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DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION
Crackle Russia Business Plan
June 2013
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DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION
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DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION
Russian Market Overview
Source: Screen Digest and eMarketer
Russia has the Largest Online Population of any European Country
• Broadband households in Russia are expected to grow at a 8% CAGR from 18.7mm in 2012 to 25.4mm in 2016, representing approximately 22%-28% of total U.S. broadband households each year
• Mobile phone users in Russia are expected to grow at a 2% CAGR from 102.2mm in 2012 to 110.9mm in 2016 while mobile internet penetration is expected to increase from 24% in 2012 to 55% in 2016
[ New – Check ad spend with
previous page ]
Mobile Phone Users
(millions)
Broadband Households
(millions)
16.3
18.7
20.5
22.3 23.9
25.4
29.2%33.3%
36.2%
38.9%41.2%
43.4%
25.0%
35.0%
45.0%
55.0%
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Broadband Households Penetration
CY
99.9 102.2
104.4
106.6
108.8
110.9
16.6%
23.7%
31.9%
42.1%
48.8%
54.9%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mobile Phone Users Mobile Internet Penetration
CY
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Russian Market Overview (cont.)
Source: eMarketer (1) Tvigle monthly uniques include users from Tvigle.ru, partner sites and connected devices. Tvigle projects 31%-38% of uniques from Tvigle.ru in CY13-CY17.
Traditional television dominates ad spending budgets in Russia and is expected to account for half of Russia’s total ad spending over the next few years; however, online ad spending is the second largest platform
• Digital ad spending is expected to grow at a 16% CAGR from $1.7bn in 2012 to $3.1bn in 2016 as a result of advertisers’ growing familiarity with internet advertising and the potential for new advertising purchase paths such as real-time bidding
• Russia’s online ecosystem is dominated by Russian, homegrown, websites with an emphasis on social media (78% of internet users, or 58mm people, will access a social network at least once a month in 2013)
Top 10 Websites Among Internet Users in Russia Digital Ad Spending in Russia
($ in billions)
$1.3
$1.7
$2.1
$2.5
$2.8
$3.1
$--
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Monthly Uniques
(millions)
1 yandex.ru 50.9
2 mail.ru 50.9
3 vk.com 42.2
4 Google 39.3
5 odnoklassniki.ru 37.0
6 YouTube 31.7
7 wikipedia.org 23.5
8 facebook.com 21.6
9 ucoz.ru 18.7
10 avito.ru 17.7
ivi.ru 16.0
Tvigle(1) - Current 10.0
Tvigle(1) - CY16E 42.1
Crackle Russia - FY15E 4.1
Crackle Russia - FY19E 10.2
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Discussion of Content
• Piracy is currently one of the key market challenges in the online video space to both internet properties and content providers as only 5% of content is downloaded from legal sources in Russia
– Crackle addresses this problem through its focus on the free for user AVOD distribution model and its premium content
• There is strong evidence that piracy will decline significantly in the next 2-3 years
• Government policies and content holders are increasingly focused on reducing illegal content online (particularly due to Russia joining WTO in 2012)
– The Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights sets the minimum international standards of intellectual property rights recognition and protection and has been adopted as a result of Russia joining the WTO
– In the past, internet users were liable for the uploading of illegal content, however; recent laws have changed to make service providers liable for distributing illegal content in the Internet
• New measurements recently implemented to reduce online piracy include:
– Creating an open-to-public register of digital movies which will be fulfilled by content right owners on a voluntary basis and enabling information intermediaries to check the legal status of the content prior to their upload on web resources
