Cyclicity The Collective Human Experience

www.einhawk.com 1 www.einhawk‐blog.com

Cyclicity&TheCollectiveHumanExperience1900‐2016Version 1.9

March,2016


Disclaimer

ThematerialinthispresentationhasbeenpreparedbyEinhawk,LLC(Einhawk)andisgeneralresearchperformedandcompiledbyEinhawk.Thisinformationisgiveninsummaryformanddoesnotpurporttobecomplete.Informationinthispresentation,includingforecastfinancialinformation,shouldnotbeconsideredasadviceorarecommendationtoinvestorsorpotentialinvestorsinrelationtoholding,purchasingorsellingsecuritiesorotherfinancialproductsorinstrumentsanddoesnottakeintoaccountyourparticularinvestmentobjectives,financialsituationorneeds.Beforeactingonanyinformationyoushouldconsidertheappropriatenessoftheinformationhavingregardtothesematters,anyrelevantofferdocumentandinparticular,youshouldseekindependentfinancialadvice.Allsecuritiesandfinancialproductorinstrumenttransactionsinvolverisks,whichinclude(amongothers)theriskofadverseorunanticipatedmarket,financialorpoliticaldevelopmentsand,ininternationaltransactions,currencyrisk.

Thispresentationmaycontainforwardlookingstatementsincludingstatementsregardingourintent,belieforcurrentexpectationswithrespecttoEinhawk’sconclusions,marketconditions,resultsofoperationandfinancialcondition,capitaladequacy,specificprovisionsandriskmanagementpractices.Readersarecautionednottoplaceunduerelianceontheseforwardlookingstatements.Einhawkdoesnotundertakeanyobligationtopubliclyreleasetheresultofanyrevisionstotheseforwardlookingstatementstoreflecteventsorcircumstancesafterthedatehereoftoreflecttheoccurrenceofunanticipatedevents.Whileduecarehasbeenusedinthepreparationoftheinformation,actualresultsmayvaryinamateriallypositiveornegativemanner.ForecastsandhypotheticalexamplesaresubjecttouncertaintyandcontingenciesoutsideEinhawk’scontrol.Pastperformanceisnotareliableindicationoffutureperformance.


“It'snotthatI'msosmart,it'sjustthatIstaywithproblemslonger.”AlbertEinstein

“Intelligenceistheabilitytoadapttochange.”StephenHawking

“Firsttheyignoreyou,thentheylaughatyou,thentheyfightyou,thenyouwin.”MahatmaGandhi

ThreeWiseMen


FoundationalObservations

• The universe illustrates expansion and contraction on a grand scale; subsequently, the solar system, earth, and the inhabitants of the Earth do also.

• With respect to scale, humans are extremely small in relation to the universe, solar system, and the planet Earth.

• The earth’s processes are very cyclical.• Human beings subconsciously align to the cyclical nature of the Earth.• The mammalian design and limbic system of the human brain cause humans to “herd” or behave

“collectively“ as a group.• Humans subconsciously and consciously align according to mood, mindset, and behavior.• Birds, insects, fish, and mammals exhibit collective behavior but humans are exceptionally good

at it due to their brain’s neocortex.• The “collective behavior” of human beings appears to be cyclical through time.• The current “mindset” is linear thinking (e.g. Everything will continue to rise)• A cycle consists of an expansion and contraction phase in mood, mindset, and behavior.• The Dow-Gold Ratio exhibits three symmetrical cycles since 1913.• It is hypothesized that the Dow-Gold Ratio has served as a “barometer” for collective human

behavior over the past 100 years defining the Dow-Gold Ratio Cyclicity Theory (DGRCT)


How do humans think?


ChaoticTime:

CyclicalTime:

LinearTime:

WaysofThinkingAboutTime“TheFourthTurning”,WilliamStrauss&NeilHowe

“Overthemillennia,manhasdevelopedthreewaysofthinkingabouttime:chaotic,cyclical,andlinear.”


