Upload
others
View
7
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Data, Analysis & Insight for a Stronger Industry Building Bridges between Franchisees, Franchisors & Financiers
Industry Data Report Unit & Sales Growth 2020 - 2021
Table of Contents Pages Unit Development & Closure Analysis
➢ 10 Year Unit Development and Closure Summary by Segment 2
➢ 10 Year System-wide Unit Count by Chain Exhibit 3 - 4
➢ 2020 Actual/2021 Projected Unit Detail by Chain 5
➢ 2020 Actual/2021 Projected Unit % Change by Chain vs. 10 Year Average 6
➢ Unit Development Trends 7
➢ Closure Rates Trends 8
Systemwide Sales Growth & Market Share Analysis
➢ 10 Year Systemwide Sales & Market Share Summary by Segment 9
➢ 10 Year Systemwide Sales & Market Share by Chain Exhibit 10 - 11
➢ Systemwide Sales & Market Share Trends 12
Data in spreadsheet form available at http://www.ChainRestaurantData.com
Copyright: This Restaurant Research LLC document is copyrighted material. Due to the No Electronic Theft (NET) Act of 1997,
electronic forwarding, or other forms of redistribution, without the express permission of Restaurant Research LLC, are
violations of law and could be subject to fines of up to $250,000 and up to five years of imprisonment, even when no financial
gain or commercial advantage accrues to the forwarder/re-distributor. Copyright 2021 Restaurant Research® LLC. All rights
reserved.
Report Highlights
• 10-year history for 56 $1B+ chains including: (1) total units; (2) new units; (3) closures; (4) systemwide sales;
and (5) system sales market share.
Conclusions
• Despite the most difficult operating environment in the industry’s history, gross development increased +2.1%.
This reflected the ability of certain QSR chains to leverage their post-lockdown competitive advantages into new
development.
• Projected 2021 gross new unit development of +2.7% is slightly above 2019’s +2.6% growth rate, but still
represents a continuation of the longer-term trend of slowing development relative to the +3.8% 2014 peak.
• Notably, 2021 development headwinds include ramping material costs (lumber CPI +74% YTD May 2021).
We will monitor the level of impact this material cost headwind will have on the development pipeline.
• 2020 closure rates for the $1B+ chains were much more manageable (-3.7%) than expected because of QSR
strength and because of government assistance for FSR.
• The 2020 $1B+ chain systemwide sales outperformance (relative to the rest of the industry) reflects the clear
benefit of scale which helps the national brands to excel around tech, access, and marketing.
• Net/net, the $1B+ QSR Chains were able to recoup ~10 years of market share losses in 2020.
Repor
t Outlin
e
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P 10 Yr. Avg.
(2011-2020)
Fast Casual
Chicken
Coffee/Bakery
Pizza
Sub-Sandwich
Sandwich
Family
Casual
Total
Total New Units
Total Units
Net Growth %
Sandwich
Chicken
Casual
Fast Casual
Coffee/Bakery
Pizza
Family
Sub-Sandwich
Total
Total Closed Units
Closure Rates (Sorted by 2020 Closures Low to High)
$1B+ Restaurant Chains Unit Development & Closure Rate Segment Summary
Gross Unit Development (Sorted by 2020 Growth High to Low)
Repor
t Outlin
e
Total Co. Units Fran. Units% Fran.
Owned20/'19 CAGR '11 - '20
McDonald's
Taco Bell (1)
Burger King
Wendy's
Dairy Queen (2)
Sonic Drive-In
Arby's
Chick-fil-A
Jack in the Box
Hardee's
Five Guys
Carl's Jr.
Zaxby's
Whataburger
Checkers/ Rally's
Culver's
Sandwich
Subway
Jimmy John's
Jersey Mike's
Firehouse Subs
Sub-Sandwich
Starbucks (5)
Dunkin Donuts (4)
Tim Horton's
Krispy Kreme (6)
Coffee/Bakery
Domino's
Pizza Hut (2)
Little Caesars (3)
Papa John's
Pizza
KFC (2)
Popeyes
Wingstop
Church's
Bojangles'
Chicken
FYE 2020 Unit Summary Net Unit Growth Rates
2014 2015 2017 2018 2019
U.S. System-wide Unit Summary 2011 - 2020 (Sorted by Total 2020 Units)
Includes All $1B+ Chains and Other Select Concepts
20162011 2012 2013
Repor
t Outlin
e
Total Co. Units Fran. Units% Fran.
Owned20/'19 CAGR '11 - '20
FYE 2020 Unit Summary Net Unit Growth Rates
2014 2015 2017 2018 2019
U.S. System-wide Unit Summary 2011 - 2020 (Sorted by Total 2020 Units)
Includes All $1B+ Chains and Other Select Concepts
20162011 2012 2013
Applebee's
Chili's Grill & Bar
Buffalo Wild Wings
Olive Garden
Outback
Red Lobster
Texas Roadhouse
LongHorn
Red Robin
T.G.I. Friday's
BJ's Restaurants
Cheesecake Factory
Casual
Chipotle
Panera Bread
Qdoba
Moe's Southwest Grill
Corner Bakery Café
Fast Casual
IHOP
Denny's
Cracker Barrel
Bob Evans
Golden Corral
Perkins
Family
Total
(4) Dunkin' Donuts figures include Baskin-Robbins combo units.
