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Creating and applying computational models of health behaviours
Philippe J. Giabbanelli, PhD
1PJ Giabbanelli Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
My primary interest is in modelling and analyzing human behaviours. I am a computational modeller and data scientist.
Research interests
Food behaviours InsurgenciesDrinking behavioursare today’s focus.
PJ Giabbanelli 2
Questions addressed
Why are computational models useful to tackle the complexity of health behaviours?
What models have been developed to structure the drivers of health behaviours?
How can models help us assess and design interventions?
Framing the topic
Creating models
Applying models
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
PJ Giabbanelli 3Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Framing the topic
Obesity is a complex problem.• loops
Many statistical models don’t cope well with loops (e.g., bayesian networks are acyclic)
PJ Giabbanelli 3Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Framing the topic
Obesity is a complex problem.• loops
• heterogeneity
VijayPhilippe
Compartmental models commonly used in epidemiology assume homogeneity.
PJ Giabbanelli 4Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Framing the topic
Obesity is a complex problem.• loops
• heterogeneity
• nonlinearity
change
nagging
PJ Giabbanelli 4Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Framing the topic
Obesity is a complex problem.• loops
• heterogeneity
• nonlinearity
• randomness
• dynamic
• uncertainty
Fear has a very
high impact on exercise.
I think it’s
more medium.
Important for many of my models.
PJ Giabbanelli 5Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Framing the topic
Obesity is a complex problem.• loops
• heterogeneity
• nonlinearity
• randomness
• dynamic
• uncertainty
Agent based modelingAgent Agent
PJ Giabbanelli 6
Modelling for?
Tell me what people will do in the future!
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
PJ Giabbanelli 7
Framing the topic
Epstein (JASS 11(4):12) gives 16 reasons other than prediction to build computational models.
Explaining
To simulate far into the future, you need to understand what you have now and how it changes.
2013 2023 2043
1 - Explain 2 - Predict
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
PJ Giabbanelli 8
Framing the topic
Epstein (JASS 11(4):12) gives 16 reasons other than prediction to build computational models.
Explaining
“Electrostatics explains lightning,
but we cannot predict when or where the next bolt will strike.”
A chaotic view of behavior change: a quantum leap for health promotionResnicow & Vaughan, IJBNPA 2006
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
PJ Giabbanelli 9
Framing the topic
Epstein (JASS 11(4):12) gives 16 reasons other than prediction to build computational models.
« What if »
Imagine that you want to intervene on the built environment. Would you try to change
it and see whether it was a good idea?
Using the computer, you create a virtual environment and see how virtual people react to
changes.
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
PJ Giabbanelli 10
Questions addressed
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Why are computational models useful to tackle the complexity of health behaviours?
What models have been developed to structure the drivers of health behaviours?
How can models help us assess and design interventions?
Framing the topic
Creating models
Applying models
PJ Giabbanelli 11
Creating models
“There is increasing evidence that social influence and social network structures are significant factors in obesity.”
Eating Exercising
R.A. Hammond, Current Opinion in Endocrinology, Diabetes and Obesity 17, 467 (2010)
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
PJ Giabbanelli 12
W. Rush, et al., Tech. rep NECSI 2003
Rule: take the state shared by the majority of your friends.
But I have only 2 friends!
Well, I have 14 friends…
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Creating models
PJ Giabbanelli 13
2003. Everyone has the same number of friends.
2009. Most people have few friends, few people have lots.
(cellular automaton) (complex networks)
D. Bahr, R. Browning, H. Wyatt, J. Hill, Exploiting social networks to mitigate the obesity epidemic, Obesity 17 (2009) 723-728
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Creating models
PJ Giabbanelli 14Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Creating models
Creating models
PJ Giabbanelli 15Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
ICO 2010. <9% acceptance for oral
presentations.
PJ Giabbanelli 16
This model looked at social and environmental influences on weight.
drinking
To model binge drinking, I was given individual-level data.
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
PJ Giabbanelli 17
Creating models
Process
You select peers with whom to drink…
…and then, their drinking habits influence yours.