ChaoticTime:• Historyhasnopath.• Eventsfollowoneanotherrandomly.

CyclicalTime:• Repetition.• Cyclicaltimeisendless;yetalsoendlesslycompletedandrenewed.• Withoutsomenotionofhistoricalrecurrence,noonecanmeaningfuldiscuss

thepastatall.

LinearTime:• Timeasaunique(andusuallyprogressing)storywithanabsolute

beginningandanabsoluteend.• Thejourneyneverrepeats.• Tolinearist,thefuturecanoftenbereducedtostraight‐lineextrapolationof

therecentpast.• Beliefinindefinitescientific,economic,andpoliticalimprovement.• Americahascometoembodythemostextremeexpressionofprogressive

linearism.• ThusarosethedogmaofAmericanexceptionalism,thebeliefthatthisnation

anditspeoplehadsomehowbrokenloosefromanyriskofcyclicalregress.• Whenthingsgowell,thisweaknessisnoproblem.Butwhenthingsgobadly,

thelinearviewcancrack.

WaysofThinkingAboutTime“TheFourthTurning”,WilliamStrauss&NeilHowe


What natural laws impact us daily?


Cycles

Source: https://solarcycles.net/portfolio/the-big-picture/

Nature is dominated by cycles and human life is subservient to many such cycles. Seasons, tides, sunspots, geysers, migrations,heart beats, wing beats, menstruation, respiration, births and deaths, sound waves, rotation of galaxies, sleep and Ice Ages areall examples of cycles in nature, and there are many, many more.

As humans we cycle relentlessly with heartbeat, respiration and other biological rhythms. But this cyclical subservience is found in all arenas and on all timescales. Day and Night, and the cycles of sleep and activity. Weekdays and Weekend (division of time based on Earth’s orbit of the sun), and the cycles of work and play. Seasons, and the cycles of agriculture, animal migration and human activities (traditions, cultural and sporting events that cycle with the Earth’s orbit of the sun). Lifetimes, the cycle of reproduction, and the societal cycle of education – work – retirement.

There are lunar cycles and the associated cycles of nocturnal illumination and tidal movement. There are solar cycles and the associated cycles of geomagnetic storms and earthquakes. There are cycles of temperature, of winds, of storms, and their influence on animals and plants.

It should come as no surprise that we then observe cycles in systems of human construction, which may be abstractions of nature but are still ultimately of nature. Business cycles in economics, asset and sentiment cycles in financial markets, arguably war and peace cycles.

Understand that no cycle lasts forever. Our sun will eventually expand and consume the nearest planets and then collapse into a dwarf star. But for forecasting over months, years or decades, these cycles are effectively permanent. The dominance of cyclical phenomena in all things makes the future much more predictable.

In short, nature is dominated by cycles. Human life and human systems are subservient to and synchronized to these cycles.


“IfindthatwheneverIstarttalkingaboutcycles,particularlythelong‐termvariety,IraiseeyebrowsandelicitreactionssimilartothoseI’dexpectifIweretalkingaboutastrology.Acycleisnothingmorethanalogicalsequenceofeventsleadingtoarepetitious pattern.Inamarket‐basedeconomy,cyclesofexpansions increditandcontractions increditdriveeconomiccyclesandtheyoccurforperfectlylogicalreasons.”

RayDalio,69thrichestpersonintheworld

“Historydoesnotrepeatitself,butitrhymes.”MarkTwain

“Thosewhocannotrememberthepastarecondemnedtorepeatit.”GeorgeSantayana

“Sothestoryofmanrunsinadrearycircle,becauseheisnotyetmasteroftheearththatholdshim.”WillDurant

“Thatisthekeytohistory.Terrificenergyisexpended‐ civilizationsarebuiltup‐ excellentinstitutionsdevised;buteachtimesomethinggoeswrong.Somefatalflawalwaysbringstheselfishandthecruelpeopletothetopanditallslidesbackintomiseryandruin.”

