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Crop Production
Executive Summary
Lance Honig, ChiefCrops Branch
October 9, 2020
Special Note
October 9, 2020
Each October, NASS has the opportunity to revise planted and harvested acreage estimates for corn, sorghum, soybeans, sunflower, canola, sugarbeets, and dry edible beans. Revisions are based on all available data, including the latest certified acreage data from the Farm Service Agency (FSA). All States in the estimating program for these crops were subject to review and updating.
Data Sources
October 9, 2020
October 2020 Ag Yield Sample Sizes
Operator Reported
Survey
Field Objective Yield
Survey Corn, Cotton, Soybeans
Remotely Sensed Time Series 250 Meter Focus Area Imagery Through
(Satellite) MODIS Satellite Data Corn Belt September 28
FSA
Certified Acres
Ag Yield Sample Size = 10,160 September 29 - October 5
Sample Size = 3,930 September 24 - October 1
Farm Service Agency policy requires that producers participating in several
programs submit an annual report regarding all cropland use on their farms.
United States Corn ProgressPercent Harvested
October 9, 2020
Percent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29 12/6
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
October 2020 CornAcreage, Yield, and Production
October 9, 2020
United States% Change from
Previous Estimate
% Change from
Previous Season
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
Iowa 13,700 ↑ 1.5 12,700 ↓ 2.7 186 ↓ 6.1 2,362,200 ↓ 8.6
Illinois 11,400 ↑ 8.6 11,200 ↑ 9.8 200 ↑ 10.5 2,240,000 ↑ 21.3
Nebraska 10,200 ↑ 1.0 9,830 ↑ 0.2 187 ↑ 2.7 1,838,210 ↑ 3.0
Minnesota 8,000 ↑ 2.6 7,550 ↑ 4.1 202 ↑ 16.8 1,525,100 ↑ 21.6
Indiana 5,400 ↑ 8.0 5,250 ↑ 8.9 189 ↑ 11.8 992,250 ↑ 21.8
% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
Planted Harvested Yield Production
90,978 82,527 178.4 14,721,705
↓ ↓
↑ ↑
Top 5 States - By Production
1.4
Planted Harvested Yield Production(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
1.1
1.5 ↑ 6.5 ↑ 8.1
1.1 ↓ 0.1 ↓ 1.2
October 2020 Corn AcresUnited States
October 9, 2020
Million Acres
91.9
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.288.9
89.791.0
83.9
87.4 87.5
83.1
80.8
86.7
82.781.3 81.3
82.5
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Planted Harvested
108.6
131.5
100.7
138.6
113.5
127.1126.7
134.4133.8136.9138.2
129.3
142.2
160.3
147.9149.1150.7
153.3
164.4
152.6
146.8
123.1
158.1
171.0168.4
174.6176.6176.4
167.5
178.4
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
October 2020 Corn YieldUnited States
October 9, 2020
Bushels per Acre
October 2020 Corn YieldBushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
October 9, 2020
October 2020 CornNASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield
October 9, 2020
October 2020 Corn Objective YieldPercent of Samples Processed in the Lab
October 9, 2020
Percent
1617
41
13
49
1
25
0
70
96
73
96
51
96
80
96
29
94
68
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100O
cto
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Nov
embe
r
Oct
obe
r
Nov
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r
Oct
obe
r
Nov
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r
Oct
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r
Nov
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r
Oct
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r
Nov
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r
Oct
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Nov
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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mature Dent
October 2020 Corn Objective YieldEars per Acre and Yield for 10 State Region
October 9, 2020
Ears per Acre Bushels per Acre
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
27,000
27,500
28,000
28,500
29,000
29,500Se
ptem
ber
Oct
obe
r
No
vem
be
r
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
obe
r
No
vem
be
r
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
obe
r
No
vem
be
r
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
obe
r
No
vem
be
r
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
obe
r
No
vem
be
r
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
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r
No
vem
be
r
Fin
al
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ears per Acre Yield
12.3
10.8
13.8 14.213.6
15.114.6 14.3
13.6
14.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
October 2020 Corn ProductionUnited States
October 9, 2020
Billion Bushels
2020 U.S. Corn ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS
October 9, 2020
14.5
14.6
14.7
14.8
14.9
15.0
