Daily i Forex Report 16 Sep 2013

7/29/2019 Daily i Forex Report 16 Sep 2013

1/15

DAILY IFOREX REPORT

16th

SEP 2013


2/15

BP/USD 1.5807

BP/EUR 1.1890

UR/USD 1.3287

BPAUD 1.7080

BP/CAD 1.6344

BP/CHF 1.4713

BP/CZK 30.633

BP/DKK 8.865

BP/HKD 12.253

BP/INR 100.22

BP/JPY 157.44

BP/NOK 9.340

BP/NZD 1.945

BP/PLN 5.006

BP/SEK 10.330

BP/SGD 2.007

BP/THB 50.33

BP/TRY 3.205

BP/ZAR 15.731

BP/CNY 9.723

Forex: From Dollar to Gold, Markets at Risk asFOMC Readies Taper

Dollar ForecastUS Dollar Set for Explosive FOMCBut Does it Rally or

Collapse?

The event dollar traders and really investors in all asset classes have long

waited for is finally upon us. Speculation surrounding the FOMCs Taper

decision has run rampant, spurring expectations and fear of an explosive

reaction to a big shift in the markets support structure.

Euro Forecast - Its Do-or-Die time for the Euro/US Dollar ahead of FOMC

Decision

The Euro broke to fresh multi-week highs against the US Dollar, but the Dow

Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) continues to hold key multi-

month lows. All eyes now turn a highly-anticipated US Federal Reserve policy

announcement to drive FX moves.

Gold Forecast - Posts Largest Drop Since June Ahead of Fed- Bearish Below

$1373

Gold price losses mark the largest single week decline since June and come

ahead of next weeks highly anticipated FOMC policy meeting. Bullion remain

at risk after breaking below key technical support.

British Pound Forecast - Pound Overbought on Upbeat BoE, MPC Minutes to

Prompt Fresh Highs

The Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision may help the sterling to

preserve the bullish trend dating back to July should the central bank highligh

an improved outlook for the U.K. economy.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Rebound to be Tested by RBA Minutes, FOMC

The Aussie dollar is taking advnatage of an improved news flow out of China

and an end to the RBA's rate cut regime. However, macro-level forces come

into focus as all eyes turn to the Federal Reserve as the policy-setting FOMC

committee convenes for its monthly meeting.

TRADING TIPS SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3280 TGT

1.3260/1.3240 SL 1.3310

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 99.40TGT 99.60/99.80SL 99.10

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE1.5900 TGT1.5920/1.5940 SL 1.5880

HEADLINES


3/15

HOURLY EURUSD CHARTHOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>.0003(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 50(BEARISH SIGNAL)


4/15

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>.10(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>44(BULLISH SIGNAL)


5/15

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>66(BULLISH SIGNAL)


6/15

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH



RSI =>33(BEARISH SIGNAL)


7/15

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH



RSI =>42(BEARISH SIGNAL)


8/15

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous N

SunSep 8

01:30CNY Trade Balance(AUG)

Medium 28.52B $20.00B $17.82B

01:30 CNY Exports (YoY)(AUG) Low 7.2% 5.5% 5.1%

01:30CNY Imports (YoY)(AUG)

Low 7.0% 11.3% 10.9%

22:45NZD ManufacturingActivity (2Q)

Low -2.0% 0.2%

22:45NZD ManufacturingActivity Volume (QoQ)(2Q)

Low -3.4% -0.6%

23:50JPY Bank LendingBanks ex-Trust (AUG)

Medium 2.3% 2.3%

23:50

JPY Bank Lending

incl Trusts (YoY)(AUG)Medium 2.0% 2.0%

23:50JPY Gross DomesticProduct Annualized(2Q F)

Medium 3.8% 3.9% 2.6%

23:50JPY Gross DomesticProduct (QoQ) (2Q F)

Medium 0.9% 1.0% 0.6%

23:50JPY Trade Balance -BOP Basis (Yen)(JUL)

Medium -943.3B -862.4B -139.2B

23:50JPY Adjusted CurrentAccount Total (Yen)(JUL)

Low 333.7B 313.9B 646.2B

23:50JPY BoP CurrentAccount Balance(YoY) (JUL)

Low -12.9% -27.8% -20.3%

23:50JPY Current AccountTotal (Yen) (JUL)

Low 577.3B 507.7B 336.3B

23:50JPY GDP BusinessSpending (QoQ) (2QF)

Low 1.3% 1.1% -0.1%

23:50JPY GDP ConsumerSpending (QoQ) (2QF)

Low 0.7% 0.8%

23:50JPY Gross DomesticProduct Deflator(YoY) (2Q F)

