12
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY 1 December 2016 | 7:30 AM Daily Market Commentary | 1 December 2016 Page 1 of 12 For any queries, please contact: Mohammed Yaseen Nalla, CFA | [email protected] Reezwana Sumad | [email protected] Charts of the day| Currencies | Commodities | Fixed income & interest rates | Equities | Equity derivatives | Economics|*Foreign flows | JSE performance | LDT | Economic calendar| Other reports #Contacts Click on any of the above links to access your point of interest (* when available) Key daily driver Nedbank CIB Market Commentary | [email protected] | +27 11 295 5430 SNIPPETS (Charts of the day) SA trade balance shifts into deficit in October as exports slump, imports rise, deficit likely to deteriorate into year-end (Currencies) Rand falters as short term optimism eased amid economic data, euro weighed by upcoming Italian referendum, eyes on NFP tomorrow (Equities) Top 40 rises 0.2%, led by resource and energy stocks; US equities flat to negative despite sharp rallies in energy stocks; Asian markets sharply higher this morning due to oil and gas stocks rallying (Economics) US private payrolls surge in November, PCE rising; Eurozone CPI rises on higher food prices Key overnight factors and upcoming events Nedbank CIB Market Commentary | [email protected] | +27 11 295 5430 Date Region Event Actual/expected/prior Implications 25/11 SA Credit rating events -- Fitch downgrade SA outlook to negative while Moody’s remains unchanged at Baa2 (Negative), markets await S&P review on Friday 30/11 SA Trade bal R bn -4.4/-6.7/7.0 Trade account posts deficit in October, exports sharply lower 30/11 US ADP private payrolls 216k/170k/119k Private payrolls being led by service sector employment 01/12 Global Manufacturing PMI’s -- Manufacturing conditions expected to improve marginally globally, Asian PMIs rise this morning Source: Nedbank

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Page 1: DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY - blog.nedbankcib.co.zablog.nedbankcib.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/DailyMarketCom… · next year. CPI remains elevated, and likely to stay close to the

DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY

1 December 2016 | 7:30 AM

Daily Market Commentary | 1 December 2016 Page 1 of 12

For any queries, please contact:

Mohammed Yaseen Nalla, CFA | [email protected] Reezwana Sumad | [email protected]

Charts of the day| Currencies | Commodities | Fixed income & interest rates | Equities | Equity derivatives

| Economics|*Foreign flows | JSE performance | LDT | Economic calendar| Other reports

#Contacts

Click on any of the above links to access your point of interest

(* when available)

Key daily driver

Nedbank CIB Market Commentary | [email protected] | +27 11 295 5430

SNIPPETS

(Charts of the day) SA trade balance shifts into deficit in October as exports slump, imports rise, deficit likely to deteriorate into year-end

(Currencies) Rand falters as short term optimism eased amid economic data, euro weighed by upcoming Italian referendum, eyes on NFP tomorrow

(Equities) Top 40 rises 0.2%, led by resource and energy stocks; US equities flat to negative despite sharp rallies in energy stocks; Asian markets sharply higher this morning due to oil and gas stocks rallying

(Economics) US private payrolls surge in November, PCE rising; Eurozone CPI rises on higher food prices

Key overnight factors and upcoming events

Nedbank CIB Market Commentary | [email protected] | +27 11 295 5430

Date Region Event Actual/expected/prior Implications

25/11 SA Credit rating events -- Fitch downgrade SA outlook to negative while Moody’s remains unchanged at Baa2 (Negative), markets await S&P review on Friday

30/11 SA Trade bal R bn -4.4/-6.7/7.0 Trade account posts deficit in October, exports sharply lower

30/11 US ADP private payrolls 216k/170k/119k Private payrolls being led by service sector employment

01/12 Global Manufacturing PMI’s -- Manufacturing conditions expected to improve marginally globally, Asian PMIs rise this morning

Source: Nedbank

Page 2: DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY - blog.nedbankcib.co.zablog.nedbankcib.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/DailyMarketCom… · next year. CPI remains elevated, and likely to stay close to the

Daily Market Commentary | 01 December 2016 Page 2 of 12

Charts of the day back to top

Nedbank CIB Market Commentary | [email protected] | +27 11 295 5430

The SA trade balance moved into a deficit of R4.4 billion in October, from a surplus of R7.0 billion in September, marginally better than

forecasts of -R6.7 billion. However, consensus was skewed lower today due to an outlier; up until yesterday Bloomberg consensus was -R4.3

billion.

