Cover: The Independence Hub semisubmersible is the world’s ... · 2003 Matterhorn TotalFinaElf MC 243 2,850 TLP 2003 Pardner Anadarko MC 401 1,139 Subsea 2003 Zia Devon MC 496 1,804

Cover: The Independence Hub semisubmersible is the world’s deepest production platform, located in 8,000 feet of water. It is designed to process up to one billion cubic feet of gas per day. Independence Hub began production in 2007. Photo courtesy of operator, Anadarko Petroleum Corporation. Other owners and subsea operators include: Devon Energy Corporation, ENI Petroleum Company, StatoilHydro USA E&P, Inc., Enterprise Products Partners L.P. and Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc.

MMS Report MMS 2009-012

Gulf of Mexico

Oil and Gas Production Forecast:

2009 – 2018

Asani Brewton Richie Baud Frank Yam Lee Almasy Thierry M. DeCort Michelle Uli Thomas Riches Jr. Eric G. Kazanis Angela G. Josey Roy Bongiovanni

U.S. Department of the Interior Minerals Management Service New Orleans Gulf of Mexico OCS Region May 2009

iii

Contents

Table of Abbreviations .......................................................................................... iv

Introduction............................................................................................................. 1

Forecast Method: Committed Scenario ................................................................. 2

Forecast Method: Full Potential Scenario............................................................ 10

Factors Affecting the Forecast .............................................................................. 12

Conclusions........................................................................................................... 14

Contributors .......................................................................................................... 20

References............................................................................................................. 21

Notice.................................................................................................................... 23

Figures

Water-depth and completion-depth divisions. ........................................................ 2

Gulf of Mexico Average Annual Oil Production.................................................. 17

Gulf of Mexico Average Annual Gas Production................................................. 19

Tables

Development Systems of Productive Deepwater GOM Projects ........................... 4

Gulf of Mexico Average Annual Oil Rates (Thousand Barrels/Day)................... 16

Gulf of Mexico Average Annual Gas Rates (Billion Cubic Feet/Day) ................ 18

iv

Table of Abbreviations BCFPD billion cubic feet per day

FPS Floating Production System

GOM Gulf of Mexico

MMBOE million barrels of oil equivalent

MMBOPD million barrels of oil per day

MMS Minerals Management Service

OCS Outer Continental Shelf

TVD true vertical depth

1

Introduction This report provides a daily oil and gas production rate forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

(GOM) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) for the years 2009 through 2018. The forecast

shows average daily oil and gas production estimates for each calendar year. In this

report, daily oil production rates include oil and condensate production, and daily gas

production rates include gas-well gas and associated gas production.

This report refers to various deepwater development “projects.” In most cases, the

project names and their lateral extents are defined by operators. Hydrocarbon

accumulations developed via a common surface facility or a common subsea system are

typically considered to be a single project. Note that the water depth of a subsea project,

or that of an undeveloped project, refers to the deepest water depth at a well location

within that project.

The classifications used throughout this report are illustrated in Figure 1. Projects in less

than 1,000 ft (305 m) water depths are considered to be shallow-water projects and those

in greater than 1,000 ft (305 m) are considered to be deepwater projects. For gas

production, the shallow water is further subdivided according to the true vertical depth

(TVD) of the producing zones and the water depth. The “shallow-water deep” zone

refers to gas production from well completions at or below 15,000 ft (4,572 m) TVD

subsea and in water depths less than 656 ft (200 meters). All other shallow-water

completions are referred to as part of the “shallow-water shallow” zone.

2

Figure 1. - Water-depth and completion-depth divisions.

Forecast Method: Committed Scenario The committed scenario includes projects that are currently producing and those that

operators have committed to producing in the near term. The 2008 production volumes

have been estimated by using the data available at the time of this publication. The

certainty of our forecast beyond 2008 is based, in part, on the accuracy of this 2008

estimate. Our committed scenario production estimates beyond 2008 are derived by

forecasting GOM production in two major components. These components include the

shallow-water trends and the deepwater projection (industry and MMS). Our method

does not explicitly forecast production that may result from the passage of the Gulf of

Mexico Energy Security Act of 2006, which among other things entails:

1.) a mandate calling for the Eastern Gulf Lease Sale 224 that includes a part of

the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Planning Area more than 125 miles off the Florida

coast and completely west of the Military Mission Line.

3

2.) the opening of 5.8 million acres of offshore Louisiana known as 181 South

Area, part of the Central Planning Area, for lease for the first time since 1988.

MMS Shallow-water Projection and Shallow-water Deep Gas Projection

The forecast of shallow water oil and gas production was developed using historical

production volumes dating back to 1983 for shallow water areas in the GOM. The 2004,

2005, 2006, and 2008 oil and gas volumes are anomalous (because of recovery from

hurricane activity) and, therefore, not used to develop the forecast. The results of our

analysis indicate a 13-percent effective annual decline for shallow-water oil and a 17.5-

percent effective annual decline for shallow-water gas. The shallow-water deep gas

production forecast incorporates a sustained production volume equal to the volume seen

in 2007 for the first three years of the forecast period followed by a 9 percent effective

annual decline for the remainder of the period to most closely simulate the historical

production trends and to account for the high level of drilling recently observed on

existing leases for deep gas. The method used to develop the shallow-water forecast and

shallow-water deep gas forecast differs slightly from previous years in that we include

only production from currently producing fields and existing discoveries. Production

from future discoveries on existing leases and from leases not yet awarded are now

accounted for in the undiscovered resources portion of the report.

Deepwater Projection - Industry and MMS

Deepwater GOM operators were surveyed in order to project near-term deepwater

activity. This method of surveying operators to forecast production was analyzed in our

2004 report (Melancon et al., 2004) and confirmed the ability of operators to project

future deepwater production accurately. Operators were asked to provide projected

production rates for all deepwater projects online or planned to come online before

yearend 2014. The names and startup years of the publicly releasable projects are shown

in Table 1. The deepwater oil and gas production estimates (based on the operator

survey) are assumed to have an effective annual decline rate of 12 percent each year (an

assumption based on historic deepwater decline rates) from 2014 through 2018.

