Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Climate Change Impact in Agriculture: Vulnerability and Adaptation Concerns of Semiarid Tropics in Asia

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Chapter 3.6

Climate Change Impact in Agriculture:Vulnerability and Adaptation Concerns ofSemiarid Tropics in AsiaNaveen P. Singh, Ma Cynthia S. Bantilan, A. Ashok Kumar, Pasupuleti Janila,and Abu Wali R. Hassan

Introduction

There is global consensus that current climate ischanging, mainly due to the anthropogenic emis-sions of green house gases (GHG) (IPCC 2007b).Also, there is widespread concern over long-termclimate changes and changes in climate variabil-ity through occurrence of extreme weather eventssuch as cyclones, floods, droughts, sea level rise,etc. Agriculture is one sector of the economy thatis exposed directly and considerably affected byclimate and its changes. Because of the spatiallydifferent impacts of climate change, there is aneed to understand its context in each regionwith respect to exposure, expected impacts, vul-nerability status, and the response strategies tomitigate, cope, and adapt better with the processof climate change.

This chapter presents an overview of the se-lected seven countries in semiarid tropics (SAT)of Asia, viz. India, Pakistan, China, Sri Lanka,Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam. This is aneffort to build conceptual clarity on the climatechange issues in the semiarid regions of thesecountries. In preparing this chapter, a review of

the relevant literature was carried out with theobjective of building a clear-cut knowledge onvarious climate change issues vis-a-vis, impactsvulnerability, and adaptation.

Background and rationale

The background of the above research issuealong with the hypotheses and assumptions areas follows:

� Climate variability and change can affect thequality, quantity, and reliability of many ofthe services natural resources provide throughextreme and prolonged exposure to climateshocks. Consequently, there is an impact on thepattern of cropping, income and employment,and other socioeconomic and natural resourcevariables.

� The small aggregate change in temperatureor rainfall will receive little attention fromthe farmers for whom the major focus is onhow climate change will affect the frequencyand intensity of extreme weather events suchas flood, drought, and dry spell. However,

Crop Adaptation to Climate Change, First Edition. Edited by Shyam S. Yadav, Robert J. Redden, Jerry L. Hatfield,Hermann Lotze-Campen and Anthony E. Hall.c© 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Published 2011 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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108 CROP ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

particular regions will be affected by evensmall increase in the climate variables throughlong-term climate changes. Thus, both long-term changes and short-term variability areimportant.

� The impacts of climate change on croppingpattern in dryland regions have emerged as acritical concern in recent years as the drylandsare suffering already from constrained use ofnatural resources, particularly water. The crop-ping pattern changes in these areas have muchto do with the natural resource use, income,and living standards of the people. Climatechange and variability are assumed to have asignificant role in the cropping pattern changesin these regions.

� Changes in the farm household income in anarea may be influenced by the climate changepattern over years through affecting the irri-gation status, and productivity and productionstatus of different crops.

� Changes in the employment status of farmhouseholds in an area may be influenced by theclimate change pattern through determiningthe migration pattern, farm income changes,and livelihood options present with the farmhouseholds.

� Vulnerability to climate change and its im-pacts may be different for women when com-pared with that of men due to different so-cioeconomic, cultural, and physical factorsespecially in the dryland regions with lots ofresource, economic, environmental, and socialconstraints. Thus, it is important to analyzeclimate change vulnerability and impacts in agender perspective.

� These changes vary from region to region de-pending on their development status and thusresult in differential impacts on regions at dif-ferent development levels. Therefore, the fac-tors contributing to the development of a re-gion can have much to do with vulnerabilityto climate change and climate change responseoptions in that region.

� SAT of Asia are characterized by the pres-ence of inadequate and variable rainfall along

with the occurrence of frequent drought anddry spells. The population growth in thesemarginal lands led to the overexploitation ofland and environment degradation. Externalinputs in agricultural systems are also typi-cally low due to environmental constraints andpoor commercial and economic infrastructure,which leads to poor socioeconomic status ofthese regions and a subsequent exacerbatedvulnerability.

� Socioeconomic development status along withthe exposure to climate change vis-a-vis inci-dence of climate change and extreme weatherevents decide the level of vulnerability andthe ability to adapt to climate change in thatregion.

� The impacts are integrated with adaptation re-sponses of farmers at their farm or householdlevel. Farmers are already adapting in theirown way to climate change. The exposure toexternal shocks of climate change and vari-ability pushes the poor households in the SATregion to adopt adaptation responses throughwhich they can cope better and reduce thevulnerable status of their livelihoods to thesechanges. These responses ultimately affect orchange the livelihood options and strategiesavailable to the farm households.

� The past adaptation strategies, namely indige-nous technologies and historically developedagrarian practices and also current adaptivecapacities and strategies of farmers are oftenneglected or overlooked in research.

� Recognizing and enhancing these practicesand strategies are more important. Thesestrategies can be supported further based ontheir usefulness with respect to climate changeresilience in agriculture.

Climate change: global context

Climate change is one of the manifestations ofthe environmental change. It has gained globalattention since 1990s when the first assessmentreport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-mate Change (IPCC), established by the World



CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT IN AGRICULTURE 109

Meteorological Organization and United NationsEnvironment Program, was published in 1990and when United Nations Conference on Envi-ronment and Development developed United Na-tions Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) in 1992. The IPCC has publishedfour comprehensive assessment reports on cli-mate change issues. The fourth assessment re-port of the IPCC, which was published in early2007, concluded that earth’s climate is changingin a manner unprecedented in the past 400,000years and global average surface temperaturehas increased with 0.74 ± 0.18◦C in the lastcentury and is projected to increase by another1.1–6.0◦C in this century. The human interfer-ence into the earth atmosphere is significant andthe past anthropogenic (human-induced) emis-sions of GHG have already committed the globeto further warming of about 0.1◦C per decadefor several decades (IPCC 2007a). A global as-sessment of data since 1970 has shown that it

is likely that anthropogenic warming has had adiscernible influence on many physical and bio-logical systems (IPCC 2007b).

Concern about the issue of climate change re-sulted in highlighting two fundamental responsestrategies, namely, mitigation and adaptation bythe UNFCCC. The adoption of mitigation re-sponses seeks to limit the emissions of GHG andenhance sink opportunities so that climate doesnot change so fast or so much. On the other hand,adaptation responses aim to alleviate the adverseimpacts through a wide range of system-specificactions (Fussel and Klein 2002).

Figure 3.6.1 shows the link between adapta-tion and mitigation responses to climate changeissue and clearly illustrates that the mitiga-tion responses limit climate change by re-ducing GHG emissions and indirectly reducesclimate change impacts and vulnerabilities.Adaptation responses, on the other hand, can beeither autonomous (people exposed to impacts

Human interference

Mitigationof climate change via

GHG sources and sinks

Climate change(including variability)

Exposure

Initial impactsor effects

Autonomousadaptations V

ulne

rabi

litie

s

IMPA

CT

S

Residual or netimpacts

Policy responses

Planned adaptationto the impacts and

vulnerabilities

Fig. 3.6.1. Link between climate change adaptation and mitigation.




will spontaneously adapt to changes) or planned,directly to reduce the impacts of and vulnerabil-ities to climate change.

However, most interest in the past was givento issues related with mitigation by reducingGHG emissions, and less attention was given toadaptation, which was considered initially as acost of failed mitigation responses by UNFCCC.

