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Crime Science
Marianne Junger
[Cla09] R. V. Clarke. Crime science. In E. McLaughlin and T. Newburn, editors, Handbook of Criminal Theory, pages 271-283. Sage, London, 2009. http://www.sagepub.com/books/Book228876
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Contents
Origins of crime Theories of Crime Science Situational Crime Prevention
Cyber-crime Science
Cyber-crime Science3
Origins of crime
Two essential and different factors
1. Person factors (criminality)
2. Situations (crime)
4
Person factors
Crime is ‘natural behaviour’
Everybody has the potential Some more than others…
How can we know? Indirect evidence:
– observe animals– observe babies
Cyber-crime Science
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Physical Aggression of Toddlers
Dutch Toddlers (17 months), in % Sometimes Often Sum
Take things 65,8 20,5 86,3
Pulls others 56,4 6 62,4
Pushes to get what he wants 45,3 10,3 55,6
Hits others 42,7 3,4 46,1
Start fights 24,8 1,7 26,5
Threatens others 22,2 3,4 25,6
Bites 14,5 3,4 17,9
Kicks 2,6 0 2,6
Sum 94
Cyber-crime Science
[Ake07] C. van Aken, M. Junger, M. Verhoeven, M. A. G. van Aken, and M. Dekovic. Externalizing behaviors and minor unintentional injuries in toddlers: Common risk factors? Journal of Pediatric Psychology, 32(2):230-244, Mar 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jpepsy/jsj118
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Malleability of behaviour is limited
Cyber-crime Science
[Hec06] J. J. Heckman. Skill formation and the economics of investing in disadvantaged children. Science, 312(5782):1900-1902, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/428598a
Theories of crime science
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[Cla09] R. V. Clarke. Crime science. In E. McLaughlin and T. Newburn, editors, Handbook of Criminal Theory, pages 271-283. Sage, London, 2009. http://www.sagepub.com/books/Book228876
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Crime science- summary
Incident oriented Purpose: understand the modus operandi of
crime Goal: prevention Basis: Rational choice, Opportunity theory &
Routine Activities Means: Situational crime prevention Practice: Measure effectiveness and
efficiency
Cyber-crime Science
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Theoretical foundation
Routine Activity Approach (RAT)» crime occurs when a potential offender meets with a
suitable target in the absence of a capable guardian.
Crime Pattern theory» crime is concentrated at particular places (hot spots),
targets the same victims repeatedly, (repeat victimisation), and selects hot products.
Rational choice perspective» criminals make a bounded rational choice judging
risks and benefits.
Cyber-crime Science
Cri
me
Opp
. E
very
day
life
S
ocie
ty
Cyber-crime Science12
Rational choice perspective
Criminality is goal oriented behaviour Based on a rational decision Crime specific Crime scripts In sociology, psychology, economy, biology,
public health etc
[Cor08] D. B. Cornish and R. V. Clarke. The rational choice perspective. In R. Wortley and L. Mazerolle, editors, Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis, pages 21-47. Willan Publishing, Uffculme, UK, 2008. http://www.willanpublishing.co.uk/cgi-bin/indexer?product=9781843922803
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RAT - Opportunity theory
Crime is the outcome of the interaction between dispositions and situations
Crime is the product of choice Crime specific focus essential for effective
prevention Crime is heavily concentrated Crime can be reduced by environmental
changes
Cyber-crime Science
[Fel98] M. Felson and R. V. Clarke. Opportunity makes the thief: Practical theory for crime prevention. Police Research Series Paper 98, Home Office, Policing and Reducing Crime Unit, London, 1998. http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/prgpdfs/fprs98.pdf
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Wealth paradox
Wealth presents opportunity» More to steal in houses» Less surveillance
More wealth hence more crime
[Coh79] L. E. Cohen and M. Felson. Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, 44(4):588-608, Aug 1979. http://www.jstor.org/pss/2094589
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Crime triangle
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Cyber-crime Science
Situational approach
Used in many disciplines/fields» Economy» Social psychology, e.g., marketing» Traffic » Public health
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Opportunity correlates
Cyber-crime Science
[Pea04] H. Pearson. Public health: The demon drink. Nature, 428:598-600, Apr 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/428598a
Situational crime prevention
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[Cla08] R. V. Clarke. Situational crime prevention. In R. Wortley and L. Mazerolle, editors, Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis, pages 178-194. Willan Publishing, London, Jun 2008. http://www.routledge.com/9781843922803
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Situational crime prevention
Based on the theories of Crime Science A standard methodology based on
experiments and action research. A set of opportunity-reducing techniques. A body of evaluated practice including
studies of displacement.
