CRTI Annual Project Review CRTI Project 02-0093 RDThursday, 8 June 2006

• Introduction Project Champion Dr Michel Béland – Project– Project Review Committee CRTI secretariat Mr Ted Sykes

• Project Review Project Manager, Richard Hogue– Project Recommendations– Project Background Information– Rolls of Project Partners – Project Status and Accomplishments – Schedule / Milestone Review– Financial Review – Costs to Date– Financial Review – Forecast Project Costs– Review of Constraints and Assumptions– Detailed Risk Review– Recovery Plan Schedule– Recovery Plan Financial– Project Summary and Conclusions– Summary of Actions– Project Recommendations

• Project Performance Feedback Project Champion Dr Michel Béland• Discussion (full Committee) Project Review Committee• Core Member Discussion and Decisions PRC Core Members• Action Review Project Manager• Close Project Champion Dr Michel Béland

AGENDA

Core Members:

Project Champion: Dr Michel Béland

Project Manager: Mr Richard Hogue

AECL Management Representative: Dr Ken Dortmuth

Health Canada Management Representative: Dr Jack Cornett

Environment Canada Management Representatives: Mr Michel Jean, Dr Keith Puckett, Dr Gilbert Brunet

Defence Research and Development Canada (Suffield) Dr Kent Harding

Associate Members:

Portfolio Manager: Mr Ted Sykes

Deputy Project Manager: Mr Réal D’Amours

Recording Secretary: Mr Richard Hogue

PROJECT REVIEW COMMITTEE

• Proceed with Project on recovery plan to meet Project Charter goals and to modify the Project Charter according to guidance received

• The recovery plan has three parts:

1. inclusion of PSTP funding that was approved back in July 2005 to extend the current project into 2007-08

2. inclusion of funds that were approved for roll-over in 2003-04 and 2004-05

these additional funds will be applied to

i) further improve modeling system and model validation,

ii) to perform inverse source determination (source reconstruction)

iii) exchange and collaborate with NARAC at LLNL.

3. adjustments to a few milestone completion dates and the addition to a few schedule tasks to breakdown the work until the end of the project

• There are also several minor changes to the charter.

PROJECT RECOMMENDATIONS

Questions/Decisions that the Project Team is requesting of the PRC:

• Strategy to pursue project using funds for CRTI-2

• other ?

PROJECT REVIEW COMMITTEE DECISIONS

The objective of this project is to develop and validate an integrated, state-of-the-art, high-fidelity multi-scale modeling system for the accurate and efficient prediction of urban flow and dispersion of CBRN materials.

Prototype to be ready in early 2007

Development of this proposed multi-scale modeling system will provide the capability to perform real-time modeling and simulation tool to predict injuries, casualties, and contamination and to make relevant decisions (based on the strongest technical and scientific foundations) to minimize the consequences based on a pre-determined decision making framework.

PROJECT BACKGROUND

Component 1: development of a “building aware” model for urban flow prediction (UrbanSTREAM)

Component 2: inclusion of subgrid-scale urban parameterization in meso-scale NWP model (GEM-LAM)

Component 3: coupling of microscale flow model with “urbanized” GEM-LAM.

Component 4: development of a lagrangian stochastic model for prediction of urban dispersion (UrbanLS).

Component 5: validation of fully coupled multi-scale modeling system for urban flow using field study verification data.

Component 6 (new): in the context of PSTP, collaboration work with US NARAC center (LLNL) and development of methodologies for determination of emission source distribution (source reconstruction).

PROJECT COMPONENTS

Mesoscale

Urban scale

Building scale

Mesoscale

Urban scale

Building scale

Source Type

Defines Flow Defines Dispersion

Chemical agent Biological agent

Fluid Dynamics Models Plume Dispersion Models

BCs

BCs

GEM/LAM

“Urbanized” GEM/LAM

urbanSTREAM

MLPD

urbanLSurbanEU

urbanLS

• CBR releases induces impacts over many spatial scales• Need multi-scale approach where flow and dispersion are performed within “nested” domains

Multi-scale CBRN Hazard Prediction Model for the Urban Environment

Radiological agent

urbanSTREAM

urbanGEM/LAM

Component 2

Component 11-way interaction

urbanLSurbanEU

Component 4

urbanBLSurbanAEU

Bayesian inference for inverse source

determination

Component 5 (whole system validation)

,,,,

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kjijii uuuuU

tiU ,

Component 3

Adaptive sampling strategy

PSTP supplementary funding

CRTI funding

Relationship between components

Collaboration withNARAC, etc.