Currently, the issue of adaptation has emergedas an urgent policy priority as a means of re-ducing the losses and prompting action bothwithin and outside the climate change negoti-ations, particularly after the Third AssessmentReport (TAR) of IPCC (Parry et al. 2005; TERI2005). The importance of adaptation to the cli-mate change and climate variability has becomemore apparent now as a result of occurrenceof climate-related issues such as continuous in-crease in GHG emissions, lack of progress in de-veloping GHG emission reduction agreements,and increase in negative impacts due to climatechange beyond the expected level (Howden et al.2007).

Climate change vulnerabilityin semiarid tropics of Asia

Characteristics of the semiarid tropics

Drylands cover approximately 40% of earth’sland area. About 33% of total drylands are inAsia (CGIAR 2008; Mwangi and Dohrn 2008;Fig. 3.6.2). There are three types of drylands, viz.arid, semiarid, and hyper-arid lands. SAT coverbetween 13% and 16% of the earth’s land area(Heathcote 1996).

The SAT in the world include parts of 55countries in the developing world vis-a-vis Southand Southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, south-ern and eastern Africa, and Latin America.

The climate of semiarid regions is generallycharacterized by inadequate and variable rain-fall. SAT have an average rainfall ranging be-tween 300 and 800 mm, and the rainfall variabil-ity is significant in terms of both seasonal andannual distribution. The dryland regions withunimodal rainfall pattern generally receive an-nual rainfall during three months (Kao 2009).

EQUATOR

Dryland systems

Hyperarid

Arid

Semiarid

Dry subhumid

Surface Area Dry subhumid Semiarid

In percent of the global terrestrial area

0 10 20 30 40 44%

Arid Hyperarid

Population

In percent of the global population

0 10 20 30 40 44%Drylands are home to 34.7% of the global population in 2000

Dryland comprise 41.3%of the global terrestrial area

Fig. 3.6.2. Dryland regions of the world. (Source: Millennium ecosystem assessment in Kao (2009).)




Watson et al. (1996) reported that people wholive on arid or SAT are particularly vulnerable toclimate change (Olmos 2001).

Globally, SAT are home to 1.4 billion people(Thurston 1997). Of these, 560 million peopleare classed as “poor” as they have a daily incomeof less than US$1, of whom 70% live in rural ar-eas. Semiarid tropical areas in Asia are largelyconcentrated in India, with some small areas dis-tributed in Pakistan, Myanmar, Thailand, Yemen,and Indonesia. The SAT in South Asia are largelyaffected with poverty, food insecurity, child mal-nutrition, and gender inequalities. For example,over 80% of the total SAT poor (and one-thirdof the total poor in the developing world) live insub-Saharan Africa and South Asia (Ryan andSpencer 2001).

In the SAT Asia, transformation of subsis-tence agriculture has not occurred and this led tolow productivity growth rate. Over the last threedecades, the area planted with sorghum and mil-let, which are the two important SAT crops, hasfallen by nearly one-third. New crops like maize,soybean, and cotton have become popular in theSAT areas because of their rising market demand.Irrigated area under SAT has increased and SATagriculture has become more diversified. How-ever, land degradation and ground water deple-tion have eroded the asset base of farmers con-siderably (ICRISAT 2006).

Because of poor human, natural resource andinfrastructural development in the SAT, largeproportions of the population are vulnerableto hunger, famine, dislocation, and the loss ofboth property and livelihood in the face of cli-matic, social, political, or economic shocks. Bothmarginality and low level economic developmentexacerbate and are exacerbated by environmentalchanges such as dryland degradation and defor-estation (Ribot et al. 2009).

Vulnerability contexts of climatechange in Asia

To understand the climate change vulnerability,we need to understand the socioeconomic and

environmental and natural resources contexts,which decide different dimensions of vulnera-bility, such as poverty, gender issues, incomeinequality, environmental degradation, resourceaccess, etc.

Development context

One of the key findings of the Fourth Assess-ment Report of IPCC Working Group II is ad-dressing nonclimate stresses, which can increasevulnerability to climate change. Another findingis that sustainable development can reduce vul-nerability to climate change by enhancing adap-tive capacity and increasing resilience. Develop-ing countries have lesser capacity to adapt andmore vulnerable to climate change damages, justas they are to other stresses. This condition ismost extreme among the poorest people (IPCC2001b). Thus, understanding the underlying de-velopment context, which ultimately decides thevulnerability, is important in climate change re-search.

Table 3.6.1 shows the socioeconomic and nat-ural resources indicators of the selected coun-tries. Low per capita GDP, lower Human Devel-opment Index (HDI) rank, low share of forestland, higher poverty incidence, and higher shareof agriculture in GDP of these countries indicatetheir low development status.

The core dimension of vulnerability comesfrom poverty. Poverty eradication is the primaryobjective of any development program in devel-oping countries. About 907 million people, whoare undernourished, live in developing countries.Of these, 65% live in only seven countries: In-dia, China, the Democratic Republic of Congo,Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Ethiopia(FAO 2008).

Figure 3.6.3 shows undernourishment statusof different regions in the world. Asia and Pa-cific region is highly suffering from undernour-ishment. With a very large population and rela-tively slow progress in hunger reduction, nearlytwo-thirds of the world’s hungry live in Asia(583 million in 2007). China and India together




Table 3.6.1. Socioeconomic and natural resources indicators of the selected countries.

Indicators China India Pakistan Bangladesh Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam

Total land (‘000 sq. km), 2007 9598 3287 796 144 65.6 513.1 331.2Agricultural land (% of total land), 2007 57.6 54.73 34.29 62.85 35.97 38.49 30.41Forest land (% of total land), 2007 21.4 20.61 2.28 6.01 28.55 28.07 40.49Annual population growth (%), 2005-10 0.6 1.5 1.8 1.7 0.5 0.7 1.3Per capita GDP (US$), 2007 2604 976 996 428 1676 3841 815Annual GDP growth (%), 2007 13 9.1 6 6.4 6.8 4.8 8.5Share of Agriculture in GDP (%), 2007 11 18 21 6.8 12 11 20People living <$1.25/day (%), 2005 15.9 41.6 22.6 50.5 10.33 0.4 22.8Human Development Index rank, 2008 94 132 139 147 104 81 114

Source: UNDP 2008; WDI 2009.

account for 42% of the chronically hungry peo-ple in the developing world (FAO 2008).

South Asia alone accounted for almost all(236 of the 237 million) of the rural poor inSAT Asia and about 63% of the rural poor in theSAT worldwide. This also indicates that about50% of poor in South Asia is concentrated in theSAT. India’s SAT areas have the highest povertyincidence of 24% when compared to other agro-climatic regions (ICRISAT 2006).

Water resources

Climate change will, in many parts of the world,adversely affect socioeconomic sectors, includ-ing water resources, agriculture, forestry, fish-eries, and human settlements and ecological sys-tems, with developing countries being the mostvulnerable (IPCC 2000). In Asia, agriculture isthe biggest consumer of water and demandingmore water in future.

189

212

453316

123

231

Number of undernourished people in the world, 2003-2004 (millions)

Asia and Pacific (excluding India and China) Sub-Saharan AfricaLa�n America and the CarribeanNeareast and North AfricaDeveloped countriesChinaIndia

Fig. 3.6.3. World’s undernourishment status of different regions. (Source: FAO 2008.)




0.0

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Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

Arab States East Asia and Pacific

Latin America and

the Carribean Popu

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ater

str

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Water stress: less than 1700 cubic meter per person per year Water stress: less than 1000 cubic meter per person per year

Fig. 3.6.4. Population facing water stress or scarcity projected for 2025 and 2050. (Source: UNDP 2007/2008.)

