www.hertfordshire.gov.ukwww.hertfordshire.gov.uk

COVID-19 Situation Report

Summary

Jim McManus

Director of Public Health

Health and Wellbeing Board, 23rd June 2020

www.hertfordshire.gov.uk

• Some Highlights

– 2964 Casesto date. Rate of increase has slowed

– Daily “Assessment” Calls declined from 2,500 to around 200 a day

– 917 Deaths to date

– Between 0.2% and 07.% of pop symptomatic (8,400)

– 100,000 food parcels delivered, 10,000 medical parcels

How has COVID19 Impacted Herts?

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• Health warning – not the only indicator

The Rt Number

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Where are we? Pandemic Milestones

May June July Augus

t

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

2020 2021

22

Some restrictions

eased May into June 2020

1a1a

Peak of cases.

Deaths

Lag cases by 2-3

week

Late April 2020

First

Peak

1b1b

Second

Peak??Second peak of cases

sees restrictions

switched back on and

peak of cases and

deaths

Oct 2020

Immunity?

33

44

Recovery Focus

Efforts change to

focus on recovery

Q2 2021

VaccineVaccine starts population roll

out (earliest) with frontline

workers and clinically vulnerable

Q2 2021

Full

Recovery Full return to new Normal

Aug – Nov 2021

Apr

Phase 1 – First Two Peaks

Phase 2 - Control

Phase 3 - Exit

This is all provisional. The key drivers of these phases will be

levels of infection, recovery and immunity

Phase 4 - Recovery

Sep

44

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Resourcing

• Project Management

• Funding for work. Commissioning extra services

• Clinical Capacity

• Co-ordination of programmes (eg Public Mental Health, Behavioural Science)

Expertise

• Designing and supporting comms messages and campaigns

• Outbreak Management

• Expert Public Health Advice and Guidance

• Helplines and guidance on call

Intelligence

• Epidemiological surveillance

• Epidemiological Modelling

PH Contribution

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• Outbreak Plan

– Continuing support to reduce and manage impact

– Epidemiology and Surveillance

• Impact of COVID-19 on Populations

• Health Inequalities

• Service Delivery

Priorities going Forward

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Local Outbreak Plan Requirement

• We are required to develop a Local Outbreak Plan, create an elected Member-led Engagement Board and a DPH Led Outbreak Management (Health Protection) Board

• The aim of the Local Outbreak Plan is to protect the health of the population of Hertfordshire by:

• Prevention of the spread of Covid19 and associated disease

• Early identification and proactive management of local outbreaks

• Co-ordination of capabilities across agencies and stakeholders

• Assuring the public and stakeholders that this is being effectively delivered

• Government has set 7 Key themes (below)

• Government has granted £300m for this in 2020-21 of which Hertfordshire’s share is £4.5m

Care Homes & Schools

1 High Risk Places, Locations & Communities

2Local Testing Capacity

3 Contract Tracing in Complex Settings

4Data Integration

5Vulnerable People

6Local Boards

7

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1. Non Pharmacological Interventions (NPIs)

1) Hygiene

2) Cleaning and disinfection

3) Physical Distancing (staying too far apart for virus droplets to spread)

4) Disruption of viral transmission opportunities (eg PPE, barriers, rota and queue systems in workplaces and settings where people gather (eghospitals, gyms, public transport, shops)

5) Use of powers (quarantining people, closing premises)

2. Test, Isolate and Contact Trace

3. Case Finding (proactive and more intensive than Contact Tracing)

4. Vaccine (not yet available)

5. Antivirals (not yet available)

What works in stopping COVID-19?

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Hertfordshire’s Outbreak Control

Plan Themes• Our Outbreak Plan covers all the themes set by Government

• We also identify prevention as a key part of our work

• We will work across a range of partners to deliver this

1Prevent & Respond

2Testing and Contact

Tracing

3Surveillance,

Intelligence and Data

4Engagement &

Communication

5Governance &

Programme Co-Ordination

Care Homes & Schools

1 High Risk Places, Locations & Communities

2Local Testing Capacity

3 Contract Tracing in Complex Settings

4Data Integration

5Vulnerable People

6Local Boards

7

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Levels of Outbreak Incidents

• Level 1 - Outbreaks within existing outbreak management capacity even if multiple outbreaks – Covid Health Protection Board

– Recent COVID-19 Examples – School, GP, Workplace, Hospital, Care Homes,

• Level 2 – Outbreaks which exceed existing Outbreak Management capacity and need additional resource or capacity – SCG and Covid HP Board Together

• Level 3 - major peak of infection which requires full SCG response and is significantly beyond ability to respond – HP Board identifies actions and SCG Enables and Leads

• Level 4 – Second Wave

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Different but Overlapping ResponsesNational Test, Track and Trace – vs – Local Outbreak Plans

NHS Test, Track and Trace Local Outbreak Plans

• National Programme run from National down

to local

• Local Programme run by local areas with

regional and national data

• Tracks individuals and their contacts • Addresses outbreaks in communities

• Leads contact tracing for those testing

positive via call centres

• contact tracing only for complex cases

handed down from national/regional

• Only works on individuals • Works on situations, premises, localities and

populations

• System still being built and NOT fully

operational.

• Eight years experience of managing

outbreaks large and small. Protocols in place

• Commissions national testing capability to

test individuals at scale

• Deploys local testing capability to test and

manage outbreaks

• Outbreak plans need test and trace to work

fully and share data

• Test and Trace should alert local areas when

they identify potential or actual outbreaks

from their contact tracing

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• Psychological Impacts

• Physical Health Impacts

• Economic, Social, Employment Impacts

• Understanding and acting on impacts on our population using a social determinants approach

The Longer Term

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