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Figure 1GED Credentials Issued as a Percentage of Public and Private High School Graduates, USA

1960-2001

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

Per

cen

t

Note:

Source: (1) The Department of Education National Center for Education Statistics Digest of Educational Statistics, 2001, and (2) American Council on Education, General Educational

Development Testing Service Statistical Report 1989 and 2002

4

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Figure 2

The Fraction of High School Dropouts in the USA 1971 to 2000: Two Alternative Measures

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

100 - the fraction of graduates as a percent of 17-year-old population

High school dropouts excluding the GEDs - CPS data

Source:

(1) the Department of Education National Center for Education Statistics and (2) American Council on Education, General Educational Development Testing

Service

and (3) U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey, unpublished tabulations; and U.S. Department of Education, National

Center for Education Statistics, Dropout Rates in the United States.

5

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Figure 3

Share of GEDs Less Than 19 Years-Old Among All High School Credentials Issued, 1989-2001

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Year

Per

cen

t

Source: CCD data and GED Statistical Reports

6

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� ���� ��� ���(��� ��� ��� ������ � *� ��� *����� � ���

� ) � (����� �� ���� � (��� ��� ������� �� ����� ���(��� *� ���� �� ��3� !��������

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High School

DropoutsGED

High School

Graduates

GED vs. HS

Dropouts

GED vs. HS

Graduates

High School

DropoutsGED

High School

Graduates

GED vs. HS

Dropouts

GED vs. HS

Graduates

High School

DropoutsGED

High School

Graduates

GED vs. HS

Dropouts

GED vs. HS

GraduatesPanel A. Males

Number of Observation 246 166 818 229 183 511 176 109 241

Number of Siblings 3.80 3.47 3.07 0.12 0.04 5.27 4.92 5.10 0.30 0.50 5.51 4.31 4.47 0.00 0.71

(2.30) (2.21) (1.94) (3.12) (2.92) (2.98) (3.16) (2.52) (2.80)

Mother's Education 10.32 10.92 11.55 0.01 0.00 9.92 10.63 10.49 0.00 0.14 7.13 8.01 7.46 0.05 0.28

(2.25) (2.19) (2.00) (2.21) (2.46) (2.23) (3.77) (3.28) (4.03)

Father's Education 9.97 10.85 11.41 0.00 0.03 9.44 9.99 9.95 0.02 0.67 7.12 8.37 8.20 0.00 0.87

(3.11) (2.71) (2.59) (2.87) (2.88) (2.81) (3.55) (3.83) (4.27)

Broken Home 0.37 0.38 0.18 0.91 0.00 0.61 0.49 0.47 0.02 0.61 0.45 0.44 0.32 0.82 0.02

(0.48) (0.49) (0.38) (0.49) (0.50) (0.50) (0.50) (0.50) (0.47)

Family Income 35457 41041 49675 0.01 0.00 23252 26728 27327 0.07 0.39 23833 29482 34740 0.05 0.02

(19977) (23098) (26263) (16942) (19154) (18025) (17149) (24142) (25141)

Southern Residence 0.39 0.37 0.23 0.73 0.00 0.56 0.51 0.63 0.32 0.01 0.27 0.31 0.27 0.42 0.47

(0.49) (0.49) (0.42) (0.50) (0.50) (0.48) (0.44) (0.47) (0.45)

Urban Residence 0.71 0.75 0.69 0.31 0.11 0.77 0.87 0.81 0.01 0.08 0.93 0.92 0.86 0.79 0.15

(0.46) (0.43) (0.46) (0.42) (0.34) (0.39) (0.26) (0.28) (0.34)

Sample of Means of Family Background in 1979

Table 1A

Mean

Black Hispanic

Wilcoxon Test

White

Mean Wilcoxon Test Wilcoxon TestMean

Notes: The Sample includes people who are enrolled. Rather than dropping observations without information on parents' education and family income in 1979, which would results in a loss of almost a quarter of our sample, we decided to

impute values for the missing data. We ran an OLS regression of the not missing values on the following variables: dummy for southern residence at age 14, dummy for urban residence at age 14, dummy for broken home status at age 14,

number of siblings, and year of birth dummies. Finally, we used the estimates from the first step to compute predicted values for the missing data.

