Cover Sheet - World Banklnweb90.worldbank.org/.../$file/Pakistan_2010-2014_CPSCRR_87715.pdf · (ii) improving human development and social protection; ... The global recession,

CPSCR Reviewed by: Peer Reviewed by: CASCR Review Coordinator

Mauricio Carrizosa, Consultant, IEGPS Igor Artemiev, Consultant, IEGCC

Anis Dani, Lead Evaluation Officer, IEGCC Takatoshi Kamezawa, Senior Evaluation Officer, IEGCC

Geeta Batra Manager, IEGCC

CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group

1. CPS Data

Country: Pakistan

CPS Year: FY11 CPS Period: FY10– FY14

CPSCR Review Period:FY10– FY14 Date of this review: April 21, 2014

2. Executive Summary

i. This review examines the implementation of the FY10-FY13 Pakistan Country PartnershipStrategy (CPS) and of the FY12-FY14 CPS Progress Report (CPSPR). The CPS was jointly implemented by IBRD, IDA, and IFC and covers the joint program of the three institutions.

ii. The CPS aimed to improve economic growth, conflict management, and social indicators withinterventions organized under four pillars in the results matrix: (i) improving economic governance; (ii) improving human development and social protection; (iii) improving infrastructure to support growth; and (iv) improving security and reducing the risk of conflict. While the CPSPR maintained the same four pillars, it revisited a number of milestones and CPS outcomes, in response to changes in progress in the different areas, as well as to new situations that had emerged by the time of the CPS Progress Report. These new circumstances included the July 2010 and August 2011 floods, slower reforms and security issues, the issuance of the 2011 Framework for Economic Growth, and the 2010 18th Constitutional Amendment that devolved most government services and a share of revenues to the Provinces. The CPS identified three specific top-priority or "transformational" activities: i) assisting the government to raise the ratio of tax revenue to GDP through strengthened tax policy and administration; ii) supporting power sector reform so as to ensure a sustainable expansion of power supply; and iii) addressing security issues related both to coping with the consequences of conflict, and reducing the risk of future conflict.

iii. IEG rates the outcome of WBG support as moderately unsatisfactory, consistent with the CPSCRrating. IEG rated two of the four pillars as moderately unsatisfactory, one as unsatisfactory and one as moderately satisfactory. IEG rated Pillar I on improving economic governance as unsatisfactory, with three outcomes partially achieved, and two not achieved; Pillar II on improving human development and social protection as moderately satisfactory, with one outcome achieved, one mostly achieved, and two partially achieved; Pillar III on improving infrastructure as moderately unsatisfactory, with one outcome mostly achieved, three outcomes partially achieved and one not achieved; and Pillar IV as moderately unsatisfactory, with two partially achieved outcomes. Outcomes achieved or mostly achieved were in the areas of safety nets; rural livelihoods; and urban services. Outcomes partially achieved related to public expenditure; public sector management; governance of markets; access to education, health, nutrition and population services; transport and logistics; irrigation and agriculture; environmental sustainability; employment and livelihood opportunities in conflict affected areas, and responsiveness and effectiveness of the state in conflict areas. Other outcomes were not achieved.

iv. Of the several CPSCR lessons, this assessment highlights three: the contribution of donorcoordination to unifying messages on long-term issues (e.g., energy); the increased focus of sectors and instruments on CPS goals that can be achieved under a simpler results framework that is more actively monitored and used for program adjustments; and the pay-off that persistent engagement on key activities, even during difficult times, can have on results. To these, this assessment adds that the

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Bank is likely to improve results if it probes more systematically into political economy considerations to select a support program with fair chances of being implemented.

3. WBG Strategy Summary

Overview of CPS Relevance:

Country Context:

1. Pakistan's development has suffered from long-term lackluster economic growth, with onlythree periods of at least four years of successive per capita GDP growth above 3.0 percent since 1961. While the last of these periods was 2004-07, when growth averaged 4.6 percent, average growth during the first twelve years of the 21st century (2.2 percent) was much below India's (5.6 percent), Bangladesh's (4.4 percent) or China's (9.5 percent). Diverse shocks help explain poor GDP performance. The global recession, the 2010 flood that submerged over 100,000km2 of land and displaced nearly 10 percent of the country's population, and security and political disruptions led to zero per-capita GDP growth during 2008-10. Further, floods in 2011 and 2012 prevented a speedier recovery. Progress towards all of the eight MDGs is lagging, with only nine of the 33 indicators on the goals on track. Nevertheless, extreme poverty, a key MDG indicator, appears to have declined on track. In Punjab, where data is relatively more robust than in other provinces, poverty declined from 33.5 percent of the population in 2001/02 to 14.6 percent in 2010/11. Presently, Pakistan continues to face multiple development challenges. World Economic Forum (WEF) indicators suggest that the macroeconomic environment, health and primary education, infrastructure, and institutions stand out among the factors that require attention for country competitiveness. More broadly, observers agree that improvements in social welfare will hinge on better access to social services, sustainable livelihoods, risk management, governance and social cohesion, social justice including gender balance, and food security.

2. Pakistan's last PRSP-II (2009) outlined its FY09-11 development objectives under nine pillars,as follows: (i) Macroeconomic Stability and Real Sector Growth; (ii) Protecting the Poor and the Vulnerable; (iii) Increasing Productivity and Value Addition in Agriculture; (iv) Integrated Energy Development Program; (v) Making Industry Internationally Competitive; (vi) Human Development for the 21st Century; (vii) Removing Infrastructure Bottlenecks through Public Private Partnerships; (viii) Capital and Finance for Development; and (ix) Governance for a Just and Fair System. The 2009 PRSP was to cover the three-year FY09-11 period as well as provide a development framework for beyond this timeframe. In May 2011, the Government issued its new Strategy "Pakistan: Framework for Economic Growth" (FEG) that outlined a program to accelerate growth through market development (addressing lack of competition, tax, tariff and policy distortions, entry barriers, government involvement, poor regulation) and improved public sector efficiency (better core governance goods such as security of life, property, transaction and contract; facilitation of markets and investment with informed policy and competent regulation; and deepening of physical, human and social infrastructure). However, the FEG did not lead to significant differences in the government's development allocations and, after the 2013 change in government, it was no longer considered to be the government's strategy.

Objectives of the WBG Strategy:

3. The CPS aimed to improve economic growth, conflict management, and social indicators withinterventions organized under four pillars in the results matrix: (i) improving economic governance; (ii) improving human development and social protection; (iii) improving infrastructure to support growth; and (iv) improving security and reducing the risk of conflict. While the CPSPR maintained the same four pillars, it revisited a number of milestones and CPS outcomes, in response to changes in progress in the different areas as well as to new situations that had emerged by the time of the CPS Progress Report. These circumstances included the July 2010 and August 2011 floods, slower reforms and security issues, the issuance of the 2011 Framework for Economic Growth, and the 2010 18th


Constitutional Amendment that devolved most government services and a share of revenues to the Provinces. The CPS identified three specific top-priority or "transformational" activities: i) assisting the government to raise the ratio of tax revenue to GDP through strengthened tax policy and administration; ii) supporting power sector reform so as to ensure a sustainable expansion of power supply; and iii) addressing security issues related both to coping with the consequences of conflict and reducing the risk of future conflict.

4. There were no differences between the stated objectives in the text of the CAS/CPS and thosein the results framework in the annexes of the strategy documents.

Relevance of the WBG Strategy:

5. Congruence with Country Context and Program. The CPS objectives covered most of theareas in which increased competitiveness and social welfare would need to focus on. These included fiscal, financial, and institutional reforms to ensure macroeconomic stability, improve public expenditure, and strengthen accountability; education, health, and social protection reforms to increase human development and reduce poverty; infrastructure reforms and financing to improve agricultural competitiveness, reduce energy gaps, improve transport logistics, and deliver better urban services; and improved security and services to raise livelihoods in conflict affected areas. Although these were all areas covered by the Government's program (the 2009 PRSP II and the 2011 FEG), Pakistan's prior record suggested weak commitment to macroeconomic performance, private sector development (PSD), resolving infrastructure gaps and strengthening government capacity. The CPS Progress Report accommodated the program to meet the needs raised by the floods and the crises-affected provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and adapt to the weaker environment for structural reforms.

6. Relevance of Design. The CPS design included adjustment lending to help achieve theimportant reforms needed to achieve the desired impact, together with resources to finance investments, institutions and capacity building, and social protection, and Multi-donor Trust Fund (MDTF) grants to help meet the special needs of the crises-affected provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). AAA covered all of the pillars, albeit with concentration on economic governance. Inclusion of a number of provincial operations was appropriate for an environment where more responsibilities and resources were to go to the provincial governments to deliver basic services. IFC was to focus on access to finance to underserved groups, especially Micro Small and Medium Enterprise (MSME) clients; on sustainable investment into the power sector, including renewable power generation; on privatization of utility and distribution companies with the objective of improving efficiencies; on public-private partnerships (PPP) and investments in a number of areas (ports, logistics, health, education, agribusiness) . IFC was to step up its advisory services, the second largest in the MENA region, to support private sector development in infrastructure, access to finance, housing finance, business enabling environment, and deepening of financial markets. Coordination with other partners covered the IMF program, crisis response, social safety nets, polio eradication, and some joint analytical work. The original CPS referred to the growing interest among development partners to formulate and develop a joint Results Framework for support to Pakistan. The design outlined above was more relevant for the reform environment that the CPS assumed than for an environment where flood disasters struck, the reform pace faltered, and devolution of resources and services imposed stronger challenges on fiscal probity and institution building. Design under the CPS Progress Report responded to these challenges by reducing development policy operations, increasing engagement with the provinces, and increasing operations in response to the flood disasters.

7. Strength of the Results Framework. The CPS 's broad results framework establishedappropriate causal links: improvements in governance were seen as central to improve revenue mobilization to resolve fiscal constraints; raise the rate of return on public expenditure; deliver more and better education, health and social protection to raise human development; increase infrastructure investment to redress growth; shift towards export orientation to encourage employment; and increase security while reducing conflict to help reduce poverty. At the more specific levels, some outcome indicators depicted the CPS objectives adequately, as with fiscal and revenue objectives. But a number of objectives with multiple results each (e.g." Enhanced Delivery of Health, Nutrition and


Population Services") resulted in an overly complex results framework. Moreover, achievement of many objectives was to be measured by process indicators (e.g., design of a strategy) or indicators that were too narrow a depiction of the objective (e.g., polio and HIV prevention to gauge Enhanced Delivery of Health, Nutrition and Population Services). Several objectives (e.g., education quality) were not monitored. A sharper distinction of indicators relating to achievement of objectives from indicators of the Bank's contribution would have been desirable. Many indicators lacked benchmarks, particularly, those related to IFC, since IFC contributions were not adequately targeted when the strategy was prepared and presented to the board in July 2010. Considering that IFC's main investment activities rely on its client relationships, where it is not easy to plan when its private sector transactions could take place, it is understandable that IFC's operation was not fully captured in the results framework at the preparation stage of CPS. However, it was not corrected when the progress report was presented to the board in November 2011 and IFC's contributions to the specific pillars were clearer, as many IFC investments were disbursed or at advanced stage of negotiations. When the team produced the CPSPR, IFC's contributions to CPS objectives should have been better defined. With one exception related to microfinance, the CPSPR made only general references to IFC's activities (e.g., "1 new investment in transport", or "an advisory project on wastepaper recovery") without laying out specific objectives of the operation or any specific target. Hence, as recognized in the completion report, although the results framework covered IFC activities as part of the array of CPS implementation instruments, IFC input into the formulation of outcomes and milestones was not evident. Accordingly, the exceeded targets and expectations cannot be assessed as satisfactory outcomes because the IFC input to the CPS's outcomes was not obvious.

8. Risk Identification and Mitigation. In general, support for reforms and disbursements wouldhinge on meeting reform milestones and making progress on agreed results, with expansion of the overall CPS program dependent on meeting a key set of targets. The CPSCR indicated that performance based operations increased following the CPS Progress Report, but did not provide an account of how this risk management approach worked in practice. Political risk (the risk that pain from the stabilization program could reverse this program) was to be managed through dialogue in the context of the IMF Stand-By arrangement (SBA); this risk started materializing even before the date of CPS, with the SBA already off-track at the time and closing in September 2011, and with two more years before agreement was reached on a new IMF Extended Fund Facility Arrangement (EFFA). Risks from the conflict were to be addressed by mitigating risks to staff, better understanding the sources of conflict and MDTF operations in conflict-affected areas; although the CPS devoted a full pillar to addressing needs in conflict areas, its traction was diminished with the cancellation of the major operation in this pillar due to a changed provincial position on the use of funds. Dialogue, supervision, and a strong IFC presence were to mitigate implementation risks; these activities may help explain a decline in the share of Bank projects-at-risk to levels below the world and SAR averages. The CPS Progress Report assessed that governance risks were considerable and planned to build-in demand-side governance in projects through the use of feedback and grievance mechanisms, as well as social accountability initiatives with involvement of youth in monitoring where appropriate. Finally, the CPS Progress Report assessed an increase in the risk of natural disasters and planned to address it by building in flexibility in project design for emergency response and by increasing attention to enhancing preparedness for disaster risk reduction. This risk materialized from the flood at very beginning of the CPS period, and the Bank addressed it through reallocation of existing disaster funding and an increase in project and AAA disaster prevention and management activities.

Overview of CPS Implementation:

Lending and Investments:

9. The 2010 CPS planned an FY10-12 "high priority" IBRD/IDA lending program of 23 projectsamounting to $3,634.0 million, plus $150 million in grants for Pillar 4 projects under the MDTF. It envisaged total financing (including the MDTF grants) of up to $6,200 million for the full four-year CPS period (FY12-13). By comparison, IBRD/IDA approved 44 projects amounting to $4,701.0


million during the previous four-year CAS (FY06-09). The 2011 CPS Progress Report extended the CPS period to FY14. Actual IBRD/IDA lending during the five-year period included 25 projects that amounted to $4,436.9 million, less than the $5,532.5 million planned in the Progress Report. The breakdown of actual lending by CPS pillar was as follows: economic governance (6.6 percent), human development and social safety nets (43.1 percent), infrastructure (44.7 percent), and improving security/reducing the risk of conflict (5.6 percent). Compared with the planned FY10-12 amount, the share of actual FY10-14 lending for infrastructure and human development increased. Higher lending for irrigation, power, reconstruction, safety nets and health contributed to this shift. Much of this (e.g., the restructuring and additional $300 million financing of a pre-existing Earthquake Emergency Response Credit to cover floods) responded to the 2010 and 2011 floods. Due to the slow pace of structural reforms, IBRD/IDA approved only one development policy loan (Social Safety Nets for $200 million); it accounted for 6.8 percent of total financing, well below the 25 percent share of development policy lending envisaged by the CPS (which included two PRSCs of $300 million each) or the 32.3 percent share of financing approved during the previous CAS. The pre-existing portfolio of 21 projects ($3,281.27 million) was similarly concentrated on infrastructure and human development as actual CPS lending. Trust Funds approved $404.6 million, largely concentrated on human development activities.