Component 6 (new)

Project Partners

• Environment Canada / Meteorological Service of Canada– Canadian Meteorological Centre (Hogue et al. + MSC Quebec Region

(Benjamin)– Atmospheric and Climate Sciences Directorate (Bélair/Mailhot et al.)

• DRDC Suffield (Eugene Yee et al.)

• University of Waterloo (F.S. Lien et al.)

• University of Alberta (J.D. Wilson et al.)

• AECL (Phil Davis et al.)

• Health Canada – Radiation Protection Bureau

Components 1 and 4:

PROJECT STATUS AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS since November 2004 (last PRC)

Urban flow model (UrbanSTREAM): readyParallelization and optimization: work underwayBeing gradually implemented in CMC environmentValidation with Oklahoma City database: work underwaySome preliminary tests using GEM-LAM inflow conditions

Urban flow model (UrbanLS): readyParallelization and optimization: work underwayBeing gradually implemented in CMC environmentAdaptation underway to generate concentration fields and visualisation issuesValidation with Oklahoma City database: work underway

Joint Urban 2003 campain (Oklahoma City)

3-D rendering from ARCVIEW shape file

satellite photograph

Portion of OK City

Source #1

Wind from SSW, Source #1

Modeled and Predicted Mean Winds

ANL Minisodar (Botanical Gardens)

ANL Minisodar

FRD Sodar

PNNL Sodar used to inflow conditions for

urbanSTREAM

Concentration Field C

N

Source Location: South side of Park Avenue 35.46871667 ° N, 97.51556667 ° W

urbanEU

Component 2: “urbanized” version of GEM-LAM

PROJECT STATUS AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS since November 2004 (last PRC) (cont’d)

TEB in GEM-LAM: readySatellite derived methodology to produce land-use classification: ready Cascade strategy and tests (2.5km to 1km to 250m) :work underwayAnthropogenetic heat flux: work underway3D turbulence kinetic energy: in MC-2 but work underway to include in GEMValidation with Oklahoma City database: work underway

MUSE-1 (March-April 2005) and MUSE-2 (Febuary-March 2006) field studies : completed with great success. Data analysis work underway.

High buildingsMid-high buildingsLow buildingsVery low buildingsSparse buildingsIndustrial areas

Roads and parkingsRoad mixDense residentialMid-density residentialLow-density residentialMix of nature and built

SoilsCropsShort grassMixed forestMixed shrubsWater

Excluded

Oklahoma City 60-m resolution classification

N

Anthropogenic heat sources computed for summer

Temporal disaggregating based on Sailor’s works

Spatial disaggregating based on: Population density and road network for traffic sources

Industrial land use for industrial sources

Anthropogenic heat databaseApplication to Oklahoma City

0

2

4

6

8

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 243

4

5

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

Electricity consumption(summer)

Vehicular traffic(work day)

Time (LST) Time (LST)

Fract

ion

17:00 LST

Joint Urban 2003 ExperimentsJoint Urban 2003 Experiments

GEM-LAM 2.5 km

GEM-LAM 1 km

GEM-LAM 250 m

OKC

Incoming flow

15-kmRegional model

IC + LBC

IC + LBC

IC + LBC

TEB is used in 2.5 km, 1 km, and 250-m models

IOP6 (Daytime): Urban Heat IslandIOP6 (Daytime): Urban Heat Island(1-km Results)(1-km Results)

Rural Stations

Heat Island Index

ObsUrbanCrops

In red,

PWIDS stations used for model verification

City Center Stations

TEB does not make much differences over rural areas (expected!)

