Daily i Forex Report1 AUG 2013

8/22/2019 Daily i Forex Report1 AUG 2013

1/15

DAILY IFOREX REPORT

01ST

AUG 2013

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2/15

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US Dollar Breaks Higher Ahead Of FedPolicy Announcement Steady Unemployment And Inflation FailsTo Impress Euro Traders

US Dollar Picks Up Ahead of GDP, Fed;GBP/USD Falls to Key Support

The US Dollar is a top performer so far this week, but the next fewdays are guaranteed to bring about volatility that could see theworlds reserve currency fall from near-first to last. Today, there arenumerous important US data and events on the calendar, with twostalwarts in their own right: the 2Q13 GDP report; and the FederalReserves July policy announcement.

Ahead of the Fed, the US Dollar may be set up for further weaknesas the 2Q13 GDP report is expected to come in soft at +1.0% from+1.8% annualized. The report, however, isnt an accurate indicatorof the strides made in recent months in consumption trends, the

housing sector, and the labor market; there was a material impact othe governments austerity measures on overall growth.

However, with the major chunk of tax hikes and spending cuts in therearview mirror, these fiscal headwinds should fade, paving the wayfor a stronger 2H13 a trend that the Fed will note later today. Fedpolicymakers are debating when to taper QE3, but also want todifferentiate tapering from tightening higher US yields haveproven to be negative for the fragile housing market recovery.

The taper talk has been mostly positive for the US Dollar as it hasstoked higher US Treasury yields, but currencies like the Euro andthe Japanese Yen have been rather resilient in recent weeks; thesetwo currencies should benefit should the Fed strike a dovish tone.On the other hand, with the Bank ofEngland meeting tomorrow, ahawkish-tilted Fed could see the GBPUSD be a leader to the

downside.

TRADING TIPSBUY EURUSD ABOVE

1.3300 TGT 1.3320/1.3340

SL 1.3270

SELL USDJPY BELOW 97.40

TGT 97.20/97.00 SL 97.70

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5190 TGT 1.5170/1.5150

SL 1.5220

HEADLINES
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3/15

HOURLY EURUSD CHARTHOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>.0030 (BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 45(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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4/15

HOURLY USDJPY CHART


ANALYSIS

USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>31(BEARISH SIGNAL)


5/15

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART


ANALYSIS

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>.0002(BEARISH SIGNAL)



6/15www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>67(BULLISH SIGNAL)


7/15

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARIISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISEMACD =>.0138(BEARISH SIGNAL)



8/15

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous N

Sun

Jul 2805:55

CNY Leading Index(JUN)

Medium 99.55 99.72

23:01GBP HometrackHousing Survey (MoM)(JUL)

Low 0.3% 0.4%

23:01GBP HometrackHousing Survey (YoY)(JUL)

Medium 1.3% 0.8%

23:50JPY Large Retailers'Sales (JUN)

Medium 3.5% 3.6% -0.4%

23:50

JPY Retail Trade s.a.

(MoM) (JUN) Low -0.2% 0.8% 1.5%

23:50JPY Retail Trade (YoY)(JUN)

Medium 1.6% 2.1% 0.8%

MonJul 29

03:30

JPY BoJ GovernorKuroda Speaks atResearch Insitute ofJapan

High

08:30GBP Net ConsumerCredit (JUN)

Medium 0.5B 0.7B 0.8B

08:30GBP Net Lending Sec.on Dwellings (JUN)

Low 1.0B 0.7B 0.5B

08:30 GBP MortgageApprovals (JUN)Medium 57.7K 59.7K 58.1K

08:30GBP M4 Money Supply(MoM) (JUN)

Low 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

08:30GBP M4 Money Supply(YoY) (JUN)

Low 1.5% -0.1%

08:30GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3MAnnualised (JUN)

Low 4.7% 4.4% 4.4%

10:00GBP CBI ReportedSales (JUL)

Low 17 10 1

14:00USD Pending HomeSales (MoM) (JUN) Low -1.0% 6.7%

14:00USD Pending HomeSales (YoY) (JUN)

Medium 11.5% 12.5%

14:30USD Dallas FedManufacturing Activity(JUL)

Low 7.3 6.5

21:00USD EIA Gasoline andDiesel Fuel Update

Low

22:45NZD Building Permits(MoM) (JUN)