4

Table 1 - Development Systems of Productive Deepwater GOM Projects

Year of First Production Project Name2 Operator Block

Water Depth

(ft) System Type 1979 Cognac Shell MC 194 1,023 Fixed Platform 1984 Lena ExxonMobil MC 280 1,000 Compliant Tower 1988 GC 291 Placid GC 29 1,540 Semisubmersible/Subsea

1988 GC 311 Placid GC 31 2,243 Subsea 1989 Bullwinkle Shell GC 65 1,353 Fixed Platform 1989 Jolliet ConocoPhillips GC 184 1,760 TLP 1991 Amberjack BP MC 109 1,100 Fixed Platform 1992 Alabaster ExxonMobil MC 485 1,438 Subsea 1993 Diamond1 Kerr McGee MC 445 2,095 Subsea 1993 Zinc ExxonMobil MC 354 1,478 Subsea 1994 Auger Shell GB 426 2,860 TLP 1994 Tahoe/SE Tahoe Shell VK 783 1,500 Subsea 1994 Pompano/ Pompano II BP VK 989 1,290 Fixed Platform/ Subsea 1995 Cooper1 Newfield GB 388 2,097 Semisubmersible

1995 Shasta1 ChevronTexaco GC 136 1,048 Subsea 1995 VK 862 Walter VK 862 1,043 Subsea 1996 Rocky1 Shell GC 110 1,785 Subsea 1996 Popeye Shell GC 116 2,000 Subsea 1996 Mars Shell MC 807 2,933 TLP/Subsea 1997 Troika BP GC 200 2,721 Subsea 1997 Mensa Shell MC 731 5,318 Subsea 1997 Neptune Kerr McGee VK 826 1,930 Spar/Subsea 1997 Ram-Powell Shell VK 956 3,216 TLP 1998 Oyster Marathon EW 917 1,195 Subsea 1998 Morpeth Eni EW 921 1,700 TLP/Subsea 1998 Arnold Marathon EW 963 1,800 Subsea 1998 Baldpate Amerada Hess GB 260 1,648 Compliant Tower 1999 EW 1006 Walter EW 1006 1,884 Subsea 1999 Penn State Amerada Hess GB 216 1,450 Subsea 1999 Dulcimer1 Mariner GB 367 1,120 Subsea 1999 Macaroni Shell GB 602 3,600 Subsea 1999 Angus Shell GC 113 2,045 Subsea 1999 Genesis ChevronTexaco GC 205 2,590 Spar 1999 Allegheny Eni GC 254 3,294 TLP 1999 Gemini ChevronTexaco MC 292 3,393 Subsea 1999 Pluto Mariner MC 674 2,828 Subsea 1999 Ursa Shell MC 809 3,800 TLP 1999 Virgo TotalFinaElf VK 823 1,130 Fixed Platform 2000 Allegheny South ENI GC 298 3,307 Subsea 2000 Hoover ExxonMobil AC 25 4,825 Spar

5

Table 1 - Development Systems of Productive Deepwater GOM Projects - continued


Water Depth

(ft) System Type 2000 Diana ExxonMobil EB 945 4,500 Subsea 2000 Black Widow Mariner EW 966 1,850 Subsea 2000 Northwestern Amerada Hess GB 200 1,736 Subsea 2000 Conger Amerada Hess GB 215 1,500 Subsea 2000 King Shell MC 764 3,250 Subsea 2000 Europa Shell MC 935 3,870 Subsea 2000 Petronius ChevronTexaco VK 786 1,753 Compliant Tower 2000 Marlin BP VK 915 3,236 TLP 2001 Pilsner Unocal EB 205 1,108 Subsea 2001 Marshall ExxonMobil EB 949 4,376 Subsea 2001 Prince El Paso EW 1003 1,500 TLP 2001 EW 878 Walter EW 878 1,585 Subsea 2001 Ladybug ATP GB 409 1,355 Subsea 2001 Serrano Shell GB 516 3,153 Subsea 2001 Oregano Shell GB 559 3,400 Subsea 2001 Brutus Shell GC 158 3,300 TLP

2001 Typhoon7 Helix GC 237 2,679 TLP 2001 Mica ExxonMobil MC 211 4,580 Subsea

2001 MC 681 Walter MC 68 1,360 Subsea 2001 Crosby Shell MC 899 4,400 Subsea 2001 Einset1 Shell VK 872 3,500 Subsea 2001 Nile BP VK 914 3,535 Subsea 2002 Madison ExxonMobil AC 24 4,856 Subsea 2002 King's Peak BP DC 133 6,845 Subsea 2002 Lost Ark Nobel EB 421 2,960 Subsea 2002 Nansen Kerr McGee EB 602 3,685 Spar

2002 North Boomvang4 Kerr McGee EB 643 3,650 Spar 2002 Navajo Kerr McGee EB 690 4,210 Subsea 2002 Tulane Amerada Hess GB 158 1,054 Subsea 2002 Manatee Shell GC 155 1,939 Subsea

2002 Sangria1 Hydro GOM GC 177 1,487 Subsea 2002 Aspen BP GC 243 3,065 Subsea 2002 King Kong Mariner GC 472 3,980 Subsea 2002 Yosemite Mariner GC 516 4,150 Subsea 2002 Horn Mountain BP MC 127 5,400 Spar 2002 Aconcagua TotalFinaElf MC 305 7,100 Subsea 2002 Camden Hills Marathon MC 348 7,216 Subsea 2002 Princess Shell MC 765 3,642 Subsea 2002 King9 BP MC 84 5,418 Subsea 2002 East Boomvang4 Kerr McGee EB 688 3,795 Subsea 2003 Falcon Marubeni EB 579 3,638 Subsea

6



Water Depth

(ft) System Type 2003 Tomahawk Marubeni EB 623 3,412 Subsea

2003 West Boomvang4 Kerr McGee EB 642 3,678 Subsea 2003 Habanero Shell GB 341 2,015 Subsea 2003 Durango5 Kerr McGee GB 667 3,105 Subsea 2003 Gunnison Kerr McGee GB 668 3,100 Spar 2003 Dawson5 Kerr McGee GB 669 3,152 Subsea 2003 Boris BHP Billiton GC 282 2,378 Subsea 2003 Matterhorn TotalFinaElf MC 243 2,850 TLP 2003 Pardner Anadarko MC 401 1,139 Subsea 2003 Zia Devon MC 496 1,804 Subsea 2003 Herschel/ Na Kika Shell MC 520 6,739 Semisubmersible/Subsea3 2003 Fourier/ Na Kika Shell MC 522 6,940 Semisubmersible/Subsea3 2003 North Medusa Murphy MC 538 2,223 Subsea 2003 Medusa Murphy MC 582 2,223 Spar 2003 East Ansley/Na Kika Shell MC 607 6,590 Semisubmersible/Subsea3 2004 Devil's Tower Eni MC 773 5,610 Spar 2004 South Diana ExxonMobil AC 65 4,852 Subsea 2004 Hack Wilson Kerr-McGee EB 599 3,650 Subsea 2004 Raptor Pioneer EB 668 3,710 Subsea 2004 Harrier1 Pioneer EB 759 4,114 Subsea 2004 Llano Shell GB 386 2,340 Subsea 2004 Magnolia Conocophilips GB 783 4,674 TLP 2004 Red Hawk Kerr-McGee GB 877 5,300 Spar 2004 GB 208 McMoran GB 208 1,275 Subsea 2004 Glider Shell GC 248 3,440 Subsea 2004 Front Runner Murphy GC 338 3,330 Spar 2004 Marco Polo Anadarko GC 608 4,300 TLP 2004 Holstein BP GC 645 4,340 Spar