– Obliging information intermediaries (internet providers, domain name owners, web-sites and social networks administrators) to track the content uploaded by users, to instantly block access to pirated content and prohibit its further distribution, and prohibiting indexation of the information about sites containing illegal content by search engines
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Competitive Landscape
Films
TV
Clips Full Length
• Opportunity to capitalize on limited premium AVOD content in online market as consumer appetite is rapidly building
• Hulu and Netflix are not offered in Russia, but representatives of Hulu and Netflix are understood to have held preliminary talks in 2012 about the possibility of entering the Russian market
• Ivi.ru raised $40M in 2012 to fight off the threat of Hulu, Netflix and YouTube
Ad Supported Video Services Top Competitors
• Ivi .ru is considered to be the “Hulu of Russia”
• Offers streamed premium TV and films from international and local big-name content holders
• In 2012, it raised a $40M round of funding expected to be used to build out the company’s technology as well as its content catalog
• More than 10M monthly uniques
• 98% of content is free, 2% is reserved for paid subscribers (ivi+)
• Streams TV episodes, webisodes and other videos
• Offers content from Disney, FOX, ABC, and BBC, amongst other networks
• 10M monthly uniques(1)
• Distribution model based on syndication of content through partner sites and related advertising revenue sharing arrangements
• 2012 gross revenue and gross profit of $10M and $2M, respectively
• Seeking a $20M investment to fund content acquisition, marketing and personnel expenses; also key shareholders selling 27% interest
(1) Tvigle monthly uniques include users from Tvigle.ru, partner sites and connected devices. Tvigle projects 31%-38% of uniques from Tvigle.ru in CY13-CY17.
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Russian Online Video Competitors Overview
Service Type AVOD AVOD (98%), SVOD, TVOD AVOD, SVOD
Monthly Uniques 4 mill ion (FY15) 16 mill ion 10 mill ion(1)
Content Type
Russian and
international movies and
TV shows
Russian and
international movies and
TV shows
Russian and
international TV shows
and clips
Content Providers TBD
Warner Brothers,
Paramount Pictures, Fox,
Sony Pictures, NBC
Universal, Disney, BBC,
National Geographic,
Mosfilm, Lenfilm, STV,
and others
Disney, FOX, ABC, BBC
All3Media, and others
Platforms TBD Web, Mobile, CTVs, STBs Web, Mobile, CTVs, STBs
(1) Tvigle monthly uniques include users from Tvigle.ru, partner sites and connected devices. Tvigle projects 31%-38% of uniques from Tvigle.ru in CY13-CY17.
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CPMs Bridge
• Net network CPMs of $7-$9 based on conversations with Sony’s ad sales team and information from Russian video service providers and ad networks. Premium net CPMs can reach $12
• The following tables provide a bridge from gross to net CPMs
• CPMs for Tvigle were $9 in 2012
• The following table provides Tvigle’s historical and projected bridge from gross to net CPMs
Russian CPMs
Sensitivity Range
Network Direct Sale
Rate Card $20 $25 $30 $35
Rate Card Discount - 40% (8) (10) (12) (14)
Discounted CPM $12 $15 $18 $21
Super (Agency) Commission - 25% (3) (4) (5) (5)
Discounted CPM after Agency Commission $9 $11 $14 $16
Sellers (Ad Network) Commission - 22% (2) (2) (3) (3)
Net CPM $7 $9 $11 $12
% of Rate Card 35% 35% 35% 35%
Crackle Russia Net CPM Assumptions $8 $14
Tvigle Investor Presentation
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Rate Card (RUR) 975 887 852 826 810 793
Exchange Rate 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Rate Card ($USD) $29 $27 $26 $25 $24 $24
Rate Card Discount & Super Commission - % 60.0% 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% 48.0% 45.0%
Rate Card Discount & Super Commission - $ ($18) ($16) ($14) ($12) ($12) ($11)
Discounted CPM after Agency Commission $12 $11 $12 $12 $13 $13
Sellers Commission - % 22.0% 23.0% 22.0% 20.0% 19.0% 17.0%
Sellers Commission - $ ($3) ($2) ($3) ($2) ($2) ($2)