Exports slumped 11.1% m/m in October, while imports rose 0.4% over the month, resulting in the deficit. Exports declined across the board

and across our major trading partners. Sharp contractions in exports were recorded for vegetable products, precious metals and stones, and

vehicles and transport equipment.

Imports of minerals, chemicals and machinery rose marginally, but this was mainly concentrated in imports from Asia, as imports from the

rest of our major trading partners declined in October. Import demand was weighed down by a sharp decline in vegetable and vehicle

imports, and this is reflected of the subdued local demand conditions.

For the YTD, the trade deficit stands at R14.35 billion, significantly narrower than the R59.5 billion deficit during the same period last year.

The narrower deficit is mainly as a result of a 5.6% increase in exports for the YTD, while imports have remained relatively flat.

Marginal trade deficits are expected in the last few months of the year, and this will likely raise the annual deficit marginally. While

businesses may consider restocking inventories over the festive season, local demand is still very weak, and retail confidence is currently

reflective of this. While the current account deficit is expected to narrow this year, this may not be sustainable over the long term, as SA

remains a net importer, the rand remains vulnerable to weakness and as global demand wanes and trade conditions tighten.

Local growth will likely be constrained by the weak consumer demand backdrop, as Nedbank forecasts 0.3% GDP growth this year and 1%

next year. CPI remains elevated, and likely to stay close to the 6% upper target band over the medium term. The SARB may have reached the

peak in the current hiking cycle, but this is highly dependent on the trajectory of inflation over the next year.

YTD SA exports per product category

Source: SARS

YTD SA imports per product category

Source: SARS

SA trade balance supported by subdued imports recently

Source: Bloomberg, Nedbank

Page 3: DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY - blog.nedbankcib.co.zablog.nedbankcib.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/DailyMarketCom… · next year. CPI remains elevated, and likely to stay close to the

Daily Market Commentary | 01 December 2016 Page 3 of 12

Currencies back to top

Business Banking FX | +27 11 535 4003 | Corporate FX | +2711 535 4002 | Institutional FX | +2711 535 4005

The local trading session found the Rand kick the day off at 13.9500. The Rand was unable to sustain gains post the ANC NEC announcement

that a motion for President Zuma to step down did not succeed. With the political volatility subsiding and focus shifting onto economic data

releases, the local unit found no favour as SA Trade and Budget data disappointed vs positive US ADP employment, US Chicago PMI and

Personal Income. This saw the Rand trade to a high of 14.0575, before closing around similar levels. The New York session saw the Rand

retrace further as it breached the 14.1500 level, with FED speakers suggesting a hike in interest rates is approaching sooner rather than

later. This morning the Rand opens at 14.0400. EURZAR at 14.8800 and GBPZAR at 17.5700.

International markets found the Euro initially trade higher as it touched 1.0666 before closing near the 1.0600 pivot. News concerning Italy

upcoming referendum seems to be negatively weighing on the currency. This morning Euro opens at 1.0600. Cable trading marginally firmer

this morning after closing the day at 1.2453. This morning it opens at 1.2524. Gold traded $11 weaker on the day, closing at $1178.

On the economic data front we have US jobless claims and US ISM manufacturing data. With the last NFP for 2016 on Friday.

Possible trading range: 13.9500-14.2500

*Please note that the sign on the % change reflects the change on the headline number. The narrative indicates the trend direction over the month.