2004 Kepler/Na Kika BP MC 383 5,759 Semisubmersible/Subsea3

2004 Ariel/Na Kika BP MC 429 6,240 Semisubmersible/Subsea3

2004 Coulomb/ Na Kika Shell MC 657 7,591 Semisubmersible/Subsea3 2004 Ochre Mariner MC 66 1,144 Subsea 2004 MC 837 Walter MC 837 1,524 Subsea 2005 GC 137 Nexen GC 137 1,168 Subsea 2005 Citrine LLOG GC 157 2,614 Subsea 2005 Baccarat W and T Offshore GC 178 1,404 Subsea 2005 K2 Anadarko GC 562 4,006 Subsea 2005 Mad Dog BP GC 782 4,420 Spar 2005 Triton/Goldfinger Eni MC 728 5,610 Subsea 2005 Killer Bee Walter MC 582 Subsea 2005 Swordfish Noble VK 962 4,677 Subsea

7



Water Depth

(ft) System Type 2006 SW Horseshoe Walter EB 430 2,285 Subsea 2006 Dawson Deep Kerr McGee GB 625 2,965 Subsea 2006 Lorien Noble GC 199 2,315 Subsea 2006 K2 North Anadarko GC 518 4,049 Subsea 2006 Constitution Kerr McGee GC 680 4,970 Spar 2006 Ticonderoga Kerr McGee GC 768 5,272 Subsea 2006 Rigel Eni MC 252 5,225 Subsea 2006 Gomez ATP MC 711 2,975 Semisubmersible 2006 Seventeen Hands Eni MC299 5,881 Subsea

2007 Vortex/Ind. Hub Anadarko AT 261 8,344 FPS/Subsea6

2007 Jubilee/Ind. Hub Anadarko AT 349 8,825 FPS/Subsea6

2007 Merganser/Ind. Hub Anadarko AT 37 8,015 FPS/Subsea6

2007 San Jacinto/Ind. Hub Eni DC 618 7,850 FPS/Subsea6

2007 Spiderman/Ind. Hub Anadarko DC 621 8,087 FPS/Subsea6 2007 Cottonwood Petrobras GB 244 2,130 Subsea

2007 Shenzi8 BHP Billiton GC 652 4,300 Subsea 2007 Atlantis BP GC 787 7,050 Semisubmersible

2007 Mondo NW/Ind. Hub Anadarko LL 1 8,340 FPS/Subsea6

2007 Cheyenne/Ind. Hub Anadarko LL 399 8,951 FPS/Subsea6

2007 Atlas-Atlas NW/Ind. Hub Anadarko LL 50 8,934 FPS/Subsea6 2007 Wrigley Newfield MC 506 3,911 Subsea 2007 Deimos Shell MC 806 3,106 Subsea

2007 Q/Ind. Hub Hydro MC 961 7,925 FPS/Subsea6 2007 Anduin ATP MC 755 2,904 Subsea 2007 Tiger Deep Gulf Energy GC 195 1,900 Subsea 2008 Neptune BHP Billiton AT 575 4,232 TLP 2008 MC 161 Walter MC 161 2,924 Subsea 2008 Raton Nobel MC 248 3,290 Subsea 2008 Blind Faith ChevronTexaco MC 696 6,989 Semisubmersible 2008 Valley Forge LLOG MC 707 1,538 Subsea 2008 Thunder Horse BP MC 778 6,037 Semisubmersible 2008 Bass Lite Mariner AT 426 6,634 Subsea 2009 Pegasus Eni GC 385 3,498 Subsea 2009 Mirage and Morgus ATP MC 941 4,000 Mini TLP 2009 Dorado BP VK 915 3,236 Subsea 2009 Unreleasable10 2009 GB 302 Walter GB 302 2,410 Subsea 2009 Tahiti ChevronTexaco GC 640 4,000 Spar 2009 Longhorn Eni MC 502 2,442 Subsea 2009 Isabela BP MC 562 6,500 Subsea

8



Water Depth

(ft) System Type 2009 Thunder Hawk Murphy MC 734 6,050 Semisubmersible 2009 Clipper ATP GC 299 3,452 2009 MC 72 LLOG MC 72 2,013 2009 MC 583 Walter MC 583 2,487 2009 Thunder Horse North BP MC 776 5,660 2009 Geauxpher Mariner GB 462 2,823 2009 Unreleasable10 2009 Unreleasable10 2009 Unreleasable10 2010 Telemark ATP AT 63 4,385 Mini TLP 2010 Great White Shell AC 857 8,000 Spar 2010 MC 241 Walter MC 241 2,415 2010 Caesar Tonga Anadarko GC 683 4,672 Subsea 2010 Silvertip Shell AC 815 9,226 Subsea 2010 Tobago Shell AC 859 9,627 Subsea 2010 Cascade Petrobras WR 206 8,143 FPSO/Subsea 2010 Chinook Petrobras WR 469 8,831 FPSO/Subsea 2010 Droshky Marathon GC 244 2,900 2010 Unreleasable10 2010 Unreleasable10 2011 Ozona Marathon GB 515 3,000 2012 Unreleasable10 2012 Unreleasable10 2013 Unreleasable10 2013 Unreleasable10 2013 Unreleasable10 2013 Unreleasable10 2013 Unreleasable10 2013 Unreleasable10 2013 Unreleasable10 2013 Unreleasable10 2013 Puma BP GC 823 4,129 2014 Unreleasable10 2016 Unreleasable10

1 Indicates projects that are no longer on production. 2 The previous edition of this report listed deepwater fields, whereas this version lists deepwater projects. 3 Na Kika FPS is located in Mississippi Canyon Block 474 in 6,340 ft (1,932 m) of water. 4 2004 Report referred to entire area as Boomvang 5 Included in 2004 Report with Gunnison 6 Independence Hub FPS will be located in Mississippi Canyon Block 920 in 7,920 ft (2,414 m) of water. 7Formerly known as Typhoon under ChevronTexaco operation, now named Phoenix under Helix operation.