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.5
August September October November Final
Billion Bushels
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Soybean ProgressPercent Harvested
October 9, 2020
Percent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
October 2020 SoybeansAcreage, Yield, and Production
October 9, 2020
United States% Change from
Previous Estimate
% Change from
Previous Season
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
Illinois 10,300 ↑ 3.5 10,250 ↑ 4.0 60.0 ↑ 11.1 615,000 ↑ 15.5
Iowa 9,400 ↑ 2.2 9,320 ↑ 2.2 56.0 ↑ 1.8 521,920 ↑ 4.1
Minnesota 7,400 ↑ 8.0 7,330 ↑ 8.3 52.0 ↑ 18.2 381,160 ↑ 28.0
Indiana 5,700 ↑ 5.6 5,680 ↑ 6.0 60.0 ↑ 17.6 340,800 ↑ 24.7
Nebraska 5,200 ↑ 6.1 5,150 ↑ 6.4 60.0 ↑ 2.6 309,000 ↑ 9.1
Planted Harvested Yield Production(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
↑ 9.8
83,105 82,289 51.9 4,267,890
↓ 0.9 ↓ 0.9 NC ↓ 1.0
% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
↑ 9.5 ↑ 20.2
Top 5 States - By Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production
↑ 9.2
October 2020 Soybean AcresUnited States
October 9, 2020
Million Acres
75.0
77.2 76.8
83.3 82.783.5
90.289.2
76.1
83.1
73.8
76.1 76.2
82.681.7
82.7
89.5
87.6
74.9
82.3
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Planted Harvested
34.2
37.6
32.6
41.4
35.3
37.6
38.9 38.9
36.6
38.1
39.6
38.0
33.9
42.243.1 42.9
41.7
39.7
44.043.5
42.0
40.0
44.0
47.548.0
51.9
49.3
50.6
47.4
51.9
29
34
39
44
49
54
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
October 2020 Soybean YieldUnited States
October 9, 2020
Bushels per Acre
October 2020 Soybean YieldBushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
October 9, 2020
October 2020 SoybeansNASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield
October 9, 2020
October 2020 Soybean Objective YieldPercent of Samples Processed in the Lab
October 9, 2020
54
95
53
93
49
93
57
93
25
91
64
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100O
cto
ber
Nov
embe
r
Oct
obe
r
Nov
embe
r
Oct
obe
r
Nov
embe
r
Oct
obe
r
Nov
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r
Oct
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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mature
Percent
October 2020 Soybean Objective YieldPods per 18 Square Feet and Yield for 11 State Region
October 9, 2020
Pods per 18 Square Feet Bushels per Acre
35
40
45
50
55
60
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000Se
ptem
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Oct
obe
r
No
vem
be
r
Fin
al
Sept
emb
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Oct
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r
No
ve
mb
er
Fin
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Sept
emb
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Oct
obe
r
No
vem
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r
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
obe
r
No
ve
mb
er
Fin
al
Sept
emb
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Oct
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r
No
ve
mb
er
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
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r
No
vem
be
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Fin
al
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Pods per 18 Square Feet Yield
October 2020 Soybean ProductionUnited States
October 9, 2020
Billion Bushels
3.10 3.043.36
3.93 3.93
4.30 4.41 4.43
3.55
4.27
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020 U.S. Soybean ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS
October 9, 2020
4.10
4.15
4.20
4.25
4.30
4.35
4.40
4.45
4.50
August September October November Final
Billion Bushels
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Cotton ProgressPercent Harvested
October 9, 2020
Percent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29 12/6
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
October 2020 CottonAcreage, Yield, and Production
October 9, 2020
United States% Change from
Previous Estimate
% Change from
Previous Season
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)
Texas 6,836 ↓ 3.2 3,880 ↓ 26.2 762 ↑ 31.8 6,160 ↓ 2.8
Georgia 1,200 ↓ 14.3 1,190 ↓ 13.8 968 ↑ 1.6 2,400 ↓ 12.4
Mississippi 530 ↓ 25.4 525 ↓ 25.0 1,198 ↑ 7.7 1,310 ↓ 19.2
Arkansas 525 ↓ 15.3 520 ↓ 14.8 1,200 ↑ 1.3 1,300 ↓ 13.7
Alabama 450 ↓ 16.7 445 ↓ 16.4 960 ↑ 3.4 890 ↓ 13.4
Planted Harvested Yield Production(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)
12,116 9,005 909 17,045
↓ 0.1
↓ 11.8 ↓ 22.5 ↑ 10.4 ↓ 14.4
NC NC ↓ 0.1
Top 5 States - By Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
652
700
606
708
537
705