High school dropout, GED recipient, and high school graduate correspond to the latest educational status that the respondents provided in the survey.

Prob > |z| Prob > |z| Prob > |z|

8

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High School

DropoutsGED

High School

Graduates

GED vs. HS

Dropouts

GED vs. HS

Graduates

High School

DropoutsGED

High School

Graduates

GED vs. HS

Dropouts

GED vs. HS

Graduates

High School

DropoutsGED

High School

Graduates

GED vs. HS

Dropouts

GED vs. HS

GraduatesPanel B. Females

Number of Observation 154 169 836 173 113 453 146 80 243

Number of Siblings 3.97 3.60 3.24 0.23 0.16 6.03 5.45 5.09 0.16 0.37 5.67 4.64 4.38 0.02 0.28

(2.60) (2.50) (1.96) (3.58) (3.15) (2.98) (3.23) (2.85) (2.98)

Mother's Education 9.90 10.50 11.19 0.01 0.00 9.13 10.06 10.13 0.01 0.70 6.46 7.39 8.13 0.04 0.12

(2.41) (2.58) (1.90) (2.85) (2.49) (2.38) (3.37) (3.24) (3.69)

Father's Education 10.07 10.66 11.16 0.01 0.02 8.89 9.48 9.61 0.15 0.39 6.22 7.81 8.07 0.01 0.51

(2.71) (2.69) (2.58) (3.12) (2.67) (2.85) (3.87) (4.23) (3.99)

Broken Home 0.46 0.40 0.19 0.24 0.00 0.62 0.59 0.51 0.67 0.10 0.40 0.45 0.29 0.44 0.01

(0.50) (0.49) (0.39) (0.49) (0.49) (0.50) (0.49) (0.50) (0.46)

Family Income 34927 36406 47634 0.40 0.00 19874 19754 24231 0.60 0.03 24355 25526 32338 0.61 0.01

(20810) (19782) (25019) (18321) (13187) (19102) (17060) (17401) (21285)

Sourtern Dummy 0.38 0.36 0.27 0.68 0.02 0.60 0.60 0.64 0.91 0.42 0.25 0.24 0.27 0.88 0.55

(0.49) (0.48) (0.44) (0.49) (0.49) (0.48) (0.43) (0.43) (0.45)

Urban Dummy 0.75 0.73 0.73 0.60 0.96 0.80 0.86 0.76 0.19 0.03 0.95 0.84 0.89 0.01 0.19

(0.43) (0.45) (0.44) (0.40) (0.35) (0.43) (0.23) (0.37) (0.31)

Mean

Notes: The Sample includes people who are enrolled. Rather than dropping observations without information on parents' education and family income in 1979, which would results in a loss of almost a quarter of our sample, we decided to

impute values for the missing data. We ran an OLS regression of the not missing values on the following variables: dummy for southern residence at age 14, dummy for urban residence at age 14, dummy for broken home status at age 14,

number of siblings, and year of birth dummies. Finally, we used the estimates from the first step to compute predicted values for the missing data.

High school dropout, GED recipient, and high school graduate correspond to the latest educational status that the respondents provided in the survey.

Prob > |z| Prob > |z| Prob > |z|

Sample of Means of Family Background in 1979

Table 1B

Mean

Black Hispanic

Wilcoxon Test

White

Mean Wilcoxon Test Wilcoxon Test

9

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�!� "������� $���� �

� �� ��� ���� ��� ���(��� ��� ��� ������ �� ��3�!��������

� ���� ��� ���(��� ��� ���� ��� ������ � *� ����!� � ����

10

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High

School

Dropouts

GED

High

School

Graduates

Panel A. White

Percentage of Teen mother 58.82 52.78 17.40

Age First Married 19.68 19.20 21.71

(4.78) (4.04) (4.38)

Child Ever Born 2.20 2.27 1.82

(1.35) (1.32) (1.26)

Panel B. Black

Percentage of Teen mother 68.42 76.07 41.28

Age First Married 22.26 22.08 23.41

(5.93) (5.92) (4.98)

Child Ever Born 3.02 2.90 2.03

(1.97) (1.50) (1.30)

Panel C. Hispanic

Percentage of Teen mother 55.26 56.31 26.42

Age First Married 19.97 20.39 21.50

(4.79) (5.20) (4.19)

Child Ever Born 3.13 2.44 2.10

(1.75) (1.42) (1.32)

Table 2

Behavior Table, Females from NLSY79

Notes. Teen mother is defined as woman whose first child was born

when she was younger than twenty years old.