9

8 Formerly known as Genghis Khan/Ind. Hub 9 Includes King South 10 Unreleasable – operator has commitment to produce and/or is planning develope project but has not publicly released project information.

AC = Alaminos Canyon AT = Atwater Valley DC = De Soto Canyon EB = East Breaks EW = Ewing Bank GB = Garden Banks GC = Green Canyon LL = Lloyd Ridge MC = Mississippi Canyon VK = Viosca Knoll WR = Walker Ridge

10

Forecast Method: Full Potential Scenario The Full Potential Scenario adds potential oil and gas production from industry-

announced deepwater discoveries and undiscovered resources in all water depths. This

part of the production forecast is more speculative than the committed scenario.

Industry-Announced Discoveries

Gulf of Mexico operators have announced numerous deepwater discoveries that were not

reported in the operator survey, possibly because these projects have not been fully

assessed and operators have not yet committed to development schedules. Many of these

industry-announced discoveries are likely to begin production within the next 10 years.

Some may even begin production within the next 5 years.

The industry-announced component is based on the following assumptions:

1.) Ultimate recoverable volumes from the industry-announced discoveries are

taken from independent, proprietary MMS assessments whenever available;

otherwise, the industry-announced volumes are used.

2.) During the first year of production, each project is assumed to produce at half

its peak rate.

3.) Projects with discovered resource volumes over 200 MMBOE are assumed to

reach peak production in their second year, sustain that peak rate for a total of

4 years, then decline at an effective annual 12 percent rate from that time

forward.

4.) The estimated peak production rate for each project is based on the estimated

recoverable reserves as follows:

Peak Rate = (0.00027455)*(ult rec rsvs) + 9000

where the peak rate is in barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day and the

ultimate recoverable reserves (ult rec rsvs) are in BOE. This relationship was

11

derived by plotting maximum production rates of known fields against the

ultimate recoverable reserves of those fields and performing a linear

regression. Note that MMS reserve estimates are on a field basis, so we

assume here that this relationship based on historic field trends can be applied

on a project basis.

5.) Projects announced as gas discoveries are assumed to be 100-percent gas.

Projects in the subsalt Miocene and Lower Tertiary plays are assumed to be

84-percent oil and 16-percent gas based on the average production capacities

of facilities slated to accommodate these projects. It should be noted that

percentage of oil for some of these plays reaches into the high 90-percent

range. The reserves of all other projects are assumed to be 61-percent oil and

39-percent gas, on the basis of an average of historic deepwater production.

6.) The year when each industry-announced discovery is expected to begin

production is estimated by using available information.

7.) All industry-announced discoveries with resource estimates greater than

20 MMBOE are assumed to begin production within the next 10 years.

Undiscovered Resources

This section of the forecast represents oil and gas production volumes that exist in yet-to-

be discovered fields that are anticipated to commence production during the forecast

period. These resources exist primarily on GOM acreage that is expected to be leased in

future Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease sales. The production volumes forecast from

these yet-to-be discovered fields is derived from: GOM tracts scheduled to be leased

during the remaining lease sales in the 2007-2012 Five-Year Oil and Gas Leasing

Program, future GOM lease sales that are projected to be held between 2012-2018, and

future discoveries that will be made on existing leases. The production volumes forecast

from the undiscovered fields do not include areas in the GOM currently under moratoria.

The forecast methodology assumes that the volumes of oil and gas produced from

acreage leased during the forecast period will be within the range of historically

12

discovered reserve volumes for each sale and will exhibit similar production profiles.

Previously discovered volumes and production profiles from each individual lease sale

held between 1983 and 2008 are used to develop production profiles for both oil and gas

that are representative of a characteristic sale for each Planning Area. These profiles are

developed by aggregating lease-sale specific historical production volumes on an annual

basis, setting each sale date to time-zero, and calculating an average production volume

for each time period. An average annual GOM production profile is then calculated

using the oil and gas production profiles for each Planning Area. The 10-year forecast of

undiscovered production is developed using the annual GOM production profile in a time

series and shifting each profile one year forward from the previous profile such that time-

zero for each of the ten profiles corresponds to each year of the forecast period. The

production volumes are then aggregated on an annual basis to determine the total volume

by forecast year.

The model used is constrained by:

1.) Observed range of historical production volumes resulting from acreage

leased in all previously held GOM Lease Sales.

2.) Reported volumes of oil and gas that are anticipated to be leased, developed,

and produced as a result of a single sale in each Planning Area.

The reported volumes are those published in the “Proposed Final Program Outer

Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program 2007 - 2012” which are based, in part, on

data from MMS’ 2006 “Assessment of Undiscovered Technically Recoverable Oil and

Gas Resources of the Nation’s Outer Continental Shelf.”

Factors Affecting the Forecast The Gulf of Mexico Oil and Gas Production Forecast provides the public with our view

of what the production from the Gulf of Mexico will be over the next ten years.

However, at any time there are a number of factors which may alter the forecast or

contribute to whether the projects listed in Table 1 are able to begin production on

schedule.

13

Technology Challenges

Much of the new development within the Gulf of Mexico is in water depths greater than

1000 ft and often targeting prospects beneath salt. There are a limited number of rigs

capable of drilling at these depths and under these conditions. Demand for rig time has

outstripped the supply, causing delays. Fluctuation in oil prices, equipment failures, rises

in the costs of equipment and materials, as well as a shortage of skilled labor are also

common obstacles to current and future oil and gas production within the Gulf of

Mexico. Additionally, drilling conditions vary greatly over the Gulf. For example,

projects grappling with drilling in high-pressure zones face different technological

challenges than projects drilling in ultra-deepwater. Addressing these challenges requires

that companies stay on the cutting edge of drilling and production technology, increasing

the risk involved in these ventures.