Low 1.3%

ECONOMIC CALLENDER


9/15

23:30JPY HouseholdSpending (YoY) (JUN)

Medium 1.3% -1.6%

23:30JPY Jobless Rate(JUN)

Medium 4.0% 4.1%

23:30JPY Job-To-ApplicantRatio (JUN)

Low 0.91 0.90

23:50JPY IndustrialProduction (MoM) (JUNP)

Low -1.5% 1.9%

23:50JPY IndustrialProduction (YoY) (JUNP)

Medium -2.9% -1.1%

Tue

Jul 3001:30

AUD Building Approvals(MoM) (JUN)

Low 2.0% -1.1%

01:30AUD Building Approvals(YoY) (JUN)

Medium 0.0% -3.2%

04:00JPY Vehicle Production(YoY) (JUN)

Low -6.2%

05:00JPY Small BusinessConfidence (JUL)

Medium 49.6

06:00EUR German GfKConsumer ConfidenceSurvey (AUG)

Medium 6.9 6.8

07:00LIVE

EUR Spanish GDP(QoQ) (2Q A)

Low -0.1% -0.5%

07:00LIVE

EUR Spanish GDP(YoY) (2Q A)

Medium -1.8% -2.0%

08:30GBP Lloyds BusinessBarometer (JUL)

Low 36

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneEconomic Confidence(JUL)

Low 92.5 91.3

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneBusiness ClimateIndicator (JUL)

Low -0.54 -0.68

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneIndustrial Confidence(JUL)

Low -10.2 -11.2

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneConsumer Confidence(JUL F)

Medium -17.4 -17.4

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneServices Confidence(JUL)

Low -8.9 -9.5

12:00EUR GermanConsumer Price Index(MoM) (JUL P)

Medium 0.3% 0.1%

12:00EUR GermanConsumer Price Index(YoY) (JUL P)

High 1.7% 1.8%

12:00

EUR GermanConsumer Price Index -EU Harmonised (MoM)(JUL P)

Medium 0.3% 0.1%

12:00

EUR GermanConsumer Price Index -EU Harmonised (YoY)(JUL P)

High 1.8% 1.9%

12:30CAD Industrial ProductPrice (MoM) (JUN)

Low 0.1% 0.0%

12:30CAD Raw MaterialsPrice Index (MoM)

(JUN)

Low 0.3% 0.2%


10/15

13:00USD S&P/CS 20 Citys.a. (MoM) (MAY)

Low 1.5% 1.7%

13:00USD S&P/Case-ShillerComposite-20 (YoY)(MAY)

Low 12.4% 12.1%

13:00USD S&P/Case-ShillerHome Price Index(MAY)

Low 152.37

14:00USD ConsumerConfidence (JUL)

High 81.0 81.4

23:01GBP BRC Shop PriceIndex (YoY) (JUL)

Low -0.2%

23:05GBP GfK ConsumerConfidence Survey(JUL)

Medium -19 -21

23:15

JPY Nomura/JMMAManufacturingPurchasing ManagerIndex (JUL)

Medium 52.3

23:50JPY Loans & DiscountsCorp (YoY) (JUN)

Low 2.06%

WedJul 31

USD Federal ReserveFOMC Meeting

High

01:00NZD ANZ BusinessConfidence (JUL)

Low 50.1

01:00NZD ANZ ActivityOutlook (JUL)

Low 45

01:30JPY Labor CashEarnings (YoY) (JUN)

Low 0.1% 0.0%

01:30AUD Private SectorCredit (MoM) (JUN)

Low 0.3% 0.3%

01:30AUD Private SectorCredit (YoY) (JUN)

Medium 2.9% 3.0%

03:00NZD Money Supply M3(YoY) (JUN)

Low 6.2%

05:00JPY Housing Starts(YoY) (JUN)

Medium 16.0% 14.5%

05:00JPY AnnualizedHousing Starts (JUN)

Medium 0.982M 1.027M

05:00JPY ConstructionOrders (YoY) (JUN)

Low 26.0%

06:00EUR German RetailSales (MoM) (JUN)

Low 0.2% 0.8%

06:00EUR German RetailSales (YoY) (JUN)

Medium 0.5% 0.4%

06:00CHF UBS ConsumptionIndicator (JUN)

