Daoud Adel Financial Crisis 2008 and Child Poverty

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    Impact of the 2008 financial crisis on child

    poverty in developing countries

    a research proposal

    Comment from the author: This is a research proposal. Thereader of this draft is welcome to comment on and come withsuggestions in order to improve any parts of this proposal.

    Adel Daoud, PhDDepartment of Sociology,University of Gothenburg

    Box 720405 30 Gteborg, SWEDEN

    Visiting address:Sprngkullsgatan 25, room F411

    +46 031-786 47 [email protected]

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    1 Purpose and aimsOver half of the children in developing countries (under five years), about one billion, are

    severely deprived (Gordon et al. 2003, p. 10; Nandy 2009). A number of developing countrieshave made considerable social and economic progress over the last decades (Velde 2008) butprogress seems to have been abruptly halted by the global financial crises of 2008 a crisisthat developing countries had no part to play in but have been severally affected by it. Thegeneral aim of this project is to analyse to what extent the global financial crises has affectedsocioeconomic conditions in these countries, with a particular focus on situation of children.

    To combat poverty we need to understand the mechanisms of the current globaleconomic and political order. Many industrialised countries, especially European, have beenseverely impaired by the 2008 US subprime crisis via so called financial contagion (Fligsteinand Habinek 2011). Many countries economic and fiscal status has been detrimentallyaffected by the current situation, which has resulted in sovereign debt crises in Iceland,Ireland, Portugal, and now Greece; other countries may follow. European unemployment rateshave increased in all affected countries which consequently have resulted in increased relativepoverty and disparity. Some argue that this crisis has affected developing countries even moreprofoundly (e.g. Gurtner 2010; Khow 2009; ODI 2009). Thus, what are the impacts upon thedeveloping world? The research questions are:

    (a)Reinvestigating the effect of the crisis on country level: In which way has the globalfinancial crisis affected developing countries? Research shows that various countrieshave been susceptible in different ways, but is it possible to identify more specificpolitical economic conditions that determine this susceptibility? Some relevant conditions

    that need to be studied further are international aid, economic development, proximity tothe area of effect of the crisis, form of government as well as quality of government.(b)Transmissionfrom country to child: Given the first question, the project will seek to

    identify country mechanisms that account for transmitting the effect of the crisis down toindividual level, namely, childrens living conditions (main focus is children under fiveyears). How has child poverty developed post-crisis (after 2008) compared to pre-crisisperiod (1990-2008), controlled for variation in central factors (e.g. social and politicalconditions)? Which of the eight dimensions of poverty identified by the Bristol methodhas been effected the most (e.g. food, heath, education)?

    (c)Socioeconomic disparity between children: Given the second question, this questionentails a stronger focus on childrens condition and variation within this group. How does

    childrens background relate to how the crisis is transmitted? Is boys affected differentlythan girls? Research shows that there is usually a disparity between urban and ruralpopulation, but has this difference increased or decreased after the crisis? These kinds ofquestions will be focused on here.

    These questions will be specified further in each specific research task (see below).The central methodological focus of this project is to use multilevel (longitudinal) statisticalanalysis (Luke 2004) in order to study how institutional and regional variations at a countrylevel explain variation at household and individual level (children). Micro and macro data willmainly cover the period 1990-2012 (see more below). There are only a few studies on childpoverty in the developing world that have linked different analytical levels (viz. country,

    household, individual) in order to conduct systematic comparisons of variation between aswell as within countries. There is one study that is currently conducting large scale systematic

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    statistical analysis of the relationship between governance and child poverty, named Childpoverty and Quality of Governance - a Global Analysis (hereby called, CP-QoG project)funded by the Swedish Research Council, led by Professor Bjrn Hallerd. I am involved inthis project, however, there seems to be few studies as of yet that have linked the impact ofthe global financial crises of 2008 to child poverty in the developing world. This postdoc

    project, which is a spin-off from the CP-QoG project, wants to contribute to ourunderstanding of what effects this kind of economic shocks has on one of the most vulnerablegroup in society.

    2 Survey of the field2.1 Child povertyInternational human rights law and the Convention of the Rights of the Child, recognized byalmost all countries provide a normative framework to national and international anti-povertypolicies. As Minujin et al.argues Child poverty is not only a violation of childrens rights, it

    also leads to adult poverty. In order to realize childrens rights and to tackle poverty, povertyreduction strategies cannot ignore the special needs of children. (2006, p. 497). Hence, evenif it is related to adult poverty, it is important to study child poverty in itself.