Significant improvement in the city (cooler in the day, warmer in the night)

Incoming and outgoing radiation

CNR1 radiometer Kipp & Zonen

Radiative surface temperatures

IR camera in heated case

Turbulent fluxes by eddy covariance 10Hz

3D sonic anemometer CSAT3

H2O/CO2 analyzer Li-Cor 7500

Fine wire thermocouple ASPTC

Air temperature and humidity in canyons

Radiative temperature of walls

Montreal Urban Snow Experiment (MUSE-2005)Montreal Urban Snow Experiment (MUSE-2005) (17 March to 14 April 2005)

20 m tower

Energy Budget AnalysisEnergy Budget Analysis

With snow No snow

RN

Residue

H

LE

RN

Residue

H

LE

S

S L

L

S

S L

L

Residue = Storage + snow melt – Anthropogenic heat fluxes

Components 3: coupling work … underway

Component 5: validation work…. underway

PROJECT STATUS AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS since November 2004 (last PRC) (cont’d)

• Scientific & Technical face-to-face meeting was held with all team members 24-25 August 2005.

• 2 project teleconferences were held with all team members

• Regular meetings/teleconferences were held within each main components of the project

• Following the resignation of Claude Pelletier last fall, Yufei Zhu was hired to work on the 3D-turbulence. Also, Cathy Xie was hired to work on the generation of geophysical fields

• Many presentations at conferences, technical notes and some peer-reviewed articles (list attached)

Project related publications and presentations on CFD and dispersion modeling:

Refereed Journal Papers (published or accepted):H. Ji, F.S. Lien and E. Yee, “An Efficient Second-Order Accurate Cut-Cell Method for Solving the Variable Coefficient Poisson Equation

with Jump Conditions on Irregular Domain”, International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids (in press, January, 2006).Refereed Journal Papers (submitted):K.J. Hsieh, F.S. Lien and E. Yee, “Numerical Modeling of Scalar Dispersion in an Urban Canopy”, submitted to Journal of Wind

Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics in May, 2005.F.S. Lien, E. Yee, H. Ji, A. Keats and K.J. Hsieh, “Progress and Challenges in the Development of Physically-Based Numerical Models

for Prediction of Flow and Contaminant Dispersion in the Urban Environment”, submitted to International Journal of Computational Fluid Dynamics (Special Issue) in October 2005.

A. Keats, E. Yee and F.S. Lien, “Bayesian Inference for Source Determination With Applications to a Complex Urban Environment”, submitted to Atmospheric Environment in May, 2006.

Conference Papers:F.S. Lien, E. Yee and H. Ji (2005), “Modelling Wind Flow and Turbulence in Complex Urban Canopies”, 9th Annual George Mason

University Conference on Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modelling, July 18-20, George Mason University, Fairfax, VG, USA.K.J. Hsieh, A. Keats, F.S. Lien, E. Yee (2005), “Scalar Dispersion and Inferred Source Location in an Urban Canopy”, 9th Annual George

Mason University Conference on Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modelling, July 18-20, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, USA.

F.S. Lien, E. Yee, H. Ji, A. Keats and K.J. Hsieh (2005), “Development of a High-Fidelity Numerical Model for Hazard Prediction in the Urban Environment” (Keynote Address), Proc. 13th Annual Conference of the CFD Society of Canada, July 31-August 3, 2005, St. John’s, Canada.

H. Ji, F.S. Lien and E. Yee (2006), “Parallel Adaptive Mesh Refinement Combined With Multigrid for a Poisson Equation”, Proc. 14th Annual Conference of the CFD Society of Canada, July 16-July 18, 2006, Kingston, Ontario, Canada.

A. Keats, F.S. Lien and E. Yee (2006), “Source Determination in Built-Up Environments Through Bayesian Inference With Validation Using the MUST Array and Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Experiments”, Proc. 14th Annual Conference of the CFD Society of Canada, July 16-July 18, 2006, Kingston, Ontario, Canada.

F.S. Lien, E. Yee and H. Ji (2006), “Modeling Wind Flow and Turbulence in Oklahoma City”, Proc. 4th International Symposium on Computational Wind Engineering, July 16-July 19, 2006, Pacifico Yokohama, Yokohama, Japan.