C.S.Lewis

“Thereareonlypatterns,patternsontopofpatterns,patternsthataffectotherpatterns.Patternshiddenbypatterns.Patternswithinpatterns.Ifyouwatchclose,historydoesnothingbutrepeatitself.Whatwecallchaosisjustpatternswehaven'trecognized.Whatwecallrandomisjustpatternswecan'tdecipher.Whatwecan'tunderstandwecallnonsense.Whatwecan'treadwecallgibberish.Thereisnofreewill.Therearenovariables.”

ChuckPalahniuk,“Survivor”

ThoughtsOnCycles


SineWave

Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sine_wave#/media/File:Sine_and_Cosine.svg

Thesinewaveorsinusoidisamathematicalcurvethatdescribesasmoothrepetitiveoscillation.Itisnamedafterthefunctionsine,ofwhichitisthegraph.Itoccursofteninpureandappliedmathematics,aswellasphysics,engineering,signalprocessingandmanyotherfields.

Thesinewaveappearsinnature,humanphysiology,andfinancialmarketsinsimilarformandcyclicity.


Expansion&Contraction

• EXPANSION: the act of becoming bigger or of making something bigger; the act of expanding (Merriam-Webster)

• CONTRACTION: the act or process of making something smaller or of becoming smaller (Merriam-Webster)

AMPLITUDE

SINEWAVE

TIME

Expansion

Contraction

Expansion

Contraction


BusinessCycles

Generally,thefollowingphasesofbusinesscycleshavebeendistinguished:1.Expansion(Boom,UpswingorProsperity)2.Peak(upperturningpoint)3.Contraction(Downswing,RecessionorDepression)4.Trough(lowerturningpoint)

GDP

BUSINESSCYCLE

TIME

PEAK PEAK

TROUGHTROUGH

CONTRACTION EXPANSION CONTRACTION


Cyclicity

“Thequalityorstateofbeingcyclic.”Merriam-Webster


Perception

WhenLinearExtrapolationFails

Reality


How and why do humans behave collectively?


COLLECTIVEHUMANBEHAVIOR


CollectiveBehavior

The expression collective behavior was first used by Robert E. Park (1921), and employed later by Herbert Blumer (1939), Ralph Turner and Lewis Killian (1957), and Neil Smelser (1962) to refer to social processes and events which do not reflect existing social structure (laws, conventions, and institutions), but which emerge in a "spontaneous"way. Use of the term has been expanded to include reference to cells, social animals like birds and fish, and insects including ants. Collective behavior takes many forms but generally violates societal norms (Miller 2000, Locher 2002). Collectivebehaviorcanbetremendouslydestructive,aswithriotsormobviolence,silly,aswithfads,oranywhereinbetween. Collective behavior is always driven by groupdynamics, encouraging people to engage in acts they might consider unthinkable under typical social circumstances (Locher 2002). Turner and Killian (1957) were the first sociologists to back their theoretical propositions with visual evidence in the form of photographs and motion pictures of collective behavior in action. Prior to that sociologists relied heavily upon eyewitness accounts, which turned out to be far less reliable than one would hope. Turner and Killian's approach is based largely upon the arguments of Blumer, who argued that social "forces" are not really forces. The actor is active: He creates an interpretation of the acts of others, and acts on the basis of this interpretation.

Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_behavior


HumanLimbicSystem

• A complex set of brain structures located on both sides of the thalamus, right under the cerebrum.

• The limbic system supports a variety of functions including epinephrine flow, emotion, behavior, motivation, long-term memory, and olfaction.

• Emotionallife is largely housed in the limbic system, and it has a great deal to do with the formation of memories.

Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limbic_system

Cross‐sectionofhumanbrainshowingpartsofthelimbicsystem.