Net CPM $9 $8 $9 $10 $10 $11
% of Rate Card 31% 31% 35% 40% 42% 46%
Crackle Russia Net CPM Assumptions - Direct Sale NA $12 $13
Crackle Russia Net CPM Assumptions - Network $8 $8 $8
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Operating Assumptions
DISTRIBUTION
• Launch in Russia in October 2014 on Web, Mobile, and CTV
• 4.1M uniques / month in FY15 growing to 10.2M uniques / month in FY19
• Uniques % by platform: 54%/26%/17% for Web/Mobile/CTV in FY15 shifting to 50%/28%/22% in FY19
• 2.4 streams / unique (average) in FY15 growing to 3.7 streams / unique in FY19 (average)
• $1.4 of revenue in FY15 (assumes mid-year launch) growing to $19.2M of revenue in FY19
AD SALES
• Direct ad sales headcount of 5 starting in FY16 and growing to 9 by FY17
• Revenue mix: FY15: 0% direct sales / 100% network, shifting to 50% direct sales / 50% network in FY19
• Direct Sales CPMs: FY15-FY19: $12 -$14 for Web/Mobile/CTV
• Network CPMs: FY15-FY19: $8 for Web/Mobile/CTV
• Streams monetized FY15-FY19: 70%-85% for CTV/Mobile/Web
• 2.8 monetized ads / stream in FY15 (average) growing to 3.9 monetized ads / stream in FY19 (average)
CONTENT / PROGRAMMING
• Content mix: Movies and TV
• 311 movie titles per month in FY15 growing to 450 in FY19
– Movie content licensed from third parties: 33% in FY15 growing to 59% in FY19
• 85 TV shows per month in FY15 growing to 108 TV shows in FY19
– TV content licensed from third parties: 26% in FY15 growing to 51% in FY19
OPERATIONS • Utilize Crackle’s Digital Platform Group for core platform and app development support
• Hire 12 new employees in FY15, an additional 5 employees in FY16 and an additional 4 employees in FY17
MARKETING • $1.6M of marketing support in FY15 (includes $300K launch marketing). FY15-FY19: $1.6M – $2.3M per year
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Uniques & Ad Projections ($ in thousands)
Crackle Russia Investment Plan
FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024
Monthly Uniques 4,087,824 5,535,331 7,189,274 8,982,352 10,171,889 10,994,322 11,858,938 12,836,905 13,947,964 15,225,063
Implied Devices to Uniques Conversion Rate 2.9% 3.5% 4.1% 4.7% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 5.1%
Streams per Unique 2.4x 2.8x 3.2x 3.5x 3.7x 3.8x 4.0x 4.3x 4.5x 4.7x
Monthly Streams 10,001,838 15,352,341 22,911,547 31,282,572 37,718,595 42,270,811 47,839,571 54,990,102 63,183,440 71,359,602
Ads per Stream 4.0x 4.0x 4.5x 4.5x 4.6x 4.7x 5.1x 5.6x 5.6x 5.7x
Monthly Ad Opportunities 40,259,348 61,340,247 103,475,519 141,575,822 174,679,548 198,168,317 242,452,144 307,245,915 356,657,493 407,013,579
Monetized Ad Opportunities - % 70.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0%
Monetized Ad Opportunities 28,181,544 52,139,210 87,954,191 120,339,448 148,477,616 168,443,069 206,084,323 261,159,028 303,158,869 345,961,542
Monetized Ads per Stream 2.8x 3.4x 3.8x 3.8x 3.9x 4.0x 4.3x 4.7x 4.8x 4.8x
Direct Sales Filled Ad Streams Opportunities - % 0.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0%
Direct Sales Filled Ad Opportunities -- 10,427,842 26,386,257 48,135,779 74,238,808 84,221,535 103,042,161 130,579,514 151,579,435 172,980,771
Network Filled Ad Streams Opportunities - % 100.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0%
Network Filled Ad Opportunities 28,181,544 41,711,368 61,567,934 72,203,669 74,238,808 84,221,535 103,042,161 130,579,514 151,579,435 172,980,771
Direct Sales Filled CPM NA $12 $13 $13 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14
Annual Direct Sales Filled Revenue $-- $1,502 $3,958 $7,509 $12,027 $14,149 $17,311 $21,937 $25,465 $29,061
Network Filled Net CPM $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8
Annual Network Filled Revenue $1,353 $4,004 $5,911 $6,932 $7,127 $8,085 $9,892 $12,536 $14,552 $16,606
Net Revenue $1,353 $5,506 $9,868 $14,441 $19,154 $22,234 $27,203 $34,473 $40,017 $45,667
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Financial Projections ($ in thousands)
(1) Cash flow assumes 2 month lag on inflow of cash and 1 month lag on outflow of cash. (2) Cash flow after Licensing Revenue to SPT.