Hurricanes

An uncontrollable factor in the forecast is hurricanes. Hurricanes cause short-term delays

by forcing the removal of personnel from offshore sites before and during the storms,

leaving most production facilities shut-in during these times. Hurricanes may lead to

damage at production facilities or to the thousands of miles of pipeline used to transport

the hydrocarbons to land. Repairs for this type of damage take time and may lead to

delays regarding upcoming projects or result in temporarily lowered production volumes

for currently producing projects. While hurricanes are not an uncommon occurrence in

the Gulf of Mexico the majority of them do not impact long-term production

significantly. This is because most hurricanes cause relatively minor damage to

infrastructure and production can be restored quickly. It is only those hurricanes that

cause severe infrastructure damage within the Gulf, such as Ivan in 2004, Katrina and

Rita in 2005, and Gustav and Ike in 2008, that cause anomalous decreases in the overall

yearly production rates. These decreases do not reflect the overall trends seen within the

Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production and thus data from these years is not used in the

projections.

14

Conclusions Historic oil production in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) increased steadily from 1993

through 2002, leveled off in 2003, and declined in 2004 and 2005. The sharp decline

seen was caused in large part by Hurricane Ivan in 2004 and hurricanes Katrina and Rita

in 2005. During 2006 and 2007 oil production remained steady, but had not reached pre-

hurricane Katrina production volumes. The 2008 oil production volumes again show a

sharp decline, due in large part to damage from hurricanes Gustav and Ike. Shallow-

water oil production declined steadily since 1997, but was offset by increasing deepwater

oil production during most of that period. Historic gas production in the GOM followed

similar trends. While shallow-water deep-gas production generally increased during the

period 1993 through 2002, the shallow-water gas production dropped steadily from 1996

though 2008. Although deepwater gas production increased during much of that period,

it was not sufficient to prevent an overall decline in total GOM gas production through

2008.

The anticipated increase in production for the year 2009 reflects not only production from

the many projects slated to come online in this year, but also the addition of volumes that

were shut-in during 2008 as a result of hurricane activity. For the oil, 75-percent of the

increase in production is a reflection of shut-in volumes coming back online in early

2009. Seventy-two-percent of the increase of gas production results from shut-in

volumes coming back online.

Within the next 10 years, total GOM oil production is expected to exceed 1.6 million

barrels of oil per day (MMBOPD) based on existing shallow and deepwater operator

commitments as shown in Table 2 and Figure 2. If industry-announced discoveries and

undiscovered resources realize their full potential, production could reach 1.9 MMBOPD.

Once a peak is reached, oil production may level off or begin to show a slight decline

depending on whether industry-announced discoveries and undiscovered resources are

maximized.

Based on existing shallow and deepwater operator commitments, GOM gas production is

expected to reach about 7 billion cubic ft per day (BCFPD) as shown in Table 3 and

15

Figure 3. In the committed scenario, a decline in production is seen beyond 2009.

However, if contributions from industry-announced discoveries and undiscovered

resources reach their full potential, the GOM gas production decline could level off or

show a small reversal within the forecast period. Realization of this full potential

scenario will depend on operator commitments to develop these resources within the next

10 years. The small contribution to gas production from industry-announced discoveries

reflects the overall trend of lower gas-oil-ratios anticipated in the subsalt Miocene and

Lower Tertiary plays, found in deepwater Gulf of Mexico.

Each component described in this report adds potential GOM production to the forecast

and the uncertainty increases with each subsequent component. The data from each

component used in this report are presented in Tables 2 and 3 so that the reader may

decide the degree of certainty that he or she deems appropriate. Whatever degree of

certainty used, one can conclude that GOM oil production is expected to increase within

the forecast period and GOM gas production is expected to remain below rates seen in

the 1990’s.

Table 2. - Gulf of Mexico Average Annual Oil Rates (Thousand Barrels/Day)

Year Shallow-water

MMS Shallow-water Projection Deepwater

Industry Deepwater Projection

MMS Deepwater Projection

Committed Scenario-Total GOM



Full Potential Scenario- Total GOM

1993 745 101 845 1994 746 115 860 1995 792 151 943 1996 813 198 1010 1997 830 296 1126 1998 781 436 1217 1999 738 615 1353 2000 690 743 1433 2001 667 864 1531 2002 601 955 1556 2003 577 957 1534 2004^ 513 953 1466 2005^ 387 892 1279 2006^ 357 929 1286 2007 381 895 1276 2008^ 313* 829* 1142* 2009 288 925 1213 0 2 1215 2010 251 1140 1391 7 7 1405 2011 218 1417 1635 13 18 1667 2012 190 1418 1608 94 33 1735 2013 165 1393 1558 241 80 1879 2014 144 1226 1369 341 138 1849 2015 125 1079 1204 425 205 1833 2016 109 949 1058 463 288 1809 2017 95 835 930 431 399 1760 2018 82 735 817 410 508 1735

^Indicates years with known anomalous data due to hurricane affected shut-in *Estimate

16

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Year

Undiscovered ResourcesIndustry Announced DiscoveriesMMS Deepwater ProjectionIndustry Deepwater ProjectionDeepwater (historical)MMS Shallow-water ProjectionShallow-water (historical)

Thou

sand

Bar

rels

/Day

Committed Scenario

Full Potential Scenario

Indicates years with known anomalous data due to hurricane affected shut-in

Figure 2. - Gulf of Mexico Average Annual Oil Production.

17

Table 3. - Gulf of Mexico Average Annual Gas Rates (Billion Cubic Feet/Day)

Year

Shallow-water Shallow

MMS Shallow-water Shallow Projection

Shallow-water Deep

MMS Shallow-water Deep Projection Deepwater

Industry Deepwater Projection

MMS Deepwater Projection

Committed Scenario-Total GOM



Full Potential Scenario- Total GOM

1993 11.89 0.51 0.33 12.73 1994 12.20 0.60 0.44 13.24 1995 11.79 0.81 0.49 13.09 1996 12.17 0.93 0.76 13.86 1997 11.87 1.23 1.05 14.15 1998 11.11 1.19 1.54 13.84 1999 10.44 1.06 2.31 13.81 2000 9.84 0.96 2.74 13.54 2001 9.42 1.18 3.23 13.83 2002 7.56 1.31 3.53 12.40 2003 6.97 1.23 3.89 12.09 2004^ 6.04 1.10 3.83 10.97 2005^ 4.58 0.80 3.26 8.64 2006^ 4.19 0.81 2.98 7.98 2007 4.09 0.79 2.79 7.67 2008^ 3.29* 0.55* 2.59* 6.43* 2009 2.78 0.79 3.4 6.97 0.03 0.03 7.03 2010 2.29 0.79 3.3 6.38 0.12 0.23 6.73 2011 1.89 0.79 3.01 5.69 0.17 0.55 6.41 2012 1.56 0.72 2.72 5.00 0.26 0.96 6.22 2013 1.29 0.65 2.68 4.62 0.42 1.53 6.57 2014 1.06 0.60 2.36 4.02 0.51 2.29 6.82 2015 0.88 0.54 2.08 3.49 0.58 3.12 7.20 2016 0.72 0.49 1.83 3.04 0.61 3.9 7.55 2017 0.60 0.45 1.61 2.65 0.56 4.71 7.93 2018 0.49 0.41 1.41 2.32 0.53 5.42 8.27