    Less than ten years ago the first global estimates of child poverty, children under fiveyears, in developing countries was undertaken (Gordon et al. 2003; UNICEF 2004). Usingwhat has become known as the Bristol method (see below) it was estimated that 56 per cent- more than one billion - children in low and middle income countries suffered from severedeprivation. In a more recent study Nandy (2009) was able to analyse change of global childpoverty between the mid 1990s and the early 2000. The analysis showed a decrease of thepercentage of poor children. However, due to population increase the number of severelydeprived children still exceeded one billion. Both studies also revealed huge differences

    between different regions. More than 80% of the children in Sub-Saharan Africa and SouthAsia were severely deprived. The corresponding figure for East Asia and Pacific were 23%. Itcan also be added that Sub-Saharan Africa was the only region where child poverty did notdecrease between the mid 1990s and early 2000.

    The problem of measurement, however, has been one of the largest issues when itcomes to poverty research, if not the largest (Reddy and Pogge 2009). The probably bestknown measure of global poverty is the World Banks $1 poverty line, i.e., anyone that livesin a household where the daily per capita income is below $1 (in PPP standard) is counted aspoor. This measure is often used but also often criticised (Gordon et al. 2010). Children arenot only dependent on a minimum household income since they can be treated differentlywithin the household, depending on age and gender; they are also highly dependent on a

    functioning government institutions and infrastructure that provides basic resources. Thismultidimensionality is clearly stated in the UNs Millennium Development Goals andreflected in recent developed measures of poverty. Example of such measures, besides of theBristol method, are Alkire and Foster (2009) methodology that for example has been used tocalculate the Multidimensional Poverty Index.

    Most of the international comparative research on child poverty has focused onchildren in the industrialised countries (cf. Hallerd et al. 2006; Nandy 2009, p. 37). Some ofthe few large scale quantitative studies for the developing countries are for exampleMacphersons (1987) early estimates of child poverty, Gordon et al.(2003)study for UNICEFbased on the Bristol deprivation approach, and the Young Lives project (Lyytikinen et al.2006). Besides UNICEFs research, the Young Lives project seems to be one of the few major

    active research projects on child poverty. As mentioned in the introduction the CP-QoGproject is breaking new ground by using the data generated by Gordon et al. using the Bristol

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    method in order to conduct large scale country comparison with respect to the quality ofgovernment. At the current stage this project has produced some preliminary results showingthat there is indeed a difference with regard to this quality, especially between rural and urbanchild poverty (Daoud et al. 2012).

    The Bristol method, designed for cross national comparisons of child poverty, is made

    up of a compilation of eight indicators of severe deprivation covering: food, safe drinkingwater, sanitation facilities, health, shelter, education, information, and access to basic services(Gordon et al. 2010; Gordon et al. 2003; Nandy 2009). The method relates to several of thebasic rights identified by UNHCR, which means that it is normatively anchored in a widelyagreed human rights agenda. For all eight indicators mild, moderate, severe, and extremedeprivation are defined. For example, for food the following criteria were used, going frommild to extreme deprivation: bland diet of poor nutritional value, going hungry on occasion,malnutrition, and starvation. If we seriously want to address child poverty in developingcountries we need to know how economic shocks affect children in these countries. Theglobal financial crisis of 2008 is such an event. This is important, since well-informed policydecisions are depended on systematic knowledge.

    2.2 Financial crises, developing countries, and childrenThe US subprime financial crises turned out to be maybe the gravest financial crises since theGreat Depression in the 1930s (Gurtner 2010; Nabli 2011). The peak and thus the burst of thecrises is set to 2008, with default of small and large banks such as Lehman Brothers (Beckert2010; Swedberg 2010), worldwide stock market crashes, and souring of house markets, with aresult of global economic insecurity. There are a number of ways the financial crises couldhave been transmitted to developing countries (Toporowski 2009). Firstly, there is thefinancial contagion mechanism, which means that the crisis spilled over via the globalfinancial markets. For example, when the US stock market fell about 12 percent in one of theworst weeks in the crises, the emerging market index (includes Brazil, India and China) fell