Source:http://d4nations.com/webpubl/articles/the-limbic-system.html


Swarm,Crowd,&HerdBehavior

INSECTS BIRDS FISH

MAMMAL

Swarm Flock Schools:swarm,migrate,circulate

Herd Herd Herd

MAMMAL MAMMAL


CollectiveHumanBehavior

"Men,ithasbeenwellsaid,thinkinherds;itwillbeseenthattheygomadinherds,whiletheyonlyrecovertheirsensesslowly,andonebyone.“CharlesMcKay,“ExtraordinaryPopularDelusionsandtheMadnessofCrowds”,Published1841


Now lets explore a theory where the Dow-Gold Ratio serves as a barometer for collective human behavior.


TheDow‐GoldRatio


Dow‐GoldRatio

TheDow‐GoldRatioisasimpleindexwheretheDowJonesIndustrialAverageisdividedbythepriceofoneounceofgold.Explaineddifferently,itisthenumberofouncesofgoldittakestobuyoneshareoftheDow.

EXAMPLESFROMCYCLEPEAKSANDBOTTOMS• August,1929

• DJIA:380• Gold:$20.72• DowGoldRatio:18.36

• February,1933• DJIA:51• Gold:$26.47• DowGoldRatio:1.94

• January,1966• DJIA:984• Gold:$35.31• DowGoldRatio:27.85

• August,1999• DJIA:10,829• Gold:$257• DowGoldRatio:42.19


Dow‐GoldRatio– 215Years

FormationoftheFederalReserveandFederalRegionalBanks‐ 1913

FIATCAPITALERAGOLDSTANDARDERA

Upwardtrendwithmodestgrowthand

corrections.

Volatileboomsandbusts.

Modifiedfrom:


CyclesDefinedByTheDow‐GoldRatio

Cycle11914‐1942

Cycle21942‐1980

Cycle31980‐?

Expansion Expansion ExpansionContraction Contraction ContractionContraction

TheDow‐GoldRatiodefinesthreerepetitivesymmetricalcyclesoverthepast100years.



AMPLITUDE

SINEWAVE

TIME

CYCLE#1

CYCLE#2

CYCLE#3


Dow‐GoldRatioCyclicityModel

CYCLE#1

CYCLE#2

CYCLE#3

28.3Years

37.8Years

?Years

1914 1942 1980

1929

1966

1999

TheDow‐GoldRatiodefinesthreerepetitivesymmetricalcyclesoverthepast100years.



15.59Years55%ofcycle

12.67Years

45%ofcycle

23.77Years

63%ofcycle

14.06Years

37%ofcycle

19.47Years

?Years

Cycle2Contraction

Cycle3Contraction

Cycle1Contraction

Cycle1Expansion

Cycle2Expansion

Cycle3Expansion



Cycle2Contraction

Cycle3Contraction

Cycle1Contraction

Cycle1Expansion

Cycle2Expansion

Cycle3Expansion

15.59Years55%

12.67Years45%

23.77Years63%

14.06Years37%

19.47Years

?Years

DJIA:509%SP500:260%Gold:8%

DowGold:518%

DJIA:‐71%SP500:‐74%Gold:64%

DowGold:‐85%

DJIA:869%SP500:1090%

Gold:4%DowGold:895%

DJIA:‐10%SP500:19%Gold:1820%Oil:244%

DowGold:‐95%

DJIA:1136%SP500:1097%Nasdaq:1594%Gold:‐62%Silver:‐31%Oil:‐37%

DowGold:3166%



Cycle2Contraction

Cycle3Contraction

Cycle1Contraction

Cycle1Expansion

Cycle2Expansion

Cycle3Expansion

18.4

3.0 2.8

27.9

1.3

42.2

5.4

8.9

16.6

1.9

3.4

6.2

Symmetryandrepeatability



18.4

27.9

1.3

42.2

1.9‐94.5%=

2.3DJIA/GoldDJIA=10,500,Gold=$4565DJIA=6800,Gold=$2956DJIA=3400,Gold=$1478

‐98%=1.0DJIA/GoldDJIA=8000,Gold=$8000DJIA=6800,Gold=$6800DJIA=4750,Gold=$4750

‐83%=7.0DJIA/Gold

DJIA=14,000,Gold=$2000DJIA=10,500,Gold=$1500DJIA=7000,Gold=$1000

Paralleltrajectories


How does the Dow-Gold Ratio align with a sine wave model?