For trade in any of these currencies, contact our FX dealing desks

Majors Last price

-1d

MTD

YTDUSD trend

GBPUSD 1.25 0.22 2.43 -14.99 # USD weakness

EURUSD 1.06 0.08 -3.24 -2.37 # USD strength

USDJPY 114.06 -0.06 8.64 -5.11 # USD strength

USDAUD 1.35 -0.23 2.66 -1.60 # USD strength

Rand crosses Last price

-1d

MTD

YTDZAR trend

USDZAR 14.03 -0.33 3.88 -9.42 # ZAR weakness

GBPZAR 17.57 -0.11 6.39 -22.99 # ZAR weakness

EURZAR 14.88 -0.25 0.52 -11.57 # ZAR weakness

AUDZAR 10.39 -0.10 1.18 -7.92 # ZAR weakness

ZARJPY 8.13 0.26 4.59 4.75 # ZAR strength

African FX Last price

-1d

MTD

YTDZAR trend

ZARMWK (Malaw ian kw acha) 51.70 0.32 -3.05 19.84 # ZAR weakness

ZARBWP (Botsw ana pula) 0.77 -0.07 -1.31 5.60 # ZAR weakness

ZARKES (Kenyan shilling) 7.26 0.32 -3.39 9.85 # ZAR weakness

ZARMUR (Mauritian rupee) 2.57 0.32 -3.25 10.78 # ZAR weakness

ZARNGN (Nigerian naira) 22.34 -0.24 -1.21 73.50 # ZAR weakness

ZARGHS (Ghanian cedi) 0.30 -0.65 3.25 23.85 # ZAR strength

ZARZMW (Zambian kw acha) 0.70 0.63 -0.93 -0.87 # ZAR weakness

ZARMZN (Mozambican metical) 5.29 -0.15 -7.39 70.51 # ZAR weakness

Source: Bloomberg & Nedbank CIB T ime

Month

trend

Month

trend

Month

trend

2016/12/01 07:22

USDZAR

Source: Bloomberg, Nedbank

EUR/USD

Source: Bloomberg, Nedbank

$/R (close, high and low)

R 13.40

R 13.50

R 13.60

R 13.70

R 13.80

R 13.90

R 14.00

R 14.10

R 14.20

R 14.30

11/25 11/28 11/29 11/30 12/01

USDZAR $/R HIGH $/R LOW

€/$ (close, high, low)

$1.05

$1.05

$1.06

$1.06

$1.07

$1.07

11/25 11/28 11/29 11/30 12/01

EURUSD EURUSD High EURUSD Low

Page 4: DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY - blog.nedbankcib.co.zablog.nedbankcib.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/DailyMarketCom… · next year. CPI remains elevated, and likely to stay close to the

Daily Market Commentary | 01 December 2016 Page 4 of 12

Commodities back to top

Nedbank CIB Market Commentary | [email protected] | +27 11 295 5430| +27 11 535 4038

The oil price surged by more than 10% yesterday as OPEC concluded it's meeting by agreeing to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day,

to 32.5 million barrels by January 2017. Libya and Nigeria were exempted, while Iran was given a quota of 3.8 million barrels a day. The

biggest cuts came from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, UAE, Kuwait, with even Russian coming to the table with proposed cuts. The cuts are

expected to continue for the next 6 months. This is likely to be supportive of the oil price over the medium term, if all members keep to

their quotas. However, if US shale producers ramp up production on the back of the higher prices, it would deem the current agreement

ineffective as the supply glut would persist. OPEC meets non-OPEC producers next week in order to discuss further stabilisation efforts.

Gold declined by close to $10/oz. yesterday as the dollar strengthened, however the metal is supported in Asia this morning due to a softer

US dollar. This will likely persist, with gold tracking the dollar’s moves over the medium term, and the gold price is expected to remain in a

bear market on the back of a stronger dollar.

Commodities Last price

-1d

MTD

YTD

Brent near future ($) 52.44 3.90 8.57 40.67 #

WTI crude ($) 49.95 1.03 6.59 34.85 #

Gold spot ($) 1 174.15 -0.07 -7.82 10.54 #

Platinum spot ($) 913.45 0.39 -6.43 2.22 #

SA w hite maize spot (R) 3 759.00 -1.47 0.16 -19.35 #Source: Bloomberg & Nedbank CIB T ime