    23 percent that same week (Velde 2008, p. 3). This has had significant effect on the banksector and access to credit for investments. Secondly, the crisis has had a significant impacton developing countries that is heavily export-dependent. Zambian, for example, lost 27percent of its jobs in the mining sector in 2008 (Green 2009). Cambodia construction sectorhad lost about 5 percent of its jobs (ODI 2009, p. 1). This has occurred because of fallingdemand from industrialized countries. Thirdly, there is the risk or reduced international aidand remittances. It seems that aid has yet not decreased during 2008-2009 but there is aincreased risk that they will do you over the coming because of worsen fiscal position ofmany industrialized countries, not at least the European debt problem (Gurtner 2010) as wellas increased unemployment among immigrants living in industrialized countries which willthen have less incentive to send money to their families. The relative impact between these

    transmission sources needs to be accounted for; this project will contribute to thatBy mid 2009 there have been some signs of recovery for large countries, particularly

    China, India, and Brazil, but several reports show that the effects of the crises will beprolonged and thus the recovery may take longer time for the majority of the developing andtransition countries (Arias-Vazquez et al. 2011; Gurtner 2010; Khow 2009; Toporowski2009); developing countries refers to low and middle income countries as defined by theWorld Bank (Nabli 2011). This means that the global crises did not impact all regions orcountries in the same way and at the same scale. Central Asia was hit hardest in terms ofaverage GDP growth, it plummeted from 6 percent in 2008 to a 3 percent contraction in 2009;this lead to a considerable increase in unemployment in the region (from 6 percent 2008 toabout 8 percent 2010). Latin America also had a plummet in GDP growth but the effects onearning were sharper than the effects on unemployment rate (from 4 percent 2008 to a 1

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    percent contraction 2010). East Asian change in employment rates by contrast remainedrelatively stable (from 2 percent 2008 to 1 percent 2010); on the other hand earnings growthfell dramatically (from 17 percent 2008 to 6 percent 2010). Interestingly, Sub-Saharan Africamaintained the same GDP growth rate 2010 compared to 2008, with increased earningsgrowth (from a contraction of 2 percent 2008 to 6 percent 2010) (Arias-Vazquez et al. 2011).

    Accordingly, different regions were hit in different ways but all with clear effects on the realeconomy, directly targeting not only middle income households but also low income andvulnerable households, ultimately children. Hence, large part of the research however stillfocuses on effects on a macro level, less is known about the micro level (children).

    There is some research that has focused on childrens situation specifically. UNICEFhas been involved in hosting at least two conferences on the global economic crisis andchildren, one in November 2009 and one in February 2010 (unicef-odiconference.blogspot.com). The focus of both was on how governments could formeffective policy that helped children. In line with this theme some research shows indeed thatpublic expenditure in many developing countries has fallen drastically effecting poorhouseholds and children (Ortiz, Chai and Cummins 2011). Similar conclusions was reached in

    regional and country specific studies (e.g. Antwi-Asare et al. 2010; Cockburn, Fofana andTiberti 2010). Other studies have focuses on the effects of variation in food prices, schoolenrolment, and labour market, on childrens situation (see e.g. Harper et al. 2009; Mendoza2009; Singh et al. 2009). Nevertheless, the current research on children and crisis tends tofocus on specific regions or countries and little seems to have been done on large scalecomparisons, something this project wants to contribute to.

    2.3 Macro and Micro dataThere is today an abundance of high quality data covering many dimensions of global childpoverty as well as the global financial crisis of 2008. The main micro data sources for largescale statistical comparisons about childrens condition in the developing world are assembled

    by the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS; http://www.measuredhs.com/) plus theMultiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS; http://www.childinfo.org). Data from these sourcesare openly distributed and easily accessible. The DHS has been conducted since 1984 and isnow running its fifth wave of surveys. Up to date more than 300 DHS and MICS surveys havebeen carried out in 115 low and middle income countries. In about 30 countries surveys hasbeen repeated at least four times covering a period of about 15 to 20 years, with new databeing collected till at least 2013. Sample sizes vary between countries and between surveys.These surveys are nationally representative with large sample sizes (usually between 5000-30000 households). MICS was initiated by UNICEF in the 1990s as a tool to track progresstowards the goal set by the 1990 World Summit for Children. In several countries both DHSand MICS have been conducted but usually not during the same time period. Both DHS and

    MICS uses standardized questionnaires and methodologies, and multi stage random clustersampling. The data seems to hold relatively high quality (Boerma 1996) and gives a uniqueopportunity to conduct large scale statistical and thus comparative analysis of the majority ofall developing countries concurrently. This is also the data that the Bristol team uses.

    Most of the macro data on the financial crises and its effects on various countries willbe collected from World Economic Outlook Databases, produced by the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF), World Development Indicators and on aid fromAidflows, World Bank.Data on social policy will be collected from the Quality of Governance database, QoGinstitute, University of Gothenburg. The QoG data covers 194 countries and is probably themost complete existing database on social policy and quality of government (Holmberg,Rothstein and Nasiritousi 2009). In order to enable an analysis of the issues raised in thisproject, I will need to merge data about the financial crises with data on child poverty.