Low -0.5% -0.3% -0.3%

23:50JPY Nominal GrossDomestic Product

(QoQ) (2Q F)

Low 0.9% 1.0% 0.7%

MonSep 9

00:00NZD QV House Prices(YoY) (AUG)

Low 8.5% 8.1%

01:30CNY Consumer PriceIndex (YoY) (AUG)

High 2.6% 2.6% 2.7%

01:30AUD Home Loans(JUL)

Medium 2.4% 2.0% 2.6%

01:30AUD Value of Loans(MoM) (JUL)

Medium 0.0% 2.4%

01:30CNY Producer PriceIndex (YoY) (AUG)

Medium -1.6% -1.7% -2.3%

ECONOMIC CALLENDER


9/15

01:30AUD ANZ JobAdvertisements(MoM) (AUG)

Low -2.0% -1.1%

01:30AUD InvestmentLending (JUL)

Low 2.9% -0.1%

04:30JPY Bankruptcies(YoY) (AUG)

Medium -15.30% -0.09%

05:00JPY ConsumerConfidence Index(AUG)

Medium 43.0 44.0 43.6

05:45CHF UnemploymentRate (AUG)

Medium 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

05:45CHF UnemploymentRate s.a. (AUG)

Medium 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%

06:00JPY Eco WatchersSurvey: Outlook(AUG)

Medium 51.2 53.6

06:00JPY Eco WatchersSurvey: Current(AUG)

Low 51.2 53.5 52.3

07:15CHF Retail Sales(Real) (YoY) (JUL)

Medium 0.8% 2.3%

08:30EUR Euro-Zone SentixInvestor Confidence(SEP)

Medium 6.5 -3.5 -4.9

12:30CAD Building Permits(MoM) (JUL)

Medium 20.7% 3.5% -10.6%

15:00USD Fed's Williams toSpeak at NABE in SanFrancisco

Low

19:00USD Consumer Credit(JUL)

Medium $10.437B $12.700B $11.925B

20:00NZD New ZealandManpower Survey(4Q)

Low 18% 21%

21:00USD EIA Gasoline andDiesel Fuel Update

Low

22:00NZD ANZTruckometer Heavy(MoM) (AUG)

Low -1.5% 9.6%

22:00AUD AustraliaManpower Survey(4Q)

Low 3% 5%

22:45NZD Card SpendingRetail (MoM) (AUG)

Medium 0.8% 0.6% 0.5%

22:45NZD NZ CardSpending (MoM)(AUG)

Medium 0.4% 0.4%

23:01GBP RICS HousePrice Balance (AUG)

Low 40% 39% 37%

23:50JPY Bank of JapanAugust 7-8 meetingminutes

Medium

23:50JPY Tertiary IndustryIndex (MoM) (JUL)

Medium -0.4% -0.5% -0.5%

23:50JPY Japan MoneyStock M2+CD (YoY)(AUG)

Low 3.7% 3.8% 3.7%

23:50JPY Japan MoneyStock M3 (YoY) (AUG)

Low 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%


10/15

Tue

Sep 1000:00

JPY Japan ManpowerSurvey (4Q)

Low 15.0 15.0

00:01CNY ManpowerSurvey (4Q)

Low 14% 12%

00:01

EUR Germany FourthQuarter ManpowerEmployment Outlook(Table)

Low

01:30AUD NAB Business

Confidence (AUG)

Medium 6 -3

01:30AUD NAB BusinessConditions (AUG)

Low -6 -7

05:30CNY Fixed Assets ExRural YTD (YoY)(AUG)

Medium 20.3% 20.2% 20.1%

05:30CNY IndustrialProduction YTD (YoY)(AUG)

Medium 9.5% 9.4% 9.4%

05:30CNY IndustrialProduction (YoY)(AUG)

Medium 10.4% 9.9% 9.7%

05:30CNY Retail Sales YTD(YoY) (AUG)

Medium 12.8% 12.9% 12.8%

05:30CNY Retail Sales(YoY) (AUG)

Medium 13.4% 13.3% 13.2%

06:00JPY Machine ToolOrders (YoY) (AUG P)

Low -1.8% -12.2%

08:00CNY New Yuan Loans(AUG)

High 711.3B 730.0B 699.9B

08:00

EUR Italian GrossDomestic Product s.a.and w.d.a. (YoY) (2QF)

Medium -2.1% -2.0% -2.0%

08:00

CNY Aggregate

Financing RMB (AUG)Low

1570.0B 950.0B 808.8B

08:00CNY Money SupplyM0 (YoY) (AUG)