Month

trend

2016/12/01 07:22

Platinum vs Gold

Source: Bloomberg

Brent Crude vs West Texas Intermediate

Source: Bloomberg

Platinum vs. Gold

$1 156

$1 166

$1 176

$1 186

$1 196

$1 206

$897

$902

$907

$912

$917

$922

$927

$932

$937

25

-No

v 0

9:0

0

25

-No

v 1

4:0

0

25

-No

v 1

9:0

0

28

-No

v 0

2:0

0

28

-No

v 0

7:0

0

28

-No

v 1

2:0

0

28

-No

v 1

7:0

0

28

-No

v 2

2:0

0

29

-No

v 0

3:0

0

29

-No

v 0

8:0

0

29

-No

v 1

3:0

0

29

-No

v 1

8:0

0

29

-No

v 2

3:0

0

30

-No

v 0

4:0

0

30

-No

v 0

9:0

0

30

-No

v 1

4:0

0

30

-No

v 1

9:0

0

01

-De

c 0

0:0

0

01

-De

c 0

5:0

0

PLATINUM - LHS GOLD - RHS

Brent Crude vs West Texas Intermediate

$45.90

$46.90

$47.90

$48.90

$49.90

$50.90

$51.90

$44.70

$45.70

$46.70

$47.70

$48.70

$49.70

25

-No

v 0

9:0

0

25

-No

v 1

4:0

0

25

-No

v 1

9:0

0

28

-No

v 0

4:0

0

28

-No

v 0

9:0

0

28

-No

v 1

4:0

0

28

-No

v 1

9:0

0

29

-No

v 0

1:0

0

29

-No

v 0

6:0

0

29

-No

v 1

1:0

0

29

-No

v 1

6:0

0

29

-No

v 2

1:0

0

30

-No

v 0

3:0

0

30

-No

v 0

8:0

0

30

-No

v 1

3:0

0

30

-No

v 1

8:0

0

30

-No

v 2

3:0

0

01

-De

c 0

5:0

0

WTI - LHS BRENT - RHS

Page 5: DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY - blog.nedbankcib.co.zablog.nedbankcib.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/DailyMarketCom… · next year. CPI remains elevated, and likely to stay close to the

Daily Market Commentary | 01 December 2016 Page 5 of 12

Fixed income and interest rates back to top

Bond flow sales |+2711 535 4021 | Corporate Money Markets | +2711 535 4007 | Business Bank Money Markets | +2711 535 4006

Bonds Last price

Δ

1d

Δ

MTD

Δ

YTD

% bps bps bps

R203-0.8 yrs 7.92 14.88 38.88 -60.72 #

R208-4.3 yrs 8.45 0.20 32.70 -95.60 #

R186-10.1 yrs 9.02 0.10 32.30 -74.10 #

R2048-31.2 yrs 9.76 0.10 38.50 -64.50 #

US 10 yr 2.39 0.81 56.41 12.01 #

UK 10 yr 1.42 3.50 13.90 -27.65 #

German 10 yr 0.28 24.43 68.71 -56.28 #

Japan 10 yr 0.03 12.00 -158.33 -89.43 #

Money Market Last price

Δ

1d

Δ

MTD

Δ

YTD

% bps bps bps

SA repo rate 7.00 0.00 0.00 75.00 #

SA prime rate 10.50 0.00 0.00 75.00 #

SA CPI (MTD = previous month) 6.40 30.00 #

SA 3m JIBAR 7.36 0.00 0.00 73.30 #

SA 3m NCD 7.38 5.00 5.00 77.50 #

SA 6m NCD 7.95 0.00 2.50 43.75 #

SA 12m NCD 8.49 0.00 6.25 5.00 #

US 3m LIBOR 0.93 0.35 4.99 32.15 #

UK 3m LIBOR 0.38 -0.12 -1.91 -20.58 #

Japan 3m LIBOR - 0.10 -0.54 -5.74 -17.38 #Source: Bloomberg & Nedbank CIB T ime

Month

trend

Month

trend

2016/12/01 07:22

FRAs and Swaps Last price

Δ

1d

Δ

MTD

Δ

YTD

% bps bps bps

3X6 FRA 7.44 0.00 3.00 2.50 #

6X9 FRA 7.51 -3.00 7.00 -26.50 #

9X12 FRA 7.56 -7.00 10.00 -69.00 #

18X21 FRA 7.76 0.00 26.00 -125.00 #

SA 2yr Sw ap 7.61 0.00 15.50 -54.60 #

SA 3yr Sw ap 7.74 0.00 21.50 -80.40 #

SA 5yr Sw ap 8.04 0.00 31.00 -95.50 #

SA 10yr Sw ap 8.54 1.50 40.00 -93.00 #

SA 15yr Sw ap 8.68 0.75 45.35 -98.25 #

Spreads Last price

Δ

1d

Δ

MTD

Δ

YTD

% bps bps bps

2v10y - 0.93 -1.50 -24.50 38.40 #

3v10y - 0.78 -1.50 -18.50 12.60 #

R186-R203 1.25 -14.78 -6.58 -13.38 #

R2048-R186 0.73 0.00 6.20 9.60 #

5y-R186 - 0.99 -0.10 -1.30 -21.40 #

10y-R186 - 0.50 1.40 7.70 -18.90 #

15y-R186 - 0.35 0.65 13.05 -24.15 #

SA 5yr CDS spread - basis points 255.67 2.24 11.14 -79.35 #Source: Bloomberg & Nedbank CIB T ime