11

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3.3 Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Ability

• GEDs and H.S. graduates have similar measured cogni-tive ability.

• GEDs and dropouts have similar measured non-cogntiveability.

• Both cognitive and non-cognitive skills are important ineducational choices and behavior Heckman, Stixrud, andUrzua (2004)

12

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0.2

.4.6

.80

.2.4

.6.8

4 0 4 4 0 4 4 0 4

White Males Black Males Hispanic Males

White Females Black Females Hispanic Females

Dropouts GED HS

Den

sity

Score

Dropouts, GED holders and high school graduates without post secondary education. AFQT is a subset of 4 out of 10 ASVAB tests used by the military forenlistment screening and job assignment. It is the summed score from the word knowledge, paragraph comprehension, mathematics knowledge, and arithmetic reasoning ASVAB tests.

Figure 4Density of NLSY AFQT Scores by Race and Gender

13

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0.5

10

.51

4 0 4 4 0 4 4 0 4

White Males Black Males Hispanic Males

White Females Black Females Hispanic Females

Dropouts GED HS

Den

sity

Score

Education categories are dropouts, High School Graduates and GED holders without post secondary schooling.Test scores are the average over the Prose, Document, and Quantitative examinations administered to all NALS respondents. This is a measure of basic literacy and computational skills. They have been standardized to mean zero and variance one in the population.

Figure 5Density of NALS Test Scores by Race for the Native Born

14

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24.29

19.60

53.40

15.4418.11

44.36

22.08

15.69

48.05

020

40

60

Per

cen

tile

White Black Hispanic

GED Dropout HS GED Dropout HS GED Dropout HS

F4PNLWT, the NELS panel weight for 2000 data, is used to obtain a representative sample of the US populationbased on those individuals who were surveyed in 1988, 1990, 1992, 1994, and 2000. Scores are measured in1988, when respondents are in 8th grade.

Males, NELS 1988 2000

Figure 6: Noncognitive g Mean Scores by Education

15

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34.83

23.56

58.34

35.11

24.19

52.45

31.0528.80

52.59

020

40

60

Per

cen

tile

White Black Hispanic

GED Dropout HS GED Dropout HS GED Dropout HS

F4PNLWT, the NELS panel weight for 2000 data, is used to obtain a representative sample of the US populationbased on those individuals who were surveyed in 1988, 1990, 1992, 1994, and 2000. Scores are measured in1988, when respondents are in 8th grade.

Females, NELS 1988 2000

Figure 7: Noncognitive g Mean Scores by Education

16

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4 Estimated Direct Returns to the

GED

• Low direct economic returns to exam certification: Cameronand Heckman (1993).

• Large body of subsequent work confirms that GED recip-ients and high school graduates are not equivalent.Boesel,Alsalam, and Smith (1998)

• Question is now what benefits the GED program confersto participants.

17

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Advocates of the GED testing program raised some potentiallyvalid criticisms of the Cameron and Heckman analysis fol-lowing its publication (Murnane, Willett, and Boudett, 1999;Boudett, 2000; Jaeger and Clark, 2002).

1. First, their research only considered labor market out-comes at ages 25 and 28. If GED certification opensup access to occupations that are closed to high schooldropouts then the e ect of certification may not manifestitself until later in the life cycle.

2. A second concern was the small sample sizes available inthe NLSY data.

18

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������ ��(������ #�� �� 3����� 9��3: *�!�� �����!��� .��! *�+��� � +� �(�� �� �! � ��� � (����� �������� (�� ����! ����� �� ����� ����� 9#�� �� 1�!���! ���.��� ����(�:

19

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Four potentially serious problems and limitations plague thesedata.

1. The CPS contains no measure of ability. Cameron andHeckman found that the GED program is selective be-cause higher ability dropouts obtain GED certification.