Figure 3.6.4 shows that South Asia is going tobe severely affected by water stress and scarcityin the future. About 2 billion people by 2025 and2.5 billion people by 2050 will be facing wateravailability problem, either through water stressor through water scarcity.

The Himalayan range contains high altitudeglaciers that supply water to many rivers in SouthAsia. Many people in South Asia are dependenton glacial melt water during dry season. The ac-celerated melting of glaciers in the Himalayanrange is a major climate-related issue in SouthAsia (HDR 2007/2008). The mountain glaciersin China have retreated, and the trend is acceler-ating and the rate of sea level rise along China’scoasts during the past 50 years was 2.5 mm/a,slightly higher than the global average (NDRC2007).

In the case of Southeast Asia, during the lastdecade, many parts of the region have been ex-periencing increasing water stress, including wa-ter shortages and deterioration of water qualitydue to rapid population and economic growthand climate change. Misuse and overexploita-tion of water resources has depleted aquifers,lowered water tables, shrunk inland lakes, anddiminished stream flows, some to ecologicallyunsafe levels. Deforestation in some of its im-portant watersheds has also contributed to thereduction of water levels in rivers, especially dur-

ing dry seasons, while demand for irrigation isanother important contributing factor to watershortages.

Thailand has the highest ratio of annual fresh-water withdrawal to total internal water resources(41.5%), followed by Vietnam (19.5%) in South-east Asian region. This indicates the higher vul-nerability of Thailand and Vietnam to changesin water resources. About 95% of the total freshwater withdrawal is used for agriculture produc-tion in Thailand, whereas it is only 68% in thecase of Vietnam, where a considerable share ofthe available freshwater supply is used for do-mestic (settlements or residential) and industrialpurposes (ADB Report 2009).

The vulnerable nature of water resources toclimate change in these countries has manyfuture implications, such as water availabilityto different uses, cost of irrigation, productionand productivity, farm income, etc., as climatechange can affect the supply of irrigation waterin agriculture.

Economic globalization context

Both climate change and economic globaliza-tion will have varying consequences for differentsectors of the economy. The agricultural sectorrepresents the convergence of impacts related toclimate change and economic globalization.




Economic globalization is indicated by for-eign direct investment and growth in interna-tional trade. Similar to climate change, globaliza-tion is also characterized by uneven impacts ondifferent regions, countries, and social groups.The concept of double exposure comes fromthe view that exposure to the negative impactsof both economic marginalizations out of theprocess of globalization and high environmen-tal risks results in negative impacts of both theprocesses. South Asia and sub-Saharan Africawere left out of the process of globalization andcreated regional disparities and inequalities thatcould be one factor determining the vulnerabilityto climate change among these regions (O’Brienand Leichenko 2000).

In China, investment flows have been focusedon coastal ecosystems and western region of thecountry lagged behind in terms of development.But coastal regions are also vulnerable to climatechange. A region can be a double loser when itis vulnerable to climate change and economi-cally marginalized, such as sub-Saharan Africaand South Asia. In some cases, impacts of eco-nomic globalization can offset the consequencesof climate change. It can be viewed from differ-ent perspective, such as regional, sectoral, socialgroups, or ecosystem (O’Brien and Leichenko2000).

Thus, understanding the process of climatechange and economic processes such as global-ization is complex and they are interlinked. Thestudies will have different outcomes dependingon the perspective used.

Climate change impacts in Asia

The IPCC TAR particularly identified the Asianregion as most vulnerable to climate-change-

related impacts due to its poor adaptive humansystems (Lal et al. 2001 in Prabhakar and Shaw2008).

Climate change trends and projectionsin Asia

For the tropical Asian region, several countriesin tropical Asia have reported an increased trendin surface temperature and a decreased trend inrainfall over the past three decades (Sivakumaret al. 2005).

For SAT, most of the climate change scenar-ios project worsening of climatic conditions, inthe form of more frequent droughts and shortergrowing seasons (Ribot et al. 2009).

Table 3.6.2 shows the climate projections forCentral and South Asia.

A general warming is expected with a 100%increase in the frequency of extremely warmyears. Future changes in drylands precipitationare less well defined. In the context of uncer-tainty of model outputs, rainfall increase is pro-jected in South Asia with a decreasing trend inCentral Asia.

Specifically, tropical cyclones in South Asiaare not been observed as a long-term variationin the total number but rather an increase in in-tensity is suggested. Over most regions, diurnaltemperature range (DTR) will reduce due to theincrease in night temperatures (Sivakumar et al.2005; Kao 2009).

Table 3.6.3 shows the climate change trendsand projections of the selected countries forthe study. It gives the idea that there is ageneral warming trend in the case of all thecountries with a projected increase in warmingin future.

Table 3.6.2. Climate projections for different dryland regions.

Region Temperature (◦C) Precipitation (%) Frequency of extreme warm year (%)

Central Asia +3.7 −3 100South Asia +3.3 +11 100

Source: IPCC 2007; Sivakumar et al. 2005; Kao 2009.




Table 3.6.3. Climate change: Trends and projections.

Trends Future projections

Atmospherictemperature Precipitation

Atmospherictemperature Precipitation

China Increased by0.5∼0.8◦C during thepast 100 years(NDRC 2007)

Decreased average@ 2.9 mm/10 years(NDRC 2007)

Air temperaturewould rise by1.3∼2.1◦C in 2020and 2.3∼3.3◦C in2050 over 2000temperature

Precipitation increase2∼3% by 2020 and5∼7% by 2050(NDRC 2007)

India Warming trend of0.57◦C/100 years(Sivakumar et al.2005)

Spatial variation inrainfall pattern

Increase in winter andminimum temperatureby 4◦C (Mall et al.2006)

Predicted 7–10%increase in annualmean precipitationand decline of 5.25%in winter rainfall and10–15% increase inmonsoon rainfall(Mall et al. 2006)

Pakistan Increased by 0.35◦Can average rate of0.08◦C per decade

Mean annual rainfallhas not changed withany discernible trendsince 1960(McSweeney et al.2009)

An overall increase intemperature 3–5◦Cover the next century

Increased variabilityof monsoon withsouthern regions willbenefit (∼20%) andnorthern regions willsuffers low rainfall(−5%)

Bangladesh Increasing trend of1◦C in May and0.5◦C in Novemberduring 1985–1998

Rainfall exhibited anincreasing trend since1960

Rise of 1, 1.4, and2.4◦C in annualtemperature by 2030,2050, and 2100,respectively

Precipitation willincrease during thesummer monsoon(Agrawala 2003)

Sri Lanka Increasing trend ofabout 0.30◦C per 100years (Sivakumaret al. 2005)

Increases in diurnalvariation (Sivakumaret al. 2005)

Rise of 1.4–2.7◦C inaverage temperature(http://sgp.undp.org/downloads/2002-3.pdf)

Spatial variation inrainfall is predicted

Thailand An increase from0.10–0.18◦C perdecade over 5 decades.(ADB Report 2009)

A long-termdecreasing trend inrainfall (Sivakumaret al. 2005)

Temperature increasewould be 2–4◦C bythe end of this century(TEI 2000)

Spatial variation inrainfall

Vietnam Annual averagetemperature increased0.1◦C per decadefrom 1900 to 2000,and 0.7◦C, or 0.14◦Cper decade, during1951–2000 (ADBReport 2009)

Average monthlyrainfall decreasedduring July andAugust, and increasedduring September andNovember (ADBReport 2009)

An increase intemperature would beof 2–4◦C by 2100

Annual rainfall wouldincrease by 5–10%toward the end of thiscentury and alsoaffecting monsoonpattern (ADB Report2009)




Natural disasters and extreme eventsin Asia

The TAR of the IPCC, 2001, pointed out thatclimate change and its variability will exac-erbate existing vulnerabilities to droughts andfloods in Asia. Tropical cyclones can becomemore intense. Combined with sea-level rise, thiswill result in enhanced risk of loss of life andproperties in coastal low-lying areas of cyclone-prone countries. Increased precipitation inten-sity, particularly during the summer monsoon,will contribute to increase in flood events (HDR2007/2008).