Month

trend

Month

trend

2016/12/01 07:22

Page 6: DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY - blog.nedbankcib.co.zablog.nedbankcib.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/DailyMarketCom… · next year. CPI remains elevated, and likely to stay close to the

Daily Market Commentary | 01 December 2016 Page 6 of 12

Equities back to top

Cash equities | +2711 535 4030/31

South Africa

The Top 40 ended the day up 0.20% at 4391.40. Sasol gained 4.87%, tracking its global peers higher, after oil prices surged more than 6%,

on reports that OPEC clinched a deal to curtail oil supply. Strength from miners and rand hedges offset the weakness in banks, retailers and

industrials. Amongst other notable movers, Steinhoff lost 4.3%, due to trading ex their dividend. Volumes were above average as a result of

the MSCI index rebalancing. The value at the close was R27.7 Billion and the rand was trading at R14.03 vs the dollar.

UK/Europe

European markets closed firmer on Wednesday, with the energy sector outperforming across Europe. The European oil and gas index

gained 3.4%. In London, Royal Bank of Scotland (-1.4%),underperformed in the banking space, recovering from its worst levels, after failing

the Bank of England’s stress test and was told to boost its capital buffers. Italian banks were strong, with markets players taking advantage

of the recent sell off, which may have been overdone.

USA

US markets closed little changed, with the energy sector leading the market higher. Oil prices surged 9.3% after it was confirmed that OPEC

agreed to cut production. Banking stocks saw solid gains following comments by Steven Mnuchin, Trumps pick for US Treasury Secretary,

that tax reforms and trade pact overhauls would be top priorities of the new administration. Utilities and telecoms lost ground, while US

bond yields rose.

Asia

It was all about oil in Asia this morning, with the Nikkei outperforming in the region, climbing more than 2%. Oil and exploration stocks

outperformed with the mining sector sub index gaining more than 10%. In Honk Kong, apart from the energy sector, transportation stocks

recovered from early morning losses, as concerns that higher oil prices would add to costs, but the strong manufacturing survey helped curb

losses. In Australia, the energy index soared more than 7%, with miners putting in a goof performance as well. BHP Billiton was up 4.3% and

South32 added more than 6%. Real Estate stocks were under pressure after approvals for new homes fell in October.

Developed Markets Last price

-1d

MTD

YTD

Dow Jones 19 123.58 0.01 5.41 9.75 #

Nasdaq 5 323.68 -1.05 2.59 6.32 #

S&P 500 2 198.81 -0.27 3.42 7.58 #

DJ Eurostoxx 50 3 051.61 0.43 -0.12 -6.61 #

DAX 10 640.30 0.19 -0.23 -0.96 #

CAC 4 578.34 0.59 1.53 -1.27 #

FTSE 6 783.79 0.17 -2.45 8.67 #

ASX200 5 500.20 1.10 3.43 3.86 #

Nikkei 225 18 560.23 1.38 6.51 -2.49 #

MSCI World 1 712.09 -0.19 1.25 2.96 #

Emerging Markets Last price

-1d

MTD

YTD

Hang Seng 22 917.18 0.56 -0.08 4.58 #

Shanghai 3 266.28 0.50 5.35 -7.71 #

Brazil Bovespa 61 906.36 1.51 -4.65 42.81 #

India - NSE 26 669.74 0.06 -4.55 2.11 #

Russia Micex 2 104.91 0.87 5.79 19.50 #

MSCI Emerging 862.83 0.51 -4.67 8.65 #

SA Indices Last price

-1d

MTD

YTD

JSE All Share 50 209.43 0.10 -0.75 -0.96 #

Top 40 43 691.42 0.20 -0.75 -4.60 #

Resi 10 33 354.30 2.40 6.85 31.35 #

Indi 25 63 174.73 -0.56 -4.42 -11.96 #

Fini 15 14 626.35 -0.57 1.17 -4.00 #Source: Bloomberg & Nedbank CIB T ime

Month

trend

2016/12/01 07:22

Month

trend

Month

trend

Page 7: DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY - blog.nedbankcib.co.zablog.nedbankcib.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/DailyMarketCom… · next year. CPI remains elevated, and likely to stay close to the