TheDow‐GoldRatio&A36YearSineCurve



CYCLE#1

CYCLE#2

36Years

36Years

36Years

CYCLE#3

Cyclepeaksoccurapproximately33‐37yearsapart.



March2016

36YearCycles

Correlativecyclepoints


WhereWe’veBeen,WhereWeMightGo

YouAreHere


36YearCycles,FinancialPanics,&LargeU.S.Wars

1907

CivilWar

RevWar

WWII

1884

1901

GreatDepression

OilShock

S&LCrisis

1987

WWI

SubPrimeMortgage

Warof

1812

187318371797‐1800

1819 18571890 1893

1896

1920

1792

FinancialPanic


Dow‐GoldRatioCyclicityTheory(DGRCT)

ABarometerforHumanMood,Mindset,andBehavior


Lets explore how the Dow-Gold Ratio aligns with mood, mindset and collective human behavior.


Mood,Mindset,andBehavior

Moodandmindsetdrivebehavior.

Mood:• astateorqualityoffeelingataparticulartime.• adistinctiveemotionalqualityorcharacter• aprevailingemotionaltoneorgeneralattitude.• aframeofminddisposedorreceptive,astosomeactivityorthing.Mindset:• anattitude,disposition,ormood.• anintentionorinclination.Behavior:• mannerofbehavingoracting.• observableactivityinahumanoranimal.• theaggregateofresponsestointernalandexternalstimuli.• astereotyped,species‐specificactivity,asacourtshipdanceorstartlereflex.• theactionorreactionofanymaterialundergivencircumstances.

Source:www.dictionary.com


TheProgressionThroughMood,Mindset,andBehavior

MOOD MINDSET BEHAVIOR


TheDow‐GoldRatioCyclicityModel:Mood&Mindset

Mood&MindsetExpansionPhase:

• Happy• Greedy• Optimistic

ContractionPhase:• Angry• Fearful• Pessimistic

Expansion Contraction

Dow‐GoldRatio

CycleBegins CycleEnds

CyclePeak

TIME

Inthiscontext,expansionandcontractionphasesdefineandrelatetothemood,mindset,andcollectivebehaviorofhumans.Financialexpansionsdotypicallyoccurinexpansionphaseswhilefinancialcontractionstypicallyoccurduringcontractionphases.


TheDow‐GoldRatioCyclicityModel:Behavior

BehaviorExpansionPhase:• Risktaking• Trusting• Consumption:Nicetohave• Bestinvestment:Equities• Geography:Spreadout;growthinsuburbs• Corporations:Spinoffs,expansion,acquisitions• Entrepreneurialspirit

ContractionPhase:• Riskaverse• Lackoftrust• Consumption:Musthave• Bestinvestment:Commodities• Geography:Movebackin;urbanrenewal• Corporations:Mergers• Corporateloyalty


Dow‐GoldRatio

CycleBegins CycleEnds

CyclePeak

TIME


How do collective human emotions evolve through the cycle?