Crackle Russia Investment Plan
FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024
Net Revenue $1,353 $5,506 $9,868 $14,441 $19,154 $22,234 $27,203 $34,473 $40,017 $45,667
% Growth NA 307.0% 79.2% 46.3% 32.6% 16.1% 22.3% 26.7% 16.1% 14.1%
Movie Programming Costs $644 $1,631 $2,091 $2,502 $2,945 $3,246 $3,678 $4,267 $4,936 $5,717
TV Programming Costs 169 373 430 502 615 736 871 1,025 1,201 1,273
Total Programming Costs $813 $2,004 $2,521 $3,005 $3,560 $3,982 $4,549 $5,292 $6,138 $6,990
Hosting / Bandwidth $226 $747 $1,220 $1,774 $2,283 $2,606 $3,056 $3,678 $4,412 $5,096
Ad Serving Fees 102 413 807 1,082 1,321 1,490 1,810 2,277 2,634 2,997
Traffic & Music Fees 34 138 247 361 479 556 680 862 1,000 1,142
Subtitles and Dubbing 122 138 151 167 174 168 166 165 164 164
Partners' Revenue Share 74 291 433 621 803 987 1,385 1,666 2,004 2,370
Other Cost of Sales $559 $1,727 $2,857 $4,005 $5,059 $5,808 $7,097 $8,648 $10,215 $11,770
Gross Profit ($19) $1,775 $4,490 $7,431 $10,535 $12,445 $15,558 $20,533 $23,664 $26,907
% of Revenue NM 32.2% 45.5% 51.5% 55.0% 56.0% 57.2% 59.6% 59.1% 58.9%
Marketing $1,612 $1,531 $1,922 $2,117 $2,253 $2,330 $2,385 $2,440 $2,497 $2,554
Headcount 1,188 2,500 3,226 3,323 3,422 3,525 3,631 3,740 3,852 3,968
Other G&A 289 242 302 309 317 324 332 340 349 358
Application Development 300 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Digital Platform Group Allocation 1,209 1,323 1,415 1,514 1,620 1,734 1,855 1,985 2,124 2,272
Total Overhead $4,598 $5,696 $6,965 $7,363 $7,712 $8,013 $8,303 $8,605 $8,922 $9,252
Crackle EBIT ($4,618) ($3,921) ($2,475) $68 $2,823 $4,432 $7,255 $11,927 $14,742 $17,656
% of Revenue NM NM NM 0.5% 14.7% 19.9% 26.7% 34.6% 36.8% 38.7%
SPT EBIT (add back SPE Content Costs) ($4,049) ($2,744) ($1,313) $1,200 $3,945 $5,423 $8,172 $12,849 $15,660 $18,579
SPT Cash Flow(1) ($4,346) ($4,325) ($2,959) ($525) $2,200 $4,041 $6,606 $10,932 $14,046 $16,942
SPT Cumulative Cash Flow ($4,346) ($8,671) ($11,630) ($12,155) ($9,954) ($5,913) $692 $11,625 $25,670 $42,612
SPE Cash Flow(1)(2) ($3,991) ($3,564) ($2,182) $235 $2,954 $4,709 $7,223 $11,551 $14,663 $17,564
SPE Cumulative Cash Flow ($3,991) ($7,555) ($9,737) ($9,503) ($6,549) ($1,840) $5,383 $16,934 $31,597 $49,160
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Risks & Mitigants
RISKS MITIGANTS
• Premium ad sales in Russia currently account for less than 10% of all ad sales
• Premium ad sales market grows slower than expected
• Hiring of an in-house ad sales team
• Potential for a Sony minimum guarantee
• Piracy continues at current rate and legal content remains only 5% of the total market
• Government policies and content holders are increasingly focused on reducing illegal content online (particularly due to Russia joining WTO in 2012)
• An increase in market share of legal content provides upside for Crackle
• Competitive market with established players
• The online video audience in Russia is expected to grow from 42M people in 2012 to 82M people in 2015
• Online advertising market expected to grow from $2.0bn in 2012 to $4.3bn in 2015
• In-stream advertising market expected to grow from $45M in 2012 to $270M in 2015
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Appendix
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Headcount ($ in thousands)
(1) Assumes 50% bonus for Ad Sales employees and 15% for all other employees. (2) Assumes fringe benefits of 27% on salaries and 4% on bonuses.
FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017
Title Start Date Location Salary Bonus (1) Total Salary Bonus (1) Total Salary Bonus (1) Total
1 GM - Business Owner Apr-14 [ ] $200 $30 $230 $206 $31 $237 $212 $32 $244
2 Tech PM May-14 Los Angeles 92 14 105 103 15 118 106 16 122
3 Marketing (Partner, Social, SEM/SEO) Jun-14 [ ] 67 10 77 82 12 95 85 13 98
4 Programming Manager Jun-14 [ ] 63 9 72 77 12 89 80 12 92
5 Video Ops Jun-14 Los Angeles 58 9 67 72 11 83 74 11 85
6 Producer Jun-14 Los Angeles 58 9 67 72 11 83 74 11 85
7 Art/Creative Jul-14 Los Angeles 60 9 69 82 12 95 85 13 98
8 Video Ops Jul-14 Los Angeles 53 8 60 72 11 83 74 11 85
9 QA Jul-14 Los Angeles 49 7 56 67 10 77 69 10 79
10 Metadata/Programming Coordinator Jul-14 [ ] 41 6 47 57 8 65 58 9 67
11 Ad Operations Aug-14 [ ] 47 7 54 72 11 83 74 11 85
12 Marketing (Partner, Social, SEM/SEO) Sep-14 Los Angeles 47 7 54 82 12 95 85 13 98
13 Ad Account Executive Apr-15 Russia -- -- -- 200 100 300 206 103 309
14 Ad Solutions Apr-15 Russia -- -- -- 100 50 150 103 52 155
15 Ad Solutions Apr-15 Russia -- -- -- 100 50 150 103 52 155
16 Ad Solutions Apr-15 Russia -- -- -- 100 50 150 103 52 155
17 Ad Sales Planner Apr-15 Russia -- -- -- 80 12 92 82 12 95
18 Ad Solutions Apr-16 Russia -- -- -- -- -- -- 100 50 150
19 Ad Solutions Apr-16 Russia -- -- -- -- -- -- 100 50 150
20 Ad Solutions Apr-16 Russia -- -- -- -- -- -- 100 50 150
21 Ad Sales Planner Apr-16 Russia -- -- -- -- -- -- 80 12 92
Total Before Fringe Benefits $833 $125 $958 $1,625 $419 $2,044 $2,054 $593 $2,648
Fringe Benefits (2) 225 5 230 439 17 456 555 24 578
Total After Fringe Benefits 1,058 130 1,188 2,064 436 2,500 2,609 617 3,226
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Cost Per Average Shows Per Month
Rating Episode (US$) FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019
A $39 7 7 7 8 10
B 15 25 25 27 27 27
C 8 10 10 10 11 15
D 4 10 10 15 19 23
Anime (B) 2 20 20 20 20 20
Bewitched 15 1 1 1 1 1
I Dream of Jeannie 7 1 1 1 1 1
Jackie Chan Adventures 7 1 1 1 1 1
Originals 15 10 10 10 10 10
Total TV Shows Per Month 85 85 92 98 108
% Sony 74% 74% 66% 58% 49%
% 3rd Party 26% 26% 34% 42% 51%
Title Cost Per Average Titles Per Month Episode Cost Per Average Episodes Per Month
Rating Month (US$) FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Rating Month (US$) FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019
AAA $2,100 14 17 20 20 20 A $39 175 175 175 200 250
AA 1,365 17 15 15 15 18 B 15 625 625 675 675 675
A 473 30 32 35 38 38 C 8 250 250 250 275 375