Daily Market Commentary | 01 December 2016 Page 7 of 12

Economics back to top

Nedbank CIB Market Commentary | [email protected] | +27 11 295 5430

US

US ADP private payrolls added 216k jobs to the labour market in November, after the 119k increase in October, well ahead of forecasts of

170k. All of the additions to the labour force was from the services sector; the goods-producing sector actually shed 11 thousand jobs in

October.

The job losses in the goods sector were mainly concentrated in manufacturing and mining. In the services sector, a bulk of jobs was created

in trade and transport, professional business services, education and hospitality, which surged in November. A bulk of the uptick in

employment may be temporary workers for the upcoming festive season.

Personal incomes rose 0.6% m/m in October, from 0.4% growth previously, better than forecasts for no change. Income growth rose across

the board, apart from proprietor’s income – personal income assets (dividend/interest income) surged, rental and supplemental income

rose, while wages and salary growth remained upbeat.

On the consumption side however, personal spending growth slowed to 0.3% m/m in October, from 0.7% growth previously, worse than

expectations for an uptick of 0.5%. While spending on durable goods rose marginally, spending on services declined quite surprisingly. A

portion of the uptick in incomes went to higher savings rate, with the rate rising to 6%, from 5.7% previously. This may indicate that US

consumer’s propensity to spend is starting to wane.

The PCE deflator rose to 1.4% y/y in October, while core PCE remained unchanged at 1.7%, in line with expectations. Both indicate that

price pressures are rising and will likely be a further indicator lending support to a Fed rate hike next month

Pending home sales growth eased on both a monthly and annualised basis in October. Sales growth was 0.1% m/m, from 1.4% growth in

September, in line with forecasts. Higher mortgage rates and narrower inventories remain key headwinds for the housing market over the

medium term. For now, the recovery is underpinned by continued labour market and wage gains.

The Beige Book indicated that growth expanded at a modest to moderate pace in most districts in the past 3 months, with a positive

outlook for the next few months. Some districts however cited concern over the recent election as businesses are uncertain about policy

and some have deferred investment into the future until further clarity is provided. Consumer spending is still upbeat, along with the

labour and housing market recoveries, prices have risen, but new vehicle sales have been soft and the strong dollar remains a key headwind

to manufacturing activity.

Synopsis: The Fed is expected to raise rates next month, due to improving economic data recently. The uptick in GDP growth, along with

higher headline inflation supports expectations for higher interest rates in the US. Longer-term monetary policy response remains uncertain

in the face of uncertain fiscal policy from the new presidency.

Europe

Eurozone CPI rose to 0.6% y/y in November, from 0.5% previously, in line with expectations. Key upside came from higher food, alcohol and

tobacco prices, which rose sharply on an annualised basis.

Energy deflation persisted, with energy prices down 1.1% on an annualised basis, from -0.9% previously. Services inflation and non-energy

industrial goods inflation remained positive but unchanged in November.

All CPI subcomponents remain well below the ECB’s 2% inflation target. Even though prices have been rising, it’s at a very slow pace, with

the ECB not even expecting the 2% target to be reached by 2018.

Synopsis: Stubbornly low inflation and growth may keep monetary policy ultra-loose, with the ECB likely to extend the current QE

programme to the end of 2017, compared to previous indications of an earlier termination.

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Daily Market Commentary | 01 December 2016 Page 8 of 12

JSE performance back to top

Nedbank CIB Market Commentary | [email protected] | +27 11 295 5430

Top40 constituents Last price

-1d

MTD

YTD

AGL : Anglo American Plc 212.00 2.04 14.37 207.29 #

ANG : Anglogold Ashanti Ltd 155.34 1.32 -14.01 46.19 #

APN : Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Lt 289.93 0.33 -1.29 -6.32 #

