PlanetaryVitalSigns,PlanetaryDecisions,PlanetaryIntelligence

PublicMistrustofGlobalTemperatureOceanHeat

RiskIndicatorsPlanetaryIntelligence

CharlesFKennel&StephenBriggs,SeminarpresentaGontoCentreforStudyofExistenGalRisk,UniversityofCambridge,February26,2016,incollaboraGon

withDavidVictor,SchoolofGlobalPolicyandStrategies,UCSD

GlobalTemperatureOurnaïveaRempttocommunicatehauntsusall.

Wemeasureandcomputeavastrangeofvariablesyetfocuspubliclyononenumberthatconveysthemisleadingimpressionthattheworldwarmsupuniformly,orthatincreasedtemperatureistheprimarymanifestaGonofclimatechange.Wethenusethishighlyimperfectindexoftheratehumansareadding

energytotheclimatesystemasourprimarycriterionforwhetherwearemakingprogress.

Globaltemperaturegetsusintohotwater

TheHockeySGckGlobalTemperatureinthelastmillennium

Empiricaladjustmentsofecologicalproxyandthermometerdata

MichaelE.Mann,“TheHockeySGckandtheClimateWars:dispatchesfromthefrontlines”,ColumbiaUniversityPress,2012

HiatusGreenhousewarmingnotshowingupinsurfacetemperature

Modelsworkbefore2000butnotaYerInterdecadalPacificOscillaGon?

AnomaliesarefromthreeupdatedobservaGonaldatasetsandtheensemblemean(blackcurve)and10–90%range(darkergreyshading)GMSTof124simulaGonsfrom41CMIP-5modelsusingRCP4.5extensionsfrom2005.

Fyfe,J.C.etal,MakingSenseoftheearly2000swarmingslowdown,NatureClimateChange6,224–228(2016)doi:10.1038/nclimate2938Publishedonline24February2016.

Gaps between sparse data of different types taken at ill-assortedpoints far fromoneanother inspaceandGmemustbefilledinbymulG-parametermodelsconstructedfromotherdataandphysics-basedcalculaGons.Theresultsdepend ontheaccuracyandcompletenessofthemeasurements,the realismandprecisionofthemodels,andtherigorofthestaGsGcaltechniquesusedtomergedataandmodels.Progress is recursive. Improvements in observaGons,theoreGcal understanding,models, staGsGcal techniques, andcomputaGonal capacity produce new results that, treated asdatainsubsequentmodels,startthecycleofreanalysisagain.

Reanalysis

Asknowledgeimproves,thedatachange

SecondLawofReanalysis

Karl,ThomasR.,etal."PossiblearGfactsofdatabiasesintherecentglobalsurface

warminghiatus."Science348.6242(2015):1469-1472.

2015NOAAreanalysishasarousedpoliGcalsuspicionaswellasscienGficskepGcism

“Approximately300peopleincludingscienGsts,engineersandotherexperts,abouthalfwithdoctoratedegrees,havepeGGonedU.S.HouseScienceCommiReeChairmanLamarSmith,R-Texas,tocarefullyinvesGgatesuspiciouslyoverheatedclimatetemperaturebook-cookingbytheNaGonalOceanicAtmosphericAdministraGon(NOAA).”LarryBell,“StatsTamperingPutsNOAAinhotwater”,CATOInsGtute,Feb1,2016

Land-surface temperatures frommoreweatherstaGons+ adjusGngSST bias between ships and buoyslowered earlier data; inclusion of2014dataraisedlaterdata

Bynow,youarethinkingthattheaRribuGonissueisseRled,thatthedenialistphenomenonisoverexceptintheUS…thattheUShas

unusuallycrudewaysofdisplayingpoliGcalconflict…

WhatisshoutedloudlyinUSmediamaybequietlyheldelsewhere…

UnresolvedcogniGvedissonanceproducesresistancetotakingacGon,consciousorunconscious.

Trustisthecoinoftherealm

TheclimatescienceandtechnologycommunityhastriedsinceIPCCwasfoundedin1988todoallwithinitspowerstomakeitsresultstrustworthy.CouldwehavedoneabeRerjobwithtemperature?

Itisnotenoughtoberight

Theoceanstakeupmorethan90%oftheenergyadded to the climate system by humans. Theatmosphere,2%.The heat content of the ocean is our bestmeasureofhumanity’simpactontheclimate.ItsGmehistoryandgeographicaldistribuGonhelpusunderstandwhether the changes we are seeingare incidental or fundamental. It tells us howmuch climate risk we are storing up for thefuture.Fortunately,wecannowmeasureit.

Whydowelettheworldrelyontemperature?

