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CRedCarbon Reduction 1
Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) Н.К.Тови M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvEnergy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre
School of Environmental Sciences, UEA. Rotary Club of Norwich
District `1070 Assembly: May 9th 2009
The Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future: A Rotarians Guide - Hard Choices Ahead
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
CRedCarbon Reduction 2
Increasing Occurrence of Drought
CRedCarbon Reduction 3
Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood
CRedCarbon Reduction 4
19792003
Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region
• NASA satellite imagery
• في الجليد الصيفالشمالي القطب
المنطقة تغطيةالقطبيه
• الصور ناساالفضاءيه
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
•20% reduction in 24 years
في ٪ 20• سنوات 24تخفيض
المناختغير كاب القطبيه الجليديه على 2003 - 1979 اثار
4
CRedCarbon Reduction 5
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
potential contribution to Supply in 2020
costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (curently
35%)Available now (but is
now running out)
~2p + but recent trends put figure
much higher
UK becomes net importer of
gas in 2004
Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed
Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020
5
CRedCarbon Reduction
nuclear fission (long term)
0 - 30% (France 80%) - (currently 20% and falling)
new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed
2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"
Traditional Coal ~40%- coal could
supply 40 - 50% by 2020
Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration
2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS carbon trading will affect
this
6
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
potential contribution to Supply in 2020
costs in 2020
Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018.
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (curently
35%)Available now (but is now
running out)
~2p + but recent trends put figure
much higher
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Inst
all
ed C
ap
aci
ty (
MW
)
New Build ?
ProjectedActual
Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at
scale required until mid 2020s6
CRedCarbon Reduction 7
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
CRedCarbon Reduction 88
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on
average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and
Ipswich
CRedCarbon Reduction 9
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill,
Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
CRedCarbon Reduction 10
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly
15+ p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 400 sq km - But energy needed to make PV takes up
to 10 years to pay back in UK.
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
CRedCarbon Reduction 11
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas
50% + available, but research needed in some areas
2.5 - 4
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generatejust over 5% of UK
electricity needs.
Transport Fuels:
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?
• Compressed gas from methane from waste.
CRedCarbon Reduction 12
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas
2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream
100% + ultimately
techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
CRedCarbon Reduction 13
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas
2.5 - 4
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Wave/Tidal Stream
100% + ultimately
techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
CRedCarbon Reduction 14
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas
2.5 - 4
Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention
notcosted
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Output (MWh)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
01/0
1/20
02
15/0
1/20
02
29/0
1/20
02
12/0
2/20
02
26/0
2/20
02
12/0
3/20
02
26/0
3/20
02
09/0
4/20
02
23/0
4/20
02
07/0
5/20
02
21/0
5/20
02
04/0
6/20
02
18/0
6/20
02
02/0
7/20
02
16/0
7/20
02
30/0
7/20
02
13/0
8/20
02
27/0
8/20
02
10/0
9/20
02
24/0
9/20
02
08/1
0/20
02
22/1
0/20
02
05/1
1/2
002
19/1
1/2
002
03/1
2/20
02
17/1
2/20
02
31/1
2/20
02
Out
put
(MW
h pe
r da
y)
Output 78 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only
4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables southSave 40000 tonnes of CO2
Wave/Tidal Stream
100% + ultimately
techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
CRedCarbon Reduction 15
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas
2.5 - 4
Wave/TidalStream
100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020
4 - 8p
Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention
notcosted
Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
CRedCarbon Reduction
Actual Nuclear
Projected Nuclear
Actual Coal with FGD
Opted Out Coal
Renewables
New Nuclear?
New Coal ???
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
MW
• Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015
• New Nuclear assumes completing 1 nuclear station each year beyond 2018• New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018
There is a looming capacity
shortfall
Even with a full deployment of
renewables.
A 10% reduction in demand per
house will see a rise of 7% in total demand
- Increased population decreased
household size
Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security
CRedCarbon Reduction 17
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal? •then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
•unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
Our Choices: They are difficult
CRedCarbon Reduction 18
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
CRedCarbon Reduction 19
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake
than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
CRedCarbon Reduction 20
Raising Awareness
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.
• Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year.
• Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
上海徐汇区高第一小学
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya
CRedCarbon Reduction
21
The Behavioural Dimension
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
kWh
in p
erio
d
No of people in household
Electricity Consumption
1 person
2 people
3 people
4 people
5 people
6 people
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
1
% D
iffer
ence
from
Ave
rage
Variation in Electricity Cosumption1 person 2 people 3 people4 people 5 people 6 people
Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption
Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich
For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times.
When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times
CRedCarbon Reduction 22
Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004
Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs
CRedCarbon Reduction 23
House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar
Panels
- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!
It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?
House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February
CRedCarbon Reduction 24
Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic
Photovoltaic cells are still expensive, but integration of ideas is needed.
A church not connected to grid e.g. Fishley , with services only once a week PV would be a sensible option. BUT English Heritage???????
Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. Average house in
Norwich consumes ~ 3779 kWh per year, in Market Harborough, 5214 kWh per year
CRedCarbon Reduction 25
Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: The Heat Pump
Any low grade source of heat may be used• Coils buried in garden 1 – 1.5 m deep• Bore holes• Lakes/Rivers are ideal• Air can be used but is not as good
• Best performance if the temperature source between outside source and inside sink is as small as possible.
• Heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as electricity put in.
CRedCarbon Reduction
26
2626
26
Micro CHP
Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions
• Micro CHP plant for homes are being trialled.
• Replaces the normal boiler
• But there is a problem in summer as there is limited demand for heat – electrical generation will be limited.
• Backup generation is still needed in summer unless integrated with solar photovoltaic?
• In community schemes explore opportunity for multiple unit provision of hot water in summer, but only single unit in winter.
CRedCarbon Reduction
2727
6 kW Proven Turbine powering a Heat Pump providing heating for Parish Kirk, Westray
Horizontal Axis Mini Wind
CRedCarbon Reduction 2828
Involve the local Community• The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a
wind turbine.
• On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.
• Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward.
• Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.
CRedCarbon Reduction
• Which can spread the message• Engage with Schools• Dispel myths• Use simple messages that people understand often monetary
values mean more• Think about our own actions.
– Tumble drying – once a week amounts to £25 a year• Can we car share when going to District Council?
– Four people travelled separately from North Norfolk to District 1080 Assembly. They would have emitted and extra 75kg CO2 extra compared to travelling together at a cost of £30 extra in fuel.
• Energy Security issues will be just as important as Carbon reduction in the UK.
• Energy Security will increasingly affect us in next 10 years• Global warming will increasingly affect our fellow citizens of the
planet in the developing world in the next 10 years• Addressing Energy Security by taking small steps now will also
help with Global Warming• Otherwise the Young will suffer during their life times.• We in Rotary have the resources to work with the Young to
combat the challenges facing us.
Rotary is a Community
CRedCarbon Reduction 30
WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org
This presentation will be on WEB from this evening
>follow Academic Resources Link
• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room
And Finally
Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher 老子 ( 604-531BC )中国古代思想家、哲学家
“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.” (直译):“如果你不改变,你将止步于原地。”