Arab Climate Resilience InitiativeFirst Regional Consultation Meeting

“Climate Change Impacts in the Arab Region: Water Scarcity, Drought and Population Mobility”

Damascus – Syrian Arab Republic15-16 September 2010

By

Balgis Osman-Elasha (PhD)

Regional Synopsis of Adaptation to Climate Change

Presentation outline

Adaptation Efforts in the region

Vulnerability and Adaptation

Conclusions

Background

Vulnerability (IPCC definition) The degree to which a system is

susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of CC including climate variability & extremes.

It is a function of the magnitude, and rate of change to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

Background

Risk : is the overlay of hazard and vulnerability Disasters : are the realisation of risk

HAZARD

RISK

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

Drought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Coastal 5m Agriculture

Malawi Bangladesh PhilippinesAll low-lying Island

StatesAll low-lying Island

States Sudan

Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Netherlands Senegal

Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Japan Zimbabwe

India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Bangladesh Mali

Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Philippines Zambia

Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Morocco

Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Brazil Niger

Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico Venezuela India

Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Senegal Malawi

Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Fiji Algeria

Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Vietnam Ethiopia

Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Denmark Pakistan

Middle Income

Low Income Source: World Bank

Developing Countries Are Most At Risk

Many countries face varying degrees of what we can call (the impacts of (multiple stressors) which can compound the impacts climate variability and change example:• Chronic poverty

• Increasing population

• Weak institutions and physical infrastructure

• Low access to technology and information,

• Political and social Instability

• Lack of political commitments, access to resources and management capabilities

• High illiteracy rates and lack of skills

• etc….

Non-climate factors leading to vulnerability in the region

IPCC projected large reductions in rainfall in N. Africa and Mediterranean

Annual precipitation changes over Africa between 1980-1999 & 2080-2099 from MMD-A1B simulations, mean for 21 models

IPCC Projections

While many parts of the Arab region particularly MENA will be facing a more frequent drought condition parts of the region such as Sudan and Yemen are projected to receive an increasing amount of rainfall and potential floods

(high uncertainty and increasing variability). (Brooks, 2007),

It is important to note that

Food insecurity: Food production would face an increased threat, arising from and increasing aridity and changes in the growing seasons and reduced agricultural yields.

increased poverty, undermining economic development, & delay or prevent the realization of the MDGs.

World Bank President Robert Zoellick’s at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2007 in Bali

called climate change a “development, economic, and investment challenge.”

Resulting Impacts (1)

Under a temperature increase of 1°C-3°C. Sea level rise poses a risk to low-lying coastal areas in Kuwait, Qatar, Libya, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and particularly to Egypt

This along with storm surges present huge threats to buildings and infrastructure in the region consequently, transportation systems, water and energy supplies, recreational tourism beach facilities and wastewater networks, will be at risk

Higher intensity and frequency of hot days will increase the demand for energy and impact the power generation

Potential Impacts (2)

Development

AdaptationMitigation

Low Carbon Dev

Climate Resilient

Dev

Climate Proofing

Climate Compatible

Development

The solution

Adaptation refers to all those responses to climate change that may be used to reduce vulnerability or to actions designed to take advantage of new opportunities that may arise as a result of climate change

Adaptation Concept

Type of adaptation

Characteristics Example

Autonomous adaptation

Adaptation that takes place naturally or not as a conscious response to climate change

Natural responses of plant species in response to e.g. drought or to seasonal changes (earlier spring)- autonomous farming practices (change sowing dates

Building adaptive capacity

Creating the information and conditions /regulatory institutional and managerial that enable adaptation to actions to be undertaken -Education and capacity-building

Climate change research funding- awareness creation among farmers- -developing policy support tools

Taking adaptive measure

Taking actions that help reduce vulnerability to climate risk or exploit opportunities

Creating water collection and storage facilities – introducing new crop varieties- resource management tools and infrastructure

Types of adaptation

In general terms ----------The ability of communities to adapt to climate change is determined by their level of development, their access to resources and their scientific and technical skills and capacities.

Adaptation Determinants (1)

For adaptation to be effective in addressing country/community levels impacts, it must:• progress at several levels simultaneously from local

to national to global;

• For the local and national efforts to be more effective it needs to be supported by enabling national policies, regulations and institutional setups – this should be supported by regional & international agreements.

Adaptation Determinants (2)

a) Information, as effective adaptation measures must be based on

accurate data and information (nature and extend of likely impacts - cost and efficacy of possible response measures).

b) Capacity: Technical and technological. c) Financial Resources: to ensure the provision of hardware and

software to deal with adaptation. d) Institutions— Adaptation responses cut across a number of

institutions need for coordination of comprehensive strategies and ensure sustainability

e) Technology; technology for adaptation is equally important as for mitigation, there is even greater need for adaptive technology that is suited to the specific needs and conditions.