2. As found by Hirsch and Schumacher (2004) in the contextof estimating union-nonunion wage di erentials, “matchbias” can result from the CPS method of imputing miss-ing wages. We find that the estimated returns to GEDcertification are substantially upward biased because GEDrespondents who either refuse or fail to report their wageinformation are frequently assigned (matched to) the wagesof traditional high school graduates.

20

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;� ������� *��� �� ����� ��� ��+ ��� �! ��� � ����.��� �������! � ��(�� ������!��

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) �� (�(�� ��������� � ��� ��� �� ��� (��*�� �� /� ��� � <

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$� /� ��� �� ������� �� (��.�������� ���� ��� +�!�!��+ ���*��*�� � � (��!�� � ) � �((���� ��.��� � ��� �������� ��� ����� �!� !���(� �� � ��+��� �� ��� � � !����� ���*������ �*���� *��� ��� �����*�� � ��� �� �� �� ��� � ����� ��� �� ������������

22

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&� ) � (������ +�!� ������ � ��� �������� ����� ������=���� ��3 ��� ����� ��� ���*������ �*���� *������ � (��(�� �������� �� ��� �����! +�!���

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% ��� ��� ����� & '��� ������(

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3� (�� ������ �� ������� ���� ��� �� ���� �!� $%.7; + � ����� �� �� ��� ���� �� ��! �� �� � �� (��� /� ��� ��� (�� �� ���(���" ��� ���(���� ��� �! � ��� !�������+ � ��� � (���� �� ����!� ����! +� � �� (�� �� �������� ��!��� ������ ��� + � +� ���� ���� ��� + � �(��� �! � ��� ������ �� ���� ��� ��� +�!� ��������"+� �-���� ��� (��(�� + � ��� �������� �� � ���> ��� ����.� (�����> ��(���� ��� � ���� �� ?���� � �����" ����"�� ���� �> �� �� ��� ������� ���� �� ����� �� � �����!���(����� � (����

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Figure 8CPS Monthly Outgoing Rotation Groups Percentage of Allocated Earners, 1979-2003

.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

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tage

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arn

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Note. - Calculations based on CPS Monthly Outgoing Rotation Groups from 1979-2003. The sample

is restricted to individuals between the ages of 16 and 65 who are members of the civilian labor force,

and are earnings eligible. Allocation flags are unavailable from 1994 to August of 1995. Allocations

from 1989 to 1993 are determined from those who have missing values for unedited weekly earnings

since Census provided allocation flags are unreliable.

27

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) � ��3 ,����������� �� �� �������� *� ���( ��� � ���(����� + � ���(���� ��� �� �� �� ����� ���� ���� ��� ����"���� 7%2 �� � +�!� ��� ��*�� ���� ����� ���� �� !���� *��� ������*�� ����.��(���� +�!�� �� �-�� ��� ��+. ���� ������$'2 ��� ���� ��� &%2 ��� �� �����

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5.2 CPS Imputation Strategy

“Hot deck” imputation method assigns the wages of respon-dents to non-respondents based on a limited set of demographic,education and occupational characteristics. Currently, the CPSmatches non-respondents to respondents in the monthly databased on the following categories: gender (2), race (2), age (6),occupation (13), hours worked (8), education (3), and tips andovertime receipt (2). A common practice among researchersis to treat allocated values as observed when using CPS sur-vey data. Angrist and Krueger (1999) claim that CPS wageallocation is empirically unimportant. This paper shows thatCPS allocation methods and the resulting match bias are offirst order economic importance.

31

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“Match bias”, (Hirsch and Schumacher, 2004), arises from thelimited number of categories used to impute non-respondentwages.The matching of wage non-respondents to wage respondents isbased on only three levels of educational attainment:

• high school dropouts,

• high school graduates with up to but not including aBachelors degree,

• a Bachelors degree and above.

32

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Estimated returns for those who graduate high school anddo not attend college tend to exhibit upward bias since non-respondents will frequently be matched to those who completesome college.

On the other hand, estimated returns for those who completeabove a Bachelors degree should be biased downward as a resultof non-respondents being assigned Bollinger and Hirsch (2005)and Hirsch and Schumacher (2004) present a more detaileddiscussion of the CPS hot deck procedure.