Millions of people living in the low-lying ar-eas of the People’s Republic of China (PRC),Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam will be affectedby rising sea levels by the end of this century(Wassmann et al. 2004 and Stern 2007 in ADBReport 2009).

At the same time, drier summer conditionsin arid and semiarid areas will lead to more se-vere droughts. India and Pakistan mainly dependon arid and semiarid lands for their cultivation,and these areas already experience frequent nat-ural disasters (HDR 2007/2008). The amount ofannual rainfall varies dramatically in drylands.Given the relatively scant seasonal and interan-nual precipitation, a certain level of rainfall de-ficiency can easily give rise to the occurrenceof drought. In addition, a large DTR is also fre-

quently observed in drylands. Significant fluctu-ations in diurnal temperatures have a profoundimpact on the growth of plants in these regions(Kao 2009). Sivakumar et al. (2005) reported anincrease in frequency and severity of wild firesin grassland and rangelands in arid and semi-arid Asia in recent decades. Figure 3.6.5 showsthe damages due to extreme climate events inAsia and Table 3.6.4 depicts the expected trendsand projection of climate variability and extremeevents.

Impacts of climate change onagricultural production in Asia

Agriculture in the SAT is under inherent cli-matic and nonclimatic stresses and has evolvedunder the influence of different constraints aris-ing out of these stresses. Limited fresh wateravailability, seasonal variation in rainfall, unre-liability of rainfall, and degradation of soil re-sources are few among the numerous constraints.In rainfed systems of the SAT, the constant riskof drought increases the vulnerability of liveli-hoods and decreases human security. Therefore,drought management is a key strategy for agri-cultural development in these regions (ICRISAT2006).

Focusing the issue of climate change concernsof agriculture in the SAT regions is always com-plex due to the presence of numerous nonclimatic

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Wind StormWild firesWave/surgeSlidesFloodExtreme temperatureDrought

Fig. 3.6.5. Damages due to extreme climate events in Asia. (Source: OFDA-CRED (2005) in HDR (2007/2008).)




Table 3.6.4. Climate variability and extreme events: trends and projections.

China Drought in northern andnortheast China and flood inthe middle and lower reachesof the Yangtze River andsoutheast China have becomemore severe. The annualprecipitation in most yearssince 1990 has been largerthan normal and frequentdisasters in the north andflood in the south (NDRC2007)

Possibility of more frequentoccurrence of extremeweather climate events wouldincrease (NDRC 2007). Ineast China, frequency ofexceptional floods wouldincrease (Erda et al. 2007)

Arid area would probablybecome larger and the risk ofdesertification mightincrease. The glaciers in theQinghai-Tibetan Plateau andthe Tianshan Mountainswould retreat at anaccelerated rate, and somesmaller glaciers woulddisappear (NDRC 2007)

India Increase in extreme rainfallevents over northwest Indiaduring the summer monsoon.Decline in the number ofrainy days in monsoon alongeast coastal areas. Higherfrequent drought followingthe occurrence of ENSO and50% of Indian monsoonfailures occurrences since1871 during El Nino years.(Sivakumar et al. 2005).About 22 major droughtyears during 1871–2002(Prabhakar and Shaw 2008)

No conclusive increasing ordecreasing trends in timeseries data of flooded areas invarious river basins. Noidentifiable variability innumber, frequency, orintensity of tropical cyclonesin northern Indian Oceanregion over 100 years(Sivakumar et al. 2005).Frequency of severerainstorms increased over thelast 50 years. Number ofstorms with more than100 mm rainfall in a day isincreased by 10% per decade(UNEP 2007 in HDR2007/2008)

Number of rainy days inmonsoon will be decreasedby >15 days and rainfallintensity will rise by 1–4mm/day. Cyclonic stormswill likely to increase in theirfrequency and intensityincrease in heavy rainfalldays in summer monsoon(Mall et al. 2006)

Pakistan Average number of “hot”days and nightsa per yearincreased by 20 and 23,respectively, and averagenumber of “cold” days andnights per year decreased by9.7 and 13, respectively,between 1960 and 2003.(McSweeney et al. 2009).Severe Cyclones in 2007ravaged southern Pakistan(Kundi 2009)

Annually, “hot” days willoccur on 16–25% and18–38% of day by the 2060sand 2090s, respectively. Hotnights by the 2060s and2090s, respectively. Allprojections indicate decreasesin the frequency of days andnights that are considered“cold” in current climate(McSweeney et al. 2009)

The proportion of totalrainfall that falls in heavyevents shows mixed positiveand negative changes inprojections from differentmodels, however, tendtoward increases over theannual average (McSweeneyet al. 2009)

Bangladesh No conclusive increasing ordecreasing trends in timeseries data of flooded areas invarious river basins(Sivakumar et al. 2005) ofthree islands. Extremeflooded years were 1988,1998, 2002, 2003, and 2004(Bangladesh 2007)

One-fifth of the country isflooded every year, and inextreme years, two-thirds ofthe country can be inundated(Mirza, 2002 in Agrawalaet al. 2003). Cyclones fromthe Bay of Bengal decreasingsince 1970 but the intensityhas increased (Bangladesh2007)

2◦C warming with 10%increase in precipitationwould increase runoff in themajor rivers significantlyMirza and Dixit (1997). Sealevel rise of 0.5 m over thelast 100 years has alreadyeroded 65% of three islands(Bangladesh 2007)

(Continued)




Table 3.6.4. (Continued)

Sri Lanka A trend of increased lengthsof dry periods along with anincreasing trend of rainfallintensity, especially after thelate seventies (Ratnayake andHerath 2005)

Rising sea levels would causeintrusion of salt water up therivers and cause salinityproblems(http://sgp.undp.org/downloads/2002-3.pdf)

Predict increase in frequentand prolonged droughts,thunderstorms, and sea waterlevel

Thailand Between 1990 and 1993,rainfall was below normal.1994–1995 were flood years.In 2005, 11 m people in 71provinces were affected bywater shortages. In 2008,over 10 m people in theagricultural region wereaffected by drought. About55 of 76 provinces havesuffered, damaging 60,000acres, mainly rice (Kisner2008)

Frequency of extreme eventsincludes prolonged flood anddrought, landslides, andstrong storm surges. Moreintense storms but lessfrequent (Jesdapipat 2008 inADB Report 2009). Meansea levels trending higherrecently (ADB Report 2009)

An increase in coastalerosion is expected (ADBReport 2009)

Vietnam There were higher frequencydroughts following theoccurrence of ENSO(Sivakumar et al. 2005).Increased occurrence ofextreme rains causing flashfloods. Droughts normallyassociated with El Nino years(ADB Report 2009)

Rainfall intensity has alsoincreased considerably(Cuong 2008 in ADB Report2009). More frequentoccurrence of typhoons,drought and floods, and heatwaves (Cuong 2008 in ADBReport 2009). Averageincrease of mean sea level by2–3 mm per year

Southern Vietnam wouldbecome drier. Tran et al.(2005) predicts that a1-meter rise in sea level couldlead to flooding of 5000square kilometers of RedRiver Delta and15,000–20,000 squarekilometers of Mekong Delta(ADB report 2009)

aHot day or hot night is defined by the temperature exceeding 10% of days or nights in current climate of that region orseason. Cold days or cold nights are defined as the temperature below which 10% of days or nights are recorded in currentclimate of that region or season.

stresses, which lead to constraints and uncertain-ties such as socioeconomic, environmental, andpolitical constraints, which ultimately threatenslivelihoods and sustainability of food productionacross the SAT region.

