-
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone:
505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic and Modeling
UpdateDecember 22, 2020
-
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone:
505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and
Response Division 12.22.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
8 cases per 100,000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
03/09/20 04/09/20 05/09/20 06/09/20 07/09/20 08/09/20 09/09/20
10/09/20 11/09/20 12/09/20
New Mexico COVID-19 Cases by Date of Specimen Collection
–December 22, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be
reported.
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone:
505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Statewide R-effective remains at 0.9.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – December 22,
2020.
0.9
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone:
505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Northeast R_effective 0.9 ↓
MetroR_effective 0.9 ↑
Southeast R_effective 0.8 ↓
SouthwestR_effective 0.9 ↑
NorthwestR_effective 1.0 ↑
Low Level Endemic 1.0
Key
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – December 22,
2020.
As of December 15, 2020
Region R-effective 95% Confidence Interval
State 0.9 [0.7, 1.1]
Metro 0.9 [0.6, 1.1]
Northeast 0.9 [0.5, 1.4]
Northwest 1.0 [0.6, 1.4]
Southeast 0.8 [0.5, 1.3]
Southwest 0.9 [0.5, 1.4]
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone:
505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
All five regions have growth rates less than 0.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – December 22,
2020.
↓ Decreasing case counts
↑ Increasing case counts
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone:
505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Epidemic Growth Acceleration
Assumes a 10 day lag in result reporting.Source: Infectious
Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division
12.22.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
-
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone:
505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and
Response Division 12.22.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
8 cases per 100,000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
03/09/20 04/09/20 05/09/20 06/09/20 07/09/20 08/09/20 09/09/20
10/09/20 11/09/20 12/09/20
Metro Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving
AverageDecember 22, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be
reported.
-
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone:
505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and
Response Division 12.22.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
8 cases per 100,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
03/09/20 04/09/20 05/09/20 06/09/20 07/09/20 08/09/20 09/09/20
10/09/20 11/09/20 12/09/20
Northeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving
AverageDecember 22, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be
reported.
-
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone:
505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and
Response Division 12.22.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
8 cases per 100,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
03/09/20 04/09/20 05/09/20 06/09/20 07/09/20 08/09/20 09/09/20
10/09/20 11/09/20 12/09/20
Northwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving
AverageDecember 22, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be
reported.
-
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone:
505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and
Response Division 12.22.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
8 cases per 100,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
03/09/20 04/09/20 05/09/20 06/09/20 07/09/20 08/09/20 09/09/20
10/09/20 11/09/20 12/09/20
Southeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving
AverageDecember 22, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be
reported.
-
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone:
505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and
Response Division 12.22.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
8 cases per 100,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
03/09/20 04/09/20 05/09/20 06/09/20 07/09/20 08/09/20 09/09/20
10/09/20 11/09/20 12/09/20
Southwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving
AverageDecember 22, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be
reported.
-
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone:
505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Average number (7-day rolling average) of cases,
hospitalizations, and deaths over time
Note: Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths may not yet be
reported in the last 7-14 days.
As of 12/21/20
-
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone:
505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New Mexico Status Updates
• Case count: Statewide, the daily case counts may be
decreasing, but this should be interpreted cautiously in the face
of high percent positivity.
• Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations remain high.
• Deaths: Weekly COVID-19 deaths remain high.
For more information, please visit the Epidemiology Reports page
on the NMDOH COVID-19 website:
https://cv.nmhealth.org/epidemiology-reports/
https://cv.nmhealth.org/epidemiology-reports/https://cv.nmhealth.org/epidemiology-reports/
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone:
505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Supplementary Slides
-
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone:
505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Modeling Assumptions
Variable Measured Value Value as of 12.22.2020
R_Effective Actual Measured Daily Value by key county
R_eff=0.9
Positive Test Multiplier Calculated by LANL 2.2
Hospitalization and Mortality Actual rolling value / estimated
number of total infected
Medical 0.39% ICU 0.15%Vent Rate 66% of ICUCrude Case Fatality
Rate 2.2%
Length of Stay Actual rolling value / estimated number of total
infected
Medical 5 daysICU 14 days ICU on Vent 14 days
COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic and Modeling Update�Slide
Number 2Statewide R-effective remains at 0.9.Slide Number 4All five
regions have growth rates less than 0.Epidemic Growth
AccelerationSlide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number
10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12New Mexico Status UpdatesSlide
Number 14Modeling Assumptions