33

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Figure 9Density of NLSY AFQT Scores by Race and Gender

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Figure 10Average Years of Secondary Schooling for Dropouts and GEDs By Year of Birth

5

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1919 1921 1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1941 1943 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975

Year of Birth

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rs o

f Sc

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ling

All Dropouts White Dropouts Black DropoutsHispanic Dropouts GEDs

Note: The year-of-birth of GED recipients is imputed as the year that they obtained the GED minus 25 years.

Source: CPS March Data, 1968-2000; GED Statistical Report (various years)

50

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sity

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Education categories are dropouts, High School Graduates and GED holders without post secondary schooling.Test scores are the average over the Prose, Document, and Quantitative examinations administered to all NALS respondents. This is a measure of basic literacy and computational skills. They have been standardized to mean zero and variance one in the population.

Figure 11Density of NALS Test Scores by Race for the Native Born

53

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Figure 12Density of NALS Test Scores by Birth Cohort for the Native Born

55

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8 GED Returns Among Immigrants

Jaeger and Clark (2002) argue that the GED has an evengreater signaling e ect for immigrants than for the native born.

Their study does not control for either the cognitive di erencesbetween education groups or the amount of education GEDrecipients obtained in their home countries.

These vast di erences in basic skills among foreign born ed-ucational groups call into question the comparability of wagereturns between them, since the types of jobs available to themwill be very di erent as well.

61

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Figure 13Density of NALS Test Scores for the Foreign Born

62

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65

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9 Why GED Program Expanded

9.1 Demand for Schooling

• Returns to college education have increased since the late1970’s.Autor and Katz (1999)

• GED credentials satisfy buraucratic requirements for ad-mission at many post-secondary institutions.

• Essentially a lottery; the cost is low but the chance ofsuccess is also low.

66

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College/HS All College/HS 5 Years Exp GEDs Planning Further Study

Source. Wage differentials from Autor and Katz (1999), Figure 5-b. American Council on Education, GED Testing Service Statistical Reports.

Figure 14

College/HS Log Wage Differential and GED Test Takers Planning Further Study.

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

Year

Co

llege

/H

SL

og

Wag

eD

iffe

ren

tial

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Per

cen

tage

GE

Ds

Pla

nn

ing

Furt

her

Stu

dy

67

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Figure 15

GED Credentials by Reason for Obtaining Credential, 1960-2001

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Year

Num

ber

of

Cre

den

tial

s

Total GED Credentials Planning Further Study Not Planning Further Study

Source: American Council on Education, GED Testing Service Statistical Reports, various years.

68

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3!� "����� * ���

� ������� ��������� ��*������ �-(����� ��(���� �����! � (�� ;% ������

� ) � ���!�� !��+ +�� ���� �� ���� ���� �+�����

� ) ��� (��!�� � ���� � ������� �� ��� ��� ��������*����� � �! � ��� �������� �� ��,����� �� ����� �(����(���

� ��* ������! ��� � �� (��!�� � +� ��� ���������� � ���� !��� ���� �-(������

69

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Figure 16

Number of Recipients of Work-Study, SEOG, Pell Grant, and Perkins Loan, 1973-1999

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

4500000

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

Year

Num

ber

of

reci

pie

nts

Work Study SEOG Pell Grant Perkins Loan

Source: Status Report on the Pell Grant Program,2000; Federal Campus-Based Programs Data Book 1998 and 1999, 2000, 2001.

70

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Figure 17Ratio of Pell Grant, SEOG, Perkins Loan, and Work-Study Expenditures to the U.S. 18-24

Year-Old Population, 1973-1999

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Year

Rat

io

Pell Grant SEOG Perkins Loan Work-Study

Source: “2000 Status Report on the Pell Grant Program”, Federal Campus-Based Programs Data Book 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, U.S. Census Bureau

71

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Figure 18Number of Pell Grants and GED Credentials Issued, 1973-1999

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Year

Pel

l Gra

nts

an

d G

ED

Rec

ipie

nts

200,000

700,000

1,200,000

1,700,000

2,200,000

2,700,000

3,200,000

3,700,000

4,200,000

GED Credentials Pell Grants

Sources: “2000 Status Report on the Pell Grant Program” from the American Council on Education Center for Policy Analysis and the GED Statistical Reports