E. Yee, F.S. Lien, A. Keats, K.J. Hsieh and R. D’Amours (2006), “Validation of Bayesian Inference for Emission Source Distribution Retrieval Using the Joint Urban 2003 and European Tracer Experiments”, Proc. 4th International Symposium on Computational Wind Engineering, July 16-July19, 2006, Pacifico Yokohama, Yokohama, Japan.

OthersF.S. Lien, E. Yee, H. Ji, A. Keats and K.J. Hsieh (2006), “Application of CFD to Security Science: Progress on the Development of a High-

Fidelity Numerical Model for Hazard Prediction and Assessment in the Urban Environment”, to be published in CFD Society of Canada Bulletin #17.

Refereed Journal Papers (in preparation):A. Keats, E. Yee and F.S. Lien (2006), “Efficiently Locating and Characterizing the Source of an Active Tracer Through Bayesian

Inference”, to be submitted to Ecological Modelling.H. Ji, F.S. Lien and E. Yee (2006), “Parallel Adaptive Mesh Refinement Combined With Multigrid for a Poisson Equation”, to be submitted

to International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids.H. Ji, F.S. Lien and E. Yee (2006), “A Robust and Efficient Cartesian Grid Method Combined With Adaptive Mesh Refinement for Moving

Boundary Problems on Irregular Domains”, to be submitted to Journal of Computational Physics.K.J. Hsieh, F.S. Lien and E. Yee (2006), “Partially Resolved Numerical Simulation for Turbulent Flow Over an Array of Obstacles”, to be

submitted to Flow, Turbulence and Combustion. E. Yee and R. D’Armours (2006), “Application of Bayesian Probability Theory to Source Inversion for European Tracer Experiment”, to be

submitted to Theoretical and Applied GeophysicsThe Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP)E. Yee (2005) “Recent Progress on Modeling of Flows and Dispersion: From Canonical to Complex Flows”, TTCP CBR Group, Technical

Panel 9, Defence Science and Technology Organization, Melbourne, Australia, 31 January – 4 February 2005.E. Yee (2005) “Probabilistic Inference: An Application to Inverse Source Function Estimation”, TTCP CBR Group, Technical Panel 9,

Defence Science and Technology Organization, Melbourne, Australia, 31 January – 4 February 2005.E. Yee (2006) “Advances in Development of Emergency Response System for CBRN Prediction and Assessment in the Urban

Environment”, TTCP CBR Group, Technical Panel 9, US Army Dugway Proving Ground, 13-17 February 2006.E. Yee and R. D’Armours (2006) “Application of Bayesian Inference to Source Function Retrieval for European Tracer Experiment

(ETEX)”, TTCP CBR Group, Technical Panel 9, US Army Dugway Proving Ground, 13-17 February 2006.Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on CB DefenceE. Yee (2006) “Advanced Emergency Response System for CBRN Hazard Prediction and Assessment in the Urban Environment”,

International Task Force 49 Meeting (Battlespace Information Management Systems), Directorate of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Defence, Ottawa Ontario, July 11, 2006.

Other PresentationsE. Yee, “A Bayesian Approach for Reconstruction of the Characteristics of a Localized Pollutant Source by Spatially Distributed Electronic

Noses”, Moscow Colloquium, Science and Innovations Agency of the Russian Federation/Karpov Institute of Physical Chemistry, Moscow, June 19-21, 2006.

Publications and presentations on urban meteorological modeling

Refereed Journal Papers (published or accepted):Two short papers entitled “Country Report – Urban modeling at the Meteorological Service of Canada” by Mailhot et al. and

“Urban Project Report – The Montreal Urban Snow Experiments (MUSE)” by Bélair et al. have been puslished the April issue of the IAUC (International Association for Urban Climate) Newsletter.

Refereed Journal Papers (submitted):A paper entitled “Methodology of urban cover classification for atmospheric modeling” (Lemonsu, Leroux, Bélair, Trudel and

Mailhot) has been submitted to the journal “Remote Sensing of Environment”.

