Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

Dan Barclay

November 2005

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan

Realignment, 1952-2004

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

• So there’s this paper that models political realignment on a two-dimensional issues axis.

• Problem is, it doesn’t have any data to back it up.

• I’ll be bringing in data to quantify the model.

Abstract

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

An Optical Depiction

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

Nifty Graph

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

Nifty Graph

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

Literature Review

• Periodicity– Adams (1918): 12-year cycles from 1776-1812– Schlesinger, Sr. (1949): Projected cycles from

1947-1962, 1962-1978, 1978-1993• “Critical elections”

– Certain elections such as 1896 and 1932 are “flash points” that see abrupt changes in ideologies

– Discontinuous model

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

Literature Review II: First Blood

• Attempted link to congressional politics– Brady (1982): Congressional policy changes can

be explained through realignment theory.– “Our field isn’t credible, so let’s try to support it

with one that is!”– Epic failure

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

Literature Review III: Reign of Chaos

• The public opinion challenge– Stimson (1998): When you actually look at the

data, realignment theory doesn’t work at all. You people are dumb.

– Mayhew (2002): Yeah, what he said.– Huge pile-on; realignment lies in tatters

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

Literature Review IV: A New Hope

• Maybe realignment theory will work if we use models that are continuous, not discontinuous.– Smith (2002): If we assume the two parties have

gradually traded places in the past few decades, public opinion data doesn’t tear us a new one.

– Miller and Schofield (2003): The paper I’m plagiarizing building upon

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

Miller and Schofield (2003)• Theory

– Regressions show that the two parties have gradually changed places, which can’t be accounted for by white noise and must therefore be due to realignment factors

• Mechanism– Each party continually tries to outflank the other to

appeal to groups of swing voters• Two dimensions, economic and social

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

That Nifty Graph Again

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

1896

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

1932-60

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

1960-64

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

1964-68

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

2005

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

My Project

• Quantify Schofield and Miller– Roll call data = relative density of each quadrant– Elections data = area occupied by each party– Public opinion data = frontier between the parties– Party platform data = point position of each party

• I code national platforms on a 1 / 0 / -1 basis

• Regress the results• Make projections

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

Validity Problems

• None.

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

Methodology

• Roll call: Use the data I already have• Elections: Acquire from NES• Public opinion: Acquire from NES• Party platforms: Code the data I already have• Regression: Use STATA

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

• Sampling error, from public opinion data

• Personal bias, from coding party platforms

• 1952-2004 time period dictated by data availability

Validity Problems

Dan Barclay

Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004

Methodology

• Roll call: Use the data I already have• Elections: Acquire from NES• Public opinion: Acquire from NES• Party platforms: Code the data I already have• Regression: Use STATA

– Arbitrary designation of social issues as the independent variable and economic issues as the dependent variable