^Indicates years with known anomalous data due to hurricane affected shut-in *Estimate

18

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017Year

Undiscovered ResourcesIndustry-Announced DiscoveriesMMS Deepwater ProjectionIndustry Deepwater ProjectionDeepwater (historical)MMS Shallow-water Deep ProjectionShallow-water Deep (historical)MMS Shallow-water Shallow ProjectionShallow-water Shallow (historical)

Bill

ion

Cub

ic F

eet/D

ay

Full Potential Scenario

Committed Scenario

Indicates years with known anomalous data due to hurricane affected shut-in

Figure 3. – Gulf of Mexico Average Annual Gas Production.

19

20

Contributors The Minerals Management Service acknowledges Mr. Kevin Karl for his continued

support of this project and Mike Prendergast for his many contributions. We would also

like to thank the following deepwater operators for their cooperation in this report:

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation ATP Oil and Gas Corporation

BHP Billiton Petroleum (Americas) Inc. BP America Production Company

ChevronTexaco Inc. Conoco Philips

Deep Gulf Energy LP ENI Petroleum Company ExxonMobil Corporation Marathon Oil Corporation

Mariner Mauribeni

Murphy Oil Corporation Newfield Exploration Company

Nexen Noble Energy, Inc.

Petrobras America Inc. Shell Offshore Inc.

StatoilHydro USA E&P, Inc. Walter Oil & Gas

21

References U.S. Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, 2006, “Assessment of

Undiscovered Technically Recoverable Oil and Gas Resources of the Nation’s

Outer Continental Shelf.” MMS Fact Sheet RED 2006-01b, February 2006, 6 p.

Karl, K. J., R.D. Baud, A.G. Boice, R. Bongiovanni, T.M. DeCort, R.P. Desselles, and

E.G. Kazanis, 2007, Gulf of Mexico Oil and Gas Production Forecast from 2007

Through 2016, U.S. Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service,

Gulf of Mexico OCS Region, OCS Report MMS 2007-020, New Orleans, 19 p.

Melancon, J. M., R.D. Baud, A.G. Boice, R. Bongiovanni, T.M. DeCort, R.P. Desselles,

and E.G. Kazanis, 2004, Gulf of Mexico Oil and Gas Production Forecast from

2004 Through 2013, U.S. Department of the Interior, Minerals Management

Service, Gulf of Mexico OCS Region, OCS Report MMS 2004-065, New

Orleans, 27 p.

Melancon, J. M., R. Bongiovanni, and R.D. Baud, 2003, Gulf of Mexico Outer

Continental Shelf Daily Oil and Gas Production Rate Projections from 2003











Melancon, J. M. and R.D. Baud, 2000, Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf Daily Oil

and Gas Production Rate Projections from 2000 Through 2004, U.S. Department

22

of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Gulf of Mexico OCS Region, OCS

Report MMS 2000-012, New Orleans, 20 p.

Melancon, J. M. and R.D. Baud, 1999, Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf Daily Oil




Melancon, J. M. and D.S. Roby, 1998, Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf Daily Oil




Proposed Final Program Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program 2007 -

2012, U.S. Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Gulf of

Mexico OCS Region, New Orleans, 146 p.

23

Notice Our goal is to publish a reliable production forecast based on the data available.

Therefore, we periodically review our methodology to improve our process and provide

accurate information. Please contact the Regional Supervisor, Production and

Development, Gulf of Mexico OCS Region, Minerals Management Service, 1201

Elmwood Park Boulevard, New Orleans, Louisiana, 70123, to communicate any

questions you have or ideas for consideration in our next report. The telephone number is

(504) 736-2675.

Table of AbbreviationsIntroduction Figure 1. - Water-depth and completion-depth divisions.Forecast Method: Committed ScenarioTable 1 - Development Systems of Productive Deepwater GOM ProjectsForecast Method: Full Potential ScenarioFactors Affecting the ForecastConclusionsTable 2. - Gulf of Mexico Average Annual Oil Rates (Thousand Barrels/Day)Figure 2. - Gulf of Mexico Average Annual Oil Production.Table 3. - Gulf of Mexico Average Annual Gas Rates (Billion Cubic Feet/Day)Figure 3. – Gulf of Mexico Average Annual Gas Production.ContributorsReferencesNotice

