Crl Congressional District Foreclosure Projections

8/14/2019 Crl Congressional District Foreclosure Projections

1/14

Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District

1/27/08 1 of 14

State CongressionalDistrict [0]

ProjectedForeclosures

in 2009[1]

ProjectedForeclosuresover next four

years [2]

Expected benefit of court-supervised

modifications(# of homes saved) [3]

AK 00 6,015 20,027 1,9

AL 01 6,747 22,464 2,2

AL 02 5,155 17,164 1,6

AL 03 4,784 15,927 1,5

AL 04 3,918 13,044 1,2

AL 05 5,782 19,251 1,9

AL 06 7,961 26,506 2,6

AL 07 4,508 15,008 1,4

AR 01 3,426 11,405 1,1 AR 02 4,852 16,156 1,5

AR 03 6,232 20,749 2,0

AR 04 2,825 9,405 9

AR 05 0 0

AR 08 0 0

AZ 01 6,336 21,093 2,0

AZ 02 12,547 41,775 4,12

AZ 03 8,514 28,345 2,7

AZ 04 5,307 17,668 1,7

AZ 05 5,963 19,852 1,9

AZ 06 7,907 26,324 2,6

AZ 07 7,995 26,620 2,6

AZ 08 10,237 34,082 3,36

CA 01 5,726 19,065 1,883

CA 02 6,423 21,384 2,112

CA 03 10,460 34,826 3,440

CA 04 9,417 31,351 3,096

CA 05 6,623 22,050 2,178

CA 06 6,079 20,239 1,999CA 07 8,231 27,403 2,707

CA 08 2,721 9,060 895

CA 09 5,598 18,636 1,841

CA 10 4,164 13,865 1,369

CA 11 6,425 21,391 2,113

CA 12 4,667 15,537 1,534

CA 13 3,408 11,347 1,121


2/14


1/27/08 2 of 14



in 2009[1]


years [2]



CA 14 2,998 9,982 986

CA 15 2,284 7,605 751

CA 16 2,757 9,180 907

CA 17 3,861 12,856 1,270

CA 18 7,462 24,843 2,454

CA 19 6,006 19,997 1,975

CA 20 5,271 17,550 1,733

CA 21 5,972 19,884 1,964

CA 22 6,143 20,451 2,020CA 23 3,460 11,521 1,138

CA 24 6,169 20,540 2,029

CA 25 8,772 29,206 2,885

CA 26 7,941 26,439 2,611

CA 27 5,687 18,936 1,870

CA 28 1,872 6,231 615

CA 29 2,251 7,495 740

CA 30 2,655 8,840 873

CA 31 1,446 4,815 476

CA 32 2,179 7,254 716

CA 33 2,431 8,095 799

CA 34 2,703 8,998 889

CA 35 3,448 11,480 1,134

CA 36 4,431 14,751 1,457

CA 37 5,104 16,992 1,678

CA 38 2,633 8,768 866

CA 39 4,786 15,933 1,574

CA 40 5,228 17,405 1,719

CA 41 9,003 29,973 2,960CA 42 5,475 18,228 1,800

CA 43 4,984 16,595 1,639

CA 44 9,446 31,448 3,106

CA 45 9,025 30,048 2,968

CA 46 4,470 14,883 1,470

CA 47 1,580 5,262 520

CA 48 5,211 17,350 1,714


3/14


1/27/08 3 of 14



in 2009[1]


years [2]



CA 49 5,629 18,741 1,851

CA 50 5,444 18,124 1,790

CA 51 7,242 24,111 2,381

CA 52 6,313 21,019 2,076

CA 53 2,382 7,930 783

CO 01 8,490 28,266 2,792

CO 02 9,115 30,347 2,997

CO 03 9,288 30,924 3,054

CO 04 7,616 25,357 2,504CO 05 11,042 36,764 3,631

CO 06 9,748 32,453 3,205

CO 07 5,341 17,782 1,756

CT 01 7,283 24,247 2,395

CT 02 8,077 26,893 2,656

CT 03 7,329 24,399 2,410

CT 04 4,490 14,948 1,476

CT 05 6,313 21,019 2,076

DC 98 5,429 18,075 1,785

DE 00 12,457 41,473 4,096

FL 01 7,605 25,319 2,501

FL 02 4,408 14,675 1,449

FL 03 7,915 26,351 2,603

FL 04 5,642 18,785 1,855

FL 05 7,709 25,664 2,535

FL 06 4,129 13,746 1,358

FL 07 7,472 24,876 2,457

FL 08 6,218 20,703 2,045

FL 09 7,069 23,534 2,324FL 10 6,723 22,384 2,211

FL 11 5,929 19,740 1,950

FL 12 6,109 20,338 2,009

FL 13 7,486 24,924 2,462

FL 14 14,211 47,314 4,673

FL 15 10,162 33,832 3,341

FL 16 10,327 34,381 3,396


4/14


5/14


1/27/08 5 of 14



in 2009[1]


years [2]