(5) Starbucks does not franchise, but has licensed units which are included under franchise stores.
(6) Krispy Kreme company store counts include consolidated franchisee units.
Source: SEC filings, company reports and Franchise Disclosure Documents RR Estimate
(1) KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut and Subway excludes licensed units.
(2) Dairy Queen figures include DQ Treat, DQ Limited Brazier, DQ Grill & Chill direct-licensed outlets, DQ Brazier direct-licensed outlets, Texas DQ direct-licensed outlets, DQ Grill & Chill sub franchised
territory operator outlets and DQ Brazier sub franchised territory operator outlets.
(3) Excludes non-traditional stores located in Kmart from 2001 - 2008. From 2009 forward, total unit count data includes non-traditional stores.
Repor
t Outlin
e
Fran.
Concept Total Co. Fran. Total Co. Fran. Transfers Total Co. Fran. Total Co. Fran.
Arby's
Burger King
Carl's Jr.
Checkers/ Rally's
Chick-fil-A
Culver's
Dairy Queen (1)
Five Guys
Hardee's
Jack in the Box
McDonald's
Sonic Drive-In
Taco Bell (2)
Wendy's
Whataburger
Zaxby's
Sandwich
Firehouse Subs
Jersey Mike's
Jimmy John's
Subway (2)
Sub-Sandwich
Dunkin Donuts (4)
Krispy Kreme (5)
Starbucks (6)
Tim Horton's
Coffee/Bakery
Domino's
Little Caesars (3)
Papa John's
Pizza Hut (2)
Pizza
Bojangles'
Church's
KFC (2)
Popeyes
WingstopChicken
Applebee's
BJ's Restaurants
Buffalo Wild Wings
Cheesecake Factory
Chili's Grill & Bar
LongHorn
Olive Garden
Outback
Red Lobster
Red Robin
T.G.I. Friday's
Texas Roadhouse
Casual
Chipotle
Corner Bakery Café
Moe's Southwest Grill
Panera Bread
Qdoba
Fast Casual
Bob Evans
Cracker Barrel
Denny's
Golden Corral
IHOP
Perkins
Family
Total
(5) Krispy Kreme company store counts include consolidated franchisee units.
(6) Starbucks does not franchise, but has licensed units which are included under franchise stores.
2020 Actual/2021 Projected Domestic Unit Activity DetailNew Units - 2020 Closed Units - 2020 Unit Count - 2020 Projected New - 2021
Source: SEC filings, company reports and Franchise Disclosure Documents RR Estimate
(1) The majority of DQ openings and closings include conversions to/from other DQ concepts.
(2) KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut and Subway excludes licensed units.
(3) Includes non-traditional stores located in Kmart.
(4) Dunkin Donuts figures include Baskin-Robbins combo units.
Repor
t Outlin
e
2021 Projected
Concept Openings Closings Net GrowthFranchise
TransfersOpenings Openings Closings
CAGR Net
Growth
Franchise
Transfers
Arby's
Burger King
Carl's Jr.
Checkers/ Rally's
Chick-fil-A
Culver's
Dairy Queen
Five Guys
Hardee's
Jack in the Box
McDonald's
Sonic Drive-In
Taco Bell
Wendy's
Whataburger
Zaxby's
Sandwich
Firehouse Subs
Jersey Mike's
Jimmy John's
Subway
Sub-Sandwich
Dunkin Donuts
Krispy Kreme
Starbucks
Tim Horton's
Coffee/Bakery
Domino's
Little Caesars
Papa John's
Pizza Hut
Pizza
Bojangles'
Church's
KFC
Popeyes
Wingstop
Chicken
Applebee's
BJ's Restaurants
Buffalo Wild Wings
Cheesecake Factory
Chili's Grill & Bar
LongHorn
Olive Garden
Outback
Red Lobster
Red Robin
T.G.I. Friday's
Texas Roadhouse
Casual
Chipotle
Corner Bakery Café
Moe's Southwest Grill
Panera Bread
Qdoba
Fast Casual
Bob Evans
Cracker Barrel
Denny's
Golden Corral
IHOP
Perkins
Family
Total
2020 Actual/2021 Projected and 10-year Annual Average Domestic Unit Growth Detail2020 Rates 10-Year Average
Source: SEC filings, company reports and Franchise Disclosure Documents RR estimate
Repor
t Outlin
e
Data, Analysis & Insight for a Stronger Industry Building Bridges between Franchisees, Franchisors & Financiers
IDR: Unit & Sales Growth 2021 Source: RR Estimates Page 7
Unit Development Trends
➢
➢
➢
Repor
t Outlin
e
Data, Analysis & Insight for a Stronger Industry Building Bridges between Franchisees, Franchisors & Financiers
IDR: Unit & Sales Growth 2021 Source: RR Estimates Page 8
Closure Rates Trends
➢
➢
➢
➢
Repor
t Outlin
e
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Chicken