Table 1

Table 1 - Development Systems of Productive Deepwater GOM Projects

Year of First ProductionProject Name2OperatorBlockWater Depth (ft)System Type

1979CognacShellMC 1941,023Fixed Platform

1984LenaExxonMobilMC 2801,000Compliant Tower

1988GC 291PlacidGC 291,540Semisubmersible/Subsea

1988GC 311PlacidGC 312,243Subsea

1989BullwinkleShellGC 651,353Fixed Platform

1989JollietConocoPhillipsGC 1841,760TLP

1991AmberjackBPMC 1091,100Fixed Platform

1992AlabasterExxonMobilMC 4851,438Subsea

1993Diamond1Kerr McGeeMC 4452,095Subsea

1993ZincExxonMobilMC 3541,478Subsea

1994AugerShellGB 4262,860TLP

1994Tahoe/SE TahoeShellVK 7831,500Subsea

1994Pompano/ Pompano IIBPVK 9891,290Fixed Platform/ Subsea

1995Cooper1NewfieldGB 3882,097Semisubmersible

1995Shasta1ChevronTexacoGC 1361,048Subsea

1995VK 862WalterVK 8621,043Subsea

1996Rocky1ShellGC 1101,785Subsea

1996PopeyeShellGC 1162,000Subsea

1996MarsShellMC 8072,933TLP/Subsea

1997TroikaBPGC 2002,721Subsea

1997MensaShellMC 7315,318Subsea

1997NeptuneKerr McGeeVK 8261,930Spar/Subsea

1997Ram-PowellShellVK 9563,216TLP

1998OysterMarathonEW 9171,195Subsea

1998MorpethEniEW 9211,700TLP/Subsea

1998ArnoldMarathonEW 9631,800Subsea

1998BaldpateAmerada HessGB 2601,648Compliant Tower

1999EW 1006WalterEW 10061,884Subsea

1999Penn StateAmerada HessGB 2161,450Subsea

1999Dulcimer1MarinerGB 3671,120Subsea

1999MacaroniShellGB 6023,600Subsea

1999AngusShellGC 1132,045Subsea

1999GenesisChevronTexacoGC 2052,590Spar

1999AlleghenyEniGC 2543,294TLP

1999GeminiChevronTexacoMC 2923,393Subsea

1999PlutoMarinerMC 6742,828Subsea

1999UrsaShellMC 8093,800TLP

1999VirgoTotalFinaElfVK 8231,130Fixed Platform

2000Allegheny SouthENIGC 2983,307Subsea

2000HooverExxonMobilAC 254,825Spar

2000DianaExxonMobilEB 9454,500Subsea

2000Black WidowMarinerEW 9661,850Subsea

2000NorthwesternAmerada HessGB 2001,736Subsea

2000CongerAmerada HessGB 2151,500Subsea

2000KingShellMC 7643,250Subsea

2000EuropaShellMC 9353,870Subsea

2000PetroniusChevronTexacoVK 7861,753Compliant Tower

2000MarlinBPVK 9153,236TLP

2001PilsnerUnocalEB 2051,108Subsea

2001MarshallExxonMobilEB 9494,376Subsea

2001PrinceEl PasoEW 10031,500TLP

2001EW 878WalterEW 8781,585Subsea

2001LadybugATPGB 4091,355Subsea

2001SerranoShellGB 5163,153Subsea

2001OreganoShellGB 5593,400Subsea

2001BrutusShellGC 1583,300TLP

2001Typhoon7HelixGC 2372,679TLP

2001MicaExxonMobilMC 2114,580Subsea

2001MC 681WalterMC 681,360Subsea

2001CrosbyShellMC 8994,400Subsea

2001Einset1ShellVK 8723,500Subsea

2001NileBPVK 9143,535Subsea

2002MadisonExxonMobilAC 244,856Subsea

2002King's PeakBPDC 1336,845Subsea

2002Lost ArkNobelEB 4212,960Subsea

2002NansenKerr McGeeEB 6023,685Spar

2002North Boomvang4Kerr McGeeEB 6433,650Spar

2002NavajoKerr McGeeEB 6904,210Subsea

2002TulaneAmerada HessGB 1581,054Subsea

2002ManateeShellGC 1551,939Subsea

2002Sangria1Hydro GOMGC 1771,487Subsea

2002AspenBPGC 2433,065Subsea

2002King KongMarinerGC 4723,980Subsea

2002YosemiteMarinerGC 5164,150Subsea

2002Horn MountainBPMC 1275,400Spar

2002AconcaguaTotalFinaElfMC 3057,100Subsea

2002Camden HillsMarathonMC 3487,216Subsea

2002PrincessShellMC 7653,642Subsea

2002King9BPMC 845,418Subsea

2002East Boomvang4Kerr McGeeEB 6883,795Subsea

2003FalconMarubeniEB 5793,638Subsea

2003TomahawkMarubeniEB 6233,412Subsea

2003West Boomvang4Kerr McGeeEB 6423,678Subsea

2003HabaneroShellGB 3412,015Subsea

2003Durango5Kerr McGeeGB 6673,105Subsea

2003GunnisonKerr McGeeGB 6683,100Spar

2003Dawson5Kerr McGeeGB 6693,152Subsea

2003BorisBHP BillitonGC 2822,378Subsea

2003MatterhornTotalFinaElfMC 2432,850TLP

2003PardnerAnadarkoMC 4011,139Subsea

2003ZiaDevonMC 4961,804Subsea

2003Herschel/ Na KikaShellMC 5206,739Semisubmersible/Subsea3

2003Fourier/ Na KikaShellMC 5226,940Semisubmersible/Subsea3

2003North MedusaMurphyMC 5382,223Subsea

2003MedusaMurphyMC 5822,223Spar

2003East Ansley/Na KikaShellMC 6076,590Semisubmersible/Subsea3

2004Devil's TowerEniMC 7735,610Spar

2004South DianaExxonMobilAC 654,852Subsea

2004Hack WilsonKerr-McGeeEB 5993,650Subsea

2004RaptorPioneerEB 6683,710Subsea

2004Harrier1PioneerEB 7594,114Subsea

2004LlanoShellGB 3862,340Subsea

2004MagnoliaConocophilipsGB 7834,674TLP

2004Red HawkKerr-McGeeGB 8775,300Spar

2004GB 208McMoranGB 2081,275Subsea

2004GliderShellGC 2483,440Subsea

2004Front RunnerMurphyGC 3383,330Spar

2004Marco PoloAnadarkoGC 6084,300TLP

2004HolsteinBPGC 6454,340Spar

2004Kepler/Na KikaBPMC 3835,759Semisubmersible/Subsea3

2004Ariel/Na KikaBPMC 4296,240Semisubmersible/Subsea3

2004Coulomb/ Na KikaShellMC 6577,591Semisubmersible/Subsea3

2004OchreMarinerMC 661,144Subsea


2005GC 137NexenGC 1371,168Subsea

2005CitrineLLOGGC 1572,614Subsea

2005BaccaratW and T OffshoreGC 1781,404Subsea

2005K2AnadarkoGC 5624,006Subsea

2005Mad DogBPGC 7824,420Spar

2005Triton/GoldfingerEniMC 7285,610Subsea

2005Killer BeeWalterMC 582Subsea

2005SwordfishNobleVK 9624,677Subsea

2006SW HorseshoeWalterEB 4302,285Subsea

2006Dawson DeepKerr McGeeGB 6252,965Subsea

2006LorienNobleGC 1992,315Subsea

2006K2 NorthAnadarkoGC 5184,049Subsea

2006ConstitutionKerr McGeeGC 6804,970Spar

2006TiconderogaKerr McGeeGC 7685,272Subsea

2006RigelEniMC 2525,225Subsea