10. The share of projects at risk declined from 22.7 percent in 2010 to 16.7 percent in 2014, butthe share of commitments increased from 9.7 percent to 15.1 percent. Both were below the SAR and WB averages in 2014. The disbursement ratio declined from 26.9 percent in 2010 to 20.6 percent in 2014, the latter higher the SAR and WB averages. IEG satisfactory outcome ratings accounted for 93.4 percent of the value of projects evaluated (71.4 percent of the number of projects), with risk to development outcome rated moderate or lower on 25.4 percent of that value (20 percent of the number of projects). These shares were better than the average for SAR or the WB. But several of the projects approved during the CPS period as well a few from the pre-existing portfolio had not yet demonstrated any outcomes.

11. When the CPS was presented in July 2010, IFC envisaged annual commitments of $500million, of which $250 million were to be short-term trade finance guarantees under the Global Trade Finance Program (GTFP) and $250 million were to be long-term IFC loans and equity investments. From FY10 to FY14, IFC made total net commitments of $ 2.3 billion. This amount significantly exceeded IFC's CPS target of $1.3--1.5 billion. Nevertheless, the bulk of IFC's net commitments - 81.4 percent and 78.2 percent of IFC’s original commitments -- were from GTFP. IFC provided short-term credit guarantees to 13 Pakistani banks under GTFP. Trade finance relationships with most of Pakistani banks had started before the current CPS period in the wake of the global economic crisis, and these guarantees were rolled over during FY10-FY14. The amount of these trade finance guarantees ($1.87 billion) made Pakistan the 2nd largest country among the 70 countries-recipients of GTFP and the largest in MENA. As to long-term investments, IFC invested in 5 smaller projects in electricity (with a total investment of only $234million), 5 transactions in chemicals, agribusiness and real estate ($98million), 2 in transport terminals ($40 million), and 4 projects in MSME finance ($20 million). During the 5-year CPS period, IFC appeared to more than double its commitments in Pakistan compared to the previous four-year CAS period, when they amounted to $873 million. However, IFC increased its commitments and significantly exceeded its quantitative target solely due to the GTFP roll over. During the previous CAS period, GTFP commitments had comprised only 38.3 percent of total net commitments.

12. Aside from the revolving short-term guarantee facility of GTFP, the amount of new long-termIFC net commitments to Pakistan went down by $103 million, from $538 million in FY06-09 to $435 million in FY10-14. Although IFC managed to exceed its CPS annual GTFP commitment target of $250 million, it failed to reach its equivalent target for long-term equity investments and loans. In FY12, IFC managed to commit at least $ 201 million of long-term investments. By comparison, all of its net commitments in FY14 so far have been under the GTFP, except for two small infrastructure projects ($10.3 million). In FY13, IFC had a total of $330 million under GTFP; by comparison, IFC's sole major new long-term loan commitment amounted to only $11 million for an office tower project.

13. During the CPS period the IFC success rate in Pakistan measured by DOTS was below the


FY14 IFC average of 62 percent of investment projects with successful development outcome. DOTS ratings of IFC investment projects in Pakistan deteriorated during the CPS period. Out of 50 investment project in supervision only 11 projects (22 percent) were successful in their development outcome ratings (1 - highly successful, 5 - successful and another 5 - mostly successful). 14 projects were rated mostly unsuccessful, and 3 were rated as highly unsuccessful. IFC is still at the pilot stage of including GTFP transactions in its DOTS system since FY12, and the results of DOTS for GTFP operations in Pakistan are not yet available. In-depth evaluations also indicate that IFC performance in Pakistan was not very strong. IEG reviewed 12 Expanded Project Supervision Reports (XPSRs) and found that 1 project was unsuccessful, 6 were mostly unsuccessful, 3 - mostly successful, 1 - successful and another 1 - highly successful. From the quality perspective IFC deliveries have not exceeded expectations either.

14. MIGA guarantees at the CPS's inception stood at $81.8 million and grew to $106 million byend 2011 with the provision of political risk insurance (PRI) in conjunction with IFC's attempted or completed investments in ports, terminals, hydropower, other infrastructure and in one microfinance bank's expansion. MIGA activities in Pakistan were not covered in the CPSCR and cannot be evaluated separately.

Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services

15. The CPS planned on completing 36 non-lending service tasks. The CPSPR dropped 5 of thoseand added 26. There were 85 actual tasks delivered during the full five-year CPS period, distributed across the governance (62.4 percent), Human Development (18.8 percent), Infrastructure (14.1 percent) and Security and Conflict Reduction (4.7 percent) pillars. These tasks produced several reports. Under Economic Governance, 50 reports covered broad development policy issues; sector policies; trade policies; fiscal, public sector and financial management, accountability policies; environmental policies; and disaster risk management issues. Under human development, 31 reports covered education and training; health issues; social safety nets; labor market policies; and gender. On infrastructure, seven reports covered its growth impact, private sector participation, efficiency in the energy sub-sector, and water/sanitation issues. Finally, one report developed a Post-Crisis Needs Assessment (PCNA) for a peace building strategy for the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) and KP.

16. IFC entered the CPS period with 7 active advisory projects (AS) in supervision: 2 in access tofinance, 4 in investment climate and 1 in renewable energy. The CPS planned to start 14 more IFC AS projects: 5 in access to finance, 2 PPPs, 3 - in infrastructure, 3 in renewable energy, 1 in cleaner production. During the CPS period the active AS portfolio reached 23 projects of which only 6 projects were closed: 2 (in SBA and SME farmer training) with successful self-evaluated ratings, 2 (subnational doing business and wind power) - with mostly unsuccessful ratings, 1 (sustainable finance) - with unsuccessful rating and 1 (microfinance) - too early to tell now, three years after its closure). One project was terminated 3 months after its start (a mortgage refinance company). There are 16 active projects left in the IFC advisory portfolio at the completion of the current strategy: 5 in access to finance, 7 in investment climate, 2 in energy, and 2 are PPPs in storage. Only 2 of these 16 projects have been rated, both as successful. The remaining 14 have not been yet evaluated since most of them were approved less than a year ago; or the activity started late in the project cycle, hence their development outcomes are yet to be measured. IEG has not validated any AS project active during the CPS period. However, in FY2010 IEG reviewed 2 projects from the previous CPS: assistance to Pakistan Business Council, rated as unsuccessful, and the First Corporate Governance Project, considered too early to judge. Many AS initiatives mentioned in the CPS were dropped, including, PPP in health; projects in cleaner production, education, privatization of electricity distribution companies, airports, toll roads, and sustainable practices in irrigation.

Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination

17. Donors used various arrangements to share information, discuss development issues andsupport, and develop coordinated positions (e.g., with the ADB and other development partners on energy pricing). Actual coordinated support covered the IMF program, crisis response, social safety nets, polio eradication, and some joint analytical work. The Bank collaborated with the IMF on the Stand-By Arrangement that closed in September 2011, leading the policy dialogue on tax


administration, electricity and social protection issues. The Bank worked closely with the Government of Pakistan (GoP) and development partners to carry out the Post-Conflict Needs Assessment (PCNA). The PCNA was prepared in collaboration with the UN, EU, and ADB, following the militancy crisis in KP and FATA. Based on the PCNA, the Bank established and led the MDTF for the KP, FATA, and Balochistan provinces and areas. The MDTF involved extensive collaboration, as it is supported by 10 donors. Donors also coordinated around the cash transfers under the Citizen's Damage Compensation Program (CDCP) that benefited flood victims and the BISP (Benazir Income Support Program) Safety Net Program established in 2008. In health, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Rotary International (RI) through the UN Foundation (UNF) supported the Third Partnership for Polio Eradication Project (Additional Financing) through the IDA buy-down mechanism under which they repay the IDA credit to the World Bank at net present value if the project is implemented successfully. In addition to the PCNA, joint AAA included the Economic Report on Gilgit-Baltistan prepared with the Aga Khan Development Network and the ADB, and work with DFID and the EU on Public Expenditure, Procurement, and Financial Management Practices.

Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues

18. The CPSCR provided information on fiduciary achievements during the CPS period .However,it did not discuss safeguard issues. Going forward, the WBG needs to systematically address safeguard issues, particularly as new infrastructure projects materialize.

Overview of Achievement by Objective:

Pillar I: Improved Governance and Performance of Public Sector:

19. Pillar I sought to improve macroeconomic management; strengthen tax policy andadministration; strengthen public expenditure, financial and procurement management; enhance capacity and accountability in public sector management; and strengthen governance of markets.

20. Improved Macroeconomic Management. Not Achieved. The January 2014 IMF SBA reportedan increase in the fiscal deficit from 2009/10 (5.9 percent of GDP) to 2011/12 (8.4 percent) and a mild improvement in 2012/13 (to 7.8 percent). It programmed a more significant improvement for 2013/14 (to 5.5 percent). The CPS Progress Report expected progress in the fiscal deficit to below 5.5 percent of GDP in 2013/14, which had not yet been achieved by 2012/13, the last year for which there is data.

21. Although the IMF was the main GoP counterpart on macroeconomic management issues, theBank offered its own analysis in AAA, including the 2013 CEM and Policy Notes and a 2011 Debt Sustainability Analysis.

22. Strengthened Tax Policy and Administration. Not Achieved. The CPS expected tax thatimproved compliance management (indicated in the PRSP II) and introduction of a broad-based value added tax would raise revenues to above 10 percent of GDP. Tax revenue fluctuated around 10 percent of GDP. It was estimated at 9.7 percent in 2012/13, the last year for which there is data.

23. The Bank's preexisting 2005 Tax Administration Reform Project was unsuccessful in raisingrevenues. AAA support included an FY13 Mobilizing Revenue report that identified five main weaknesses in tax policy and collection: complexity, a narrow tax base, low compliance, inefficient tax administration, and low and declining provincial tax revenues. Furthermore, the Bank provided advice to the Punjab Province in 2012 to reform its property tax. These initiatives have not yet had an impact on public revenue performance.

24. Strengthened Public Expenditure, Financial and Procurement Management. PartiallyAchieved. The federal budget has been operating under a Medium Term Budget Framework (MTBF) at least since the 2009/10 budget. The MTBF was extended to the KP province in 2011, two other provinces piloted it but did not follow through. The Financial Management Information System has also been operating since at least 2009 and it is functional at the federal, provincial and district levels. The CPSCR reports the increased timeliness of civil accounts, year-end accounts, and audit reports improved. External assessments of budget management are mixed: between 2010 and 2012, the


open budget index computed by the International Budget Partnership improved from 38 percent to 58 percent. But the CPIA quality of budgetary and financial management rating remained flat during 2009-12. Procurement documentation and rules improved, but there is no information on procurement performance.

25. The Bank's Second Project for Improvement of Financial Reporting and Auditing (PIFRA-II)and its additional financing contributed to the financial management results by financing systems and capacity building to the Auditor General and the Comptroller General. Bank AAA (federal, provincial, and sector expenditure reviews) provided input to the federal and provincial (KP and Punjab government). The World Bank provided the federal and provincial governments with input on procurement management through lending and non-lending services.

26. Enhanced Capacity and Accountability in Public Sector Management. Partially Achieved.Indicators of progress in public sector management capacity and accountability are mixed. Most broadly, the score for institutions calculated by the World Economic Forum (WEF) declined by 11.8 percent, reducing Pakistan's rank from 104 (133 countries) to 123 (148 countries). While the rank in Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index improved somewhat from 139 out of 180 countries in 2009 to 127 out of 175 countries in 2013, the Bank's Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) for public sector management and institutions remained unchanged. The CPSCR did not provide information on the development of a strategy for improving effectiveness of accountability institutions.

27. The Bank's FY07 Punjab Land Records Management and Information Systems (LRMIS)Project and its FY13 Additional Financing resulted in good customer satisfaction with the operation of service centers in delivering land records. The KP/FATA Governance Reform Project yielded good progress, including preparation of anti-corruption and right to public services and local governance legislation. The FY13 Punjab Public Management Reform Program had not produced outcomes yet, but efforts are underway to improve information and grievance resolution. A number of AAA (most importantly the FY13 Revamping Governance report) targeted governance policy issues at the federal level. Analysis and advice on governance also covered SOEs and the KP Province.

28. Strengthened Governance of Markets. Partially Achieved. This objective was aligned withthe PRSP. The intended use of a market-responsive private sector as the main engine of growth was later confirmed by the 2011 FEG strategy to which the CPS Progress Report anchored this objective. Indicators suggest deterioration in this area. WEF's overall competiveness score declined by 5.7 percent from 2009/10 to 2013/14, reducing Pakistan's rank from 101 (133 countries) to 133 (148 countries). In particular, more businesses reported access to finance problems and the labor and trade environments became more restrictive. The total number of microfinance borrowers increased. The GoP did not implement its FEG strategy.

29. The completed several AAA activities that covered the private sector development, includinginvestment climate and doing business, exports and trade, regulatory institutions, the insolvency regime and microfinance. Furthermore, the Bank provided input to the GoP's Private Sector Development Task Force that issued its report in 2010. In micro finance IFC reached its sole verifiable quantitative development outcome target in the CPS of a 35 percent growth of the number of borrowers relative to the 2010 baseline of 1.8 million. The target was met with loans to 572,112 borrowers (including many women and clients in rural areas) through IFC's portfolio of microfinance banks. IFC's GTFP helped to strengthen financial markets since its guarantee program covered all the major private banks that together provide financing for approximately 80 percent of the country's trade flows. IEG's Evaluation of the IFC's GTFP in 2006-12 acknowledged that GTFP had high additionality in countries like Pakistan where the banking sector has also been perceived as high-risk due to poor credit quality, concerns over political interference in loan recovery, and political and macroeconomic instability. IFC advisory services focused on SME banking, rural finance, corporate governance and capacity building, sometimes linked to IFC investments, and on investment climate issues. It exceeded its targets on numbers of new projects, but not always on development outcomes.