Structure
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
PJ Giabbanelli 18
Creating models
Assuming a few hypotheses on how people select and are influenced by others, can we tell whether someone engages in binge drinking?
If we assume:
• that individuals select similar peers
• that individuals are prompted to drink if at least a fraction of their peers drink
• that one’s context known from drinking motives may deter/promote drinking
Then we can correctly infer the behaviour of half of the binge drinkers and 4 out of 5 non binge drinkers in the LISS dataset.
Published in the Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation.
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Creating models
PJ Giabbanelli 19
What about behavioural responses to price fluctuations?
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Creating models
PJ Giabbanelli 20
Junk tax
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Published in the American Journal of Public Health
p(FV)p(FF)
PJ Giabbanelli 21
Creating models
To go beyond, we need to better represent the context that shapes health behaviours.
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Creating models
PJ Giabbanelli 22
P-valuesOdds ratio
ANOVA
Besides, studies tend to speak on associations, not causations…
???
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
PJ Giabbanelli 23
Creating models
I turned to experts on obesity and asked them to evaluate the strength of these causations.
I built an expert system based on their feedback.
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
PJ Giabbanelli 24
+
Creating models
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Published in Applied Soft Computing
Technical contribution
PJ Giabbanelli 25
Creating models
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
PJ Giabbanelli 26
Initialization Matching Simulation
Philippe
Suman
Vijay
Bill
Chunyu
Creating models
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
PJ Giabbanelli 27
SimulationInitialization Matching
Influencing Influenced
Creating models
Philippe
Suman
Vijay
Bill
Chunyu
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
PJ Giabbanelli 28
Initialization Matching Simulation
Creating models
Philippe
Suman
Vijay
Bill
Chunyu
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Published in Studies in Computational Intelligence
PJ Giabbanelli 29
Creating models
Focusing on knowledge sharing…
Comparing food labels Cooking
healthy meals
…are you better off following your friends or random people?
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Creating models
←probability of passing on knowledge→
↑Intensity of obesity
↓
PJ Giabbanelli 30Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Published in Theories and Simulation of Complex Social Systems
PJ Giabbanelli 31
Questions addressed
Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Why are computational models useful to tackle the complexity of health behaviours?
What models have been developed to structure the drivers of health behaviours?
How can models help us assess and design interventions?
Framing the topic
Creating models
Applying models
www.spaplay.com
Applying models
PJ Giabbanelli 32Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Game activities
Recommender System
Practitioner’s office
Interacting with peers
Data about relevant psycho-social factors
Data about similar peers
provides
improves
Suggesting relevant questions
Suggesting similar peersincreases
increases
Conducting a targetted psycho-social assessment of patients queries
refines
Patients’ information
amel
iora
tes
providesCompleting surveys
contributes to
Self monitoring
Builds on an evidence base to offer
Improving health management
PJ Giabbanelli 33Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Published in Health Informatics
Applying models
PJ Giabbanelli 34Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Vijay
Bill
Philippe
Chunyu
Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are a powerful approach to conduct quantitative and comparative controlled experiments. A key characteristic
of RCTs is that participants are randomly assigned to a group.
Applying models
PJ Giabbanelli 35Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Rela
tions
hips
Perceived importance
Rela
tions
hips
Rela
tions
hips
Fuzzy Logic
Fuzzy Logic
answ
er
Aggregate value
of connection
Prog
nosti
c fa
ctor
s
Measured value
Initial value of patient
Inte
rven
tion
Applying models
PJ Giabbanelli 36Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
rctsoft.free.fr
PJ Giabbanelli 37Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Future directions
• The PHSA paper studied the relationships between obesity, weight bias, and mental well-being.
• There is a need to structure the evidence on both mental well-being and physical well-being as it relates to obesity.
• ≈ 65K funding to model well-being and obesity.
Name PositionGeoff Ball, PhD Professor, Department of Pediatrics, University of Alberta.
Director, Pediatric Centre for Weight and Health, Stollery Children’s Hospital.
Katherine Cianflone, PhD Canada Research Chair on Adipose Tissue, Tier 1 . Jean-Pierre Chanoine, PhD, MD Head of Pediatric Endocrinology, BC Children’s Hospital.