2006GomezATPMC 7112,975Semisubmersible

2006Seventeen HandsEniMC2995,881Subsea

2007Vortex/Ind. HubAnadarkoAT 2618,344FPS/Subsea6

2007Jubilee/Ind. HubAnadarkoAT 3498,825FPS/Subsea6

2007Merganser/Ind. HubAnadarkoAT 378,015FPS/Subsea6

2007San Jacinto/Ind. HubEniDC 6187,850FPS/Subsea6

2007Spiderman/Ind. HubAnadarkoDC 6218,087FPS/Subsea6

2007CottonwoodPetrobrasGB 2442,130Subsea

2007Shenzi8BHP BillitonGC 6524,300Subsea

2007AtlantisBPGC 7877,050Semisubmersible

2007Mondo NW/Ind. HubAnadarkoLL 18,340FPS/Subsea6

2007Cheyenne/Ind. HubAnadarkoLL 3998,951FPS/Subsea6

2007Atlas-Atlas NW/Ind. HubAnadarkoLL 508,934FPS/Subsea6

2007WrigleyNewfieldMC 5063,911Subsea

2007DeimosShellMC 8063,106Subsea

2007Q/Ind. HubHydroMC 9617,925FPS/Subsea6

2007AnduinATPMC 7552,904Subsea

2007TigerDeep Gulf EnergyGC 1951,900Subsea

2008NeptuneBHP BillitonAT 5754,232TLP


2008RatonNobelMC 2483,290Subsea

2008Blind FaithChevronTexacoMC 6966,989Semisubmersible

2008Valley ForgeLLOGMC 7071,538Subsea

2008Thunder HorseBPMC 7786,037Semisubmersible

2008Bass LiteMarinerAT 4266,634Subsea

2009PegasusEniGC 3853,498Subsea

2009Mirage and MorgusATPMC 9414,000Mini TLP

2009DoradoBPVK 9153,236Subsea

2009GB 302WalterGB 3022,410Subsea

2009TahitiChevronTexacoGC 6404,000Spar

2009LonghornEniMC 5022,442Subsea

2009IsabelaBPMC 5626,500Subsea

2009Thunder HawkMurphyMC 7346,050Semisubmersible

2009ClipperATPGC 2993,452

2009MC 72LLOGMC 722,013

2009MC 583WalterMC 5832,487

2009GeauxpherMarinerGB 4622,823

2009Thunder Horse NorthBPMC 7765,660

2009Unreleasable10

2009Unreleasable10

2009Unreleasable10

2010TelemarkATPAT 634,385Mini TLP

2010Great WhiteShellAC 8578,000Spar

2010MC 241WalterMC 2412,415

2010Caesar TongaAnadarkoGC 6834,672Subsea

2010SilvertipShellAC 8159,226Subsea

2010TobagoShellAC 8599,627Subsea

2010CascadePetrobrasWR 2068,143FPSO/Subsea

2010ChinookPetrobrasWR 4698,831FPSO/Subsea

2010DroshkyMarathonGC 2442,900

2010Unreleasable10

2010Unreleasable10

2011OzonaMarathonGB 5153,000

2012Unreleasable10

2012Unreleasable10

2013Unreleasable10

2013Unreleasable10

2013Unreleasable10

2013Unreleasable10

2013Unreleasable10

2013Unreleasable10

2013Unreleasable10

2013Unreleasable10

2013PumaBPGC 8234,129

2014Unreleasable10

2016Unreleasable10

1 Indicates projects that are no longer on production.

2 The previous edition of this report listed deepwater fields, whereas this version lists deepwater projects.

3 Na Kika FPS is located in Mississippi Canyon Block 474 in 6,340 ft (1,932 m) of water.

4 2004 Report referred to entire area as Boomvang

5 Included in 2004 Report with Gunnison

6 Independence Hub FPS will be located in Mississippi Canyon Block 920 in 7,920 ft (2,414 m) of water.

7Formerly known as Typhoon under ChevronTexaco operation, now named Phoenix under Helix operation.

8 Formerly known as Genghis Khan

9 Includes King South

10 Unreleasable – operator has commitment to produce and/or is planning to develope project but has not publicly released project information.

AC = Alaminos Canyon

AT = Atwater Valley

DC = De Soto Canyon

EB = East Breaks

EW = Ewing Bank

GB = Garden Banks

GC = Green Canyon

LL = Lloyd Ridge

MC = Mississippi Canyon

VK = Viosca Knoll

WR = Walker Ridge

Table 2 Oil

YearShallow-waterMMS Shallow-water ProjectionDeepwaterIndustry Deepwater ProjectionMMS Deepwater ProjectionCommitted Scenario-Total GOMIndustry-Announced DiscoveriesUndiscovered ResourcesFull Potential Scenario- Total GOM

1993745101845

1994746115860

1995792151943

19968131981010

19978302961126

19987814361217

19997386151353

20006907431433

20016678641531

20026019551556

20035779571534

20045139531466

20053878921279

20063579291286

20073818951276

20083138291142

20092889251213021215

201025111401391771405

20112181417163513181667

20121901418160894331735

201316513931558241801879

2014144122613693411381849

2015125107912044252051833

201610994910584632881809

2017958359304313991760

2018827358174105081735

Table 3 Gas

YearShallow-water ShallowMMS Shallow-water Shallow ProjectionShallow-water DeepMMS Shallow-water Deep ProjectionDeepwaterIndustry Deepwater ProjectionMMS Deepwater ProjectionCommitted Scenario-Total GOMIndustry-Announced DiscoveriesUndiscovered ResourcesFull Potential Scenario- Total GOM

199311.890.510.3312.73

199412.200.600.4413.24

199511.790.810.4913.09

199612.170.930.7613.86

199711.871.231.0514.15

199811.111.191.5413.84

199910.441.062.3113.81

20009.840.962.7413.54

20019.421.183.2313.83

20027.561.313.5312.40

20036.971.233.8912.09

20046.041.103.8310.97

20054.580.803.268.64

20064.190.812.987.98

20074.090.792.797.67

20083.290.552.596.43

20092.780.793.46.970.030.037.03

20102.290.793.36.380.120.236.73

20111.890.793.015.690.170.556.41

20121.560.722.725.000.260.966.22

20131.290.652.684.620.421.536.57

20141.060.602.364.020.512.296.82

20150.880.542.083.490.583.127.20

20160.720.491.833.040.613.97.55

20170.600.451.612.650.564.717.93

20180.490.411.412.320.535.428.27

Documents

Cover: The Independence Hub semisubmersible is the world’s ... · 2003 Matterhorn TotalFinaElf MC 243 2,850 TLP 2003 Pardner Anadarko MC 401 1,139 Subsea 2003 Zia Devon MC 496 1,804