There is a general agreement at internationalcommunity working on climate change projec-tions that climate change may lead to signif-icant reductions in agricultural productivity indeveloping countries. Agricultural production inSouth Asia could fall by 30% by 2050 if no ac-tion is taken to combat the effects of increasingtemperatures and hydrologic disruption (IPCC2007c). Since temperatures in the South Asiancontinent are already reaching critical levels dur-ing the premonsoon season, this further incre-

ment would reduce effectively the yields of allcrops, including rice (Wassmann and Dober-mann 2007).

Sivakumar et al. (2000) summarize that cli-mate variability has been, and continues to be,the principal source of fluctuations in global foodproduction, particularly in the SAT. Data showthat the dry tropics, where rainfed agricultureprovides 60% of the world’s food, will be themost vulnerable to climate change. ICRISATdata shows that increases in temperature willhave a significant (8–30%) reduction in grainyields of dryland crops. Consequently, farmers inthe SAT will have to adapt their farming practicesto cope with the future environmental, social,and economic constraints. Table 3.6.5 shows the




Table 3.6.5. Agriculture impacts due to climate change: trends and projections.

Trends

Countries Climatic variability Extreme events Projections

China About 2–4 day advancement ofspring phenophase since 1980s(NDRC 2007). Drought-stricken areas widened innorthern China and morefloods in southern China

By 2030, the crop productivitycould decrease by 5–10%. By2050, it could reduce rice,wheat, and maize by 37%.Irrigation demand would growin future (Erda et al. 2007)

Increased instability inagricultural production,mainly in wheat, rice, andmaize. Changes in distributionand structure of agriculturalproduction as well as incropping systems and varietiesof the crops (NDRS 2007)

India For 2.5◦C, yield loss for riceand wheat would be between32% and 40%. For 4.9◦C,yield losses would be between41% and 52%

Wheat yields in central Indiamay drop by 2% in apessimistic climate changescenario (Gol 2004 in HDR2007/2008)

About 2◦C rise in meantemperature and a 7% increasein mean precipitation willreduce net revenues by 8.4%(Kumar and Parikh 2001 inHDR 2007/2008)

Pakistan Wheat yields are predicted todecline by 6–9% in subhumid,semiarid, and arid area with1◦C increase in temperature(Sultana and Ali 2006 in HDR2007/2008)

Higher temperatures are likelyto result in decline in yields,mainly due to the shortening ofthe crop life cycle, especiallythe grain filling period (HDR2007/2008)

A 0.3◦C decadal rise couldhave a severe impact onimportant cash crops likecotton, mango, and sugarcane(MoE 2003 in HDR2007/2008)

Bangladesh During 1973–1987, 2.18 mtand 2.38 mt of rice weredamaged due to drought andflood, respectively. Droughtaffects annually about2.32 mha and 1.2 mha inkharif and Rabi seasons,respectively (Bangladesh 2007)

A 4◦C temperature increasecould reduce rise and wheatproduction by 30% and 50%,respectively (HDR 2007). Riceand wheat production mightdrop by 8% and 32%,respectively, by 2050 (IPCC inBangladesh, 2007)

A net negative effect on theyields of rice (Karim et al.1996 in HDR 2007/2008)

Sri Lanka About 0.5◦C temperature riseis predicted to reduce riceoutput by 6%, and increaseddryness will adversely affectyields of tea, rubber, andcoconut (MENR 2000 in HDR2007/2008)

In warm, semiarid regions,deficiency of moisture wouldbe a major constraint (HDR2007–08)

Highest negative impact isestimated by coarse grains andcoconut. An increase in thefrequency of droughts andextreme rainfall events couldresult in a decline in tea yield(Wijeratne 1996 in HDR2007/2008)

Thailand More than $1.75 billion lossesdue to floods, storms, anddroughts between 1989 and2002. During 1991–2000,damage to agricultural areascost up $1.25 billion(Boonpragob 2005)

Increasing temperaturereduced crop yield. Saltwaterintrusion has affected manyagricultural areas

Negative impacts on cornproductivity ranged from5–44%, depending on thelocation of production

Vietnam Flooding in the Red RiverDelta, central Region, andMekong Delta. The MekongRiver Delta flood in 2000brought severe damage to401,342 ha of rice, 85,234 haof farmland, and 16,215 ha offish and shrimp farms

Rice areas affected by droughtdoubled from 77,621 ha in1979–1983 to 175,203 ha in1994–1998 (Cuong 2008 inADB Report 2009). Affectedby severe saltwater intrusion inagricultural areas

Predicts a decrease in springrice yields of 2.4% by 2020and 11.6 % by 2070. Summerrice will be less sensitive toclimate impact than spring ricebut the yield will also decreaseby 4.5% by 2070




agricultural impacts due to climate change in theSouth Asian countries.

Adaptation to climate change

Adaptation to climate change is a new processfor both developed and developing nations. Con-crete experience is limited in applying adapta-tion approaches, and the economic, environmen-tal, and social contexts contribute for uncertain-ties in different countries. The adaptation lineof inquiry reflects the international community’semerging need to prepare for and adapt to cli-mate change and to integrate adaptation issuesinto core policy and decision-making processesand their funding instruments (Parry et al. 2005;TERI 2005).

Adaptation is important in the climate changeissue in two ways: one relating to the assessmentof impacts and vulnerabilities, and the other tothe development and evaluation of response op-tions (Smit and Pilifosova 2001).

Adaptation potential and strategies

There are many adaptation strategies, which canbe followed in particular sectors and regions de-pending upon their vulnerability and sensitivityto climate change. These are based on experi-ence, observation, and speculation about alterna-tives that might be created (Smit and Pilifosova2001).

Adaptation calls for natural resource manage-ment (NRM), food security, social and humancapital, and strengthening of institutional sys-tems (Adger et al. 2003).

The World Development Report (2008) on“Adaptation to and Mitigation of ClimateChange in Agriculture” provides the idea thatthe public sector can facilitate adaptation throughsuch measures as crop and livestock insurance,safety nets, and research on and dissemination offlood-, heat-, and drought-resistant crops. Thisreport point out that new irrigation schemes indryland farming areas are likely to be partic-ularly effective, especially when combined with

complementary reforms and better market accessfor high-value products.

Better climate information is another poten-tially cost-effective way of adapting to climatechange. Contingency planning across sectors issuggested to address uncertainty from climatechange (World Development Report 2008).

Smit and Pilifosova (2001) summarize thatadaptation strategies could be change of topog-raphy of land, use of artificial systems to improvewater use or availability and protect against soilerosion, change in farming practices, change intiming of farm operations, different crop vari-eties, public policies and programs, research intonew technologies, etc., which can be followed inagriculture.

Different adaptation strategies can be fol-lowed in the SAT, namely, improving moni-toring mechanism in climate change studies,implementing sustainable agricultural practices,developing of innovative technologies, seek-ing active participation of local communities,enforcing effective intervention policies, and us-ing strategies for efficient conservation of water(Sivakumar et al. 2005).