72

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Figure 19Total Number of GED Credentials Issued and the Number Produced by the Adult Basic

Education Program, 1972-1986(in thousands)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986

Year

Nu

mb

er(i

n t

hou

san

ds)

Total Adult Basic Ed

Source: Council on Adult Education(various years); GED Testing Service (1990)

73

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3!� * ������ � �����

� #������� (����� ��� (��!�� � ��� � ���� �� ������.�����

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74

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Figure 20Number of Inmates in State and Federal Prisons, 1940-1999

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998

Year

Nu

mb

er

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau. Based on U.S. Census Bureau estimated resident population, as of December 31. Includes all persons under

jurisdiction of federal and state authorities rather than those in the custody of such authorities. Represents inmates sentenced to maximum term of more than a year.

75

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State

Year coverage State prisons Federal prisons Total

1994 45.4 7.8 1.4 9.2

1995 57.8 7.7 1.2 8.9

1996 62.8 7.8 1.2 8.9

1997 58.0 9.4 1.4 10.8

1998 69.9 9.5 1.4 10.9

1999 69.4 9.2 1.5 10.7

2000 73.9 9.5 1.6 11.1

Table 12

GED Credentials Issued

Sources: Department of Corrections: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida,

Illinois, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and

Tennessee. State's GED Offices: Connecticut, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri,

New Hampshire, Oregon, Texas, South Carolina. Data for federal prison from

GED Testing Service "Who took the GED?" various years. See appendix for

data for each state considered inthe estimation.

Notes: State coverage represents the total number of GED credentials issued in

those states with information available as a percentage of total GED credentials

issued in the US. Total percentage of GED credentials issued in state prisons

represent credentials issued in correctional institutions of those states that have

prison information for a given year as a percentage of total GED credentials

issued in those states. The percentage of GED credentials issued in federal

prisons is calculated on total credentials issued in the US (including federal

prisons). Credentials issued in insular areas, freely associated states, Canada,

overseas locations and military bases are excluded.

of Total Credentials Issued

in Correctional Institutions as a Percentage

76

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Figure 21Number of Inmates in State and Federal Prisons per 100,000 US Population, 1940-1999

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998

Year

Nu

mb

er p

er 1

00,0

00

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau. Based on U.S. Census Bureau estimated resident population, as of December 31. Includes all persons under

jurisdiction of federal and state authorities rather than those in the custody of such authorities. Represents inmates sentenced to maximum term of more than a year.

77

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Figure 22Legal and Illegal Immigration into the United States, 1960-1999

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

1960-1969 1970-1974 1975-1980 1982-1987 1988-1993 1994-1999Years

Nu

mb

er o

f Im

mig

ran

ts

Illegal Immigration Legal Immigration

Source: Estimates of Illegal Aliens from Mexico Counted in the 1980 United States Census, “5 million Illegal Immigrants: An Analysis of New INS Numbers”, “Estimates of the Unauthorized

Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: 1990-2000”, 2001 Statistical Yearbook of the Immigration and Naturalization Service

78

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3!4 ������� ��� 5�& �

� ��! ����� ����! �� *� �������! �� � ������ �+����� ��3� � (����� �+���� � ��� (��!�� �

79

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Figure 23Percentage of GEDs Less Than 19 Years-Old to All Regular Diplomas in States That Do

and Do Not Require Passing an Exam for Graduation, 1990-2001

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Year

Per

cen

t

Exam Required No Exam RequiredSource: CCD data and GED Statistical Reports

Note: High stakes states are Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. Low stakes states are Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa,

Kansas, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,

South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming

80

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Figure 24Percentage of GEDs Less Than 19 Years-Old to All Regular Diplomas in Florida,

1989-2001

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Year

Per

cen

t

Source: CCD data and GED Statistical Reports

Florida adds second part to high school exit

exam

Florida toughens GED requirements for

1998, 1999, and 2000

81

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Figure 25Percentage of GEDs Less Than 19 Years-Old to All Regular Diplomas in Alabama,

1989-2001

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Year

Per

cen

t

Source: CCD data and GED Statistical Reports

New version of high school exit exam introduced

Reading and language subject tests introduced

82

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Figure 26Percentage of GEDs Less Than 19 Years-Old to All Regular Diplomas in Texas,

1989-2001

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Year

Per

cen

t

Source: CCD data and GED Statistical Reports

New version(TAAS) of high

school exit exam introduced

Texas toughens its GED score requirements.