Conference or workshop Papers:Four presentations related to the CRTI Project have been done at the Coastal and Mountain Lab Workshop in Vancouver (25-27

January 2005) in the session on Urban Meteorology and Impacts.Five presentations related to the CRTI Project have been done at the 39th Annual CMOS Congress (31 May-3 June 2005 in

Vancouver). The presentations dealt with: 1) Parameterization of urban covers for mesoscale models (Lemonsu et al.); 2) Methodology of urban cover classification for atmospheric modeling (Lemonsu et al.); 3) Numerical simulations of the urban boundary layer observed during Joint Urban 2003 (Pelletier et al.); 4) Overview of the 2005 Montreal Urban Snow Experiment (MUSE-2005) (Benjamin et al.); 5) Computational modeling of 3D turbulent flows with MC2 (Pelletier et al.).

A presentation has been done at the RMetS 2005 Conference (11-16 September 2005 in Exeter UK): Urban modelling at the Meteorological Service of Canada (Lemonsu et al.).

Five presentations related to the CRTI Project have been done at the 89th AMS Annual Meeting (29 Jan-2 Feb 2006 in Atlanta, GA), in the “6th Symposium on the Urban Environment” dealing with: 1) An overview of urban modeling at the Meteorological Service of Canada (Mailhot et al.); 2) Application of meso-scale atmospheric modeling to the comparison of urban processes above North-American and European cities (Lemonsu et al.); 3) Methodology of urban cover classification for atmospheric modeling (Lemonsu et al.); 4) Numerical simulations of the urban boundary layer observed during Joint Urban 2003 (Mailhot et al.); 5) Preliminary results of the 2005 Montreal Urban Snow Experiment (MUSE-2005) (Benjamin et al.).

•One presentation at the 17th Symposium on Boundary Layers and Turbulence (22-26 May 2006 in San Diego CA) dealing with Numerical simulations of the urban boundary layer observed during Joint Urban 2003 (Mailhot et al.).•Four abstracts related to the CRTI Project have been submitted for presentation at the coming 6th International Conference on Urban Climate (12-16 June 2006 in Goteborg, Sweden) dealing with: 1) An overview of urban modeling at the Meteorological Service of Canada (Mailhot et al.); 2) Description of the new Canadian urban modeling system (Lemonsu et al.); 3) Application of the new Canadian urban modeling system to a North American city (Lemonsu et al.); 4) Preliminary results of the 2005 Montreal Urban Snow Experiment (MUSE-2005) (Benjamin et al.). Two extended abstracts (for papers 1 and 4) have been written and submitted for distribution at the Conference.•An internal seminar has been given on 24 February 2006 by J. Mailhot in the RPN/CMC series describing the various components of the CRTI project (“Development of a modeling system at the urban scale”).• a presentation will be given by Richard Hogue at the CRTI annual meeting (12-15 June 2006).

Refereed Journal Papers (in preparation):•Lemonsu et al., the paper “Methodology of urban cover classification for atmospheric modeling” will be submitted this summer to the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climate.•Lemonsu et al., general article on MUSE-2005 including preliminary data analysis. Will be submitted in early fall. Journal to be determined.•Chagnon et al., article on the analysis of energy budgets during MUSE-1 (2005) campaign. Will be submitted in early fall. Journal to be determined. •Lemonsu et al., article on the modeling work on JU2003 (Oklahoma City dataset). Will be submitted in early 2007. Journal to be determined. •Lemonsu et al., article on the modeling work with TEB for MUSE field studies. To be submitted in early 2007. Journal to be determined. •Bélair et al. article on the coupling issues between meso-scale meteorological models and CFD micro scale flow models in the urban environment. Will be submitted in early 2007. Journal to be determined.

PROJECT STATUS AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS since November 2004 (last PRC) (cont’d)

• CRTI-01-0080TA Information Management and Decision Support System for R/N (ARGOS)

• CRTI-02-0041RD Real-Time Determination of Area of Influence of CBRN Releases

• CRTI-04-0127TD CHIRP – Canadian Health Integrated Response Platform

• CRTI-03-0018RD Experimental Characterization of Risk for Radiological Dispersion Devices

(RDDs)

• CRTI-05-0014RTD Experimental and Theoretical Development of a Resuspension Database to

Assist Decision Makers during an RDD Event.