TheCyclicityofCollectiveHumanEmotions

TIME

OPTIMISM

EXCITEMENT

THRILL

EUPHORIA ANXIETY

DENIAL

FEAR

PANIC

CAPITULATIONDESPONDENCY HOPE

RELIEF

OPTIMISM

THRILL

EUPHORIA ANXIETY

EXCITEMENT

DEPRESSION


Expansion ContractionHOPE

RELIEF

Cycle

DESPERATION


TheDow‐GoldRatio&TheCyclicityofCollectiveHumanEmotions

Cycle11914‐1942 OPTIMISM

EXCITEMENT

THRILL

EUPHORIA

ANXIETY

DENIAL

FEAR

DESPERATION

PANIC

CAPITULATION

HOPE

RELIEF

DESPONDENCY

DEPRESSION

1929

Expansion

Contraction


TheDow‐GoldRatio&TheCyclicity ofCollectiveHumanEmotions

Cycle21942‐1980


OPTIMISM

EXCITEMENT

THRILL

EUPHORIA

ANXIETY

DENIAL

FEAR

DESPERATION

PANIC

CAPITULATION

HOPE

RELIEF

DESPONDENCY

DEPRESSION

1966


TheDow‐GoldRatio&TheCyclicity ofCollectiveHumanEmotions

OPTIMISM

EXCITEMENT

THRILL

EUPHORIA

ANXIETY

DENIAL

FEAR

DESPERATION

PANIC

CAPITULATIONHOPE

RELIEF

Cycle31980‐?

DESPONDENCY

DEPRESSION


1999 ?


APPLICATIONOFTHETHEORYTheDow‐GoldRatioServesAsABarometer

forCollectiveHumanBehavior


Lets examine the mood, mindset, and behavior through all three cycles.


Dow‐GoldRatio:Mood,Mindset,andBehavior‐ Events

1929

Mindset:WarisdestructiveBehavior:WWIends

Mindset:WomenshouldbeequalBehavior:19th Amendment,Womenvote

Mindset:AlcoholisdestructiveBehavior:18th Amendment,Alcoholprohibited

Mindset:CooperationBehavior:Steelstrikeends

Mindset:CooperationBehavior:Kellogg‐Briandpact"outlawing"war

Mindset:InnocenceBehavior:MickeyMousedebuts

Mindset:CooperativecompetitionBehavior:1st WinterOlympics

ExpansionMood:Happy,Greedy,Optimistic

Mindset:CreativeexpressionBehavior:Talkingmovies

Mindset:InnocenceBehavior:WinnieThePoohdebuts

Cycle11914‐1942



1929

Mindset:IwanttotakeovertheworldBehavior:WWIIbegins

Mindset:IwanttocontrolbootleggingBehavior:St.ValentinesDayMassacre

Mindset:StocksareriskyinvestmentsBehavior:Stockmarketcrash

Mindset:BadpeoplemustbepunishedBehavior:AlCaponeconvicted

Mindset:MakeGermanygreatagainBehavior:Hitlerelectedchancellor

Mindset:IwanttotakeovertheworldBehavior:MussoliniinvadesEthiopia

Mindset:IwanttotakeoverAsiaBehavior:JapaninvadesChina

Mindset:IwanttokillsomebodyBehavior:IshotbutmissedFDR

Mindset:BadpeopleshouldbepunishedBehavior:Alcatrazopens;Bonnie/Clydekilled

Mindset:IwanttotakeovertheworldBehavior:Stalin’sgreatpurge

Mindset:DefendagainstevilBehavior:EinsteinwritesFDRaboutatomicbomb

Mindset:OursistheperfectraceBehavior:Auschwitzopens

Mindset:AmericansareevilBehavior:PearlHarbor

ContractionMood:Angry,Fearful,Pessimistic

Cycle11914‐1942



Cycle21942‐1980

Mindset:WarisdestructiveBehavior:WWIIends

Mindset:WarisdestructiveBehavior:KoreanWarends

Mindset:MusicmakespeoplehappyBehavior:Elvisreleases1st hit

Mindset:AyoungpresidentwouldbegoodforthecountryBehavior:JohnF.Kennedyelectedpresident,Camelot

1966

Mindset:EverymanisequalBehavior:Righttovoteforblacks,VotingRightsActof1965

Mindset:IamdefeatedBehavior:Hitlercommitssuicide

Mindset:ThiswarmustendBehavior:Atomicbombs




Cycle21942‐1980

Mindset:IwanttokillsomebodyBehavior:IshotMLK&RFK

Mindset:IwanttokillsomebodyBehavior:IshotPres.Kennedy

Mindset:IwanttogotowarBehavior:EscalationofVietnamforU.S.