30. IEG rates the outcome of the WBG assistance under Pillar I as unsatisfactory. Three outcomeswere partially achieved and two were not achieved. One of the latter (Strengthened Tax Policy and


Administration) was among the three "transformational activities" to which the CPS gave special focus.

Pillar II: Improved Human Development and Reduced Vulnerability

31. Pillar II sought improved equitable access to quality education; reduced vulnerability througheffective safety nets; enhanced delivery of health, nutrition and population services; and enhanced rural livelihoods.

32. Improved Equitable Access to Quality Education. Partially Achieved. Pakistan's schoolenrollment challenge remained daunting, with only modest progress during the part of the CPS period that has data (2009-2012). The Primary Net Enrollment Rate (NER) increased little, from 71.5 percent in 2009 to 72.5 in 2012. The Secondary NER increased more, from 33.2 percent to 36.1 percent. And gross tertiary enrollment increased from 6.6 percent to 9.5 percent. There was mixed progress towards gender equity. The gender gap declined in primary, increased in secondary and was almost closed in tertiary. It declined for rural girls. No data is available on progress in educational achievement or access to quality education.

33. The Bank contributed to primary education with provincial education projects in Punjab, Sindhand Balochistan. Two projects in Punjab helped increase the overall primary NER from 71 percent in 2008/09 to 74 percent in 2011/12 and the primary NER for girls from 65 percent to 69 percent, both above targets. Similar goals in Sindh were not achieved. The Balochistan Girls' Education Project has not reported any outcomes yet. The FY10 Higher Education Support Program helped increase enrollment in Science and engineering, in the number of PhD Graduates, and in publication rates. The FY11 Emergency Job Training for Vulnerable Youth surpassed its target of number of youth trained. Several AAA covered education quality issues, gender, enrollment (Balochistan), learning, conditional transfers, and technical and vocational education. IFC implemented a business management skills training programs for science/technical graduates, farmers and SME managers, but plans to invest into 2 private sector networks did not materialize.

34. Reduced Vulnerability Through Effective Safety Nets. Mostly Achieved. Pakistan initiated itsBISP (Benazir Income Support Programme) Safety Net Program in 2008. It is one of the four major institutions providing direct income transfers in Pakistan. It expanded benefit outlays to 5.1 million beneficiary households today, still below the 2012 CSP target of 7.0 million, but plans to expand to 7.7 million in the coming months. Its targeting to the poor improved through implementation of a proxy means test-based targeting instrument, the Poverty Score Card, in 98 percent of the country's districts. Furthermore, cash transfers under the Citizen's Damage Compensation Program (CDCP) benefited 1.2 million families affected by floods in the KP, Sindh, Punjab, Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir provinces. This exceeded the 1.0 million target set forth in the CSP Progress Report.

35. Two Bank projects supported Pakistan's cash transfers to the poor outlined above. The FY10Social Safety Net Development Policy Credit (plus FY11 additional financing) helped establish the policy framework for an efficient national safety net system. Since 2009, the Bank's Social Safety Net Technical Assistance Project assisted the BISP in implementing the Poverty Score Card to objectively identify the poor as program beneficiaries, and to set up a unified targeting registry for the country. The FY11 Emergency Cash Transfer Project helped implement the CDCP by financing the grants and strengthening its management and M&E. IFC also provided emergency support to its agribusiness and microfinance clients to withstand the effects of the floods. Furthermore, several Bank AAA addressed Social Safety Net Issues, including two social protection reports that focused on design of cash transfers and on consolidation and integration of the various social protection instruments and a review of the BISP. More specific AAA focused on the medium-term and the indirect effects of conditional task transfers.

36. Enhanced Delivery of Health, Nutrition and Population Services. Partially Achieved. Thisobjective was aligned with the human development pillar of the PRSP II. Information on health service provision is outdated, with most data available only until 2011. The CPSCR reports that polio immunization coverage of targeted accessible populations increased from 93 percent to 95 percent and that the coverage of HIV/AIDS prevention, care, and treatment services was below target in Punjab. Overall antiretroviral coverage increased from 11 percent in 2009 to 14 percent in 2012. From


the available information, it is not possible to ascertain whether overall health, nutrition and population services improved or deteriorated.

37. The World Bank's FY10 Third partnership for Polio Eradication Project contributed to theimmunization results reported above. The Punjab Health Sector reform Project only became effective in October 2013 and has not had outcomes yet. AAA provided health sector performance and expenditure reviews that have been used in the Bank's dialogue with the Federal and provincial governments. IFC studied private sector opportunities in health, but found limited potential for investment.

38. Enhanced Rural Livelihoods. Achieved. This objective was aligned with the PRSP II Pillaron Increasing Productivity and Value Addition in Agriculture, where the bulk of the poor are, and more specifically with support programs that mobilize rural households into community organizations to obtain infrastructure, training, insurance, and credit; and with Pakistan's Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF), the government's interface to provide funds to community organizations . The CSP indicator points to increased market access established by the community organizations and livelihood training and productive assets received by families and individuals from those organizations. These are inputs that may have improved rural livelihoods. However, recent data or assessments on how these efforts may have contributed to increase rural incomes are limited. A recent assessment suggests that the impact of one of the activities (microcredit) was small, albeit statistically significant. And international evidence suggests that access to rural roads may have a significant impact on incomes. Furthermore, the CPSCR reports on a survey showing that PPAF beneficiaries' incomes increased 178 percent over the period 2008-12 while non-beneficiaries' rose by only 41 percent over the same period.

39. The Bank contributed to this outcome through the pre-existing FY09 Third PPAF Project. Bymid-2013, the project and its predecessors had constructed or improved 1,200 km or rural roads, provided $18.7 million in microcredit (including to 185,000 new borrowers), and provided new productive assets to 38,000 households.

40. IEG rates the outcome of the WBG assistance under Pillar II as moderately satisfactory. Oneoutcome was achieved, one mostly achieved, and two partially achieved.

Pillar III: Improving Infrastructure to Support Growth

41. Pillar III sought increased power provision and increased efficiency and reliability of energysupply; improved efficiency and reliability of the transport and logistics network; strengthened irrigation infrastructure and agricultural competitiveness; improved urban/municipal infrastructure and services; and environmental sustainability for better health outcomes and improved competitiveness.

42. Increased Power Provision and Increased Efficiency and Reliability of Energy Supply.Not Achieved. This objective was linked to the PRSP II's Integrated Energy Development pillar, which sought to help meet the strong growth in energy demand. Furthermore, under the New Framework for Economic Growth PSD depended on resolution of the energy crisis. Data is available only through 2011 and indicates flat electricity production with a declining share from gas and a constant share from hydroelectric sources. With increased demand, load shedding worsened from 30 percent to 33 percent of peak demand. Transmission and distribution losses declined from 19.7 percent of output in 2009 to 16.9 percent in 2011. More recent data is unavailable. Gas losses increased from 10 percent to 13 percent in 2013. Although the dependence of power companies on budget subsidies continued, some companies improved profits.

43. The Bank's FY08 Electricity Distribution and Transmission Project (FY08) achieved someprogress, below CPS targets, in electricity supply, customers served, and reduction of losses. The FY12 Natural Gas Efficiency Project and Tarbela IV Extension Project (FY12) have not had impacts yet. IFC's net commitments in energy amounted to $413 million and with MIGA guarantees they reached $430 million by 2014. Some of these investments were found mostly unsuccessful by IEG (e.g., the sole privatized utility in Pakistan). The thermal power project consisting of development, construction and operation of a combined cycle dual fuel -- gas and high sulpher diesel (HSD) -- power plant has shown very good economic and financial results, excellent environmental and social outcomes, as well as PSD indicators. IEG rated another the energy project highly successful. Bank AAA covered power sector policy issues (e.g., in Pakistan - The Transformative Path and SOE


Reform: Time for Serious Corporate governance, the 2013 CEM), with recommendations focusing on reducing losses, corporatizing and privatizing energy companies, and rationalizing power tariffs. IFC AS privatization mandates are yet to materialize. The last privatization in the country occurred in 2007.

44. Improved Efficiency and Reliability of the Transport and Logistics Network. PartiallyAchieved. The WBG's focus on transport was aligned both with one of the two central elements of the PRSP II's infrastructure pillar (transport and trade) and with the GoP's 2011 FEG. Data on progress in infrastructure is mixed. On the one hand, the WEF's business survey suggests that inadequate infrastructure was more of a problem for businesses in 2013 than it was in 2009; this is reflected in a decline of 24.1 in the WEF infrastructure score. Nevertheless, it appears that some areas improved. The Bank's quality of trade and transport-related infrastructure index improved by 13.5 percent from 2007 to 2012 and its overall logistics index by 8.0 percent. Pakistan has now a higher percentage of paved roads and a longer road network. And container port traffic and WEF's quality of port infrastructure index both increased substantially.

45. The Bank's contributed to the better roads conditions indicated above. Its Highway RehabilitationProject led to reduced road roughness, travel time, and accident rates. But the FY09 Trade and Transport Facilitation II, a pre-existing project, does not show any results yet. The FY10 Karachi Port Improvement Project does not show outcomes so far as berths are not yet operational, although there are indications of interim progress. IFC approved 5 investments in the transport sector. Only two investment projects are currently performing well: two container terminals were rated successful by IEG. Two investments were cancelled due to failures by IFC clients to meet disbursement conditions. Another international bulk terminal project is still pending for its first IFC loan disbursement. IFC's trade logistics project in the Pakistan - India border crossing took off the ground only a year ago and it is yet to see its development outcomes come to fruition. In AAA, an assessment of transport and trade covered the poverty, social, and environmental aspects associated with trade and transport sector reforms aimed at increasing the freight transport sector's productivity to meet the GoP's FEG goals. Other transport related AAA covered sector M&E, mining and regional integration, and trade facilitation.

46. Strengthened Irrigation Infrastructure and Agricultural Competitiveness. PartiallyAchieved. The CPS sought to achieve this objective through increased equity in water distribution, increased expenditures on irrigation operations and maintenance (O&M) and expanded use of improved crop and animal husbandry techniques. The CPSCR did not report achievements with respect to the overall country objective. At the country level, the average agricultural cereal yield made slow progress (1.5 percent from 2009 to 2012) and may reflect improved techniques. Country level data on irrigation is not available. Similarly, recent Bank AAA reports sluggish growth of agricultural productivity. But the CPSCR reports much higher increases in some crops and areas. These may reflect both the introduction of improved crop techniques as well as higher cropping intensities in those cases. No data is available on animal husbandry techniques or on agricultural competitiveness trends.

47. Three pre-existing Bank projects in Sindh and Balochistan achieved progress in waterconveyance efficiency, but operation and maintenance, and cost recovery data were not available. Two new projects in Punjab do not yet show outcomes. IFC has demonstrated satisfactory outcomes in 2 agribusiness investment projects: in a rice export company and in a plastic producer ($7.5 million), rated successful and mostly successful respectively by IEG. IEG could not evaluate IFC’s two agribusiness-related activities because its access to project information was denied. PPP advisories in grain silos have not been rated yet. Several AAA covered water management and irrigation, agricultural productivity and competitiveness, and agricultural policy.

48. Improved Urban/Municipal Infrastructure and Services. Mostly Achieved. The CPSCRreports some progress in overall urban access to water and sanitation. CPS indicators of progress are partial, as they cover primarily selected municipalities within Punjab and the five largest cities of the province and refer to management practices, not actual improvements in services. These suggest that progress was made to varying degrees in water supply, street lighting, solid waste management, and web-based performance management.

49. The Bank's FY06 Punjab Municipal Services Improvement Project contributed to the resultsoutlined above by providing support to municipalities on capacity building and service delivery. The


Walled City of Lahore Cultural Heritage Project is helping restore historic urban fabrics and cultural heritage assets in Punjab's capital. Furthermore, the Bank also provided Punjab-specific AAA support on water supply and sanitation services. IFC's AS project on waste paper supply chain was successfully rated by the Development Impact Unit (CDI).

50. Environmental Sustainability for Better Health Outcomes and ImprovedCompetitiveness. Partially Achieved. This objective was aligned with the PRSP II, which envisaged environmental sustainability as a cross-cutting theme. The GoP launched a National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) in February 2013 but implementation has not yet started. Accordingly, there is little progress on the ground towards this objective.

51. The Bank engaged in several AAA on environmental issues during the CPS period. Athorough report just prior to the CPS spelled out in detail a Bank program that sought to build an environmental constituency and capability to address Pakistan's environmental problems. This was followed by AAA on industry, transport, urban pollution, and provincial (Sindh) issues, as well as environmental work in important projects (e.g., the Environmental Assessment of the Tarbela IV Hydropower Project). It is likely that these contributed to the analysis and awareness that resulted in Pakistan's NCCP issued last year and informed efforts in selected agencies. IFC investments in renewables (hydro, wind, waste-to-energy) as well as in a green code office tower project are relatively new or experienced implementation delays. None of these projects have been evaluated by IEG. After an unsuccessful project in wind power, IFC Advisory Services shifted to other types of renewables. Pakistan is looking for best practices at the regional level (with 5 other countries of MENA).

52. IEG rates the outcome of the WBG assistance under Pillar III as Moderately Unsatisfactory.One outcome was mostly achieved, three outcomes were partially achieved and one not achieved.

Pillar IV: Improving Security and Reducing the Threat of Conflict

53. Pillar IV sought increased employment and livelihood opportunities in conflict affected areas;and increased responsiveness and effectiveness of the State.

54. Increased Employment and Livelihood Opportunities in Conflict Affected Areas. PartiallyAchieved. This objective was aligned with one of the strategic objectives ("stimulate employment and livelihood opportunities") set forth in the Post-Crisis Needs Assessment (PCNA) for KP and FATA that the ADB, EU, UN, and the Bank completed in September, 2010 under the GoP's leadership. There is no indication of whether KP and FATA resulted in increased employment and livelihood opportunities at the end of the CPS period. The last KP MDG report (2011) indicates an increase in headcount poverty ratio from 29 percent in 2005/06 to 39 percent in 2009/10. Recent per-capita GDP growth may have helped reduce poverty, but more recent direct poverty estimates are not available.

55. Two of the four WBG projects that targeted this objective had outcomes. The FY12 EconomicRevitalization of KP and FATA Project provided 587small businesses with rehabilitation grants that generated 1428 direct and 4284 indirect jobs. The project provided a total of 9 grants to female SME owners (against a target of 26). The FY12 FATA Rural Livelihoods and Community Infrastructure Project provided 889 farmers with assets and inputs.