Adaptation Determinants (2)

Essential adaptation development elements include

FAO highlighted the importance of policy reforms. In addition it emphasizes the importance of the following measures related to agriculture:• Development of climate change early warning systems,

• disaster risk management, • Increasing rural investments:• incentives to adopt better agricultural and land use

practices and crop insurance• building capacity and awareness • provision of supportive services such as extension

and research • data collection, monitoring, analysis& dissemination.

) Adaptation Determinants (3)

Adaptation efforts in the region

Adaptation Gap in the region

Fragmented efforts at national levels

No coordinated regional or sub-regional adaptation approach

The AFED Report, 2009 proposed a number of adaptation measures for different sectors

a. Water Resources: Improve efficiency, especially in irrigation, and develop new water resources including innovative desalination technologies.

b. Food Production: Develop new varieties of crops that can adapt to higher temperatures and different spans of seasons,

c. Sea Level Rise: Adapt land use regulations to the potential rise in sea level, by increasing the minimum clear distance required between buildings and shoreline.

d. Infrastructure and buildings: Choice of construction materials and techniques used for buildings, roads, and utility

e. Biodiversity: develop mechanisms for coordinating conservation actions across political boundaries and agency jurisdiction,

f. Human Health: Adapt human health systems and prepare them to respond to the consequences of climate change, .

g. Tourism: Explore and promote options for alternative tourism less vulnerable to climate variability, such as cultural tourism.

Addressing adaptation in the region: some examples

Some countries highlighted in their NCs and NAPAs, adaptation options and/or strategies for different sectors e.g.:

Agriculture: development of drought-tolerant crops, early warning systems, erosion control, training farmers

Health: improvement of the health care system,Forest: enhancement of forest management,Tourism: protection of tourism infrastructure, Biodiversity: strengthening of environmental

legislation and promotion of nature conservation.

Other identified adaptation priorities

This is because the majority of the Arab countries are considered among the world‘s most water scarce, and in many places demand for water already exceeds supply.

Climate change scenarios for water in the Arab region cannot be viewed in isolation, as rapid population growth, industrial development, urbanization and increasing demand for irrigation exert additional pressures on water resources.

Adaptation priorities in Arab countries converge over water resources(1)

0 10 20 30 40

Middle East & North Africa

South Asia

Western Europe

East Asia & Pacific (incl. Japan&Koreas)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Europe & Central Asia

North America

Latin America & Caribbean

Australia & New Zealand

1000 m^3 / year

Annual renewable water resources per capita

The challenge of making an optimal water allocation for a growing number of competing water management options (e.g. agriculture, public consumption, industry, hydro-energy, ecosystems, etc.) under a changing climate system places a heavy burden on water managers.

The fact that the water sector is more than any other sector requires cooperation across various institutions and systematic updating. This particularly important for Trans-boundary water resources such as Nile Basin, which is shared between 0 nations -Cooperation is critical for sustainable management of water resources (Nile Basin Initiative)

Adaptation priorities in Arab countries converge over water resources (2)

Use of supplementary irrigation (reduce high dependency on rain.

Integrated water management Tapping different available sources (e.g.

desalinization, recycling) Harvesting and storage Efficiency of water use and demand control

We should not neglect water quality problems associated with CC

Adaptation measures identified for water resources under NCs

To address this region specific concerns:- A coordinated effort of capacity building,

training, research, & development is required.• A region-wide monitoring, making available

reliable observations and transforming them into useful information for a wide spectrum stakeholders particularly policy makers.

Addressing adaptation in the region: what needs to be done??

Plan adaptive strategies at the country and regional levels and work towards strengthening national capacities.

It is equally important that Arabic governments integrate climate risk-based approaches, within water policy frameworks.

Addressing adaptation in the region: what

needs to be done??

Adaptation at one scale/time or space could lead to mal adaptation at another scale/time or space.

E.g. dams at up-stream- water constraints at downstream.

Intensification of production –extraction of ground water –could impact future generation?

Agric inputs-impacts on water quality

Mal Adaptation

Many of the Arab countries are bordered or share resources with non-Arabic countries-some these countries don’t enjoy friendly relationships –

need to think of developing adaptation under antagonistic atmosphere.

Adaptation under a situation of hostility

•Regional cooperation in adaptation efforts should be fostered through the adoption of regional strategies and action plans that address CC concerns, and through the development of a regional early warning system for forecasts, risk assessment and monitoring of extreme events. An enhanced cooperation, development & implementation of integrated regional water management between countries sharing water sources - both surface and groundwater •Empowerment of communities,– particularly women and other vulnerable groups .•Involving civil societies and private sector

Conclusions