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Philippe AusselThe drivers of future mortality: an underwriter’s perspective
The drivers of future mortality
Over time: mortality improvements
Looking back: historical determinants
Peaking ahead: future drivers
Last but not least
Main literature reviewed
A. Case, C. Paxson, 2010. "Causes and consequences of early-life health," Demography, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages S65-S85, March. http://www.nber.org/papers/w15637.pdf
D. M.Cutler, A. Deaton and A. Lleras-Muney. "The Determinants Of Mortality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2006, v20 (3, Summer), 97-120. Available from: http://www.nber.org/papers/w11963
D. M. Cutler, E. L. Glaeser, A. B. Rosen, 2009. "Is the U.S. Population Behaving Healthier?," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Available from: http://www.nber.org/papers/w13013.pdf
S.S. Morse. “Factors in the emergence of infectious diseases”. Available from: http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/1/1/pdfs/95-0102.pdf
National Institutes of Health (US); Biological Sciences Curriculum Study. NIH Curriculum Supplement Series [Internet]. Bethesda (MD): National Institutes of Health (US); 2007-. Understanding Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases. Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK20370/
J. Olshansky, B.A. Carnes and A. Désesquelles. “Prospects for Human longevity”, Science, Vol 291, Issue 5508, 1491-1492, 23 February 2001. Available from: http://sjayolshansky.com/sjo/Manuscripts_files/Science2001.pdf
R.J. Pokorsky, MD, MBA. “Pricing implications of trends in population mortality and underwriting effectiveness”, J Insur Med 2004;36:54-59. Available from: http://aaimedicine.org/journal-of-insurance-medicine/jim/2004/036-01-0054.pdf
M.C. Purushotham. “Mortality improvements”, The Actuary Magazine, August/September 2011 – Volume 8 Issue 4. Available from: http://www.soa.org/library/newsletters/the-actuary-magazine/2011/august/act-2011-vol8-iss4-purushotham.pdf
J. Vaupel. “The advancing frontier of human survival” presented at the Living to 100 symposium of the SOA – January 8-10, 2014. Available from: https://www.soa.org/Library/Monographs/Life/Living-To-100/2014/mono-li14-1-soa-informal-discussant.pdf
Before we really start
• Impact on socio-demographic population needs.
• Macro-economic planning.
• Micro-economic challenges for insurance and pension institutions.
• Longer living viewed as positive trend and substantial social achievement.
Mortality
Longevity
Every day, there is news …
Mortality improvements over time
Mortality improvements over time
Age at death over time
Life expectancies over time
Causes of death over time
Leading causes of death
Age at death over time increased…
England & Waleshttp://www.princeton.edu/~deaton/downloads/cutler_deaton_lleras-muney_determinants_mortality_jep_2006.pdf
UShttp://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/as116/as116_V.html#wp999267
…and similarly Life expectancies increased, …
…as causes of death evolved.
Life expectancy over time
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1,000,000 BC10,000 BCRoman Empire1700's1820's1870‐1900'sTodayOldest ever
Maximum life span?
Looking back: historical determinants
Historical determinants
Nutrition
Public health
Urbanization
Socioeconomic factors
Behavioural and lifestyle changes
Nutrition
• Improved agricultural machinery.
• Improved farmland yields.
• Improved quantities and qualities of available food.
• Improved food handling and conservation.
• Resulted in improved overall health status.
Public health
• Overall improved sanitation and hygiene.
• Population-wide vaccinations and public health education.
• Antibiotics and antimicrobial treatments.
• Serologic testing.• Viral isolation and
tissue culture.• Molecular
techniques.http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm4829a1.htm#fig1
50% gain
Urbanization
• Initially, adverse effect on mortality and survival rates.
• Then, improved sanitary and housing conditions reduced waterborne diseases.
• Closer access to hospitals.
Socioeconomic factors
• Economic inequality in terms of level of education, income, wealth and social status have discriminating factors on life expectancy.
• Major focus of public policies to lessen gaps.
http://inequality.org/inequality‐health/http://www.decisionsonevidence.com/wp‐content/uploads/2012/11/Life‐Expectancy‐and‐Mean‐Years‐of‐Schooling.png
Behavioural and lifestyle changes
Smoking
Excessive alcohol
Driving safety
Disease prevention
Exercising
Worksite safety
Let’s pause … and reflect!
• Will the (linear) trend of mortality improvement continue and if so, at what rate?
• Is it feasible to eliminate all possible risk factors for an entire population?
• How will the new discoveries be implemented at a population-level, and how cost-effective will they be?
• Past medical breakthroughs haven’t been programmed or planned … they “just” happened! So, will the future be like the past, or just different as it has been?
• What does it take to push the current average life expectancy of 80-85 to the magical 100, or the maximum global life span from 122 years to 150?