Mainstreaming climate changeadaptation in developmentplanning in Asia

There is initiation of national-level adaptationto climate change in Asian countries. Severalleast-developed country members in Asia and pa-cific have prepared National Adaptation Programfor Action (NAPAs), and in India and the PRC,they are undertaking activities in both adapta-tion research and policy. Nongovernmental or-ganizations (NGOs) and research institutes arealso aligning activities toward climate adapta-tion. Adaptation requires an active and meaning-ful participation of all the stakeholders.

Climate change has been identified as a se-rious risk to poverty reduction in developingcountries. Thus, adaptation strategies will needto be integrated into poverty reduction strate-gies in such a way that it incorporates long-term




adaptation in the future rather than short-termreactions to disasters to ensure sustainable de-velopment. If there is mainstreaming of cli-mate change in development initiatives, then thiswill bring both immediate benefits as well asstrengthen people’s ability to deal with futurethreats (Burton et al. 2002; Huq et al. 2003;Adger et al. 2007).

The following discussion outlines thenational-level adaptation strategies in selectedcountries.

China

China established the National CoordinationCommittee on Climate Change (NCCCC), whichpresently comprises 17 ministries and agencies.The NCCCC has done a lot of work in the for-mulation and coordination of China’s importantclimate-change-related policies and measures,providing guidance for response of central andlocal government to climate change.

In 2006, China published its National Cli-mate Change Program for adaptation to climatechange, and some of the objectives for 2010being improving grasslands and restoring themfrom degradation, desertification and salinity, in-creasing water-use efficiency, reducing vulnera-bility of water resources, and improving adapta-tion technology in agriculture.

Some of the technology needs for adapta-tion to climate change in China, identified inthe National Climate Change Program, are high-efficiency water-saving agrotechnologies such asspray and drip irrigation, high-efficiency flood-control, agrobiology, agricultural breeding, new-type fertilizers, disease and pest control, andtechnology for observation and prewarning offlood, drought, sea level rise, agricultural disas-ters, etc. (NDRC 2007).

India

India identified the possibilities of water stressdue to reduction in fresh water systems lead-ing to threat to agriculture and food security in

the first National Communication to the UN-FCCC. It also identified strategies specific todrought vulnerability reduction, such as changesin land-use pattern, water conservation, floodwarning systems, and crop insurance (Prabhakarand Shaw 2008). Ongoing programs such as wa-tershed development programs, command areadevelopment programs, crop diversification, andextension of irrigation facilities to larger areasin addition to various flood control measures insome of the flood-prone areas were identifiedwith a need for common nationwide adaptationstrategy like integrated watershed managementat local and basin levels (Prabhakar et al. 2009).

The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperationis responsible for drought management in India.India Meteorological Department and NationalCenter for Medium Range Weather Forecasting(NCMRWF) under the Ministry of Science andTechnology are responsible for weather forecast-ing and drought monitoring. At national level,Crop Weather Watch Group, and at the statelevel, Weather Watch Group are responsible forassessing the drought and for warning system(Prabhakar and Shaw 2008). The National Disas-ter Management Authority (NDMA) is the apexauthority for disaster management.

Shukla et al. (2003) studied climate changein India and suggested different policy initia-tives that would reduce India’s vulnerability toclimate change, such as faster economic devel-opment with more equitable income distribution,improved disaster management, sustainable sec-toral policies, and careful planning of capital in-tensive and climate sensitive long-life infrastruc-ture assets.

Prabhakar and Shaw (2008) suggested no-regrets adaptation options to cope better withdrought for India:

1. Enhance the local capacity for drought pre-paredness and mitigation (capacities of com-munities and local governments)

2. Improvement in drought prediction andcommunication (clarity in center–state




relationships in dealing with the natural haz-ards such as droughts)

3. Improvement in drought monitoring4. Enhanced operational preparedness for initi-

ating quick response.

Pakistan

In Pakistan, national policies that consider cli-mate change adaptation in their implementa-tion are (1) National Environment Policy (2005),(2) National Sanitation Policy (2006), and (3)National Energy Conservations Policy (2006).Pakistan has established a Global Change ImpactStudies Centre, Prime Minister’s Committee onClimate Change, a NDMA, National Implemen-tation Committee for NEP, and at the top of allthese is the Pakistan Environmental ProtectionCouncil as various national initiatives.

Pakistan views that disaster risk reduction andclimate change responses as a common sphere ofconcern. Pakistan promulgated a National Disas-ter Management Ordinance. Also, a Disaster Re-duction Unit established by UNDP. The organi-zations responsible for disaster management areNDMA, The Federal Flood Commission, Emer-gency Relief Cell, and Pakistan MeteorologicalDepartment (Kundi 2008).

Bangladesh

Bangladesh submitted its National AdaptationPrograms of Action (NAPA) with the UNFCCCSecretariat in November 2005. The ClimateChange Cell has a mandate to continue the NAPAprocess and facilitate implementation of NAPA.The Comprehensive Disaster Management Pro-gram has the goal of mainstreaming disastermanagement and risk reduction into nationalpolicies, institutions, and development processesand to facilitate management of long-term cli-mate risks and uncertainties (Government of thePeople’s Republic of Bangladesh 2005 in HDR2007/2008). The adaptation measures for agri-culture that have been prioritized in BangladeshNAPA are as follows:

� Promoting adaptation to coastal crop agri-culture to combat salinity intrusion throughmaize production under Wet Bed No-tillageMethod and Sorjan systems of cropping intidally flooded agroecosystem.

� Adaptation to agriculture systems in areasprone to enhanced flash flooding—northeastand central region through no-tillage potatocultivation under water hyacinth mulch in wetsown condition, and vegetable cultivation onfloating bed.

� Promotion of research on drought-, flood-, andsaline-tolerant varieties of crops to facilitateadaptation in future.

� Exploring options for insurance and otheremergency preparedness measures to copewith enhanced climatic disasters such as flood,cyclones, and drought (Bangladesh 2007).

Bangladesh is set to officially release threeflood-tolerant rice varieties that would help farm-ers prevent up to a million tons of annual croploss caused by flash floods. The developmentof salinity-tolerant and early maturing rice vari-eties by research organizations is a recent tech-nological development to address salinity andflash flood, respectively, for crop agriculture.A new Climate Change Strategy and ActionPlan have been developed by the Governmentof Bangladesh in 2009 in consultation with civilsociety, including NGOs, research organizations,and the private sector. It was built on the NAPA.As per this, the needs of the poor and vulnera-ble, including women and children, will be pri-oritized in all activities implemented under theAction Plan.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka was the first country in Asia to preparea National Environmental Action Plan in 1992,with further updates published in 1998 and 2003.Priority environmental issues, from a povertyperspective, were identified. Sri Lanka’s PovertyReduction Strategy Papers in March 2003 wasconsidered to be reasonably successful by the




World Bank Environment Department in main-streaming these key environmental issues. Also,community-driven development has a major rolein its success (IDS 2006).

Being a small island nation, Sri Lanka fallsinto the UNFCCC and IPCC’s category of “vul-nerable” small island nations under serious threatfrom various climate change impacts, such assea level rise and severe floods and droughts(UNFCCC 1992; IPCC 2001a; Yamane 2003).

The national communication report toUNFCCC proposed a number of adaptation mea-sures in agriculture, such as developing treecrop agriculture, developing drought-resistantrice varieties, changing land use patterns inlandslide-prone areas, making farmers aware ofclimate change, and changing irrigation methods(Sri Lanka 2000; Yamane 2003).