Low 9.3% 9.4% 9.5%


Low 9.9% 9.6% 9.7%


Low 14.7% 14.6% 14.5%

08:00

EUR Italian GrossDomestic Product s.a.and w.d.a. (QoQ) (2QF)

Low -0.3% -0.2% -0.2%

11:30

USD NFIB Small

Business Optimism(AUG)

Low 94.0 95.0 94.1

12:15CAD Housing Starts(AUG)

Medium 180.3K 190.0K 193.0K

14:00USD JOLTs JobOpenings (JUL)

Low 3689 3900 3869

23:50JPY BSI Large AllIndustry (QoQ) (3Q)

Medium 12.0 5.9

23:50JPY BSI LargeManufacturing (QoQ)(3Q)

Low 15.2 5


11/15

23:50

JPY DomesticCorporate GoodsPrice Index (MoM)(AUG)

Low 0.3% 0.4% 0.6%

23:50

JPY DomesticCorporate GoodsPrice Index (YoY)(AUG)

Low 2.4% 2.4% 2.3%

WedSep 11

00:30AUD WestpacConsumer Confidence(SEP)

Medium 4.7% 3.5%

00:30

AUD Westpac

Consumer ConfidenceIndex (SEP)

Low 110.6 105.7

01:30

JPY BOJ BoardMember IshidaSpeech & PressConference

Low

06:00

EUR GermanConsumer Price Index- EU Harmonised(YoY) (AUG F)

Medium 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

06:00EUR GermanConsumer Price Index(YoY) (AUG F)

Medium 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

06:00

EUR GermanConsumer Price Index- EU Harmonised

(MoM) (AUG F)

Low 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

06:00EUR GermanConsumer Price Index(MoM) (AUG F)

Low 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

08:30GBP Average WeeklyEarnings (3M/(YoY)(JUL)

Medium 1.1% 1.3% 2.2%

08:30GBP Claimant CountRate (AUG)

Medium 4.2% 4.3% 4.3%

08:30GBP EmploymentChange (3M/3M) (JUL)

Medium 80K 55K 69K

08:30GBP ILOUnemployment Rate

(3M) (JUL)

Medium 7.7% 7.8% 7.8%

08:30GBP Jobless ClaimsChange (AUG)

Medium -32.6K -21.0K -36.3K

08:30GBP Weekly Earningsex Bonus (3M/(YoY)(JUL)

Low 1.0% 1.0% 1.1%

11:00USD MBA MortgageApplications (SEP 6)

Low -13.5% 1.3%

14:00USD WholesaleInventories (JUL)

Low 0.1% 0.3% -0.2%

14:00USD Wholesale TradeSales (MoM) (JUL)

Low 0.1% 0.5% 0.4%

14:30USD DOE Cushing OKCrude Inventory (SEP6)

Low -639K -1829K

14:30USD DOE U.S. CrudeOil Inventories (SEP6)

Low -219K -2100K -1836K

14:30USD DOE U.S.Distillate Inventory(SEP 6)

Low 2586K 600K 549K

14:30USD DOE U.S.Gasoline Inventories(SEP 6)

Low 1658K -1000K -1827K

15:30GBP BoE's MilesSpeaks on Remit

Low


12/15

21:00LIVE

NZD Reserve Bank ofNew Zealand RateDecision (SEP 12)

High 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%

23:50JPY Japan BuyingForeign Bonds (Yen)(SEP 6)

Medium -66.5B -530.9B

23:50JPY Japan BuyingForeign Stocks (Yen)(SEP 6)

Medium 38.1B 65.6B

23:50JPY Machine Orders(YoY) (JUL)

Medium 6.5% 7.7% 4.9%

23:50JPY Foreign BuyingJapan Bonds (Yen)(SEP 6)

Low -197.3B 201.5B

23:50JPY Foreign BuyingJapan Stocks (Yen)(SEP 6)

Low 185.4B -175.0B

23:50JPY Machine Orders(MoM) (JUL)

Low 0.0% 2.4% -2.7%

Thu

Sep 1201:00

AUD ConsumerInflation Expectation(SEP)

Medium 1.5% 2.3%

01:30AUD EmploymentChange (AUG)

High -10.8K 10.0K -11.4K

01:30AUD UnemploymentRate (AUG)

High 5.8% 5.8% 5.7%

01:30AUD Full TimeEmployment Change(AUG)

Medium -2.6K -7.3K

01:30AUD Credit CardBalances (JUL)

Low $A49.2B $A49.9B

01:30AUD Credit CardPurchases (JUL)

Low $A23.0B $A20.3B

01:30AUD Part TimeEmployment Change(AUG)

Low -8.2K -4.1K

01:30AUD ParticipationRate (AUG)

