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Cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean:
the MEDEX project
A. Jansa
Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, Spain
Heavy rain, strong wind, ... and other high impact weather events in the Mediterranean are frequently associated
to cyclones
To improve the knowledge and the forecasting of theCyclones that produce High Impact Weather in theMediterranean is the objective of MEDEX
As far a relationship between cyclones and high impactweather does exist, the MEDEX objective is also to improve the forecasting of H.I.W., e. g., of heavy rain and flooding, the most important H.I.W. in the Mediterranean
,,
In this presentation:•A few examples of cyclone-high impact weather interaction will be shown•Also some results from a climatological/systematic study of this interaction•Finally, the main keys of the project MEDEX will be anounced
Example (A): Montserrat flood:200 mm in 3 hrs
5 people died500 people displaced
Historical and material damage
Type (A): the cyclone organises the inflow of wet and warm Mediterranean air
loop loop
Example (B): Sardinian cyclone:>100 mm in 3 hrs
118 km/h wind gust9 m highest waves
Type (B): deep cyclone and hazardous weather are two aspects of the same evolution
loop
Another Case
© ESA, 1997
Example (C): Quasi-tropical cyclone:115 km/h wind gust
27 mm/ 1 h
Type (C): cyclone driven by latent heat release (as a result of previous heavy rain)
•a cyclone within 600 km in >90% of cases of heavy rain•in most of the cases the cyclone well located to organise the wet inflow
Climatological/systematic study: over 700 cases of heavy rain, e.g., 60 mm/24 h; looking for a close simultaneous cyclone:
MEDEX:
General objective: Going to better understanding and improved forecast of Mediterranean severe storms, through better understanding and improved forecast of cyclones that produce severe storms (high impact weather)
As a summary: A development path ------>>>>>>>>>
1.Types of situation2. Systematic study
3.Numerical experimentsconcerning factors
4. Determination ofsensitive areas
5. Targeted observations
Reanalysis
6. Observing SystemsSimulations Experiments
7. Recommendationsabout O.S. and modelling
8. Conceptual modelsfor forecasters
9. Improved forecastsand social benefit
In general, for any kind of situation, the EUCOS study on Climatology of Sensitive Areas (Marseille & Bouttier, 2000) give us an idea about were arethe most sensitive areas for Southern Europe:
We need to know sensitive areas for specific cases:An hypothesis about sensitive areas and targeted observationsfor heavy rain in Valencia:
Heavy rain site
Sensitive areaH+12/H+24low level
Sensitive areaH+36/H+72high level
More information in: http://www.inm.es/MEDEX
MEDEX is an official project of WMO ...(Resolution of 12 Oct. 2000)
G AWG lobal Atm ospheric W atch
TMR PTropica l Meteoro logy
R esearch P rogram m e
PC C W MRPhysics and C hem istry of C louds
and W eather ModificationR esearch P rogram m e
MAP In-F light Ic ing InternationalT ropical CycloneLandfall Project
TH O R PEX M EDEX
W W RPW orld W eather
Research Program m e
AREPAtm ospheric Research and Environm ent P rogram m e
W M Om ain program m es
... and has the support of more than 20 institutions,most of them in the Mediterranean countries.
But it is not a financed project.