Currency Daily Report, 6th February, 2013

7/29/2019 Currency Daily Report, 6th February, 2013

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Currencies Daily RepoWednesday| February 6, 201

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Content

Overview

US Dollar

Euro

GBP

JPY

Economic Indicators

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Fundamental Team

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Anish Vyas - Research Analyst

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Overview:
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Highlights

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 55.2-mark in January.

Spanish Services PMI increased to 47-level in the last month.

UK's Services PMI increased to 51.5-level in prior month.

European Retail Sales declined by 0.8 percent in December.

Asian markets are trading higher today on account of signs of

conomic recovery in the Euro Zone after favorable economic data inesterdays trading session.

US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing

urchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 0.9 points to 55.2-mark

n January as against a rise of 56.1-level in December. Investor's

usiness Daily (IBD) / TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics

TIPP) Economic Optimism increased by 0.8 points to 47.3-level in

ebruary from 46.5-mark in last month.

ndias HSBC Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by

.9 points to 57.5-mark in January as against a rise of 55.6-level in

December.

US Dollar Index

US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.1 percent yesterday as a result of

se in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in

emand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, positive economic

ata from the Euro Zone showed signs of economic recovery and ease

he regions debt crisis along with US equities trading on a positive

ote which acted as a negative factor for the currency.

However, sharp downside in the DX was cushioned on the back of

nfavorable non-manufacturing PMI data. The currency touched an

ntra-day low of 79.49 and closed at 79.53 on Tuesday.

Dollar/INR

he Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.5 percent in yesterdays trading

ession. The currency appreciated in the later part of the trade on

ccount of unexpected rise in the countrys services PMI data.

Additionally, rising foreign inflows along with government

isinvestment in NTPC Limited also acted as a positive factor for the

urrency, as around $300-$500 million of foreign inflows is expected

rom this transaction.

However, in the initial part of the trade the currency had depreciated

s a result of dollar demand from oil importers and weak global market

entiments. The currency touched an intra-day high of 52.99 and

losed at 53.02 on Tuesday.

or the month of January 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs 4,495.50 crores

$844.28 million) as on 5th

February 2013. Year to date basis, net

apital inflows stood at Rs.26,554.60 crores ($4,903.60 million) till 5th

ebruary 2013.

Outlook

rom the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate

n the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with

weakness in the DX. Also disinvestment in NTPC Ltd will also support

n upside in the currency.

Market Highlights (% change) as on February 5, 20

LastPrev.

dayWoW MoM

NIFTY 5956.9 -0.5 -1.5 -0.7

SENSEX 19659.8 -0.5 -1.7 -0.4

DJIA 13979.3 0.7 0.2 4.9

S&P 1511.3 1.0 0.2 3.0

FTSE 16712.3 1.0 -6.6 -4.2

KOSPI 1938.2 -0.8 -0.9 -2.7

BOVESPA 59445.0 -0.2 -1.6 -3.5

NIKKEI 11046.9 -1.9 -0.1 2.3

Nymex Crude

(Jan13) - $/bbl

96.64 0.5 -1.0 3.7

Comex Gold (Jan13)

- $/oz

1672.40 -0.2 -0.4 1.1

Comex Silver(Jan13)

$/oz

3185.90 0.5 2.2 4.7

LME Copper (3

month) -$/tonne

8288.25 0.0 2.2 5.6

CRB Index

(Industrial)

- - - -

G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% -

Yield

101.46 0.1 -0.5 -0.1

Source:

US Dollar (% change) as on February 5, 20

LastPrev.

dayWoW MoM

Dollar Index 79.53 -0.1 -0.1 -1.1

US $ / INR (Spot) 53.02 0.5 1.2 3.5

US $ / INR Feb13

Futures (NSE)

53.34 -0.25 -1.34 -3.60

US $ / INR Feb13

Futures (MCX-SX)

53.35 -0.23 -1.32 -3.59

Source:

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: T

Technical Outlook valid for February 6, 201

Trend Support Resis

US Dollar/INR Feb13

(NSE/MCX-SX)Down 53.20/53.05 53.55/


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Euro (% change) as on February 5, 2013

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

Euro /$ (Spot) 1.3582 0.5 0.7 3.8

Euro / INR (Spot) 71.93 0.1 0.4 0.0

Euro / INR Feb 13

Futures (NSE)

72.32 -0.26 -0.34 0.51

Euro / INR Feb13

Futures (MCX-SX)

72.3 -0.28 -0.34 0.50

Source: Re

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Tele

GBP (% change) as on February 5, 2013

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

$ / GBP (Spot) 1.5656 -0.7 -0.7 -2.5

GBP / INR (Spot) 83.237 -0.85 -1.69 -5.75

GBP / INR Feb13

Futures

(NSE)

84.04 -0.04 -1.13 -5.14

GBP / INR Feb

13 Futures

(MCX-SX)

84.04 -0.06 -1.15 -5.14

Source: Re

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Tele

uro/INR

he Euro appreciated by 0.5 percent yesterday on the back of Spanish

ervices Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 2.7 points to 47-

vel in January as against a rise of 44.3-mark in December. European

nal Services PMI rose by 0.3 points to 48.6-level in January as

ompared to earlier rise of 48.3-mark a month ago. Apart from that,

pbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX also

upported an upside in the currency.

alian Services PMI declined by 1.7 points to 43.9-mark in last month

om rise of 45.6-level on December. European Retail Sales declined by

8 percent in December with respect to rise of 0.1 percent in prior

onth. Italian Prelim Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 0.2 percent in

nuary from rise of 0.3 percent in December. The Euro touched an

tra-day high of 1.3597 and closed at 1.3582 against dollar on Tuesday.

utlook

todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on account of

xpectations of favorable German factory orders data. Further, upbeat

obal market sentiments along with weakness in the DX will also act as

positive factor for the currency.

echnical Outlook valid for February 6, 2013

Trend Support Resistance

ro/INR Feb13

SE/MCX-SX)Sideways 72.06/71.85 72.40/72.60

BP/INR

he Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.7 percent in yesterdays trading

ession. However, sharp downside in the currency was prevented on the

ack of Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 2.6

oints to 51.5-level in January from earlier rise of 48.9-mark in

ecember.

Weakness in the DX also cushioned further fall in the currency. The

erling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5628 and closed at 1.5656

gainst dollar on Tuesday.

utlook

We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in todays

ade on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with

eakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency will be

apped as a result of Halifax House Price Index expected to come on a

egative note.

echnical Outlook valid for February 6, 2013


BP/INR Feb 13

SE/MCX-SX)Down 83.85/83.65 84.35/84.70


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JPY (% change) as on February 5, 2013

Last Prev day WoW MoM

JPY / $ (Spot) 93.61 1.4 3.2 7.6

JPY / INR (Spot) 0.5678 -1.78 -4.10 -8.89 -10

JPY 100 / INR Feb13

Futures (NSE)

57.26 -0.75 -4.34 -8.71 -10

JPY 100 / INR Feb13

Futures (MCX-SX)

57.25 -0.76 -4.35 -8.71 -10

Source:

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Te

Y/INR

e Japanese Yen depreciated by 1.4 percent yesterday on account of rise

risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in

mand for the low yielding currency.

e Yen touched an intra-day low of 93.65 and closed at 93.61 against

lar on Tuesday.

tlook

r the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk

petite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand

the low yielding currency.

chnical Outlook valid for February 6, 2013


/INR Feb 13

E/MCX-SX)Down 56.98/56.64 57.60/57.95

Economic Indicators to be released on February 6, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Halifax HPI m/m UK 1:30pm - -0.2% 1.3% Medium

German Factory Orders m/m Euro 4:30pm - 0.8% -1.8% Medium

Crude Oil Inventories US 9:00pm - 2.8M 5.9M Medium

Documents

Currency Daily Report, 6th February, 2013