILSEED UK, GER, ROM

POTATOES UK, GER, POL, ROM ROM ROM

FRUITVEG UK, GER, HUN, ROM

LIVEPLANT UK, POL

INTENS LIVESTOCK UK, GER, ESP, FRA, HUN, POL, ROM FRA, HUN, ROM FRA, HUN, ROM

EXTENS LIVESTOCK UK, GER, ESP, FRA, POL, ROM

FISH UK, ESP, HUN, POL, ROM

RED MEAT UK, GER, ESP, FRA, HUN, POL, ROM

WHITE MEAT UK, GER, ESP, FRA, HUN, POL ROM

DAIRY UK, GER, ESP, FRA, HUN, POL, ROM

VEG OIL UK, FRA, HUN, POL

SUGAR UK, GER, FRA, HUN, POL

OTHER FOOD UK, GER, ESP, FRA, HUN, POL, ROM ESP, FRA ESP, FRA

BEVERAGES UK, GER, ESP, FRA, HUN, POL, ROM

TEXTILE UK, GER, ESP, FRA, HUN, ROM

WOOD UK, GER, ESP, FRA, HUN, POL, ROM

PULP&PAPER UK, GER, ESP, FRA, HUN, POL, ROM

CHEMISTRY UK, GER, ESP, FRA, HUN, POL, ROM UK, GER, ESP, FRA, HUN, POL, ROM UK, GER, ESP, FRA, HUN, POL, ROM

PLASTIC UK, GER, ESP, FRA, HUN, POL, ROM

FURNITURE UK, GER, ESP, FRA, HUN, POL, ROM

ELECTRICITY UK, GER, ESP, FRA, POL, ROM UK, GER, ESP, FRA, POL, ROM UK, GER, ESP, FRA, POL, ROM

WATER UK, GER, ESP, FRA, HUN, POL, ROM

Example: identify important sectors

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Structural overview of bio-agri-food sectors Comparison Spain 2000 and 2007

2000 2007

Example: development over time, Spain

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Scenario analysis with a simulation model

C. Vinyes

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Possible developments over the next decade(s)

Embedded in a dynamic & globalised world

Different drivers (baseline), policies and resource constraints

influencing the bioeconomy

GTAP is a CGE model where the whole economy is represented. MAGNET: dynamic general equilibrium model

MAGNET is GTAP based, extended with modules that are switched on/off depending on the policy question at hand.

Developed by LEI (NL); IPTS has cooperation with LEI on MAGNET since 3 years Source: Brockmeier, M. (2001)

MAGNET

1 Paddy rice 20 White meat 39 Transp. equipment

2 Wheat 21 Veg. oils and fats 40 Electronic equipment

3 Cereal grains 22 Dairy 41 Machinery

4 Veg. & fruits 23 Processed rice 42 Manufactures

5 Oil seeds 24 Sugar 43 Electricity

6 Sugar cane 25 Food products 44 Gas

7 Fibers 26 Bev. and tob. 45 Water

8 oCrops 27 Textiles 46 Construction

9 Cattle 28 Wearing apparel 47 Trade

10 Animal products 29 Leather products 48 Transport

11 Raw milk 30 Wood products 49 Water transport

12 Wool 31 Paper products 50 Air transport

13 Forestry 32 Petroleum 51 Communication

14 Fishing 33 Chemicals 52 Financial services

15 Coal 34 Mineral products 53 Insurance

16 Oil 35 Ferrous metals 54 Business services

17 Gas 36 Metals 55 Recreational

18 Minerals 37 Metal products 56 Public Admin.

19 Red meat 38 Motor vehicles 57 Dwellings

At least 30 sectors are related to bio-economy

Database

129 regions (GTAP database)

May account for new relevant sectors for bio-economy (eg. Biofuel and by-products).

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Includes endogenous subsidy on biofuels to achieve a blending target.

Endogenous land supply which allows expansion (price driven).

Flexible representation of the production tree, eg. Petroleum:

MAGNET

Bioethanol

PETROLEUM

Biodiesel

BIOFUEL

Commodity or endowment Subproducts Legend:

FOSSIL FUEL

nlvaen

UnSklab SkLab Capital NatRes land

all other intermediates inputs

• Based on 1 EJ biomass use per technology

• Three technologies: 1) 2nd Generation biofuel and 2) Bioelectricity, 3) Biochemicals

Impact of the use of biomass for different biobased applications in the EU

Cost calculations (spreadsheet) CGE Model based

Cost of producing "biobased"

Cost of producing

"conventional"

Net change of value of

production = Net GDP effect

Net GDP effect

MAGNET

Multiplier effect

Fuel 10.7 13.7 3.0 5.0 1.7

Electricity 10.2 7.7 -2.5 -3.0 1.2

Chemicals 11.8 22.4 10.6 6.0 0.6

The impact of the use of 1 EJ biomass for the production of fuel, electricity,

chemicals on the production value and GDP (billion $).

Source: Smeets et al., (forthcoming), ongoing work with LEI, The Hague

Example:

MAGNET's bio-economy representation in the future

Extensions of MAGNET:

Supply of biomass (ie. Wood, residues and waste).

Include second generation biofuels and bio-chemicals.

Include fertilizers as a separate sector.

Impact analysis (example):

Land use change, environment.

Economic indicators: GDP, energy prices

Biofuel production, value added from biobased production

Impact of efficiency changes of biobased inputs

Further developments

Summary

• DataM

• Web-based access to main data sources (focus agri-food)

• Visualisation and reporting

• 2014: continuous extension of databases and updates

• AgroSAM

• Identification of strategically important biobased sectors

• Classification EU economies

• 2014: report, update

• MAGNET

• Tool for analysis of bioeconomy in a global and multi-sector

context; impact analysis

• 2014: sector disaggregation, scenarios

• Synergies with SAT-BBE

• Need for data, SAMs, IOT, simulation tools

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Thank you for your attention.

contact: Robert.M'BAREK@ec.europa.eu

AgroSAM