BAT : Brait Se 85.15 -1.05 -4.96 -48.55 #

BGA : Barclays Africa Group Ltd 157.31 -1.70 0.61 9.63 #

BID : Bid Corp Ltd 246.57 -2.24 3.71 #

BIL : Bhp Billiton Plc 233.89 2.93 15.08 34.47 #

BTI : British American Tobacco Plc 781.35 1.12 1.13 -10.51 #

BVT : Bidvest Group Ltd 162.82 -0.01 -2.74 59.40 #

CFR : Financiere Richemont-Dep Rec 91.18 1.89 4.95 -18.30 #

DSY : Discovery Ltd 111.42 -1.40 -3.31 -16.19 #

FFA : Fortress Income Fund Ltd-A 16.23 0.50 -0.73 0.93 #

FFB : Fortress Income Fund Ltd 30.54 1.46 -4.74 -12.32 #

FSR : Firstrand Ltd 50.50 -2.17 4.51 19.19 #

GFI : Gold Fields Ltd 44.60 0.45 -18.63 5.69 #

GRT : Grow thpoint Properties Ltd 24.88 0.57 -1.03 7.10 #

IMP : Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd 44.20 -0.61 -18.45 76.52 #

INL : Investec Ltd 89.97 0.01 8.20 -17.84 #

INP : Investec Plc 91.10 0.67 8.32 -17.25 #

ITU : Intu Properties Plc 47.19 0.40 3.94 -36.16 #

LHC : Life Healthcare Group Holdin 31.04 -1.18 -13.78 -11.49 #

MEI : Mediclinic International Plc 124.70 1.80 -16.22 #

MND : Mondi Ltd 283.28 -0.07 7.51 -7.81 #

MNP : Mondi Plc 284.90 0.85 8.22 -7.65 #

MRP : Mr Price Group Ltd 145.05 0.16 -5.64 -27.48 #

MTN : Mtn Group Ltd 113.20 -0.58 -2.72 -14.82 #

NED : Nedbank Group Ltd 230.00 -1.07 4.31 21.94 #

NPN : Naspers Ltd-N Shs 2 054.86 -0.78 -9.07 -3.07 #

NTC : Netcare Ltd 31.24 -2.41 -9.79 -7.85 #

OML : Old Mutual Plc 33.10 0.91 0.12 -20.14 #

RDF : Redefine Properties Ltd 10.35 0.88 -10.62 6.70 #

REI : Reinet Investments Sa-Dr 27.66 1.50 2.98 -13.24 #

REM : Remgro Ltd 209.11 -2.19 -6.65 -13.13 #

RMH : Rmb Holdings Ltd 62.40 -1.96 4.84 12.21 #

SBK : Standard Bank Group Ltd 151.00 -0.98 5.55 33.04 #

SGL : Sibanye Gold Ltd 29.17 0.14 -20.63 27.66 #

SHP : Shoprite Holdings Ltd 186.94 -1.66 -6.06 30.49 #

SLM : Sanlam Ltd 61.67 -1.63 -5.65 1.87 #

SNH : Steinhoff International H Nv 65.08 -4.32 -10.59 -17.11 #

SOL : Sasol Ltd 379.35 4.87 1.32 -9.55 #

TBS : Tiger Brands Ltd 394.09 -1.75 2.63 24.54 #

VOD : Vodacom Group Ltd 144.73 -2.85 -0.50 -5.04 #WHL : Woolw orths Holdings Ltd 64.93 -0.26 -16.87 -35.17 #

Source: Bloomberg & Nedbank CIB T ime

Month

trend

2016/12/01 07:22

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Daily Market Commentary | 01 December 2016 Page 9 of 12

Last day to trade back to top

Susan Correia | [email protected] | +27 11 295 8227

Share Code Share name Dividend / interest rate

6 December 2016

AFEP AECI Linited 5.5% Pref dividend @49.797690cps

AWA Arrowhead Porperties Ltd dividend @ 20.89cps

BWN Balwin Properties Ltd dividend @ 11.089750cps

CML Coronation Fund Managers Ltd dividend @ 218cps

CTK Cartrack Holdings Ltd dividend @ 20cps

DIA Dipula Income Fund A dividend @ 1004.71412cps or 4.80107 new shares per 100 held

DIB Dipula Income Fund B dividend @ 894.79139cps or 5.66749 new shares per 100 held