B 179 85 90 90 95 100 D 4 250 250 375 475 575
C 63 65 80 85 100 100 Anime (B) 2 600 600 600 600 600
D 32 40 50 60 65 68 Bewitched 15 200 200 200 200 200
DTV-A/New Titles 210 35 45 55 65 65 I Dream of Jeannie 7 100 100 100 100 100
DTV-B / TV-B Titles 105 15 17 19 21 23 Jackie Chan Adventures 7 85 85 85 85 85
DTV & TV LR/UNS Titles 11 10 12 14 16 18 Originals 15 200 200 200 200 200
Total Movies Per Month 311 358 393 435 450 Total TV Episodes Per Month 2,485 2,485 2,660 2,810 3,060
% Sony 67% 59% 51% 46% 41% % Sony 78% 78% 71% 64% 55%
% 3rd Party 33% 41% 49% 54% 59% % 3rd Party 22% 22% 29% 36% 45%
Annual Movie Programming Cost $644 $1,631 $2,091 $2,502 $2,945 Annual TV Programming Cost $169 $373 $430 $502 $615
Programming ($ in thousands, except rate card)
• Assumes 5%-10% rate card increase every year for
movies and TV
– Rate card for 3rd party content at a 50%
premium to Sony content
• Assumes approximately 65-75% of costs per year allocated to movies
• Total annual programming cost of $1.6M (annualized for full year) in FY15 growing to $3.6M in FY19
Note: Cost of movie titles and TV shows represent FY 2015 costs for Sony content
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Marketing (in thousands except for cost per unique)
(1) Assumes OTT promotions through partner marketing. (2) Represents the cost for organic uniques that exceed the target organic mix.
FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019
Uniques by Platform
Web Uniques (Monthly) 2,331 3,010 3,730 4,492 5,072
Mobile Uniques (Monthly) 1,052 1,507 2,055 2,630 2,894
CTV Uniques (Monthly) 705 1,018 1,404 1,860 2,206
Total Uniques (Monthly) 4,088 5,535 7,189 8,982 10,172
% Total Uniques Across All Platforms
Web Uniques (Monthly) 57% 54% 52% 50% 50%
Mobile Uniques (Monthly) 26% 27% 29% 29% 28%
CTV Uniques (Monthly) 17% 18% 20% 21% 22%
% Total Uniques Across All Platforms by Marketing Budget
Paid 43% 38% 35% 33% 32%
Retained 4% 5% 6% 8% 10%
CTV 26% 27% 29% 29% 28%
Organic 27% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Marketing Budget
Paid Uniques: $79 $83 $87 $91 $96
Web SEO 189 198 208 219 230
Web SEM $268 $281 $295 $310 $325
Mobile 342 490 668 856 941
CTV (1) -- -- -- -- --
Subtotal $610 $771 $964 $1,166 $1,267
Launch Marketing $300 $-- $-- $-- $--
Public Relations 50 100 105 110 116
Research 25 50 53 55 58
Social Media 13 25 26 28 29
Newsletter 10 20 21 22 23
Custom Advertising Solutions -- -- 100 110 121
Organic Shortfall(2) 604 565 654 627 640
Total Marketing Budget $1,612 $1,531 $1,922 $2,117 $2,253