673
625607
632
705
665
730
855
831814
879
813
776
812
790
892
822838
766
867
905
882
823
909
480
530
580
630
680
730
780
830
880
930
980
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
October 2020 Cotton YieldUnited States
October 9, 2020
Pounds per Acre
October 2020 Cotton YieldPounds and Percent Change from Previous Month
October 9, 2020
October 2020 Cotton ProductionUnited States
October 9, 2020
Million Bales
15.6
17.3
12.9
16.3
12.9
17.2
20.9
18.419.9
17.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
October 9, 2020
October 2020 Field CropsAcreage, Yield, and Production
Unit Unit
Canola Lb Lb
% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.9 ↓ 0.9 N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 9.2 ↓ 5.1 ↓ 1.2 ↓ 6.3
Dry Edible Beans Lb Cwt
% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 7.1 ↑ 7.1 ↓ 0.4 ↑ 6.6
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 35.4 ↑ 43.1 ↑ 17.5 ↑ 68.1
Alfalfa Hay Ton Ton
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A NC ↑ 1.9 ↑ 1.9
% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 2.3 ↓ 1.8 ↓ 4.1
Other Hay Ton Ton
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A NC ↑ 2.0 ↑ 2.0
% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 1.0 ↑ 0.5 ↑ 1.4
Peanuts Lb Lb
% Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 1.4 ↓ 1.4
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 16.2 ↑ 16.8 ↑ 4.9 ↑ 22.5
Rice Lb Cwt
% Change from Previous Estimate NC ↑ 0.1 ↑ 0.5 ↑ 0.6
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 19.6 ↑ 21.0 ↑ 1.3 ↑ 22.6
75,053
Production(1,000 Units)
3,186,670
34,984
52,625
1,7591,8121,852
Yield(Units per Acre)
6,695,620
226,336
1,743 1,683
N/A 16,352
N/A 36,029
Harvested(1,000 Acres)
Planted(1,000 Acres)
2,079
3.22
2.08
4,125
7,567
1,665 1,623
3,037 2,991
October 9, 2020
October 2020 Field CropsAcreage, Yield, and Production
Unit Unit
Sorghum Bu Bu
% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 3.0 ↑ 3.2 ↑ 0.3 ↑ 3.5
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 10.0 ↑ 7.0 ↑ 1.5 ↑ 8.5
Sugarbeets Ton Ton
% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 1.5 ↑ 1.9 NC ↑ 1.9
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.9 ↑ 17.3 ↑ 6.8 ↑ 25.2
Sugarcane Ton Ton
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A NC NC ↓ 0.2
% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 2.1 ↑ 4.6 ↑ 6.7
Sunflower Lb Lb
% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 10.0 ↑ 10.1 N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 25.8 ↑ 29.4 ↑ 10.9 ↑ 43.5
Tobacco Lb Lb
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↓ 0.2 ↑ 5.5 ↑ 5.3
% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 13.9 ↓ 3.7 ↓ 17.2
1,165 1,149 31.2 35,815
N/A 932 36.6 34,083
Planted Harvested Yield Production
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units)
5,790 5,000 74.1 370,585
1,699 1,623 1,730 2,807,115
N/A 195 1,983 387,585
October 9, 2020
October 2020 Fruit and NutsProduction
Unit
Pecans Lb
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 14.2
Production(1,000 Units)
292,000
270
302
266 264254
269
305
241256
292
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Million Pounds
Pecan ProductionUnited States
October 9, 2020
October 2020 CitrusUtilized Production
All Oranges
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 10.9
Non-Valencia Oranges
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 12.2
Valencia Oranges
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 8.9
Grapefruit
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 0.7
Lemons
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 15.3
Tangerines
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 4.7
972
4,649
2,770
1,879
539
932
Production
(1,000 Tons)
11.6311.07
9.379.03 8.73
7.70
6.08
8.147.78
7.09
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Million Tons
All Citrus ProductionUnited States
8.98
8.27
6.776.35
6.09
5.09
3.88
5.43 5.22
4.65
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Million Tons
All Orange ProductionUnited States
Selected Upcoming Reports
October 9, 2020
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php
Cotton Ginnings
Organics
Cattle on Feed
Rice Stocks
October 30 Agricultural Prices
Cotton System
Fats and Oils
Flour Milling
Grain Crushings
Cotton Ginnings
Crop Production
October 22
October 23
November 2
November 10
USDA NASS Data Users’ Meeting
October 9, 2020
Wednesday, October 28, 202012:30 p.m. – 3:30 p.m. EDT
For more information and to register please go towww.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Meeting/index.php
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October 9, 2020