And, since Monday June 5 following kick-off meeting in Vancouver:

CRTI-05-0058TD Unified Interoperability Solution set to Support CONOPS Framework

Development -Municipal-Provincial-Federal Collaboration to CBRN Response :

To provide dispersion scenarios to the project using the capacity developped in 0093…

Linkages with many CRTI projects has continued…

SCHEDULE / MILESTONE REVIEW: General milestones

Milestone Event Completion Date

1 Project Approval 2003 April

2 Project Charter Approved 2003 July

3 RFP Release 2003 August

4 Contract Award 2003 September

5 Hire EC-CMC RES 2003 November

6 Hire EC-CMC PDF 2003 November

7 Development and implementation of high-resolution microscale urban flow model

2004 October

8 Development and implementation of microscale urban flow model using distributed drag force approach for prediction of spatially-averaged time mean wind and turbulence

2005 June

9 Development, implementation, and coupling of microscale Lagrangian Stochastic model with urban microscale flow model for prediction of short-range dispersion

2005 June

10 Development and implementation of urban parameterizations for mesoscale model (GEM-GEM LAM)

2005 June

11 Coupling of urban microscale flow models with “urbanized” mesoscale flow model

2006 November (vs June 06)

12 Development and implementation of multiscale Lagrangian Stochastic model prediction of atmospheric (and, urban) dispersion at all ranges

2006 October (vs June 06)

13 Full integration of multiscale Lagrangian Stochastic model with coupled urban microscale and “urbanized” mesoscale model

2006 December (vs August 06)

14 QA/QC data from Montreal Urban Snow Experiments (MUSE), and make data available to US collaborators through password protected website

2007 March (new)

15 Development of adjoint of Eulerian and Lagrangian dispersion models required for rapid computation of likelihood function

2006 December (new)

16 Verification and Validation of fully integrated flow and dispersion modelling system

2007 March

17 Development of inverse source determination methodology based on Bayesian inference, and implementation of Monte Carlo sampling schemes required to extract information from posterior distribution of source parameters

2007 June (new)

18 Verification and validation of inverse source determination methodology using available concentration data sets (e.g., JU2003, ETEX, Project Prairie Grass, Sensor data fusion experiment at Dugway Proving Grounds, etc.).

2008 March (new)

19 Project Complete (Close Project) 2008 April (vs April 07)

SCHEDULE / MILESTONE REVIEW: Detailed milestones (tasks)

See detailed milestone (tasks) document

FINANCIAL REVIEW – PROJECT COSTS

See document extracted from project charter revision

Partner Project Charter Current

Budget (A)

Actual Cost to Date Total

Fiscal Year End Cost Forecast (B)

% Delta(A-B)/A

Environment Canada

$ 2,181,000 $ 1,716,000

(78.7%)

$ 465,000 0 %

DND DRDC $ 1,260,000 $ 890,000 $ 350,000 0.0016%(20K)

AECL $ 44,000 $ 33,000 $ 11,000 0%

Project Total $ 3,485,000 $ 2,639,000 $ 826,000

FINANCIAL REVIEW – PROJECT COSTS

Without considering the PSTP (240K) or roll-over funds (105K)

Partner Project Charter Current

Budget (A)

Actual Cost to Date Total

Fiscal Year End Cost Forecast (B)

% Delta(A-B)/A

Environment Canada

$ 2,181,000 $ 1,716,000

(78.7%)

$ 595,000

DND DRDC $ 1,260,000 $ 890,000 $ 430,000

AECL $ 44,000 $ 33,000 $ 11,000

Project Total $ 3,485,000 $ 2,639,000 $ 1,036,000

FINANCIAL REVIEW – PROJECT COSTS

Including the PSTP (240K) or roll-over funds (105K)

3.3 Project AssumptionsThe Project Plan assumes that:

Funding as approved under the project will remain available and disbursed on time: OK.Start date of research and development for components 1 and 4 is based on having a contract in place

with PWGSC by August 1, 2003…: OKNew and qualified personnel will be hired ….: OKKey existing personnel will be available throughout the project. We were able to react relatively quickly when Claude Pelletier left the project last fall. A new employee

was hired. Otherwise we have been able to maintain the right level of required staff to advance the project.