IL 02 6,105 20,326 2,007

IL 03 4,808 16,008 1,581

IL 04 2,671 8,892 878

IL 05 3,200 10,654 1,052

IL 06 6,242 20,782 2,053

IL 07 4,007 13,342 1,318

IL 08 7,617 25,360 2,505

IL 09 3,697 12,308 1,216

IL 10 3,878 12,912 1,275IL 11 6,531 21,746 2,148

IL 12 5,491 18,281 1,806

IL 13 5,999 19,972 1,973

IL 14 7,739 25,767 2,545

IL 15 3,416 11,372 1,123

IL 16 5,100 16,980 1,677

IL 17 3,313 11,029 1,089

IL 18 3,465 11,537 1,139

IL 19 1,761 5,863 579

IN 01 8,490 28,267 2,792

IN 02 8,554 28,479 2,813

IN 03 9,259 30,826 3,045

IN 04 12,478 41,545 4,103

IN 05 13,149 43,779 4,324

IN 06 7,580 25,238 2,493

IN 07 7,512 25,009 2,470

IN 08 4,499 14,979 1,479

IN 09 5,609 18,673 1,844

KS 01 2,652 8,831 872KS 02 3,938 13,110 1,295

KS 03 7,269 24,202 2,390

KS 04 5,439 18,108 1,788

KY 01 2,519 8,387 828

KY 02 3,912 13,026 1,286

KY 03 5,776 19,232 1,899

KY 04 4,873 16,224 1,602


6/14


1/27/08 6 of 14



in 2009[1]


years [2]



KY 05 1,248 4,157 411

KY 06 3,705 12,334 1,218

KY 07 0 0 0

LA 01 4,956 16,501 1,630

LA 02 2,144 7,137 705

LA 03 3,380 11,254 1,112

LA 04 4,662 15,520 1,533

LA 05 2,521 8,394 829

LA 06 6,677 22,229 2,195LA 07 3,815 12,702 1,254

MA 01 4,958 16,507 1,630

MA 02 7,585 25,253 2,494

MA 03 8,577 28,556 2,820

MA 04 6,763 22,517 2,224

MA 05 8,961 29,835 2,947

MA 06 9,730 32,394 3,199

MA 07 7,356 24,491 2,419

MA 08 4,526 15,067 1,488

MA 09 7,561 25,172 2,486

MA 10 9,477 31,552 3,116

MD 01 8,130 27,066 2,673

MD 02 6,317 21,030 2,077

MD 03 3,904 12,998 1,284

MD 04 9,087 30,255 2,988

MD 05 8,235 27,416 2,708

MD 06 6,700 22,307 2,203

MD 07 2,864 9,536 942

MD 08 4,425 14,731 1,455ME 01 9,611 31,998 3,160

ME 02 4,689 15,610 1,542

MI 01 6,311 21,012 2,075

MI 02 6,427 21,398 2,113

MI 03 6,563 21,852 2,158

MI 04 5,555 18,494 1,827

MI 05 10,964 36,503 3,605


7/14


8/14


1/27/08 8 of 14



in 2009[1]


years [2]



NC 02 6,132 20,415 2,016

NC 03 4,403 14,660 1,448

NC 04 6,135 20,426 2,017

NC 05 4,758 15,840 1,564

NC 06 5,310 17,679 1,746

NC 07 4,765 15,863 1,567

NC 08 4,960 16,512 1,631

NC 09 7,708 25,662 2,535

NC 10 3,419 11,384 1,124NC 11 5,030 16,745 1,654

NC 12 2,501 8,328 823

NC 13 3,698 12,310 1,216

ND 00 1,887 6,283 621

NE 00 0 1 0

NE 01 3,522 11,726 1,158

NE 02 5,393 17,957 1,774

NE 03 2,131 7,097 701

NH 01 10,570 35,191 3,476

NH 02 7,724 25,717 2,540

NJ 01 10,658 35,483 3,505

NJ 02 8,922 29,706 2,934

NJ 03 10,797 35,948 3,550

NJ 04 8,346 27,786 2,744

NJ 05 7,331 24,408 2,411

NJ 06 6,560 21,840 2,157

NJ 07 5,750 19,145 1,891

NJ 08 5,075 16,898 1,669

NJ 09 4,938 16,441 1,624NJ 10 4,835 16,097 1,590

NJ 11 5,986 19,930 1,968

NJ 12 5,768 19,205 1,897

NJ 13 2,360 7,859 776

NM 01 7,190 23,939 2,364

NM 02 2,763 9,199 909

NM 03 2,764 9,201 909


9/14


1/27/08 9 of 14



in 2009[1]


years [2]



