Current status of development of TIGGE products and support to SWFDP

KYOUDA Masayuki1,YAMAGUCHI Munehiko2, and MATSUEDA Mio3

1: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)2: Meteorological Research Institute of JMA (MRI/JMA)3: University of Oxford and MRI/JMA

10th THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE Working Group meetingBoulder, NCAR and NOAA/ESRL

25 – 27 June, 2012

Contents• SWFDP in Southeast Asia

– as a GIFS/TIGGE FDP

• GIFS/TIGGE product for SWFDP provided from MRI/JMA– Tropical Cyclone (TC)–related product– High impact weather (HIW)-related product

• Improvement on support to SWFDP– Provision of HIW-related product to SWFDP– Change of working area– For a near real-time basis

2

SWFDP in Southeast Asia as a GIFS/TIGGE FDP

3

Target Severe Weather EventsThe following events are focused in order of decreasing

priority and associated hazards such as flooding, landslides, high waves and swell:

• tropical cyclone (both from the South China Sea and from the Bay of Bengal) track, intensity, structure changes and landfall process (wind and gust, rainfall and storm surge);

• heavy rain triggered by tropical cyclones, SW and NE monsoon, troughs and ITCZ migration, and orography;

• thunderstorms and hail associated with severe convection;• cold conditions and frost;• extreme hot and dry conditions associated with föhn effect.

4

SWFDP in SOUTHEAST ASIA• Participating Centres

– Global Centres : CMA, JMA, and KMA– Regional Centres : Viet Nam (Regional Forecast Support Centre), RSMC

Tokyo, RSMC New Delhi (tropical cyclone forecasting support), and HKO (training and technical support)

– NMCs : Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., Thailand, and Viet Nam

5The red-colored rectangle is the target domain for SWFDP-SeA.

• Field phase– Period : One-year period from

Summer 2012 to Summer 2013

– Target Severe Weather– Tropical cyclone both

from the South China Sea and from the Bay of Bengal

– Heavy rain

Presentation at Regional Training Workshop (1)

6

Presentation at Regional Training Workshop (2)

7

TC-related product for SWFDP at MRI/JMA

8

• A WWRP-RDP project “North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project (NWP-TCEFP) ” intends to build on the TIGGE concept and take advantage of the TIGGE CXML data provided by multiple organizations for improving tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast skill over the North western Pacific, starting from 2009, as a five-year project.

• The objectives of the NWP-TCEFP Project are:- to explore and develop effective ways of obtaining and utilizing the track

forecast data from TIGGE data providers to improve medium range forecast of TC track forecast

- to develop software for a real time multi-model TC forecasting system from data transfer to verification

- to evaluate the utility of multi-model forecasts of TC track predictions and provide recommendations on future multi-model ensemble systems and on future GIFS-RDPs

9

NWP-TCTEF Project

List of available products - TC track -

Deterministic forecast Ensemble forecast

Strike Probability Point Strike Probability

11

CMA

MSC EMCWF

STI

JMA

KMA

NCEP

Meteorological Research Institute

Meteorological Research Institute

Regional Centre Hanoi

Regional Centre Hanoi

National Met. CentresNational Met. CentresCambodia

Lao P.D.R. Vietnam

Thailand

UKMO

Multi-CentresGrand Ensemble

GIFS ProductsDailySevere Weather ForecastingGuidance

Feedback- Evaluation of usefulness in forecasting operation

Testify GIFS Products for

Operational Use

12

Progress to date2010/04 The first release of the Web site for the Project2010/10 Major update of the Web site2010/10 WMO sent the letter to PRs of the Typhoon Committee

Members on the Project and Web page2010/11 Presentation of the Web site at the IWTC-6 in La Reunion2011/08 Presentation of the Web site at the THORPEX GIFS/TIGGE

WG meeting in Geneva2011/12 TCS sent the questionnaire to the TC Members on the Web

site2012/01 TCS received the replies of the questionnaire from 13 TC

Members

13

Original source : Progress report for NWP-TCEFP at ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee – 44th session, Hangzhou, China

Results of the questionnaire

14Original source : Progress report for NWP-TCEFP at ESCAP/WMO

Typhoon Committee – 44th session, Hangzhou, China

HIW-related product for SWFDP at MRI/JMA

15

http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/tigge_extreme_prob.html

http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/tigge_SWFDP.html (for SWFDP regions)

precipitationwindtemperature

13 areas including4 SWFDP areas

thresholds for prob. forecasts

Forecast timeup to +15 days

Updated everyday!(2-day delay)

Multi-center grand ensemble

Specification of HIW-related TIGGE product

16

Mul

ti-ce

nter

gra

nd e

nsem

ble

Verification results of HIW-related TIGGE product

17

Multi-centre grand ensembleshows a better relationship between forecast and observed probabilities (is less overconfident) than single-centre ensembles.

Improvement on support to SWFDP

18

ECMWFOxford Univ.

Data size: 2.5GB/day for ECMWF, JMA, NCEP and UKMO (prcp, t2m, u10m, and v10m on 1.25deg. grid)TIGGE portal: ECMWF

Until Feb. 2012: got TIGGE data and made products at MRISince Mar. 2012: get TIGGE data and make products at Oxford, and then transfer products to MRI web server

MRI/JMA

Total time: 4.5 hrs Data transfer to Oxford: 1hr

Make products @Oxford: 3hr Products transfer to MRI: 0.5hr

Total time: 12.5 hrs Data transfer to MRI: 8hr Make products @MRI: 3.5hr Products transfer to MRI: 0hr

morestable!

Provision of HIW-related TIGGE product for SWFDP

19

Change of working area• Presently, the TIGGE data transfer and the creation of all

TIGGE products are conducted at the University of Oxford.• Details of the data transfer are as follows:

• Data processing at ECMWF, an archieve centre, requires 60 minutes.• Data transfer from ECMWF to the University of Oxford requires 15

minutes.• It is because it takes quite a long time to get the TIGGE

gridded data from ECMWF at MRI.• In the case of MRI operation,

• Data processing at ECMWF requires 60 minutes.• Data transfer from ECMWF to MRI requires 7 HOURS.

? Geographical reason ?So hard to reduce the processing time anymore...

• MRI intends to continue providing its TIGGE products widely.

20

For a near real-time basis• TIGGE was well established to provide a new world-

wide service on distributing the operational NWP and EPS data.– especially on the assumption of data exchanging on a real

time.

• The THORPEX IPO should approve a near real-time TIGGE access for TIGGE product providers such as Met Office (potential) and MRI (current).– As well as UCAR and NCAR at a meningitis prediction pilot

study in the Sahel region of Africa.

21

Thank you for your kind attention.

22