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    Processed and harmonized data on child poverty will be readily available by the second halfof 2012 generated via the CP-QoG project.

    3 Project descriptionAccordingly, my aim is to merge existing micro and macro data in order to form the empiricalfoundation for this project. As mentioned above, some of the macro and micro data willalready have been produced in the CP-QoG. The Bristol team (lead by professor DaveGordon, Townsend Centre for International Poverty Research) has already harmonized datacovering the period 1990-2005. Harmonization of data for the period 2005-2012 will beconducted by the CP-QoG project in cooperation with the Bristol team. This data will thenamong other things be used to estimate global child poverty for this period. Accordingly, whatmainly needs to be done in this post-doc project from a data preparation perspective is toassemble financially relevant data related to the 2008 financial crises and merge it with theCP-QoG data. The basic idea is to compare pre-crisis levels (1990-2008) with post-crisis-levels (2008-2012), with a number of control variables at higher (unit) levels of analysis.

    These variables will be defined and derived from economic sociological theory (cf. Beckert2010;Fligstein and Habinek 2011; Swedberg 2010). The project and the data will have thefollowing design in order to investigate the three research question articulated in thebeginning of this application:

    Level 1: Children are the basic unit of analysis. Eight indicators will be used tomeasure the different dimensions of absolute child poverty (following the Bristol method):access to food, water, sanitation, heath, shelter, education, information, and basic services. Itis down to this level that this project will investigate if there are any significant variations thatcan be observed due to the 2008 crises. Which of these dimensions has been hit hardest? Isthere any difference in disparity between children as a group (research question (c))?

    Level 2: Most children are nested within a household. Children have different needs

    compared to adults and resources are not distributed evenly between the members of ahousehold (e.g. between boys and girls, depending on age). Research shows that thehousehold is in many aspects an important level to control for: that is, to what degree arechildren directly affected by socioeconomic changes in household conditions? To what degreecan they access public goods without relying on their parents (as food, education, health etc.)?

    Level 3: Households are based within geographic regions within a country. There areoften large variations between regions when it comes to infrastructural and institutionalconditions affecting poverty. There are also systematic differences between urban and ruralareas (Daoud et al. 2012), which needs to be accounted for.

    Level 4: Regions in turn are located within a country. Previous research shows thatconditions on the country level have large explanatory power in order to understand how the

    financial crisis was transmitted. Some countries are export dependent, other are largelydependent on aid and remittances. As of yet, it seems that export dependent countries havebeen hit harder. Nevertheless, the main task at this level of analysis is to sort out whatsocioeconomic variations can be observed between countries ((research question (a)), andhow that variation can be linked to lower level of analysis in order to identify how the crisistransmitted from countries to children (research question (b)). This will require anidentification of the chain of causality from this level via the other levels down to the first.

    This project will utilize both longitudinal and cross-sectional multilevel modeling inorder to analyze the impact of the relatively independent causal influences that exist at thedifferent levels (Luke 2004). An important feature of this kind of modelling is that it allows

    for variance decomposition into within countries and between countries. Longitudinalmultilevel models will be used to sort out changes over time within countries. Such design

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    will be used since the same country at two different points in time may be much morecomparable than two different countries in terms of unmeasured confounders such as history.

    3.1 Time plan and research tasks6-8 monthsData preparation

    1. Define relevant variables and prepare a harmonized database with key indicators ofthe financial crisis of 2008. Data will be assembled from IMF, World Bank, and QoG(See section on micro and macro data above).

    7-13 monthsCross-sectional analyses1. Conduct cross-sectional multilevel analysis of the general relationship between the

    crisis and absolute child poverty in order to find preliminary indicators of how thefinancial crisis may have affected child poverty in the developing world. Both pre-crisis and post-crisis figures will be analysed but only separatelyconcurrent analyseswill be done in the third year.

    2. Conduct preliminary cross-sectional multilevel analysis of each separate eightdeprivations of child poverty and their relationship to the crisis.

    3. One of the main purposes of these cross-sectional analyses is to provide testedindicators for the longitudinal analyses, which will be done in year three.

    12-24 monthsLongitudinal analyses

    1. As new data is made available, there will possibly be a need to update the databasethat this project has prepared. Some research time is given to do this.