Medium 1.46

07:00CHF KOF SwissLeading Indicator (JUL)

Medium 1.22 1.16

07:55EUR GermanUnemployment Change(JUL)

High 0K -12K

07:55EUR GermanUnemployment Rates.a. (JUL)

High 6.8% 6.8%


11/15

08:00EUR ItalianUnemployment Rate(JUN P)

Medium 12.3% 12.2%

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneConsumer Price Index -Core (YoY) (JUL A)

High 1.2% 1.2%

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneConsumer Price IndexEstimate (YoY) (JUL)

Medium 1.6% 1.6%

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneUnemployment Rate(JUN)

Medium 12.2% 12.1%

11:00USD MBA MortgageApplications (JUL 26)

Low -1.2%

12:15USD ADP EmploymentChange (JUL)

Medium 180K 188K

12:30

USD Bureau ofEconomic AnalysisRelease AnnualRevisions of GDP

Medium

12:30CAD Gross DomesticProduct (MoM) (MAY)

Medium 0.3% 0.1%

12:30CAD Gross DomesticProduct (YoY) (MAY)

High 1.6% 1.4%

12:30USD Employment CostIndex (2Q)

Low 0.4% 0.3%

12:30LIVE

USD Gross DomesticProduct (Annualized)(2Q A)

High 1.0% 1.8%

12:30USD PersonalConsumption (2Q A)

Medium 1.6% 2.6%

12:30USD Gross DomesticProduct Price Index (2QA)

High 1.0% 1.2%

12:30

USD Core PersonalConsumption

Expenditure (QoQ) (2QA)

Medium 1.1% 1.3%

13:00USD NAPM-Milwaukee(JUL)

Low 52.0 51.6

13:45USD ChicagoPurchasing Manager(JUL)

Medium 54.0 51.6

14:30USD DOE U.S. CrudeOil Inventories (JUL 26)

Low -2825K

14:30USD DOE Cushing OKCrude Inventory (JUL26)

Low -2060K

14:30USD DOE U.S.Gasoline Inventories

(JUL 26)

Low -1389K

14:30USD DOE U.S.Distillate Inventory (JUL26)

Low -1227K

18:00USD Federal OpenMarket Committee RateDecision (JUL 31)

High 0.25% 0.25%

23:30AUD AiG Performanceof Manufacturing Index(JUL)

Medium 49.6

23:50JPY Japan BuyingForeign Bonds (Yen)(JUL 26)

Medium 549.3B

23:50JPY Japan BuyingForeign Stocks (Yen)

(JUL 26)

Medium -56.7B


12/15

23:50JPY Foreign BuyingJapan Bonds (Yen)(JUL 26)

Low 790.3B

23:50JPY Foreign BuyingJapan Stocks (Yen)(JUL 26)

Low 349.8B

Thu

Aug 100:00

AUD RPData/RismarkHouse Px (MoM) (JUL)

Low 1.9%

JPY Official ReserveAssets (JUL)

Low $1238.7B

01:00CNY ManufacturingPMI (JUL)

High 49.8 50.1

01:00AUD HIA New HomeSales (MoM) (JUN)

Medium 1.6%

01:30AUD Import Price Index(QoQ) (2Q)

Low 2.0% 0.0%

01:30AUD Export Price Index(QoQ) (2Q)

Low 0.3% 2.8%

01:45CNY HSBC/MarkitManufacturing PMI(JUL)

Medium 47.7 48.2

05:00JPY Vehicle Sales(YoY) (JUL)

Low -15.8%

06:30AUD Commodity Index(JUL)

Low 88.9

06:30AUD RBA CommodityIndex SDR (YoY) (JUL)

Low -10.5%

07:45EUR Italian PurchasingManager IndexManufacturing (JUL)

Low 49.7 49.1

07:50

EUR FrenchPurchasing ManagerIndex Manufacturing

(JUL F)

Low 49.8 49.8

07:55

EUR GermanPurchasing ManagerIndex Manufacturing(JUL F)

Medium 50.3 50.3

08:00

EUR Euro-ZonePurchasing ManagerIndex Manufacturing(JUL F)

Medium 50.1 50.1

08:30GBP PurchasingManager IndexManufacturing (JUL)