Key equipment (computing infrastructure) and key datasets will be available:Generally speaking main computing infrastructures and datasets have been available. However, there has been some slow downs and risk associated with the significant delays of the IBM supercomputer upgrade and associated systems. This is a file which we are monitoring closely. To minimize this risk we have purchased a set of high performance front end nodes (40 node InfinitiBand cluster) which should be available for our use by August 2006. We expect to be able to run our tests on this machine.

3.4 Project ConstraintsA significant component of the Validation phase of the project (component 5) is constrained by the

availability of flow and dispersion data sets to be acquired during JUT 2003 in Oklahoma City: OK. We have access to OKC datasets and as well to MUSE1-2 datasets.

Unfortunately, no access is expected to the New-York City Tracer experiment for some years.

PROJECT ASSUMPTIONS AND CONSTRAINTS

RISK REVIEW

For all Federal Departments involved in the project· Risk: A national or international crisis or other immediate events triggering emergency response will delay the conduct of the project Mitigation: CRTI secretariat to be advised immediately. Components of the project to be delivered by private companies will not be affected. Project plan for deliverables will be modified accordingly, financial impacts will be assessed and the Charter will be adjusted.

Defence R&D Canada -- Suffield

· Risk: Transfer of mathematical urban flow models to Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc. in a format understood by all is problematic Mitigation: Ongoing communication with project partners at Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc. (e-mail, teleconference, and meetings as needed) to allow for smooth transfer of DRDC Suffield mathematical models to Waterloo for numerical solution coding --- Modelling Group at DRDC Suffield will collaborate closely with the CFD Modelling Group at Waterloo to ensure fidelity in the model transfer and in the implementation of the proposed flow models· Risk: Delay in obtaining data from the Joint Urban Trial (JUT) 2003 Mitigation: Ensure that all appropriate security clearances are granted· Risk: IP issues and disputesMitigation: Pass information to IP office as soon as possible for resolution

Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc. (Dr F.S. Lien)

· Risk: Difficulty in the implementation of numerical algorithms to solve the model equations developed by DRDC SuffieldMitigation: Close collaboration with DRDC Suffield to ensure that a working solution is developed. This close collaboration should involve project leads from the Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc. (Dr Fue-Sang Lien) and DRDC Suffield (Dr Eugene Yee) and various members of the project leads’ staff. A productive working relationship will be maintained through regular teleconferencing, correspondence, and meetings as required.Mitigation: Ensure that model approaches developed by DRDC Suffield and numerical implementation of these approach by Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc. are fully documented.

· Risk: Incompatability of numerical microscale code developed with EC-CMC’s meso-gamma scale GEM-GEM LAM codeMitigation: Ongoing communication with EC-CMC GEM-GEM LAM code developers (meteorological modelers and software engineers)Mitigation: Access to GEM-GEM LAM Graphical User Interface (GUI) for all project team members from Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc.Mitigation: Access to GEM-GEM LAM documentation and source code

We have found a good process to work together where Waterloo and DRDC-Suffield coordinate with staff in CMC to exchange code and tests in their respective environments. Ultimately, the code and scripts need to be adjusted to be able to run in an operational set-up.

Environment Canada – Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC)

· Risk: Availability of qualified technical staff to undertake certain phases of the project.Mitigation: One Research Scientist (RES) and one Post-doctoral Fellow (PDF) with the required expertise are in the process of being hired to support work on this project full time.· Risk: Availability of staff for Project Management and Coordination Mitigation: New staff member to aid project manager (Mr Michel Jean) with project coordination has been hired.· Risk: Difficulty in the implementation and/or porting of code to the new IBM massively parallel supercomputing platform (which is currently being brought on-line at Canadian Meteorological Centre).Mitigation: New RES to be hired with strong parallel computing background.Mitigation: Resources have been set aside at CMC to manage this issue.· Risk: Difficulty in coupling the micro and meso-gamma scale model.Mitigation: Maintain close on-going collaboration with Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc. microscale model development and implementation team.Mitigation: Provide Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc. Implementation Team with full documentation for the GEM-GEM LAM model.Mitigation: Employment of a common GUI between EC-CMC and Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc. (CMC Modeling Toolbox will provide the common interface). · Risk: Lack of attention to needs of end users (first responders).Mitigation: Work with CMC to understand existing emergency response system and FNEP TAG requirements.

