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Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby Jack Cosby University of Virginia University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical Scientific Justification for Using the Critical Loads Approach Loads Approach Geochemical Processes Geochemical Processes Patterns of Response Patterns of Response Dynamics of Response Dynamics of Response

Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

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Page 1: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CACritical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA

February 15-18 2005February 15-18 2005

Jack CosbyJack Cosby

University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia

Scientific Justification for Using the Critical Loads Scientific Justification for Using the Critical Loads ApproachApproach

Geochemical ProcessesGeochemical Processes

Patterns of ResponsePatterns of Response

Dynamics of ResponseDynamics of Response

Page 2: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CACritical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA

February 15-18 2005February 15-18 2005

Jack CosbyJack Cosby

University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia

Scientific Justification for Using the Critical Loads Scientific Justification for Using the Critical Loads ApproachApproach

Geochemical ProcessesGeochemical Processes

Patterns of ResponsePatterns of Response

Dynamics of ResponseDynamics of Response

Page 3: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Atmosphere

Soil andSoil Water

Stream Water

Al-X

BC-X

CO2

Al(OH)3

HCO3

BC+

BC+

H+ Al 3+

HCO3

ANC > 0.0ANC > 0.0

Page 4: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Atmosphere

Soil andSoil Water

Stream Water

Al-X

Al(OH)3

HCO3

H+ Al 3+

Al 3+

CO2

Al(OH)3

CO2 Al 3+HCO3

H+ OH -

ANC = 0.0ANC = 0.0

Page 5: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Atmosphere

Soil andSoil Water

Stream Water

Al-X

BC-X

CO2

Al(OH)3

HCO3

BC+

BC+

H+ Al 3+

HCO3

Primary Mineral

BC+ Weathering

Long-term Steady-Long-term Steady-state Conditionstate Condition

Weathering rate = Weathering rate = ANC production rateANC production rate

ANCANCSSSS > 0.0 > 0.0

Page 6: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Atmosphere

Soil andSoil Water

Stream Water

Effects of Acidic Effects of Acidic Deposition on Deposition on

Soils and Soils and Drainage WatersDrainage Waters

H2SO4

Al-X

BC-X

CO2

Al(OH)3

HCO3

BC+

BC+

H+ Al 3+

HCO3

BC+ Weathering

ANCANCSSSS > 0.0 > 0.0

Page 7: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Atmosphere

Soil andSoil Water

Stream Water

Al-X

BC-X

CO2

Al(OH)3

HCO3

BC+

BC+

H+ Al 3+

HCO3

BC+ Weathering

H+ OH-

H2SO4

SO42-

SO4 -X

Initial Response to Initial Response to Acidic DepositionAcidic Deposition

- without mobile anion -- without mobile anion -

Buffering by adsorption Buffering by adsorption of sulphate anionof sulphate anion

ANC > 0.0ANC > 0.0

Page 8: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Atmosphere

Soil andSoil Water

Stream Water

Al-X

BC-X

CO2

Al(OH)3

HCO3

BC+

BC+

H+ Al 3+

HCO3

BC+ Weathering

H+

H2SO4

SO42-

SO4 -X

SO42-

SO42-

Initial Response to Initial Response to Acidic DepositionAcidic Deposition

- with mobile anion -- with mobile anion -

Buffering by cation Buffering by cation exchangeexchange

ANC > 0.0ANC > 0.0

( neutral salt ( neutral salt of sulphate )of sulphate )

Page 9: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Atmosphere

Soil andSoil Water

Stream Water

Long-term Response Long-term Response to Acidic Depositionto Acidic Deposition

depletion of soil depletion of soil base saturationbase saturation

Al-X

CO2

Al(OH)3

BC+

BC+

H+ Al 3+

HCO3

Al 3+

BC+ Weathering

Al(OH)3

CO2 Al 3+HCO3

H+ OH -

H+

H2SO4

SO42-

SO4 -X

SO42-

SO42-

???

Final ANC Final ANC depends on depends on

relative relative magnitudes of magnitudes of

BC and SOBC and SO44

Page 10: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Atmosphere

Soil andSoil Water

Stream Water

Long-term Response Long-term Response to Acidic Depositionto Acidic Deposition

depletion of soil depletion of soil base saturationbase saturation

Al-X

CO2

Al(OH)3

BC+

BC+

H+ Al 3+

HCO3

Al 3+

BC+ Weathering

Al(OH)3

CO2 Al 3+HCO3

H+ OH -

H+

H2SO4

SO42-

SO4 -X

SO42-

SO42-

HCO3

If BC > SOIf BC > SO44

ANC > 0.0ANC > 0.0

( but < ANC( but < ANCSS SS ))