56. Increased Responsiveness and Effectiveness of the State. Partially achieved. Thisobjective was aligned with another objective set forth in the PCNA ("build responsiveness and effectiveness of the state to restore citizen trust"). KP and FATA established and staffed units to implement PCNA recommendations for response but did not yet design its multi-year program. The other CPS indicators of responsiveness and effectiveness were limited to health and mobility objectives. They do not cover other PCNA objectives (e.g., education) which would result from improved governance of crisis response arrangements. Access to health services did not increase and there are no indications of enhanced inter-district access. A road may have improved mobility in one district (Swat), although evidence of this is not yet available.

57. The WBG contributed to this objective through its input into the preparation of the PCNAand through its MDTF governance reform, FATA and KP road projects. The PCNA and the MDTF governance reform project were instrumental in making response to the crisis operational but not yet


in developing KP's and FATA's long-term program. The road built under the Bank's KP road project may have contributed to improve mobility. The FATA road project has not yet produced new access to roads.

58. IEG rates the outcome of the WBG assistance under Pillar IV as moderately unsatisfactory. Itstwo objectives were partially achieved.

Objectives CPSCR Rating IEG Rating Pillar I: Improved Governance and Performance of Public Sector

Moderately Unsatisfactory Unsatisfactory

Pillar II: Improved Human Development and Reduced Vulnerability

Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory

Pillar III: Improving Infrastructure to Support Growth

Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory

Pillar IV: Improving Security and Reducing the Threat of Conflict

Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory

4. Overall IEG Assessment

CPSCR Rating IEG Rating

Overall Outcome: Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory

WBG Performance: Good Fair

Overall outcome:

59. IEG rates the outcome of WBG support moderately unsatisfactory. IEG rated two of the fourpillars as moderately unsatisfactory, one as unsatisfactory and one as moderately satisfactory. IEG rated Pillar I on improving economic governance as unsatisfactory, with three outcomes partially achieved, and two not achieved; Pillar II on improving human development and social protection as moderately satisfactory, with one outcome achieved, one mostly achieved, and two partially achieved; Pillar III on improving infrastructure as moderately unsatisfactory, with one outcome mostly achieved, three outcomes partially achieved and one not achieved; and Pillar IV as moderately unsatisfactory, with two partially achieved outcomes. Outcomes achieved or mostly achieved covered safety nets; rural livelihoods; and urban services. Outcomes partially achieved covered public expenditure; public sector management; governance of markets; access to education, health, nutrition and population services; transport and logistics; irrigation and agriculture; environmental sustainability employment and livelihood opportunities in conflict affected areas, and responsiveness and effectiveness of the state in conflict areas. Other outcomes were not achieved.

WBG Performance:

60. IEG rates WBG performance as fair, lower than the good rating assigned by the CPSCRbecause the results framework was weak, the program's contribution to CPS objectives was uneven with weaknesses in several areas, and actual collaboration with IFC was also weak. Bank performance benefited from designing a program that: addressed several of Pakistan's key development challenges; was well aligned with the country's development program as reflected in the PRSP II; included development policy lending to support needed reforms in areas such as fiscal and energy policies; and had good potential synergy with the IFC. The CPS included AAA that focused particularly on governance, a central area that needed improvement in order to achieve development outcomes. Design suffered from a weak results framework with inadequate indicators to measure objectives. Furthermore, the program had uneven success in contributing to the CPS objectives. The CPS may have overestimated the expected returns of the program, particularly with the poor record of the previous CAS suggesting that government commitment to the program was weak in many areas.


Several of the projects approved during the CPS period as well a few from the pre-existing portfolio have not demonstrated any outcomes yet. Although good supervision helped reduce the share of projects at risk, the share of those projects in total commitments increased. In spite of many agreed areas of cooperation between the Bank and IFC (PPPs in power and transport, Doing Business investment climate improvements, use of Bank's guarantee instruments in IFC investment in energy, IDA back-stop financing for IFC risk sharing facility with commercial banks) synergies were hard to attain within the World Bank Group because parallel financing between IFC and World Bank proved problematic due to different time lines and operating procedures. Collaboration between WB and IFC was slow, but improving over the CPS period: it was not until 2012 IFC and WB management looked into a more systematic and country-level approach to collaboration across institutions, and by FY14 the Bank and IFC finally committed to improve coordination between the two institutions, leading to better exchange of information at the sector and task team levels. The availability of several AAA reports suggests good dissemination of the Bank's work.

5. Assessment of CPS Completion Report

61. The CPS Completion Report is comprehensive and well-written. It has a good focus onobjectives and has attempted to fill in better the gaps left by the inadequate CPS indicators of achievement. It provides better evidence of the Bank’s contribution as the CPS designed indicators that in many areas were reflective of this contribution rather than descriptive of the objectives. It covers IFC activities well for both investment and advisory service operations, but the report was short on how and to what extent individual IFC projects contributed to CPS objectives. There is only one verifiable IFC target in the CPS which has been achieved (in microfinance). All other IFC targets in the CPS are based on number of projects. Use of such targets, as acknowledged in the CPSCR, has made IFC input into the formulation of CPS outcomes and milestones not evident.

6. Findings and Lessons

62. Of the several CPSCR lessons, the assessment highlights three: the contribution of donorcoordination to unifying messages on long-term issues (e.g., energy); the increased focus of sectors and instruments on CPS goals that can be achieved under a simpler results framework that is more actively monitored and used for program adjustments; and the pay-off that persistent engagement on key activities, even during difficult times, can have on results. To these, this assessment adds that the Bank is likely to improve results if it addresses more systematically political economy considerations in selecting a support program with fair chances of being implemented.

Annexes 15 CPSCR Review

Independent Evaluation Group

Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives

Annex Table 2: IBRD Lending: Actual and Planned Lending (FY10-FY14)

Annex Table 3: Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY10-14 (US$ million)

Annex Table 4: Analytical and Advisory Work for Pakistan (FY10-FY14)

Annex Table 5: IEG Ratings for Pakistan, FY10-14

Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Pakistan and Comparators (Exit FY10-14)

Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status Indicators for Pakistan and Comparators, FY10-14

Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Pakistan and Comparators, FY10-14 (US$ million)

Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Pakistan, FY10-14 (US$ million)

Annex Table 10: Investments approved pre-FY10, but active during FY10-13

Annex Table 11: Investment approved during the CPS Period (FY10-13)

Annex Table 12: Annex Table 11: Advisory Services Approved and Active in FY10-13 (US$’000)

Annex Table 13: IFC Net Commitment Activity Table

Annex Table 14: IFC Original Commitment Activity Table

Annex Table 15: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Pakistan

Annex Table 16: Economic and Social Indicators for Pakistan, 2010-2014

Annex Table 17: Pakistan - Millennium Development Goals

Annexes 17


Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives

CPS FY10-FY14: Pillar I –

Improved Governance and Performance of the Public

Sector

Actual Results (as of current month/year) Comments

Major Outcome Measures

1. CPS Objective 1: Improved Macroeconomic Management Indicator: Fiscal deficit target (including grants) Baseline: 6.6 % of GDP in 2010/11 Target:≤ 5.5 % in 2013/14

Fiscal deficit estimated at 8.0% of GDP in 2012-13 and projected to be at 7.8% in 2013-14 (IMF Article IV baseline scenario with IMF 2013-14 revised program target of 5.2%).

Source: CPSCR Indicator revised at CPSPR

2. CPS Objective 2: Strengthened Tax Policy and Administration Indicator: Federal Tax to GDP ratio improved to at least 10% of GDP (from 9.4% of GDP in 2010/11) by 2013/14 Baseline: 9.4% of GDP in 2010/11 Target: at least 10% of GDP in 2013/14

Tax revenue to GDP ratio estimated at 9.7 % in 2012-13 and is projected at 9.8% in 2013-14 by IMF Article IV in baseline scenarios (IMF revised program target for 2013-14 is 10.6%).


3. CPS Objective 3: Strengthened Public Expenditure, Financial and Procurement Management Indicator: Medium Term Budget Framework (MTBF) functional at the federal level and launched at the provincial level

MTBF is being implemented in all federal ministries. All frameworks, budgets and strategies prepared at the federal level are ratified by the Cabinet on an annual basis. MTBF implemented in KPK since 2011 (with initial DFID support).Annual budgets and strategies are prepared and ratified by the cabinet on a regular basis. MTBF introduced in Punjab but not sustained following initial ADB support. The implementation of MTBF is being piloted in Sindh. Performance budgeting was initiated in the provinces of Sindh and Punjab but this ended following initial donor support.

Source: CPSCR

Indicator: Increased timeliness of government financial data: in-year reports within 10 days of month-end; year-end reports within 3 months of year-end

Civil accounts are prepared within 10 days of month-end (compared to 15-20 in 2010) while year-end accounts are prepared within 2 months of end of fiscal year (compared to over 2 months in 2010).

Source: CPSCR

Indicator: Improved quality and timeliness of government audits: audit reports consistent with ISA completed within 7 months of year-end

Audit reports, consistent with ISA completed within 8 months (compared to over 8 months in 2010).

Source: CPSCR

Indicator: Inclusion of new Bank lending in FMIS for real time entries leading to improved accuracy of accounts

Use of country system target achieved. A total of 14 WB projects have been brought onto the FMIS system.

Source: CPSCR Indicator introduced at CPSPR

4. CPS Objective 4: Enhanced Capacity and Accountability in Public Sector Management Indicator: Strategy developed for improving effectiveness of institutions of accountability such as Ombudsman, Public Accounts

Four main benchmarks achieved or on track to support institutions of accountability: - Right to Information (RTI) in KPK, represents international

best practice. Punjab draft in process. Action plans

Source: CPSCR

Annexes 18


CPS FY10-FY14: Pillar I –

Improved Governance and Performance of the Public

Sector


Committee, Auditor General

developed for implementing RTI at federal and subnational levels.

- Anti-corruption legislation, Right to Public Services and local governance legislation underway in KPK

- Citizens’ feedback and grievance redress mechanism adopted at a large scale in Punjab and KPK.

- Two innovations - leveraging cell phones to seek feedback from citizens and using smart phones to enhance internal monitoring - are in use at scale in the Punjab and KPK.

Indicator: Improved land records service delivery, as measured by number of districts / tehsils with operating service centers in Punjab (at least 10 centers by June 2014); and issuance of fard (land record extract) in less than 30 minutes at a service center.

A total of 60 Land Records Service Centers operational; 30 min service adhered to; and customer satisfaction over 95%. In addition, land records data entry completed for approximately 60% of Punjab; data verification and quality control in progress. Roughly 10% of Punjab fully converted to new digital system.


5. CPS Objective 5: Strengthened Governance of Markets Indicator: Labor market flexibility enhanced as measured by business surveys and private sector opens up

Pakistan’s score in the Doing Business rankings fell from 77 in 2009 to 110 in 2013. In addition, Pakistan’s rating on the Global Competitiveness Survey declined from the 70th percentile in 2008 to the 82nd percentile in 2012.

Source: CPSCR

Indicator: Reduced anti-export bias resulting from trade restrictions as measured by the average MFN tariff.

Latest data on Overall Trade Restrictiveness Index indicates increase in protection (9.9 in 2010 vs. 9.0 in 2004) and calculations of Effective Rates of Protection confirm anti-export bias. The CPSCR reports that the budget support operation to leverage reforms in this area did not materialize.

Source: CPSCR

Indicator: New Government Growth Strategy and implementation plan for private sector led growth adopted by Government

Pakistan’s Framework for Economic Growth, emphasizing private sector led growth, developed by the Planning Commission and adopted by the Cabinet in July 2011. However, it could not be fully implemented for lack of ownership and ensuing political transition.


Indicator: Increase in number of active borrowers by 35% relative to baseline (1.8 million borrowers) Baseline: 1.8 million borrowers Target: 2.43 million borrowers

According to the numbers reported by the industry (www.mixmarket.org/mfi/country/Pakistan and www.microfinanceconnect.info/publications/category/Microwatch), there were 2.80 million active borrowers as of fourth quarter 2013.

Source: CPSCR and Industry data.

CPS FY10-FY1: Pillar II –

Improved Human Development and Reduced

Vulnerability



6. CPS Objective 6: Improved Equitable Access to Quality Education Services at Primary, Secondary and Tertiary level

Indicator: Primary NER in Punjab Baseline: 71% in 2008/09

According to PLSM data, primary NER (ages 6-10) in Punjab increased to 74% in 2011/12.


http://www.mixmarket.org/mfi/country/Pakistan

http://www.microfinanceconnect.info/publications/category/Microwatch

Annexes 19




Vulnerability


Target:73% 2013/14. Indicator: Primary NER in Punjab for rural girls (6-10 years) Baseline: 63% in 2008/09 Target: 65% in 2013/14.

Primary NER in rural Punjab for girls in rural areas (aged 6-10) increased to 69%.


Indicator: Primary NER in Sindh Baseline: 64% in 2008/09 Target: 66% in 2013/14

Primary NER in Sindh fell from 64% to 59%.


Indicator: Primary NER in Sindh for rural girls (6-10 years) Baseline: 46% in 2008/09 Target: 48% in 2013/14

Primary girls NER (ages 5-9) in rural Sindh decreased from 46% in 2008-09 to 41%.

Source: CPSCR Indicator revised at CPSPR The CPSCR does not report on the exact same indicator proposed at the CPSCR (girls aged 5-9 years vs. girls aged 6-10 years).

Indicator: Tertiary GER Baseline: 4% Target: 6%

GER at the tertiary level not available, ISR data suggest an increase of 174,000 (38%) students attending HEI’s between 2011 and 2013, which suggests GER increases achieved.

Source: CPSCR

Indicator: Percent of trainees of the youth development program who are employed and / or enrolled in continuing education three months after completion of training. Baseline:28% in FY2010 Target: 40% by FY2014

Data on training and placement is not yet available on the Sindh Skills Development Project (SSDP) as training is scheduled to start in December 2013. Employment rate of JSDF financed trainees reached 35% in 2013.


7. CPS Objective 7: Reduced Vulnerability Through Effective Safety Nets Indicator: Number of families covered by social safety nets increases to 7 million by 2012.

The CPSCR reports that 4.9 million families were covered. The families not covered were in the process of updating their CNIC, which will allow them to be included in the program and raise the coverage to more than 7.2 million.