NM 13 0 0 0

NV 01 9,102 30,305 2,993

NV 02 7,708 25,661 2,534

NV 03 8,107 26,990 2,666

NV 04 2 6 1

NY 01 6,137 20,432 2,018

NY 02 3,775 12,569 1,241

NY 03 3,040 10,121 1,000

NY 04 3,438 11,447 1,131NY 05 1,507 5,017 496

NY 06 3,590 11,953 1,181

NY 07 1,211 4,031 398

NY 08 862 2,870 283

NY 09 1,176 3,917 387

NY 10 1,616 5,381 531

NY 11 446 1,486 147

NY 12 537 1,787 177

NY 13 2,759 9,187 907

NY 14 590 1,966 194

NY 15 298 992 98

NY 16 474 1,579 156

NY 17 2,287 7,616 752

NY 18 2,425 8,075 798

NY 19 5,642 18,784 1,855

NY 20 4,003 13,329 1,316

NY 21 3,255 10,836 1,070

NY 22 3,117 10,379 1,025

NY 23 2,303 7,669 757NY 24 2,245 7,476 738

NY 25 4,203 13,992 1,382

NY 26 3,981 13,254 1,309

NY 27 2,742 9,129 902

NY 28 2,821 9,392 928

NY 29 2,117 7,048 696

OH 01 5,513 18,355 1,813


10/14


1/27/08 10 of 14



in 2009[1]


years [2]



OH 02 4,316 14,370 1,419

OH 03 7,482 24,909 2,460

OH 04 4,571 15,217 1,503

OH 05 3,573 11,897 1,175

OH 06 2,885 9,605 949

OH 07 6,874 22,887 2,260

OH 08 2,989 9,950 983

OH 09 5,661 18,849 1,862

OH 10 5,338 17,773 1,755OH 11 5,441 18,115 1,789

OH 12 7,063 23,516 2,323

OH 13 5,155 17,161 1,695

OH 14 4,767 15,870 1,567

OH 15 4,718 15,708 1,551

OH 16 3,780 12,585 1,243

OH 17 3,154 10,501 1,037

OH 18 2,294 7,638 754

OK 01 17,016 56,651 5,595

OK 02 4,196 13,970 1,380

OK 03 6,193 20,620 2,037

OK 04 13,057 43,470 4,293

OK 05 9,544 31,777 3,138

OK 13 0 1 0

OR 01 6,141 20,445 2,019

OR 02 6,312 21,015 2,076

OR 03 5,848 19,470 1,923

OR 04 5,901 19,645 1,940

OR 05 3,791 12,623 1,247PA 01 7,546 25,124 2,481

PA 02 3,380 11,254 1,112

PA 03 2,954 9,836 971

PA 04 3,619 12,049 1,190

PA 05 2,590 8,623 852

PA 06 7,700 25,638 2,532

PA 07 4,871 16,216 1,602


11/14


12/14


13/14


1/27/08 13 of 14



in 2009[1]


years [2]



VA 06 5,578 18,572 1,8

VA 07 5,140 17,115 1,69

VA 08 7,008 23,333 2,3

VA 09 2,583 8,600 8

VA 10 9,636 32,082 3,1

VA 11 4,532 15,090 1,49

VT 00 5,582 18,586 1,8

WA 01 5,828 19,404 1,9

WA 02 6,906 22,992 2,2 WA 03 7,674 25,549 2,5

WA 04 8,008 26,662 2,6

WA 05 6,707 22,329 2,2

WA 06 6,669 22,204 2,1

WA 07 4,347 14,471 1,4

WA 08 6,506 21,660 2,1

WA 09 4,156 13,835 1,3

WI 01 5,831 19,413 1,9

WI 02 2,867 9,546 9

WI 03 3,208 10,681 1,0

WI 04 5,838 19,436 1,9

WI 05 5,347 17,802 1,7

WI 06 3,245 10,804 1,0

WI 07 2,954 9,835 9

WI 08 3,409 11,348 1,1

WV 01 2,512 8,362 8

WV 02 4,274 14,231 1,4

WV 03 2,314 7,703 7

WY 00 4,466 14,870 1,4 WY 02 1 4

WY 03 0 1

WY 04 1 2

United States (rounded) 2,432,900 8,100,000 800,000


14/14


NOTES[0] Shares of projected foreclosures for congressional districts were estimated using the McDash mortgage database.

Data aggregated based on latest available matching of zipcodes to Congressional district (109 th Congress). Total of 22,530,041 first lien mortgages secured by single family house, condo, townhome, or multifamily home were

analyzed for this purpose. All the mortgages are outstanding by the middle of 2008. For any of the mortgages, if it isin foreclosure process, or if it has at least three late payments for the past 12 months by the middle of 2008, themortgage is projected to foreclose eventually. # of mortgages projected to foreclose was aggregated to Zip codelevel. Zip codes were then assigned to congressional districts. # of mortgages projected to foreclose was thenaggregated from Zip code level to congressional district level weighted by portion of the Zip code in thecongressional district. Finally, # of mortgages projected to foreclose for congressional districts are divided by thetotal of US projected foreclosures to get the share of projected foreclosures for congressional districts. Districts that are represented in the McDash data in significantly greater proportion than their share of the overall housingmarket may show an overly high foreclosure projection.

[1] Shares of projected foreclosures for congressional districts multiply by MBA projections of foreclosures in 2009(2,432,900).

[2]

Shares of projected foreclosures for congressional districts multiply by Credit Suisse projections of foreclosuresover next 5 years (8,100,000).

[3] Shares of projected foreclosures for congressional districts multiply by Moodys Economy.com projected reduction on foreclosures due to court-supervised modifications (800,000).

Documents

Crl Congressional District Foreclosure Projections