Page 11: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Atmosphere

Soil andSoil Water

Stream Water

Long-term Response Long-term Response to Acidic Depositionto Acidic Deposition

depletion of soil depletion of soil base saturationbase saturation

Al-X

CO2

Al(OH)3

BC+

BC+

H+ Al 3+

HCO3

Al 3+

BC+ Weathering

Al(OH)3

CO2 Al 3+HCO3

H+ OH -

H+

H2SO4

SO42-

SO4 -X

SO42-

SO42-

H+ Al3+

If SOIf SO44 > BC > BC

ANC < 0.0ANC < 0.0

Page 12: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Atmosphere

Soil andSoil Water

Stream Water

Initial Recovery from Initial Recovery from Acidic DepositionAcidic Deposition

replenishment of replenishment of soil base saturationsoil base saturation

Al-X

CO2

Al(OH)3

BC+

H+ Al 3+

HCO3

Al 3+

BC+ Weathering

Al(OH)3

CO2 Al 3+HCO3

H+ OH -

ANC ~ 0.0ANC ~ 0.0

( ANC < ANC( ANC < ANCSSSS ) )

Page 13: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Atmosphere

Soil andSoil Water

Stream Water

Final Recovery from Final Recovery from Acidic DepositionAcidic Deposition

soil base saturation soil base saturation restoredrestored

Al-X

BC-X

CO2

Al(OH)3

HCO3

BC+

BC+

H+ Al 3+

HCO3

BC+ Weathering

ANC = ANCANC = ANCSSSS

Page 14: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CACritical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA

February 15-18 2005February 15-18 2005

Jack CosbyJack Cosby

University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia

Scientific Justification for Using the Critical Loads Scientific Justification for Using the Critical Loads ApproachApproach

Geochemical ProcessesGeochemical Processes

Patterns of ResponsePatterns of Response

Dynamics of ResponseDynamics of Response

Page 15: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Use Dynamic Model for Use Dynamic Model for Quantitative Understanding Quantitative Understanding

of Changes in Soil of Changes in Soil Properties Responsible for Properties Responsible for Time Scales of Acidification Time Scales of Acidification

and Recoveryand Recovery

-60

-30

0

30

60

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

AN

C u

eq/L BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%-60

-30

0

30

60

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

AN

C u

eq/L BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

Soi

l pH

BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

Soi

l pH

BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

Soi

l pH

BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%

Page 16: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Use Dynamic Model for Use Dynamic Model for Quantitative Understanding Quantitative Understanding

of Changes in Soil Acid-of Changes in Soil Acid-Base Properties During Base Properties During

Acidification and RecoveryAcidification and Recovery

-60

-30

0

30

60

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

AN

C u

eq/L BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%

A

B

-60

-30

0

30

60

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

AN

C u

eq/L BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%

A

B

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

Soi

l pH

BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%

A

B

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

Soi

l pH

BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

Soi

l pH

BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

Soi

l pH

BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%

A

B

Page 17: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Use Dynamic Model for Use Dynamic Model for Quantitative Understanding Quantitative Understanding

of Changes in Soil Acid-of Changes in Soil Acid-Base Properties During Base Properties During

Acidification and RecoveryAcidification and Recovery

-60

-30

0

30

60

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

AN

C u

eq/L BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%

A

B

C-60

-30

0

30

60

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

AN

C u

eq/L BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%

A

B

C

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

Soi

l pH

BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%

A

B

C

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

Soi

l pH

BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

Soi

l pH

BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%

A

B

C

Page 18: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Use Dynamic Model for Use Dynamic Model for Quantitative Understanding Quantitative Understanding

of Changes in Soil Acid-of Changes in Soil Acid-Base Properties During Base Properties During

Acidification and RecoveryAcidification and Recovery

-60

-30

0

30

60

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

AN

C u

eq/L BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%

A

B

C

D

-60

-30

0

30

60

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

AN

C u

eq/L BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%

A

B

C

D

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

Soi

l pH

BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%

A

B

C

D

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

Soi

l pH

BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

Soi

l pH

BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

Soi

l pH

BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%

A

B

C

D

Page 19: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Use Dynamic Model for Use Dynamic Model for Quantitative Understanding Quantitative Understanding

of Changes in Soil Acid-of Changes in Soil Acid-Base Properties During Base Properties During

Acidification and RecoveryAcidification and Recovery

-60

-30

0

30

60

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

AN

C u

eq/L BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%

A

B

C

D

-60

-30

0

30

60

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

AN

C u

eq/L BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%

A

B

C

D

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

Soi

l pH

BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%

A

B

C

D

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

Soi

l pH

BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

Soi

l pH

BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0 50 100 150 200

SO4 ueq/L

Soi

l pH

BS = 20%

BS = 15%

BS = 10%

BS = 5%

A

B

C

D

Page 20: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CACritical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA

February 15-18 2005February 15-18 2005

Jack CosbyJack Cosby

University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia

Scientific Justification for Using the Critical Loads Scientific Justification for Using the Critical Loads ApproachApproach

Geochemical ProcessesGeochemical Processes

Patterns of ResponsePatterns of Response

Dynamics of ResponseDynamics of Response

Page 21: Critical Loads Meeting at Mission Inn, Riverside CA February 15-18 2005 Jack Cosby University of Virginia Scientific Justification for Using the Critical

Recovery delay time

From the UN ECE ICP mapping and

modeling (Max Posch)

DDT:Damage delay time

RDT:Recovery delay time

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5

Critical load

Critical response

Chemical target (ANC)B

iolo

gic

al

res

po

ns

eA

cid

de

po

sit

ion

Ch

em

ica

l re

sp

on

se

t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6

RDTDDT