Source: CPSCR

Indicator: Improved targeting of safety nets programs.

Poverty scorecard (PSC) has been implemented in 98% of the country (except 2 agencies in FATA), covering 27 million households against a target of coverage in 80% of the districts in the country. Targeting performance of safety nets increased from about 40% to over 65%.

Source: CPSCR The indicator proposed lacked baseline and target.

Indicator: At least one million flood affected families received cash transfers.

A total of 1.2 million flood affected families received cash transfers.


Indicator: Improved response and coordination capacities,

The Government of Balochistan has developed and is implementing SOPs in the field of

Source: CPSCR

Annexes 20




Vulnerability


through SOPs, emergency protocols etc., for DRM institutions at the Federal level and in at least one Province.

disaster response and management, Disaster Management Information System (DMIS) and Community-Based Disaster Response Mechanisms (CBDRM).

Indicator introduced at CPSPR

8. CPS Objective 8: Enhanced Delivery of Health, Nutrition and Population Services [Partially Achieved] Indicator: Prevalence of children 0-6 months exclusively breastfed increased by 15%.

Indicator dropped at CPSPR as interventions that were supposed to influence the outcome indicator were dropped.

Indicator: Contraceptive prevalence rate increased to 35%.

Indicator dropped at CPSPR

Indicator: HIV/AIDS prevention, care and treatment services provided to 70% of target groups in Punjab

HIV/AIDs Punjab health operation only became effective in October 2013.


Indicator: Polio vaccine coverage is at least 90% in the targeted accessible populations in all high risk districts

OPV coverage in the targeted accessible populations in all high-risk districts currently stands at 95 percent against a baseline of 93 percent. Total immunized with OPV by May 2013 - 652.86 million. Polio cases reduced from 144 in 2011 to 24 in 2013.


9. CPS Objective 9: Enhanced Rural Livelihoods Indicator: Expanded use of farmer and community organizations to link producers to markets (at least 20% of federated organizations report effective linkages with market and private sector built).

The CPSCR reports that 22% of federated organizations successfully established links with markets and line departments.

Source: CPSCR

CPS FY10-FY1: Pillar III –

Improved Infrastructure to Support Private Sector Investment and Growth



10. CPS Objective 10: Increased Power Provision and Increased Efficiency and Reliability of Energy Supply Indicator: Losses in electricity expected to reduce from 22% to 20%; and unaccounted for gas expected to reduce from 10% to 9%.

Power losses declined to approximately 21% in 2011 (last year available); gas losses increased to 13% in 2013.


Indicator: Load shedding in power sector presently at 30% of peak demand not worsening; gas load shedding not worsening.

Power and load shedding situation increased reaching approximately 33% of peak demand.


Indicator: Improved financial viability: (a) zero budget support for tariff subsidies; and (b) real Rate of Return on Investments remains positive

Financial viability has continued to worsen with tariff subsidies remaining at 2% of GDP. Rate of return on private investments in this sector are positive; estimates from the experience of the Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) reveal that annual profits


Annexes 21





increased by 156 percent in the year 2012-13. 11. CPS Objective 11: Improved Efficiency and Reliability of the Transport and Logistics Network Indicator: Transit time of containers from Karachi Port to Lahore reduced from 11 days to 6 days at end of CPS period. Baseline: 11 days Target: 6 days end of CPS period

The outcome cannot be measured before completion of project construction activities at the Karachi Port and ii) institutional strengthening as part of WB support. Two proxy indicators measure interim progress: i) berth occupancy rates, which have fallen from 74 percent in 2010 to 51 percent in 2013; and, ii) ship turn-around time, which currently stands at 80.64 hours or 3 days and 9 hours, consistent with transit time goals.

Source: CPSCR

Indicator: A railway revitalization strategy developed including an emergency plan for keeping railways operational and afloat while the longer term actions are started.

Railway Revitalization Strategy has been developed but it is yet to be ratified and implemented by the Government.


12. CPS Objective 12: Strengthened Irrigation Infrastructure and Agricultural Competitiveness Indicator: Improved equity in water distribution as measured by delivery performance ratio from 0.4 to 0.6 (with perfect equity equaling 1.0). Baseline: 0.4 Target: 0.6

Equity cannot be measured until on-going investments completed. Operations in Sindh and Punjab show evidence of increased channel conveyance efficiency –from baseline value of 52 percent to 71 percent at present. Ratio of available water to estimated demand has improved from 39% to 59%.


Indicator: O&M spending increased by 20%, and cost recovery is increased by 10%.

O&M and cost recovery data not available until investments completed.

Source: CPSCR

Indicator: Expanded use of improved techniques for crop production and animal husbandry.

Improved techniques for crop production have been introduced in Punjab. These include: a) A total of 1,190 laser levelling units provided to farmers; b) High efficiency irrigation systems (HEIS) introduced on approximately 9,500 acres; c) A total of 1,594 water courses improved; d) 130 road shows organized to demonstrate HEIS; e) 21 professional training courses organized on HEIS; f) A total of 55 technical courses on the maintenance of laser levelling machines organized.

No data on improved animal husbandry techniques.

Source: CPSCR The indicator proposed was not specific and lacked baseline and target.

13. CPS Objective 13: Improved Urban/Municipal Infrastructure and Services Indicator: Improved urban planning and management implemented in 38 select municipalities of Punjab. Initiation of improvement in urban management through improved operational procedures and systems in metro governments of five large

Improved urban planning and management in select Punjab municipalities (TMAs) as indicated by the following: In 11 TMAs, 53% of the households connected with water supply schemes (baseline 40%). In 105 TMAs, 73 percent of the street lights in functioning condition (baseline70%). In 105 TMAs, 74% of solid waste disposed per day at landfill sites (baseline 0). Web-based performance

Source: CPSCR Indicator revised at CPSPR The CPSCR does not report on whether initiation of improvement in urban management in metro governments of five large

Annexes 22





cities of Punjab.

management systems operationalized in 105 TMAs, with real-time, province-wide data available at TMA level

cities of Punjab occurred.

14. CPS Objective 14: Environmental Sustainability for Better Health Outcomes and Improved Competitiveness

Indicator: Pakistan’s ranking for “stringency of environmental regulations” in the Global Competitiveness Reports improved (from 68/131 to 66/131).

Indicator dropped at CPSPR owing to limited interventions to influence the target.

Indicator: As a result of the Bank‘s analytical work with Pakistan Environment Protection Agency (EPA), Planning Commission, Ministry of Industries and Environment and GoSindh, policy recommendations will be available to the Government for adoption and furthering environmental management debate in the country.

Policy recommendations delivered to 4 counterpart agencies. Engagement sustained in all but Ministry of Industries.

Source: CPSCR Indicator introduced at CPSPR The indicator was not specific.

Indicator: National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation designed and under implementation.

The National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) was prepared, approved by federal cabinet in 2012 and launched in February 2013.

Source: CPSCR

CPS FY10-FY1: Pillar IV – Improving Security and Reducing the Threat of

Conflict



15. CPS Objective 15: Increased Employment and Livelihood Opportunities in Conflict Affected Areas Indicator: Economic recovery in targeted regions by creating sustainable employment opportunities through rehabilitation of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), investment mobilization, and institutional capacity building. At least 2000 jobs/employment (direct and indirect) generated in enterprises supported by the MDTF project.

The Economic Revitalization of KP and FATA (ERKF) has extended support to 587 SMEs (out of a projected total of 850) for upgrading, rehabilitation and business development services. A total of 9 grants have been provided to female SME owners (against a target of 26 or 3 percent of the projected total). In addition, the project has thus far created an estimated 1428 direct and 4284 indirect jobs against the joint target of 2000.


Indicator: Supporting small scale community infrastructure and livelihoods opportunities for the local communities in targeted areas through grants, skills development and market linkages. Selected villages in targeted Tehsils of FATA benefit from asset development

Livelihood grants target achieved. In FATA, the Bank has supported 889 farmers with livelihoods support. This support is channeled through the mobilization of 237 community organizations that have helped organize 7,110 households.


Annexes 23


CPS FY10-FY1: Pillar IV – Improving Security and Reducing the Threat of

Conflict


& livelihoods grants under the MDTF project. Indicator: A better trained, and better skilled workforce in KP and FATA.

Indicator dropped at CPSPR as interventions that were supposed to influence the outcome indicator were dropped.

16. CPS Objective 16: Increased Responsiveness and Effectiveness of the State Indicator: KP & FATA are able to manage and coordinate implementation of PCNA short and medium term interventions and design longer-term interventions; measured by operationalization of PCNA Implementation Support Unit in KP and FATA.

Three ISUs have been established, staffed and declared operational in KP and FATA to implement the recommendations of the PCNA and in Balochistan to implement the recommendations of the BDNA. In addition, 28 planning documents, programmatic reports and concept papers for reform have been prepared in KP and 32 in FATA.


Indicator: Overall multi-year Governance Program designed

Preparation of the 10-year governance programme initiated. Initial consultations held. Reforms already underway in complaints handling and grievance redressal mechanisms.


Indicator: Improved access to a defined package of health, nutrition, and reproductive health services in FATA

Access to health services not achieved. Activities on the health project not yet initiated.

Source: CPSCR Indicator revised at CPSPR The indicator lacked baselines and targets.

Indicator: Enhanced inter-district access and mobility in KP and FATA through two roads projects

A total of 15.5 km of provincial highway in Swat district In FATA, resettlement activities undertaken in advance of the 52 km road construction.

Source: CPSCR Indicator revised at CPSPR The indicator lacked baselines and targets.

Annexes 24


Annex Table 2: IBRD/IDA Lending: Planned and Actual Lending (FY10 - FY14)

Project ID Project Name Proposed

FY Approval

FY Exit FY

Proposed Amount USD (M)

Approved Amount USD (M)

Outcome Rating *

Project Planned Under CPS / CPSPR P102607 Higher Education Support Program (A) 2010 2010 100.0 IEG: S P115638 Social Safety Nets DPC (A) 2010 2012 200.0 IEG: S P108367 Third Punjab Irrigation Sector Dropped 100.0

Sub-Total programmed projects CAS FY10 100.0 300.0

P096745 Punjab Barrages Improvement II Project (A) 2011 2012 145.6 LIR: S P112902 Karachi Port Improvement Project 2011 2011 2016 112.0 115.8 LIR: S P118177 Skills Development Project 2011 2011 2015 20.0 21.0 LIR: MU P118779 Tertiary Education Support Project 2012 2011 2016 200.0 300.0 LIR: MU P121394 KP and FATA Emergency Recovery Project 2011 2011 2015 100.0 250.0 IEG: N/A

P122635 Second Improvement to Financial Reporting and Auditing Project PIFRA II (AF) 2011 2011 2011 24.0 24.5 LIR: S

P107678 KP Province Basic Human Development Services Project 2011 Dropped 100.0

P115889 Enhanced Nutrition for Mothers and Children Project 2011 Dropped 55.0 P113484 Second HIV/AIDS Prevention 2011 Dropped 32.0 P117535 Pakistan Poverty Reduction Support Credit (PRSC I) 2011 Dropped 300.0 P123432 Pakistan Poverty Reduction Support Credit (PRSC II) 2011 Dropped 300.0 P099375 Balochistan Mining TA Project 2011 Dropped 45.0 P101683 National Trade Corridor I 2011 Dropped 200.0 P101685 National Expressways Program 2011 Dropped 634.5 P112898 Power Efficiency (Supply & Demand) 2011 Dropped 300.0 P114278 Thar Coal and Power TA Project 2011 Dropped 30.0


P115893 Tarbela Fourth Extension Hydropower Project 2012 2012 2019 830.00 840.0 LIR: S P120589 Natural Gas Efficiency Project 2012 2012 2018 200.00 200.0 LIR: U P125793 Social Safety Net Technical Assistance (AF) 2012 2012 2012 100.00 150.0 LIR: S P125958 Punjab Education Sector II 2012 2012 2016 300.00 350.0 LIR: S

P125999 Punjab Irrigated Agriculture Productivity Improvement Program Project Phase-I 2012 2012 2019 250.00 250.0 LIR: HS

P110946 Implementation of the National Environmental Policy 2012 Dropped 35.00 P120674 AJK CISP Follow UP 2012 Dropped 50.00

Pakistan Poverty Reduction Support Credit (PRSC III) 2012 Dropped 300.00 GilgitBaltisan Education Project 2012 Delayed 30.00 Electricity Transmission and Distribution APL II 2012 Dropped Balochistan Education (AF) 2012 Dropped 15.00

Sub-Total programmed projects CAS FY12 2110.00 1790.00 P112901 Punjab Cities Governance Improvement 2013 2013 2017 300.00 150.0 LIR: S P123394 Punjab Health Sector Reform Project 2013 2013 2018 120.00 100.0 LIR: S P125952 Second Sindh Education Sector Project 2012 2013 2017 350.00 400.0 LIR: S

Revenue Mobilization DLI 2013 Delayed 300.00 Balochistan, Sindh, KP Irrigation 2013 Delayed

SME Support 2013 Dropped Sub-Total programmed projects CAS FY13 1070.00 650.00 Dasu Hydropower Stage 1 Project 2014 On track 700.00 Growth, Investment & Competitiveness DPC 2014 On track 500.00 Power Sector Reform DPC 2014 On track 500.00 Central / South Asia Regional Electricity Transmission 2014 2014 50.00


Annexes 25


Total programmed projects CAS FY10-14 5732.5 3596.9 Unplanned P122756 Punjab Education Sector Project (AF) (UNPLANNED) 2011 2011 50.0 LIS: MS

P123311 Highways Rehabilitation Project (AF) (UNPLANNED) 2011 2011 130.0 LIR: S P123914 Earthquake ERC for Flood Resp (AF) (UNPLANNED) 2011 2011 300.0 LIR: MS P124913 Sindh Education Sector (AF) (UNPLANNED) 2011 2011 50.0 LIR: MS

P125105 Flood Emergency Cash Transfer Project (UNPLANNED) 2011 2011 125.0 LIR: HS

P125109 Polio Eradication (AF) (UNPLANNED) 2011 2011 41.0 LIR: MS

P131266 Punjab Land Record Mgmt& Info Sys (AF) (UNPLANNED) 2013 2013 70.0 LIR: S

P132541 Second Additional Financing Polio Project (AF) (UNPLANNED) 2013 2013 24.0 LIR: MS

P132234 Punjab Public Management Reform Program (UNPLANNED) 2014 2019 50.0 LIR: S