Our strong involvement with CRTI project 05-0058TD (inoperability framework in the Vancouver area) will be our main initial connection with the first responders.

· Risk: Tracer data from Oklahoma test site is delayed.Mitigation: Consultation with project team members from AECL and HC-RPB who have extensive experience in model validation .Mitigation: Additional data from AECL and/or HC-RPB could be used for model validation in place of the expected comprehensive urban flow and dispersion data sets to be acquired in JUT 2003.· Risk: Oklahoma City vector format GIS data not compatible with EC-CMC softwareMitigation: Consult with team members from DRDC Suffield and Waterloo CFD Engineering Consulting Inc.Mitigation: Ensure that the necessary graphics packages are available at EC-CMC.Mitigation: Ensure that qualified staff are available to manipulate the vector format GIS data.· Risk: Model predictions do not agree with experimental data within acceptable margins (defined in the literature)Mitigation: Allow time for model revisions based upon initial testing.Mitigation: Allow time for a documented discussion of project limitations.

J.D. Wilson & Associates (Dr J.D. Wilson)· Risk: Delay in the coupling of the micro and meso-gamma scale model to delay Lagrangian Stochastic (LS) model verification and validation.Mitigation: Offline model testing with in house data sets until coupled code complete --- LS model validation (primarily urban dispersion model validation can begin immediately by coupling model to the urban microscale flow model to investigate predictive accuracy of the model at short range [up to about 2 km]).

Atomic Energy Canada Limited (AECL)· Risk: Access to classified information is denied.Mitigation: Reliance on other team members already having obtained the necessary security clearance. · Risk: Access to sensitive measurements at AECL CRL is denied to project members. Mitigation: An agreement with the responsible body at AECL describing the use that project members will make with the data and a review of material to be published by AECL to eliminate sensitive information

Health Canada (Radiation Protection Bureau)

· Risk: Availability of data sets for verification and validation of the modelling system.Mitigation: Preparation of data sets in parallel as modelling system is being developed. Work is currently underway along those lines through the joint work between HC RPB and EC CMC for assessment of a noble gas analyzer in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.

RECOVERY PLAN - SCHEDULE AND FINANCIAL

Included in the schedule and financial plans in the project charter. Adjustments to the end time of some of the milestones and tasks.

• FY 05-06 funds were all used (except 20K)• FY 06-07 and FY 07-08: context of modifications :

1- PSTP funding approved of $310K:• 70K for 2005-06 :  this was not used and is therefore "lost“• 170K for 2006-07 :  this was added in the revised charter• 70K for 2007-08 :  this was added in the revised charter.

2- Use of roll-over funds from first two years of the project

• $53K from 2003-04

• $50K from 2004-05

These additional funds will be applied to i) further improve modeling system and model validation, ii) to perform inverse source determination (source reconstruction)iii) exchange and collaborate with NARAC at LLNL and others.

• Project well underway and advancing well. Scientific challenges are being addressed one by one through extensive testing and validation.

• Implementation of prototype is done within an operational environment : currently addressing some very practical near-real time feasability issues

• Meeting at NARAC June 1-2 opens the door to collaboration and exchange on the validation of OKC cases and on issues of common interest (surface processes, coupling between met model and CFD model, etc.). Excellent leverage on operational issues such as trans-boundary event coordination as well ascollaboration with HC/RPB on ARGOS dataset exchange.

• Project well linked to other CRTI projects (Argos, 0041, 0018, 0014, 0127,0058, etc.)

PROJECT SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

• Linking to the EE community through:

• CRTI project 05-0058TD (inoperability framework in the Vancouver area)

• meeting in early 2007 with representative 1st responder community…

• Project generates significant leverage on scientific issues within NWP development at MSC:

• high resolution meso-scale modeling

• surface processes at high resolution

• urban and land-use characterization

• Important to start working on CRTI-2 follow-up project (within or outside current 0093…?):

• application of prototype to all main Canadian cities

• obtain “shape files” of building topography

• interact with appropriate responders and plan for tests and exercises,

• improvement to the system

• plan for a tracer experiment in a Canadian city… to further validate the system

• etc.

PROJECT SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS (cont’d)