Is it flattening?
Peaking ahead: future drivers
Peaking ahead: future drivers
Medical advances
Behavioural and lifestyle changes
Infectious diseases
What if …
Medical advances
• Improved prevention and surveillance?
• Improved diagnostic tools and algorithms?
• Improved intervention techniques, and reduction of the operation risk?
• Improved (bio)medical treatments based on genotype specific therapies, rejuvenation of human tissues, replacement of malfunctioning genes, nanoand quantum technologies, molecular genetics allowing genes to be repaired?
Behavioural and lifestyle changes
• Resolving socioeconomic inequality?
• Access to health care, health prevention and education? Will it be remotely performed?
• Continued prevention for smoking, obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, environmental and occupational diseases, drug and distracted driving, excessive alcohol use, processed foods, motivation to exercise, safety standards for avocations and occupations, prevention of suicide and other violent deaths (homicides).
• Increased compliance to medical recommendations and screenings.
Infectious diseases• 6 major types of infectious agents:
– Bacteria– Viruses– Fungi– Protozoa– Helminthes (parasites)– Prions (e.g. Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease)
• To survive, infectious agents need “reservoirs”.
• Recent infections included: – AIDS and HBC virus (untested blood)– Legionnaire disease (ventilation systems)– Hantavirus (rodent)– Lyme disease (reforestation)– Avian influenza
• Dormant pathogens can be activated at any time any where when there is a disturbance in their ecological environment (agricultural, economic, climate, population movements, human behaviors, etc.).
• Treatment resistance (malaria, tuberculosis), globalization, public health deficiencies are the new concerns.
http://trialx.com/curebyte/2011/08/27/clinical‐trials‐and‐images‐of‐emerging‐infectious‐diseases/
What if …
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Today Tomorrow
Life expectancy at birth … all 3 major causes of death would be
completely eliminated whereby, already today, many people are living longer (or dying less)
because of pacemakers, statins,
beta-blockers, tamoxifen, artificial
limbs, etc.
15‐year gain
Is there any room for future improvements left?
Projected mortality rates Ages 0-1 and 1-14
http://www.data.unicef.org/maternal‐health/maternal‐mortality
Infant m
ortality
Maternal mortality
Projected mortality rates Ages 15-54 and 55-64
Middle ages: Risk factors prevention
Young adults: Accidental deaths
Projected mortality rates Ages 65-74 and 75-84
Young seniors: Keeping active
Young retirees: Disease‐free living
Projected mortality rates Ages 85-89 and 90+
Seniors: Disability‐free living
Older seniors: Quality of life
Last, but not least!
Let’s pause again, and think more!
The Preston curve
Health care spending
Squaring of the mortality curve
Population pyramids
Economic recession and population health
The Preston curve
http://www.princeton.edu/~deaton/downloads/cutler_deaton_lleras‐muney_determinants_mortality_jep_2006.pdf
Health care spending vs. life expectancy
http://square.umin.ac.jp/massie‐tmd/druglagwarui.html
Squaring of the mortality curve
“Overall, probabilities of surviving to older ages have increased over the last century, and this trend is expected to continue in the future but at a slower pace”.
Age pyramids: today
http://populationpyramid.net
Age pyramids: tomorrow
http://populationpyramid.net
Effect of economic recession on population health
Stephen Bezruchka CMAJ 2009;181:281-285
• Mortality (except from suicide) is increasing in times of economic expansion, and decreasing in economic downturn in “richer countries” (it is the opposite in poorer countries).
• In richer countries, greater national wealth doesn’t lead to improved population welfare (“Affluenza” syndrome?).
• Multiple mechanisms are at play: increased leisure time, more time with friends and family, slower lifestyle, less work stress, less smoking and drinking …
• Some governments (UK) are shifting from just length of life, to improving quality of life.
The drivers of mortality …
… from yesterday to tomorrow! NutritionNutrition
Sanitation and vaccinationsSanitation and vaccinations
UrbanizationUrbanization
EducationEducation
Medical advancesMedical advances
Diseases preventionDiseases prevention
SmokingSmoking
Alcohol and drivingAlcohol and drivingWorksite safetyWorksite safety
ExercisingExercising
Obesity, Diabetes, drug resisting infectious
diseases, processed foods, globalization
Obesity, Diabetes, drug resisting infectious
diseases, processed foods, globalization
Quality of lifeQuality of life
Medical breakthroughs?Medical breakthroughs?
Health care funding?Health care funding?
UnknownsUnknowns
Will the trend continue?
If so, at what rate?Is it slowing down?Length of life or quality of life?What are the unknowns?
Today
Thank you!
Philippe AusselThe drivers of future mortality: an underwriter’s perspective