Total Non-programmed projects CAS FY10-14 840.0

Total projects CAS FY10-14 5732.5 4436.9

On-going Approval FY

Closing FY Approved

Amount

P113372 Poverty Reduction & Econ. Support Oper. 2009 2010 500.0 LIR: MS P102608 PK: Punjab Education Sector Project 2009 2012 350.0 IEG: MS P107300 PK: Sindh Education Sctr Project (SEP) 2009 2012 300.0 IEG: MS P101684 PK:Second Trade & Transport Facilitation 2009 2014 25.0 LIR: U P114508 PK: 3rd Partnership for Polio Erad. 2009 2014 74.7 LIR: MS P105075 PK: PPAF III 2009 2015 250.0 LIR: S P103160 PK: Social Safety Net 2009 2016 60.0 LIR: S P095982 PK:Electricity Distribution &Transmissi 2008 2014 256.7 LIR: MU P084302 PK: Sindh Water Sector Improvement Proj 2008 2015 150.2 LIR: S P089378 PK: Balochistan SSIP 2008 2015 25.0 LIR: S P110099 PK: Water Sector Capacity Building Proj 2008 2015 38.0 LIR: S P090501 PK:Land Records Mgmt& Information Syst. 2007 2014 45.7 LIR: S P099110 PK: Pakistan Earthquake ERC 2006 2011 400.0 IEG: MS P083929 PK:Punjab Municipal Services Improvement 2006 2014 50.0 LIR: S P076872 PK: PIFRA II 2006 2015 84.0 LIR: S P094086 PK: BalochistanEduc Support Project 2006 2015 22.0 LIR: MS P088994 Taunsa Barrage Emergency Rehab. & Modern 2005 2010 123.0 IEG: S P077306 PK: Tax Administration Reform Project 2005 2012 102.9 IEG: MU P082621 NWFP Community Infrastructure II ( CIP2) 2004 2010 37.1 IEG: MU P083370 PK: Public Sect Capacity Building Proj 2004 2010 55.0 IEG: U P082977 PK: Second Poverty Alleviation Fund Proj 2004 2011 238.0 IEG: MS P010556 PK: HIGHWAYS REHAB 2004 2013 200.0 LIR: S P078997 PK: Sindh On-Farm Water Management Proj 2004 2014 61.1 LIR: S P074856 HIV/AIDS Prevention Project 2003 2010 37.1 LIR: MU P071454 AJK Community Infrastructure & Services 2003 2011 20.0 IEG: MS P071092 NWFP ON-FARM WATER MANAGEMENT PROJECT 2001 2010 21.4 IEG: MU

Total Ongoing Projects 3526.8 Source: Pakistan CPS, CPSPR and WB Business Warehouse Table 2a.1, 2a.4 and 2a.7 as of 02/11/2014 *LIR: Latest internal rating. MU: Moderately Unsatisfactory. MS: Moderately Satisfactory. S: Satisfactory. HS: Highly Satisfactory.

Annexes 26


Annex Table 3: Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY10-14 (US$ million)

Project ID Project name TF ID Approval FY Closing FY Approved

Amount P115044 Grant to Technology Incubation Centre, Pakistan TF 93238 2009 2010 0.1 P102064 Multidonor Rating Fnd for MFI Ratings & Assessments III TF 90400 2008 2010 1.4

P103989 Pakistan - Technical Assistance for Lady Health Workers Third Party Evaluation TF 58211 2008 2010 1.0

P099542 PK Earthquake Disability TF 57459 2007 2010 5.0 P110197 Pakistan - Community-Based Rehabilitation of Persons with Disabilities TF 56750 2007 2010 1.7

P097547 NWFP: Support to Strengthening of Procurement Regulatory Framework TF 56952 2007 2010 0.4

P110203 PK - Promoting Independent Living Amongst Persons with Disabilities TF 56747 2007 2010 0.8 P096372 Capacity Building for the Securities and Exchange Commission TF 55465 2006 2010 0.5 P035823 Protected Areas Management Project TF 28408 2003 2010 10.1 P110946 PAKISTAN - Implementation of the National EnvPolicy TF 93104 2009 2011 0.5 P105043 Institutional Development of Pakistan Center for Philanthropy TF 90919 2008 2011 0.2 P083929 Punjab Municipal Services Improvement Project (PMSIP) TF 56732 2007 2011 0.6

N/A N/A TF 56532 2006 2011 3.3 P099110 PK: Pakistan Earthquake ERC TF 56749 2007 2011 3.0 P074856 HIV/AIDS Prevention Project TF 93986 2009 2011 4.1 P074856 HIV/AIDS Prevention Project TF 58225 2008 2011 1.0 P102608 Pakistan: Punjab Education Sector Project TF 98382 2011 2012 18.5 P077306 Pakistan Tax Administration Reforms Project TF 54392 2005 2012 22.8 P082977 Second Poverty Alleviation Fund Project TF 90416 2008 2012 1.0 P125105 Pakistan Flood Emergency Cash Transfer Project TF 11049 2012 2013 91.4 P124158 Pakistan: Emergency Job Training for Vulnerable Youth TF 97919 2011 2013 2.8 P094086 Pakistan: Balochistan Education Support Project - BESP TF 91827 2009 2013 1.3 P082977 Second Poverty Alleviation Fund Project TF 93387 2009 2013 2.0 P125968 Capacity Building of Institute of Capital Markets (ICM) TF 99866 2011 2014 0.4 P125584 MDTF KP Emergency Roads Recovery Project TF 10112 2012 2014 8.0

N/A N/A TF 11834 2011 2014 3.3 N/A N/A TF 11833 2011 2014 22.2 N/A N/A TF 94843 2010 2014 5.9 N/A N/A TF 95144 2010 2014 36.3

P125584 MDTF KP Emergency Roads Recovery Project TF 15895 2014 2015 9.1 P143661 Competitive Industries Project for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa TF 14957 2014 2015 9.0

N/A N/A TF 15826 2014 2015 10.0 P130835 KP Southern Area Development Project TF 13560 2013 2015 18.0 P128966 MDTF FATA Emergency Rural Roads Project TF 13462 2013 2015 16.0 P128096 Pakistan: Promoting Girls' Education in Balochistan (PGEB) TF 12826 2013 2015 10.0 P127253 Balochistan Disaster Management Project TF 12516 2013 2015 5.0 P126833 FATA Rural Livelihoods and Community Infrastructure Project (RLCIP) TF 11857 2012 2015 12.0 P126426 Pakistan: Revitalizing Health Services in KP TF 11062 2012 2015 16.0 P125414 FATA Urban Centers Project (FUCP) TF 12150 2012 2015 7.0 P126425 KP/FATA Governance Reforms TF 10510 2012 2015 8.8 P124268 MDTF-Economic Revitalization of KP and FATA TF 99175 2012 2015 20.0

P101640 Pakistan Community-Based Renewable Energy Development in Northern Areas and Chithral TF 92366 2008 2015 5.9

P106652 Pakistan: Lahore Composting project TF 92446 2009 2015 4.9 P131177 Second Generation ICT Sector Policy and Legal Reforms TF 12292 2013 2016 0.5 P131124 Strengthening the Forum of Pakistan Ombudsman (FPO) TF 12310 2013 2016 0.4 P128902 Strengthening Pakistan's Urban Disaster Response Capacity TF 11138 2012 2016 2.7

Total 404.6 Source: Client Connection as of 02/11/2014

Annexes 27


Annex Table 4: Analytical and Advisory Work for Pakistan (FY10 - FY14) Proj ID Economic and Sector Work Fiscal year Output Type

P098436 Pakistan Health Sector Review FY10 Report P102692 PER-PMA Procure.Assess. FY10 Report P108415 Gilgit-Baltistan Economic Report FY10 Report P102690 Poverty Assessment FY11 Report P107449 NWFP Mining Sector Policy Note FY11 Policy Note P111229 Doing Business in Pakistan Report FY11 Report P113379 Revenue Mobilization: Policy & Adm. FY11 Policy Note P113480 SP Policy Note FY11 Policy Note P117572 Post Crisis Needs Assessment FY11 Policy Note P120725 DeMPA Assessment - Pakistan FY11 Report P123433 Government Debt Policy & Management FY11 Policy Note P109009 Export Diversification & Promotion FY12 Policy Note P110868 Post Disaster Housing Capacity Build FY12 Report P112910 Climate Change Ag & Water Adaptation FY12 Report P115051 Greening Freight Transport PSIA & SEA FY12 Report P118811 Safety Net Report FY12 Report P127771 PEFA Update Provincial Punjab FY12 Report P127772 PEFA Update Federal FY12 Report P128092 Gender Policy Notes FY12 Policy Note P128462 KP PER (MDTF) FY12 Report P117538 CEM-Towards Accelerating Growth FY13 Report P129113 Water Supply and Sanitation Sector Note FY13 EW/Not assigned P132655 Development Dialogues & Policy Note FY13 EW/Not assigned P133118 Punjab Social Sector PER FY13 EW/Not assigned P144222 Subnational DeMPA Pakistan FY13 EW/Not assigned P117342 Education Sector Review FY14 Report P127991 Labor Supply and Vulnerability FY14 Report P132870 Sindh PEFA assessment FY13 FY14 EW/Not assigned P146197 Consumer Protection & Financial Literacy FY14 EW/Not assigned P148113 Pakistan Financial Inclusion Strategy FY14 EW/Not assigned Proj ID Technical Assistance Fiscal year Output Type

P078072 Implement DecentralizatBalochistan FY10 "How-To" Guidance P097658 Bank Netherlands Water Support Program FY12 TA/IAR P103883 Air Quality MGT& Climate Change FY11 Client Document Review P105675 Pakistan ICR TA FY12 TA/IAR P105916 Environment Program FY10 Knowledge-Sharing Forum P106948 Pakistan PPP NLTA FY10 "How-To" Guidance P108846 Improving Procurement Capability of TMAs FY10 Knowledge-Sharing Forum P109013 Competition Policy II FY10 "How-To" Guidance P109781 Punjab WASA restructuring FY11 Client Document Review P110240 ILO Support to GoAJK (Pak Earthquake) FY12 "How-To" Guidance P110360 TA on FM &Proc Harmonization FY10 Institutional Development Plan P111246 Large-Scale Efficient Lighting Progr. FY12 TA/EPD P112211 TA for Social Protection Reform FY11 "How-To" Guidance P113107 Resettlement & Land Acquisition FY12 TA/IAR P114803 Punjab Property Tax Reform FY10 Institutional Development Plan P114804 Integrated solid Waste Management FY10 Institutional Development Plan P114805 PPP Assistance FY11 Institutional Development Plan P114933 Ag Competitiveness FY11 "How-To" Guidance P115048 Inclusive Green Industrial Growth FY12 TA/IAR P115962 Planning Commission - Private Sector TF FY11 Knowledge-Sharing Forum P115997 RegnlConf on Eco. Stabilzn& Recovery FY10 Knowledge-Sharing Forum P116142 Sindh: Climate Change &Env Priorities FY12 TA/IAR P116298 Government Debt and Cash Management FY10 "How-To" Guidance P117479 M&E of Transport Sector FY13 TA/IAR P117537 Poverty Monitoring FY11 "How-To" Guidance

Annexes 28


P119048 Insolvency Framework FY11 "How-To" Guidance P119785 Pakistan AML/CFT Capacity Building FY10 Knowledge-Sharing Forum P122952 Mining and Regional Integration FY13 TA/IAR P123441 Multi SectoralNutr. Dialogue and TA FY14 TA/IAR P123535 GFDRR: Pakistan Floods PDNA FY11 "How-To" Guidance P123854 PK Financial Exclusion of Women Entrepre FY12 TA/IAR P126189 MicroinsuranceReg&Spn FY12 TA/IAR P126708 Pakistan (Balochistan) EI-TAF FY14 TA/IAR P126905 Operationalization of the KP/FATA PCNA FY12 TA/IAR P128042 SOE Reform FY12 TA/IAR P128045 Sub National Doing Bus Follow Up FY12 TA/IAR P128060 Fiscal Mgmt: federal & provincial FY12 TA/IAR P128061 Poverty Update FY12 TA/IAR P128062 Debt Management FY13 TA/IAR P128306 Agricultural Competitiveness FY13 TA/EPD P129664 Strengthening Market Governance FY12 TA/IAR P129695 Disaster Recovery and Social Protection FY14 TA/IAR P129905 Health Shocks in Disasters FY13 TA/IAR P130591 Balochistan Needs Assessment FY13 TA/IAR P131774 Pre-Post Election Development Dialogue FY13 TA/IAR P133353 Poverty Update II FY14 TA/IAR P133504 MDTF Sub-national Fiscal Mgmt II FY14 TA/IAR P133506 MDTF Governance TA in Conflict FY14 TA/IAR P133513 Pakistan AML/CFT Support FY13 TA/EPD P133629 Pakistan India Power Interconnection FY13 TA/EPD P145103 Business Registration Reform FY14 TA/IAR P148263 Government Debt Policy and Management FY14 TA/IAR P148338 Punjab Competitiveness FY14 TA/IAR P148561 PK: Subnational Fiscal Policy Notes FY14 TA/IAR P148660 Pakistan MTDS FY14 TA/IAR Source: WB Business Warehouse Table ESW/TA 8.1.4 as of 02/11/2014

Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Pakistan, FY10-14 Exit FY Proj ID Project name Total

Evaluated (US$ million) IEG Outcome IEG Risk to DO

2010 P035823 GEF-Protected Areas Management Project 0.0 Moderately Satisfactory Significant 2011 P071454 AJK Community Infrastructure & Services 54.8 Moderately Satisfactory Significant 2010 P074856 HIV/AIDS Prevention Project 35.7 Moderately Unsatisfactory Significant 2010 P082621 NWFP Community Infrastructure II ( CIP2) 47.6 Moderately Unsatisfactory High 2011 P082977 PK: Second Poverty Alleviation Fund Proj 567.5 Moderately Satisfactory Moderate 2010 P083370 PK: Public Sect Capacity Building Proj 43.6 Unsatisfactory High 2012 P077306 PK: Tax Administration Reform Project 47.6 Moderately Unsatisfactory High 2010 P088994 Taunsa Barrage Emergency Rehab. & Modern 105.5 Satisfactory Moderate 2011 P099110 PK: Pakistan Earthquake ERC 729.2 Moderately Satisfactory Significant 2010 P099542 PK Earthquake Disability 0.0 Moderately Satisfactory Moderate 2012 P102608 PK: Punjab Education Sector Project 401.8 Moderately Satisfactory Significant 2012 P107300 PK: Sindh Education Sctr Project (SEP) 355.0 Moderately Satisfactory Significant 2010 P102607 Higher Education Support Program 106.0 Satisfactory Significant 2012 P115638 PK: Social Safety Nets DPC 158.9 Satisfactory High 2012 P121394 PK: KP and FATA Emerg Recovery Project 0.0 Not Applicable Not Applicable