Low 65.0% 65.2% 65.1%

02:00JPY Tokyo AverageOffice Vacancies

Low 8.16 8.29

06:00EUR GermanWholesale Price Index(MoM) (AUG)

Low -0.6% -0.3%

06:00EUR GermanWholesale Price Index(YoY) (AUG)

Low -1.7% 0.0%

08:00EUR ECB PublishesMonthly Report

High

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneIndustrial Productionw.d.a. (YoY) (JUL)

Medium -2.1% -0.2% -0.4%

09:00

GBP BoE's Carney,Fisher, Miles andMcCafferty Testify toParliament

Medium

09:00EUR Euro-ZoneIndustrial Productions.a. (MoM) (JUL)

Low -1.5% -0.3% 0.6%

12:30CAD New HousingPrice Index (YoY)(JUL)

Medium 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%

12:30USD Import PriceIndex (YoY) (AUG)

Medium -0.4% 0.4% 0.9%


13/15

12:30USD Initial JoblessClaims (SEP 6)

Medium 292K 330K 323K

12:30CAD New HousingPrice Index (MoM)(JUL)

Low 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%

12:30USD ContinuingClaims (AUG 30) (AUG30)

Low 2871K 2960K 2944K

12:30USD Import PriceIndex (MoM) (AUG)

Low 0.0% 0.5% 0.1%

13:00CAD Teranet/NationalBank HPI (MoM)(AUG)

Low 0.6% 0.3% 0.7%

13:00CAD Teranet/NationalBank HPI (YoY) (AUG)

Low 2.3% 1.9%

13:00CAD Teranet/NationalBank HP Index (AUG)

Low 159.12 158.16

14:30USD EIA Natural GasStorage Change (SEP6)

Low 65 68 58

18:00USD Monthly BudgetStatement (AUG)

Medium -$147.9B -$146.0B -$190.5B

22:30

NZD Business NZPerformance ofManufacturing Index(AUG)

Medium 57.5 59.5

22:45NZD Food Prices(MoM) (AUG)

Low -0.5% 0.5%

FriSep 13

01:00NZD ANZ ConsumerConfidence (MoM)(SEP)

Medium -3.4% 2.7%

01:00NZD ANZ ConsumerConfidence Index(SEP)

Low 118.8 123

03:00NZD Non ResidentBond Holdings (AUG)

Low 68.3% 67.9%

04:30JPY IndustrialProduction (YoY) (JULF)

Medium 1.8% 1.6%

04:30JPY CapacityUtilization (MoM)(JUL)

Low 3.7% -2.3%

04:30JPY IndustrialProduction (MoM)(JUL F)

Low 3.4% 3.2%

06:45

EUR EurozoneFinance Minister Meetto Discuss Greece,Cyprus

Medium

07:15CHF Producer &Import Prices (MoM)

(AUG)

Low 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

07:15CHF Producer &Import Prices (YoY)(AUG)

Low 0.2% 0.4% 0.5%

08:30EUR Italian GeneralGovernment Debt(JUL)

Low 2072.9B 2075.1B

08:30GBP ConstructionOutput SA (MoM)(JUL)

Low 2.2% 2.1% -1.1%

08:30GBP ConstructionOutput SA (YoY) (JUL)

Low 2.0% 1.3% 2.2%

09:00EUR EurozoneEmployment (QoQ)

(2Q)

Low -0.1% -0.4%


14/15

09:00EUR EurozoneEmployment (YoY)(2Q)

Low -1.0% -1.0%

12:30USD Advance RetailSales (AUG)

High 0.2% 0.5% 0.4%

12:30USD Producer PriceIndex Ex Food &Energy (YoY) (AUG)

Medium 1.1% 1.3% 1.2%

12:30USD Producer PriceIndex (YoY) (AUG)

Medium 1.4% 1.3% 2.1%

12:30USD Retail Sales LessAutos (AUG)

Medium 0.1% 0.3% 0.6%

12:30CAD CapacityUtilization Rate (2Q)

Low 80.6% 80.6% 80.8%

12:30USD Producer PriceIndex Ex Food &Energy (MoM) (AUG)

Low 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%

12:30USD Producer PriceIndex (MoM) (AUG)

Low 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%

12:30USD Retail SalesControl Group (AUG)

Low 0.2% 0.3% 0.5%

12:30USD Retail Sales ExAuto and Gas (AUG)

Low 0.1% 0.3% 0.6%

13:55USD U. of MichiganConfidence (SEP P)

High 76.8 82.0 82.1

14:00LIVE

USD BusinessInventories (JUL)

Medium 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%


15/15

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Daily i Forex Report 16 Sep 2013