    2. The main analytical effort is to analyse to what degree changes and variations due tothe crisis on the macro levels is related to changes of child poverty at the micro level,over time. These change will be studied (1) for each of the eight deprivations (2)overall child poverty rates.

    I estimate that at least four to six high quality articles will be produced for publication.

    Since this project is of value for an international audience, the produced articles will betargeted to international peer-review journals.

    4 Preliminary results and collaborationMy previous work in the PhD thesis (2006-2011) focused on an empirically informed analysisof the concept of resource scarcity in both economics and sociology (Daoud 2011). In thatproject I focused on issues related to famine, hunger and poverty. One of the main results wasthat deprivation can occur without any resource scarcity, instead other socioeconomic factorsplayed a central explanatory roll (see Daoud articles in appendix c). The PhD project hasincreased substantially my interest for issues in political economy, not at least poverty issues

    which have lead me to the CP-QoG project. To reiterate, I am currently involved in a projectfunded by the Swedish Research Council, namely The Child Poverty and Quality ofGovernance a Global Analysis (CP-QoG project), led by Professor Bjrn Hallerd,University of Gothenburg. This post-doc proposal is a spin-off from that project. The CP-QoGproject involves two central partners; namely, the Townsend Center for international povertyresearch located in Bristol and directed by Professor Dave Gordon and The QoG institute atUniversity of Gothenburg, lead by Professor Bo Rothstein. My participation is required overthree years at a rate of 75%. During the beginning of 2012 I have been at The TownsendCenter for international poverty research in order to continue the harmonization work that theBristol team began for DHS and MICS data. I am also expected to participate in the statisticalmultilevel analyses that will be conducted later on in this project. My work in the CP-QoG

    project will provide me with the necessary knowledge methodological and theoreticalexpertise of child poverty (see e.g. Daoud et al. 2012).

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    5 Significance of the projectFirstly, there is a moral imperative to stop poverty and child poverty in particular. To do thatwe need more and better knowledge not only about socioeconomic development, politicalinstitutions effect on child poverty but also how shocks in the economy effects it additionally, we need to know more about how these shocks correlate with development and

    institutional conditions. Secondly, it is also about value for money. Sweden allocatesomewhat more than one per cent of GDP to international aid, which equals to about 3.8% (30billion SEK) of total state budget expenditure. It is important that this amount of money isused in an efficient way. One of the central questions in this project is whether internationalaid has helped developing countries to couple with the crisis better than comparable countriesthat receives less aid. This project will thus provide systematic analyses of this question whichcan inform policy makers, governments and aid organizations.

    Thirdly, this project will provide analyses of the global macro-micro link on how thecrisis has transmitted from country level to household to children. The studies that do indeedfocus on developing countries have focused mainly on the macro picture, with no or very littlesystematically collected empirical evidence about how such a grand crisis effects childrens

    conditions. This project will change this with both cross-sectional and longitudinal studies.Fourthly, this project will give an empirically informed theoretical input on the

    relationship between the economy and society on two central topics, namely poverty andfinancial crisis. Economists tend to mainly focus on economic factors in analysing crisis or

    poverty, the World Banks $1 poverty line is such an example. Sociologist on the other handtends to mainly focus on sociocultural and historical differences, disregarding economicfactors. This project will bridge this divide using theories from new approaches in economicsociology and political economy. Lastly, on a personal level, this project will enable me tobreak new ground within my field of interests. I will both develop my research skills as wellas engage with a wide international network of excellence in research (see appendix z).

    6 Ethical considerationsAccess to the otherwise freely available micro-data DHS and MICS is conditioned to approveto not distribute the data openly, the computer needs to be secured, and any articles producedneeds to be sent to involved organizations for archiving. In any other case, the ethical aspectsof this project are secured. Micro-data used by the project do not contain information thatmakes it possible to identify specific individuals (observe, that there indeed are geo-taggedand HIV variables available but these will not be used by this project). Data will only bepresented in statistical forms.

    7 Referenceslkire, Sabina, and J Foster. 2009. "Counting and Multidimensional Poverty " in The Poorest and Hungry:

    Assessement, Analysis and Actions, edited by J von Braun. Wasington D.C.: International Food PolicyResearch Institute.

    Antwi-Asare, Theodore, John Cockburn, Edgar A. Cooke, Ismal Fofana, Luca Tiberti, and Daniel K. Twerefou.2010. "Simulating the Impact of the Global Economic Crisis and Policy Responses on Children inGhana."Innocenti Working Paper, UNICEF.