Mindset:IwanttodefeattheU.S.Behavior:FallofSaigon

Mindset:IhatetheU.S.Behavior:Iranianhostages

Mindset:IwanttopunishTheWestBehavior:OPECoilembargo

Mindset:WehateIsraelBehavior:YomKippurwarbegins

Mindset:ThepresidentisaliarBehavior:Nixonresigns

1966

Mindset:IwanttorebelBehavior:Woodstock

Mindset:IhatethegovernmentBehavior:Chicago7protests

Mindset:IwanttoprotestBehavior:KentStateriot

Mindset:IhateIsraelBehavior:MunichOlympicshostages

Mindset:Righttolifevswoman’srightBehavior:RoevsWade

Mindset:IwanttokillpeopleBehavior:Bundyserialkillingspreebegins

Mindset:IwanttokillpeopleBehavior:Cambodiangenocidecommences

Mindset:IwanttokillpeopleBehavior:SonofSamserialkillingspreebegins

Mindset:IwanttocontrolpeopleBehavior:Jonestownmassacre

Mindset:IwanttokillsomebodyBehavior:IshotJohnLennon

Mindset:IwanttokillsomebodyBehavior:Assassinationattempts‐PopeandReagan

ContractionMood:Angry,Fearful,Pessimistic

Mindset:IwanttobetreatedequallyBehavior:MarchonSelma


Mindset:I’mgoingtoinvestsomemoneyBehavior:IboughtaDotComstock


Cycle31980‐?

Mindset:I’mgoingtoberich!!Behavior:IboughtseveralDotComstocks

Mindset:IwanttocheatonmywifeBehavior:Ihadsexualrelationswithanintern

1999

Mindset:IwanttoconnectwiththeworldBehavior:1st internetdomainname

Mindset:IwantpeaceBehavior:Gorbachevannouncesglasnostandperestroika

Mindset:WorldpeaceBehavior:“WeAreTheWorld”released

Mindset:WewantfreedomBehavior:FallofBerlinwall

Mindset:IwanttoconnectwiththeworldBehavior:WorldWideWebinvented

Mindset:DotherightthingBehavior:Mandelafreed

Mindset:WewantfreedomBehavior:CollapseofSovietUnion



Mindset:IhatetheUnitedStatesBehavior:IcrashedaplaneintotheWorldTradeCenter


Cycle31980‐?

Mindset:ComputersmightstopfunctioningBehavior:Y2KNewYearsEvedecisions

Mindset:Idon’tlike“TheWest”Behavior:Paristerroristbombing

Mindset:RevengeBehavior:U.S.invadesAfghanistan

Mindset:WeneedtocontrolyouroilBehavior:U.S.invadesIraq

Mindset:Idon’tlikethegovernmentBehavior:Syrianunrestbegins

ContractionMood:Angry,Fearful,PessimisticMindset:Idon’tlikemygovernment

Behavior:ArabSpringriots

Mindset:Ihatepoliticians.Behavior:Trump&Sanderssurprise

Mindset:Thestockmarketisrigged.Behavior:Stockselloffduetomortgagecrisis

1999

Mindset:Iwanttokillsomebody.Behavior:IkilledstudentsatColumbineHS

Mindset:MonopoliesarebadBehavior:FederalrulingtosplitMicrosoft

Mindset:YugoslaviangenocideBehavior:NATOattacksSerbia


Dow‐GoldRatioandMajorFearEvents

ContractionExpansion

Cycle#3

www.einhawk.comY2K

911/Afghanistan

Iraq

WarOnTerror/BinLaden

GlobalWarming&ClimateChangearedenotingtheGooglesearchpeak.

ClimateChange

GlobalWarming/AxisofEvil

Syria

ISIS/ZikaEbola

FlashCrashArabSpring

SubprimeMortgage


Cycle3– FearEvents

Cycle3OsamaBinLaden Ebola

al‐Qaeda

ISIS

GoogleTrends– ComparableSearches

Taliban

Documents

Cyclicity The Collective Human Experience