Medium 52.8 52.5

11:00LIVE

GBP Bank of EnglandRate Decision (AUG 1)

High 0.50% 0.50%

11:00LIVE GBP BOE AssetPurchase Target (AUG)High 375B 375B

11:30USD Challenger JobCuts (YoY) (JUL)

Low 4.8%

11:30USD RBC ConsumerOutlook Index (AUG)

Low 50.7

11:45LIVE

EUR European CentralBank Rate Decision(AUG 1)

High 0.50% 0.50%

11:45LIVE

EUR ECB DepositFacility Rate (AUG 1)

Medium 0.00% 0.00%


13/15

12:30USD Initial JoblessClaims (JUL 27)

Medium 344K 343K

12:30USD Continuing Claims(JUL 20)

Low 3000K 2997K

12:58USD Markit US PMIFinal (JUL)

Medium 53.2

14:00USD ConstructionSpending (MoM) (JUN)

Medium 0.4% 0.5%

14:00USD ISMManufacturing (JUL)

High 52.0 50.9

14:00USD ISM Prices Paid(JUL)

Medium 54.0 52.5

14:30USD EIA Natural GasStorage Change (JUL26)

Low 41

21:00USD Total VehicleSales (JUL)

Low 15.80M 15.89M

21:00USD Domestic VehicleSales (JUL)

Low 12.40M 12.43M

23:50JPY Monetary Base(YoY) (JUL)

Medium 36.00%

23:50JPY Monetary BaseEnd of period (JUL)

Medium 173.1T

Fri

Aug 2

GBP Halifax Plc HousePrices s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

Low 0.6%

GBP Halifax HousePrice (3MoY) (JUL)

Low 3.7%

01:30AUD Producer PriceIndex (QoQ) (2Q)

Low 0.3%

01:30AUD Producer PriceIndex (YoY) (2Q)

Medium 1.6%

06:00GBP Nationwide HousePrices s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

Low 0.4% 0.3%

06:00GBP Nationwide HousePrices n.s.a. (YoY)(JUL)

Medium 3.1% 1.9%

07:30CHF SVME-PurchasingManagers Index (JUL)

Medium 52.5 51.9

08:30GBP PurchasingManager IndexConstruction (JUL)

Medium 51.5 51

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneProducer Price Index(MoM) (JUN)

Low 0.0% -0.3%

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneProducer Price Index(YoY) (JUN)

Medium 0.3% -0.1%

12:30LIVE

USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (JUL)

High 185K 195K

12:30USD Change in PrivatePayrolls (JUL)

Medium 187K 202K

12:30USD Change inManufacturing Payrolls(JUL)

Low 0K -6K


14/15

12:30LIVE

USD UnemploymentRate (JUL)

High 7.5% 7.6%

12:30USD Two-MonthPayroll Net Revision(JUL)

Medium

12:30USD Change inHousehold Employment(JUL)

Medium 160

12:30USD UnderemploymentRate (JUL)

Medium 14.3%

12:30USD Average HourlyEarnings (MoM) (JUL)

Low 0.2% 0.4%

12:30USD Average HourlyEarnings (YoY) (JUL)

Medium 2.2% 2.2%

12:30USD Average WeeklyHours All Employees(JUL)

Low 34.5 34.5

12:30USD Personal Income(JUN)

Medium 0.4% 0.5%

12:30USD PersonalSpending (JUN)

Medium 0.5% 0.3%

12:30

USD PersonalConsumptionExpenditure Deflator(MoM) (JUN)

Low 0.4% 0.1%

12:30

USD PersonalConsumptionExpenditure Deflator(YoY) (JUN)

Low 1.3% 1.0%

12:30

USD PersonalConsumptionExpenditure Core(MoM) (JUN)

Low 0.1% 0.1%

12:30

USD PersonalConsumptionExpenditure Core (YoY)(JUN)

Medium 1.1% 1.1%

12:30USD Personal Incomeand Spending AnnualRevisions

Low

13:45USD ISM New York(JUL)

Low 47

14:00USD Factory Orders(JUN)

Medium 2.3% 2.1%

16:15USD Fed's BullardSpeaks on U.S.Economy in Boston

Low

SatAug 3

01:00CNY Non-manufacturing PMI(JUL)

Medium 53.9


15/15


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Daily i Forex Report1 AUG 2013