Riser,StephenC.,etal."FiYeenyearsofoceanobservaGonswiththeglobalArgoarray."NatureClimateChange6.2(2016):145-153;ProjectARGOdeploymentcycle.

FigurecourtesyofMeganScanderbeg,ScrippsInsGtuGonofOceanography,UCSanDiego.

ProjectArgo

DistribuGonofARGOFloats

Thediagramisofcoursemisleading;thedataaresparse.Eachpointcorrespondsto3degx3degpixel(300kmx300kmapprox.).

Thesystemhasrecordedabout1.5MverGcalprofiles.

Gleckler,PeterJ.,etal."Industrial-eraglobaloceanheatuptakedoublesinrecentdecades,”NatureClimateChange”(2016).Also,Wijffels,Susan,etal."Ocean

temperatureschronicletheongoingwarmingofEarth."NatureClimateChange6.2(2016):116-118.

OceanHeat,1865-2015Halfofalloceanwarmingsince1865wasduringhiatus

OHCchangeesGmatescombiningclimatemodelswithdatafromthenineteenth-centuryChallengerexpediGon,amulG-decadalrecordofship-basedinsitumostlyupper-oceanmeasurements,themorerecentnear-globalArgofloatsprofilingtointermediate(2,000 m)depths,andfull-depthrepeatedtransoceanicsecGons.

Global surface temperature is the benchmarkthatallclimatemodelsaretunedto.WouldtheirperformanceimproveiftheywereconstrainedtoopGmizethewaytheyjointlysaGsfytemperatureandoceanheatcontentconstraints? Wouldthemodels beRer separate anthropogenic warmingfrom “natural variaGons”? Would decisionmakers have looked at both temperature andoceanheatcontentifthemodelershaddoneso?

WhatifOHChadalsobeenabenchmarkforclimatemodeling?

That an importantpolicydebatehasbeenhostage todelicateaspects of reanalysis shows how tricky reliance on a singleindicator can be. Had ocean heat content been as visible asglobal temperature, it would have made clear to all thathumansweresGlladdingenergytotheclimatesystem.Climatechange was not slowing down, only global surface warmingwas.Of course, ocean heat content data, indeed all climate Gmeseries,are fragile in thesamewayas temperaturehasproventobe.Butthatisthepoint.Whenallindicatorsarefragile,youshouldnotrelyonone;youriskover-focusingpolicyonit. Youlook at a number of different ones and ask whether they allpointinthesamegeneraldirecGon. Youlookatthebalanceofevidence.

Thiswholeepisodeistroubling

Ditchthe2-degreewarminggoalDavidG.VictorandCharlesF.Kennel,Nature,514,30–31(02October2014)doi:10.1038/514030a

Globaltemperatureamisleadingmetricofanthropogenicclimatechange2-degreessurpassedunlessglobaldeploymentofunprovencarbonremovaltechnologiesBusinessasusualunacceptable,butnoscienGficproofthat2degreesisthresholdofdanger

ClimateRiskFailuretomiGgateoradapttoclimatechange:thelargest

singlethreattotheglobaleconomy

ScienGstsdonotmakethedecisionsonclimate,poliGciansandbusinessleadersdo.

Theyrespondtotheriskstothingsthepubliccaresabout,nottheabstractthreatofclimatechange.

VitalSigns

Empiricalindicatorsofongoingchangeinkeyclimatesystems

DirectRisk

Theecologicaland/orsocietalimpactsofchangesin

contemporaryorfutureclimate

SystemicRiskQuery-basedextremeoutcome

probabiliGesWhatistheworstthingthatcan

happen?

LargeWeatherandOceanSystems

ThermalproperGes-Atmosphericandseasurfacetemperature,oceanheatcontentAtmosphericcirculaGon-meridionalheattransport,jetstreams,HadleyCell…OceaniccirculaGon-AntarcGcCurrent,BeaufortGyre,Kuroshio,GulfStream…Space-GmepaRerns-ENSO,IndianOceanDipole;PacificDecadal&ArcGcOscillaGons..ExtremeweathersystemaGcs-heatwaves,coldsnaps,storms,droughts,floods,…

RegionalGeophysicalSystemsCryosphere-Seaice,Greenland/AntarcGciceshelves,mountainglaciersandsnows,permafrost…Watersheds-rivernetworks,aquifers,deltas,sedimenttransport…CoastalZones-RelaGvesealevelrise,stormsurges,beacherosion,saltwaterintrusions

RegionalEcologicalSystemsBiomes-Deserts,chaparral,grassland,savannah,forest,tundra,marshlands…Biodiversity-speciesdistribuGonsandabundances,symbioses…Habitatchange-invasivespecies,migraGon….