DMCCB Soapstone Investment Ltd dividend @ 4904cps

HSP Holdsport Limited dividend @ 130cps

IAP Investec Australia Property Fund dividend @ 47.739270cps

INL Investec Ltd dividend @ 178cps

INP Investec Plc dividend @ 178cps

KAPN KAP Ind Hldgs Ltd Npl's take up @ 760cps

LDO Lodestone REIT Limited Offer

MRP Mr Price Group Ltd dividend @ 228.20cps

PAN Pan African Resources Plc dividemd TBA

PIK Pick n Pay Stores Ltd dividend @ 29.90cps

RTN Rex Trueform Cl Co -N- dividend @ 27cps

RTO Rex Trueform Cloth Co ltd dividend @ 27cps

SAR Safari Investments RSA Ltd dividend @ 32cps

SPP The Spar Group Ltd dividend @ 410cps

SSS Stor-Age Prop REIT Ltd dividend @ 43.04cps

Source: JSE

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Daily Market Commentary | 01 December 2016 Page 10 of 12

Economic calendar back to top

Nedbank CIB Market Commentary | [email protected] | +27 11 295 5430

Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior Revised

30-Nov

01:50 JN Industrial Production YoY Oct P -1.40% -1.30% 1.50% --

02:01 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Nov -4 -8 -3 --

09:00 GE Retail Sales YoY Oct 1.00% -1.00% 0.60% --

12:00 EC CPI Estimate YoY Nov 0.60% 0.60% 0.50% --

14:00 SA South Africa Budget Oct -- -30.91b -3.94b --

14:00 SA Trade Balance Rand Oct -6.7b -4.4b 6.7b 6.9b

14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 25-Nov -- -9.40% 5.50% --

15:15 US ADP Employment Change Nov 170k 216k 147k 119k

15:30 US Personal Income Oct 0.40% 0.60% 0.30% 0.40%

15:30 US Personal Spending Oct 0.50% 0.30% 0.50% 0.70%

15:30 US PCE Deflator YoY Oct 1.50% 1.40% 1.20% --

15:30 US PCE Core YoY Oct 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% --

17:00 US Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Oct -- 0.20% 2.00% --

21:00 US U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

01-Dec

02:30 JN Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Nov F -- 51.3 51.1 --

03:00 CH Manufacturing PMI Nov 51 51.7 51.2 --

10:55 GE Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Nov F 54.4 -- 54.4 --

11:00 SA Barclays Manufacturing PMI Nov -- -- 45.9 --

11:00 EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov F 53.7 -- 53.7 --

11:30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Nov 54.4 -- 54.3 --

12:00 EC Unemployment Rate Oct 10.00% -- 10.00% --

15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 26-Nov -- -- 251k --

15:30 US Continuing Claims 19-Nov -- -- 2043k --

16:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Nov F -- -- 53.9 --

17:00 US ISM Manufacturing Nov 52.1 -- 51.9 --

SA Naamsa Vehicle Sales YoY Nov -9.00% -- -10.10% --

Source: Bloomberg

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Daily Market Commentary | 01 December 2016 Page 11 of 12

Contacts

Head: Strategic Research

Mohammed Yaseen Nalla, CFA

(011) 295 5430

Treasury: Economic Analyst

Reezwana Sumad

(011) 294 1753

ALM Portfolio Management

(011) 535 4042

Bond Trading

(011) 535 4021

Credit Derivatives

(011) 535 4047

Equities Sales and Distribution

(011) 535 4030/31

Forex Business Banking Sales Desk

(011) 535 4003

Forex Corporate Sales Desk

JHB (011) 535 4002; DBN (031) 327 3000;

CTN (021) 413 9300

Forex Institutional Sales Desk

(011) 535 4005

Forex Retail Sales Desk

(011) 535 4020

Inflation Trading

(011) 535 4026

Interest Rate Swaps & FRA’s Trading

(011) 535 4004

Money Market Business Banking Sales Desk

(011) 535 4006

Money Market Corporate Sales Desk

JHB (011) 535 4007; DBN (031) 327 3000;

CTN (021) 413 9300

Money Market Institutional Sales Desk

(011) 535 4008

Non Soft & Soft Commodities Trading

(011) 535 4038

Preference shares desk

(011) 535 4072

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Daily Market Commentary | 01 December 2016 Page 12 of 12

Disclaimer

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and having its registered office at 135 Rivonia Road, Sandton, Johannesburg (“Nedbank”). The information contained herein may include facts relating to current

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