    Arias-Vazquez, Javier, Gladys Lopez-Acevedo, Lucia Madrigal, and David Newhouse. 2011. JobTrends:Human Developmen Network and Poverty reduction & Equirty.

    Beckert, Jens. 2010. "The Financial Crisis - a Crisis of Trust." In: Jahresbericht 2009 der Max-Planck-Gesellschaft zur Frderung der Wissenschaften 14-23.

    Boerma, J. Ties. 1996. "Child Surivial in Developing Countries: Can Demographic and Health Surveys Help toUnderstand the Determinants?". Amsterdam: Royal Tropical Institute.

    Cockburn, John, Ismal Fofana, and and Luca Tiberti. 2010. "Simulating the Impact of the Global EconomicCrisis and Policy Responses on Children in West and Central Africa." UNICEF.

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    Daoud, Adel. 2011. "Scarcity, Abundance, and Sufficiency: Contributions to Social and Economic Theory." inGothenburg Studies in Sociology. Gteborg: University of Gothenburg

    Daoud, Adel, Dave Gordon, Bjrn Hallerd, Shailen Nandy, and (alphabetic order). 2012. "A Global Look onChild Poverty and Quality of Government a Mixed Model Analysis of a Million Children in 34Developing Countries." Working paper, University of Gothenburg.

    Fligstein, Neil, and Jacob Habinek. 2011. "This Time Its Different: The Spread of the Worldwide Financial

    Crisis, 2007-2010." Working paper: University of Califorina, Berkeley. .Gordon, David, Shailen Nandy, Christina Pantazis, and Simon Pemberton. 2010. "Measuring Child Poverty andDeprivation." in Townsen Center for International Poverty Research.

    Gordon, David, Shailen Nandy, Christina Pantazis, Simon Pemberton, and Peter Townsend. 2003. Child Povertyin the Developing World. Bristol, UK: Polity Press.

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    Hallerd, Bjrn, Daniel Larsson, David Gordon, and Veli-Matti Ritakallio. 2006. "Relative Deprivation: AComparative Analysis of Britain, Finland and Sweden."Journal of European Social Policy 16:328-345.

    Harper, Caroline, Nicola Jones, Andy McKay, and Jessica Espey. 2009. "Children in Times of Economic Crisis:Past Lessons, Future Policies." Overseas Development Institute, Backround Note.

    Holmberg, S., B. Rothstein, and N. Nasiritousi. 2009. "Quality of Government: What You Get." Annual Reviewof Political Science 12:135-161.

    Khow, Martin. 2009. "Effects of the Global Economic Crisis on Developing Countries." SOUTH BULLETIN.Luke, Douglas A. 2004.Multilevel Modeling. Thousand Oaks, Calif.: Sage.Lyytikinen, Minna, Nicola Jones, Sharon Huttly, and Tanya Abramsky. 2006. "Childhood Poverty, Basic

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    Minujin, Alberto, Enrique Delamonica, Alejandra Davidziuk, and Edward D. Gonzalez. 2006. "The Definition ofChild Poverty: A Discussion of Concepts and Measurements." Environment and Urbanization 18:481-

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    Century. Bristol: School for Policy Studies (dissertation), Universtiy of Bristol.ODI. 2009. "The Global Financial Crisis: Poverty and Social Protection." Overseas Development Institute,

    Briefing paper.Ortiz, Isabel, Jingqing Chai, and Matthew Cummins. 2011. "Austerity Measures Threaten Children and Poor

    Households: Recent Evidence in Public Expenditures from 128 Developing Countries." SOCIAL ANDECONOMIC POLICY, WORKING PAPER - UNICEF.

    Reddy, Sanjay, and Thomas Pogge. 2009. "How Not to Count the Poor." in Debates in the Measurement ofPoverty edited by Joseph Stiglitz, Sudhir Anand, and Paul Segal. Oxford Oxford University Press.

    Singh, Anupama Rao, Mahesh Patel, Noeleen Heyzer, Enkhbold Miyegombo, Gabriele Khler, Daniel Toole,and Ajay Chhibber. 2009. "Global Social Policy Forum: Children and the Economic Crisis." Global

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    Toporowski, J. 2009. "How the Global Crisis Is Transmitted to Developing Countries."Development Viewpoint.UNICEF. 2004. "State of the Worlds Children: Gilrs, Education and Development." New York: The United

    Nations Children's Fund.Velde, Dirk Willem te. 2008. "The Global Financial Crisis and Developing Countries: Which Countries Are at

    Risk and What Can Be Done?" Overseas Development Institute, Backround Note.