From 1996 to 1997, the percentage who met the

score requirement fell by 11 percent

83

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Figure 17Percentage of GEDs Less Than 19 Years-Old to All Regular Diplomas in Nevada,

1991-2001

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

1991 1992 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Year

Per

cen

t

Source: CCD data and GED Statistical Reports

New version of high school exit exam introduced

Nevada toughens GED requirements

84

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Figure 28Percentage of GEDs Less Than 19 Years-Old to All Regular Diplomas in Indiana, 1989-

2001

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Year

Per

cen

t

Source: CCD data and GED Statistical Reports

*Indiana's first high school exit

exam introduced

*Indiana toughens GED

requirements

85

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�6 * �(#�� ���� 1��� ��

� '%2 �� ���� ������ �� � +� ���� �� ���� ���� ����!��

� ) ��� + � ������ ��� �! �� �*���� ��� ������� �� ���*��!������

86

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AFQT -0.397 0.105 0.328 0.455 1.007

(0.796) (0.780) (0.765) (0.692) (0.407)

Family Income 15,601.3 17,857.0 14,889.0 16,695.6 19,225.0

(9,397) (11,254) (10,380) (13,533) (9,846)

Father's Highest Grade Completed 10.338 10.229 10.857 12.875 12.818

(3.027) (3.404) (3.607) (2.588) (2.822)

Mother's Highest Grade Completed 10.562 10.140 11.154 11.200 12.167

(2.519) (2.286) (2.498) (2.821) (1.030)

AFQT -0.379 -0.287 0.255 0.038 0.799

(0.792) (0.642) (0.753) (0.628) (0.433)

Family Income 13,892.6 13,032.7 15,919.6 13,871.6 14,791.3

(8,474) (7,230) (10,862) (9,356) (13,611)

Father's Highest Grade Completed 9.761 10.772 11.100 11.071 12.000

(3.310) (2.872) (3.436) (4.009) (1.265)

Mother's Highest Grade Completed 9.987 10.797 11.207 10.750 11.375

(2.844) (2.211) (3.183) (3.975) (1.506)

A. Males

NLSY 79, Random Sample Males

Table A4(a). Background Characteristics of Postsecondary GED Recipients

Did not enroll Less than 1 yearMore than 1 year,

no degree2 year degree 4 year degree

B. Females

Notes: AFQT is age-adjusted and normalized to a mean of zero and a variance of one. Missing values are imputed for family income, father's

highest grade completed, and mother's highest grade completed.

87

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AFQT -0.051 0.408 0.562 0.653 1.219

(0.831) (0.740) (0.774) (0.748) (0.550)

Family Income 18,852.2 21,341.9 20,640.7 21,742.4 26,242.9

(10,510) (12,010) (12,142) (12,532) (16,117)

Father's Highest Grade Completed 10.811 11.971 12.401 12.702 14.193

(2.806) (2.973) (3.316) (3.164) (3.392)

Mother's Highest Grade Completed 10.986 11.767 11.989 12.084 13.231

(2.323) (2.459) (2.365) (2.154) (2.594)

AFQT -0.103 0.218 0.322 0.565 1.079

(0.759) (0.738) (0.778) (0.724) (0.580)

Family Income 18,365.6 18,869.2 18,685.8 19,854.6 25,373.0

(10,516) (11,249) (11,456) (12,105) (14,564)

Father's Highest Grade Completed 10.539 11.409 11.924 11.979 13.964

(2.863) (2.993) (3.239) (3.259) (3.450)

Mother's Highest Grade Completed 10.677 11.201 11.879 11.913 13.161

(2.307) (2.375) (2.530) (2.441) (2.491)

A. Males

B. Females

Notes: AFQT is age-adjusted and normalized to a mean of zero and a variance of one. Missing values are imputed for family income, father's

highest grade completed, and mother's highest grade completed.