RegionalTechnicalSystemsEcosystems-Agriculture,forestry,fisheries…WaterandAirSupplies-IrrigaGon,polluGon,dams,ExtremeEvents-Disasterresponseandcivilinfrastructure…EnergyServices-Electricitytransmission,hydroelectricpower,…

HumansHealth-Malaria,cholera,respiratorydisease,…Security-Food,water,energy,environmentalconflict,migraGon…Economics-Industries,trade,investment,insurance,…Welfare-SustainabledevelopmentMobility-Airandseatransport

• 

VitalSigns

DirectRisk

SystemicRisk

AdaptaGonKnowledgeCascade

CommonChallenge

TraceablepathwaysconnecGngindependentknowledgedomainsandontologies

MethodologicalIssues

Inherentlysparsedata,InhomogeneoussamplingIncommensuratedatatypes,noexplicitcausalconnecGons

Empiricalbinsandarbitraryformats;StaGsGcaloutliersunusuallyimportant;Needtouseexpertadvicewhereanalysisfails

BigdataBayesiananalyGcs

Thebasicrequirementisforthree-waycollaboraGonsamongexpertsinbigdataanalyGcs,climatemodeling,andin

environmentorsocialimpactareas.

HowelsecantherelaGvelysmallscience,policy,andtechnologycommunitydevelopthecapacitytoservemillionsofdecision-makersindozensofindustrialsectors,

hundredsofecologicallydisGnctecologicalregions,andthousandsofcommuniGeswithdifferentcultural,economic,andenvironmentalcharacterisGcs?

Climate-smartinfrastructure

SmartInfrastructure:AnnotatedsearchenginesGuidestotheinformaGonjungle

LivingannotaGonbyaglobalnetworkofqualifiedreviewersKnowledgesynthesesappearassoonassubjectmaRerismature

Levelsofdecisionreadinesscharacterized

Shouldwenotthinkinadvanceofanalways-onsocialandinformaGonnetworkthatprovides

decision-readyknowledgetothosewhoholdtheresponsibilitytoact,wherevertheyare,atGmesoftheirchoosing?Shouldn’twepreparethesocialinfrastructure-policies,governance,insGtuGons,financing-neededtoknitclimateknowledgeand

acGontogether?

KnowledgeAcGonNetwork

Kennel,CharlesF.,VeerabhadranRamanathan,andDavidG.Victor."Copingwithclimatechangeinthenexthalf-century."ProceedingsoftheAmericanPhilosophicalSociety156.4(2012):398-415.

Victor,DavidG.,CharlesF.Kennel,andVeerabhadranRamanathan."Theclimatethreatwecanbeat."

ForeignAffairs91.3(2012):112-121.

ThinkGloballyAnalyGctoolsand

standards

AssessRegionallyImpactsonregionalnatural&technical

systems

ActLocallyValuesand

vulnerabiliGes

GlobalKnowledgeAcGonNetworkKnowledgeneedstoberelatedtoacGon“horizontally”amongexpertsanddecisionmakersateachlevel,and“verGcally”,bothupanddown,through

theglobal,regional,andlocallevels.

C.F.Kennel,“KnowledgeAcGonNetworks”inSustainableHumanity,SustainableNature,Our

Responsibility,ProceedingsoftheJointWorkshop,PonGficalAcademiesofScienceandSocialScience,Extraseries41,VaGcanCity2015

Is it possible to use the tools at hand-observaGons from space and groundnetworks; demographic, economic andsocietal measures; big data staGsGcaltechniques; numerical models, andmoderncommunicaGons-toproduceglobalconGnuous awareness of the nature andevolvingrisksofclimatechange?

GlobalConGnuousAwareness

Mydear lady,hereatUCLAtheyfirstinterconnected computers. Soontherewillbeaworld-widenetwork.Itwill first be used to manage globalfinance, but the expansion ofeconomic acGvity it induces willcreate so much polluGon that it willbeaskedtomanageoureconomyandenvironment in harmony with oneanother. People will want day-by-day, minute-by-minute adapGvemanagement, for which they neitherhave the paGence or quickness ofmind. So they will connect theirenvironmental sensors directly totheir computer network. At thatpoint,theywillhavecreatedaplanetawareofitsowninternalprocesses,aplanetary consciousness. And that,dear lady, is what will communicatewithsimilarenGGesacrossthegalaxy.

DinnertableconversaGoninthe1970s,paraphrasedbyCharlesKennelin2016

WeareonthewaytobuildingMorrison’splanetary

consciousness.Wewillthinkweareaskingittodiagnosethe

planet’sills,butitmayconcludethatwearetheproblem….