Total 2,653.3 Source: BW Table 4.a.6 as of 02/11/2014

Annexes 29


Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Pakistan and Comparators (Exit FY10-14)

Region Total

Evaluated ($M)

Total Evaluated

(No) Outcome % Sat ($)

Outcome % Sat (No)

RDO % Moderate or

Lower Sat ($) *

RDO % Moderate or

Lower Sat (No) *

Pakistan 2,653.3 15 93.4 71.4 25.4 20.0 SAR 13,753.9 89 86.8 70.5 59.8 44.9

World 67,097.94 769 82.88 71.30 60.66 52.04 Source: BW Table 4.a.5 as of 02/11/2014 * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status Indicators for Pakistan and Comparators, FY10-14

Fiscal year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Average FY10-FY14

Pakistan

# Proj 22 25 33 37 36 30.6

# Proj At Risk 5 7 5 7 6 6.0

% Proj At Risk 22.7 28.0 15.2 18.9 16.7 20.3

Net CommAmt (US$ million) 3,506.1 3,710.5 4,322.0 4,543.3 4,375.8 4,091.5

Comm At Risk (US$ million) 341.1 761.2 790.4 765.5 660.9 663.8

% Commit at Risk 9.7 20.5 18.3 16.8 15.1 16.1

SAR

# Proj 220 234 249 269 271 248.6

# Proj At Risk 43 45 32 53 62 47.0

% Proj At Risk 19.5 19.2 12.9 19.7 22.9 18.8


Comm At Risk (US$ million) 4,885.8 5,306.8 5,604.6 9,642.2 8,696.5 6,827.2

% Commit at Risk 14.5 13.9 14.8 25.2 22.2 18.1

World

# Proj 1,990 2,059 2,029 1,965 1,980 2,004.6

# Proj At Risk 410 382 387 414 454 409.4

% Proj At Risk 20.6 18.6 19.1 21.1 22.9 20.4


Comm At Risk (US$ million) 28,963.1 23,850.0 24,465.0 40,805.6 43,046.0 32,225.9

% Commit at Risk 17.8 13.9 14.1 23.2 24.1 18.6 Source: WB Business Warehouse Table 3.a.4 as of 02/11/2014

Annexes 30


Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio* for Pakistan and Comparators, FY10-14 (US$ Million) Fiscal Year FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 Average FY10-14

Pakistan Disbursement Ratio (%) 29.1 62.1 33.5 19.0 7.3 30.2 InvDisb in FY (US$ million) 517.2 807.5 667.0 540.7 222.2 550.9 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY (US$ million) 1,776.2 1,300.1 1,993.3 2,844.9 3,059.9 2,194.9

SAR Disbursement Ratio (%) 29.3 23.1 16.5 16.2 7.9 18.6 InvDisb in FY (US$ million) 4,148.0 4,505.9 4,079.0 4,079.6 1,948.6 3,752.2 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY (US$ million) 14,177.6 19,547.4 24,777.1 25,235.6 24,710.7 21,689.7

World Disbursement Ratio (%) 26.9 22.4 20.8 20.6 11.7 20.5 InvDisb in FY (US$ million) 20,928.7 20,933.3 21,047.7 20,506.8 11,614.9 19,006.3 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY (US$ million) 77,755.6 93,506.4 101,225.6 99,559.9 99,379.9 94,285.5

Source: WB Business Warehouse Table 3.a.12 as of 02/11/2014 * Calculated as IBRD/IDA Disbursements in FY / Opening Undisbursed Amount at FY. Restricted to Lending Instrument Type = Investment. Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement* and Charges for Pakistan (US$ million), FY10-14

Period Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfer FY2010 783.83 389.64 394.19 30.21 82.80 281.18 FY2011 806.72 341.36 465.37 15.38 83.78 366.21 FY2012 657.58 346.79 310.79 23.42 84.37 203.00 FY2013 534.87 380.28 154.59 25.53 82.36 46.70 FY2014 212.95 293.09 -80.14 14.12 49.74 -144.00

Report Total 2,995.96 1,751.16 1,244.80 108.66 383.05 753.09 Source: World Bank Client Connection 02/11/14 * Total amount disbursed in US dollars calculated at the exchange rate on the value date of the individual disbursement.

Annexes 31


Annex Table 10: Investments approved pre-FY10, but active during FY10-13 Project

ID Cmt FY Project Status Name

Primary Sector Name Greenfield Code Project Size Original

Loan Original Equity

Oiginal CMT

Loan Cancel

Equity Cancel Net Loan Net

Equity Net

Comm

2476 1994 Active Textiles, Apparel & Leather G 78,700,000 16,100 2,777 18,877 - - 18,877 2,777 18,877 8286 1997 Active Textiles, Apparel & Leather E 10,000,000 - 2,000 2,000 - - 2,000 2,000 2,000 11218 2002 Active Finance & Insurance G 2,641,006 - 2,660 2,660 - - 2,660 2,660 2,660 11670 2003 Active Chemicals G 70,000,000 34,000 1,000 35,000 1,000 - 34,000 1,000 34,000

21614 2004 Active Professional, Scientific and Technical Services G 5,000,000 - 5,000 5,000 - - 5,000 5,000 5,000

21763 2005 Active Finance & Insurance G 35,000,000 7,000 - 7,000 - - 7,000 - 7,000 23389 2005 Active Collective Investment Vehicles G 5,000,000 - 5,000 5,000 - - 5,000 5,000 5,000 24013 2006 Active Finance & Insurance G 5,000,000 3,700 1,006 4,706 - - 4,706 1,006 4,706 24135 2006 Active Finance & Insurance E 50,000,000 50,000 - 50,000 - - 50,000 - 50,000 24532 2007 Active Collective Investment Vehicles G 20,000,000 - 20,000 20,000 - - 20,000 20,000 20,000 24639 2006 Active Finance & Insurance E 10,000,000 288,907 - 288,907 - - 288,907 - 288,907

24788 2007 Active Professional, Scientific and Technical Services E 24,000,000 - 2,500 2,500 - - 2,500 2,500 2,500

24869 2007 Active Finance & Insurance E 7,500,000 54,501 - 54,501 - - 54,501 - 54,501 24894 2007 Active Oil, Gas and Mining G 99,860,000 15,000 12,000 27,000 - - 27,000 12,000 27,000 24968 2007 Active Finance & Insurance E - 72,399 - 72,399 - - 72,399 - 72,399 25037 2008 Active Finance & Insurance E 20,000,000 261,652 - 261,652 - - 261,652 - 261,652 25396 2007 Active Electric Power E 1,868,000,000 125,000 - 125,000 - - 125,000 - 125,000 25487 2008 Active Electric Power G 215,800,000 56,919 2,788 59,707 3,789 - 55,918 2,788 55,918 25582 2007 Active Chemicals G 261,400,000 30,000 20,000 50,000 - - 50,000 20,000 50,000 25627 2008 Active Finance & Insurance E 20,000,000 263,422 - 263,422 - - 263,422 - 263,422 25654 2008 Active Finance & Insurance E 50,000,000 473,761 - 473,761 - - 473,761 - 473,761

25676 2007 Active Accommodation & Tourism Services E 88,210,000 - 16,000 16,000 - - 16,000 16,000 16,000

27494 2009 Active Pulp & Paper E 165,000,000 - 50,000 50,000 - - 50,000 50,000 50,000 26383 2008 Active Finance & Insurance G 60,000,000 - 60,000 60,000 - - 60,000 60,000 60,000 26509 2008 Active Finance & Insurance G 16,636,265 - 2,329 2,329 - - 2,329 2,329 2,329 26753 2008 Active Primary Metals G 148,200,000 18,400 - 18,400 12,000 - 6,400 - 6,400 27308 2008 Active Finance & Insurance E 10,000,000 134,166 - 134,166 - - 134,166 - 134,166 27354 2008 Active Finance & Insurance E 93,146 - 93 93 - - 93 93 93 27801 2009 Active Finance & Insurance E 2,500,000 57,311 - 57,311 - - 57,311 - 57,311 27956 2009 Active Finance & Insurance E 20,000,000 59,978 - 59,978 - - 59,978 - 59,978 28008 2009 Active Finance & Insurance E 30,000,000 247,765 - 247,765 - - 247,765 - 247,765 28048 2009 Active Finance & Insurance E 17,500,000 87,358 - 87,358 - - 87,358 - 87,358 28030 1900 Active Finance & Insurance E 10,000,000 7,574 - 7,574 - - 7,574 - 7,574

Total 3,347,340,417 2,348,813 202,376 2,551,189 16,789 - 2,534,400 202,376 2,534,400

Annexes 32


Annex Table 11: Investment approved during the CPS Period (FY10-13)

Project ID

Cmt FY

Project Status Name

Primary Sector Name Greenfield Code Project Size Original

Loan Original Equity

Oiginal CMT

Loan Cancel

Equity Cancel

Net Loan

Net Equity

Net Comm

27930 2010 Active Transportation and Warehousing E 198,500,000 30,000 - 30,000 - - 30,000 - 30,000

27933 2010 Active Chemicals E 50,000,000 50,000 - 50,000 - - 50,000 - 50,000 28030 1900 Active Finance & Insurance E 10,000,000 7,574 - 7,574 - - 7,574 - 7,574 28010 2010 Active Electric Power G 236,140,000 35,000 - 35,000 - - 35,000 - 35,000 28789 2010 Closed Utilities G 3,000,000 3,000 - 3,000 2,738 - 262 - 262 29075 2010 Active Finance & Insurance E 15,868,946 - 15,780 15,780 - - 15,780 15,780 15,780 29787 2010 Active Chemicals E 2,491,528 - 2,492 2,492 - - 2,492 2,492 2,492 28035 2011 Active Electric Power G 551,355,607 99,630 - 99,630 - - 99,630 - 99,630 28231 2011 Active Finance & Insurance G 7,000,000 - 1,882 1,882 - - 1,882 1,882 1,882 30186 2011 Active Chemicals E 30,000,000 30,000 - 30,000 - - 30,000 - 30,000 30390 2011 Active Finance & Insurance E 933,108 - 933 933 - - 933 933 933

30466 2011 Active Transportation and Warehousing G 10,000,000 10,000 - 10,000 - - 10,000 - 10,000

26229 2012 Active Electric Power G 436,000,000 60,000 - 60,000 - - 60,000 - 60,000

28356 2012 Closed Transportation and Warehousing E 70,000,000 70,000 - 70,000 70,000 - - - -

28966 2012 Active Transportation and Warehousing G 65,500,000 26,500 19,000 45,500 - - 45,500 19,000 45,500

29251 2012 Active Electric Power G 158,600,000 38,100 - 38,100 2,983 - 35,117 - 35,117 30684 2012 Active Finance & Insurance E 18,200,000 64,699 - 64,699 - - 64,699 - 64,699 31481 2012 Active Food & Beverages E 17,935,872 - 5,064 5,064 - - 5,064 5,064 5,064 32180 2012 Active Finance & Insurance E 524,051 - 524 524 - - 524 524 524

32873 2013 Active Construction and Real Estate G 70,273,000 11,000 - 11,000 - - 11,000 - 11,000

33066 2013 Active Finance & Insurance E 5,000,000 7,126 - 7,126 - - 7,126 - 7,126 33184 2013 Active Electric Power E 60,000,000 2,500 - 2,500 - - 2,500 - 2,500

Total 2,017,322,112 545,129 45,675 590,803 75,721 - 515,082 45,675 515,082 Grand Total 5,364,662,529 2,893,941 248,051 3,141,992 92,510 - 3,049,482 248,051 3,049,482

Source: IFC MiIS as of January 15, 2014

Annexes 33


Annex Table 12: Annex Table 11: Advisory Services Approved and Active in FY10-13 (US$’000)

Project Id Project Name Start

FY End FY

Project Status

Primary Business

Line Code

Total Funds

539208 ADR Pakistan P1 2006 2010 CLOSED IC 1,524,248 534246 Pakistan Wind Power Pre-Feasibility 2008 2011 CLOSED SBA 254,000 557485 Sustainable Finance Pakistan 2008 2010 CLOSED A2F 114,782 539555 SME Management Training Pakistan 2009 2013 CLOSED SBA 934,391 564227 Assistance to Pakistan Business Council - Phase II 2009 2010 CLOSED IC 219,488 564790 Subnational Doing Business in Pakistan 2009 2011 CLOSED IC 297,428 565748 NRSP TA 2009 2010 CLOSED A2F 260,000 561696 Improving Wastepaper Recovery and Collection in Pakistan 2010 2014 ACTIVE SBA 325,105 569898 Pakistan Corporate Governance Project (II) 2010 2013 ACTIVE SBA 804,999 571009 Pakistan Mortgage Refinance Company-Feasibility Study 2010 2010 TERMINATED A2F 24,000 29743 Punjab Wheat Silos (Pakistan) 2011 2015 ACTIVE PPP 1,686,311 30017 Sindh Silos (Pakistan) 2011 2015 ACTIVE PPP 1,403,406

571408 ADR Pakistan Phase 2 2011 2014 ACTIVE IC 1,678,209 584587 HBL Small Business Banking 2011 2013 ACTIVE A2F 528,000 582727 Pakistan CB & MF 2012 2014 ACTIVE A2F 313,382 594947 Bank Alfalah SME Banking advisory 2012 2014 ACTIVE A2F 800,000 598467 Pakistan and Afghanistan CG Project 2012 2015 ACTIVE SBA 625,000 588427 FaST Pakistan Project Phase-2 2013 2016 ACTIVE SBA 1,242,000 599081 MENA Renewable Energy Development Support 2013 2017 ACTIVE SBA 1,931,662 599497 Pakistan/Punjab Energy 2013 2015 ACTIVE IC 730,000 599748 HBL Rural Business Advisory 2013 2016 ACTIVE A2F 502,000