Pizza
Sandwich
Fast Casual
Coffee/Bakery
Casual
Sub-Sandwich
Family
$1B+ Chains Sales
Y/Y % Change
Restaurant Industry
Y/Y % Change
Change 2020
vs. 2019
10 Yr. Change
(2020 vs. 2011)
Sandwich
Pizza
Chicken
Fast Casual
Coffee/Bakery
Sub-Sandwich
Family
Casual
$1B+ Chains
$1B+ Chains Share of
Total Industry
$1B+ Restaurant Chains Systemwide Sales Growth & Market Share Summary ($'000)10 Yr. CAGR
(2011-2020)Systemwide Sales Growth (Sorted by 2020)
Systemwide Market Share as a % of Total (Sorted by 2020 Change)
Repor
t Outlin
e
FYE '20/
FYE '19
Compound
Growth '11 - '202020
Change
'20/'19
Change
'20/'11
McDonald's
Chick-fil-A
Taco Bell
Burger King
Wendy's
Sonic Drive-In
Arby's
Dairy Queen
Jack in the Box
Whataburger
Hardee's
Zaxby's
Culver's
Five Guys
Carl's Jr.
Checkers/ Rally's
Sandwich
Subway
Jimmy John's
Jersey Mike's
Firehouse Subs
Sub-Sandwich
Starbucks
Dunkin Donuts
Krispy Kreme
Tim Horton's
Coffee/Bakery
Domino's
Pizza Hut
Little Caesars
Papa John's
Pizza
KFC
Popeyes
Wingstop
Bojangles'
Church's
Chicken
U.S. System-wide Sales Summary 2011 - 2020 ($'000s)
Includes All $1B+ Chains and Other Select Concepts
2019 2020Annual Growth Rates Segment Market Share
201820162015 20172011 2012 2013 2014
Repor
t Outlin
e
FYE '20/
FYE '19
Compound
Growth '11 - '202020
Change
'20/'19
Change
'20/'11
U.S. System-wide Sales Summary 2011 - 2020 ($'000s)
Includes All $1B+ Chains and Other Select Concepts
2019 2020Annual Growth Rates Segment Market Share
201820162015 20172011 2012 2013 2014
Olive Garden
Applebee's
Buffalo Wild Wings
Chili's Grill & Bar
Texas Roadhouse
Outback
Red Lobster
Cheesecake Factory
LongHorn
Red Robin
BJ's Restaurants
T.G.I. Friday's
Casual
Panera Bread
Chipotle
Qdoba
Moe's Southwest Grill
Corner Bakery Café
Fast Casual
IHOP
Denny's
Cracker Barrel
Golden Corral
Bob Evans
Perkins
Family
$1B+ QSR Total
$1B+ FSR Total
$1B+ Chains Total
Restaurant Industry
RR estimateRep
ort O
utline
Data, Analysis & Insight for a Stronger Industry Building Bridges between Franchisees, Franchisors & Financiers
IDR: Unit & Sales Growth 2021 Source: RR Estimates Page 12
Systemwide Sales & Market Share Trends
➢
➢
➢
Repor
t Outlin
e
Visit www.chainrestaurantdata.com or contact us at
(203) 829-9005 or [email protected] to:• Ask us about custom research projects
• Inquire about RR Thermometer email marketing opportunities
Copyright: This Restaurant Research LLC document is copyrighted material. Due to the No Electronic Theft (NET) Act of
1997, electronic forwarding or other forms of redistribution, without the express permission of Restaurant Research LLC, are
violations of law and could be subject to fines of up to $250,000 and up to five years of imprisonment, even when no financial
gain or commercial advantage accrues to the forwarder/re-distributor. Copyright 2021 Restaurant Research® LLC. All rights
reserved.
Sources: All data represents RR estimates which are derived from various private and public sources.
Disclosure: Restaurant Research LLC often sells report subscriptions to concepts under our coverage.
Disclaimer of Liability: Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources Restaurant Research® LLC
believes to be reliable, RR does not guarantee its accuracy. The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice
and in no case can be considered as an offer or solicitation with regard to the purchase or sales of any securities. Restaurant
Research’s analyses and opinions are not a guarantee of the future performance of any company or individual franchisee.
RR disclaims all liability for any misstatements or omissions that occur in the publication of this report. In making this report
available, no client, advisory, fiduciary or professional relationship is implied or established. This report is intended to provide
an overview of the restaurant industry, but cannot be used as a substitute for independent investigations and sound business
judgment.
Repor
t Outlin
e