Clinical Professor, Division of Endocrinology, Department of Pediatrics, University of British Columbia.
Jean-Philippe Chaput, PhD Assistant Professor, Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa.Jean-Pierre Després, PhD International Chair on Cardiometabolic Risk. Professor, Faculty of Medicine, Université Laval.
Director of Research, Cardiology, Québec Heart and Lung Institute.
Jim Frankish, PhD Director, Centre for Population Health Promotion ResearchProfessor, College for Interdisciplinary Studies and School of Population & Public Health, University of British Columbia
Danijela Gašević, MD Research Associate, Royal Columbian Hospital.Carolyn Gotay, PhD Professor, University of British Columbia.
Canadian Cancer Society Chair in Cancer Primary Prevention, University of British Columbia.Affiliated Scientist, BC Cancer Agency.
Michael Hayes, PhD Professor, Department of Geography, University of Victoria.Director of Health Education and Research, University of Victoria.
Terry Huang, PhD Professor & Chair, Department of Health Promotion, Social and Behavioural Health, University of Nebraska.
David Lau, PhD, MD Director, Julian McFarlane Diabetes Research CentreChair, Diabetes & Endocrine Research Group.Professor, Departments of Medicine and Biochemistry & Molecular Biology, University of Calgary.
Scott Lear, PhD Professor, Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University.Chair in Cardiovascular Prevention Research, Pfizer/Heart & Stroke Foundation.
Gary Lewis, PhD, MD Director, Division of Endocrinology, University of Toronto.Director, Banting and Best Diabetes Research Centre, University of Toronto.Sun Life Financial Chair in Diabetes.Drucker Family Chair in Diabetes Research.
Pablo Monsivais, PhD Program Lead, Dietary Public Health Research, CEDAR, University of Cambridge.
Kim Raine, PhD Director, Research Program Promoting Optimal Weights through Ecological Research.Professor, Centre for Health Promotion Studies, University of Alberta.
Arya Sharma, PhD, MD Professor of Medicine, University of Alberta.Chair, Obesity Research and Management, University of Alberta.Founder and Scientific Director, Canadian Obesity Network.
John Spence, PhD Professor, Faculty of Physical Education and Recreation, University of Alberta.
Tom Warshawski, MD Chair, Childhood Obesity Foundation.James Woodcock, PhD Program Lead, Public Health Modelling, CEDAR, University of Cambridge.
Experts on:- Adipose tissue- Physical activity- Nutrition- Cardiovascular- Obesity management
PJ Giabbanelli 40Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Future directions
?
I have a long-standing collaboration with Dr Vijay Mago. We are working on 2 projects:
- Falls in the elderly (grant submitted)
- Social influence on binge drinking (about to collect data)
PJ Giabbanelli Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Future directions
As a new Investigator Scientist in Cambridge, I will work on:
- Modelling how individuals navigate the food environment
- Using visual analytics and big data to inform public health
41
PJ Giabbanelli Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
VA helps setting up the structure of the model by facilitating the identification of similar entities or missing connections.
VA keeps stakeholders engaged in the modelling process by providing an interactive outline of the domain.
42
PJ Giabbanelli Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Motivating question: to which extent is this model supported by interviewees?
43
PJ Giabbanelli Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
We measured the strength of a relationship between two factors as the number of responses in the interviews that used words relevant to both factors.
44
PJ Giabbanelli Creating & Applying Computational Models of Health Behaviours
Conclusion
Contact: [email protected] 5 publications related to this presentation:
1. Modeling the influence of social networks and environment on energy balance and obesity. Journal of Computational Science, 2012.
2. A fuzzy cognitive map of the psychosocial determinants of obesity. Applied Soft Computing, 2012.
3. Impact of different policies on unhealthy dietary behaviors in an urban adult population: an agent-based simulation model. American Journal of Population Health, 2014.
4. Supporting self-management of obesity using a novel game architecture. Health Informatics, 2014.
5. Modeling the joint effect of social determinants and peers on obesity among Canadian adults. In Theories and Simulations of Complex Social Systems, 2014.
45
Thanks to my colleague and friend Dr Vijay Mago for inviting me to Troy University