Total 16,198,411 Source: IFC as of June 30, 2013

Annexes 34


Annex Table 13: IFC Net Commitment Activity Table

2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 Total Financial Markets 1,753 -8,113 494,365 2,818,611 15,858,353 19,164,969 Trade Finance (TF) 305,216,834 331,923,674 335,941,436 553,572,364 379,819,367 1,906,473,675 Funds 0 0 0 0 0 0 Agribusiness & Forestry 0 0 4,858,175 0 -3,955,208 902,966 Other MAS Sectors 0 0 0 0 0 0 Manufacturing 0 0 -12,000,000 30,000,000 52,502,594 70,502,594 Consumer & Social Services 0 11,000,000 0 0 0 11,000,000 Other Infra Sectors 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oil,Gas & Mining 0 -2,737,719 0 0 3,000,000 262,281 Infrastructure 20,309,856 -42,842,908 206,955,770 105,036,782 43,000,000 332,459,501 Telecom & IT 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 325,528,442 297,334,934 536,249,746 691,427,758 490,225,105 2,340,765,986 Source: IFC Data as of 4/17/2014 Excluded items (Global Product Group (CBG/CSG))

Annex Table 14: IFC Original Commitment Activity Table

2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 Total Financial Markets 0 0 524,051 2,815,461 15,779,898 19,119,410 Trade Finance (TF) 305,216,834 331,923,674 335,941,436 553,572,364 379,819,367 1,906,473,675 Funds 0 0 0 0 0 0 Agribusiness & Forestry 0 0 5,063,677 0 0 5,063,677 Other MAS Sectors 0 0 0 0 0 0 Manufacturing 0 0 0 30,000,000 52,491,528 82,491,528 Consumer & Social Services 0 11,000,000 0 0 0 11,000,000

Other Infra Sectors 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oil,Gas & Mining 0 0 0 0 3,000,000 3,000,000 Infrastructure 20,000,000 2,500,000 213,600,000 109,630,258 65,000,000 410,730,258 Telecom & IT 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 325,216,834 345,423,674 555,129,164 696,018,083 516,090,793 2,437,878,548 Source: IFC Data as of 4/17/2014 Excluded items (Global Product Group (CBG/CSG))

Annexes 35


Annex Table 15: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Pakistan Development Partners 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Australia 113.49 74.49 87.97 .. .. Austria 9.78 2.3 1.3 .. .. Belgium 14.71 14.18 1.01 .. .. Canada 101.85 87.49 38.72 .. .. Czech Republic 1.7 0.74 0.47 .. .. Denmark 29.96 17.83 14.78 .. .. Finland 17.04 10.55 3.64 .. .. France 14.44 15.03 23.01 .. .. Germany 142.1 125.66 101.93 .. .. Greece 0.38 0.21 0.18 .. .. Iceland 0.3 0.06 .. .. .. Ireland 5.04 2.01 2.44 .. .. Italy 12.16 26.78 42.75 .. .. Japan 207.89 528.47 256.36 .. .. Korea 19.47 11.74 7.09 .. .. Luxembourg 3.74 1.89 0.23 .. .. Netherlands 53.72 30.69 29.52 .. .. New Zealand 2.88 1.18 .. .. .. Norway 83.12 32.83 30.24 .. .. Poland 0.1 0.06 0.19 .. .. Portugal .. .. 0.01 .. .. Slovak Republic .. .. 0.03 .. .. Spain 22.7 5.74 0.29 .. .. Sweden 42.51 21.59 14.24 .. .. Switzerland 23.66 18.79 13.8 .. .. United Kingdom 298.51 331.59 299.87 .. .. United States 1196.76 1273.85 624.76 .. ..

DAC Countries, Total 2418.01 2635.75 1594.83 .. .. AfDB .. .. .. .. .. AfDF .. .. .. .. .. Arab Fund (AFESD) .. .. .. .. .. AsDB Special Funds 87.49 -216.32 -277.83 .. .. BADEA .. .. .. .. .. CarDB .. .. .. .. .. EBRD .. .. .. .. .. EU Institutions 172.28 256.59 190.12 .. .. GAVI 95.37 19.11 154.04 .. .. GEF 2.27 1.76 1.8 .. .. Global Fund 25.29 9.98 46.08 .. .. IAEA 1.67 0.97 0.68 .. .. IBRD .. .. .. .. .. IDA 204.81 700.09 350.2 .. .. IDB Sp.Fund .. .. .. .. .. IFAD 14.4 12.76 -0.81 .. .. IFC .. .. .. .. .. IMF (Concessional Trust Funds) -262.86 -272 -224.3 .. .. Isl.Dev Bank -0.16 -2.8 -2.44 .. .. Montreal Protocol .. .. .. .. .. Nordic Dev.Fund -0.57 -0.59 -0.55 .. .. OFID -1.31 5.9 8.4 .. .. OSCE .. .. .. .. .. UNAIDS 0.72 0.81 0.91 .. .. UNDP 12.68 10.47 9.48 .. .. UNECE .. .. .. .. .. UNFPA 10.81 9.64 6.23 .. ..

Annexes 36


UNHCR .. .. .. .. .. UNICEF 23.76 22.22 20.03 .. .. UNPBF .. .. .. .. .. UNRWA .. .. .. .. .. UNTA .. .. .. .. .. WFP 9.07 30.29 16.28 .. .. WHO .. 1.66 0.71 .. .. Other Multilaterals .. .. .. .. ..

Multilateral, Total 395.72 590.54 299.03 .. .. Bulgaria .. .. .. .. .. Chinese Taipei .. .. .. .. .. Cyprus 0.16 0.01 .. .. .. Estonia 0.12 0.06 .. .. .. Hungary 0.01 0.07 0.01 .. .. Israel 0.02 .. .. .. .. Kuwait (KFAED) -0.03 3.53 25.51 .. .. Latvia .. .. .. .. .. Liechtenstein .. .. .. .. .. Lithuania 0.02 0.01 .. .. .. Malta .. .. .. .. .. Romania 0.19 0.17 0.17 .. .. Russia .. 1 0.02 .. .. Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. Slovenia 0.04 .. .. .. .. Thailand 0.29 0.11 0.07 .. .. Turkey 134.49 204.95 10.64 .. .. United Arab Emirates 63.99 71.34 88.78 .. .. Other donor countries .. .. .. .. ..

Non-DAC Countries, Total 199.3 281.25 125.2 .. .. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation 11.17 72.82 30.42 .. ..

Private Donors, Total 11.17 72.82 30.42 .. .. All Development Partners, Total 3024.2 3580.36 2049.48 .. .. Source: Data extracted on 12 Feb 2014 15:42 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat

Annexes 37


Annex Table 16: Economic and Social Indicators for Pakistan, 2010 – 2014

Series Name Pakistan SAR World 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Average 2010-2014

Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 1.6 2.8 4.0 .. .. 2.8 6.4 3.1 GDP per capita growth (annual %) -0.2 1.0 2.3 .. .. 1.0 5.0 1.9

GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) 2,650.0 2,750.0 2,880.0 .. .. 2,760.0 3,336.7 11,670.2

GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 1,060.0 1,140.0 1,260.0 .. .. 1,153.3 1,332.4 9,649.2 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 13.9 11.9 9.7 .. .. 11.8 8.9 4.0

Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) 24.3 26.0 24.4 .. .. 24.9 18.5 3.2 Industry, value added (% of GDP) 20.6 21.3 22.0 .. .. 21.3 26.2 26.8 Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) 55.1 52.7 53.6 .. .. 53.8 55.3 69.9 Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) 14.2 12.5 13.3 .. .. 13.3 28.2 21.0 Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) 10.0 9.1 7.0 .. .. 8.7 26.1 21.6

External Accounts Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 13.5 14.0 12.3 .. .. 13.3 21.9 29.9 Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) 19.4 19.0 20.3 .. .. 19.5 28.7 29.9 Current account balance (% of GDP) -0.8 -1.0 -0.9 .. .. -0.9 .. .. External debt stocks (% of GNI) 34.5 29.6 25.5 .. .. 29.8 20.6 .. Total debt service (% of GNI) 2.3 1.3 2.0 .. .. 1.9 1.6 .. Total reserves in months of imports 4.7 4.2 3.1 .. .. 4.0 6.4 13.5

Fiscal Accounts * General government revenue (% of GDP) 14.4 12.8 12.8 13.2 12.9 13.2 .. .. General government total expenditure (% of GDP) 20.3 19.8 20.9 20.2 20.0 20.2 .. ..

General government net lending/borrowing (% of GDP) -5.9 -7.0 -8.2 -7.0 -7.1 -7.0 .. ..

General government gross debt (% of GDP) 61.7 60.3 62.1 64.1 64.8 62.6 .. .. Health Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 66.1 66.3 .. .. .. 66.2 66.3 70.4

Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months) 86.0 80.0 81.0 .. .. 82.3 76.0 83.3

Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 47.3 47.4 .. .. .. 47.4 38.5 63.4

Improved water source (% of population with access) 91.2 91.4 .. .. .. 91.3 89.8 88.6

Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 72.2 70.7 69.3 .. .. 70.7 48.3 36.0 Education School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) .. .. .. .. .. .. 49.2 49.3

School enrollment, primary (% gross) 94.8 92.3 92.9 .. .. 93.3 109.2 106.9 School enrollment, secondary (% gross) 34.1 34.9 36.6 .. .. 35.2 58.5 70.5

Population

Population, total 173,149,306.0

176,166,353.0

179,160,111.0 .. .. 176,158,

590.0 1,628,155,207.0

6,965,843,683.

8 Population growth (annual %) 1.8 1.7 1.7 .. .. 1.7 1.3 1.2 Urban population (% of total) 35.9 36.2 36.5 .. .. 36.2 31.0 52.1

Source: DDP as of February 11, 2014 *International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2014 (Estimates Start after 2011)

Annexes 38


Annex Table 17: Pakistan - Millennium Development Goals Millennium Development Goals

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Employment to population ratio, 15+, total (%) .. 46.7 47.3 48.8 51.2 51.4 51.5 Employment to population ratio, ages 15-24, total (%) .. 35.9 35.7 40.3 41.6 41.6 41.6 GDP per person employed (constant 1990 PPP $) 5,929.0 7,114.0 7,496.0 8,353.0 8,259.0 8,405.0 8,483.0 Income share held by lowest 20% .. .. .. 9.2 .. .. .. Malnutrition prevalence, weight for age (% of children under 5) .. 34.2 .. .. .. 30.9 .. Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%) .. .. .. 4.4 .. .. .. Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population) .. .. .. 22.6 .. .. .. Vulnerable employment, total (% of total employment) .. 64.9 63.6 61.2 .. .. ..

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Literacy rate, youth female (% of females ages 15-24) .. .. .. 53.1 .. .. .. Literacy rate, youth male (% of males ages 15-24) .. .. .. 76.7 .. .. .. Persistence to last grade of primary, total (% of cohort) .. .. .. 52.2 61.0 .. Primary completion rate, total (% of relevant age group) .. .. .. 61.2 66.9 66.6 71.9 Adjusted net enrollment rate, primary (% of primary school age children) .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Proportion of seats held by women in national Parliaments (%) 10.1 .. .. 21.3 22.2 22.5 22.5 Ratio of female to male primary enrollment (%) 53.3 .. 68.1 77.0 85.3 86.0 87.2 Ratio of female to male secondary enrollment (%) 41.6 .. .. 77.5 77.2 75.3 73.5 Ratio of female to male tertiary enrollment (%) 40.4 .. .. 86.6 .. 92.0 95.5 Share of women employed in the nonagricultural sector (% of total

nonagricultural employment) 7.7 8.8 13.0 13.9 .. .. ..

Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Immunization, measles (% of children ages 12-23 months) 50.0 47.0 59.0 78.0 82.0 80.0 83.0 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 105.9 97.0 87.6 79.6 72.2 70.7 69.3 Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) 138.4 125.6 112.1 100.5 90.0 87.9 85.9

Goal 5: Improve maternal health Adolescent fertility rate (births per 1,000 women ages 15-19) 83.1 65.6 47.8 34.8 28.7 28.0 .. Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total) .. .. .. 31.0 .. 43.0 .. Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49) 14.5 17.8 .. .. .. Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births) 490.0 440.0 380.0 310.0 260.0 .. .. Pregnant women receiving prenatal care (%) .. .. .. 36.0 .. .. .. Unmet need for contraception (% of married women ages 15-49) .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases Children with fever receiving antimalarial drugs (% of children under age 5 with

fever) .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Condom use, population ages 15-24, female (% of females ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Condom use, population ages 15-24, male (% of males ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people) 231.0 231.0 231.0 231.0 231.0 231.0 231.0 Prevalence of HIV, female (% ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. .. .. 0.1 Prevalence of HIV, male (% ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. .. .. 0.1 Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Tuberculosis case detection rate (%, all forms) 61.0 4.5 3.3 39.0 66.0 65.0 65.0

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability CO2 emissions (kg per PPP $ of GDP) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 .. .. CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 .. .. Forest area (% of land area) 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 .. Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 26.8 32.2 37.4 42.4 47.3 47.4 .. Improved water source (% of population with access) 85.3 86.8 88.3 89.7 91.2 91.4 .. Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters) 0.5 1.8 19.8 1.8 23.1 .. 30.3 Net ODA received per capita (current US$) 10.1 6.5 4.9 10.2 17.4 19.9 ..

Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development Debt service (PPG and IMF only, % of exports of goods, services and primary

income) 22.9 24.5 20.8 10.1 11.5 7.9 ..

Internet users (per 100 people) 0.0 0.0 .. 6.3 8.0 9.0 10.0

Annexes 39


Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.1 57.1 61.6 66.8 Telephone lines (per 100 people) 0.8 1.7 2.1 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.2 Fertility rate, total (births per woman) 6.0 5.4 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.3 ..

Other GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 410.0 470.0 470.0 710.0 1,060.0 1,140.0 1,260.0 GNI, Atlas method (current US$) (billions) 45.5 59.8 67.7 113.0 184.1 200.4 225.1 Gross capital formation (% of GDP) 18.9 18.5 17.2 19.1 15.8 14.1 14.9 Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 61.2 62.6 63.9 65.2 66.1 66.3 Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above) .. .. .. 49.9 .. .. .. Population, total (millions) 111.1 126.7 143.8 158.0 173.1 176.2 179.2 Trade (% of GDP) 38.9 36.1 28.1 35.3 32.9 32.9 32.6

Source: World Development Indicators as of February 2014

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Cover Sheet - World Banklnweb90.worldbank.org/.../$file/Pakistan_2010-2014_CPSCRR_87715.pdf · (ii) improving human development and social protection; ... The global recession,