NLSY 79, Random Sample Males

Did not enroll Less than 1 yearMore than 1 year,

no degree2 year degree 4 year degree

Table A4(b). Background Characteristics of Postsecondary High-School Graduates

88

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White Black Hispanic White Black Hispanic

Observations 625 223 51 29 243 51 28

Did not enroll 57.12 58.74 72.55 62.07 51.03 66.67 46.43

(49.53) (49.34) (45.07) (49.38) (50.09) (47.61) (50.79)

Enrolled 42.88 41.26 27.45 37.93 48.97 33.33 53.57

(49.53) (49.34) (45.07) (49.38) (50.09) (47.61) (50.79)

Less than 1 year 19.20 17.49 17.65 27.59 19.34 21.57 21.43

(39.42) (38.07) (38.50) (45.49) (39.58) (41.54) (41.79)

More than 1 year, no degree 16.00 14.80 7.84 6.90 20.16 7.84 28.57

(36.69) (35.59) (27.15) (25.79) (40.21) (27.15) (46.00)

2 year degree 4.48 3.59 1.96 3.45 6.17 3.92 3.57

(20.70) (18.64) (14.00) (18.57) (24.12) (19.60) (18.90)

4 year degree 3.20 5.38 0.00 0.00 3.29 0.00 0.00

(17.61) (22.62) (0.00) (0.00) (17.88)

Table A5(a). Final Postsecondary Outcomes of GED RecipientsNLSY 79, Random Sample

Males FemalesOverall

89

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White Black Hispanic White Black Hispanic

Observations 4704 1907 221 127 2020 286 143

Did not enroll 30.97 32.09 44.80 26.77 29.06 27.97 31.47

(46.24) (46.70) (49.84) (44.45) (45.41) (44.96) (46.60)

Enrolled 69.03 67.91 55.20 73.23 70.94 72.03 68.53

(46.24) (46.70) (49.84) (44.45) (45.41) (44.96) (46.60)

Less than 1 year 12.54 11.59 11.76 17.32 13.12 12.24 14.69

(33.12) (32.02) (32.29) (37.99) (33.77) (32.83) (35.52)

More than 1 year, no degree 17.11 15.52 18.55 28.35 15.69 30.77 18.88

(37.67) (36.22) (38.96) (45.25) (36.38) (46.23) (39.27)

2 year degree 9.03 7.45 6.79 4.72 10.20 12.24 14.69

(28.67) (26.26) (25.21) (21.30) (30.27) (32.83) (35.52)

4 year degree 30.34 33.35 18.10 22.83 31.93 16.78 20.28

(45.98) (47.16) (38.59) (42.14) (46.63) (37.44) (40.35)

Table A5(b). Final Postsecondary Outcomes of High-School GraduatesNLSY 79, Random Sample

OverallMales Females

90

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�������������������������������������!�����#����!���$���!��%����������%��&+���<���=���������{=��!�[�����X��������=���!���������=�������������!�������$$����{=�������$$����$$��%����XX����!�%��������������$����}��=�!�����!��������������������������������������

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Percentage

Bachelor’s DegreeAssociate’s Degree

CertificateStill Enrolled, No Degree

Not Enrolled, No Degree

Note: Total persistence and attainment rates include students who transferred out of the firstinstitution attended. Measured six years after the initial interview.Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1995−96 BeginningPostsecondary Students Longitudinal Study, Second Follow−up (BPS:96/01).

Figure 31 Final Post−Secondary Educational Attainment,by High School Completion Status

High School Diploma GED None

94

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�� 1��� � /����

� �� � ������ � ����!� ��� �������� ���� � ���E%8� � �(��� ����� �� �*�����! � ��� �� ������

� ���� ��! (���� ������" � '2 ������ ���" ��� �-.�!������� �(����� (��*�*������ � (���� ����� ��� ���� � ��� �(��� ����� ��� � ?�3B � �� �� FE'"7E;�� �������� ����� � ������!��

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1% $449,932 7% $48,293

2% $217,756 8% $39,835

3% $139,309 9% $33,348

4% $99,639 10% $28,251

5% $75,674 15% $13,945

6% $59,666 25% $4,849

These estimates are obtained from the phase one model with exogoneous choice

probabilities and absorption earnings computed from CPS March data. The

estimates are lifetime earnings of the individual discounted to age 15.

Table 14: Estimated GED Option Values For Varying Discount Rates

96

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