Thailand

In Thailand, the Ministry of Natural Resourcesand Environment (MONRE) is responsible forgovernment policy, within which the Office ofNatural Resources and Environmental Policy andPlanning (ONEP) is the national focal point tothe UNFCCC. The National Climate ChangeSub-committee was established under the Na-tional Environmental Board after the countryratified the UNFCCC. In July 2007, the gov-ernment upgraded the National Climate ChangeSub-committee to the National Climate ChangeCommittee, chaired by the prime minister. Tech-nical subcommittees are also established underthe national committee to support different as-pects of climate change issues, including mit-igation, vulnerability, and adaptation. Thailandhas already developed the country strategic planon climate change and is currently developingits 10-year climate change plan. A key policyaim is to strengthen the links between measuresto address sustainable development and those toaddress climate change (ADB Report 2009).

In Thailand, national climate change adap-tation plans and implementation for agricul-tural sector includes germplasm banks for ma-

jor crops, increasing the use of degraded landfor flood control, specific policy on food secu-rity, improving water efficiency in cropping andappropriate use of land, experimenting crops inmarginal land areas, financial and technologi-cal support for local communities in adaptation,and forest set-aside program (ONEP 2008; ADBReport 2009).

Vietnam

MONRE is the lead government agency for im-plementing the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Proto-col, and for all climate change activities. Vietnamsubmitted its initial national communication tothe UNFCCC in 2003. The NTP (National Tar-get Program) is officially described as the mainframework for the management and coordinationof CC activities. National strategies are designedto reduce the risk of disasters, and the key in-stitution is the Central Committee for Flood andStorm Control.

Climate change adaptation projects are par-ticularly emerging in the Central Coast Region.Most project activities focus on local levels andare linked to or integrated within ongoing supportby donors and international NGOs to national en-tities and communities for drought, flood, and ty-phoon preparedness and response. In the MekongDelta, adaptation measures were tried at thefarm level, community level, and national level(Suppakorn et al. 2006).

Vietnam does not yet have national or localclimate change adaptation strategies, and na-tional and local capacity building is urgentlyneeded to ensure that policy responses are ad-equate and effective (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert2007).

Even though these countries have alreadystarted their adaptation planning at national level,still they need to act at a faster and sooner paceconcerning progress in mainstreaming climatechange adaptation into sustainable developmentplanning. These policies and institutions are con-strained by lack of knowledge and technology,




resources, interest, etc., and hinder the processin these developing countries.

Farm-level adaptation to climate change

Farmers are already adapting in their own wayto climate change, which is happening. (WorldDevelopment Report 2008). Adaptation dependson the cost of adaptive measures, existence of ap-propriate institutions, access to technology, andbiophysical constraints such as land and waterresource availability, soil characteristics, geneticdiversity, and topography, etc. (Sivakumar et al.2005).

Kelly and Adger (2000) argue that ratherthan to synthetically identify several regions andsectors as vulnerable and propose “new” waysto adapt to the climate change risk as recom-mended by the climate change regime, recog-nizing and enhancing the current adaptive ca-pacities and strategies that are often neglected oroverlooked are more important. This implies thatindigenous technologies and agrarian practicescan be supported to enhance adaptation strate-gies. This can be done through identifying thehistorically developed traditional capacities andspecific strategies, which are being adopted tocope with the particular climate situation suchas drought and flood and also by giving moreresearch attention to improve and enhance theirefficiency, effectiveness, and adaptability withrespect to the current and future extreme climateevents.

Adaptation efforts can be made more effec-tive with enhanced coordination and institutionalsupport from government (OECD 2008; ADBReport 2009).

This research effort should be seen as com-plementing the aforementioned arguments, andit will identify the adaptive capacity and adap-tation strategies of the selected regions, con-sidering the importance of currently adoptedadaptation strategies by farmers of a particularregion with a specific climate change and vulner-ability status. Furthermore, the authors wish tosupport the argument that climate change adap-

tation at different levels needs to be providedwith technological, research, institutional, andpolicy support from different sources, viz. gov-ernment, NGOs, local institutions, community-level groups, or societies, and also internationalcooperation between different regions in order tostrengthen and improve the adaptive capacity offarmers/region.

Resilience mechanisms and copingstrategies

Climate change is a dynamic process and thereis no silver bullet to address the impacts of cli-mate change effects. Adaptation alone cannothelp coping with climate change effects. Adap-tation and mitigation should go hand-in-hand.A blend of crop improvement and NRM tech-nologies help in overcoming the climate changeeffects in agricultural production. Better fore-casting methods, best-bet interventions, NRMand knowledge sharing in the short run, use ofadapted crop cultivars and appropriate crop, andNRM methods and better policies holds the keyin the long run to cope with climate change.Some of the current products and technologiesin agriculture that help in coping up with climatechange are presented below.

� Water managementWater is the critical input for agriculture, andacross the SAT, water is the most limiting fac-tor for crop production. Predictions of futurerainfall are less certain. It is generally agreedthat climate change will modify rainfall, evap-oration, runoff, and soil moisture storage,while warmer temperatures would lead to anincrease in crop water requirements. Improv-ing crop production under the scenario of re-duced supply and increased demand dependsto a large extent on overcoming soil moistureproblems through better capture and storageof rainwater and through improved use effi-ciency. Much of the past work on agriculturalwater management focused on managing thewater at plot level. The amount of water thatcan be conserved and utilized within the plot




through soil management practices is limitedby the rooting depth of the crop and the avail-able water storage capacity of the soil. Theselimiting factors often combine to result in in-sufficient water to sustain crop growth duringprolonged dry spells. Water harvesting tech-nologies with storage components have notreceived much attention (Rockstrom 2000).A significant knowledge gap exists on theeconomic viability of such systems. Creatingstorage structures and irrigation systems re-quire substantial investment, which is beyondthe capacity of most rural communities. Al-most 95% of the developing countries’ wa-ter withdrawals are used to irrigate farmlands.Therefore, water policy to make more efficientuse of water for agriculture is crucial. Thisinvolves understanding water flows and wa-ter quality, improved rainwater harvesting andwater storage, and diversification of irrigationtechniques. Such considerations will need tobe framed in the context of rapidly expandingpopulations that are predicted to exacerbateintersectoral competition for abstracted watersupplies. Robust irrigation infrastructure maybe necessary to cope with climate change risksin the short to medium term. Maintenance ofexisting infrastructure too deserves early at-tention.

� Advance warning and disaster managementEnhancing adaptive capacity of South Asianpopulations and ecosystems will require mul-tiple actions at various levels. Regional coop-eration mechanisms on adaptation need to beaddressed on a high-priority basis, especiallyin dealing with trans-boundary issues such asintegrated river basin management, forest firemanagement, and early warning systems. Es-tablishment of advance warning systems, cli-mate proofing of infrastructure, and keepingthe disaster management system in high alertare very critical in coping with the naturalcalamities.

� Microdosing of fertilizersMost soils in SA are both thirsty and hun-gry. While advocating better soil and water

conservation practices, it is important to rec-tify the soil’s severe phosphorus and nitrogendeficiency with mini-doses of fertilizer—justone-sixth of the amounts used in developedcountries. This practice, called “microdosing”(application of fertilizer about a soda-pop bot-tle capful per plant) makes the roots to de-velop early and capture water and nutrientsthat otherwise would have gone to waste. Evenwith fertilizer costs approximately three timeshigher in Africa than in those in the developedworld, microdosing is profitable and has re-sulted in yield increases averaging around 50%in thousands of trials with millet, sorghum, andmaize in West and South Africa (Tabo et al.2005). The same technology can be effectivelyused in drylands of South Asia.