Cyber-crime Science
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Experiments and action Research
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1
2,3
4
5
1. collection of data about the nature of problem2. analysis of the situational conditions3. systematic study of means of blocking opportunities
4. implementation of the most promising means5. monitoring of results and dissemination of experience.
[Lay04] G. Laycock. The UK car theft index: An example of government leverage. In Understanding and Preventing Car Theft, Crime Prevention Studies 17, pages 25-44. Criminal Justice Press, Monsey, New York, 2004
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Opportunity reducing techniques
Increase effort» Time, skills
Increase risks» Of getting caught, failure, loosing resources
Reduce rewards» So that the offender has less benefits after the crime
Reduce provocation» So that the offender is less tempted to start
Remove excuses» So that the offender cannot justify the crime
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Practical examples
Cyber-crime Science
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Increase effort: alley gating
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[Bow04a] K. J. Bowers, S. D. Johnson, and A. F. G. Hirschfield. Closing off opportunities for crime: An evaluation of Alley-Gating. European J. on Criminal Policy and Research, 10(4):285-308, Sep 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10610-005-5502-0
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Increase risks: surveillance
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Reduce rewards: RFID tags
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Reduce provocations: Flyers
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Order Disorder: graffiti
1. Alley, flyer on bicycle 33% 69%
2. No trespassing 27% 82%
3. Supermarket 30% 58%
4. Littering/noise 52% 80%
5. Stealing Euro : graffiti, no litter on ground
13%
27%
6. Stealing Euro 5: no graffiti, litter on ground
25%
[Kei08] K. Keizer, S. Lindenberg, and L. Steg. The spreading of disorder. Science, 322(5908):1681-1685, Dec 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1161405
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Remove excuses: Eyes
Cyber-crime Science
Pounds paid perlitre of milk consumedas a function ofweek and image type.
[Bat06] M. Bateson, D. Nettle, and G. Roberts. Cues of being watched enhance cooperation in a real-world setting. Biology Letters, 2(3):412-414, Sep 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2006.0509
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Displacement?
Most important issue! Detoxification of gas in UK households
Cyber-crime Science
[Cla88b] R. V. Clarke and P. Mayhew. The British gas suicide story and its criminological implications. Crime and Justice, 10:79-116, 1988. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1147403
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Displacement?
Detoxification of gas in UK households
Cyber-crime Science
[Cla88b] R. V. Clarke and P. Mayhew. The British gas suicide story and its criminological implications. Crime and Justice, 10:79-116, 1988. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1147403
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
Year
Su
icid
e
All Methods
By Gas
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Diffusion of benefits
Diffusion of benefits: Examples
» Alley gating…» Tagging of expensive electronic products in shops
Meta-analysis*» 25% diffusion of benefits, » 50% nothing at all» 25% displacement – never complete
Cyber-crime Science
[Gue09] R. T. Guerette and K. J. Bowers. Assessing the extent of crime displacement and diffusion of benefits: a review of situational crime prevention evaluations. Criminology, 47(4):1331-1368, Nov 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2009.00177.x.
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Discussion
This was ‘normal’ crime…. See for a large collection of examples
http://www.popcenter.org/ What about cyber opportunities?
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Conclusions
Origins of crime: interaction “person by situation”
Importance of situations : wealth, alcohol Theories of crime science: RA, RCM,
opportunities» A standard methodology: experiments/policies.» A set of opportunity-reducing techniques: this helps!» A body of evaluated practice including studies of
displacement.
Cyber-crime Science