� Developing climate resilient crops(a) Submergence tolerance

Water inundation due to flash floods is amajor problem in Bangladesh and easternIndia, where rice is the predominant foodcrop. Poor drainage facilities in these ar-eas further complicates the problem. De-velopment of submergence-tolerant ricecultivars is the best option under suchconditions. Researchers at IRRI and theUniversity of California-Davis identifieda submergence-tolerance gene (Sub 1) inthe Indian rice variety FR13A and used itin development of submergence-tolerantrice varieties for cultivation in South andSoutheast Asia (Xu et al. 2006). These va-rieties offer scope to cope with the waterinundation with high rainfall.

(b) Stay-green trait to combat the heat anddroughtCrops such as sorghum and pearl millet—staple cereal grains and fodder crop grownby subsistence farmers in sub-SaharanAfrica and the Indian subcontinent—are the most heat- and drought-hardycrops. Researchers at ICRISAT and else-where used conventional breeding andmarker-assisted selection to identify andisolate genes and improve sorghum for




“stay-green” trait that allow the plant tomature normally in low-moisture, high-heat stress areas. “Stay-green” genes de-lay the senescence of leaves, help thenormal grain filling, and reduce the in-cidence of lodging (Reddy et al. 2007).Crops/cultivars (e.g., sorghum hybrid par-ents ICSR 21002, ICSV 21011, and ICSB371) with stay-green trait form an impor-tant tool to cope with the drought stressin drylands.

(c) Exploitation of photoperiod sensitivityMost crops are photoperiod-sensitive, andthis trait can be exploited for boosting thecrop yields under variable rainfall. For ex-ample, in sorghum and pearl millet, earlierworkers developed photoperiod-sensitivebreeding lines that give farmers an addedtool to adapt to rainfall variability. Theseplants mature at the time of year whenconditions are most likely to be favor-able for grain development, regardless ofwhen they are planted (Clerget et al. 2007).Photoperiod-sensitive sorghum and pearlmillet will adjust their flowering and grainfilling at a roughly constant calendar date,which tends to be the period when the rainshave stopped, but there is still enough soilwater to complete grain development.

(d) High temperature tolerancePearl millet and sorghum can tolerate tem-peratures above 40◦C and set seed. Someof the pearl millet hybrids developed byprivate sector in India such as 9444 and86 M 64 found yielding high under tem-peratures as high as 44◦C during sum-mer season in India. Currently, they arehighly popular with the farmers in majorpearl millet growing states of Rajasthan,Haryana, and Gujarat in India.

Studies on impact of temperature in-crease on rates of crop growth and yield(Cooper et al. 2009) indicate that there willbe reduction in “time to maturity” of cul-tivars. This means in a warmer world, acurrently defined “medium duration” type

will become a “short-duration” type. Con-sidering this, the crop improvement pro-grams in future should focus on mediumto late maturing genotypes with heat toler-ance and pest and disease resistance to dealwith the yield reduction resulting fromtemperature increase.

� Knowledge sharing and policy perspectivesCapacity enhancement of stakeholders is verycritical, particularly on usage of weather fore-casts, climate-adapted cultivars, resource con-servation practices, and market intelligence.On-farm testing of products and technologiesand village-level studies on coping mecha-nisms give valuable information. Addressingnew climate conditions will require complexpolicies and adjustments at many levels in de-veloping country agriculture.

Policy is critical in shaping the copingmechanisms. However, climate policy alonewill not solve the climate change problem. Cli-mate outcomes will be influenced not only byclimate-specific policies but also by the devel-opment path chosen (IGES 2008). Asia andAfrica, which are already experiencing the ad-verse impacts of climate change, cannot af-ford to “wait and see” or follow the historic,unsustainable, carbon-intensive developmentpath of industrialized countries. Developingcountries in Asia and Africa have an outstand-ing backlog of sustainable development andpoverty reduction priorities, into which cli-mate change mitigation and adaptation poli-cies must not be integrated.

Conclusions

Research on long-term climate change was themajor issue focused in early climate change stud-ies. Recently, climate variability studies have ob-tained a significant attention from the climaticresearchers. This research effort is looking intoboth the long-term changes and short-term vari-ability in climate.

The above discussions imply that countries,particularly in the SAT, are vulnerable to the




current climate situations and climatic shocksin future. Thus, understanding the nature and de-gree of vulnerability is the initial concern of anyclimate change study to build adaptation strate-gies along with understanding the ground leveladoption of adaptation strategies to cope with thecurrent climatic situation.

On the basis of these discussions, this chapteraims to draw attention to three issues, which arebeing addressed through the ongoing researchefforts at ICRISAT and elsewhere. They are asfollows:

1. The first aim of this research effort isto understand the climate change context(both socioeconomic and environmental/biophysical), which decides the vulnerabil-ity of the region. This provides a system-atic investigation on the argument that degreeof climate change vulnerability depends onsocioeconomic, political, and environmentalfactors, and the results will help to suggest ondevelopment of various strategies and policiesto address different dimensions of climatechange vulnerability in an integrated way.

2. The next step will entail the linking betweenchanges in climate and climate variability andthe changes in different aspects such as crop-ping pattern, income and employment status,and gender issues of vulnerability to climatechange along with institutional and policyreforms over the years. Here, the main aimis to increase the understanding of ongoingand future climate change impacts and rein-force the need for measures to deal with cli-mate change. This will empirically help un-derstand, test, and argue the links betweenclimate change risk and changes in socioe-conomic development status of a region aspart of poverty reduction by looking into theimpacts of climate change on these aspects.

3. Another major focus is recognizing the pastand current coping and adaptation strategiesadopted in the farm households to cope withthe climate change impacts. This will help tocombine and link the traditional, local, and in-

digenous knowledge on climate change withthe scientific knowledge on climate change.

This research is therefore a comprehensive ef-fort to understand and analyze the vulnerabilityto and impacts of climate change and the adapta-tion strategies of farmers in the selected regions.It is expected that by addressing the above threeissues, this study will help addressing the cli-mate change challenge in the semiarid regionsof Asia through providing suggestions on strate-gies and policies to reduce the vulnerability andto strengthen adaptive capacity, and on adapta-tion opportunities and options of the farmers tocope better with the future climate change.

Future line of investigation

To explore further the issue of climate changeadaptation, research into the following areas willneed to be explored further.

1. Identify the constraints in, and opportunitiesfor, adoption of adaptation strategies withinSAT of Asia. Also, there is a need to iden-tify the constraints and gaps in resources foradaptation strategies.

2. Sociological approach to vulnerability andadaptation, including the role of social cap-ital, social networks, and institutions in en-hancing resilience to climate change.

3. Recognize the effectiveness of adaptationstrategies and also look into how adaptationitself can lead to constraints for households.

4. Exploring the best practices or strategies andidentifying the ways to enhance its capacitiesand opportunities, which provides reducedclimate change vulnerability and improvedadaptive capacity.

5. In agriculture, early warning and climateforecasting is very much essential to avoidlosses during natural calamities. So, it isnecessary to develop a regional coopera-tion for information exchange about climatechange, including early warning and forecast-ing. Also, it is important internalize the crop




adaptation research to climate change in allthe crop improvement programs in the re-gion, prioritizing the major impacts of cli-mate change effects on crop production in therespective country/region.

This will help in laying the foundation for de-veloping, implementing, and monitoring adapta-tion strategies in the SAT in Asia and to becomemore resilient to climate change in future.

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Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Yadav/Crop Adaptation to Climate Change) || Climate Change Impact in Agriculture: Vulnerability and Adaptation Concerns of Semiarid Tropics in Asia